Predicting the Golden Globes

Don’t forget to enter our contest to predict the Golden Globes. We’re going to be giving away the two winning films on DVD.  

The Golden Globes unfurl Sunday, long after Oscar ballots have been turned in.  They can impact winners but not nominees.  They can help shift momentum for one particular winner or another depending on how the win goes down. For instance, if it’s a happy win, a humble speech, it can propel the contender towards their awards sweep.  If it’s a bummer win, where you can feel the energy in the room drop, that can sometimes signal momentum interruptus.

The usual song about the HFPA is that they really like celebrities and will award them at any opportunity.  The other refrain is that they are wooed by films, celebrities and studios to curry favor. I have ever only interviewed one voting Globe member and she couldn’t recall any of that. She said she simply voted for what she liked.

Be that as it may, their choices can sometimes be baffling, sometimes frustrating and sometimes kind of great. You don’t really watch the show to see the winners but to see all of the celebrities get drunk and misbehave.  That’s really the best thing about it. They’re loose and having a good time. By contrast, they are like frozen statues at the Oscars, terrified even to exhale.  Or else bored out of their minds.

The Globes aren’t the industry.  They are foreign journalists and there about 100 of them.  The Producers Guild is really your first taste of the Big Bad Consensus vote, with roughly 4,500 voting members. That’s when the film’s popularity is really put to the test with a preferential ballot and 10 choices.  The Globes, by contrast, have divided their Best Picture and acting categories into drama and musical/comedy.  It isn’t going to be a Sophie’s Choice. 12 Years a Slave AND American Hustle can win.  Expect the latter to clean up.

Here we go with our predictions

Best Picture, Drama

• 12 Years a Slave <–alternate
• Captain Phillips <—dark horse
• Gravity <—Predicted Winner
• Philomena
• Rush

Predicted Winner: Gravity – most of my pundit pals at Gold Derby are predicting 12 Years a Slave and that would be great. It could go either way. I’m expecting Gravity because it is a film people passionately love.  It is a fine choice indeed.  I had heard early on that the Globes folks didn’t “like” 12 Years a Slave.  They went for Avatar over The Hurt Locker – that makes me think they’ll go for Gravity over 12 Years but I am apparently in the minority on that.   But watch out for Captain Phillips.

Best Picture, Comedy

• American Hustle <–Predicted winner
• Her <—alternate
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Nebraska
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Unlike the Drama category, Comedy is easy to call.

Best Director

• Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity <–alternate
• Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave <–Predicted Winner
• Alexander Payne, Nebraska
• David O. Russell, American Hustle <–alternate

Were Steve McQueen to win the Globe for directing he would be the first black director to do so.  You can’t imagine the power in that.  I don’t know if that propel him towards the win or not.  I have no idea but I don’t think 12 Years will go home empty handed.  I hope it wins big.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine <—Predicted Winner
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity <–alternate
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
• Kate Winslet, Labor Day

Part of me thinks Bullock will win this if they really really love Gravity.  Otherwise, it’s Blanchett’s to lose.

Best Actor

• Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave <–but maybe…
• Idris Elba, Mandela
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaghey, Dallas Buyers Club <–alternate
• Robert Redford, All Is Lost <—predicted winner

I just don’t see how you invite Robert Fucking Redford to your party and not give him the prize.  I mean, I don’t know, who knows.  I can see any of them winning – these are all incredible performances. All of them. Not one of these winners would surprise me but I have a feeling Redford will take it. Gold Derby says Chiwetel Ejiofor will take it.

Best Actor Comedy

• Christian Bale, American Hustle <–but maybe
• Bruce Dern, Nebraska <–predicted winner
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street <–alternate
• Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
• Joaquin Phoenix, Her

Pundits at Gold Derby are split between Leonardo DiCaprio for Wolf of Wall Street (big star) and Bruce Dern for Nebraska (maybe more moving performance).  It’s hard to say – hell, Bale could get it.  I was going to go for DiCaprio – I am split down the middle on it actually.  In the end, I have to think that Dern’s campaigning will have made the difference here.  I might change this prediction in the eleventh hour.

