Golden Globes Preview

It really doesn’t seem like a whole year went by since the Golden Globes announced their nominees last year. One thing is pretty clear, though. With ten Oscar nominees for Best Picture it isn’t hard to find match-ups in the drama category from the Globes. Last year and the year before, in fact, all five drama nominees went on to be nominated for the Oscar. But before that, it was harder to get a perfect five in drama. THere were always one or two, sometimes three that got the Globe nod but didn’t go on to get an Oscar nod. As of tomorrow morning we will have three large-ish groups to compare Best Picture – the BFCA, the SAG and the Globe. I’d like to throw in the AFI but their selection committee is so small it’s hard to count them.

By the numbers — the BFCA is around 200, or thereabouts. The Globe are around 100, or thereabouts. SAG is bigger, at 2100. The things they have in common is that they all pick acting nominations. The BFCA and the Globe also pick director, screenplay and picture — but we also have the Producers Guild, the Writers Guild and the Directors Guild coming up to really put the contenders in perspective. Up to now, we’ve mostly been dealing with critics. Last year’s results very nearly knocked the critics out of the picture completely. I get the feeling this year they mean a lot less than they ever have since I’ve been watching Oscar, going on 13 years now.

Still, the other big thing the Critics Choice, the SAG and the Globes have in common is that their award show is televised. Of these. the SAGs and the Globes are watched way more than the Critics Choice, but still, any time you have a camera op you have your best chance to get a leg up on the other contenders, should you get a turn at the mic. There are ways to play them well (Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep) and ways to bomb out (Jim Cameron, Jason Reitman). It’s horrible to have to admit these things about human nature but the fact of it is this: when voters bestow upon you their award they expect gratitude, humility, or if you can’t muster any of those things be funny, really funny. It doesn’t always win you the Oscar, being great at the mic, but it can derail your chances. The last you want to be is annoyed, arrogant, entitled, indifferent. There are a few people to whom this simply does not apply: Joel and Ethan Coen who could basically take a joint crap on stage and it wouldn’t matter, Woody Allen, Daniel Day Lewis, etc. But most performers or filmmakers aren’t anywhere near that level. Even someone like Sally Field back in the day, or Jodie Foster had to basically grovel. It is like when you are visiting a native village and the peoples offer you their most deeply felt traditional foods — even if it’s eyeballs soaked in rabbit entrails you have to be grateful, humbled and appreciative.

So, the Globes, the Critics Choice, the SAGs are all places to do that. You want people to want you to win. Otherwise, you waste everyone’s time. At any rate, how do we think the Globes are going to shake down this year? To tell you the truth, I have no clue. This year, the awards have been all over the map. There is no there there. We can be sure of a few things, though. Bridesmaids will be on the comedy list. War Horse, Loud and Close, Moneyball, Hugo will be in drama, I figure.

So herewith, my predictions that I fully expect to be wrong. I can only go with what I know, of course.

Best Picture – Drama
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse
The Descendants
Alt. Tree of Life

Best Picture – Comedy
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
Crazy Stupid Love
My Week with Marilyn
Alt. Footloose

Actor – Drama
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
George Clooney, The Descendants
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Leo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Woody Harrelson, Rampart
Alt. Michael Fassbender, Shame

Actor – Comedy
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Steve Carrel, Crazy Stupid Love
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
Ewan McGregor, Beginners
Johnny Depp, Pirates

Actress – Drama
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Alt. Ellen Barkin, Another Happy Day

Actress – Comedy
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Emma Stone, Crazy Stupid Love
Julia Roberts, Larry Crowne
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Supporting actor–
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Albert Brooks, Drive
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Alt: Patton Oswalt, Young Adult

Supporting Actress–
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Bernice Bejo, The Artist
alt. Sandra Bullock, Loud and Close

Screenplay
Moneyball
The Descendants
Extremely Loud
The Artist
Midnight in Paris

Director
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar

That’s as far as I’m going to take it. And you?

OUR GLOBES BEST PICTURE COMPARISON CHART HERE