WGA Preview and Predictions

The WGA will announce their nominees tomorrow morning. Usually this happen around 10am.

The rules for inclusion at the WGA awards usually exclude many of the year’s best scripts – and thus, can sometimes render the WGA awards not useful come Oscar time. Kris Tapley announced the films that would be excluded this year and that includes John Ridley’s 12 years a Slave, the likely winner, or certainly the strongest contender, for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar.

In the original screenplay category, there are so many strong contenders heading into the race – American Hustle and Her are right at the top of the list.  But there is also Inside Llewyn Davis, Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, The Butler, Dallas Buyers Club and more.

The scripts that aren’t eligible include Fruitvale Station, Philomena, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, etc.  Check out In Contention for that list.

Last year’s WGA awards and subsequent Oscars for screenplay gives me PTSD to think about. I still cannot wrap my mind around writers who would give the win to Argo, or any movie, over Tony Kushner’s Lincoln.  To me, that was an unequivocal, towering achievement that deserved recognition if any script ever has. It invites hyperbole because it lives up to it.  That the voters went for the snappy and breezy and admittedly great Argo script shows you what kinds of things win awards. Achievement and ambition come second to entertainment.  It’s the old kitten in a teacup manner of voting, in my opinion.

It isn’t that Argo wasn’t great – it’s just that Lincoln was something far beyond what Argo was.  It’s really as simple as that. Then again, perhaps if I am always the one in disagreement with the consensus or the majority, I am the problem. So be it.  The consensus wants what it wants and last year it wanted Argo.

Moreover, Mark Boal did not win for Zero Dark Thirty and the Oscar voters gave the win to Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained, beating Amour and Moonrise Kingdom. Again, I am the problem because I can’t imagine a voting body that would award Django Unchained, as good as it was, over Zero Dark Thirty.  I loved Django Unchained as much as the next person but the only reason Zero Dark Thirty did not win was became of the so-called controversy around it.  But enough about that.

That brings us to today.   Finding your top screenplays this year isn’t going to be that difficult I don’t think as there are some major standouts.

Starting with original the WGA will likely go:

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Nebraska
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
And the alt. here would be Saving Mr. Banks and Dallas Buyers Club, which could take the place of Blue Jasmine, I would guess.  Gravity is also possible here.
Also: Enough Said, Nicole Holofcener (Short Term 12, Fruitvale are not eligible).

In the Adapted screenplay category it’s a little more interesting since many of the films that will likely get into the Oscar category are not eligible, including and most importantly 12 Years a Slave, but also Philomena, both I expect to get into the Oscar race. So that leaves us with:

The Wolf of Wall Street
Captain Phillips
Before Midnight
August: Osage County
And a fifth slot that is wide open – maybe The Spectacular Now, The Book Thief or maybe something altogether surprising, like Labor Day.

I don’t really know how the adapted category at the WGA will play out. It’s a lot easier to predict the Oscar nominees in that instance.

Here are the charts.

won WGA | won Oscar

WINNERS CHART

+Won Best Picture

*nominated for Best Pic

WGA | OSCAR