Best Picture – 12 Years a Slave
Best Director – Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Best Actor – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor – Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Best Supporting Actress – Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay – Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
Best Original Screenplay – American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Best Cinematography – Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Best Documentary – The Act of Killing
Best Animated Feature – Frozen
Best Music – Gravity, Steven Price
Best British Film – Gravity
Best Editing – Rush
Best Production Design – The Great Gatsby
Best Costume Design – The Great Gatsby
Best Sound – Gravity
Best Hair & Make – American Hustle
Best British Short, Live Action – Room 8
Best British Short, Animation – Sleeping with the Fishes
Outstanding British Debut – Kelly & Victor
BAFTA Rising Star – Will Poulter
Spoiler alert — we will be posting the BAFTA winners here starting at 11am, California time. But the BBC broadcast won’t be seen until two hours after the awards are all announced.
Red carpet livestream — here. (thanks Tomris)
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Yes it explains that not enough voters wanted to see it. Because all of them had a chance to see it. But they chose not to. So that’s a really fantastic sign of support, right? “Dallas Buyers Club? meh. McConaughey? meh. No thanks. Let’s watch Behind the Candelabra instead.”
That’s how voting works, Hera. That’s how Emmanuelle Riva wins the BAFTA and loses the Oscar. It’s voter behavior, it’s individual voter personality and personal preference.
You can dream about how you would retrain the BAFTA to watch all the movies you want them to watch io but it’s only a dream, it’s all in your imagination.
It’s pointless to say “If Only More Academy Member Had Wanted to Watch AMOUR!…” because here’s the plain simple fact: If a voter can’t find the motivation to watch a movie then chances are it’s because they’re not interested in it.
So you can speculate all you want about how we could strap BAFTA voters to their chairs and prop their eyelids open with tongs and force them to watch Dallas Buyers Club, but I guarantee you if they’re not predisposed to make the very basic effort of putting a DVD in a slot and sitting still for 2 hours, then they’re already proving that they don’t give a shit about that movie.
The BAFTA members very often have different taste than American voters. And the BAFTA’s taste is very often better. I know that’s hard for you to swallow.
What’s any of that got to do with anything? If not enough people saw the film for whatever reason that could explain why Matt and Jared weren’t nominated. Their situation would be the same as what we were told happened with MDB. Not enough people saw the film thus a film underperforms in terms of nominations.
the same reason Million Dollar Baby missed out on major BAFTA noms.
Warner Brothers sent no screeners to the UK for Million Dollar Baby in 2005. So no, it’s not the same situation at all. Several BAFTA members have come forward to confirm that they all got screeners for Dallas Buyers Club.
You can’t force somebody to watch a movie that they don’t want to watch. You can’t force a UK voter to love a movie they’ve seen just because it won an American Critics Choice Award.
Why can’t you just accept the fact that voters in various groups vote differently — and they all vote for what they like?
Sean Penn lost the BAFTA twice the same two years he won the Oscar twice. Do you believe BAFTA voters never got around to watching Mystic River and Milk? Isn’t it more likely that they saw those movies and perhaps Sean Penn’s style of acting simply didn’t impress enough voters? Maybe Sean Penn rubs them the wrong way. Maybe McConaughey does too.
BAFTA voters have gone their own way and made their own independent choices dozens and dozens of times.
Are you going to explain away all the mismatches between America and the UK with bullshit excuses like “they coddle their hometown boys in the UK” or “probably all their screeners got lost in the mail”?
Do you think BAFTA members don’t have an internet connection so they never heard of Dallas Buyers Club and that’s why they had no idea it was worth watching?
hey, maybe all the Dallas Buyers Club screener DVDs smelled like bacon and all the dogs of all the BAFTA members ate them.
Or maybe Matt wasn’t nominated for the same reason Million Dollar Baby missed out on major BAFTA noms. That not enough people saw the film. At least that’s what people said back in 2005 when MDB missed out on major noms. I don’t know why Matt wasn’t nominated at BAFTA. Given your attitude I’m not going to concede anything to you. Though I have no problem if you disagree with me.
