As the last remaining Oscar voters finish up their voting today and by 5pm the deadline will pass.  It will be interesting to see whether the Academy’s votes reflect what we would have otherwise known from the nominations thus far or whether they will be vastly different from the general picture we’re getting from the consensus votes.  Right now, I feel like there are a few movies whose fate is unknown and those include:

The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
Moonrise Kingdom
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Middle of Nowhere
Looper
Compliance
Arbitrage

These film are likely to either hit or miss but haven’t thus far been strongly represented in the early awards. In other words, it could go either way.   The rest of them, though, seem fairly solid.  If any of the following aren’t nominated for Best Picture, it would count as an upset:

Two films have hit every marker so far, including the Guild nominations:
Lincoln, Argo – SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, ADG, Globe for director, AFI, NBR

One film has almost the same but minus a SAG ensemble nod:
Zero Dark Thirty -SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, ADG, Globe for director, AFI, NBR

And the fourth lock has all but any SAG nominations:
Life of Pi – WGA, PGA, ADG, Globe for director, AFI

And hanging in but missing the all-important Globe nod for Director:
Silver Linings Playbook – SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, AFI, NBR

Les Miserables – SAG ensemble, WGA, PGA, ADG, AFI, NBR

To me, Best Picture has for a while now and remains:

Lincoln
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild

If there are ten nominees, that tenth place could be taken by: Skyfall, Amour, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Dark Knight Rises.

Lincoln

Wins
AFI – Top Ten Movies of the Year
Boston – Actor, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
New York Film Critics – Actor, Screenplay, Supporting Actress
National Board of Review – Top Ten Movies of the Year

Nominations
Critics Choice – 13 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Score, Costumes, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup, Ensemble
Golden Globes – 7 Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Score
Screen Actors Guild – 4 Ensemble, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Argo

Wins
AFI Movie of the Year
Los Angeles Film Critics – Screenplay
National Board of Review Top Ten Films

Nominations
Golden Globes 5 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Score
Screen Actors Guild 2 Ensemble, Supporting Actor

Zero Dark Thirty

Wins
AFI – Top Ten Movies of the Year
Boston – Film, Director, Editing
Los Angeles Film Critics – Editing
National Board of Review – Film, Director, Actress
New York Film Critics – Film, Director, Cinematography

Nominations
Critics Choice – 5 Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing
Golden Globes – 4 Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay
Screen Actors Guild – 1 Best Actress

Silver Linings Playbook

Wins
AFI Top Ten Films
Toronto Audience Award
National Board of Review  3 – Top Ten Films, Actress, Screenplay
Los Angeles Film Critics: Best Actress

Nominations
Critics Choice: 10 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress, Actor in a Comedy, Actor, Best Comedy, Supporting Actor, Ensemble, Actress in a Comedy.
Golden Globes: 4 Picture, Screenplay, Actor, Actress
Screen Actors Guild: 4 Ensemble, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor

Life of Pi

Wins
AFI Top Ten Film of the Year

Nominations
Critics Choice: 9  Picture, Director, Screenplay, Best Young Actor, Cinematography, Art Direction, Score, Editing, Visual EffectsGolden Globes: 3 Picture, Director, Score

Les Miserables

Wins
AFI Top Ten Film of the Year
National Board of Review – 2 Ensemble, Top Ten Films of the Year

Nominations
Critics Choice: 11 Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Costume, Art Direction, Cinematography,  Editing, Makeup, Song, Acting Ensemble
Golden Globes: 4 Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Song

Django Unchained

Wins
AFI Top Ten Films of the Year
National Board of Review – 2 Supporting Actor, Top Ten Films

Nominations
Critics Choice – 2 Picture, Screenplay
Golden Globes – 5 Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor (2)

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Metacritic rating: 86
Box office: $11 million

Wins
AFI Movie of the Year
Cannes Film Fest – FIPRESCI Prize, Golden Camera, Prix Regards Jeune, Prize of the Ecumenical Jury – Special Mention
Deauville Film Fest – Best Film
Los Angeles Film Fest – Best Score, Best Supporting Actor
National Board of Review – 5 Best Breakthrough Performer, Best Directorial Debut, Breakthrough Performance – Female, Top Films
Sundance – Grand Jury Prize, Cinematography

Nominations
Critics Choice – 3 Picture, Actress, Best Young Actor/Actress

Contenders that also made AFI”s Top Ten of the Year

Moonrise Kingdom
The Dark Knight Rises

Contenders that also made the National Board of Reviews Top Ten of the Year

Looper
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Promised Land

Contenders that also made the Critics Choice Top Ten:

Moonrise Kingdom
The Master

Films that really need some top level support to make it in:

The Dark Knight Rises
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Middle of Nowhere
Moonrise Kingdom
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Looper
Flight