Best Picture and the Bridesmaids – Can the Guilds Push it Through?

Last week I was semi slapped down by Variety’s Peter Debruge for underestimating the Best Picture potential of Bridesmaids.  He wasn’t referring specifically to me but all of “my kind.” You know, the bottom-feeding Oscar bloggers that respectable journalists are mostly too embarrassed to admit that they read, god forbid, or converse with?  Oscar bloggers are rated even lower than fanboy bloggers, it seems, as that demographic has been promoted to “film critic.” But Oscar blogger continues to twist in the wind, the one person you never want to be seen with on the prison yard.

Nonetheless, the non-Oscar blogging journalists continue to either write about the Oscars because they want to, or they’re forced to write about them because they have to.  Either way, once they step on my turf I am involved already. My neck tatts back that up.  I think DeBruge thought that he was the only one who ever thought seriously about Bridesmaids.

With the guilds announcing, I can feel his “I told you so” sagging in the sky like a raincloud.  Any minute it will drop.  “I don’t want to get into an argument,” he said once on Twitter, when I started in with my own rationalizing about Bridesmaids.  Arguing with an Oscar blogger about movies must feel a bit like arguing with a prostitute about politics; sooner or later you’re going to come around to thinking, “what the hell does she know?”  The new go-to phrase from those I’m debating films with on Twitter is “stick to the Oscars.”    Okay. I will.  And next time you want a pack of cigarettes or a copy of Hustler don’t come running to me.

But what Debruge didn’t know, perhaps, wasn’t so much that we were “forgetting” about Bridesmaids — you have one of the best Oscar publicists in the business on that movie — do you really think that in a million years we wouldn’t know that Bridesmaids had Best Picture intentions?  But it’s a tough sell since they no longer have ten slots open.

The Academy changed the rules so that anywhere from 5 to 9 can be nominated.  They said they did their own research going back ten years to see how many nominations there might have been for Best Picture in any given year. They came up with a different number each time.  Some years there were 6 and some years there were 8 and 9 and even 5.  We don’t know how it’s going to go. But what we do know is that the Oscars aren’t voting like the guilds are voting. They are using a preferential ballot (I am pretty sure the PGA employs the same practice).  And in this new way you have to get around 60 number one votes to make it to the second round — and then after that, 250 votes total to be nominee. At least I think that’s how it’s going to go.

Now we are back to squeezing a whole lot of stuff into a few tiny holes.  And in that case, it’s hard to see Bridesmaids making it.  The main reason, of course, is that the Academy not only has a long tradition of only nominating dramedies – movies that take you to extreme laughter and then to extreme tears (Terms of Endearment, Little Miss Sunshine, etc.) Some of the best comedies ever made weren’t nominated for Best Picture.  Satire is something that died along with surreality and vulgarity back in the 1970s.  Comedy is one thing, but an out and out vulgar comedy a whole other thing.  So now we’re not just dealing with it being a comedy but we’re dealing with “I love my new bleached asshole!” Worse than that, we’re dealing with that overlong dedication at the mic scene, and the taking the bite of the cookie scene and all of the outlandish, very funny comedy set pieces that, trust me, just ain’t Oscar’s thing.  But never say never.

It’s funny, by god.  It’s well acted, especially by Melissa McCarthy. And well written.  It has the beloved Jill Clayburgh in it.  It has moments of true sentiment and heartache.  Content-wise, there is nothing about it that makes it a viable Best Picture when you look at Oscar’s past.  No one on Bridesmaids ever thought to themselves, “hey let’s make a movie for Oscar.” If they had, it would have been terrible. As it is, they were trying to show (with Judd Apatow leading the way because of course you know in Hollywood you can’t really make this kind of thing happen without a guy like that) that women can be every bit as funny and raunchy as men: the female Hangover.  Except that Bridesmaids is a lot better than The Hangover (although I have a soft spot for that movie).  In every way it’s better.

