Oscar Bits and Bites

–>Nate Silver takes a crack at Oscar predictions by offering up the general consensus. He admits that in many categories there is just no way of knowing for sure. The only thing he doesn’t factor in in his stats is Academy history itself and relies completely, as so many now do, on precursors. This year’s Oscars will pit precursor strength against Academy history and the Academy will likely lose.

–>Despite Lincoln taking an unusual pummeling from some reporters at the NY Times this year, my pal David Carr among them, their readers, by an enormous majority, pick Lincoln as the winner.  New York Times readers are my people. Most people “out there” are going to be shocked when Argo is picked because they haven’t been following the drama.  No one in a sane world would ever believe that this year went down the way it did unless they lived through it, which we all are currently doing, mind-bogglingly, unrelentingly.

More than 75,000 readers haven’t waited on her guidance to start their ballots. Even though “Argo” has surged among Hollywood insiders, the reader choice is clearly for “Lincoln” for best picture, director, actor and adapted screenplay.

–> 17 Unusual Oscar Records [TIME]

–>Ethan Hawke On the Oscars:

“People want to turn everything in this country into a competition,” he tellsGotham (via The New York Post), so “it’s clear who the winner is and who the loser is. … It’s why they like to announce the grosses of movies, because it’s a way of saying, ‘This one is No. 1.'”

He continues: “It’s so asinine … if you look at how many forgettable, stupid movies have won Oscars and how many mediocre performers have Oscars above their fireplace. Making a priority of chasing these fake carrots and money and dubious accolades, I think it’s really destructive.”

Maybe this signals a swing back to the days when stars didn’t believe in showing up at awards shows. When I was a young woman no respectable actor went to the Golden Globes. Heck, now they all go to the Critics Choice.

–>Infographic – 14 things you didn’t know about the Oscars