Golden Globe Preview and Predictions

It’s that time of year again for the Golden Globes. Don’t forget to enter our contest.

We are now in the awkward position of defending the HFPA as being the last major awards group that gave Best Picture to The Social Network before it hit the Producers Guild. The opposite scenario happened the year prior when Avatar won the Globe before The Hurt Locker won the Producers Guild and and on and on it went. This year, most are expecting The Artist to win everything, so naturally that means it should clean up in the Globes (it only has to win in Comedy, which is like Tiger Woods playing miniature golf). We still don’t know if the year will offer up surprises or if it will go as planned. The trick is not minding. I did thoroughly enjoy this slate piece In Praise of the Golden Globes. It really is true that, despite the complaining people do about the Globes, their choices tend to fare better over time. This year, there are no bad films in the lineup in the drama category – so it feels like a win/win – if it’s The Descendants, how great would that be? If it’s Moneyball or Hugo? How can anyone complain? With those nominees they really can’t go wrong. I am predicting Hugo to win but the majority over at Gold Derby are predicting The Descendants.

We’re not quite at the point where everything screeches to a halt. That part is still to come when the Producers Guild give you a better idea of where the race might be headed. The Globes, I’ve come to find, is a celebration onto itself. It can be a test run for Oscar, just as the Critics Choice was, to see whether the win felt right to you or whether it felt really wrong. For instance, it was just plain bad timing for the BFCAs to show that Scorsese clip, feel the love of that director in the room and then watch him lose the Critics Choice to poor Hazanavicius who had to take the stage nonetheless. The same sort of thing happened when Kathryn Bigelow was doing the impossible by winning everything but then we had to watch her lose at the Globes to Jim Cameron. That was a wrong that needed to be fixed. I don’t expect the same scenario to play out with the Artist — obviously that is your clear running horse at the moment. It isn’t quite lighting the box office the same way The King’s Speech did. The Artist’s biggest problem is that people don’t want to see it. But the awards race should mostly turn that around. If it keeps up this way, though, box office actually might be a part of the discussion for the first time in a while. If The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is nominated for Best Picture (we still don’t yet know how that last-minute surprise will play out) The Artist will have to beat two Best Picture nominees with killer box office; Dragon Tattoo is zooming towards $100 mil with no signs of slowing down and The Help went all the way to $165 mil. At a time when American box office is in deep shit this might be a point of consideration. But we’re not quite there yet. We’re still back here at the Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs miniature golf fairway.

So let’s go through it, shall we?

Best Picture

The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides
Moneyball
War Horse

It seems crazy anything should win here except The Descendants.  As you all know, I’m an inclined towards Hugo, as  I feel it is a masterpiece  that goes beyond what any of the other films do.  The Descendants is a great one too.  I am torn. I think it will be The Descendants, but since everyone is predicting that already I might as well make it interesting for myself, stuck here in my cage as I am, and predict Hugo to win it.
General Consensus: The Descendants
Sasha’s prediction: Hugo

Best Picture Comedy or Musical
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight
My Week with Marilyn
Prediction and General Consensus: The Artist

Best Director
Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Over at Gold Derby the directors are in a tight race between Martin Scorsese and Michel Hazanavicius. I have to think that Hazanavicius has it sewn up but how do you not vote for Marty?  At any rate:
General Consensus: Split down the middle
Sasha’s prediction: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Actress, Drama
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Right now, except for Pete Hammond, Peter Travers and myself it’s Meryl Streep by a long way.
General Consensus: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Sasha’s prediction: Viola Davis, The Help

Best Actor, Drama
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
General Consensus and Sasha’s Prediction: George Clooney, The Descendants
I had a feeling Brad Pitt was going to take it but I just don’t see how they won’t reward George.

Best Actress Comedy or Musical
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage
General Consensus and Sasha’s Prediction: Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn (not a comedy but however you want to roll, Weinsteins!)

Best Actor Comedy or Musical
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
Joseph Gordon Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris
100% unanimous for Jean Dujardin for The Artist

Best Actor Supporting
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Most are saying Christopher Plummer has this, but there are a few Albert Brooks standouts. If Brooks couldn’t win the BFCAs, where Drive had such a strong showing, I have a hard time seeing him win here.  Plummer probably has it.
General Consensus and Sasha’s prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Actress Supporting
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain , The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
General consensus and Sasha’s Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Foreign Language Film
A Separation (Iran)
The Flowers Of War (China)
The Kid With The Bike (Belgium)
In The Land Of Blood and Honey (USA)
The Skin I Live In (Spain)
Foreign is kind of all over the place over at Gold Derby. I suspect they won’t send Angie home without seeing her take the stage.  But–
General Consensus: A Separation
Sasha’s prediction: In the Land of Blood and Honey

Best Animated Feature
TinTin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango
General Consensus and Sasha’s Prediction: Rango

Best Screenplay
Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash
Moneyball, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
General consensus and Sasha’s prediction: Midnight in Paris

Best Score
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
W.E., Abel Korzeniowski
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Hugo, Howard Shore
War Horse, John Williams
General consensus -but commonly held thinking is that The Artist has this one sewn up, as the score basically IS the script.
Sasha’s prediction: Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  because it takes film composing to such a new and interesting level, because it blows my mind every time I watch the film and listen to the score.

Best Original Song
“Hello Hello” – “Gnomeo & Juliet – Elton John
“Lay Your Head Down” – “Albert Nobbs” – Sinead O’Connor
“The Living Proof” – “The Help” – Mary J. Blige
“The Keeper” – “Machine Gun Preacher” – Gerard Butler
“Masterpiece” – “W.E.” – Madonna
General consensus – it’s all over the place with the edge given to Help Hello
Sasha’s prediction: The Living Proof — I think Madonna has a really good chance to score here, too, though.

Well, that happened.  Now let’s see what Sunday has in store.  As always, we hope for many surprises.   For Sunday, Ryan will be managing the site and I will be on twitter annoying people @awardsdaily. You can follow Ryan too on Twitter.