Producers Guild Confirms What We Knew, At Least So Far and with One Exception

It was surprisingly easy to pick nine out of the ten Best Picture nominees for the Producers Guild, which means we will probably have a lot of winners in our contest. What this means is what it seems to mean every year: our method for finding the popular films in a consensus vote is pretty much right on. If you look at Gurus of Gold, for instance, you’ll see these same nine predicted. Only a few of them had Skyfall on their list. That last slot seemed like it could go to either The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises or Skyfall. Three franchise blockbusters that people really really liked. Skyfall, though, seems to have most of the buzz right now in that regard.

But does that mean it’s headed for a Best Picture nod? It’s tough to say. We don’t yet know how many Best Picture nominees there will be, let alone which ones make it in. We do know that if there were five right now they would be: Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook/Les Miserables/Django Unchained fighting it out for that last slot. With more than five allowed, all of them should have no problem making it in. That’s a solid 7. Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom also seem like safe bets, that’s nine. If you think the Academy will pick ten, you could go either for Amour or Skyfall.

For Skyfall to get in, it has to hit many voters’ number one — it can’t just be a three or a five, but a one or a two, ideally. I am fairly certain that the Academy are the only group around that counts their ballots this way. How many Academy members can you think of who will put down Skyfall at number one? It probably has a better chance placing there than The Dark Knight Rises or The Avengers but still, Academy members might not be that mainstream.

In conclusion, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Skyfall will get in. If these nominations had come out a week ago, it would probably have a slightly better chance, but early on Kris Tapley‘s prediction feels more and more like a reality: that, at the very least, Skyfall might be looked at like the Bourne Ultimatum and could get in for more nominations than previously thought. Tapley thinks 9: Picture, Supporting actor, Editing, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Song and Production Design. I think Supporting Actor, Sound, Sound Editing, Cinematography, Song and POSSIBLY editing if Les Miserables gets bumped.

Right now, I still think Best Picture is down to those that keep getting onto the same lists, as illustrated below.

NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

2011 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

2010 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

*AFI special award

2009 NBR | BFCA | AFI | Producers Guild | Best Picture

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