The money is something to celebrate, especially this year.  Bridesmaids is an original screenplay that appealed to varying types of men and women of all different ages.  It isn’t a branded sequel, nor an effects-driven kind of thing.  It is just a movie with actors.  And we know how much the Academy likes that.  That Bridesmaids and The Help both made the top twenty at the box office — each making around $160 million — is practically a miracle.  And lest we forget that both movies deal with actual excrement.  Coincidence?

But the thing that is probably making people stand up and take notice is that Bridesmaids is one of very few movies to hit all of the guilds up to now. Granted, that’s only three. But the SAG and the PGA is fairly significant. I’d say even the ADG kind of, sort of means something. The SAG is the really big one, of course, because it means the actors are squarely behind it — even more than Hugo or War Horse.

The other films to hit all three guilds so far, The Descendants, The Help and The Artist.  Bridesmaids will no doubt hit the WGA tomorrow, too.  And though it seems a bit premature to say so, but Kristen Wiig could most definitely be up for an Oscar for screenplay – and hell, she might even win.  If Diablo Cody can win one why can’t Wiig?

But she’ll have to go up against Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist and Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris.  Bleached asshole versus Gertrude Stein and silent movies. Hey, stranger things have happened. There is nothing wrong with bleached assholes, is there? I wouldn’t mind having my own bleached except they don’t let you do that sort of thing in prison.

What Wiig has in her favor is that she’s a she.  And there ain’t a lot of those this year in any category.  We’re all pinning our hopes on Lynne Ramsay maybe getting in there for We Need to Talk About Kevin but in almost every other major category — writing, directing and producing, it’s all dudes.

So here’s the thing. More power to Bridesmaids.  If the Academy is at last ready to embrace comedy I’m sure the world over would cheer them on.

Meanwhile, you might want to look at the research I did a while back trying to find out what the Academy might have discovered when it conducted its own test on the last ten years to find its random number of Best Picture nominees.  And here were my best guesses.

2001
A Beautiful Mind (4 wins – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Screenplay; 4 more nominations – Actor, Editing, Makeup, Score)
Fellowship of the Ring (4 wins – Cinematography, Effects, Makeup, Music; 9 more nominations – Screenplay, Sound, Picture, Music, Editing, Director, Costume, Art Direction, Actor)
Gosford Park(1 win – Screenplay; 6 other nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction, Costume, 2 Supporting Actress nods)
Moulin Rouge (2 wins – Art Direction, Costume; 6 more nominations – Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Makeup, Picture, Sound)
In the Bedroom (0 wins; 5 nominations – Picture, Screenplay, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress)

Would have been contenders:
Black Hawk Down (DGA, WGA, CAS, Ace-WON, ADG) 2 wins – Sound and Editing; 4 more Oscar nominations -Best Director, Cinematography.
Amelie (ASC, ADG)- 5 Oscar nominations, Screenplay, Sound, Foreign Lang, Cinematography, Art Direction

Other films that sort of seem like maybe — David Lynch’s Mulholland Drive (but with only one Oscar nomination for Director, probably not), Memento — only editing and screenplay. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone with three techs – Art Direction, Costume, Music.

But I think only two movies might have ultimately pushed through — so my guess for 2001: 7 Best Picture nominees.

2002
Chicago (6 wins – Picture, Supporting Actress, Editing, Costume, Art Direction, Sound; 7 more nominations – Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Director, Song, Screenplay)
Gangs of New York (0 wins; 10 nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Actor, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume, Song, Sound)
The Hours (1 Oscar win – Actress; 8 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Costume, Score)
LOTR: Two Towers (2 wins – Sound Editing, Effects; 4 more nominations – Picture, Editing, Sound, Art Direction)
The Pianist (3 wins – Director, Screenplay, Actor; 4 more nominations – Picture, Editing, Cinematography, Costume)

Could have been contenders:
Road to Perdition (PGA/CDG/ASC) 1 Oscar win – Cinematography; 5 more nominations -Actor, Art Direction, Score, Sound, Sound Editing)
Adaptation (PGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE) 1 Oscar win – Chris Cooper; 3 more nominations – Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay
About Schmidt (Globes/WGA/ACE/CDG) 2 Oscar nominations – Actor, Supporting Actress
Far From Heaven (ASC/SAG(2)/WGA) – 4 Oscar nominations – Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, Score

My Big Fat Greek Wedding (PGA/WGA/ACE nominee)

Since there was never ten, this seems to be a good candidate for the year of 9. I’ll guess either Greek Wedding or Far From Heaven failed to make the cut.

