It’s kind of interesting that it took a British film director to make the most essential film about American slavery, it might take the British Academy to reward 12 Years a Slave where our DGA couldn’t. Kris Tapley takes a good long look at this over at In Contention where he believes there’s a good chance the BAFTA awards could be pivotal in a very very tight race.
Me, I think the Brits will absolutely go for Gravity all the way.
Cuaron for director, Gravity for Pic and all of the tech awards. I am thinking it will win many BAFTAS before going onward to the Oscars where it will also win. Nonetheless, Tapley says:
I’m hearing there are plenty of members just sweep-voting [12 Years a Slave], in fact, meaning it could walk away with wins for Best Film, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay just two days after Oscar ballots hit mailboxes (and inboxes). Yes, Cuarón could hit his first real hiccup with BAFTA (not that his missing there would greatly affect his standing on these shores — with or without a Best Picture Oscar for “Gravity,” his award for directing seems secure). Below-the-line votes seem to be spread out a bit between the two films.
We’re kind of in the same conundrum over there that we are here. They loved American Hustle, they loved Gravity and apparently 12 Years a Slave. Anyway, interesting to note.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
http://m.hitfix.com/in-contention/12-years-a-slave-tops-uk-regional-critics-vote
Another critics group that has split BP/BD. I think we are looking at a split at BAFTA!!
Yeah sorry for the confusion. The experts are the renowned predictors from a variety of reputable organizations and publications in the country. The Goldderby editors (who seem to like to go against the grain) are just that, only people that work for one website, so I think taking the experts’ numbers is much more indicative than one website.
^ Okay. He’s right w/ regards to the “experts”. In the case of PGA, it’s only 5-4 margin favoring 12YAS. And it’s a split between the editors and experts in both awards. NONE of the editors thought it would win GG 0-8.
With such a split and slim result, saying that 12YAS was *expected* to win is an overstatement. But I concede with the facts.
Alan, John specifically said “experts” at GoldDerby, not “editors”.
Here’s the PGA breakdown at GoldDerby: http://www.goldderby.com/results/categories/136
Here’s the GG breakdown at GoldDerby:
http://www.goldderby.com/results/categories/133
As you can see, John’s right, 12YAS indeed was expected to win both PGA and GG, according to GoldDerby’s overall system.
John,
No. I follow Goldderby everyday. They predicted Gravity to win PGA and GG drama. You are mistaken, trust me. Along with other editors, Tom O’Neil said that 12YAS didn’t have “a prayer of a chance” to win GG Drama.
“Seriously – I look forward to more updates, whoever you are. A couple more and I can narrow it down (your true identity). I’m down to 3 possibilities, unless you’re a new kindred spirit on the block.”
“Gail=Unlikelyhood? That’s my best bet. Same kind of (much appreciated) humor.”
You mean Gail Withers is…one of us? How “And Then There Were None”-ish!
*Robert A. looks around suspiciously*
Seriously, though, I just assumed Gail was a wacky new addition to AD. Have I been hoodwinked?
re: Ang Lee, I loved both his Oscar wins.
The analogy (to Y Tu Mama Tambien) could be if Lee had won BD for Eat Drink Man Woman and/or The Wedding Banquet. I confess to liking both films more than his winners (yes, I know that’s sacrilegious).
Looking at it another way, had Spielberg won BD for ET, I would believe it to be a glorious choice by the Academy, especially considering the lasting love the ET commands. But Spielberg’s directing honor for Schindler would command more respect from me.
if Cuaron had won a directing Oscar for Y Tu Mama Tambien, it would, to me, and I guess many others, mean more than one for Gravity. Just would.
That’s swell. I liked that movie; also THE PRISONER OF AZAKABAN is a masterful feat rarely matched in Hollywood again. I reckon Cuaron deserved an Academy Award nomination for that film!
Gail,
LOL!
Ha!
Gail=Unlikelyhood? That’s my best bet. Same kind of (much appreciated) humor.
Gail – OMG, that was YOU on the plane?!
Seriously – I look forward to more updates, whoever you are. A couple more and I can narrow it down (your true identity). I’m down to 3 possibilities, unless you’re a new kindred spirit on the block.
Ryan – I loved your photo of me and my girls! You should join our psychic union, as that picture accurately depicts our typical meetings. A big kiss from me to you (and don’t smear my lipstick!)
All of you Leonardo DiCaprio fans should be excited to hear some news I got on my way to London! I’ll be in town during the BAFTAs, but on the plane over one of the movie selections on the plane was An American Werewolf in London. Screaming in fright (and waking up some very disgruntled passengers), I called the stuardass over to give her a piece of my mind.
“Miss, can I help you?”
“This movie is too much for me to bear, how do I RID myself of such filth and gore?”
“Just turn it off!” A rude man sitting next to me snapped. The sturdass smiled politely and walked away.
“Excuse me sir, but that wasn’t nice. I happen to be a trained psychic and am on my way to London, England.”
“Everyone on this plane is on their way to London.”
“Oh…of course. OH MY GOD!!!” My scream startled him and everyone else. But I had to continue my revelation. “A werewolf movie- taking place in London, where I’m going. And it’s about an American Wolf in LONDON.” Then I stood up and turned for all to hear—- “Leonardo DiCaprio is winning for The Wolf of Wall Street!”
The good news- my psychic prediction is most likely accurate. The bad – I was taken into custody and questioned for scaring patrons, thus delaying my arrival to the hotel.
More updates soon!
Y tu mama también
Big agreement here, Bob. In fact, the only director nominated this year who did not edge to the mainstream and realy stuck his neck out was Scorsese. Jonze and the Coens did as well, but missed the cut.
That said, McQueen did the most thought provoking work and would be my pick, but I think his small and atypical filmography spooks the Academy. Cuaron, on the other hand, has made enough Hollywood fare that the diving board scene in Y mama tambien has been long forgotten.
“…or not in the top5 at all.”
phantom, of course you know I’m very happy to believe that.”
Preaching to the choir then 🙂 How American Hustle pulled off this ridiculous amount of awards love will be one of the great Oscar mysteries for me. Right after Silver Linings Playbook…oh, could there be possibly be a pattern ?
Cant see Gravity cleaning up at the BAFTAs. My feeling is that it’ll take most of the technical awards meanwhile 12 Years will take most of the major awards with possibly only Director going to Gravity from the big ones.
Is interesting the acting races as first time we have McConaughy/DiCaprio and Blanchett/Adams in same category. Now, highly doubt Adams wins (personally think it’ll be Emma Thompson just to show up the Academy) but if she pulls an upset, might be a sign to a shift for her. True, didn’t happen for Riva last year but then, Adams does have a Globe, Critic’s Choice (albeit Comedy) and even SAG ensemble for “Hustle” and might help out. Better is best actor, see which performance gets the edge although again, I expect them to buck the trend and award Ejiofor. Either way, can be a precursor; after all, as pointed above, they made two choices in 2008 that went against the “smart money” picks in Cottilard and Swinton and that led to Oscar gold so we’ll see.
“…or not in the top5 at all.”
phantom, of course you know I’m very happy to believe that.
Alan,
12YAS was the favorite both at the Golden Globes and PGA acording to the experts (goldderby.com for source)
Alfred
JANUARY 28, 2014
BAFTA is a good indicator normally, but it’s totally irrelevant this year. 12 will win big, but that means absolutely nothing and I can’t see a single sign that it would change anything in the Oscar race.
=========================================
Fair enough , but can you tell us why ?
Ryan / Claudio
Fair enough. I still think the fact it couldn’t even get between the two top films let alone have the most votes, is telling, but sure, what you say makes sense. For all we know it could have been one vote shy of the tie…or not in the top5 at all.
”WOWS was mostly improvised.”