McConaughey didn’t even have to votes to get nominated so it’s absurd to think he would magically have the votes to win.
Why can’t you concede the fact that the BAFTA voters are not “Obligated” to vote for McConaughey and can’t be “Guilted” into voting for McConaughey? — Because face the facts, Hera, ALL the members of the BAFTA had a perfect opportunity to nominate McConaughey and Leto but They Chose Not To.
@Claudiu
That EW report is just anecdotal evidence not exactly a scientific survey. Like the predictions of 12 Yrs sweeping BAFTA. What it tells me is that Academy members know that they are supposed to vote for 12 YRS thus the reason those interviewed think 12 YRs is going to win BP. Even though the majority of those interviewed say they and the people they know are voting for Gravity with the alternative being AH and sometimes even Her. Very few of those the writer interviewed admit to voting for 12 YRs A Slave.
I never mention DBCs eligibility for BAFTA only that Matt and Jared weren’t nominated and other contenders benefitted from their not being in the running.I don’t know why Matt and Jared weren’t nominated for BAFTA. Maybe the film screened too late and not enough people saw the film so they weren’t nominated. I think that is what I heard happened when Million Dollar Baby missed major BAFTA noms. Matt managed to defeat Ejiofor at GG, SAG and CC. I see no reason why he wouldn’t have defeated him at BAFTA as well had he been nominated. Prior to his BAFTA win Ejiofor won mostly minor critics awards. IMO, he won at BAFTA because he was a hometown favorite and Matt was not in the running. Feel free to disagree.
Hera, here’s the thing. Dallas Buyers Club was eligible. BAFTA eligibility is not contingent on a movie’s theatrical release date in the UK. As long as there are screenings for BAFTA members and as long as studios send out screeners in time, then every BAFTA member is able to see that movie — and therefore it’s eligible.
So here’s the other stumble in your logic, Hera. You’re telling us Leto and McConaughey both would have won. But in fact neither of them could build enough support even to be nominated.
So how are either of those actors going to win if BAFTA members weren’t even impressed enough to nominate them?
Here’s what you want us to believe: The only reasons you see for Ejiofor win is because he’s a “hometown” boy (because, wow, the British are really that jingoistic?) and because McConaughey wasn’t there to whip Ejiofor’s butt (in a manner of speaking).
As far as you’re concerned, McConaughey — who couldn’t even get a BAFTA nomination — was supposed to be the winner at BAFTA.
You’re telling us that Leto’s and McConaughey’s only missing step was getting nominated! A missed step that both of them failed miserably to accomplish.
“I am so sick and tired listening to this whole notion of 12 Years needing to be perfect and winning everything so it can be considered “loved” by the film industry. Gravity obviously has the
advantage of more guilds support, but it keeps losing best picture to 12 Years and it tied with 12 Years at PGA, so if it was so loved, why didn’t it trump 12 years at BAFTA and every major
award for best picture?”
Well said, ObamaWins!
“It didn’t win VFX like no one expected it to, but it also didn’t win SAG or DGA like some did”
Nor did Gravity win the PGA alone, ACE, Globe, BAFTA etc., like quite a few people expected – certainly no fewer than the ones that thought 12 Years would sweep the guilds.
“If Gravity pulls a best picture win in 2 weeks, they will say it deserves it, it 12 Years wins, they will say its politics and race”
Sadly, you might be right about this too, and it’s incredibly unfair to the amazing movie that 12 Years a Slave is that haters have such an easy excuse to hate on it…
“It won PGA in a tie with Gravity. Lost ACE to Captain Phillips, Lost ASC to Gravity. Lost ADG to Gatsby, Lost SAG to AH, Lost DGA to Gravity.”
Yeah, except for the DGA, those are all either completely meaningless as BP precursors (ASC, ADG) or awards Gravity also lost (ACE) or wasn’t EVEN NOMINATED for (SAG Ensemble, which also happens to represent the largest branch). Just like ObamaWins said…
“Not everything is about race even though some on this site think everythings come down to race.”
