Screen Actors Guild Preview and Predictions & No Guts, Glory

My No Guts No Glory:

Big Bang Theory for Comedy Ensemble
Oprah Winfrey for Supporting
Dallas Buyers Club for ensemble

Predictions after the jump.

The SAG awards unfurl tonight as we march towards our consensus for what film will be named best of 2013, one of the best years for cinema we’ve seen in a while. It was such a good year, in fact, that films like Inside Llewyn Davis couldn’t even make the Best Picture cut. You can’t say any dud took its place either. It’s the nine slot problem. Had they kept a solid ten, Llewyn Davis would have been the tenth. Either way, we’re here to talk about actors.

There are a couple of things to know about the SAG at the outset. They nominate by a committee of around 2k.  But they vote with a giant consensus of 100,000.  They have, by far, the most diverse membership of any of the guilds, which is how both Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer and The Help for ensemble managed to win in 2011.  Unlike the DGA, the PGA and Oscar, the SAG actually contains members of color — think about it. Television and film are full of minority players who rarely get a chance at the bigger roles but they sure as shit have a vote, my friends.

But — and this is a big butt – they also tend to award celebrity. While everyone who votes on film awards, I’ll go ahead and include critics this year – specifically the New York and National Society of Film Critics, seem to get a mood boost by voting for celebrities.   We like our stars, we humans.   That means someone popular tends to trump all.  What this could mean heading into the guilds is Jennifer Lawrence could win supporting again after winning at the Globes but then perhaps not win the Oscar.  Winning back to back Oscars is a rare feat indeed.  Although where Lawrence is concerned, the sky is the limit. To be that pretty and that talented and that young, to have starred in the highest grossing film of 2013 – Lawrence is the prom queen but she’s also beyond reproach. The worst you can say about her is that she’s too young to play the part she plays in American Hustle.

I fully expect Cate Blanchett to triumph in Best Actress. There is a good chance that Matthew McConaughey will win, although there is a tiny chance there could be another surprise, say, Bruce Dern or Chiwetel Ejiofor, but McConaughey appears to have the momentum at this time.

Supporting will be interesting – most are predicting Lawrence to take it. Lupita Nyong’o just won at the Critics Choice but that win won’t impact SAG voters.  This one is a toss-up but I suspect they won’t be able to resist Lawrence. American Hustle might win ensemble, which could mean Nyong’o takes Supporting.  12 Years a Slave could surprise and win ensemble, which I am predicting in a moment of insanity. Then Lawrence might win supporting.

Jared Leto has supporting actor wrapped up, tied with a bow, signed, sealed and delivered.

Thus, here are my predictions — hopefully Ryan will add his as well.

BEST ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine –Stone
• Sandra Bullock, Gravity
• Judi Dench, Philomena
• Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
• Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR

• Bruce Dern, Nebraska
• Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club – Stone
• Forest Whitaker, The Butler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle – Stone
• Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
• Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
• June Squibb, Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Daniel Bruhl, Rush
• James Gandolfini, Enough Said
• Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club — Stone

BEST ENSEMBLE

• 12 Years a Slave — Stone
• American Hustle
• August: Osage County
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The Butler

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE

• All is Lost
• Fast & Furious 6
• Lone Survivor – Stone
• Rush
• Wolverine

TV nominees after the cut:

BEST ACTRESS, Movie/Mini

• Angela Bassett, Betty & Coretta
• Helena Boham Carter, Taylor & Burton
• Holly Hunter, Top of the Lake
• Helen Mirren, Phil Spector
• Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake — Stone

BEST ACTOR, Movie/Mini

• Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
• Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra –Stone
• Jeremy Irons, The Hollow Crown
• Rob Lowe, Killing Kennedy
• Al Pacino, Phil Spector

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

• Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
• Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad –Stone
• Jeff Daniels, Newsroom
• Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

• Claire Danes, Homeland
• Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
• Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abby
• Kerry Washington, Scandal –Stone

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY

• Mayim Bialik, Big Bang Theory
• Julie Bowen, Modern Family
• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Tina Fey, 30 Rock
• Julia Louis Dreyfus, Veep –Stone

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY

• Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock — Stone
• Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Don Cheadle, House of Lies
• Jim Parsons, Big Bang Theory

BEST DRAMA ENSEMBLE

• Boardwalk Empire
• Breaking Bad –Stone
• Downton Abby
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland

BEST COMEDY ENSEMBLE

• 30 Rock
• Arrested Development
• Big Bang –Alternate
• Modern Family –Stone
• Veep