I don’t think that’s a fair characterization of Terence Winter’s adapted screenplay. Yes, Leo, Jonah and Marty have all discussed some of the improvisation that went on during the shooting, but they were still working off the structure that was Winter’s script. He had to distill Jordan Belfort’s outrageous memoir into a screenplay and decide what to include and what to exclude. Winter also had said that he did his own research (i.e., interviewing the FBI agent who arrested Belfort; watching Belfort give a presentation, etc.). Winter wrote that hilarious Quaaludes sequence; it wasn’t something that Leo and Jonah ad-libbed, etc.
Winter’s won various Emmys and WGA’s for his work on ”The Sopranos” and ”Boardwalk Empire.” Even with the ”Wolf’s” freewheeling improvisations, Winter provided the framework. He won the Adapted Screenplay prize from the National Board of Review, and I wish him all the best with the WGA and the Oscars, too.
American Hustle has only won what it was expected to win. Golden Globe Comedy it was a slam dunk decision. The SAG Ensemble win was seen from a mile away, AH is a movie BUILT on showcasting the actor’s talents and it succeeds in that. The lack of DGA and PGA does not bode well for its chances.
Likewise, 12YAS has also won everything it was expected to win and nothing more(GG Drama, PGA, and soon to be BAFTA), the difference is these awards are strong precursors to Best Picture gold at the Oscars, while SAG Ensemble and Best Comedy at the GG’s are not.
Thanks, Claudiu!
We share the blame for bugging anybody who doesn’t want to consider the possiblity.
Ryan – same time! 🙂
“Patrick
“phantom, because AH didn’t tie for the PGA win means it wasn’t close?”
It means it wasn’t even in the top2…so yes.”
I’ve said this before: what if when there were 3 movies left American Hustle only had 1 or 2 first places less than Gravity and 12 Years a Slave?
Example (completely random total number of votes): Gravity – 59 votes, 12 Years a Slave – 58 votes, American Hustle 57 votes.
OR: Gravity – 65 votes, 12 Years a Slave – 55 votes, American Hustle – 54 votes, then when American Hustle is taken out, 12 Years gets 10 more of their votes than Gravity and ties, BUT if just one person had put American Hustle ahead of 12 Years a Slave instead of the reverse, then 12 Years a Slave would have been out with 54 votes to AH’s 55; then let’s say American Hustle was higher than Gravity on 33 of those redistributed ballots, whereas Gravity was higher on only 21 – then American Hustle would have won by two votes (88-86). That sounds like a pretty realistic scenario to me, given how close the race is right now.
So… it could still have been close. Perhaps, in a sense, even more so than in a single-vote or ranking system. Am I making any errors of judgement?
Am I just being a dick? There are 4,700 members of the PGA.
Am I just a tedious Professor Obvious if I point out that the vote totals might have looked like this?
1111 votes for Gravity
1111 votes for 12 Years a Slave
1100 votes for American Hustle
Patrick
“phantom, because AH didn’t tie for the PGA win means it wasn’t close?”
It means it wasn’t even in the top2…so yes.
OT:
Are the forums all but dead? I just signed on hoping to have a chat with fellow commenters but I saw no activity there. Is anyone alive? 🙂
““And please don’t make me go to the stats again! I’m getting tired of it…”
Me too, Claudiu, Me too!”
🙂
if Cuaron had won a directing Oscar for Y Tu Mama Tambien, it would, to me, and I guess many others, mean more than one for Gravity. Just would.
So how do you feel about Ang Lee’s 2 Oscars then? Neither Brokeback Mountain nor Life of Pi are specific to the Chinese/Taiwanese experience and are more universally themed films.
“And please don’t make me go to the stats again! I’m getting tired of it…”
Me too, Claudiu, Me too!
many, if not most, African slaves were brought to the US in British vessels, but the Brits led on abolition, so it may be entirely fitting that a British director of African heritage made the definitive (to date) movie about US slavery.
******
if Cuaron had won a directing Oscar for Y Tu Mama Tambien, it would, to me, and I guess many others, mean more than one for Gravity. Just would.
Indeed, Gravity would be the shortest film to ever win BP at 91 minutes. The shortest Annie Hall clocked in at 93. However, running times also include credits. Back in the days, credit sequence lasts about a minute or so, whereas in Gravity it’s about 7 1/2 minutes, which makes its true running time 83 1/2 minutes. 83 1/2 vs. 92. Significantly shorter.
“But my real point is that 12YAS is probably going to win awards for Supporting Actress and very possibly Screenplay. As AMPAS members vote on every single category (including the shorts for the first time this year), how do we credit those wins to an informed (or uninformed) voting body and the loss of BP to a voting body that didn’t see the movies?”
Lupita is going to get votes from people who haven’t seen the movie but are impressed by her likability, grace and presence in her public appearances. It’s been awhile since a brand new actress came onto the scene with that much going for her.
And John Ridley has so little competition; WOWS was mostly improvised and Before Midnight is a little movie that they won’t feel the need to honor. People may be underestimating Philomena, particularly since Steve Coogan is an actor, but they’ll probably just throw 12 Years another bone in that category.
Kind of makes one feel better about all the lame stuff that has won BP in the past thinking that it may have just been because not enough people bothered to watch the better nominees… I like it! 🙂
“if it wins Best picture it will be the shortest movie in Academy history at less than 90 mins” (Gravity)
Very interesting, if it’s accurate!
It is just slightly over 90 minutes, though – at least the version I watched.
“Julia Roberts turned in a career-best performance in August and I loved her in it”
Me too!
“I think a Gravity win for BP/DR on course for BAFTA. If not, and 12 years does win both at BAFTA, then the race is on!”
The race is on either way. And please don’t make me go to the stats again! I’m getting tired of it…
Besides, it’d be a waste of time. I can easily prove that there’s no clear favorite, statistically speaking. And then you’ll just change tune and tell me that stats are meaningless anyway and we’re talking about “buzz”, like everybody else. I say: don’t bother!
“BAFTA will be more telling as to how it treats American Hustle.”
Clearly.
Jeffrey Wells has shot down the Daily Mail story that the upcoming Blu-Ray DVD of ”Wolf of Wall Street” will contain a 4-hour director’s cut; according to a publicist from Red Granite, it will be the same 3-hour version that’s being shown in the theaters.
http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2014/01/wrong-wrong-terribly-wrong/
Though Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice & various critics groups are cited as precursors to the Oscars, there is one big difference between them. Critics at the Globes, Critic’s Choice, etc., HAVE to see ALL the movies; it’s their job to review them.
But the Oscars depend on a honor system: that its voters MAKE the time and effort to see ALL the pictures. Yet as Scott Feinberg at the Hollywood Reporter points out: ”The deep, dark secret is that a lot of Academy voters don’t watch a lot of movies. To get them to watch the movies is the biggest challenge.” Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere adds: ”Whatever respect and credibility the Academy has is constantly being undermined by the deadwoods, who are generally older and sleepier and who tend to think and vote more conservatively.”
Frankly, I don’t think being an Oscar voter should be a lifetime appointment, like a Supreme Court justice. After a certain amount of time, you should be rotated out, and allow others to vote.
That’s a great question. According to Steve Pond, AMPAS came out and stated that the #1 votes would end up being the tie-breaker if there was a tie at some point. But if both films ended up having the same amount of #1s, then the tie breaker would then be the number of #2 votes, and then #3s if necessary, and so forth.
So if all voters evenly split their #1 votes between Gravity and 12 Years in Round 1, eliminating everyone else from contention, then the tie-breaker would be which film had more #2 votes.
Marshall, what if 50% of the ballots put 12YAS #1 and Gravity #2, while the other 50% put Gravity #1 and 12YAS #2? It doesn’t matter how the other 7 films are ranked, they’ll all have zero #1 votes and will all be eliminated on the first round. How can the Academy avoid a tie in this case (assuming an even number of voters)?
If I’m understanding you correctly, Antoinette, your scenario is impossible, as since American Hustle received zero #1 votes it would’ve been eliminated from contention long ago, its votes redistributed to the remaining contenders.
I probably should write up another Statsgasm episode featuring a BP voting simulation to help explain things. 🙂
That film was plenty overlong the way it is. What about a two hour version with the worst (or just plain redundant) scenes cut out?
If only that rule could be applied to the Oscar Show itself.
It’s odd how we can tolerate a long Academy Awards Show, but have issues with long films. This doesn’t necessarily apply to you, Julian. In this particular case, I know you’re in Europe where the standards on what can be shown onscreen and TV is far more liberal – as it should be – so an additional hour of bacchanalia isn’t a big deal. Take pity us N. Americans.
@simone
I think it’s unfair that you call me passionless, non-American etc. just because I didn’t find Gravity to be less important than 12 Years.
I liked 12 Years, it did move me. However, I liked Nebraska, Her, Gravity & TWOWS much more than 12 Years and I root for them more.
Just because a film is about an important subject shouldn’t make a film important. Importance of a film is subjective, just like everything about art. And I just think saying Gravity is less important than 12 Years like it’s a given fact is unfair.
Cool. Use blockquote.
Ha! If that happens, then AMPAS implodes, they promised they wouldn’t have a tie.
How do you guys do the pretty grey boxes?
Aye, I wanna know too. They’re so legit for “hey, look what this idiot said!”
I echo Marshall’s comments about Julia Roberts. Exactly. I was looking for a Golden Globe win for her, but as that went to Lawrence her Oscar chances are slim. Even though I thought she was miscast, she displayed immense power on the screen and matched Mary Louise et al moment to moment.
Re Bafta I’m still not convinced that they will shower 12 years as emphatically as others are predicting. I will be happy to sit corrected on this, but feel that they will go with Fassbender and Ejiofor, their parochial sentiments are not as predictable as the myth around them doing so. I think a Gravity win for BP/DR on course for BAFTA. If not, and 12 years does win both at BAFTA, then the race is on! BAFTA will be more telling as to how it treats American Hustle. It is still a potential spoiler for the main prizes at both guilds.
How do you guys do the pretty grey boxes?
If it’s a trade secret, just let me know and I’ll ask my buddy Snowden.
Okay how’s about this, Marshall. What if GRAVITY got 50% of #1 votes and 12 YEARS A SLAVE got 50% of #1 votes, but AMERICAN HUSTLE got 100% of 2nd place votes. What wins?
I actually said the exact opposite and I think Lupita has a strong dark horse challenger in Julia Roberts.
Julia Roberts turned in a career-best performance in August and I loved her in it, and I’m someone who has derided Roberts as a bit of a one-trick pony. That being said, a) August has had a very divisive reception, and b) Julia has won before, so the parity effect should be a factor like it is with Lawrence.
One obvious reason: different voting systems. 12 Years needs to be ranked highest on 50% + 1 ballots to win BP, Lupita Nyong’o can win with just a plurality of the votes, and the support she would need can be as low as just a shade above 20%.
What you asked me was this: “How can Lupita win an Oscar if half the Academy didn’t even see 12 Years a Slave?”
So I tried to show you how that can happen.
You asked me to “please explain.” So I tried my best to explain, ok? Can we please stop now? you’re a good person, and I don’t want to argue anymore. I’m exhausted.
your own insistence about the strong support for all the other actresses
I actually said the exact opposite and I think Lupita has a strong dark horse challenger in Julia Roberts.
“I think Lupita will need at least 40% of the ballots to win ”
then what you think is wrong.
your own insistence about the strong support for all the other actresses proves that as few as 21% of the votes can determine a winner in the acting categories.
21% Lupita Nyong’o
20% Jennifer Lawrence
20% Julia Roberts
20% Sally Hawkins
19% June Squib
CB, do you think I’m trying to say these are the exact numbers? I said hypothetical. You want to know how fractions work. I’m simplifying the example to show you. But holy wow, this boring, so I’m gonna stop trying to explain to you now.
Believe whatever you want to believe about math. Fine with me.
I’m just tellin you. This is a fact: People don’t vote for movies they don’t watch. And if you think as many people saw 12 Years a Slave as saw Gravity, then you’re delusional.
Obviously that doesn’t mean that any movie is unable to win. But if 5,800 people watch one movie and 5,500 watch another movie. which movie has an advantage?
Dude, this isn’t even arithmetic. It’s common sense.
BAFTA is a good indicator normally, but it’s totally irrelevant this year. 12 will win big, but that means absolutely nothing and I can’t see a single sign that it would change anything in the Oscar race. 12 might win best actor and best supporting actor, but that won’t have much bearing on the Oscar race, MM and Leto will win comfortably. Also if McQueen wins we all know it’s due to him being British (nothing wrong with that, he deserves to win a major award), but that would not change the BD race, Cuaron has it locked after the DGA. Also 12 winning BP means nothing as long as Gravity wins best British film. The only scenario that could be a telling story if Gravity loses BBF, BD and a couple of tech cats.
I also don’t think your numbers for BSA are right. I think Lupita will need at least 40% of the ballots to win — Julia Roberts is going to get a lot of love from actors who have worked with her and like her immensely, not to mention lots of directors, makeup artists, etc. It’s a great performance by a well-liked actress.
Meanwhile June Squibb and Sally Hawkins are pretty much non-factors here, and Jennifer Lawrence has pretty much been sidelined. Wouldn’t be shocked if some former Lawrence voters went for Roberts and she pulled off a surprise win. But yeah, I do see Lupita winning, with either a high plurality or an outright majority.
you do understand that it’s possible to like an actress in a movie and still not care much for the movie? That’s sort of how The Iron Lady failed to win Best Picture.
I understand all those numbers. I am simply arguing that your assumption that 12YAS won’t win BP because people refuse to see it is inherently wrong and misguided. You have literally no proof that people in the voting body — in fact, everything points to the fact that they will watch it. Proof that people can watch it and not like it is me: I have seen it twice and dislike it immensely. I also dislike Gravity, and I don’t think Hustle was amazing, but was a fun, likable romp. Ultimately nothing you’ve said proves your points — it’s simply conjecture.
Do you think it’s possible people could see 12YAS and come to the conclusion that it’s not a masterpiece? I think that’s not only possible but what will explain its potential loss for BP.
Fun with Fractions. Lesson 1
3000 voters watch 12 Years a Slave (half the academy)
5000 voters watch American Hustle
6000 voters watch Gravity
1250 voters choose Lupita (all it takes to win)
1150 voters choose Jennifer
2900 voters support 12 Years (like, hypothetically, 95% of people who bother to see it)
3100 voters support Gravity (like, hypothetically, 52% of people who bother to see it)
do you know anything at all about how numbers work, CB?
numbers do this thing called “adding up”
Who are these people? Do you have links to them? Not trying to sound sarcastic.
Also, EVERY movie has people like that. I know people who refuse to see Gravity, who refuse to see Nebraska (good for them, it’s terrible), who refuse to see Wolf, who still refuse to see Brokeback Mountain.
But please explain how you can say that 12YAS will lose bc people refuse to see it AND yet will still probably win BSA for Lupita. That’s what makes no sense to me.
We’re talking about screeners here.
No we aren’t. We’re talking about people who have openly spoken about how they’re not interested in seeing 12 Years a Slave. Some of them weirdly almost boosting about how they refuse to.
We’re talking about screeners here.
But my real point is that 12YAS is probably going to win awards for Supporting Actress and very possibly Screenplay. As AMPAS members vote on every single category (including the shorts for the first time this year), how do we credit those wins to an informed (or uninformed) voting body and the loss of BP to a voting body that didn’t see the movies?