I see… so only BP is about race/guilt, not the other awards…
“I believe Chiwetel would have lost as he has always lost had Matt been a nominee.”
Dude, ANYBODY would have lost going up against McConaughey this year. His story is just perfect and the part right up the Academy’s alley. Gender aside: Hathaway, Blanchett, Day-Lewis… all would have been crushed. Maybe Ledger would have stood a chance… 🙂
“Saving Private Ryan lost to the film that won SAG ensemble as well as the film with the most nominations. I believe Shakespeare in Love had 13 nominations vs 10 for Saving Private Ryan. That would suggest that AH is in a stronger position to win BP over Gravity then 12 Yrs.”
Yeah, and a PGA winner instead is just neglectable, right?!
“Hera thinks any award won by 12 Years a Slave must have been given grudgingly out of “obligation” but whenever it doesn’t win an award that same sense of “obligation” just evaporates and nobody feels obligated to do nuthin.”
:)) Ryan to the rescue! I wish I’d spotted that one myself…
“What’s Lupita doing wrong, Hera? Please tell us what she needs to do make voters feel guiltier.”
🙂
“It’s Sasha who claims DGA is the strong predictor of BP and BD. Most DGA winners go on to win BD and BD and BP usually to together.”
It is – as long as the other stats confirm that movie’s frontrunner status. On its own it’s simply a ‘not quite good enough’ stat for BP standards. And, this year, apart from Cuaron’s wins, which might not mean much more than that he’s the favorite to win BD, nothing else confirms that Gravity is in any way more of a favorite than 12 Years a Slave. No tech sweeps (which it hasn’t been getting anyway, always losing this or that award it was expected to get) can change that.
“There is some interesting analysis about the BAFTAs at EW and what they show about this seasons BP race. Though this is just anecdotal evidence. The writer reports that while most Academy members he spoke to are voting for Gravity, AH, Nebraska or even Her. Most of the people this writer spoke to expect 12 Yrs to win BP.12 Yrs sounds like a film that is liked but not loved.
Here’s he excerpt.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah… read that one already. Just like people were saying 12 Years was going to sweep the BAFTAs – also based on insider info… Did that happen?
“No matter who wins, there’s going to be a some big prevailing trends that are broken.”
Not really, in 12 Years a Slave’s case. What trends would those be?
“Here’s a little factoid. No Best British Film ever won Best Director until now.”
And here’s another – no Best British Film winner that lost Best Film at the BAFTA ever won the Oscar for Best Picture. EVER. Plenty were nominated, like Gravity is this year, so there are (many) actual precedents to this one. Yours is just saying: this has never happened before. So what? Like we didn’t already know Gravity was stronger than the average Best British Film winner…
“Well, as you may have noticed I’m just saying OBVIOUS things. But if you don’t get them, that’s OK with me. Not all people see ‘the obvious’.”
Especially when the ‘obvious’ is obviously wrong…
@Kane: And do you think that “Brokeback Mountain” had Academy’s support when it lost best picture to “Crash”? IMO it had NOT. Despite the fact that it won best director, adapted screenplay and best score. So IMO it might be said also that “12 Years a Slave” has no industry support (maybe except some votes from producers – it tied at PGA – and screenwriters – because it would probably win WGA if it was eligible [I assume but it may have lost!]). But that’s true that it lost ACE, ASC, ADG, DGA and SAG. No one LOVES “12YaS”. They may have respect for this movie – but you don’t win Oscars for ‘respect’.
@Jason Travis: Well, as you may have noticed I’m just saying OBVIOUS things. But if you don’t get them, that’s OK with me. Not all people see ‘the obvious’.
Here’s a little factoid. No Best British Film ever won Best Director until now.
