For the first time in probably their entire history, the DGA will announce their five nominees after the Oscar ballots have been turned in. That means that they can’t be counted to on as a “true north” this time. Some people don’t think they ever were but I have a feeling they lend legitimacy to an otherwise fringe contender. I could be wrong, of course.
The DGA membership is huge — 14, 500 members, where Oscar’s directing branch is much smaller, less than 500. That accounts for the disconnect between the DGA and Oscar most years. You can easily figure out three of the Best Director contenders this year. Right now, the hot three are:
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck Argo
It looks like the fourth name might be:
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
From there, you have one slot and three names:
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Wild cards: Michael Haneke, Amour; Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master, Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises (thanks, readers, I had forgotten him but you’re right…could sneak in there)
The truth is that I have no idea, nor does anyone else, what five names the thousands of DGA members will pick. My instinct is to go for David O. Russell because I really think Silver Linings Playbook is likable enough to get a large consensus vote like that. DGA ballots have a longer time to gestate than Oscar ballots so those members will have more time to see the later breaking films, like Zero Dark Thirty, Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty.
But that slot could go to any of these three. According to Anne Thompson, Life is Pi is popular with voters. Neither David O. Russell nor Tom Hooper are particularly well liked, not as well liked as Ang Lee and Quentin Tarantino, both of whom are beloved in the industry.
Finally, a twist: the Golden Globe hasn’t matched Oscar 5/5 for many years. I think it’s 1977 when last they matched 100%.
I will post my final predictions as we get closer to the date.
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
2012
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln | Steven Spielberg, Lincoln | ||
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty | Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty | ||
Ben Affleck, Argo | Ben Affleck, Argo | ||
Ang Lee, Life of Pi | Ang Lee, Life of Pi | ||
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook | Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained | ||
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables |
2011
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist* | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist | Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+ |
Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo | Martin Scorsese, Hugo* |
Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants | Alexander Payne, The Descendants* |
Stephen Daldry, Loud/Close | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris | Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris* |
Steven Spielberg, War Horse | George Clooney, Ides of March | David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | Terrence Malick, Tree of Life* |
Refn, Drive |
2010
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Tom Hooper The King’s Speech | Tom Hooper The King’s Speech | Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ | Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+ |
David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network | David Fincher, Social Network* |
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan | Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan* |
Danny Boyle, 127 Hours | David O’Russell, The Fighter | David O’Russell, The Fighter | David O’Russell, The Fighter* |
Christopher Nolan, Inception | Christopher Nolan, Inception | Christopher Nolan, Inception | |
The Coens, True Grit | The Coens, True Grit* |
2009
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker | Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ | Bigelow, Hurt Locker+ |
Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious* | Lee Daniels, Precious | Lee Daniels, Precious* |
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air | Jason Reitman, Up in the Air* |
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Clint Eastwood Invictus | Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds | Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds* |
Eastwood, Invictus | |||
Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar* | Jim Cameron, Avatar | Jim Cameron, Avatar* |
2008
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog | Danny Boyle, Slumdog+ |
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon | Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon* |
Gus Van Sant, Milk | Sam Mendes, RR | Gus Van Sant, Milk | Gus Van Sant, Milk* |
David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button* | David Fincher, Benjamin Button | David Fincher, Benjamin Button* |
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader* | Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight | Stephen Daldry, The Reader* |
2007
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ | Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+ |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Ridley Scott, American Gangster | Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Jason Reitman, Juno* |
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Joe Wright, Atonement* | Joe Wright, Atonement* | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd | Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
2006
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen | Stephen Frears, The Queen* |
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel* | |
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* | Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima* | |
Paul Greengrass, United 93 | Paul Greengrass, United 93 | Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine* | Paul Greengrass, United 93 |
Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ | Martin Scorsese, The Departed | Martin Scorsese, The Departed+ |
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls | Clint Eastwood Flags of Our Fathers | Bill Condon, Dreamgirls |
2005
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain* | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain | Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain * |
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck | George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck* |
Paul Haggis, Crash | Meirelles, Gardener | Paul Haggis, Crash | Paul Haggis, Crash+ |
Woody Allen, Match Point | |||
Ron Howard, Cinderella Man | Peter Jackson, King Kong | Bennett Miller, Capote | Bennett Miller, Capote* |
Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich * | Steven Spielberg, Munich | Steven Spielberg, Munich * |
2004
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways* | Alexander Payne for Sideways | Alexander Payne for Sideways* |
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator | Martin Scorsese for The Aviator* |
Taylor Hackford for Ray | Mike Nichols, Closer | Taylor Hackford for Ray | Taylor Hackford for Ray* |
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* | Mike Leigh for Vera Drake |
