Predicting the New York Film Critics and the National Board of Review

In just a few days, the New York Film Critics will announce first (Tuesday, December 3) and a day after that, the National Board of Review (Dec. 4). New York recently pushed their date to be before the National Board of Review and yes, that means they’re FIRST, but it also means that they, like the NBR, can maybe push a contender into the race but they’re so early in the race that they often don’t paint an accurate picture of where the buzz is going to go. Then on Dec. 8, Los Angeles will come along and their picks will react to what’s already been announced.

The critics groups tend to influence Best Picture, Director, Best Actor and Best Actress most. The rest of the categories, especially documentary and animated feature, tend to lessen in terms of impact. But really, we’re following Best Picture when we look at these early awards.

—->CONTEST: PREDICT THE NEW YORK FILM CRITICS AWARDS

First up, the New York Film Critics – what will they choose? Last year it was Zero Dark Thirty (nominated) for Best Picture, Daniel Day-Lewis (won Oscar) for Actor, Rachel Weisz for Deep Blue Sea (not nominated for the Oscar). Year before it was The Artist (won Best Picture), Streep for the Iron Lady (who won the Oscar), and Brad Pitt for Moneyball (nominated). Year before that, The Social Network (nominated), Annette Bening (nominated), and Colin Firth (won Oscar). Since it’s the first word on the critics awards, their choice will have a bigger impact. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re picking the winner or starting what will end up being a consensus. Picking The Artist was less meaningful than picking Streep for the Iron Lady, for instance. The Artist won everything but Streep had a formidable challenger in frontrunner Viola Davis.

The National Board of Review is a little less formal than the New York Film Critics. They are better at pushing in an unlikely contender than they are confirming or starting the consensus. They rarely go with the flow.  They did agree with New York in picking Zero Dark Thirty, which set that film up early as the one to beat.  But the year before they went with Hugo rather than The Artist.

—->CONTEST: PREDICT THE NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW

Our predictions after the jump.

New York Film Critics – it should be noted that they have an odd way of voting. They do run-offs, which I’ve never completely understood. But they always come out of voting saying “such and such won the first round then lost in the last round.” Nonetheless, here is how I think it might go.

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave (Alt. Nebraska) – Sasha Stone

Best Director
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave (Alt. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis) – Stone

Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska (alt Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club) – Stone

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (Alt. Judi Dench, Philomena) – Stone

Best Supporting Actor
James Gandolfini, Enough Said (Alt. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Supporting Actress
Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis (Alt. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave)

Screenplay
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (Alt. Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said)

Cinematography
Gravity (Alt. Inside Llewyn Davis)

Animated
The Wind Rises( Alt. Frozen) – Stone

Foreign Language
Blue is the Warmest Colour – Stone

Documentary
Stories We Tell (Alt. The Act of Killing) – Stone

National Board of Review

Best Picture – Gravity – Stone

Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity – Stone

Best Actor – Robert Redford, All is Lost – Stone

Best Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine – Stone

Best Supporting Actor – Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips – Stone

Screenplay Adapted – 12 Years a Slave – Stone

Screenplay Original – Saving Mr. Banks – Stone

Foreign – The Past – Stone

Animated – Frozen – Stone

Documentary – Blackfish – Stone

Ensemble – American Hustle – Stone

—->CONTEST: PREDICT THE NEW YORK FILM CRITICS AWARDS

—->CONTEST: PREDICT THE NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW

Marshall Flores has built two charts to help illustrate how NYFCC and NBR winners have fared at the Oscars: