For the first time since the Academy expanded the Best Picture race to more than 5 nominees, the industry seems divided between three strong films. The actors branch clearly loves David O. Russell’s American Hustle, giving it nominations in all four acting categories, plus the SAG ensemble win. The directors and the producers have put their might behind Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity. Finally, 12 Years a Slave, the underdog in this race hangs on with a Producers Guild tie. Some pundits enthusiastically predict their best potential outcome — that Cuaron will win director but that the Academy will “do the right thing” and award 12 Years a Slave Best Picture. Here’s a tip: they won’t.
The Academy, like the DGA, doesn’t ever “do the right thing.” They vote for the film they like best, or the director they like best, or the film they can watch as opposed to the film they can’t. 12 Years a Slave is film many will not even watch, partly because they feel it’s “too violent” (it’s not), or because they don’t want to relive a bummer they feel isn’t an important issue anymore (slavery) or because it’s a “feel bad” as opposed to “feel good” movie. Either way, don’t expect 12 Years a Slave to win Best Picture, not without a DGA win for Steve McQueen.
The race feels tight because the big guilds have split. Clearly there are supporters of all three of these films, with probably large factions voting for the party crashing Wolf of Wall Street. American Hustle’s base has likely been weakened by Wolf’s presence, and perhaps even 12 Years a Slave. Gravity’s supporters are solid because they are voting with their hearts. They were moved in the right way by Gravity – it is life-affirming. It stars a woman. It represents Hollywood’s future whether they like it or not. Tent poles, big budget effects-driven 3D films are the future of Hollywood, international appeal, you get the idea.
But let’s take a closer look at the trajectory of these three films, their presence in the race thus far, and what their wins might ultimately mean .
Gravity hit the ground first, making a splash in Venice. This, after some early word of mouth that the movie was in trouble helped put in place those necessary lowered expectations. Once people saw it many believed it to be a masterpiece. It then hit Telluride where the reaction was similar. But another movie was hitting Telluride at the same time. Brad Pitt had produced Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave. It shattered audiences there at a surprise screening with Pitt in attendance. Suddenly Gravity felt like an afterthought except to some pundits like Kris Tapley, Greg Ellwood and Anne Thompson who firmly believed 12 Years a Slave was never a movie the Academy could handle, nor would ultimately vote for. Gravity, they said, is the one to beat. Turns out, they may very well be right.
After Telluride, Vulture’s Kyle Buchanan wrote a column declaring 12 Years a Slave the film to beat for Best Picture. That set it up as the dreaded defacto frontrunner. That meant critics groups looking to distinguish themselves certainly weren’t going to go for the obvious Oscar bait. That is why no one wants to be the frontrunner out of Telluride and likely why the Gravity folks were thrilled to be shunted to the side at that same time. They knew what they had, just like Argo last year, when the goal was to fly under the radar as long as possible.
After festival season, Captain Phillips and American Hustle screened just before The Wolf of Wall Street. These late breaking films often have a hard time making it in to the race, but these three made such an impact they had no trouble at all. At first American Hustle looked like it wouldn’t be an “awards movie.” Anne Thompson declared good but not awards material. Ditto my own reaction and that of other pundits in attendance, like Steve Pond, Tapley, etc. American Hustle would win the New York Film Critics before reviews had a chance to hit. The group did the same thing last year with Zero Dark Thirty, choosing a film that hadn’t been reviewed or widely seen for their top prize. That put American Hustle squarely in the running but its real prominence wouldn’t become apparent until the BAFTA and later the Oscar nominations gave it acting nominations in all four categories. Hustle would lead the Oscar nominations, along with Gravity. 12 Years a Slave would get all the essential nominations it required but wouldn’t lead.
12 Years a Slave would collect two Best Picture prizes in a row — from the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice. In both cases, however, Alfonso Cuaron was picking up Director. The pundits then circled their theory that the awards will split that way when it comes to the industry. Had 12 Years a Slave won the PGA outright, and Cuaron won the DGA, that might bolster a split. But with Gravity winning the PGA and the DGA that sets it up to win Best Picture now, and thus it must be considered the frontrunner without question, despite what the pundits are telling you.
What do each of these movies represent?
Gravity is a breathtaking ride, a vigorously directed masterpiece by Cuaron with dazzling visual effects and a lonely lead character who takes us on her journey to choose life over death. Ultimately, Gravity’s story is thin. So thin it couldn’t manage a Best Screenplay nod at the Oscars (though BAFTA gave it one). But that only means it plugs more easily into the modern version of a universal story — that kind of film that works in any language, doesn’t need any sort of background information going in and doesn’t require you to think (unless you want to). It is the movie that would fit the tagline used by the King’s Speech: some movies make you feel. Gravity is the modern masterpiece in that way. It will play all over the world and barely require subtitles. Its win would represent the Academy’s moving forward to accept and embrace this modern trend, to finally break out of their need to reward nuts and bolts filmmaking (non-effects based), traditional storytelling with sets, costumes and dialogue built by humans and not computers — Argo, The King’s Speech, The Artist, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, etc. Young film fans have long wondered why the Academy cannot evolve into the modern era, why they must always adhere to what they know. Gravity’s win would usher in this younger audience of film and Oscar fans. It would also give a golden seal of approval to the kinds of films the Academy has firmly resisted.
Although an effects-driven film, Gravity moves people. Cuaron is overdue, riding a career trajectory that includes the beautiful Y Tu Mama Tambien and Children of Men. Gravity would be the first film starring a woman to win probably since Shakespeare in Love in 1998. Those are among the reasons it could win Best Picture and Best Director. Really, though, at the end of the day what drives the passion vote for Gravity is that it is a feel good film anyone can watch and get. Anyone. If you have a choice between a film that makes you feel bad or uncomfortable and a film that makes you feel good and contented, industry voters nowadays will choose to feel good every time. I think of it like the Prozac Nation Oscars. Gone are the days where darkness reigned, when they could feel comfortable awarding something that didn’t end in a euphoric release. No one is going to pick 12 Years a Slave first over Gravity when they’re looking at their screener pile.
American Hustle is more the kind of film the Academy ordinarily supports. Low budget with a high box office return, strong on writing and acting, luxuriating in the boomer nostalgia of yesteryear, featuring the “cool kids” of Hollywood today — the most popular actors in town, two of the hottest actresses scantily clad and fighting over the film’s central male character. It is light and fun, unpredictable and though it has elements of Scorsese throughout it is distinctly the work of David O. Russell, who gives his actors the space to deliver fully realized, uncorked performances. Actors rule the Academy and actors love directors who make movies with lots of them in it.
American Hustle is about deception, sure, and about financial scams, of course, but at its core it’s really a love story between Amy Adams and Christian Bale. Everything that happens in the film moves those two characters closer to each other. What American Hustle lacks is gravitas. There is nothing particularly urgent at stake, so if you vote for that you are most likely opting out of the narrative in any awards race that winning films must be at least feign some sort of “importance.” With so many heavy films handling emotionally wrenching stories — Captain Phillips, Nebraska, 12 Years a Slave — American Hustle stands out as one of the lighter rides. With a SAG win, a potential WGA win coming up, and perhaps an Eddie, American Hustle stands poised as potential spoiler, if Gravity doesn’t win Best Picture, which it easily should by now.
Absent this Oscar season are the astonishing range of African American stories the year gave us. 2013 represented what might be called the Black New Wave of filmmakers who crossed over into the realm of film critics, tastemakers and industry voters. The Weinstein Co. backed two important films about African American history — The Butler and Fruitvale Station. The Butler made over $100 million but became fodder for the hipster set who tweeted continually condescending things about Lee Daniels and the film itself, labeling it as Oscar bait early on — too soft, not smarmy, too whatever to be “accepted” as a serious film.
Fruitvale Station was given a pat on the back too: “Nice try Ryan Coogler but you are no Benh Zeitlin, that’s for sure.” Both films were completely shut out of the Oscar race. Both were serious stories that crossed over to white and black audiences. The only acceptable film about race was Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave, an earnest, raw, moody depiction of slavery as it ought to be told. The British McQueen wasn’t given a pat on the back and a “nice try,” at least not yet anyway. Perhaps that’s coming when the film wins only Supporting Actress and maybe Screenplay. McQueen is already a filmmaker who has crossed over, having made two films about white characters already — he is someone who doesn’t feel as though the only movies he CAN make are movies about people from his own race. In fact, the thought never even occurred to him. He’s telling a good story is all, one about an African American hero in our collective history. We forget that Solomon Northup’s story is every bit an American story as Argo. It’s just that we don’t get to be the good guys. Nearly all the white men in 12 Years a Slave have to be the bad guys, and with them the culture and country they based on wicked oppression, an economy that thrived on unfathomable cruelty, an empire built on the backs of slaves.
The most intensely vivid, memorable scenes in 12 Years a Slave are hard to watch. How could they be otherwise? It’s not intended to make us feel good about our “rightful” place in the universe. The indictment isn’t life-affirming, particularly. Solomon Northup rising up against his slave master and getting nearly lynched as a result, yeah, not a pretty picture. Patsy getting whipped across the back because she’s owned by an oppressor who can’t live with her, can’t live without her. Not pretty. Our American past is ugly, as ugly as anything yet Hollywood has thus far refused to own it in any significant way. Gone with the Wind, Driving Miss Daisy, Django Unchained, Crash — these are Hollywood and Oscar’s tidy answers to dealing with the race issue. That, and movies like Precious and Training Day where black characters are portrayed in a negative light.
No film other than The Wolf of Wall Street was better directed this year than McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave. What a shame it got caught in the Oscar loop thereby forbidding the elite critics to put their full support behind it. Of all of the films I saw this year, Gravity is close to being one of those I can’t forget. There are moments in Gravity I will carry with me long after this season ends. But the moments in McQueen’s beautiful, unforgettable 12 Years a Slave have imprinted themselves in my mind’s eye and have changed the way I look at the world. Hard, brutal, uncompromising — these are the elements that make this film the masterpiece that it is. It’s the inhumanity of mankind. It is our shameful past and our potentially shameful present and future.
But the industry’s voice of resistence is beginning to emerge. There will be no film directed by the first black director to win. There will be no films about African Americans to win any major prizes. Those stories will have to reside where they always have — on the fringes of the mainstream. That they were made at all, that people know these filmmakers exist, must mean that doors are slowly being cranked open. The Oscars are moving with the major studios towards our big budget blockbuster future — that seems inevitable. Anything else will belong to the ages.
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2 things:
-I problem with the feel goes with a lead that…
What I wanted to say was: My problem with it goes with a lead that…
Sorry about the mistake.
-“Been said again and again and again and again and again. It is a great thing but unless his winning movie was about the Mexican or Mexican American experience it is akin to Michel Hazanavicus won as a French guy. Great and all…but…”
It speaks really well about his talents. How many directors can be embraced in a universal way like Cuaron had been this year? Gravity is the pop-corn entertaining film (don’t read it as an insult) that was lucky to get the right push and the right reviews in the right year (the magical 3 Rs) just like Gladiator and Return of the King. Racism is still an issue to be ashame of just like sexual abuse or drugs traffic are. That didn’t matter to voters and Mystic River went home without the big one. Same for Traffic. Dammit, you could even make a statement with this logic with a “less than decent” film like Babel. Language and race difference are and forever will be an issue, but that year? The entertaining one got the big one.
You watch Gravity and appreciate it for what it does. You watch 12 Years a Slave and also appreciate it the same way, but you HAVE to put the racial theme on the table. You have to and you can’t avoid.
That’s a raw definition of a movie with importance, but at the same time, a lot of people doesn’t feel comfortable about it (by some people I mean your average white rich Caucasian Hollywood demographic that votes for Argo because “it’s super fun!”)
At least we can all agree that it has been a blast of an awards season. I didn’t even made comments during the The Artist and Argo years because of how boring and predictable (and undeserving if you ask me) those years were. Now? Now we actually have a fucking race!
Why was Fruitvale blacked out? The people that think they’re helping by pushing Slave, like Sasha, are completely missing the point.. again.. Gleefully retweeting silly takedowns instead of pushing for profiles on Chiwetel, Michael B Jordan, Octavia, Ryan Coogler.. Heck Lee Daniels was shut out but his contribution is undeniable.. smh,
Fruitvale Station > 12 Years a Slave
More important more powerful more relevant.
“I’m not sure when the elevated language was “decided” to be a great device, but I disagree.”
Yeah, actually, I was talking about the unclear passage of time as a narrative device, not the language: “or complaints about the passage of time not being clearly illustrated, which is something we’ve already decided over here was a narrative device” etc.
I guess the phrase was a bit long so it’s not a big deal that you misunderstood. Now, however, I hope the point is clear.
“Also, we do have records of speech and education and linguistics of that era, and no, speaking in crummy faux-Shakespeare was not a common occurrence back in the 1850s South.”
People did speak like that in those times, and that’s a fact. I have studied books and documents from that era. But you’ve made me curious and I acquired the book from which the movie was adapted (written by Solomon Northup himself) and looked through it, to see what the style and dialogues sounded like. Well, it’s the same as in the movie! As I thought – I mean, how dumb did you think the filmmakers were?!
You’re welcome to check for yourself. Anyway, that pretty much invalidates your “complaint”, since it means that all it’s ever amounted to is an accusation of having too accurately adapted the novel. Unsurprising, really, that this claim would be bullshit, since the screenplay was nominated everywhere it was eligible (by the WRITERS themselves, no less, at least at the Oscars and BAFTA – I don’t know how the other groups nominate) and is even the favorite to win. But I guess YOU know better…
Oh, and, cool it with the “faux-Shakespearean” stuff – the language in the book and movie is pretty natural and uncomplicated. Just a bit archaic. It’s like you’ve never even read Shakespeare in your life… (that’s WAY more complex – it’s British, for one, and it’s much, much older) Either that, or you just have no idea what the meaning of ‘similarity’ is.