Crash grossed the least of every BP winner in modern history, but we know Lionsgate sent DVDs to everyone in the Academy and I believe SAG, so your box office totals don’t support your argument.
To answer your questions, Ryan, with another question: What makes you think that A. More people will watch Gravity…
gosh, I’m stumped. If only we had any evidence that more people are watching Gravity.
$700 million in tickets sold for Gravity
$70 million in tickets sold for 12 Years.
To answer your questions, Ryan, with another question: What makes you think that A. More people will watch Gravity, a movie they probably know works best and only on a big screen with 3d, than they will watch 12YAS? B. That 12YAS is the movie fewer AMPAS members will watch?
I think fewer will watch Philomena, a movie whose own title puts me to sleep. Or Nebraska. Or Dallas Buyers Club.
Sheer curiosity will make 12YAS one of the MOST-WATCHED films sent out to AMPAS members.
Right now, you assume it will lose and you assume that it should win. So the reason given is, ‘Well no one will watch it but if they did they’d HAVE to vote for it because it is objectively the best.’ My response is, ‘More people have seen 12YAS than have seen at least 5 of its fellow nominees, and the fact that it has won some major awards has both proven that and will lead to more viewers of it.’
Finally, comparing Crash to Brokeback is a bad example because Crash won, I believe, because the majority of AMPAS members unwilling to vote for a progressive story feature two gay lead characters decided to feel progressive voting against a movie whose message was pretty much ‘racism is bad (but we’re all racist’. Why would 12YAS, a movie whose entire purpose (and only real theme if there is one) is to show examples of how bad slavery was, lose with those same voters?
It is probably more accurate to say that guild and precursor awards guide us on which movies to predict to win, than to say that they guide the Academy on which movies to vote for.
I will be using the BAFTA results to guide me on my predictions, particularly in the technical categories – Sound, and Film Editing. My personal wish is that Captain Phillips gets its recognition in these categories and then goes on to win the Oscar as well.
I’m sick and tired of unimaginative people closing their minds and predicting Gravity to win for anything that smells technical. In the past I called those people Avatards. This time I’ll call them Gravitards.
PS: Don’t be a Gravitard.
Let’s not keep looking for excuses by blaming the unprovable habits of current AMPAS voters.
Distinguished Academy member Beyoncé Knowles: “I don’t have time to watch many movies.”
Nice job with the diversification, Academy. ISWYDT
CB, let me ask you 3 simple math questions.
1. If TWO movies can TIE at the PGA, then do you think the ballots of 100 Academy members don’t make a difference?
2. How many votes do you think caused Brokeback Mountain to lose to Crash? 1000 votes? 100? 10? Maybe it was just Ernest fucking Borgnine.
3. So do you not think fifty people refusing to watch a movie and therefore never knowing what they’re missing can ever make the difference between winning and losing? How about 500 people? How about 5?
Whether Ejiofor or DiCaprio wins the BAFTA, they will hoth have a lot of people voting for them in AMPAS, chipping away into McConaughey votes. Heck, Dern, too. Thing is, McConaughey has the definite advantage by beating them in all the lead up races 3 or more weeks ago. But no one has voted for the Oscars YET. Things can change. That race feels locked, and yet I sense a lot of recent DiCaprio buzz and/or Ejiofor.
If you need proof that a lot of Academy members never see all the movies then you need to go back and study Chapter One of Dirty Little Secrets of the Oscars.
I know that, and it’s why amazing movies and performances are often overlooked. But where in this situation does that ring true? Lots of Academy members are also in the guilds, and PGA and SAG both offer proof (wins for Lupita and the film itself) that people are watching 12YAS. Furthermore, the film has been nominated in nine categories and is considered by the mainstream press one of the frontrunners if not THE frontrunner in this race. It just doesn’t stand to reason that its losing is because the only people who are in the film business not interested in probably the most-buzzed-about movie of the year are Academy members. It also doesn’t stand to reason that if it doesn’t take home BP it’s because they didn’t see it — I’ve seen it twice and I wouldn’t vote for it to win in any category.
But one other point: we used to all whine about how the Academy never lets comedies win, and never lets sci-fi blockbusters win. Now, those are exactly the movies that could thwart 12YAS from winning. But shouldn’t the stodgy Academy have just nominated Saving Mr. Banks and given that the win, if this logic dictated? Of all the BP contenders, only Philomena and perhaps Captain Philips fit any kind of ‘typical winner’ mold. Let’s not keep looking for excuses by blaming the unprovable habits of current AMPAS voters.
Where is the evidence for these folks who have not seen the movie ?
If you need proof that a lot of Academy members never see all the movies then you need to go back and study Chapter One of Dirty Little Secrets of the Oscars.
I’m not sure I agree that 12 Years a Slave is at the bottom of screener piles, mostly because it just has so much damn buzz, and has had such buzz for months now. I think that the fact that it’s winning so many awards (Golden Globe, awards for Lupita, the PGA tie, being the probable runner up at DGA), means that the hypothesis “no one is watching it is why it won’t win” doesn’t hold up. That hypothesis also presupposes that if people did just watch it, it would win. I disagree with that.
If Lupita wins BSA, and I suspect she will, then that should quell the talk that 12YAS loses BP because no one watched it.
Buford is right about Gravity – it is basically a series of video game cutscenes and then in-game play. Nothing great about that movie, and All Is Lost, a real masterpiece, is the far superior and truer version.
If I had my way, the solid Dallas Buyers Club would win BP this year.
Patrick – BAFTA has little to no influence on BP Oscar. DGA Rules!!
Furthermore , GRAVITY is just another example of the dumbing down of ”popular culture ” …it belongs alongside movies such as TERMINATOR …just special effects orgies …if it wins Best picture it will be the shortest movie in Academy history at less than 90 mins …it has so little substance that it would of been difficult to have drawn it out any longer
The movie can be watched by any non english speaker anywhere in the world without subtitles …they wouldn’t need to understand Cloony’s glib remarks and wisecracks , nor would they miss anything from Bullock’s mawkish sob story about her deceased daughter ; it is simply , yes ”SIMPLY ”universal ….plus it has an element of voyeurism, with Bullock floating around in her underwear ,that even the bearded Afghan tribesmen , or a convention of excitable Japanese businessmen would fully appreciate… BANZAI SANDRA !
All 3 frontrunners have resistance in their own way. Just b/c someone who has seen 12YAS would detect its greatness and contemplating voting for it. And just b/c Gravity is widely seen, it doesn’t mean all audience are automatically entranced by it and think it’s the best of the lot.
Where is the evidence for these folks who have not seen the movie ?…are they the same folks who never watched Schindler’s List , or were turned off by the violence of No Country for old men, or The departed ? who are they ?
The problem , it seems to me , is not that they haven’t seen the movie , but that they actually preferred the feel good over the gravitas …the lightweight over the heavy , the vacuous over the thoughtful and to be entertained instead of being informed about serious historical and moral issues …GRAVITY is clearly the path of least resistance
“They’re also the kind of voters who should never have access to a ballot. They’re the kind of lazy narrowminded voters who ruin the Oscars year after year.”
Or they are the people who make it such an arresting spectacle every year, because they have the potential power to turn the Oscars into something other than just another critics’ prize…
We should applaud them, really, the fools.
(How else was Meryl Streep going to get an annual nomination which in turn enables her to cry foul play AFTER the nominations announcement, when really she could have done it BEFORE, so voters could consider voting for something more substantial than her tired mannerisms)
“And who could turn down an extra hour of swearing and sex?”
I could!
That film was plenty overlong the way it is. What about a two hour version with the worst (or just plain redundant) scenes cut out? Marty needs an editor who hasn’t known him for 40-odd years…
(just trying to revive my old “Scorsese troll”-schtick, so take this with a grain of salt, please)
I rebut the idea that a lot of AMPAS members refuse to watch 12YAS. Some, yes, a lot, no. If 12YAS was a small contender, like say, Nebraska with 5 nods, yes. But it’s a 9 time nominee and a huge contender. It might be the last screener in the stack that they would see, but they will get to it before the deadline. (I know a SAG member who dreaded in watching 12YAS and it was the last screener he watched; and while he didn’t love it, he voted for all of the nominees in the SAG ballot).
The longer stretch period between the guild awards and when Oscar voting period ends works in 12YAS’s favor. The people who refuse to watch, I suspect, is a very minority who would never vote for it in the first place.
Patrick, I’m in complete agreement with your slant on the same point. We might have different things in mind.
I’d say we’re both right:
If Everybody in Hollywood had an Oscar ballot, 12 Years a Slave would lose. – Patrick
If Everybody in America had an Oscar ballot, 12 Years a Slave would lose. – Ryan
I’ll go further than that: The Oscar voters who have not seen 12 Years a Slave by now are not the Oscar voters who would ever vote for 12 Years a Slave. They’re also the kind of voters who should never have access to a ballot. They’re the kind of lazy narrowminded voters who ruin the Oscars year after year.
Someone probably mentioned this already (I didn’t take the time to look through all 74 comments), but Anthony Minghella’s picture was left out of the Best Director portraits. 🙁
I’m glad that you clarified your position in this article, Sasha. My thoughts jibe much better with yours now. I have always felt that 12 Years would play more strongly at the Oscars than anywhere else. I envision Best Pic for sure, Screenplay, Supporting Actress, and perhaps even Ejiofor over McCaugh, though I have to admit that MM is riding quite a wave and will be tough to beat. Ejiofor’s performance just seems like an Oscar-winner to me.
It is the question of Director that I’m waffling on. I think you’re saying that history favors 12 Years for a Director (and therefore perhaps Pic) win. I’m still kind of feeling Cuaron, though I hope I’m wrong and that McQueen will rightfully take his statue.
Thanks for clarifying something that isn’t easily clarifiable, I’m afraid.
Ryan Adams, the more correct statement would be “the closer the size of a voting body comes to approaching the size of the US FILM INDUSTRY, the worse 12 Years a Slave would fare.” And this is my point, you can’t be a consensus film if not enough people have watched you.
For AMPAS, I suspect that most people have already made up their minds; if they haven’t seen 12YAS by now, there’s very little that could change that. This is typically why final ballots are filled out almost immediately after they’re mailed (as Kris Tapley pointed out).
@keifer
I also had that dream last night. I didn’t want to wake up and ended up being late for work.
I predict a Marty sweep for his epic “The Wolf of Wall Street”: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, Best Screenplay.
This is a breakdown of which precursors (PGA, DGA, BAFTA) matched the Oscar BP, ever since BAFTA moved its ceremony back before the Oscars:
2001 – PGA, BAFTA
2002 – DGA
2003 – PGA, DGA
2004 – PGA, DGA, BAFTA
2005 – DGA
2006 – none
2007 – DGA
2008 – PGA, DGA
2009 – PGA, DGA, BAFTA
2010 – PGA, DGA, BAFTA
2011 – PGA, DGA, BAFTA
2012 – PGA, DGA, BAFTA
2013 – PGA, DGA, BAFTA
2014 – ???
So does BAFTA have a big influence on the Oscars? Meh, not really. PGA and DGA were already doing a good job influencing the Oscars before BAFTA moved back. And with the exception of 2001, BAFTA only matched the Oscars when both the PGA and DGA did as well.
Ryan – I agree with your view from the podcast that 12YAS can still win. In fact, I expect it to.
Y’all are of course right that hard movies don’t tend to win, and that many don’t want to see 12YAS.
But the extra week will really help the movie in that regard- there’s more time for most people to get around to it.
Once they do there’s no question which movie has more gravitas and they like gravitas. You guys have said it yourselves so many times in the podcasts. How can they vote against Ghandi? Against Schindlers List? Heck even the Kings Speech tapped into that by giving itself faux gravitas.
Sure, they haven’t done this for a slavery movie yet but they hadn’t done it for a Ghandi or holocaust movie either.
And this movie, while realistic, is not as brutal as it could be given the reality of the institution and given McQueen’s other two movies.
And while it makes some white folk look bad, it also has a redeeming white character and arguably two of them. And it is not exactly an ambiguous ending/sad ending/ponder the meaning of life movie ala the social network that goes way over their head. It’s not a rainbow happy ending but the movie is sufficiently watered away from how brutal it could be if it chose to to pass Academy muster.
Fair enoug, Patrick.
But as I said if the race is between just AH and 12YAS, then I can see your point being valid. But it’s a 3 way race, which makes things more complicated.
And the ensemble win isn’t that indicative, especially since we don’t know the vote tally. It could be very close. The fact that Lupita defeated Lawrence shows that AH wasn’t necessarily the clear winner in ensemble.
Furthermore, the ensemble win translating into BP win is 50% since 1995. But you know what is also similarly indicative? A SAG win (in any acting category) also bodes a 50% chance of winning BP at the Oscars.
And if the race is between Gravity and 12YAS, then the odds are in favor of the latter. All of the BP winners, except for the innaugural SAG year, all went to films that have an ensemble nod at SAG, something that Gravity doesn’t have.
And by the way, what is AACTA and its significance. And you’re forgetting to list BAFTA as a potential outcome.
BIG yes to the extended cut of Wolf of Wall Street! Probably Marty’s intended version.
And who could turn down an extra hour of swearing and sex?
So my point stands, 12YAS doesn’t fare too well when the voting body is large.
My guess would be that the closer the size of a voting body comes to approaching the size of the general US population, the worse 12 Years a Slave would fare.
Alan, last year, SAG final ballots were mailed on January 2nd, and the deadline for filling them out was the day after the Oscar nominations were announced. So Affleck’s snub barely affected Argo’s SAG win. Argo didn’t win because of sympathy; Argo won because it was the industry favorite all along (despite what the directors branch thought).
So my point stands, 12YAS doesn’t fare too well when the voting body is large.
It’s only fair to point out that , unlike Oscars , Gravity won a screenplay nomination at the BAFTA …it was STEVE POND who pointed out that if it had won a screenplay nom at Oscar then the race would have been essentially over
A screenplay nom was probably because it was shot over here in London and was therefore looked upon more favorably than some American movies
Side note: http://collider.com/the-wolf-of-wall-street-extended-cut-4-hours/
I would LOVE a 4 hour version! 🙂
patrick, If the race is just between AH and 12YAS, then I can see your point.
Last year was weird. Argo got a lot of sympathy votes due to Ben Affleck’s Oscar director snub. Every guild was blowing him every chance they got after that. Not a good case to base anything on.
Should I name the source of that movie line? I don’t want to over-explain such a delicate crack…
I just want to see what my avatar looks like.
Patrick
“phantom, because AH didn’t tie for the PGA win means it wasn’t close? ”
Yes, that’s exactly what it means. It was third at best. THIRD. Ergo…NOT CLOSE.
Even winning the WGA couldn’t restore the blemished perception /track record of American Hustle now that it lost both the PGA and the DGA. IF it wins the WGA and exceeds expectations at Bafta, now THEN it will be back in the game and seriously going for the win. But that’s a big if. Brits love honoring Brits. That means 12 Years a Slave with its Brit director and actors. OK, maybe Gravity with its British producer. OR all-around British crowdpleaser Philomena. What doesn’t really seem right up their alley is AMERICAN Hustle.
Ryan, that begs a question….
*******
I entirely agree with Gregoire’s comment – two timeless contenders…. after three years of narcissism, IMO. However, AH could win ACE and narcissism come roaring back… at least into our conversations.