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby | Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+ |
2003
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation | Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation* |
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River | Clint Eastwood, Mystic River* |
Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK+ | Peter Jackson, ROTK | Peter Jackson, ROTK+ |
Tim Burton, Big Fish | Peter Weir, Master and Commander* | Peter Weir, Master and Commander | Peter Weir, Master and Commander* |
Jim Sheridan, In America | Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain | Gary Ross, Seabiscuit* | Fernando Merielles, City of God |
2002
BFCA | Globes | DGA | Oscar
Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York | Martin Scorsese* |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* | Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* | Pedro Almodovar |
Alexander Payne, About Schmidt | Roman Polanski, The Pianist | Roman Polanski* |
Spike Jonze, Adaptation | ||
Rob Marshall+ | Rob Marshall, Chicago | Rob Marshall+ |
Steven Daldry* | Steven Daldry, The Hours | Steven Daldry* |
2001
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind | Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+ |
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings | Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings | Peter Jackson, LOTR* |
Robert Altman, Gosford Park | Robert Altman, Gosford Park* | |
A.I. Artificial Intelligence Steven Spielberg | Christopher Nolan, Memento | Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down |
David Lynch, Mulholland Drive | Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down | David Lynch, Mulholland Drive |
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge* | Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge* |
2000
Globes | DGA | Oscar
István Szabó, Sunshine | Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous | Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot* |
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Ridley Scott, Gladiator | Ridley Scott, Gladiator | Ridley Scott, Gladiator+ |
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich | Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich | Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich * |
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic | Steven Soderbergh, Traffic* |
1999
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Neil Jordan, The End of the Affair | Frank Darabont, The Green Mile* | Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules* |
Anthony Minghella, The Talented Mr. Ripley | Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich | Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich |
Michael Mann, The Insider | Michael Mann, The Insider | Michael Mann, The Insider* |
Sam Mendes, American Beauty | Sam Mendes, American Beauty | Sam Mendes, American Beauty+ |
Norman Jewison,The Hurricane | M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense | M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense* |
1998
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Shekhar Kapur,Elizabeth | Peter Weir, Truman Show | Peter Weir, Truman Show |
Robert Redford,The Horse Whisperer | Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line | Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line |
John Madden, Shakes in Love | John Madden, Shakes in Love | John Madden, Shakes in Love* |
Steven Spielberg, SPR | Steven Spielberg, SPR | Steven Spielberg, SPR |
Peter Weir, The Truman Show | Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful | Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful |
1997
Globes | DGA | Oscar
James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets | James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets* | Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty* |
Steven Spielberg Amistad | Steven Spielberg Amistad | Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter |
Jim Sheridan, The Boxer | Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting | Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting* |
James Cameron, Titanic | James Cameron, Titanic | James Cameron, Titanic+ |
Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential | Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential | Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential* |
1996
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Alan Parker, Evita | Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire* | Milos Forman for The People vs. Larry Flynt |
Joel Coen, Fargo | Joel Coen, Fargo | Joel Coen, Fargo* |
Milos Foreman, Larry Flint | Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies | Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies * |
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient | Anthony Minghella, The English Patient | Anthony Minghella, The English Patient+ |
Scott Hicks, Shine | Scott Hicks, Shine | Scott Hicks, Shine* |
1995
Globes | DGA | Oscar
The American Pres, Rob Reiner | Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas | Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas |
Mel Gibson for Braveheart | Mel Gibson for Braveheart | Mel Gibson for Braveheart+ |
Ron Howard for Apollo 13 | Ron Howard for Apollo 13* | Chris Noonan for Babe* |
Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility | Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility* | Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking |
Casino, Martin Scorsese | Michael Radford for Il Postino | Michael Radford for Il Postino* |
1994
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Ed Zwick, Legends of Fall | Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral* | Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway |
Oliver Stone, NBK | Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption* | Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red |
Robert Redford for Quiz Show | Robert Redford for Quiz Show | Robert Redford for Quiz Show* |
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction | Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction | Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction* |
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump | Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump+ |
1993
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* | Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* | Robert Altman for Short Cuts |
Jane Campion for The Piano | Jane Campion for The Piano | Jane Campion for The Piano* |
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day | James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day | James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day* |
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence | Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence | Jim Sheridan for In the Name Of the Father* |
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List | Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List+ |
1992
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Robert Altman, The Player | Robert Altman, The Player | Robert Altman, The Player |
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men* | Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men* | Martin Brest for Scent Of a Woman* |
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven | Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven+ |