“I was underwhelmed by 12YAS because it so clearly failed in what it was trying to do: something interesting. It was a truly uninteresting, undramatic, and weirdly un-affecting piece of cinema.”
Yeah, again, this is just your OPINION. Nothing you’ve said proves that there’s anything actually wrong with the movie or how it tells the story, but rather that there’s something wrong with the way you perceive it. Because I can tell you right now pretty much any (random) person you’ll ask that has seen the movie (and who has seen a drama or two in his time) will disagree with the adjectives you just used.
Maybe you’re right and 90% of the population is wrong. I’m not denying the possibility. However, like I said, so far you’ve not proven it or given any arguments that amount to anything more than personal opinions and perspectives. You don’t have to like it. You’re even allowed to hate it. But, if you’re going to criticize it openly, please do it competently!…
I’ve been guilty of this myself in the past – criticizing something I didn’t fully understand. I’ve learned my lesson, for the most part, and have been trying to avoid doing that since. Maybe you should tone it down too and join me in moderation, or else only pick stuff you’re actually qualified to criticize instead!
It’s cool that you get to decide what fails and what succeeds. How did you get that job?
excellent explanation. You’ve convinced me.
I’m not sure when the elevated language was “decided” to be a great device, but I disagree. Also, we do have records of speech and education and linguistics of that era, and no, speaking in crummy faux-Shakespeare was not a common occurrence back in the 1850s South.
I was underwhelmed by 12YAS because it so clearly failed in what it was trying to do: something interesting. It was a truly uninteresting, undramatic, and weirdly un-affecting piece of cinema.
“saying that my points are invalid and refusing to substantiate your opinion is one thing, but accusing me of being “strategic” in posting when I did is downright ludicrous.”
I didn’t say you took advantage MALICIOUSLY… Just that you did. 🙂 It was a favorable situation for your post to avoid serious scrutiny, whether you thought about it or not. In any case, if you still feel like it was a personal accusation – which it wasn’t -, then I’ll withdraw it.
“You also assume I disliked 12 Years a Slave because it didn’t meet my expectations of the kind of movie it “should be”. Not at all, I went into it knowing nothing but the fact that it was about a guy who spends 12 years a slave and found it tremendously underwhelming, on pretty much every level.”
Yes, and it is my opinion that THIS is why you found it underwhelming (the very word “underwhelming” suggests this). And, technically, your impassioned accusations seem to indicate far more than just disappointment, more like profound personal distaste and aversion (words like “atrocious”, “annoying”, horrible” in the same paragraph).
This, I believe, can be the cause of one of two things (apart from the movie actually being insulting in some way, which I can’t really see, especially since nobody else has complained of this thus far – but if that’s what you think it is, then I would very much like to hear some solid arguments, and not complaints about the elevated language, because you didn’t live in those times and have no evidence whatsoever as to how people spoke, educated or not, or, indeed, of how educated the woman slaves were, or complaints about the passage of time not being clearly illustrated, which is something we’ve already decided over here was a narrative device that most of us think worked brilliantly for maintaining the tension and feeling of hopelessness and uncertainty), none of which is the movie’s fault:
a) You hate it because it’s a major contender for the Oscar and you support something else OR
b) You hate it because, even before you saw it, knowing the general outline of the story (to which you freely admit), you subconsciously formed your own, rigid ideas about how that story should be told (based on previous films seen or whatever other part of your past experience) and you weren’t willing to accept McQueen’s handling of it.
I went with the second one, based on what you wrote, but it could also easily be the first… If you think it’s a fourth option that I’ve failed to identify, you’re welcome to tell me. But don’t deny the fact that you hate it on a personal level – the tone of your message is most clear.
“I mean, you go into a movie with one expectation: This had better be worth my ticket price. Any other expectations (at least for non-sequels) are unfair.”
They are, but, sadly, that’s not how the human brain works. If it’s the first movie you’ve ever seen, then, sure, you have close to no expectations. But, in every other case, you ALWAYS have quite a lot of expectations, be they reasonable or not, based on past viewing experiences. Even if you know absolutely nothing about the movie beforehand, which is not the case here anyway.
Chiwetel Ejifor can’t get a single profile piece but let’s keep bashing American hustle.
*Every WHITE writer talking about race this awards season*
Claudiu Dobre, saying that my points are invalid and refusing to substantiate your opinion is one thing, but accusing me of being “strategic” in posting when I did is downright ludicrous. You also assume I disliked 12 Years a Slave because it didn’t meet my expectations of the kind of movie it “should be”. Not at all, I went into it knowing nothing but the fact that it was about a guy who spends 12 years a slave and found it tremendously underwhelming, on pretty much every level. Did any of us really know what to expect from American Hustle or Gravity or All is Lost or Frances Ha? I mean, you go into a movie with one expectation: This had better be worth my ticket price. Any other expectations (at least for non-sequels) are unfair.
And yet more American Hustle take downs.. Movie writers literally have nothing nice to say about any other movie or actor do they? AH only chance at wins in a major category are best screenplay( except no one knows what it was about apparently) and Jennifer Lawrence beating Lupita ( doubtful) but’s DASSS IT.. Two months of the same take downs.. My god!! It’s clear that Gravity or Slave is going to win BP and that none of the AH actors are going to win anything except maybe J Law so why keep it up.. And O Russell has zero chance at best director so why the constant hit pieces .. I’m fed up..
CB, you are completely wrong with everything you just said about 12 Years a Slave. I won’t argue with you, though, because, like I said, I don’t want to have that kind of discussion anymore. I just want you to know that I disagree with 100% of what you said. I don’t care if that means nothing to you, which I’m sure it does.
I just don’t want anybody to think, just because you happen to be the most recent person in this thread that seems to be making a substantial contribution on the subject, that you are actually making valid points. You are not. You’re just taking advantage of the fact that not enough people are reading the comments here anymore, and that I’m not inclined to disprove such half-assed theories anymore. But I hope somebody with more patience for this sort of thing is still reading and does step forth and repeat what has already been said.
You obviously had very specific expectations about what kind of movie you wanted to see and, when they weren’t met, instead of looking at it for what it was, you just rushed to come up with as many reasons and angles as possible for why it wasn’t what you thought it should have been.
Sadly, none of the arguments you came up with are in any way insightful, but just prove that your perspective is deeply subjective and biased. Some of them, like I said before, have already been addressed quite satisfactorily, here and on other websites. Your points do nothing to change the conclusions already drawn. You’ll have to do much better than that if you really want to convince people that 12 Years a Slave is actually a bad movie. Just letting you know, in case you’re open-minded enough to not dismiss my post simply because it goes against your own opinion.
Patrick C, you are 100% correct. All is Lost is my #1 movie of the year and of the three “possible winners”, Hustle is the superior.
12 Years a Slave is a movie that is only about its subject matter: slavery. It has no running theme other than “atrocities and tropes of slavery”. Northrup wanders through the movie without changing an ounce (just a furrowed brow and a quivering mouth), going from one cliche to another (Paul Dano the supervisor envious of the slave’s intellect, Patsey the eternal victim, Benedict Cumberbatch the plantation owner who ignores his own morality in favor of the status quo, Alfre Woodard the slave who is now mistress of the plantation). Northrup for all his 12 years a slave never seems to make any connections with any other slaves, and yet everyone – slaves and masters – treats him like the protagonist the movie knows he is. Think about it: every time the movie needs to call him into the action, characters to whom he is but another slave turn to him. The crying mother, Patsey asking to be killed, Fassbender telling him to whip Patsey. Why?
How about the atrocious faux-Shakespearean writing in the film? Rather than actually trying to figure out verisimilitudinous slave and master dialects, John Ridley writes in this horrible purple prose. When Solomon asks the white guy to send his letter: “That I ask you to do what is small for you but the universe to me,” or Patsey, “Drown me until my breath has left me and my body stills.” Dear God – it is flowery and annoying and horrible. And it is a cheap ploy at grandness, but really a cop-out for writing in the actual way people spoke back in that place and time. Sure, Northrup was an educated Northerner, but was Patsey? Was the mother whose children were taken away? And do educated people really speak that way all the time?
How about the fact that, yes, 12 years do not appear to go by in watching the film. That he literally goes grey the second he steps on his carriage out of there. That is a real problem. Or the fact that the poster even makes it look like he runs — when he never does. It’s not a tale of escape, of the Underground Railroad. It’s a tale of a guy who remains trapped, so why does the poster show him running if not because the movie itself is there simply to be Serious Slave Movie.
Which leads to my final problem with the movie: its absence of thematic purpose. This is not a movie about what it means to be free and then suddenly enslaved. It never explores this in any meaningful or substantive way. It is not about what it means to be a free black man suddenly put alongside his enslaved brothers and sisters. Not at all — in fact, the film never invests in any relationship between Solomon and those he lives with for more than a decade. I came up with my own thematic through-line that could’ve addressed these issues: his violin-playing. How about we explore how being enslaved quashes this man’s incredible talent, that he goes from playing Bach to fiddling drinking songs for the crude master. That’s in interesting, if obvious, parallel the movie could’ve drawn and that would’ve showed some sense of entrapment on a more-than-physical level. No, the movie is not about that, not in the least.
It’s not about anything than being Serious Slave Movie. It is a totally failed opportunity. Because in making this movie, McQueen was too scared to do anything but show that slavery is wrong, with no nuances in characters, and frankly with no real characters. Its the parade of archetypes and tropes, creating a sum product that is strangely empty.
You’re right, in my opinion Gravity is a very strong competition for this year’s Oscar Awards, it’s really a breathtaking motion picture. Alfonso Cuarón did a great job.
I wouldn’t compare it to the movie 12 Years A Slave, it’s really a very different genre and theme. Gravity is about the fight of a human being vs. the powerful space. What I really liked is the final scene, where Sandra Bullock crawled from the sea to the shore and kissed the ground. That was the most powerful moment for me, it was representing the fact, how people take the Earth for granted, but actually it’s really our home, our special place. That’s why I really enjoyed this movie. But you’re right, from this year’s nominations I couldn’t pick the best movie, they were all really great!
Browsing through the comments on balance, Sasha, unfortunately i find myself in agreement with most esp the first comment at the top of the list declaring “reverse psychology at work”.
Here why:
You say about “doing the right thing” but what is the “right thing”? and what is the “true right thing?” by your own admission indirectly but nevertheless implied, you have ceded that indeed this validates and vindicates what i been saying for years…and this year we get a even clearer pictgure how oscar translate the guild awards, how they distributed, which films win what etc…
I still bracing myself for a disjointed bullshit outcome to be quite frank…there no other word for it…the fact oscar are STILL wrestling with their concious to work out what the TRUE “right thing is”? really from 1998 onwards they been all ovewr the place..for any professional self respectful institution who truly values their global fanbase or audience (something oscar whould have done at LEAST over a decade ago..but for any profressional organization to struggle to establish what they stand for…well it a insult to them and franjkly to us..
Is it really that hard? i say again helllooo holly wood oscar is AMPAS MOTION- PICTURE ARTS AND SCIENCES!!! is it really that hard?
Excellence in film and “TRUE Right thing” is to NOT do “i owe yous” or “guilt trips” for neglecting a certain category or type of producer or actor. Oscar was never formed to be about satisfying it own self satisfaction…it ALWAYS supposed to first and foremost be about the best made film in BOTH critic and the public eyes.
Without the public there is no credence to ANY art form..who is art made for? exhibtion attendees? tourists? these pple are part of the public…are films made to satisfy the pointless raft of overkill excuse that is critic circles or for a balance of both.
So i tell you all the difference between the “right thing” and the TRUE Right thing. If oscar care to hold us as part of the equation and this year finally long overdue there hope they actually might, combined with there AMPAS self explanatory clear as crystal originally purposefully formed values. There wouild not be a need for half of the writer’s thoughts on this site and many others to psycho analyze and read into mistakes, discrepancies, flaws and yes some are ok but we should be talking more indepth,. and it not Sasha or Ryan’s fault it oscar’s fault and hollywood’s m,ore broedly…but cos of the darth of unjustified snubs, underhanded dealings on oscar day and therfore confusion and internal conflict in oscar’s own compromised tattered values system,. we waste our breath talking bout issues that should not be and thinghs that deserve to be discussed more.
How bout talking about how all the contenders satisfy the criteria to conform to AMPAS OWN VALUES? that would be a change ey? oscar misguided choices more often than not, dictate the flow of press coverage and the lack of quality of it. Sasha in fairness and i think it time one of us acknowledges it you always doa great job and no less even if sometimes i or others respectfully disagree…you make the most and add value to topics of debate that oscatr expose themselves to through their countless lapses,,, poor errors in judgement.
These lapses and errors of judgement lead tro neglect for decades- ie failure to recognize a black director and a black cast and black screenwriter etc in the past. But to give it due now great but is this film truly conform to AMPAS prerequisite in their truest form?
Anser no why? well? what is the real reason and true intent behind awarding 12 yrs a slave? the same reason perhaps as awarding Hurt Locker or Argo or Milliondollar baby? cos the first time a certain issue has been looked at in a certain way?
To feel guilty as oscar are clearly weighing up with 12 years as a potential frontrunner, is to do the “right thing” but not in the public’s mind but in their own mind…their self absorbed ways are tiresome to the public truly…who are sivk and tired of oscar chasing and fulfuilling their own needas at our expense and sometimes even at ceritics expense too!
To do i owe you’s and satsifying guilt trips is i sorry to say the “right thing” (according to oscars world alone) but just cos it “right thing” is not mean it is true to the true nature of the origins of AMPAS.
Gravity is true to the nature of AMPAS. It a film that become something of a pop culture event (i would not say phenomena) but the fact it draws on fusion of modern technology, great performance…and by a foreign director…and drama and rhythim in the fusion of Bullokcs performance, and as Sasha rightly says a “universally” appealing story without the need for precise writing..in intricatre detail…there nothing wrong with this as Sasha says it true “it reflects the changing face of cinema,” or what constitutes a true best picture potentially.
Gravity is loved BOTH by critics and audfiences…it was not expectedf to be the blockbuster success nor market6ed as such..it was one filmmakers idea highly experimental (if 3d been done before to even greater heights in AVATAR that fueses the science of filmmaking with the tradition of it…this is what EXACTLY AMPAS IS ABOUT.
So the question you aSK Sasha is reverse psychology but u enocurage us to look deeper…and think bout what you say that what we love bout your articles for the years i been around…nevertheless we should ask what film conforms to BOTH AMPAS true original values at their core foundation and deserves to win…for not other reaosn than is the best film this year?
Gravity. Despite it success it need a BAFTA win to secure it chances as outright frontrunner. i still fear 12 yrs will win and not cos it the truest right thing only cos in oscars eyes it the chance for slef vindication and that tells you how low oscar has sunk from it core valuyes.
The question will haunt them if “Slave” wins as it did when they embraced the firts female director long overdue…: “why or why didnt oscar embrace a earlier film made by women, blacks, why wait till now? and then continue to fall behind the mainstream/ evolving best picture astandard of today?
“With all due respect to most of the people who read and write on this page…are you people nuts? Are you honestly going to say that 12 Years, Gravity and American Hustle were better over all films than Captain Phillips, Blue Jasmine, All is Lost and Dallas Buyers Club?”
I even promised myself I wouldn’t do this anymore! Justify why I like/dislike this or that movie… It’s too subjective. It can never end.
So I’ll just say this: 12 Years a Slave is, in my opinion, a near-perfect masterpiece and all your attempts to “prove” that it’s not by giving your own skewed opinions of this or that aspect, which pretty much everybody else loves, are vacuous, because your opinions aren’t any more valid than mine or anybody else’s. So, please, don’t question our sanity based on your subjective views on the matter!
Yes, we do like those 3 (except for American Hustle, in my case) more than any of the other 4. And, just like you, we too can’t believe you can honestly sit here and tell us that those 4 are somehow better (overall) than 12 Years a Slave or Gravity… It seems as ridiculous to us as the opposite does to you. Except you, apparently, given what the critics and voting bodies have gone with so far, are in the minority. Is that preferable, is that worse? Who knows?! But don’t act outraged when signs of this are basically everywhere!
What are you trying to prove? That we’re wrong and you’re right? That we’re all idiots for liking what you don’t? That we somehow didn’t see the same movies you saw and “missed” how horrible they were? What’s the point of your post? If you wanted us to know you thought Captain Phillips, Blue Jasmine, All Is Lost and Dallas Buyers Club were better than the current BP favorites, you could have done so in one short paragraph – because stating reasons isn’t going to get anyone to suddenly switch sides, especially since you’re not pointing out anything that’s a revelation in any way. And, more importantly, you could have done it without calling us “nuts”.
It’s US who should be asking YOU to justify why those 4 are better, and then tear your arguments apart with our own opinions of the many – and far more obvious – flaws those 4 movies have. But I won’t do it, and don’t try to provoke me. It won’t work. I’ll let others do it, if they want to, because I’m done with such conversations.
Patrick C,
Remember in 1994, when people were talking about Forrest Gump and Pulp Fiction? Now on IMDb, and for a long long time now, the movie that is not only number one of 1994, but of all-time is The Shawshank Redemption. In 1968, critics hated 2001: A Space Odyssey. Now it’s considered a classic, hell a “Masterpiece”. It’s true that only time will tell.
Also, I do agree with you that movies like All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, and one of my favorites, Rush aren’t currently getting enough attention, but that’s because 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity are the “it” movies of the moment. Have patience, that moment will pass soon enough. 🙂
Patrick C,
to answer your question, yes! I’m nuts. 🙂 But I think we all are. (In a fantastic way!!)
With all due respect to most of the people who read and write on this page…are you people nuts? Are you honestly going to say that 12 Years, Gravity and American Hustle were better over all films than Captain Phillips, Blue Jasmine, All is Lost and Dallas Buyers Club? To all the people who loved Gravity I have one question for you…WHY? If you tell me because it was visually stunning I would throw Avatar out at you. Both movies were amazing films to watch due to the technical aspects but the overall acting and the story wasn’t that good! In fact I would argue that All is Lost is basically the same type of movie as Gravity and was a better told story (not to mention I felt like Redford was 10x’s better than Bullock). If you wish to compare the sexes, I would say trying to compare Bullock to Blanchet in Blue Jasmine is like asking me to compare lunch meat to steak. Blanchet, in my opinion, had the best acting of any person this year in any movie. In fact, I would go on record and tell you her performance was the best I ever seen in a movie theater (the only person who may have played a better character was Joanne Woodward in Three Faces of Eve).
12 Years a Slave had the hardest “story” to tell. It was a part of our American history that I wish had never happened and still don’t understand how humans allowed that to go on. It is for that reason only that 12 years is being talked about as the front runner. There are other films that had to do with slavery that told the story better and were better quality films. I have talked about the editing of this film at nauseam. 12 Years would have been a much better film had it been shot as a conventional film and not as some art house crap with putting the majority of the action on the boarders of the screen. The hardest scene in that movie to watch (for me) was the hanging scene. The action was taking place in the middle with everyone walking around on the sides of the screen. Had Mcqueen shot the entire film like this…the discussion of what wins best picture would end right here with this film. And before I get the whole you’re raciest and all that other nonsense…I am talking about the making of the overall film. Don’t read into anything else but that!
American Hustle (of these three films) was the best made movie of the year. It’s story was the best of the three, the overall acting was better and it was put together like what I would think an Academy Award nominated film should look like. Saying that, there was nothing that jumped out at me that says 10 academy award nominations! How Christian Bale stole a nomination away from Redford and/or Hanks is beyond me. I’m thinking that his nomination had more to do with his 40 pounds gained then it did with his performance. I also have no idea how Bradley Cooper (who wasn’t even the 4th best acting performance in the film) got a nomination.
Since Captain Phillips and Dallas Buyers Club has no shot at winning best picture and it seems like the three before mentioned films are the horses in the field, I am going to throw out my No Guts No Glory picks…American Hustle wins Best Picture, Best Director and Best Editing. It is not who I think should really win (mainly because the ones I think should aren’t nominated) but because I think AH was just the best of the few.
“Precious is a movie that actually challenges the viewer to put themselves in an astonishingly impossible situation from which millions cannot extricate themselves. 12 Years a Slave, a movie that should do the same, is a stale, cautious, detached, and ultimately simple depiction of redundant cliches, ending in a deus ex machina.”
Oh, get off!… Precious is so poorly edited, directed and written… Those sequences showing her fantasies are embarrassing! That was about the most ridiculous and cliched way they could possibly have shown us what she was thinking.
And 12 Years is stale? How do you think 12 years in captivity feel? Cautious – really? Detached? I guess you didn’t catch the ending, the many breakdowns etc. If anything, it’s a bit too emotional. Cliched? What? The characters? More than Precious’? I don’t think so!… What, then? The dialogue? Please illustrate. The plot? It’s based on a true story. Too unoriginal for you, though, right?! No? What, then?…
No Country For Old Men and The Departed were violent fare. If the Academy can embrace those films, they should have no trouble embracing “the difficult” 12 Years A Slave. Gravity a masterpiece? No. It’s a superb, computer manufactured sci fi action ride with a fine performance at its center. 2001 is the masterpiece in this genre.
Precious is to 12 Years a Slave as Dumb and Dumber was to Midnight Cowboy.
Precious is a movie that actually challenges the viewer to put themselves in an astonishingly impossible situation from which millions cannot extricate themselves. 12 Years a Slave, a movie that should do the same, is a stale, cautious, detached, and ultimately simple depiction of redundant cliches, ending in a deus ex machina.
“I’m sure we’re in agreance about how great it is getting responses back that are level-headed and respectable, even if you don’t agree with the statements.”
We are, of course. 🙂 Thanks!
“Plus it shows you’ve read all (I can only assume) the comments.”
I do, I read everything before posting. Like to have as much information as possible.
Precious was better than 12 Years a Slave..
Precious is to 12 Years a Slave as Dumb and Dumber was to Midnight Cowboy.
So simplistic! So simplistic… I’m tired of defending 12 Years against the same accusations over and over. Your post brings nothing new to the discussion and I and others have already answered these questions about the movie’s quality, so I don’t think there’s any sense in going into them again for hater no.4791… You didn’t like it – good for you.
People are still writing American Hustle take downs? I saw Sasha retweet one gleefully.. LOL It’s like Rand talking about Lewinsky.. lazy, stale and tired.. I gleefully hope your favorites lose when you waste your energy on stuff like that at this stage in the race.. I mean at this point do we need anymore? You cold be writing positively about and pushing your favs but nope let me blah blah snark blah.. idiots..
Ceeza, you’re right! So so so right. Precious was an amazing and interesting film that actually had dramatic tension and real characters.
What is 12 Years a Slave but a list of slave-narrative tropes with no actual grander theme than “Here is a very sober unnuanced depiction of slavery.” It’s like if you took Schindler’s List, kept the bookends, and just stuck all Auschwitz in the middle. There’s no thematic arc to the movie, it never feels like 12 years (and in fact he goes gray in literally the last scene), there’s never any actual dramatic tension, and the acting is just a furrowed brow on Solomon and a Hostel victim in Patsey. It is truly a risk-free film on every level.
Kane, by Instagram I meant that it was a bunch of pretty light filters and faux-artsy camera work. To be honest I don’t use Instagram. Loved Her too, btw. Also, I don’t give the Butler main points for its relevance – the reason I enjoyed it is because it was simply an entertaining, smart, and well-made film experience – but I do appreciate its political importance and its non-reductive approach to the Civil Rights Movement.
I simply do not believe Gravity is even a top 5 film from the films I have seen so far this year. Prisoners was far better. Gravity will go down as one of the biggest Oscar disappointments of all time. I have seen the film twice. The first time I cursed this site for the over-hype of the film. It bored me. Visually stunning yes …. but apart from all the amazing explosions it was just dullsville. The second time I saw it I laughed a lot ….. just too many flaws and ridiculous scenes which defied any kind of possible belief. All this nonsense as to whether the film is sci-fi or sci-reality …… please its sci with a FI !! Seriously, if this film wins BP and BD then Avatar should demand a re-check. Gravity totally depends on special effects which in turn means that Alfonso was far more needy of technical expertise. That alone should weaken his chances of Director. But alas if the Academy want to reward a Mexican director’s stab at sci-fi, then so be it. Its not a film that will transfer to the small screen and thusly it will not be remembered at all. Anyone watching Gravity on a screener will wonder what the fuss was about. I am still wondering the same thing after seeing on the IMAX – TWICE!!!!
Ceeza,in your opinion.
Precious was better than 12 Years a Slave..
Don’t forget 12 Yeasr also won PGA. Its win in PGA seems to mean very little for Sasha and its fans who are losing hope because of Cuaron’s DGA win. Do you guys realize only a small portion of the producers and directors are Oscar voters, about 600 some voters? DGA has a good track record, but it may not be apply this year due to this obvious tie at PGA. Sasha forgot Gravity doesn’t have a screenplay nomination, and that hurts it a great deal, but can the rule be broken? Absolutely, but is Gravity really the film that breaks the rule since Titanic? Titanic was unstoppable because it was too huge of a world wide phenomenon. Gravity simply isn’t big enough to pull a Titanic in my opinion, not when it didn’t win as many best picture awards as 12 Years. Gravity won PGA, DGA, but it didn’t wing Golden Globes, Broadcast Film Critics, and I know they obviously do not vote, but they do represent a consensus out there, and their consensus matches with PGA. So the Cuaron’s DGA win might be irrelevant to the best picture race this year. This whole talk about how AMPAS members won’t see the film because it is too dark, too violent is not entirely true. How about Schindler’s List? The Hurt Locker, No Country for Old Men? Yeah, Gravity might have the edge due to its DGA win now, but i would say its being a sci fi thriller are still hurting it as well. I am not losing hope like Sasha did. Let’s wait until BAFTA and see what happens. 12 Years is still a serious contender and I have confidence that it will still take best picture. After all, Sasha predicted Avatar to win the night before the Oscar.
Claudiu, I can’t speak for Joe and Alan but I’m sure we’re in agreance about how great it is getting responses back that are level-headed and respectable, even if you don’t agree with the statements. Plus it shows you’ve read all (I can only assume) the comments.
JS, I’d be lying if I said the academy didn’t give Argo best adapted screenplay just so it wouldn’t look like it only won 2 Oscars. Although it’s best editing was well earned, or at least William Goldenberg deserve an Oscar even if it was for Argo and not ZD30.
Wow, thanks for the appreciation, Joe, Kane & Alan! Didn’t see that coming… I was getting ready for the backlash. Well, I’m sure it’s coming soon, anyway – can’t imagine I’ll be able to get away with writing such a long post without pissing somebody off, somehow… 🙂
“I hope you apologize if/when there is a split between director and best picture (and when 12 Years wins Best Pic, because it likely will).”
Oh, come on… Nobody needs to apologize, no matter who wins BP/BD! It’s not like she said she is absolutely sure and everyone who thinks otherwise is a moron… She’s just predicting, like everyone else. She thinks certain factors make Gravity the favorite and we don’t. Nobody will ever know who was right about who was the favorite at this time, no matter which film ends up winning – we’re trying to predict what are probably THE hardest to predict Oscars in recent memory.
OK, I checked. Rebecca won only 2 back in 1940. So it’s only a 73-year old tradition that Best Picture winners get at least 3 wins.
And I should admit that, as with Argo last year, if they like a movie enough to give it Best Picture, other categories will follow (like its screenplay win over Lincoln, which raised its total Oscar haul to 3).
The fact that American Hustle was the big over-performer on nominations morning (getting all 4 acting categories), along with its SAG win, and the reports of Hollywood loving it “as its own”–according to the ever-astute Anne Thompson–makes me want to predict it for Best Picture.
But… considering that Jennifer Lawrence apparently has no shot, and its prospects in other categories are slim (it has a good shot in Screenplay, but it’s not assured; could it beat Gatsby for Costume Design?) it would wind up with around 1-2 wins total. I can’t remember the last time that happened. 1938?
I love 12 Years a Slave, but I can see why it’s not doing that well in the precursors – it’s the heaviness. It’s a lot like Brokeback in that respect. At least a film like Gandhi had a story of positive social change, etc., going for it in order to beat ET. I don’t think the Academy would be bigoted nor forward-thinking in awarding Gravity. I just think they had a great time at the movies, and see it as a remarkable piece of film craft.
Sasha,
I hope you apologize if/when there is a split between director and best picture (and when 12 Years wins Best Pic, because it likely will). Your blatant attempts at reverse psychology by using phrases such as “there’s no way they’ll do this, that, blah blah,” is tiresome. Every single article you write, it’s the same story. That the Academy won’t split and 12 Years has little to no chance to win BP. Man up and apologize if and when you’re wrong come Oscar night.
Claudiu, well-thought out rebuttals. Applause!
CB, your opinion of Beasts is almost parallel to my wife’s! I absolutely loved the hell out of it but my wife was depressed watching it, which then made her angry. I respect your opinion of the film but I’m not sure where “Instagram’d” comes from. If anything, Her (my favorite of the year) looks far more Instagram’d.
Also, since it’s still fresh in my mind, The Butler is very relevant but that in no way made it a great movie for me. I feel the focus should have shifted to Oyelowo’s son almost completely. That’s when the story gained much more focus.
Not including last year, this year’s race has made us believe there will be a split more than any year I can remember. How people can say it definitely won’t happen is beyond me. I’ll tell you something, I won’t be reading the article that claims to be surprised if Gravity takes Director and 12 Years A Slave takes Picture.
Sasha, totally agree about the Butler, one of the best movies of the year and actually much more politically charged and relevant IMO to African American/American racial issues than 12 Years a Slave. 12 Years was essentially a catalog of slave story tropes, and it lacked in any real risk, both artistic and political. Not so with The Butler, a truly relevant film and a dynamic one at that.
Also great parallel with Fruitvale Station, a truly meaningful and well-made film, and Beasts of the Southern Wild, a sickeningly precious whimsical piece of Instagram-poverty porn. I hate Beasts with a passion, but I love Fruitvale. A shame it wasn’t nominated for anything – I will never forget Octavia Spencer’s performance.
@Sasha: I too am having issues using Safari and your site to post comments. You might want to check on that dear.
@Bryce: (SMOOCHES!) Why thank you honey! You know, I appreciate any positive comments I get from guys like you- helps an older gal like me feel validated. Sometimes we forget that we’re all here because we LOVE film and LOVE talking about the Academy Awards. Coffee on me today!
With that being said, I must confess- while ironing my blouse this morning I heard a loud SMASH coming from my living room. I ran in and noticed one of my potted plants had fallen over and broken all over the foor. I also noticed an envelope under all the rubble. I lifted it up- and it said C. PHILLIPS on it. It dawned on me- Catherine Phillips is a neighbor of mine who had asked me to watch her mail and this was one letter I forgot to deliver. THE POT SMASHED AND MADE LOUD NOISES ON A LETTER ADDRESSED C. PHILLIPS. My Conclusion:
Captain Phillips is winning Sound Mixing.
Love to all!
Claudiu, Joe Clinton beat me to it. Worthy responses in your novel there, friend 🙂
@Claudiu: A long post, but a good one.
Filmboymichael, +1. It’s too early for me because I took it seriously until the very end and thought…”how?” And then I realized it’s the internet.
Daveinprogress, for the 2nd time this article I 2nd your comment! Well said, sir! People are quickly losing sight on how awards should be given to movies. Either way, no matter who wins, the academy loses. If American Hustle wins best picture people will say “It’s Argo part two! The movie with the popar actors won! They voted for a vanilla movie! Racists!” If Gravity wins then we’ll hear, “They gave it to a movie that was filmed in a box!” If 12 Years a Slave wins they’ll say, “They voted for it because they were afraid to be called racists. They couldn’t give it to Gravity because the academy is full of white middle aged men who would rather die than see a movie driven by a middle aged female that dominated the worldwide box office.” The academy loses and it always will lose no matter what because people want to cherry pick the racial and gender topics of the day and apply it to a fucking awards show. Me? I’m just happy for such an amazing year for movies. I don’t have time to be a revolutionary and point my mid-20s white male finger at a bunch of people who’ve been in an industry I’ve only dreamed of being a part of. I’ve got no time to be angry about the academy’s choices and let it dilute how I feel about the movies that, rightly or wrongly, won. I’m just happy that my 3 most anticipated movies of 2013 that I released in March of that year stand chances to win the biggest Oscars of the night. Top 3…Gravity, then Her and finally 12 Years a Slave. When movies are so good that they’re good in their own way, what’s the next logical step to justifying a win? The racial and/or gender issues. It stops being about the movie itself and starts with who directed it, who stars in it, what’s the issue and what does it say about the industry. It’s almost painful to think this is what awards have come to, whether the academy is right or wrong about their choices.
Wow! That might be my longest post ever, anywhere…
I feel obligated to respond, since I’ve been championing the idea that Gravity should NOT be considered the favorite. But Sasha, please understand that it’s just my personal take on what your reasons for this change of heart might be and I’m not claiming to actually know them. And I’m not attacking you, just debating based on your article and points. So, please, don’t invite me to kiss your ass as well!… 🙂
Odds for Best Picture (after DGA):
12 Years a Slave – between 1.32 and 1.36 (I don’t know how to convert to the American form)
Gravity – between 3.25 and 5.0
American Hustle – between 3.5 and 11.0
Sasha, you’re being way too pessimistic. I can ASSURE YOU that the bookies (well, the oddsmaking firms or whatever) are also quite aware of the Academy’s tendencies, both recent and historical. I work in the betting industry and have spoken with people about it as well. I’m sticking with them this year, since you decided to abandon ship for, in my opinion, questionable reasons. I guess you just absolutely refuse to ever predict a split. I’ve already told you why I think that’s wrong. One of us will have possibly gained an important theoretical victory when the Oscars announce the BP winner, unless American Hustle wins – I would, however, point out that I have it 2nd now, whereas you have it 3rd. 🙂 I know you have no interest in this “race” between us, I’m just saying… Besides, it’ll probably be you who wins anyway, because we never get our way and have our favorite win Best Picture these days. 🙁
“Gravity is the modern masterpiece in that way. It will play all over the world and barely require subtitles. Its win would represent the Academy’s moving forward to accept and embrace this modern trend”
Yeah, ’cause we all know how they LOVE to embrace modern trends…
“If you have a choice between a film that makes you feel bad or uncomfortable and a film that makes you feel good and contented, industry voters nowadays will choose to feel good every time.”
This is a good argument for Gravity winning, even though it can be argued against – see below.
As for 12 Years not being seen by enough people, I would like to point out that enough producers saw it… I don’t know how their average age and tastes compare to those of the Academy overall (any data on this would be helpful) but, lacking such knowledge (or ideas about where to obtain it), I can’t see any reason to assume they’re too different. Plus, like someone else said, the Academy members have even more time left to see it.
“we don’t get to be the good guys.” (in 12 Years a Slave)
Actually, we kind of do – someone made this point, I think it was on IMDb: all of the white characters from the middle part of the movie (Solomon’s captivity, which is about 90% of the whole movie) are either monsters or, rarely, weak-willed (like Cumberbatch’s character). Watching them be so monstrous we, the viewers, get to congratulate ourselves on how vastly different we are from them, how far we’ve come since those horrible times. I don’t see this as a flaw – it was inevitable for either this or the opposite to be true, no matter how they chose to approach the subject. But I do think that 12 Years a Slave DOES make us feel better about ourselves, as long as we have the patience and stomach to sit through it all. The audience even gets a character who expresses this modern point of view (Pitt’s).
“Our American past is ugly, as ugly as anything yet Hollywood has thus far refused to own it in any significant way. Gone with the Wind, Driving Miss Daisy, Django Unchained, Crash — these are Hollywood and Oscar’s tidy answers to dealing with the race issue.”
Also a very good point, of course. I don’t think these are enough, though, when there’s clear evidence that they DO favor 12 Years quite a bit. It could easily have gone the way of Lincoln last year – it didn’t. It’s winning stuff, even with the guilds. There’s clearly love for it, even within the Academy.
“American Hustle is more the kind of film the Academy ordinarily supports.”
So why aren’t you predicting it to win? It has enough of the necessary precursors…
“What American Hustle lacks is gravitas. There is nothing particularly urgent at stake, so if you vote for that you are most likely opting out of the narrative in any awards race that winning films must be at least feign some sort of “importance.””
How about The Artist? Plus the other examples given by Yogsss – and I’m sure there are others.
“Again “reverse psychology” tricks are in place….”
I thought so too at first, and it might be PART of it, but no, I believe this is just Sasha telling us all again that you should never predict a split. (and being disappointed that McQueen didn’t win the DGA)
“Had the movie received more nominations, it would definitely be a lock for the win.” – about 12 Years a Slave.
Yes, that’s its biggest problem, clearly. But the other two have even bigger problems… (although with AH it’s debatable)
“Rules can be broken”
But you shouldn’t bet on it. That’s what Sasha’s doing, in a way, by predicting Gravity for BP, because it’s winning BD. But I think she’s interpreting the stats for competitive years the wrong way – as I’ve stated before, with evidence.
“it is somewhat surprising that American Hustle isn’t doing better. Losing the PGA (and two 2 (!) films no less) and the DGA may have made it look like it crushed the film’s Oscar potential but I don’t think it’s that grim.”
Exactly. And just an excellent post in general, phantom!
“the Best Actress nom IS the best ensemble nod for Gravity.”
Nope! If Clooney had also been nominated or if, maybe, Bullock had an actual chance of WINNING Best Actress, then maybe. But, as it stands, your point is not valid.
“Now the writers part I can get it, but is not the kind of film that gets all the accolades because of it’s writing.”
So? It should be, apparently, if it wants to win BP, or so history says.
“Gravity’s nomination for Screenplay at the BAFTA’s is just the same as Ben Affleck getting a Best Actor nomination for Argo. They love the movie enough to champion it where no one else would.”
That, on the other hand, is a very good point.
“Gravity was my personal favorite film of 2013. However I don’t want it to win Best Picture because it wasn’t the film I thought was the BEST. In my opinion, that is 12 Years a Slave.”
It’s similar in my case, though it’s not my favorite. It (Gravity) is, however, the movie I’ve watched the most so far this season (3 times – I don’t like to rewatch movies until I get bored of them, I prefer to let some time pass).
“the SAG Ensemble snub, obviously one-(wo)man-shows don’t really qualify there, what I meant was that one-man-shows don’t necessarily appeal to the remarkably dominant Actors branch,
ESPECIALLY if the film in question is technical extravaganza. Precedent actually backs that up, that’s why the SAG Ensemble nod/award has been considered crucial, because the Academy tends to give BP to films with big ensembles. Bullock got a nod but that doesn’t mean Actors love the film, it means they love Bullock.”
Glad that SOMEBODY gets it…
“It would be awesome to see a sci-fi/drama getting recognition from an institution so known for snubbing sci-fi.”
It would, but, preferably, when it is actually also the best of the year. Which, for me, it’s not.
“-editors will appreciate 12′s stunning selected images.
-prod designers, costumers, and makeup branch will give plenty of votes to 12.
-even though it missed a nod, the sound people will appreciate 12; isnt it up for like 5-6 MPSE awards?”
There you go! This to put a stop to this whole idea that Gravity getting a lot of technical nods means those guys will vote for it. Sound and visual effects have far less to do with what is the best movie of the year than acting and writing do, and that’s pretty obvious to all, I think.
“I believe that the snubs against 12YAS in music and cinematography are so egregious they are like an omen against the film’s Oscar chances.”
Yes, but you’re exaggerating. There’s no hard, statistical evidence to sustain this.
“For 12YAS to win Best Picture at the Oscars, it has to win one acting, editing, screenplay – at the LEAST. Anything less going into the last 15 minutes will be pointless to think it’ll win.”
If Lupita and the screenplay win, I believe that’s enough. There aren’t really so few winners that have only won 3 in total. Even recently…
““American Hustle’s” 10 nominations shows a lot of love from a lot of branches (especially the actors). The DGA will not decide for the Academy. This race is wide open.”
+1
“Precious had some really bad moments in it (Precious running with a bucket of chicken?) but I did love it.”
It did – and I DIDN’T love it…
“I know there is a lot of hype around Gravity but between myself and most of the people I have had a chance to talk to about the movie, no one sees this as a GREAT film. Technically speaking, it was a good movie to watch but I compare it to Avatar. Fun to watch but there was no real story and (for me) the acting was subpar.”
I agree, for the most part. It’s much better than Avatar, though. That one was just painful. Gravity is even better visually, has a story that is at least engaging and is far, far better directed. Even the dialogue isn’t as bad as in Avatar, though bad it is. Probably other things too.
“No one seemed to have a problem with Argo winning last year”
Are you serious? Almost EVERYONE did, at least on the internet…
“predicting the oscars using historical data is useless”
You clearly haven’t been studying said data if you’re saying stuff like that – I’ve been EASILY predicting what will win BP accurately for many years now, and I ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY use the historical data. Others have too, obviously… The Oscars are probably THE most predictable thing in the world when it comes to statistical data and how it correlates.
“Cuaron has not been making movies long enough to be overdue.”
Agreed.
“Whether you blame McQueen’s direction or the sparse screenplay or even the acting, you can definitely argue that the characterizations were thin, too distant.”
Yes, you can. And you can also definitely and easily argue that they weren’t – as many have, both here and on other sites. The critics don’t seem to share your opinion either. But, of course, nobody is right or wrong here. It’s just that you’re in the minority.
“Feel good trumps Feel bad any day.”
And actually thinking about all aspects of a situation before evaluating it trumps making radical, simplistic statements such as this one any day, and twice on Sunday.
LOL Gail
Keep the reports coming! Commenter of the season in my book!
I agree that Oscar voters should watch the nominated films before voting, but let’s be realistic — they’re not going to. Many of the people who vote on Oscars are just regular Joes, and they want to watch movies they think they’re going to like. Which is why, even though it’s fun to debate about them, the Oscars in general shouldn’t be taken very seriously.
Though I agree that voters shouldn’t be coerced into watching anything they don’t want to (and that honey in general is better at persuading people to do something they ordinarily wouldn’t do than vinegar), ultimately the fact remains that as voters (whom I’m sure take their status as AMPAS members at least somewhat seriously), it’s their god damn responsibility to watch all the nominated films, no matter how unpleasant the experience may be. Refusing to watch 12 Years for any reason is a gross dereliction of that duty.
Gail Withers – thanks for the morning giggle. It really made me smile.
Although Philomena is in my top 5 – hell I would even venture to say it is in my top 2 – I don’t take much stock in your comment. Best actress is a category this year, where the weakest performance is still great. This IS one of Dench’s best performances and it would be a great surprise to see her win. But I have to call BS on the woman you quoted.
Maybe voters are reluctant to watch “12 Years” because sites like this one are turning it into something that’s “good” for you, that you’re obligated to watch and be in awe of. No one wants to have a movie forced down their throat like it’s medicine.
Just got back from a quick meeting in LA- and ran into some senior members of the academy. Won’t mention any names- but what this 70 year-old Caucasian woman told me was revealing and relevant to this year’s race. I approached her, and she was in tears.
“Why are you crying?” I inquired.
“I just saw Philomena. It’s so amazing, I’m voting for it in all categories including Best Picture.”
“That’s amazing. Did it really touch you?”
“Yes, it did. Judi Dench was a tour de force. That woman should have 9 Oscars, damn it! She’s a cinch for the lead trophy. And the movie is winning the top award March 2nd, believe me. Other ladies in my age group attest to this.”
Then I asked her “What about 12 Years a Slave?”
“What? Is that a film?”
“Yes, and it’s won the Producer’s Guild of America award as well as the Golden Globe. It’s competing with Gravity.”
The woman hushed me, and said: “I haven’t heard of either of those movies. It sounds like a lot of nonsense to me. Philomena was the most heartbreaking movie I’ve seen in thirty years. It’s winning!”
Before I could ask anything else, she was whisked away in her limo with the rest of her group.
There you have it folks. We’ve been looking at this race ALL wrong. Philomena is going to take top honors, I can just feel it. And now that an older academy voter has confirmed this (and the fact that she hadn’t even heard of 12 Years a Slave) means there will be a lot of upset Taylor Swift reactions five weeks from now.
That’s all for now my dears- take this information however you must.
Sasha doesn’t write that you’re philistine if you don’t prefer Gravity. And yes, it’s no fact that 12 Years A Slave is the better film. But it’s no fact that Gravity is better directed. And Gravity fans keep writing as if it were. They’re different films. Yes, I consider Gravity absolutely average (thin on story, with superficial acting and yes, great visuals, but that’s all) and I think 12 Years A Slave is a beautiful piece of filmmaking, but out of the nine films I would choose Her as the year’s best. But at the same time it cannot be denied that the industry is going with the film that seems like an easier choice, because Sasha is right that there is talk of voters refusing to watch 12 Years A Slave and Gravity isn’t a film that’s divisive for reasons other than the quality of filmmaking people see in it.
@moviewatcher
AMEN!
I love how Sasha completely dismisses any legitimate criticism of any film directed by or starring a black actor in a leading role. The butler WAS oscar bait! Come on Sasha, you of all people should know that. It was a mediocre effort at best, with strong performances by Whitaker and Oyelowo, but a pretty horrible script and Oprah wasn’t really giving any performance there. I really liked fruitvale actually. Heavy handed here and there but it is nowhere near the artistry of the true best films of the year: 12YAS, Inside Llewyn Davis, Blue is the Warmest Color and Before Midnight. And that is not surprising. It’s a first time director. It’s an interesting film, fruitvale, but it’s no 12 years a slave, which is amazing on a visual and visceral level. The language the characters speak and Ejiofor’s performance are absolutely stunning.
People are praising a black movie made by a black man and starring black actors. Critics and audiences don’t put films on their top 10 lists just because it’s the “year of the african-american film”. We see the films, judge which are best and are not forced by anyone to like all black films. People shouldn’t be FORCED to like the films you like and to like 12YAS. Just because the Utah film critics thought Gravity, a film which has received very similar acclaim to 12YAS, was the best film of the year doesn’t make them racist. Stop assuming that you know what’s behind people’s critical judgements. Stop thinking that everyone has an agenda against women and black people. Please.
Actually there were many movies this year that were better directed than “12 Years a Slave” and “The Woolf of Wall Street”: “Gravity”, “American Hustle”, “Before Midnight”, “Mud”, “Blue is the Warmest Colour”, “The Past”, “Blue Jasmine”, “Captain Philips” and so on. But “Gravity” is surely number one (I’m not a fan of this movie [the story is very weak and Sandra Bullock is as forgettable as always] but I respect the Cuaron’s work as a director) so the choice that DGA (and HFPA or BFCA have made) was appropriate.
@Zach
The more we turn our racehorses into beacons of hope, the more we turn a blind eye to the perfectly logical reasons why others may vote differently.
This. I think too often people around here, Sasha included, forget that at the end of the day it is nothing more than an awards show and beauty pageant for the Hollywood scene, not some great civil rights movement. Yes, 12 Years a Slave is a great movie. Does it deserve to win BP? I certainly wouldn’t mind if it did, despite my favorite movie (Her) not standing a chance. Will it really change the world? No. The Oscars, to quote the late great George C. Scott, are a meat parade, and the sooner people remember that the sooner they can stop getting so worked up about and simply enjoy it for what it is. The trick is not minding, right? Sheesh.
It’s laughable how all the 12YAS supporters have sprung out to defy Sasha’s logical article. Feel good trumps Feel bad any day. If you are gonna make a movie about a man that goes to hell and back, you HAVE TO unleash a mighty emotional punch at the end. 12YAS does not do that. It’s ending is too restrained.
I would say that such movies have a better chance at winning Director than Picture.
Case in point: The Pianist, Brokeback Mountain
Movies with a painful story, and not enough of an emotional punch at the end.
Has it ever dawned on anyone that if 12 Years a Slave loses, it’s not because of any racist motives or because the film is too dark, but because enough voters couldn’t overlook its flaws and preferred Gravity or American Hustle? I admire Slave a lot, but it’s deeply flawed. Whether you blame McQueen’s direction or the sparse screenplay or even the acting, you can definitely argue that the characterizations were thin, too distant. The more we turn our racehorses into beacons of hope, the more we turn a blind eye to the perfectly logical reasons why others may vote differently.
Isn’t change and progress and a rewriting of history worth celebrating? Does it have to have a disclaimer? As a gay man, watching William Hurt win for Kiss of the Spider Woman, it felt like a great victory. It was a certain cliche of homosexual, it wasn’t played by a gay actor, but the visibility and the stories like his being recognised was progress. Longtime Compsnion, Philadelphia, A Single Man… Gone with the wind in ’39 was progress, Sidney Poitier, Whoopi, Lou Gossett… Lina Wertmuller, Jane Campion, Sofia Coppola…Kathryn Bigelow. They gave great performances, directed great movies, wrote great screenplays…. As a gay jewish man, I seek no caveats for the milestone achievements that blacks, gays, women, jews whoever they are. I celebrate them and wish for more to come. I wept when Hallie Berry won, and I am not a black chick; I was delighted when Kathryn Bigelow won, for all the amazing women artists whose work has NOT been recognised. Did she need to make Jane Austen or Steel Magnolias to be really wonderful? Of course not. If Cuaron wins, his achievement is multi layered. He will be the first Mexican to win that prize. He has made an incredible film which furthers the brilliance that current technology and artistry affords him and his collaborators. But getting real about this, he hasn’t invented penicillin or cured AIDS, neither has Steve McQueen or Scorsese or Woody or Spielberg. It’s art. Cuaron winning will give hope to other filmmakers of EVERY nationality. So too Ejiofor, McQueen etc. Rant Over.
As always, an interesting and thought provoking piece, Sasha. I just rewatched 12 YEARS last night and it’s simply astonishing! The only film to top it this year for me is WOLF. That said, I totally see what you mean about AMPAS members not even bothering to put the screener in the player. I am hoping against hope though that 12 YEARS will win.
The only thing I take issue with is stating that “Cuaron is overdue.” I’m sorry but I have to disagree (and I love him and Y TU MAMA is a masterpiece in my eyes). Peter O’Toole was overdue. Hitchcock was overdue. Lumet was overdue. Altman was overdue. Cuaron has not been making movies long enough to be overdue. It’s like calling someone like Reese Witherspoon a ‘legend’ or Hilary Swank an ‘icon.’ Sorry, no.
Now this might not have been your personal opinion and you may have just been examining the way the Academy thinks. And if that’s the case then they need to wake up and realize it’s Scorsese who is LONG overdue the second Oscar he should have won in 1990 for GOODFELLAS (first should have been for RAGING BULL).
But all of that is just my opinion…and this isn’t brown nosing but what I love about this site is you and Ryan galvanize people into thinking and exploring and weighing and rethinking…your passion is infectious and that is so vital.
interesting article, but wrong. let me count the ways…
1. 12 year a slave will win movie and gravity director, and that is a completely valid judgement based on quality, independently of it being a consensus or an individual decision.
2. the “doesn’t make you think (unless you want to)” statement is valid for any of the movies, i would argue even more for wall of wall street than for gravity. that’s a bogus thing to say. in fact, i would argue that if you “don’t think” or watch a movie at the very superficial level, 12 years is better than gravity, just as a story. gravity is more than an spectacle only if you “think”, and that’s what the academy and other have done and why they are awarding it. inception forces you to think more than 12 years or wolf…
3. i can assure you that unless for a tiny (irrelevant) minority, the whole effects-driven-blockbuster thing doesn’t enter into the equation for voters. they vote for what they think it’s best. sometimes it’s the hurt locker or no country and you approve, and sometimes it’s the king’s speech and you don’t. the return of the king happened you know? hard to think of a more tentpole effects driven blockbuster… or even titanic for that matter. the academy always showed love for big splashy films, as long as they felt important.
4. they did watch the screeners for 12 years. they always watch the screeners of the movies with buzz. even if it’s gay cowboys and they end up not thinking it’s as good as others say it is.
5. no film other than wolf was better directed?? c’mon! that’s just false. i can go on and on about this, but i won’t. but i will say that cuarón won the dga and will win the oscar because his directing was more of the centerpiece of the film, even more so than the acting (which was great, but i would argue would have worked just as well with a different actor/actress), and it’s the main reason the film is a success. which is the same reason why actors (or any other technical branch) win oscars, because their individual contribution was a stand out. you have to be noticed to win awards.
and just like predicting stock prices using previous performance as an indication of future performance is the surest way to fail miserably, predicting the oscars using historical data is useless. each year is a blank slate, and they will pick the movie they think is best and as much as you think you know them and what they’ll like you really don’t. and by reducing (or more like ridiculing) them to say their tastes are based on being old, white, horny, lazy, etc. you are just helping yourself feel better when their choices don’t match yours.
one thing i can predict though is how much you’ll love gone girl and how around this time next year you’ll be writing long pieces about how what fincher did was above everything anyone else had done and that whichever guild/critic circle/globes/academy/whatever failed to recognize it is not brave/smart/daring/whatever enough…
Gravity makes sense as a Best Picture winner. It allows the Academy to embrace bravura technical filmmaking and Box Office performance while continuing to honor artistic excellence (for all the talk of box office, this is the same group that picked Hurt Locker over Avatar. The Academy wants to maintain a bit of artistic credibility, and Gravity allows them to honor multiple elements at once).
If Gravity beats 12 Years a Slave (which I think is still very much up in the air), it would be a mistake to read too much into it. It doesn’t mean the Academy doesn’t want to reward black artists, or black subject matter. People who have seen 12 Years a Slave love it, as do I. A narrow defeat to Gravity doesn’t change that. 12 Years a Slave is a brutal movie about a brutal, repulsive part of our history. That watching such a film might be too difficult for some people to absorb and respect doesn’t make them stupid or racist.
In a sense, Best Pic is the award that allows Hollywood to tell the world which “type” of movie they support, and on those terms, Gravity makes a lot of sense. An internationally friendly blockbuster with a great lead, audience friendly, and critically beloved. This is no Argo, the Artist, or King’s Speech. It would be a truly deserving winner.
But don’t rule out a split. The one time a movie dominated the Oscars and lost Best Pic was 1972 (Cabaret/The Godfather). 7 Oscars to Gravity and Best Pic to 12 Years a Slave would be an incredibly satisfying evening.
Dear lord are you delusional. In no world is 12 Years THIRD in the race. Stop trying to victimize a film that’s already about victimization. You inject racial politics into EVERYTHING and it’s hilarious how you continue to bash films that you formerly loved, simply because your personal favorite is, in your eyes, not winning.