Best Actress Comedy

• Amy Adams, American Hustle <–alternate
• Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
• Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
• Julia Louis Dreyfuss, Enough Said
• Meryl Streep, August: Osage County <–predicted winner

Will they really give Streep another win? Probably not but it’s hard to not predict the best performance of the five.  As good as Amy Adams is — and she’ll probably win — Streep just surpasses her and everyone else.

Best Supporting Actor

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Daniel Bruhl, Rush
• Bradley Cooper, American Hustle <–alternate
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club <–predicted winner

Best Supporting Actress

• Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle <–predicted winner
• Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave <–alternate
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County <–but maybe…
• June Squibb, Nebraska

Best Screenplay

• Her, Spike Jonze
• Nebraska, Bob Nelson
• Philomena, Jeff Pope and Steve Coogan
• 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley <–alternate
• American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell <-predicted winner

Best Foreign Language Film

• Blue is the Warmest Color <–predicted winner
• The Great Beauty
• The Hunt
• The Past
• The Wind Rises <—alternate

Best Original Song

• Atlas (Hunger Games)
• Let it Go (Frozen) <—alternate
• Ordinary Love (Mandela)
• Please Mr. Kennedy (Inside Llewyn Davis) <—predicted winner
• Sweeter Fiction (One Chance)

Best Score

• All is Lost, Alex Ebert
• Mandela, Alex Heffes
• Gravity, Steven Price <–predicted winner
• Book Thief, John Williams
• 12 Years a Slave, Hans Zimmer <—alternate

Best Animated Feature

• The Croods <—alternate
• Despicable Me 2
• Frozen –predicted winner

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TELEVISION

Best TV Movie or Miniseries

• American Horror Story <–alternate
• Behind the Candelabra <—predicted winner
• Dancing on the Edge
• Top of the Lake
• The White Queen

Best TV Series, Drama

• Breaking Bad <–predicted winner
• Downton Abbey <—alternate
• The Good Wife
• House of Cards
• Masters of Sex

Best TV Series, Comedy

• Brooklyn Nine-Nine
• The Big Bang Theory
• Girls
• Modern Family <—predicted winner
• Parks & Recreation

Best Actress, Miniseries or TV Movie

• Helena Bonham Carter, Taylor & Burton
• Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen
• Jessica Lange, American Horror Story <—predicted winner
• Helen Mirren, Phil Spector <—alternate
• Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake

Best Actor, Miniseries or TV Movie

• Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra,
• Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra <—predicted winner
• Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
• Idris Elba, Luther
• Al Pacino, Phil Spector

Best Actress, Drama

• Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
• Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
• Taylor Schilling, Orange is the New Black
• Kerry Washington, Scandal <—predicted winner
• Robin Wright, House of Cards

Best Actor, Drama

• Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad <—predicted winner
• Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
• Michael Sheen, Masters of Sex
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards <—alternate
• James Spader, Black List

Best Actress, Comedy

• Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
• Lena Dunham, Girls <—alternate
• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep <—predicted winner
• Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation

Best Actor, Comedy

• Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
• Don Cheadle, House of Lies
• Michael J. Fox, The Michael J. Fox Show <—predicted winner
• Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory <—alternate
• Andy Samberg, Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Best Supporting Actor, TV Movie, Series or Miniseries

• Josh Charles, The Good Wife
• Rob Lowe, Behind the Candelabra
• Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad <—predicted winner
• Corey Stoll, House of Cards <—alternate
• Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

Best Supporting Actress, TV Movie, Series or Miniseries

• Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
• Janet McTeer, The White Queen
• Hayden Panettiere, Nashville
• Monica Potter, Parenthood
• Sofia Vergara, Modern Family <—predicted winner

How about you, Oscarwatchers?