Best Picture Quick Take

Jeff Wells went down the Best Picture rabbit hole, riffing on Guy Lodge’s piece at In Contention.

The movies Guy has chosen as the best bets — he stipulates that this is mostly just for fun — are:

The Artist
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Tree of Life
War Horse

I think it’s a pretty good, for the most part, though I’m firmly against the notion of choosing films as best bets before they’ve been seen. After twelve years of this I know without a shred of doubt that you can’t count your chickens before they hatched. Oh, if only you could. So many great projects would be Best Picture winners. Usually, a Best Picture winner, or even a nominee, comes not out of its designated ambition of being such, but of its own greatness. One hopes, anyway. The Artist and Tree of Life are the only two that can be considered at this point because they’ve been seen. The only film I think right now that is a sure bet is Woody’s Midnight in Paris.

Tinker, Tailor is a risky pick – as risky as Tree of Life. But hey, I’m all about risky choices so why not? Jeff Wells adds this to the debate:

Nobody knows anything but I say “no” to The Artist (too French) and The Tree of Life (too Malicky). My Best Picture guesstimates: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (highly affecting emotional current), The Descendants (quality death-in-a-family film), The Iron Lady (obligatory British-ruling-class entry), Moneyball (professional baseball meets Social Network-like approach), War Horse (poor sad traumatized horse), We Bought A Zoo (another family film) and possibly The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo…depending how extreme Fincher goes and what kind of a hit it becomes. Yes, seven nominations. Or six.

I’d definitely fall more into Jeff’s line of thinking here. He’s right on the money with the Fincher (as a possible nominee), The Iron Lady, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (unless it’s terrible). I am still hoping it’s a year where they spit out ten nominees. They are not so esoteric that they would choose Tree of Life and Tinker, Tailor over such clear money making potentials as Dragon Tatoo, etc.

Tree of Life has a problem because it was never, unlike, say, The Thin Red Line, really praised to high heaven by the critics. When it finally dropped here in the states it was treated as kind of an afterthought. Had it gotten the kind of straight A reception from the critics it would be an easy get. Still, what it has going for it is that it isn’t a number 2 or 3 – it’s a number one or nothing. So that means it is not a film you can write off. It will depend, of course, on how the Big Oscar Movies do. But Best Picture can’t be determined or even discussed seriously until Venice, Telluride and most importantly, Toronto.

But if I had to spitball it right now — it would be like pissing in the wind. However, if I must — I’d go:

War Horse
Midnight in Paris
Extremely Loud, Incredibly Close
The Descendants (I’m hoping it’s up to the quality of Sideways)
Dragon Tattoo
A Dangerous Method (get with the program, Academy – there’s this great director, his name is David Cronenberg)
Moneyball
The Ides of March
Hugo

Not ruling out (because I’m hoping still for ten nominees):
Contagion
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II
Tree of Life has to be considered because it, among all of them, will be the only true art film.  Its biggest problem is its god-infused ending.

Final note: The Weinstein Factor – it seems highly unlikely the Weinsteins will not have a dog in this pony show but I don’t think it’s going to be W.E. (nobody likes Madonna doing anything but singing and dancing) so a seat must be saved for them.