“A lady’s pussy.”
So what does a dude’s pussy look like? Nevermind, I didn’t just ask that.
Alan, I explained earlier why the SAG ensemble loss is more significant than people think. Last year, Argo managed to beat both Lincoln and SLP (which boasts a lot of the same actors in AH), even though Argo had far less chances of winning any acting awards compared to 12YAS this year. 12YAS got 4 SAG nods while AH only got 2. So there’s no denying that 12YAS had an excellent shot at winning the SAG but it didn’t.
It’s true that GRAVITY was shot here in the UK using Brit Techies and they COULD show loyalty to the movie by voting for it , but somehow I doubt it
As I’ve said before , 12 YAS is perceived as a very ”British movie ” with a Brit Director and actors and supporting it is seen as a patriotic duty , rather like a sporting event between the UK and the US , with GRAVITY perceived as being an American movie with a famous actor/actress …there is simply no way , just no way that they would award it BP over 12 YAS …it is David and Goliath , the small Brit movie industry against the might of Hollywood
The bookies odds are merely a reflection of public support for it with 12 YAS at 1- 6 ON and GRAVITY at 6-1 against …for there to be such a spread it’s clear to me that there is virtually no one in the UK with enough confidence to bet on GRAVITY….surely if there was ground support for Gravity word of it would have leaked out to friends and family members and would have given folks enough confidence to take the bookies to the cleaners …it’s not happening , au contraire , folks have bet large amounts of money on 12 YAS and with good reason …the bookies sometimes make mistakes , but they are NEVER this far out
the Directors race really is a close race and the bookies reflect that with CUARON roughly 4-6 on and Mcqueen 6-4 …this is really how a close race is reflected
That’s a pussy. A lady’s pussy.
It sounds like Sasha has given up and went into defeatist mode again ; three weeks ago it was ”American Hustle is gonna win ” and we all know how that one turned out ; now , it’s ”GRAVITY is gonna win BAFTA ”
GRAVITY aint going to win BAFTA …12 YAS will win easily , infact it will sweep and possibly even win a Bafta for Steve Mcqueen
The likely scenario is 12 YAS BP, BA, BSA, BSAs , BSP with maybe Gravity winning BD and best british movie …however , it wouldn’t surprise me if it went home with just Techs
Patrick,
The ensemble win at SAG for AH was expected. It’s an American cast with greats like Robert DeNiro. It’s also the most “ensembly” acting, with everyone gather around in scenes and stuff. It was a natural choice. DeNiro vs. Brad Pitt. Easy.
Remember, that Lupita defeated Lawrence there. That was also a big indicator.
To me at SAG, it was a draw between AH and 12YAS.
Patrick
“phantom, because AH didn’t tie for the PGA win means it wasn’t close?”
Yes, that’s exactly what it means. It wasn’t even in the top2 therefore it couldn’t have been close to No1 or even if it was, it couldn’t get between the No1 and No2. At best it was in third place. THIRD. If there hadn’t been a tie, we would have never known whether it was close or not, but with two films winning and neither being American Hustle, we KNOW there were not one but two films that could beat it.
@Stephen Holt It looks like a reindeer with shoulder pads.
I’m just grateful that we are sitting here debating two films (Gravity and 12 Years A Slave) that will still be considered great movies in twenty years. We’re actually talking about great films, game-changing films in very different ways! Not Argo, not the King’s Speech. Not something pleasant and ‘nice’. One a narrative milestone on America’s defining sin, the other a technical masterpiece that changed the way movies will be made.
As long as one or the other ultimately succeeds, I have no preference frankly.
Watch for Leo taking BAFTA and then the Oscar. Called it.
I think “gravity” is better than “12 years” and i dont think its that close. but if someone thinks “12 years” is superior that’s one thing- but clearly the best directed film of the year is “gravity”- congrats to the dga. i don’t think that’s even debatable.
phantom, because AH didn’t tie for the PGA win means it wasn’t close? How do you know? Did you count the final tally? If so, please share it with us.
My observation still stands: the larger the voting body, the less chance of 12YAS winning.
HFPA (100) – 12YAS
BFCA (250) – 12YAS
AACTA (2,000) – Gravity
PGA (5,000) – 12YAS/Gravity
AMPAS (6,000) – ???
DGA (15,000) – Gravity
SAG (100,000) – AH
Simone, sci-fi is fiction with imaginative science, which does not apply to Gravity. However, to most people’s eyes, anything in space is sci-fi so it doesn’t matter how well you define it. But at the end of the day, Gravity doesn’t have any of the wacky imaginative elements (time travel, futuristic robots, aliens, etc.) that Oscar voters typically dislike.
FilmFatale, I love Gravity, I love Cuaron, I love Sandra. Ok… I got that out of my system.
I also LOVE, LOVE science fiction films, it is my favorite and preferred film genre. Films that take place in outer space are sci-fi. Films that take place on planet earth involving aliens, mutations, end of the world crap, etc. Gravity is a science fiction film because the science part is dealing with the scientific expedition of being in OUTER SPACE, and it’s fiction because this story is not based on real life.
I cannot believe I have to explain that Gravity is a kick ass awesome science fiction film. Jesus.
again…. why is Gravity considered sci-fi? It’s 127 Hours with better scenery, and just as realistically plausible. Two techs get in trouble fixing a space station…. it could be happening over our heads right now.
12 Years will sweep BAFTA’s and here is why: the British ALSO have a strong history of slavery / the slave trade.
And here’s one difference between Brits and Americans: Brits celebrate that part of their history because the end of the slave trade / slavery in Britain signaled a huge change in British national identity at the beginning of the nineteenth century. As their narrative goes, that period of history is something that Brits can be proud of–through literature, parliamentary speeches, etc, the Brits overcame their racism and showed their humanity. It is a period of history about which they can be proud and certainly in comparison to America.
I don’t think we should underestimate how much of British national identity is tied to ending slavery and how this affects the BAFTA race. It is going to sweep (director will likely still go Cuaron).
Simone-
Can you help us understand why Gravity is a “sci-fi film” please? It is a simple yet powerful story of human survival very much like All is Lost or any number of other movies. There is no “fiction” to the proceedings in Gravity and no trappings of science fiction. Just because a film happens to be about astronauts repairing a satellite does not make it science fiction. Come on, people — the movie is a meditation of human fortitude that asks some pretty powerful questions (Why should i go on living if there is nothing in the world left for me?)in an ingeniously straightforward story.
I don’t understand why people keep saying 12 Years is a more important film than Gravity. Just the subject matter shouldn’t make a film important.
Oh Efe…. sigh. You are either don’t understand the term ‘importance’, you’re not American, have no compassion, don’t understand the importance of history, you’re willfully dense, or just don’t give a damn.
Gravity is a fine sci-fi film, but it won’t be referenced as an artifact in discourse about several hundred years of history in America, like 12YAS.
sigh.
It’s unfortunate for Gravity that it got into the best British film category, when it’s arguably not more British than 12 YAS. Some voters will want to protest and vote for Philomena instead in the british film category and 12YAS will receive all of its votes where it matters most, in BP (whereas some voters will vote solely for Gravity in british film and then choose something else for BP to spread the wealth). So really, 12YAS will benefit the most from Gravity’s dubious british film nomination.
I can just imagine the sounds of heads exploding when 12 Years a Slave wins best picture and Gravity wins Best British Film….
What about Judi Dench winning Best Actress? They loved Philomena.
I don’t understand why people keep saying 12 Years is a more important film than Gravity. Just the subject matter shouldn’t make a film important. I actually think 10 years later Gravity will be the one that we still remember.
In a perfect world, both the BAFTAs and Oscars would not choose 12 Years in Pic and Directing.