Hera, 12 Years a Slave MOST CERTAINLY has industry support. Just because it didn’t win means it doesn’t have industry support? So every year the movie that wins all the awards is THE ONLY ONE that gets the support? It got nominations, it got raves. It has the support. You can spew out stats all you want but when you make statements like, “It doesn’t have industry support” well then I dare you to go to every critic who wrote a race review (about 90some percent), every awards body who even nominated it and every actor/actress/industry veteran and say, “12 Years doesn’t have industry support.” You will be laughed out of whatever hole you dug yourself into and fall into another hole. How can it compete against movies like Gravity for best VFX, sound editing, sound mixing? It can’t. But that doesn’t mean it lacks support.
@Ryan
I explained why I thought Abdi won he benefitted from Leto not being in the race. While Ejiofor had home court advantage.I don’t know that Fassbender has been a contender anywhere while Ejiofor did win a few critics awards. There is some interesting analysis about the BAFTAs at EW and what they show about this seasons BP race. Though this is just anecdotal evidence. The writer reports that while most Academy members he spoke to are voting for Gravity, AH, Nebraska or even Her. Most of the people this writer spoke to expect 12 Yrs to win BP.12 Yrs sounds like a film that is liked but not loved. Here’s he excerpt.
“When I talked to Academy voters this week, I found many who assumed 12 Years a Slave would win, even though they and others they knew were voting for Gravity. I only occasionally hit a 12 Years voter — which surprised me. The rest were leading mainly with American Hustle, and in some cases Nebraska, or Her. (I’m still not picking up many enthusiasts for The Wolf of Wall Street, but this isn’t a scientific way to survey.) For those who weren’t choosing either as their favorite, Gravity tended to rank higher than 12 Years in the lower tiers.
All this gives me a stomachache. My gut tells me 12 Years will win — it is emotionally powerful, and focuses on a meaningful chapter of history in an uncompromising way, renewing interest in an American hero who had been lost for ages to everyone except academics. But what I’m hearing from anecdotal samples of voters — and picking the brains of strategists who do the same — suggests that the Academy has deep respect for 12 Years, but they love Gravity.
What we see from BAFTA is that, given the option, voters will pick both.
Only a few hundred BAFTA voters cross over with the Academy, so we shouldn’t overstate their influence. Last year, when Amour‘s Emmanuelle Riva won Best Actress, there was a panic among Oscar journalists, and many began shifting their picks away from the previous favorite, Silver Linings Playbook‘s Jennifer Lawrence. Remember how that turned out?”
@Hera. Gravity has not writing nod, no WGA nod, it has no mulit actin nod, therefore, it is not Shakespeare in Love.
There’s not much value in equating this awards season with past years. No matter who wins, there’s going to be a some big prevailing trends that are broken.
Again, this is primarily due to Gravity’s strength and 12YAS’s subject matter. Usually you can write off a special effects extravaganza mainstream movie’s chances for Best Picture almost immediately. Except this year the critics LOVED Gravity as much as the typical Oscar-type frontrunner(12YAS). This has given Gravity more weight than expected and made it a much stronger-than-usual alternative choice.
On the other side, 12YAS is a weaker frontrunner than usual because of the very dark subject matter and graphic scenes. It’s a powerful and depressing movie, but a movie I don’t think most people would want to watch more than once. That’s a problem for someone who thinks Best Picture is the movie that entertains him/her the most.
It’s definitely the most exciting Best Picture race in a long time, but the smart money/majority pundits/consensus is still 12YAS for good reason. It’s just the type of movie the Academy goes for, heavy duty historical nonfiction emotional epic. Don’t think the Academy is young/daring enough to reward Gravity this year, maybe in 5-10 years a film like Gravity would be the favorite.
Hey that’s cute. So Chiwetel won because he’s a “hometown favorite.” How do you explain Barkhad Abdi beating “hometown favorite” Michael Fassbender? Michael’s a Londoner. Did he lose all his hometown clout because he’s half-German?
I don’t think it’s about race, Hera, but I think you do. Just 12 hours ago you wrote, “It’s almost as if people are being guilted into voting for 12 Years.”
If you’re not talking about race, then why don’t you explain to us what you believe people are supposedly feeling guilty about? You’re the one talking about guilt. What’s this presumed guilt about, Hera?