Is 12 Years important? Yeah, I suppose so. It’s probably the most brutal movie involving slavery I’ve seen. However, because it’s “important” people refuse to, or are afraid to, mention all of it’s flaws. It is, hands down, the most heavy handed film I’ve seen in years, and the choices that are made script wise are so paper thin and lack any ambiguity at points.
Is Gravity the best film of the year? No, however it’s thin story, combined with Bullock’s performance, allow Ryan Stone to be sort of a placebo and you can place yourself in that situation. It’s terrifying, tense, and incredibly emotional at points. No one seemed to have a problem with Argo winning last year, when it was nothing more than an action film with decent acting and a somewhat political undertone. Gravity is an action film with GREAT acting and, probably, the most extraordinary visuals we’ve ever seen.
It also pisses me off that you bash other “African American” films that were successful at the Oscars. Precious portrays black people badly? That shows your insane amount of ignorance. Mary was a monster yes, but with major help from her own experiences and situations. Precious herself was a complete inspiration, learning how to take care of herself and her children, while escaping the life that almost swallowed her whole.
All signs point 12 Years wins Best Picture. How can you vote against “slavery is bad” – regardless of aesthetic merit, which the film also has…
I enjoyed this piece for the most part because it kind of expanded on what I said in another article written just a few days ago. There seems to be a consensus that the race for Best Picture is between the three movies mentioned and I think that in a conventional year, none of them would really have a chance. I know there is a lot of hype around Gravity but between myself and most of the people I have had a chance to talk to about the movie, no one sees this as a GREAT film. Technically speaking, it was a good movie to watch but I compare it to Avatar. Fun to watch but there was no real story and (for me) the acting was subpar. I still think that Emma Thompson should have been nominated and I personally would have put her in the running over Sandra Bullock. But it seems to be the front runner for Best Director.
12 Years a slave seems like it has the best chance of winning Best Picture. I find that weird considering the “chart” says that it has the 4th best chance of winning Editing. I said back in November that I felt like this was the worst edited film of the year and I thought it would come back to bite it in the ass at some point. I think my friend put it best when she said that the film was the most emotional due to the subject matter but it wasn’t the best film of the year.
And as for American Hustle, I personally feel like this was the best movie of the three but I still don’t think it was the best film of the year. I certainly didn’t think that either male lead should have been nominated (especially Christian Bale who took a nomination from Tom Hanks and/or Robert Redford). I could see all three of these movies winning one each in the Best Picture/Director/Editing category but I have no idea which one would win what. If I had to take a guess…I am going to say American Hustle in Editing, Curaron for Gravity and 12 Years for Best Picture…and if that happens what a weird year 2013 would be!
Pepper
The problem with Adams’s performance that it is in such a big, loud ensemble piece with everyone having their carefully calculated ‘Oscar moment’, that it is very hard for her to stand out let alone be considered the one who carries the film…something that is required from any lead acting contender. The only one who is in a similarly big ensemble piece in Best Actress this year is Meryl Streep but she does carry the film without a shadow of a doubt. The others’ films are ALL about them – Blue Jasmine, Gravity, Philomena – that’s why in comparison Adams doesn’t come off as strong as one would expect from a potential winner. The good news is, her time will come maybe even as soon as next season (Tim Burton’s Big Eyes distributed by Harvey Weinstein)…although the great Jessica Chastain plays one of the greatest female roles ever written (Miss Julie) directed by the legendary Liv Ullmann, so I wouldn’t bet on Adams’ win just yet, but a nomination is definitely a strong possibility sight unseen strictly based on pedigree.
I would really like Sasha to address what others have pointed out…was Bigelow’s win less signifact because she didn’t make a film about women but instead of male soldiers? Ang Lee’s first or even second win because they weren’t about his heritage?
I know her performance is very unpopular here, but if not for Blanchett, I think Adams would win the Oscar this year. She and the film are clearly beloved within the Academy, and with 5 nominations and no Oscar, she really is due.
Bottom line – we probably agree that the biggest fear/worst case scenario is for American Hustle to sweep in and nab it from under both of them. It could be that type of year.
Consider than in close contested years a handful of votes decides the outcome. Bush v Gore and what have you
Properly, David O. Russell’s film is about Jews and Italians.
You don’t have to be a Philistine to love “Gravity” (but it doesn’t hurt).
I respectfully disagree with the point that Gravity has to be about the Mexican experience to be significant to us Mexicans if Cuaron wins.
We don’t need to be ghettoized (Mexicans deal with Mexicans, gays deal with gays) to be recognized. It can work either way.
Bigelow was a huge deal and she didn’t make a movie about the female experience.
I like 12 years a slave a lot and of course agree with you that it’s win would be historic, important, and significant. I agree with you that it’s a shame on the academy that no movie dealing with this subject has own and that no black director has won, and that those wonderful movies get sidelined.
I just take issue with the discounting of the Cuaron win. Respectfully, it would mean a lot to Mexico and Hispanics. Just read, I ask you, some of the Latin press coverage of the oscars. The excitement over an oscar finally being within our reach is rising to amazing to watch proportions.
I’m sad it has to happen like this- the first black director vs the first latino- either win would be amazingly significant in different ways.
Our national shame with respect to blacks is of course not comparable to anything else, but in terms of opening doors etc it will mean a lot.
They can’t have a BP tie but maybe a BD tie?
Ryan / Dave, you two are cracking me up ! 🙂
“And film stars with awkward accents who can only overcome that disability by struggling to remain devastatingly handsome and dancing like dreamboats. I wanna cry whenever I think about how Leigh Anne Tuohy had to drive her Mercedes to the bad part of town that one time.”
“AMPAS should have Lily Tomlin standing by to announce either screenplay or director. I’d bet she can’t see the teleprompter and does her own thing.”
Actually that is the only angle that could make a Russell win in either category, bearable for me.
Lily Tomlin : “And the Oscar goes to…oh shit, it’s that fucking c… David O. Russell” 🙂
Spare me. Another “if you prefer Gravity you’re a Philistine” tirade. Believe it or not, there are people in the world who love challenging cinema and who still don’t like “12 Years” as much as “Gravity” just because they don’t think it’s as good a movie. Contrary to what this site would have you believe, it is not an objective fact that “12 Years” is better than all of its competition. Hell, I liked at least four of the other best pic nominees (“Gravity,” “Her,” “Nebraska,” and (gasp!) “American Hustle”) better than McQueen’s slog. But I guess that brands me as an idiot who doesn’t know anything about film. How will I ever live with the shame……
As daveinprogress said, thank you Sasha and Ryan for doing what you do! Things get heated every year around Oscar time and we stick with you. Thanks for all the great articles you put out and convos you engage us in 🙂
I hope I’m not a hipster for disliking The Butler (which I just watched hours ago). I’d rather be seen as an analyst and I knew a meh movie when I saw it. It wasn’t completely bad but I’ll say the same thing I said to my wife, “Cecil felt like a supporting character in his own story. If anything his “inactions” propelled his son’s actions to change the world.” Cecil was a fly on the wall. Now I wish David Oyelowo was the lead and Whitaker was supporting because everything involving Louis’s arc was good. The stunt casting got pretty ridiculous. It’s a movie I liked enough but only just…it should’ve been way better than it was.
Ryan, Precious had some really bad moments in it (Precious running with a bucket of chicken?) but I did love it. That may have been due to Sidibe and Mo’Nique though, talk about owning their roles!
Regarding Sasha’s comment on Cuaron winning would be like Hazanavicus part 2, it’s kind of strange that a minority winning is only great if the movie they direct is about their own people or their struggles. Sasha, I get what you’re saying but then it makes me think other winners that were groundbreaking is somehow…lessened. Ang Lee winning twice? Last I checked him winning for Brokeback Mountain was one of the best ever given…that buzz to fade away minutes later. What about Bigelow? Is her Oscar win like Hazanavicus because she made a story about 3 men in the military? Im pulling or McQueen here but if I were to pick a 2nd it’d be to Cuaron. Racial backgrounds aside, they both made amazing films and that’s what should be judged.
I still think there will be a split at the Oscars, unless Gravity wins Best Film at the BAFTAs. I am skeptical of that, though. But we’ll see.
“to be fair – most characters that are messed up, beaten down and exploited are right up the academy’s alley.” The Royal f-f-f-Family, case in point. And film stars with awkward accents who can only overcome that disability by struggling to remain devastatingly handsome and dancing like dreamboats. I wanna cry whenever I think about how Leigh Anne Tuohy had to drive her Mercedes to the bad part of town that one time. 🙂
Aaragon accused people of playing the race card in many threads. Then always race baiting people.
I also love the split screen image at the top of this thread, especially the David O Russell one. It seems that he is looking at himself and his own hand span rather than the two shot of Cooper/Adams.
How far up himself could he go?
I understand if that was moderated and expunged. I was just in a frivolous mood, and when you gotta frivol, you just gotta frivol.
As mentioned before I really pay attention and enjoy the State of the Race. With thanks and wishing Ryan and Sasha the requisite endurance for the weeks ahead.
AMPAS should have Lily Tomlin standing by to announce either screenplay or director. I’d bet she can’t see the teleprompter and does her own thing.
Sorry I was just amusing myself after Steve50 and the American Chuckle and defying Gravity. I enjoyed those. Immensely.
Oh Sasha…this piece is just full of it. Sorry.
You do realize that The King’s Speech and Argo are historical as well, right?
Thanks for the giggle. 🙂
Seriously, though, the “softer” history portrayals won out over the heavier. This bodes well for American Chuckle …if it can find a way to defy gravity.
to be fair – most characters that are messed up, beaten down and exploited are right up the academy’s alley.
I’ve never said that I think The Butler is Best Picture material — because personally I feel all the Best Picture nominees we got are each better than The Butler.
That wasn’t the question I’m addressing. I’m only explaining how it’s not bashing Lee Daniels to say he portrayed black characters negatively in Precious. Messed up, exploited and beaten down black characters are right up the Academy’s alley.
Ryan, In that case,yes, the way black characters are portrayed could be different based on the director. However, characters themselves are also quite different, so is their social environment, both of which could be confounding factors in your controlled experiment…
Precious being lurid and Vulgar, yes..but totally unrealistic??? I don’t think so.
And Oh God, no. Lee Daniels is NO Steve McQ. That Butler was almost like a joke in terms of the overall quality!
I only wish Fruitvale Station and especially Octavia Spencer got more attention. I still think that her performance was better than most of the other supporting performances this year, including Lupita’s.
“Now have the aame director portrays Black people as upstanding citizens. Whoa! Where are all the corrupt black cops and sexually promiscuous black women?”
I’d also like to know where the good performances, the good makeup work and the solid direction were, because they weren’t on display in this slight melodrama.
So Precious gets flack for portraying Black people negatively, but snubbing The Butler is indicative of racial bias in the Academy? You jump to the defense of Lee Daniels only to tear him down later in the same article.
You couldn’t ask for a better demonstration of textbook definition of “controlled experiment” (“An experiment that isolates the effect of one variable on a system by holding constant all variables but the one under observation.”)
This is not about Lee Daniels. It’s about the portrayal of black characters in two different movies. Keep the same director. Just change one variable: How are the Black characters portrayed?
Stereotypically “urban ghetto”? Great, lots of people are happy to swallow that. Now have the same director portray Black people as upstanding citizens. Whoa! Where are all the corrupt black cops and sexually promiscuous black women?
(Precious was one of the most vulgar and lurid Best Picture nominees of all time. Lee Daniels is no Steve McQueen.)
If there is still a three-way race over the next month, can more websites/bloggers say it’s a split AMONG three films, rather than BETWEEN three? ‘Between’ is only used for two things, ‘among’ for three or more. Grammar nerd thing, I know, but something that makes me wince every time (and with the race as it is, I’ve been seeing it a lot). Otherwise, thank you as always for your perspectives on the race.
the Academy goes with what it loves, not what is most historic/’important’, which is why King’s Speech beat Social Network, and why Argo beat Lincoln.
You do realize that The King’s Speech and Argo are historical as well, right?
I have been reading Sasha’s words for years, and I appreciate her experience and connection to the process and her observations and participation in the film culture. To call it ‘childlike’ is infantile in itself. One (wo)man’s perceived petulance is another person’s passion. Here’s where the discourse is, there are plenty of lapdog awards’ junkies and sheep here in cyberspace.
I remember the times when Tom Hooper was getting attacked on this site for being a British director winning Oscar instead of an American director….and now this year, Steve McQueen’s nationality is completely ignored for his skin color!
Yes a black British director may win BD for a movie about slavery in America…but then according to some logic above, doesn’t that make it less important/meaningful/ etc????
By the way, If anyone in any other context said “someone should win because he is white” it would be called racism! But this year, almost every sentence about Best Director and Steve McQueen includes his race, and that is totally fine!
Also, I dont remember all the chat last year about the possibility of an Asian director winning BD Oscar for the second time..That was quite historic, wasn’t it???
starting to think that American Hustle will win the best picture award … weird
Sasha’s passion has been confused for “childlike” for years. She has a successful blog and if she wants to act condescending, defeatist, petty or absolutist, she can. People keep coming back.
But it does get annoying.
I just don’t see Gravity(set in space, two actors, CGI driven) or 12 Years A Slave(harsh for the Academy, social issue that the Academy still can’t face) winning Best Picture, I never have, so it’s weird to see them become the leaders in the race. I still feel like American Hustle is just as strong, the SAG win, Golden Globe win, and the 10 Oscar nominations. So I’m still going to go with American Hustle for Best Picture, Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director, and American Hustle wins Screenplay.
@Patryk: Trust me when I say that I love Judi Dench a lot, but Sandy would have been on a great position to win a second Oscar if not for Blanchett.