I predict though, American Hustle will win big at BAFTAs. Remember last year SLP only had 3 noms but still managed to beat Argo & Lincoln for Adapted Screenplay. This year Hustle has like 10 noms, to me we have a Hustle sweep in our hands.
As for acting goes, if Amy Adams wins the BAFTA she wins the Oscar. If anybody else wins, Cate Blanchett will win the Oscar.
Gravity’s controversial nomination for Best British Film has done some damage. I think they’ll go for 12YAS for Best Film and Philomena for Best British Film.
I think BAFTA will go for 12 Years a Slave. BAFTA membership tend to go for Actor films which have a degree of timelessness about them. They awarded Howards End over Unforgiven, Brokeback Mountain over Crash. They occasionally make the odd choice – Four Weddings and The Full Monty for example – but I think they will want to reward an important film – and 12 Years a Slave is a much more important film than Gravity.
I think Steve McQueen will also snag Best Director – they’ll want to reward a British director who has serious artistry.
It will be a close call between Philomena and Gravity for Best British Film. I think Philomena will just nudge it – BAFTA have a lot of affection for both Judi Dench and Steve Coogan. Gravity will pick up in the technical categories.
Chiwetel Ejiofor will take Best Actor with McConaghey not there, and I think Nyongo will take Supporting Actress – although I wouldn’t be surprised by a Sally Hawkins shock.
It will be an interesting night – but judging from tweets of BAFTA members they have enjoyed Gravity but have been moved by 12 Year a Slave – and I think thst will sway their decision. I can’t see American Hustle featuring.
I went back and looked at BAFTA’s Overall Best Picture Winners from the last set of awards all the way back to 1970. Thw level of strong correspondence between BAFTA’s BP winner and the Oscar BP winner seems to be at its strongest over the past five to six years or so. Otherwise, it happens in spurts only it seems–I’m not sure whether this means anything or not. I apologize if this link is inappropriate. Maybe we will soon see the “BAFTA Overall Winner VS. the AMPAS Overall Winner” chart soon?
You can, of course, go back further than the 1970s….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAFTA_Award_for_Best_Film#1970s
It would be great if Chiwetel wins this. If I were voting this year, it would be a tough call between Chiwetel and McConaughey, but I would give it to Chiwetel for a stunner performance. I think it’s certainly a performance worthy of a Best Actor win. Can the BAFTAs change the options for Actor with a Chiwetel win? I hope so.
I’ve been saying this on my blog for MONTHS now. Bet on the Brits. They got Tilda her surprise Oscar in a five-way race that no one could call. They did the same for Marion Cotillard for “La Vie En Rose” the year when she was running neck and neck with Julie Christie for “Away From Her.” Hey! Just realized that was the SAME YEAR!
Fassbender and Ejiofor will both win and it will be a sweep. Lupita, too, of course.
Where the REALLY big surprise could come is Best Actress which they might just give to the wonderful Judi Dench for “Philomena” who is of course British.
Now I’ll post this to see what my Avatar has turned into!
Patrick
“phantom, how do you know AH “couldn’t even come close” to the PGA?”
Uhmm, there was a TIE, meaning American Hustle wasn’t even top2 which was rather surprising considering it was the frontrunner going in.
Looking at the history of BAFTA since they moved their dates to precede the Oscars they have matched BP on 7 out of the past 13 best pics which is slightly more than half. I would not say that this is an indicator of much. Granted the last 5 years they have matched exactly, but still not a strong indicator. So I would say that it wouldn’t change the course in and of itself. BUT should it be marketed to hell as such, then yes I would say that it would have an impact.
Mark Kermode is a BAFTA member, and if his enthusiasm for 12 Years a Slave is any indication then I think it’s safe to say that 12 Years a Slave will easily clean house at the BAFTAs in a few weeks. The critics also seem to be going nuts for it over there.
I think at BAFTA it could go Gravity Best Picture, Philomena Best British Film. And even if they do give Best Picture to 12 Years a Slave, I still think Cuaron will get director. And he fully deserves it.
I hate to say this. I thought 12 Years a Slave was an excellent film. But I have had no desire to watch it again. That just shows a failure on my part to wish to rewatch brutality on such a visceral level.
I wonder about calling Gravity sci-fi just because it’s setting is earth’s orbit. If you made the same movie on a submarine, would it be sci-fi? Gravity’s astronauts are doing real world activities, activities that could be taking place right now up in orbit.
It’s not as if the Gravity astronauts are fighting space battles with evil aliens.
love that picture. so many great and deserving directors
So many thoughts. The ones jumping to mind are:
BAFTA will indeed provide substantial insight.
In a perfect world, Id like to see 12YAS win BP and Gravity win BD.
Both films are masterful. But I was more moved by 12.
Actor – wonder if Leo can just ride a wave that may have peaked for McConaughey 3 weeks ago? Orrrrrr … McConaughey is just the clear winner.
well i finally saw 12YAS and i absolutely loved it , its such an emotional film !
its very hard to watch as a black woman even more , am i ever glad i was born in the late 20th century…
lupita gave such a raw visceral performance i cannot fanthom why people are even putting jennifer lawrence performance on same level!
i’ll be very happy if ejiofor chiwetel won as best actor , he really sold the film for me , what his character goes through is incredible
that said leo is my sentimental favourite ! so i’ll be happy if he gets it !
i also enjoyed the score and cinematography in 12YAS!
yes its a hard movie but its also a very essential movie that captures a particular experience of going from being a free man to being sold into slavery and living that life of horror without shying away from showing its brutality
i’ve always heard and seen stuff from slaves perspective but i hadnt heard about black from the north being sold into slavery !
its been a day and i’m still thinking about this movie, the characters : the slaves, the different depiction of slave masters cumberbatch/fassbender ,the stiffling psychological hold they had on slaves
topic aside its really a beautifully well made movie , and what i expect from a best picture winner ! a film that resonates with you long after you’ve seen it , sparks debate and brings to the forefront a subject society shouldnt forget or just pretend to remember one month in a year !
my best pic along with HER , two movies i feel depict best the complexity of the human condition past and future, where we came from and where it would seem we’re going !
i only have nebraska , captain phillips and philomena yet to see for best pic nominees
i don’t mind director going to cuaron as i can understand the argument for it!
best actor ejiofor or leo , MM is pretty good too!
leto or fassbender for BSA , lupita for BSA nobody else!
cate blanchett or meryl streep for BA but CA is def the DDL of this year she’s got this locked and sealed!
i enjoyed blue jasmine august osage county and wolf of wall street immensely ,and fell in love with HER a gem of a movie !
so yeah lets hope BAFTA swing things back clearly in favor of 12YAS , i always knew i was going to love it once i saw the trailer so many months ago , but i didnt expect to feel this emotional about it , so conscious of its importance and meaning to me and what it should mean to the industry at large and audience that mcqueen brought this film to our attention
i would have been disappointed had the film disappointed me in not delivering what it seemed to promise but it did! that’s always a good thing and a relief!
now i can honestly get behind the support for it !
Sasha- finally listened to last nights podcast. I hear you that Cuaron isn’t exactly the showpiece for the plight of the Latino in Hollywood or the USA- but neither is McQueen.
You mentioned that Cuaron has had an illustrious career but unless I’m missing something, so has McQueen.
Respectfully, I just don’t see that diminishing the significance of it anymore than, as an example, Obama’s Harvard/Harvard career diminishes his achievement and his election.
Our country has a huge class problem. Classism is pervasive. Few are those that have found success in Hollywood that came from below the poverty line, few succeed nowadays, sadly, starting from horrific circumstances. Social mobility has significantly decreased.
The sad result of this is that even those people of color or women, etc that achieve mightily tend to come from middle class backgrounds that don’t have horrifically difficult circumstances beyond, of course, their race/gender, but that not ought to be held against them.
