Settling Scores: Harry Potter and the Giddy Critics

Lord Voldemort’s days are numbered — and those numbers could add up to Oscar-worthy critics scores. Two of Awards Daily’s comment crew have embarked on ambitious number-crunching projects to chart how the BP nomination prospects for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows stack up with the astronomically high ratings its been getting from critics.

Numbers are still in flux, but here’s a summary of HP8’s critics ranking as of July 15:

• 87 – Metacritic
  
• 97 – Rotten Tomatoes
  
• 100 – Rotten Tomatoes Top Critics
  
• 91 – Broadcast Film Critics Association

phantom explains his analysis at his website, awardscorner:

What do  these scores mean compared to recent best picture winners/nominees ?  Hint : it not only looks nomination-worthy based on these numbers, (on paper) it could even win…(probably won’t). For now, I think it will be similar to Toy Story 3 : rave reviews + stunning Box Office + last chapter-factor, but the Academy still might not be able to take it seriously enough to consider it for the ‘big one’. For what it’s worth, the film received excellent – almost identical – scores compared to The Return of the King…and that’s definitely a great start.

• better RT-score than 9 out of the last 10 best picture winners (beats 90%)
• better RTT-score than 10 out of the last 10 best picture winners (beats 100 %)
• better MC-score than 6 out of the last 10 best picture winners (beats 60 %)
• better BFCA-score than 7 out of the last 10 best picture winners (equal score with 1 film) (beats 70%)

• better RT-score than 54 of the last 60 (last 10 years) best picture nominees (beats 85%, equals 5%)
• better RTT-score than 60 of the last 60 (last 10) best picture nominees (beats 90%, equals 10%)
• better MC-score than 42 of the last 60 (last 10 years) best picture nominees  (beats 68%, equals 2%)
• better BFCA-score than 53 of the last 60 (last 10) best picture nominees (beats 77%, equals 10%)

phantom has laid out a great chart to show us how these numbers played out for BP nominees going back as far as 2001.

AD reader j looks at the critics scores for 3 of the most significant film in the first half of 2011 in relation to corresponding scores of Best Picture nominees from the pat 2 years.  (the rankings are based on averaging the Metacritic, Broadcast Film Critics, and Rotten Tomatoes scores)

For fun, taking Ziyad’s charts for comparison thus far, with some changes in criteria, MC/BFCA/RT avg.

2010

The Social Network: 95/95/92.5=94.2
Toy Story 3: 92/97/86.5=91.8
The King’s Speech: 88/97/89=91.3
~> Deathly Hallows 2: 86/95/85=88.7
Winter’s Bone: 90/85/82=85.7
127 Hours: 82/90/84.5=85.5
True Grit: 80/91/83.5=84.8
The Kids Are Alright: 86/85/80=83.7
Black Swan: 78/89/82.5=83.5
~> Midnight in Paris: 81/85/81=82.3
The Fighter: 78/89/80=82.3
~> Tree of Life: 85/78/82.5=81.8
Inception: 74/94/77=81.7

2009

Up 100/88/84.5=90.8
The Hurt Locker 93/94/83 (Seems weirdly low.)=90
~> Deathly Hallows 2: 86/95/85=88.7
Up in the Air 97/83/80.5=86.8
An Education 95/85/78.5=86.2
Avatar 89/84/75=82.7
Precious 89/79/79.5=82.5
~> Midnight in Paris: 81/85/81=82.3
~> Tree of Life: 85/78/82.5=81.8
District 87/81/76.5=81.5
Serious 86/79/78=81
Tree of Life: 85/78/82.5=81.8
Inglourious Basterds 91/69/73=77
Blind 85/53/62=66.666 (Evil)