I’m not saying “she is the 2nd best performance of the year” all I’m saying is of all the nominees, she would be the leading one for being part of a critically acclaimed film, embraced by audiences, critics and guilds alike.
Dench would probably win because of Harvey. She’s amazing on everything she does but you know that it would be another move from “Harvey the Rascal.” Dench is too important as an actress to have the hate of many because she gets the Oscar and everyone and their mothers go “oh Harvey you did it again!”
“… if not because of Blanchett’s perfect performance, Sandy would be a lock for a second Oscar…”
I respectfully disagree with that sentiment. If Blanchett’s film had been released in another year, I fell confident that Dench would be a clear frontrunner.
And not just because Harvey is working so hard on it. It really is a loved performance from a beloved actress.
“American Hustle’s” 10 nominations shows a lot of love from a lot of branches (especially the actors). The DGA will not decide for the Academy. This race is wide open.
So Precious gets flack for protraying Black people negatively, but snubbing The Butler – the more white-friendly of the films by a wide margin, not to mention just poorly-made in general – is indicative of racial bias in the Academy? You jump to the defense of Lee Daniels only to tear him down later in the same article.
If this is an inappropriate place to post this, delete away and accept my apologies:
1 upstream color
2 her
3 inside llewyn Davis
4 the act of killing
5 Captain Phillips
6 gravity
7 prince avalanche
8 the hunt
9 before midnight
10 the great beauty
11 Stoker
12 short term 12
13 12 years a slave
14 The grandmaster
15 all is lost
16 the wolf of Wall Street
17 the place beyond the pines
18 we steal secrets
19 mud
20 Blue Jasmine
21 stories we tell
22 to the wonder
23 Nebraska
24 blue is the warmest color
25 rush
26 American hustle
27 saving mr. Banks
28 a hijacking
29 Philomena
30 the bling ring
31 the spectacular now
32 Pacific Rim
33 Prisoners
34 Dallas buyers club
Our American past is ugly, as ugly as anything yet Hollywood has thus far refused to own it in any significant way.
This is so true Sasha. It’s becoming more evident that this very sentiment may indeed cripple 12YAS and make March 2 a repeat of ‘The Color Purple’ 11 noms and 0 wins travesty. Because the BAFTAs voters don’t have the historical baggage of slavery in the UK, they may be stronger to recognize the importance of 12YAS and be able to vote it for Best Picture, because that’s what it is. I haven’t ruled out 12YAS winning BP, I just think the industry’s love for Cuaron/Gravity is becoming more crystal clear. It’s safe, two-fold for them to vote that way.
@Yogsss Lupita and Fassbender steal the show along some of the technical and artistic sides of the film
I absolutely agree. I feel that of the three acting noms, Lupita has the best chance in her category. The lazy ass bullshit sympathy easy voting for the Leto character, just because she was sweet and lovely, has all but left every other supporting actor’s performance in the dust, especially when people just focus on likeability of the character; that is an auto three-strikes against Fassbender because his character was nasty. Imagine that, a nasty character so not worthy of actually winning – the nomination is his prize – Gee, thanks. I hope Fassbender shines at BAFTA after being snubbed for Hunger, and losing for Shame to The Artist actor, it may be his only chance to be up on the public stage to humanize his role as Epps.
Had the movie received more nominations, it would definitely be a lock for the win. No nom for Music even if Zimmer has been nominated to every damn award and is one of the most popular composers at the moment? No Cinematography?
I believe that the snubs against 12YAS in music and cinematography are so egregious they are like an omen against the film’s Oscar chances. How in the fuck can those two categories, for this film, not even be nominated is beyond me! It’s blatantly obvious how devious these exclusions are.
For 12YAS to win Best Picture at the Oscars, it has to win one acting, editing, screenplay – at the LEAST. Anything less going into the last 15 minutes will be pointless to think it’ll win.
It is turning into an exciting race.
I’m still skeptical Gravity can overcome the Sci-Fi/Technical achievement label. If it wins the BAFTA, then maybe I’ll begin to believe it, and that it can win in the actors branch.
IMO, you really can’t compare this to last year. Argo came back because of the backlash of not nominating Ben Affleck, an actor, for best director, and the collapse of support for Zero Dark Thirty. By Oscar night, It was pretty clear it was winning BP.
I’ll agree with the point about reluctance to see 12 YAS. Though at this point, they’ll have to see it. For me, Blue Jasmine was more difficult to sit through.
I also agree with those who say don’t count out American Hustle.
Who the heck knows what will win. But I will say this:
-12YAS won the GG Drama, Critics Choice, PGA, and many critics awards
-it will likely win a handful of BAFTAs, with BP as a strong possibility.
-it is the film with the most gravitas.
-many actors will vote for 12YAS.
-plenty of Brits will vote for 12.
-most black voters will vote for 12.
-many writers, a large branch, will vote for 12; as it could potentially win Adapted.
-editors will appreciate 12’s stunning selected images.
-prod designers, costumers, and makeup branch will give plenty of votes to 12.
-even though it missed a nod, the sound people will appreciate 12; isnt it up for like 5-6 MPSE awards?
Now, thats just a case for 12. I could do one for Gravity and for AH with all its strengths. But I just wanted to point out that 12 has a lot going for it, as well.
Mike
At this point it seems like the most likely upsets could be in the acting categories.
1. Leonardo DiCaprio has excellent WOM so may pull a ‘Waltz’.
2. If Gravity wins big, Bullock could be the shocker of the night.
3. On the other hand, British-vote could secure Dench her first lead Oscar.
The only potential shockers worth discussing in the main categories are probably Scorsese in director and the Before-trio in adapted screenplay.
“I can’t imagine a working director today achieve the poetry and pain McQueen put on screen”
“No other director is as skilled at depicting pain on film, both physical and emotional.”
I personally think there are directors as skilled or more skilled at depicting pain on film, both physical and emotional. Coming to my mind right now: Michael Haneke, Jane Campion, Lars Von Trier, Abdellatif Kechiche, Bernardo Bertolucci, Clint Eastwood.
@filmboymichael – Gravity is a great choice for Best Pic/Best Director. I personally believe 12 Years should win but Gravity is fantastic too.
I asked where to post it, but no one told me where! NO ONE!!! 🙂
Am I allowed to post it here?
Yeesh, let the record show I’m “AdamA”–not the Adam who writes condescending comments about his “soft spot” for Sasha.
No other director is as skilled at depicting pain on film, both physical and emotional.
I’m sure you mean alive, right?
@Andre,
Where’s your list?
Is there any possibility there could be yet another twist or turn in the race? A lot of AMPAS voters are just now getting around to watching all the films (on screeners) and the ballots don’t even go out for another two weeks (and aren’t due until two weeks after that).
In a year this tight it seems like a lot of different scenarios could play out when there isn’t a consensus in the guild awards.
I can’t imagine a working director today achieve the poetry and pain McQueen put on screen.
No other director is as skilled at depicting pain on film, both physical and emotional.
Shouldn’t we just all be extremely happy we had such an abnormally good crop of films from last year?
I mean, my favorite film of 2013 has become my #5 of all time and NO ONE remembers or discusses it. See me complainin’? 🙂
Some people seem to think that Cuaron’s direction is a greater achievement in movie making than McQueen’s. I wonder how we can measure that. They are both good works but very unlike, each one proposes something totally different from the other in film making and storytelling.
+1
Exactly. But that doesn’t help right now. Maybe it’s even a jerk move to point this out while everyone having so much fun “proving” that Cuaron is greater than McQueen and vice versa.
I loved “Gravity” and will be fine with Cuaron taking Director, but I can’t help feel that Ang Lee or even James Cameron could have made the same film, where with “12 Years” I can’t imagine a working director today achieve the poetry and pain McQueen put on screen.
Great piece as always, but I can’t ignore what a child you can be sometimes Sasha.
“You are kindly invited to kiss my ass”
I understand (in a way) that you write moved by passion and love of what cinema and awards represent, so that may give you a pass (kind of).
Now, talking about Oscars, I haven’t been able to see 12YAS (in my country you have to beg to see this indie films get released), and I’d love to love it. But for now, my heart is with Gravity, so I’m proud and happy to see it getting the chance to win the big prize coming Oscar time.
It would be awesome to see a sci-fi/drama getting recognition from an institution so known for snubbing sci-fi. And with a film so beautifully and masterfully made, this just feels right.
Now I feel guilty for liking Gravity. **hangs head in shame for liking outerspace movies**
Cool!
I’m a “hipster” because I don’t consider The Butler to be one of the year’s best films!
Yogsss
1. Gravity was my personal favorite film of 2013. However I don’t want it to win Best Picture because it wasn’t the film I thought was the BEST. In my opinion, that is 12 Years a Slave.
2. I was NOT talking about the SAG Ensemble snub, obviously one-(wo)man-shows don’t really qualify there, what I meant was that one-man-shows don’t necessarily appeal to the remarkably dominant Actors branch, ESPECIALLY if the film in question is technical extravaganza. Precedent actually backs that up, that’s why the SAG Ensemble nod/award has been considered crucial, because the Academy tends to give BP to films with big ensembles. Bullock got a nod but that doesn’t mean Actors love the film, it means they love Bullock.
I don’t speak for Sasha, but she has never had a bad thing to say about Gravity, despite so many seemingly attacking her in this comments thread. Those who are, should look to her September 1 article that was quite rapturous toward the film. If you can’t find it, check out this link http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/cuarons-masterpiece-the-welcome-pull-of-gravity/
This year, more than most in recent memory, features a flock of films where even the weakest of the bunch are still tremendous achievements.
I would love to see 12 years take it all – but I can live with Gravity, Philomena, hell, even American Hustle taking it all in the end. We haven’t had a strong year such as this in, how long???
It is a great thing but unless his winning movie was about the Mexican or Mexican American experience it is akin to Michel Hazanavicus won as a French guy. Great and all…but…
So by that standard, should we diminish the historical impact of Ang Lee being the first non-white guy to win Best Director. Because last I checked, Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi were *not* specific to the Asian/Taiwanese experience. They were universal stories. Might as well say Lee was just the first Chinese guy to win.
Weight/importance of subject matter should be a factor, but is it an absolute standard? Do you pick Spielberg over Lee last year? Haggis over Lee in 2005? Do you harp on AMPAS for finally and belatedly nominating the great Akira Kurosawa for remaking King Lear over Spielberg in 1985?
“(no love from Actors, Writers) ”
Is Bullock’s nomination just my imagination? A sci-fi thriller getting an Acting nom shows support. I’m pretty sure that if not because of Blanchett’s perfect performance, Sandy would be a lock for a second Oscar. Is a film carried by a woman and A WOMAN ONLY.
You should be in awe that a film like that is even considered to be a BP winner. You might bring Shakespeare in Love? Yeah, it had a lead female, but it had a huge cast behind it.
If we are talking about the lack of SAG ensemble nod… Yeah, that stunning and large ensemble cast made of Clooney and Bullock was going to be nominated over ensemble pieces like August Osage County and American Hustle. The film never, ever had a chance to get an Ensemble nod. Never. If you have seen the film, you know perfectly that the Best Actress nom IS the best ensemble nod for Gravity. No, I’m not trying to spin anything on the movie’s favor, but I don’t want to spoil anything either.
Now the writers part I can get it, but is not the kind of film that gets all the accolades because of it’s writing. The Academy loves when you have lots of dialog for different characters and different story branches. What Gravity has is a female talking to 2 or 3 other dudes and then a lot of monologues on her part. Never had a chance either.
Gravity’s nomination for Screenplay at the BAFTA’s is just the same as Ben Affleck getting a Best Actor nomination for Argo. They love the movie enough to champion it where no one else would.
To anyone who thinks 12 Years a Slave is too violent to win, go watch The Silence of the Lambs. Then try Braveheart. And Gladiator. And The Departed. And No Country for Old Men. And note how the violence in 12 Years a Slave is more restrained and less gratuitous than in any of those films.
I’m waiting till BAFTA. Let’s see how they divide between the 2 “british” movies of the year.
Some people seem to think that Cuaron’s direction is a greater achievement in movie making than McQueen’s. I wonder how we can measure that. They are both good works but very unlike, each one proposes something totally different from the other in film making and storytelling.
Gravity’ script experiments with some elements out of the box for the “genre” [few characters, mixing the intimate drama with the epic atmosphere, a different timing in the scenes]. However the film sounds silly and sugary in its metaphors. The internal conflict of Sandra’s character is a pretty cliché – overcome the death of a dear one. But’s ok, let’s move. The movie keeps using outworn visuals metaphors to express her process of rebirth. Sandra floating in fetal position, Sandra getting out of the spacecraft in the water, like getting out of an egg; she learning how to “walk again”. I don’t know, it seems cheap to me. This kind of visual poetic seems silly and old to me. You can see this kind of drama e lyricism since old movies until students shorts.
But then, of course, there’s a lot of genius just right in the visuals of the film. That cinematography and the way Cuarón plays with time and rhythm, with intimate and universal makes us feel different emotions at the theater. The shot that the camera keeps turning along with sandra, her face on a close-up, could be alone a best picture winner.
What McQueen proposed to do on 12 Years a Slave is quite another type of film making. Forget about historic and racial issues, just pay attention to the “film form”. I think it’s more edgy on using the possibilities of film making. You see in his work some experiments with storytelling structure and timing of mise èn scene and editing, for example. Someone already wrote here a marvelous piece about his directing, his stillness and so. McQueen is what some critics call a formalist. He comes from contemporary visual arts, he plays with form.
I also think “Hunger” and “Shame” are way less palatable for the ordinary audience. In 12 years a slave he mixes some styles, makes it more easy for you to get in.
I’m rooting for 12 Years a Slave and Steve McQueen. I’m more interested in his research as a filmmaker. Maybe it’s a matter of taste. Although I can see better movies in the foreign language category.
