SAG Award Nominations Preview

There seem to be three things that drive the actors to choose performances for the SAG awards, which will announce tomorrow bright and early, 6am Pacific – Performance, popularity, notoriety/reputation. The big question for tomorrow will be whether voters will choose some of the wild cars that haven’t been showing up lately – Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, specifically, but also Woody Harrelson in Rampart, Kevin Spacey in Margin Call, Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and on and on or whether they will stick fairly close to what we’ve been seeing.  Extremely Loud and Dragon Tattoo remain the unknown factor in all respects.

Either way, I feel like I’m more in the dark this year about what they’d choose than I ever have been. Since so many movies opened late you have to wonder how it will all shake down. Will this be a year when Oscar and SAG match up well? Or will this be a year when they don’t?

Before it gets too late I suppose I’ll try to predict how it will go. I start with what I know for sure and work my way down. But I do remember that there is an aspect to the SAG Awards that’s like the BFCAs, the Globes and the Oscars: they like pretty people on their red carpets and coming to their show.

So herewith, my predictions–

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Alt: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs (I think the actors will get it)
Viola Davis, The Help
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Alt: Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Alt. Brad Pitt, Tree of Life

Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain, Tree of Life
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Alt. Judi Dench, J. Edgar

Ensemble
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
J. Edgar
The Descendants
Alt: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

If course, I want to also add Coriolanus, Tree of Life, Harry Potter, My Week with Marilyn, Bridesmaids all as possible ensemble nods.

I am just not really getting a clear read on anything right now in the race. But the picture should be somewhat clearer after this week.