BAFTA Long List, Asterisks, How to Measure

Looking at last year’s list, the asterisk means around 3/4 for the time that name will result in a nomination. I looked back at what got an asterisk last year and the year before and what went on to get nominated.  Oscar heat seems to make the difference that can push a contender into a nomination with no asterisk next to his or her name.  I then will include the BAFTA long list with just the asterisks.  I’ll leave it to you to figure out who will make it and who will get bumped.

Here is how it went down last year.

Best FILM:
Black Swan (*director)
Inception (*director)
The King’s Speech (*director)
The Social Network (*director)
True Grit
4/5 – 127 Hours had the asterisk instead of True Grit.

Best DIRECTOR
Black Swan (*director)
Inception (*director)
The King’s Speech (*director)
The Social Network (*director)
127 Hours (*director)
5/5

Best ACTOR
Jarvier Bardem – Biutiful (*actor)
Jeff Bridges – True Grit (*actor)
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network (*actor)
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (*actor)
James Franco – 127 Hours (*actor)
5/5

LEADING ACTRESS
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right (*actress)
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right (*actress)
Natalie Portman – Black Swan (*actress)
Noomi Rapace – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
3/5

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Fighter (* S Actor)
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network (* S Actor)
Pete Postlethwaite – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right (* S Actor)
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech (* S Actor)
4/5

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Fighter (* S. actress)
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech (* S. actress)
Barbara Hershey – Black Swan (* S. actress)
Lesley Manville – Another Year (* S. actress)
Miranda Richardson – Made in Dagenham (* S. actress)

The year prior:

Avatar (* for director)
An Education (* for director)
The Hurt Locker (* for director)
Precious
Up in the Air
3/5 – A Prophet and District 9 had asterisks instead

James Cameron (Avatar)*
Neill Blomkamp (District 9)*
Lone Scherfig (An Education)*
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)*
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
4/5 (A Prophet had an asterisk instead of Basterds)

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)*
Colin Firth (A Single Man)*
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)*
Andy Serkis (Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll)*
4/5 Morgan Freeman has the asterisk, got dumped in favor of the Oscar-bound Bridges.

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Audrey Tautou (Coco Before Chanel)
4/5 –  Tautou took Abbie Cornish’s spot

So therefore, from today’s long list we can deduce that the nominees will be, more or less, give or take:

Best Film
The Artist*
Drive*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
We Need to Talk About Kevin*
(going by director)

Leading Actor

Brad Pitt (Billy Beane) – Moneyball*
Gary Oldman (George Smiley) – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
George Clooney (Matt King) – The Descendants*
Jean Dujardin (George Valentin) – The Artist*
Michael Fassbender (Brandon) – Shame*

Leading Actress
Bérénice Bejo (Peppy Miller) – The Artist*
Meryl Streep (Margaret Thatcher) – The Iron Lady*
Michelle Williams (Marilyn Monroe) – My Week with Marilyn*
Tilda Swinton (Eva) – We Need to Talk About Kevin*
Viola Davis (Aibileen Clark) – The Help*

Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer (Hal) – Beginners*
Eddie Marsan (James) – Tyrannosaur*
Jonah Hill (Peter Brand) – Moneyball*
Kenneth Branagh (Sir Laurence Olivier) – My Week with Marilyn*
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Paul Zara) – The Ides of March*

Supporting Actress
Bryce Dallas Howard (Hilly Holbrook) – The Help*
Jessica Chastain (Celia Foote) – The Help*
Judi Dench (Dame Sybil Thorndike) – My Week with Marilyn*
Melissa McCarthy (Megan) – Bridesmaids*
Octavia Spencer (Minny Jackson) – The Help*
Zoe Wanamaker (Paula Strasberg) – My Week with Marilyn*

Director
The Artist*
Drive*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
We Need to Talk About Kevin*

Original Screenplay

The Artist*
Bridesmaids*
The Guard*
Midnight in Paris*
Young Adult*

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants*
The Help*
The Ides of March*
Moneyball*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

Cinematography
The Artist*
Drive*
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*

Editing
The Artist*
Drive*
Hugo*
Senna*
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy*

Production Design

The Artist*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
War Horse*

Make Up & Hair
The Artist*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
The Iron Lady*
My Week with Marilyn*

Costume Design
Anonymous*
The Artist*
Hugo*
Jane Eyre*
My Week with Marilyn*

Sound
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
War Horse*

Special Visual Effects
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2*
Hugo*
Rise of the Planet of the Apes*
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*

Original Music
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
The Artist*
Hugo*
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy*
War Horse*

Documentary
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Life in a Day
Pina
Project Nim
Senna

Animated Film
The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn*
Arthur Christmas*
Rango*

We will compare our list with the nominees to see how the asterisks fare.