Saving Private Ryan lost to the film that won SAG ensemble as well as the film with the most nominations. I believe Shakespeare in Love had 13 nominations vs 10 for Saving Private Ryan. That would suggest that AH is in a stronger position to win BP over Gravity then 12 Yrs.
It’s Sasha who claims DGA is the strong predictor of BP and BD. Most DGA winners go on to win BD and BD and BP usually to together.
@Hera. Saving Private Ryan won DGA, PGA, ACE and sound guilds, and no, Gravity is no Shakespeare in Love. Gravity doesn’t have a screenplay nod, and it doesn’t have a WGA nod.
“Million Dollar Baby won DGA. That made the film at least a co-favorite for BP and BD. It was also the favorite for BA”
No, it wasn’t, not based on your foolish theory about “industry support”. Yes, it has DGA, and so did Ang Lee for Crouching Tiger.
@Ryan
I believe Chiwetel would have lost as he has always lost had Matt been a nominee. I believe he was helped by being a home town favorite at BAFTA.I think Lupita is at best a co-favorite in her category and not the strong frontrunner some pretend she is. I think Abdi benefitted from Leto not being a nominee and that Abdi’s win showed the weakness of Fassbender who could not win even with Leto out of the running. Not everything is about race even though some on this site think everythings come down to race.
Hera thinks any award won by 12 Years a Slave must have been given grudgingly out of “obligation” but whenever it doesn’t win an award that same sense of “obligation” just evaporates and nobody feels obligated to do nuthin.
It’s the same sick logic that whines about how nobody wants to hear about race being a factor in awards choices but then whenever a black person happens to win something then it must be because voters feel guilty.
So Hera would have us believe voters only chose 12 Years and Chiwetel Ejiofor because they were guilted into it — and yet those same guilt-ridden voters were able to overcome their guilt and withhold awards from Lupita Nyong’o and Steve McQueen.
What’s Lupita doing wrong, Hera? Please tell us what she needs to do make voters feel guiltier. What ploy was Chiwetel using these past few weeks to successfully make voters feel racked with guilt? Do you think Lupita needs to take guilt-inflicting lessons from Barkhad Abdi, Hera?
Do you not see how mentally disturbed you begin to sound, Hera?
Million Dollar Baby won DGA. That made the film at least a co-favorite for BP and BD. It was also the favorite for BA
@Hera
So Gravity didn’t lose ACE to ACE? Gravity also lost SAG, wasn’t even nominated. Gravity also didn’t get a WGA nod, even Avatar and Titanic managed to get one.
12 Years has no industry support? Yes, it does. PGA, you fool.
“Lost ACE to Captain Phillips, Lost ASC to Gravity. Lost ADG to Gatsby, Lost SAG to AH, Lost DGA to Gravity. 12 Yrs has almost NO industry support yet somehow it keeps winning BP.”
Million Dollar Baby also lost all those guilds. There you go.
This whole notion of 12 Years has very little industry support is such a nonsense. It might not have won the sound guild, or ASC, or ACE(Gravity didn’t even win ACE) or visual effect guild, but it won a big one, didn’t it? PGA. One of Gravity fans’ tactics is to use this PGA/DGA combo of Gravity and just sort to try to make people forget that 12 Years is also a PGA winner. That’s is lame and foolish. The fact is Gravity tied with 12 years and could not be the only winner, that is a fact that many Gravity fans do not want to see or try to pretend it doesn’t exist.
Hera you’re just wrong, end of story.
“If Gravity pulls a best picture win in 2 weeks, they will say it deserves it, it 12 Years wins, they will say its politics and race, and those are the ones who are mostly Gravity fans.” -Obamawins
Exactly. You’ve decided that nobody “likes” 12 Years, and you can interpret any scenario to prove that you are right. Oh, 12 Years a Slave got 9 nominations and won the PGA, the Globes, the BAFTA, most critics’ awards, has 3 acting nominations? Eh, they just feel obligated, it’s not actually that good a movie. <– Apply that logic to any other movie and you'll see how absurd it is.