My guess for 2002: 9 nominees for Best Picture

2003
Return of the King – (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG) 11 wins – clean sweep – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound, Score, Song, Makeup, Costume, Art Direction
Lost in Translation (DGA/ACE/ADG) 1 win – Screenplay; 3 more nominations – Picture, Director, Actor
Seabiscuit – (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 0 wins; 7 nominations – Picture, Screenplay, Editing, Sound, Costume, Cinematography, Art Direction
Master and Commander (Globes/PGA/ACE/ASC) 2 wins – Cinematography, Sound Editing; 8 more nominations – Picture, Director, Editing, Art Direction, Costume, Makeup, Sound, Visual Effects
Mystic River – (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 2 wins – Actor, Supporting Actor; 4 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress

Could Have Been Contenders:
Cold Mountain (Globes/PGA/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG) 1 win – Supporting Actress; 6 more nominations – Actor Editing, Song, Score, Song, Cinematography
City of God 4 nominations – Director, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography

Last Samurai (PGA/ASC/ADG) – 4 nominations – Supporting Actor, Art Direction, Costume, Sound

My guess is that City of God, Cold Mountain and maybe Last Samurai would squeezed in and that for 2003 there would have been 6 Best Picture nominees.

2004
Million Dollar Baby (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 4 wins – Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Director; 3 more nominations – Screenplay, Actor, Editing
The Aviator (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG) – 5 Oscar wins – Supporting Actress, Editing, Costume, Cinematography, Art Direction; 6 more nominations – Picture, Screenplay, Directing, Supporting Actor, Actor, Sound
Finding Neverland (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/ADG) 1 win – Score; 6 more nominations – Picture, Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Costume, Art Direction
Ray (Globes/DGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/CDG/ASC) 2 wins – Actor, Sound; 4 more nominations – Picture, Directing, Editing, Costume
Sideways (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG/ACE) 1 win – Screenplay; 4 more nominations – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor

Eternal Sunshine (Globes/WGA/ACE/CDG/ADG) – 1 win – Screenplay; 1 more nomination – Actress
Vera Drake – 3 nominations – Director, Actress, Screenplay
Hotel Rwanda (Globes/SAG ensemble/WGA/CDG/ADG) – 3 nominations – Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay

So I’m going to guess that all three of these would have made it – and so for 2004 I say 8

2005
Crash (PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ADG) 3 wins – Picture, Screenplay, Editing; 3 more nominations – Directing, Song, Supporting Actor.
Brokeback Mountain (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/ACE/ASC) 3 wins – Director, Screenplay, Score; 5 more nominations – Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography
Capote (PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/WGA/CDG) 1 win – Actor; 4 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
Good Night, and Good Luck (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG/WGA/ACE/CDG/ASC/ADG)
Munich (DGA/ACE) 5 nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Score

Walk the Line (Globes/PGA/ACE/CDG/ADG)1 win – Actress; 4 more nominations – Actor, Editing, Sound, Costume
The Constant Gardener (Globes/WGA/ADG) 1 win – Supporting Actress; 3 more nominations – Screenplay, Editing, Score
Memoirs of a Geisha (ASC/ADG) 3 wins – Cinematography, Costume, Art Direction; 3 more nominations – Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Score

I don’t think, in the end, Geisha would have made it. It’s possible. But the pattern that emerges is that the heart of the Academy is Directing, Screenplay, Editing. We already knew that. But I do think that Walk the Line and The Constant Gardener could have.