James Ivory for Howards End | James Ivory for Howards End | James Ivory for Howards End* |
Through It Robert Redford, A River Runs | Neil Jordan for The Crying Game | Neil Jordan for The Crying Game* |
1991
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides* | Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides* | John Singleton for Boyz N the Hood |
Oliver Stone for JFK | Oliver Stone for JFK | Oliver Stone for JFK* |
Terry Gilliam, The Fisher King | Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise | Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise |
Barry Levinson for Bugsy | Barry Levinson for Bugsy | Barry Levinson for Bugsy* |
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs | Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs | Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs+ |
1990
Globes | DGA | Oscar
Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III | Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III | Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III* |
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves | Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves | Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves+ |
Bernardo Bertolucci, The Sheltering Sky | Barry Levinson for Avalon | Stephen Frears for The Grifters |
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas | Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas | Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas* |
Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune | Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso | Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune |
For the win only
Globes | DGA | Oscar
+also won Best Picture
1989 | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July | Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA) |
1988 | Clint Eastwood, Bird | Barry Levinson, Rain Man | Barry Levinson, Rain Man+ |
1987 | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor | Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+ |
1986 | Oliver Stone, Platoon | Oliver Stone, Platoon | Oliver Stone, Platoon+ |
1985 | John Huston, Prizzi’s Honor | Steven Spielberg, Color Purple | Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+ |
1984: | Milos Forman, Amadeus | Milos Forman, Amadeus | Milos Forman, Amadeus+ |
1983: | Barbra Streisand, Yentl | James Brooks, Terms of Endearment | James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi | Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+ |
1981: | Warren Beatty, Reds | Warren Beatty, Reds | Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire) |
1980: | Robert Redford, Ordinary People | Robert Redford, Ordinary People | Robert Redford, Ordinary People+ |
1979: | Frances Ford Coppola, Apocalypse Now | Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer | Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
1978: | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter | Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+ |
1977: | Herbert Ross, The Turning Point | Woody Allen, Annie Hall | Woody Allen, Annie Hall+ |
1976: | Sidney Lumet, Network | John Avildson, Rocky | John Avildson, Rocky+ |
1975: | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
1974: | William Friedkin, The Exorcist | Frances Coppola, Godfather II | Frances Coppola, Godfather II+ |
1973: | George Roy Hill, The Sting | George Roy Hill, The Sting | George Roy Hill+ |
1972: | Frances Coppola, The Godfather | Frances Coppola, The Godfather | Bob Fosse, Cabaret (Godfather) |
1971: | William Friedkin, The French Connection | William Friedkin, The French Connection | William Friedkin, The French Connection+ |
1970: | Arthur Hiller, Love Story | Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton | Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+ |
1969: | Charles Jarott, Anne of a Thousand Days | John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy | John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+ |
1968: | Paul Newman, Rachel Rachel | Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter | Carol Reed, Oliver+ |
1967: | Mike Nichols, The Graduate | Mike Nichols, The Graduate | Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night) |
1966: | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons | Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+ |
1965: | David Lean, Doctor Zhivago | Robert Wise, The Sound of Music | Robert Wise, the Sound of Music+ |
1964: | George Cukor, My Fair Lady | George Cukor, My Fair Lady | George Cukor, My Fair Lady+ |
1963: | Elia Kazan, America America | Tony Richardson, Tom Jones | Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+ |
1962: | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia | David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+ |
1961: | Stanley Kramer, Judgment at Nuremberg | Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story | Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+ |
1960: | Jack Cardiff, Sons and Lovers | Billy Wilder, The Apartment | Billy Wilder, The Apartment+ |
1959: | William Wyler, Ben Hur | William Wyler, Ben Hur | William Wyler, Ben Hur+ |
1958: | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi | Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+ |
1957: | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai | David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
1956: | George Stevens, Giant | George Stevens, Giant | George Stevens, Giant (Around/World in 80 Days) |
1955: | Joshua Logan, Picnic/Elia Kazan, Baby Doll | Delbert Mann, Marty | Delbert Mann, Marty+ |
1954: | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront | Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+ |
1953: | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity | Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity+ |
1952: | Cecil B Demille Greatest Show on Earth | John Ford, The Quiet Man | John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth) |
1951: | László Benedek, Death of a Salesman | George Stevens, A Place in the Sun | George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris) |
1950: | Billy Wilder, Sunset Blvd. | Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve | Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+ |
1949: | Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men | Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men | Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives (All the King’s Men) |
1948: | John Huston, Treasure of Sierra Madre | Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives | John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet) |
1947 | Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement | Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement | Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement |
1946 | Frank Capra, It’s a Wonderful Life | William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives | William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives |
1945 | Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend | Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend | Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend |
1944 | Leo McCary for Going My Way | Leo McCary for Going My Way | Leo McCary for Going My Way |
1943 | Henry King, Song of Bernadette | Michael Curtiz for Casablanca | Michael Curtiz for Casablanca |