WGA Preview, Predictions and Contest

WGA PREDICTION CONTEST

It is sometimes the case that scripts that are ineligible for the WGA can go on to win the Oscar.   It depends on whether that film is a Best Picture frontrunner or not, like The King’s Speech for instance.  The general rule of thumb with screenplay, of course, is that the hotter the Best Picture contender the more likely it is to win for its screenplay, witness the debacle of last year where Tony Kushner’s marvelous screenplay was supplanted by Chris Terrio’s very charming and entertaining Argo.  There is and never will be a question in my mind as to which script should have won last year — but Argo’s script was certainly the kind of script lots of people like – snappy dialogue, memorable and quotable lines, etc.

The bottom line is that at WGA or at Oscar, Best Picture tends to lead the way.  Usually when predicting these awards you have to think about Best Picture and work back from there.  The exceptions to this are those screenwriters who are famous for being great, like Charlie Kaufman.  But generally speaking, a screenplay win can either be a confirmation of the film that is going to win Best Picture or a consolation prize for a film voters liked but not enough to award it the big prize.

This year, the supposed frontrunner for Best Picture, according to pundits, is 12 Years a Slave — they falsely believe that the Academy is going to split the awards giving Gravity director and 12 Years picture.  I will be stunned if that happens as it’s never happened before. Best Picture, in a split vote scenario, has always gone to the film voters “like” (Crash, Shakespeare in Love, Chariots of Fire, Gladiator) while director goes to the more somber, serious film – Brokeback Mountain, Traffic, The Pianist, Reds, and on and on it goes.   Nonetheless, that Best Picture heat could give John Ridley the win for the Oscar for 12 Years a Slave should that scenario play out.  Look, the truth is, anything can happen.  After the Affleck snub and subsequent win of Argo last year that kind of meant all bets were off where patterns and stats are concerned.  But let’s assume 12 Years really is the frontrunner to win. It probably isn’t just going to win Best Picture and Supporting Actress. My dear pundit friends ask yourselves when was the last time that happened?  It probably also isn’t going to win Picture, Supporting Actress and Screenplay, although Argo really did only win 3 Oscars last year.

But let’s just assume 12 Years is your Adapted Screenplay winner at the Oscars — it wasn’t eligible for the WGA.  Gravity was eligible but not nominated for either.  That suddenly means we are flying blind in adapted because none of the nominees have Best Picture heat.    That means you have to go with buzz and word of mouth.  To my mind there are two films that can win adapted – The Wolf of Wall Street and Before Midnight. I can envision a situation where either film wins but I’m going to tip my hat in the direction of Wolf, given that it is the film with the most Best Picture heat heading into the race.  I’ll still predict 12 Years to win in adapted at the Oscars (Ridley would be the second African American to win in that category. Ever.)

But the Wolf win could signal an Oscar win for that screenplay too, a la Django Unchained last year.  Django did not have to compete with Argo, however. Different categories.  But if the Academy is really going to only give 12 Years a Slave Supporting Actress (which you can bet dollars to donuts they are most likely to do) Wolf could pull in a screenplay win at the Oscars too.

In the original category, you are 5/5 matched with Oscar.  That makes it very very likely the WGA win will equal the Oscar win. It really looks to be down to two – American Hustle and Her.  Hustle has, by far, the most Best Picture heat. It has snappy dialogue and is beloved. Moreover, if Hustle wins, David O. Russell can at last collect an Oscar. His actors keep winning but thus far, he’s gone home empty handed.  I suspect that Her will give Russell some upset, however, both at the WGA and the Oscars.

You also have to watch out for Dallas Buyers Club.  That film could surprise everyone and win, as could any of them, truth be told. But knowing this race how I do — my final predictions for WGA would be:

Adapted: Wolf of Wall Street (alt Before Midnight)
Original: American Hustle (alt Her)

You can enter our contest if you like and predict for yourself.  

WGA | Oscar

WINNERS CHART

+Won Best Picture

*nominated for Best Pic

WGA | OSCAR