So my guess for 2005 is 7 Best Picture nominees

2006
The Departed (Globes/PGA/WGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/BAFTA/ACE/ADG) 4 wins – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing; 1 more nomination – Supporting Actor
Babel (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/Sag ensemble?BAFTA/ACE/CDG/ADG/CAS) 1 win – score; 6 more nominations – Directing, Editing, Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Score
Letters from Iwo Jima (Globes) 1 win – Sound Editing; 3 more nominations – Picture, Directing, Screenplay
Little Miss Sunshine (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble/BAFTA/ACE/CDG) – 2 wins – Supporting Actor, Screenplay – 2 more nominations – Picture, Supporting Actress
The Queen (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/BAFTA/Eddie/CDG/ADG)

Dreamgirls (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/CDG/ADG/CAS) 2 wins – Supporting Actress, Sound; 6 more nominations – Supporting Actor, Song, Song, Song, Costume, Art Direction
Pan’s Labyrinth (CDG) 3 wins – Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup; 3 more nominations Screenplay, Foreign Film, Score

I’m fairly certain that Dreamgirls would have made the cut. Going to throw in Pan’s Labyrinth because clearly they loved that movie. So for 2006 my guess is also 7 Best Picture nominees.

2007
No Country for Old Men (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG enemble/WGA/ASC/ADG/BAFTA/CAS/) 4 wins – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor; 4 more nominations – Sound, Sound Editing, Editing, Cinematography
Michael Clayton (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAGx3/ACE/ADG/1 win – Supporting Actress; 6 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Score
There Will Be Blood (Globes/PGA/DGA/SAG+1/WGA/ACE/ADG/BAFTA/2 wins – Actor, Cinematography; 6 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Sound Editing, Art Direction
Atonement (Globes/BAFTA/ADG/CDG) 1 win – Score; 6 more nominations – Picture, Actress, Screenplay, Costume, Cinematography, Art Direction
Juno (Globes/PGA/SAG+1/ACE/) 1 win – Screenplay; 3 more nominations – Picture, Actress, Directing

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/ASC/ADG/CDG) 4 nominations – Directing, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography
Ratatouille (ACE/ADG)- 1 win, 4 more nominations – Screenplay, Sound, Sound Editing, Score

This is a tough call. It’s possible Ratatouille could have made the cut. But I’m more sure Diving Bell would be in there. So I’m going to guess that for 2007 there would have been 6 Best Picture nominees.

2008
Slumdog Millionaire (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG Ensemble/ACE/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/CAS 8 wins – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Editing, Sound, Score, Cinematography, Song; 2 more nominations – Song, Sound Editing
Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Globes/PGA/DGA/WGA/SAG Ensemble/ACE/ASC/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/2 wins – Visual Effects, Makeup, Art Direction; 10 more nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Sound, Score,Costume, Cinematography
Frost/Nixon (Globes/DGA/WGA/PGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/ADG/BAFTA) 5 nominations – Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Editing
Milk (Globes/DGA/WGA/SAG ensemble/ACE/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/2 wins – Actor, Screenplay; 6 more nominations – Picture Director, Supporting Actor, Editing, Score, Costume Design
The Reader (Globes/SAG+1/ASC) 1 win – Actress; 4 more nominations – Picture, Directing, Screenplay, Cinematography

The Dark Knight (DGA/WGA/SAG+1/ACE/ASC/ADG/BAFTA/CDG/CAS/2 wins – Supporting Actor, Sound Editing; 6 more nominations – Art Direction, Cinematography, Editing, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects
Wall-E (ACE/ADG/1 win – Animated Feature; 5 more nominations – Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound mixing, Song, Score

Wall-E is a tempting choice. You could probably get seven out of that. You could maybe add Doubt. But I feel like The Dark Knight was really and truly pushing through, like Dreamgirls. This is why I think 2008 would have had 6 Best Picture nominees.