From everything I’ve read on the internet,it seems like 12YAS is supposed to clean up at BAFTAs. Any other outcome would be shocking. If Gravity actually wins Best Picture at BAFTA then its a gamechanger, then I’m willing to admit I was wrong and Gravity is going all the way Oscar night and not 12YAS.
However, all signs still point to 12YAS as Best Picture at BAFTA and Oscar.
phantom, how do you know AH “couldn’t even come close” to the PGA? And who knows, maybe 12YAS “couldn’t even come close” to winning the SAG ensemble either? And AH beating 12YAS was still surprising, considering what happened last year: SLP also had superstars plus a strong lead actress and supporting actor yet still lost to Argo (which had far less chances of winning any acting awards compared to 12YAS). And now, Lupita even beat Lawrence for supporting actress, yet 12YAS couldn’t manage the win. I agree it’s not as significant as the PGA win, but there’s no denying that 12YAS had a pretty good shot at winning the SAG.
Patrick
“Also, note that at SAG, with Gravity not being eligible, it was between 12YAS and AH, and 12YAS couldn’t come out on top.”
True, but then again were we REALLY surprised that SAG went with the cast full of superstars ? Come to think of it, it was to be expected.
I think the fact that American Hustle that ended up winning SAG Ensemble but couldn’t come even close to the PGA (and DGA) says more about the race than the fact that 12 Years a Slave couldn’t pull off SAG.
@m1,
Seriously speaking, though, Ryan is correct: it looks like a pic of porthole and anchor.
I’d never thought of porthole before for some reason. But its nose and mouth combined, that part of my avatar always looks like anchor to me from day one as well.
Ryan says: “JPNS Viewer,
Your avatar looks like an anchor now.
Nautical theme — porthole and anchor.”
—
Don’t tell my heart, my achy breaky heart
I just don’t think it’d understand
If you tell my heart, my achy breaky heart
He might blow up and kill this maaaan . . . . : )
“Porthole” . . . *facepalm, like, forever and a day, while typing with another hand*
Thank you very freaky much for ruining my day, Ryan.
[lol, just kiddin’]
Nautical theme — porthole and anchor.
To me it looks more like a snake.
12 Years will sweep the BAFTAS.
They love to seem ‘bold’. But when it snubs certain films for being ‘too American’, like Lincoln last year – I can’t help but not taken them too seriously, in terms of what they represent Oscar-wise.
I think because it’s so close the British will decide it this year. Which is unfortunate because I think they have bad taste. I blame the scones. But I don’t think it means that BAFTA will necessarily tell us what their decision is. It’s that close.
btw, how do you get the nifty boxes around text?
Darn it, everyone taking credit 🙂 So much time left until voting begins/ends that AMPAS is bound to catch up with seeing 12 YEARS. BAFTA will show the way, making easy to predict what Oscar will do? Whoever made those points before, Paddy Mulholland, Jerry Grant?
p.s. I’m just messing 🙂
I also think 12 Years a Slave is going to kick some bloody ass with BAFTA. If 12 Years doesn’t win BP there, then, and only then, will I abandon 12 Years. For now, I’m hanging tough with 12 Years.
12 Years did very well with the British box-office too, if I’m not mistaken. A few AD posters who are British claim that 12 Years is huge over there. I think 12 Years will win Best Picture and Gravity will win (perhaps) Best British Film, if they feel they must give Gravity a BP citation.
JPNS Viewer,
Your avatar looks like an anchor now.
Nautical theme — porthole and anchor.
Sidenote
Re the new layout, somehow I prefer the older one but the white-creamy background is all right to me as well.
That said, I find the font size and its type too commonplace — not to mention how the new, circular avatars frame defeats the purpose of its older square-shaped, more masculine physiognomy, as well as, in my opinion, [no offense, AD] visually helping to ruin the otherwise unique avatar’s Feng Shui of mine . . . .
Lots of people offering stats from previous years; I’ll offer stats from just this past year. Winners of major awards (and their membership counts):
HFPA (100) – 12YAS
BFCA (250) – 12YAS
AACTA (2,000) – Gravity
PGA (5,000) – 12YAS/Gravity
AMPAS (6,000) – ???
DGA (15,000) – Gravity
SAG (100,000) – AH
The trend I see is that with larger memberships, votes lean away from 12YAS and toward Gravity. And if I had to guess, I’d say the reason for this is that not enough people have seen 12YAS while almost everyone has seen Gravity. Also, note that at SAG, with Gravity not being eligible, it was between 12YAS and AH, and 12YAS couldn’t come out on top.
Kris Tapley takes a good long look at this over at In Contention where he believes there’s a good chance the BAFTA awards could be pivotal in a very very tight race.
If anybody was listening during the podcast last night, I said the same thing.
😕
“it might take the British Academy to reward 12 Years a Slave where our DGA couldn’t. ”
I don’t know, but this statement reads (to me at least) like you think Cuaron didn’t deserve the win for his masterful direction of “Gravity.” He more than deserved it and the DGA did what they should have done, in my opinion.
Bryce, in another post, I said I think they kind of look like marbles. But in a good way. You are right.
By the way I love the new comments/avatars’ look. Classy. You guys should keep it for a while. Am I right or am I right?
To answer the article title’s question, hell yes. Ignore the BAFTAs at your own risk. They have the greatest overlap with the Academy of any of the precursors. They often foretell the surprises on Academy morning (even this year they foretold all four Hustle stars getting nominated, if not the major acting snubs). When a race is too close to call, BAFTA’s choice is often the Academy’s choice. Generally, the only scenarios in which that is not necessarily the case are 1) BAFTA voted for one of their own, 2) BAFTA snubbed something under-seen in the UK or otherwise too American (Blind Side, Dallas), or 3) BAFTA’s choice is fluky because it’s instead of a true frontrunner who has no major drawbacks (Silver Linings beating Argo’s script last year, or even Riva beating Lawrence; but contrast Alan Arkin winning there first when Eddie Murphy wasn’t even nominated even as Jennifer Hudson still won).
So if BAFTA clearly swings in favor of one film, then that could be the tell. But it will remain too close to call if Slave and Cuaron repeat their wins, or if they spread the wealth with wins for Slave, Philomena, and Cuaron. A clusterfuck.
It’s not over yet.
Anyway, it looks to me American Hustle, despite mostly being overlooked more or less when it comes to relatively major categories, however could possibly hope for the respective Screenplay category, as well as Production Design, Costume Design, Hair-and-Makeup. And I’ll still keep an eye on JLaw nonetheless.
The BAFTAs are going to go wild for 12YAS. It’s going to do what the Oscars can’t or won’t do.
I don’t know what bothers me more, the fact that 12 Years a Slave isn’t a sure thing or the fact that the portrait of all the Best Directors winners is still missing Robert Benton. Coppola should have won that year anyway, but who made that graphic?
BAFTA will go for 12 Years a Slave. They were always supposed to embrace fellow countryman Steve McQueen’s film over the other heavyweights, further proving that it IS the frontrunner in BP.
Where could actually make a difference is in the actor categories. If DiCaprio wins – without McConaughey in the race he seems to be battling it out with the Brit Ejiofor – that could signal the kind of wide, transatlantic industry support that may be enough for an Oscar upset.
With Leto missing the cut here, Fassbender seems to be a done deal and if/when that happens, he will be a major threat for Leto. Then the two most important precursor awards (SAG vs. BAFTA) will be split between them and though one is considered the frontrunner the other is in a considerably stronger BP contender. So it could be closer than we think and Fassbender could pull a Swinton (Bafta winner who failed to win Golden Globe or SAG, surprised at the Oscars)…especially if the Academy goes for 12 years a slave in a big way.
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my hope is that Academy Members are, finally, watching 12 Years. My belief is that if they do, they will see how truly powerful it is and that it will win on its merits.