Alfonso is the likely winner at Bafta and Oscars, ok.
But I just can’t let go the sci-fi factor and the lack of a script nod. Probably it doesn’t matter, it’s just my manias. But I also see in 12 Years a Slave the tearing period drama with a male character fighting against the struggles of life. Sounds like Academy
And I don’t think its place in this year’s race is similar to Lincoln.
Great piece as always, just a minor quibble
Really, though, at the end of the day what drives the passion vote for Gravity is that it is a feel good film anyone can watch and get. Anyone.
Sounds a bit condescending. Similarly at some level anyone gets Hitchcock’s masterpieces. That’s of course deceptive. Granted pretty incomparable styles, but it’s in the visual nuances and extravaganzas of GRAVITY that I’m sure you found other dimensions that moved you beyond words –in the realm of the abstract if you allow me. Also let’s not underestimate that much like Scorsese, Cuaron is a catholic filmmaker (provided different strands) and GRAVITY’s vision is plagued with this fascinating awareness. Of course many people would deride this, and that’s cool. Well there’s much other stuff we can get into. But it’s not the right time. I choose not to offer examples from the film because I’m open to attacks. Carry on.
Yawn. Typical Sasha Stone.
As for the race, Gravity should take Best Picture. Which means it won’t. Masterpieces very rarely win the big prize. At least Cuaron has Best Director.
12YAS is still very much the frontrunner. To paint it as the underdog and 3rd place is quite frankly, wrong, considering its predicted by vast majority of pundits and watchers to win Best Picture still. I suppose the reverse psychology is an effort to set up expectations to soften potential disappointment in case Gravity pulls the small upset.
“The Oscars are moving with the major studios towards our big budget blockbuster future — that seems inevitable. Anything else will belong to the ages.”
What??
Million Dollar Baby, Crash, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, The Hurt Locker, The King’s Speech, The Artist, Argo
These are the last 9 Best Picture winners. I don’t see a single “big budget” blockbuster on there.
@Markie27 I kind of like your pick of Squibb for Best Actress. There is usually a shocker no one sees coming and I have thought the same thing…looking at Squibb in an upset.
Here is why I think predicting 12 YEARS A SLAVE for Best Picture is still more of a viable theory than wishful thinking :
– Gravity may seem like the frontrunner because of the powerful PGA/DGA victories BUT we shouldn’t forget that producers and directors are not the Academy’s largest branches, those are the Actors (No1) and Writers (No5)…neither seem to be all over Gravity the way these very specific guilds ARE and in my opinion that could make all the difference in the end. A film could get away with the lack of support of one of those two branches (for example Titanic didn’t have a script nod, but had a big ensemble hence the actors’ support), but probably not both. I think the film’s best shot is a tie resulting in wins in director and a bunch of tech categories but I honestly don’t think it could appeal to the actor/writer-heavy Academy enough to take BP.
– For a film so (shockingly) unanimously praised, so financially succesful, with such a perfect track record (all the key nominations, guild support including oft crucial SAG Ensemble and Bafta-love), and – based on Argo – so obviously right up the Academy’s alley, it is somewhat surprising that American Hustle isn’t doing better. Losing the PGA (and two 2 (!) films no less) and the DGA may have made it look like it crushed the film’s Oscar potential but I don’t think it’s that grim. As I said, actors and writers are particularly dominant Academy branches and based on the Oscar nominations, both embraced American Hustle in a big way, resulting in the rare four acting nominations and an original script nod, although all FIVE categories were remarkably competitive this year and arguably had more deserving options than the AH-contenders. So that means the Academy LOVED it and more importantly, especially the branches that could have great effect on the final tally. Long story short, if the film wins the WGA on top of the SAG Ensemble and Golden Globe triumph, even with the PGA/DGA losses, it will have plenty for an upset…well the same Shakespeare in Love had. But the thing is, the perception isn’t great now, it doesn’t seem to be considered a major threat anymore and that, with the lack of gravitas and massive competition from not one but two films, could mean it will not only NOT win Best Picture but could even go home completely empty-handed. Script and Lawrence are the film’s best shots but even they are not the frontrunners in their respective categories anymore.
– And then there is 12 Years a Slave. A film – unlike American Hustle – of importance and gravitas. A film – unlike Gravity – that appeals greatly to the crucial Academy branches, the Actors and the Writers and – unlike American Hustle – is a frontrunner in both acting and writing categories (supporting actress and adapted screenplay). A film that could probbaly also rely on the powerful British-vote and the star power of Oscarless super star Brad Pitt. Giving the film Best Picture would mean giving an Oscar, his first Oscar, to Brad Pitt. I’m sure that angle crossed the minds of MANY voters. Not to mention, perception is strong, very strong and the sentiment seems to be that the film may be denied in most categories, but NOT in Best Picture, a category it won at the PGA, Golden Globes, Critics Choice and will probably win at the Baftas, too. Other than the lame “it’s too violent” argument, it literally has no real detractors, not really, especially taking into consideration the unanimous critical praise (97 MC) and the respectable Box Office (for a grim piece with a 17M pricetag, it is looking the very least at 110-140M worldwide).
Long Story Short : Gravity (no love from Actors, Writers) + American Hustle (lightweight with blemished perception) = 12 Years a Slave VICTORY
Sasha has confidently called 12YAS, Hustle and now Gravity as front runners. In truth Best Pic will be a toss-up between Gravity and 12YAS.
She’s right that the Academy goes with what it loves, not what is most historic/’important’, which is why King’s Speech beat Social Network, and why Argo beat Lincoln. Gravity seems to be the movie they love but momentum will change when BAFTA gives 12YAS it’s main prize. It all makes for an exciting race, for a change.
“[Gravity] is the movie that would fit the tagline used by the King’s Speech: some movies you feel.
Yeh, it exhilarated me. Briefly. 12 Years a Slave kind of gutted me, though, if we’re discussing feelings.”
+1 for Paddy. “Some movies you feel”– there are more ways to feel than exhilarated from a roller-coaster ride or toasty from the warm fuzzies. When you’ve been rattled down to your core, that’s also feeling, although apparently not the sort the Academy prefers.
I’m going to hang on to 12 Years for now. The PGA tie using the preferential ballot gives me hope. I didn’t abandon 12 Years three weeks ago when American Hustle was all but anointed the BP winner, and I’m not giving up on 12 Years now (admittedly, there’s much more evidence to support a Gravity win than there was to support an AH win). If BAFTA awards BP to Gravity over 12 Years, then that’s my cue to jump. Until then, I’m hanging with Slave to the bitter end.
Count me as one of the few who is not convinced by Gravity being the favorite to win. Like Argo, when 12 Years a Slave premiered, it dominated the conversation and continues to do so after the full slate of contenders premiered. It proved to be a consensus choice when it won at Critics Choice and PGA, and it has arguably the most passionate base of admirers. Furthermore, in discussing stats, people often don’t account for taste, which shows 12YAS as a more traditional winner. In the end, I think Gravity will end up like Life of Pi on Oscar night. Until BAFTA has its say, I’m sticking wih 12YAS.
“Gravity would be the first film to win probably since Shakespeare in Love in 1998 that starred a woman.”
Million Dollar Baby starred a woman, with a male co-lead, and Chicago starred two women even if one of them was pushed to the supporting category.
“Gone are the days where darkness reigned, when they could feel comfortable awarding something that didn’t end in a euphoric release.”
12 Years A Slave ends in euphoric release. The audience I saw it with was sobbing with joy at the end. It may put you through hell, but it certainly has a happy ending…relatively speaking.
“Actors rule the Academy and actors love directors who make movies with lots of them in it.”
Which is why we should not rule American Hustle out of the race yet. Anything is possible.
“Sasha, I’ll always have a soft spot for you, but you can be such a drama queen. You always “declare” what is going to happen rather than ponder. Your defeatist attitude can sometimes come across as petty and childlike. Until that envelope is opened, Gravity has not won Best Picture.”
You are kindly invited to kiss my ass.
“and ALFONSO CUARON COULD BE THE FIRST MEXICAN DIRECTOR TO WIN AN OSCAR FOR DIRECTING. just saying”
Been said again and again and again and again and again. It is a great thing but unless his winning movie was about the Mexican or Mexican American experience it is akin to Michel Hazanavicus won as a French guy. Great and all…but…
I may not agree with everything, but very well said, both Sasha and Yogsss.
[Gravity] is the movie that would fit the tagline used by the King’s Speech: some movies make you feel.
Yeh, it exhilarated me. Briefly. 12 Years a Slave kind of gutted me, though, if we’re discussing feelings.
Again “reverse psychology” tricks are in place….
I sure hope so, Aragorn. Sasha, you’ve suddenly become so pessimistic about 12 Years a Slave’s chances! I can’t fathom your certainty that the race is now over for that film. This narrative that Gravity now holds an irrefutable lead is nonsensical to me. I still expect BAFTA to amply reward 12 Years in major categories over Gravity.
Sasha, I’ll always have a soft spot for you, but you can be such a drama queen. You always “declare” what is going to happen rather than ponder. Your defeatist attitude can sometimes come across as petty and childlike. Until that envelope is opened, Gravity has not won Best Picture.
Luv the ‘State of the Race’. Brings it right up to speed. It has been an interesting ride this year, if only for the fact that those big 3 have been circling and keeping some pundits, this one included unsure of where it is all heading.
and ALFONSO CUARON COULD BE THE FIRST MEXICAN DIRECTOR TO WIN AN OSCAR FOR DIRECTING. just saying
One word: Wrong!
It has been a great year for films and no one can deny that. However, I don’t like the fact that politics get into what should be rewarded or not. Either is “a latino director” or “the first black director,” all that should matter here is the quality and achievement of those films. Goddamn we have seen some great achievements this year.
Gravity is tight as hell on every single aspect. Is a technical achievement like no other and will only speak well about the academy if they are capable to open their minds and say “hey, we can appreciate technical benchmarks too.” Is as deserving as some of the past winners. I’m a fan of Cuarón’s work but I don’t consider him overdue on the same level someone like Fincher is or Scorsese was years ago. I do consider him, unlike Hooper or Hazanavicius on the last couple of years, a well deserving one. A great great great deserving one.
I have to be honest about 12 Years a Slave. I didn’t like the film as much as the rest. Lupita and Fassbender steal the show along some of the technical and artistic sides of the film. It feels poetic just like previous McQueen efforts. Shame put me on the wrong mood and made me question my life for about 2 weeks, for example.
I problem with the feel goes with a lead that doesn’t feel that strong to me. I have also issues with both Cinematography and Music, specially the music.
My biggest issue, however, is that even if it has the poetic touch of McQueen, it doesn’t feel like a movie made by him. I respect and love the man because of Hunger and Shame, which is one of my all time favorite films.
Does that mean it shouldn’t win? Absolutely not. Is a movie with enough gravitas to get into the history books from now and years to come. It will be on everyone’s mouth every time the racial issue is put on the table, but ask yourselves this: Did Argo had any gravitas? Shakespeare in Love? Gladiator? You know the answer.
12 Years a Slave is too hard to swallow for the members of the academy. The passion is probably there, but who knows if it’s enough to put the movie on front.
Had the movie received more nominations, it would definitely be a lock for the win. No nom for Music even if Zimmer has been nominated to every damn award and is one of the most popular composers at the moment? No Cinematography? Not even the surprise token nomination for Sound that films like The King’s Speech or Argo got.
I might not know enough about the Oscars as Sasha and Ryan do (which trust me, I love for indirectly teaching me so much about films through this site and I’m forever thankful for that) but I can’t be the only one seeing this year as just any other year, where Gravity is the one to beat because of statistics, statistics and statistics.
Argo changed the rules without being anything special. Gravity IS special, and if it changes once again the rules (no Screenplay nom, no SAG ensemble nom, etc) then no one should complain. Rules can be broken, is just a matter of who does it.
Sorry for the long-ass post and in case you are wondering, my film of the year is Wolf of Wall Street. I’m hopeful it still can win either Actor or Adapted Screenplay. The Academy loves to give everyone a piece of the pie. I haven’t seen American Hustle so I can’t comment on it.
Greetings, everyone.
I hope grouping Django Unchained with really stupid movies that give easy answers to complicated topics like racism doesn’t mean you believe that this film is one of them. The movie is fun but it has many interesting and bold things to say about slavery.
I also admire the way you championing black filmmakers and keep talking about how the oscars dismissing them every year but I really can’t get behind the Butler. It’s a laughably terrible movie in every aspect and to give it a pass just because it has black filmmakers/stars and a “serious subject” is it’s own kind of discrimination.
I love Gravity. To me it is the most beautiful movie of last year. But I can’t help but think that 12 years a Slave will win best picture. I really don’t think it is that difficult to see people voting for 12 years for BP and the great Cuaron as best director. I see a split this year although how I wish gravity would sweep.
Best picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best director: Cuaron, Gravity
Actor: McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress: Blanchet, Blue Jasmine
Sup acts; Squibb, Nebraska (I predict a shocker in this category)
Sup actor: Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Script: Her and 12 years
Animated: Frozen
Vfx, both sound, cinema, score: Gravity
Song: Mandela
Costume and production: Great Gatsby
Makeup: Dallas Buyers Club
“But the industry has spoken. There will be no film directed by the first black director to win. There will be no films about African Americans to win any major prizes”
Not only does 12YAS have a strong chance to win “big prizes” (BAFTA, Oscars). But it also won the Golden Globe Drama, Critics Choice, and PGA; not to mention critics awards from all over the country.
?? :-/
And we shouldn’t discount that Cuaron will be the first Mexican director to win an Oscar. A lot of people will poo-poo the academy for being racist for not rewarding McQueen, but we should celebrate this landmark achievement for Cuaron. Good for him, good for Mexico and good for the academy for rewarding him in another month.
Again “reverse psychology” tricks are in place….