@Obamawins
It won PGA in a tie with Gravity. Lost ACE to Captain Phillips, Lost ASC to Gravity. Lost ADG to Gatsby, Lost SAG to AH, Lost DGA to Gravity. 12 Yrs has almost NO industry support yet somehow it keeps winning BP.
Gravity fans are just so awful, not all, but most.
@Hera
12 Years has very little industry support, it won the big one, PGA, remember? Are you delusional or you are thatpj from IMDB?
@Hera
12 Yrs A Slave looked very weak at BAFTA by winning the biggest award?
Failed logic. So its BAFTA best pictuer win means nothing?LOL.
Ejiofor would have lost? Would have, could have.
No industry support? PGA supported it.
BAFTA has only 500 Oscar voters.
You are just another typical Gravity fan.
Dude, 12 Years’ winning PGA is a big deal, you made it sound like it didn’t win. Get real, give it up and quit trolling already.
@ObamaWins
12 Yrs A Slave looked very weak at BAFTA. Everyone knows Ejiofor would have lost again had Matt been in the race. So the film would have won BP again with no other awards.I’m not the only one saying it makes no sense that the film keeps winning BP with almost NO industry support. There’s a new thread today at another awards site asking if 12 Yrs could go 0-9 Oscar night given the very weak showing at BAFTA.
If Gravity pulls a best picture win in 2 weeks, they will say it deserves it, it 12 Years wins, they will say its politics and race, and those are the ones who are mostly Gravity fans. I find it interesting that a good amount of Gravity fans are highly biased and kind of racist, sorry, that’s how i feel.
Yeah, and Gravity fans like Hera keeps saying it lost every guild award and act like 12 Years PGA win doesn’t matter. What facts? Yes, 12 Years didn’t win ADG, or VEX and MPSE, and that doesn’t mean it is going to lose best picture. I am just tired of listening to this horseshit about 12 Years winning best picture is due to “white guilt” or “obligation”. Let’s face it, this country can not face any success that is related to blacks, at least half of the country. Then those asses will tell me stop playing the race card, and yet, they keep focusing on the race and conclude that is the reason why 12 Years keeps wining best picture award. That’s racist, if you don’t believe that, you are delusional, sorry.
@ObamaWins
People are just stating facts, so stop being annoying. It didn’t win VFX like no one expected it to, but it also didn’t win SAG or DGA like some did. Happy?
Gravity keeps winning the guilds because it’s got the advantage of being a sci fi one woman show, it is a special effects driven movie.
So Hera, you are wrong and stop saying 12 Years best picture wins are a result of “white guilt”, that’s racist.
“Other then a tie at PGA 12 Yrs has lost at every guild.”
You are a Gravity fanboy, i bet.
Yeah, like what the tech guilds? So if that was true, then Million Dollar Baby also wasn’t loved because it wasn’t even nominated for best visual effects, sound, sound editing. Your argument is stupid and tiring, I am so sick and tired listening to this whole notion of 12 Years needing to be perfect and winning everything so it can be considered “loved” by the film industry. Gravity obviously has the advantage of more guilds support, but it keeps losing best picture to 12 Years and it tied with 12 Years at PGA, so if it was so loved, why didn’t it trump 12 years at BAFTA and every major award for best picture? To say it won because of race or obligation is offensive and racist, and you are one of the racists.
@Hera. It has very little industry support? It won the PGA. Gravity simply isn’t strong enough to come on top of 12 years at PGA. What are you talking about? People feel obligated to vote for it?? Here comes another racist attitude. So you are saying half of the PGA members felt obligated to vote for 12 Years? You are just so full of crap. Very little industry support? What? You expected it to win best sound, best visual effects? You are just another Gravity fan?
“Thanks for the in-depth answer. You’re awesome”
You’re welcome! And no, not really… just very interested in the subject and also willing to do some research. 🙂
@ Claudiu
Thanks for the in-depth answer. You’re awesome 🙂
12 Yrs problem is that its painfully obvious the film isn’t “loved” and has very little industry support. Other then a tie at PGA 12 Yrs has lost at every guild. So it appears people feel obligated to vote for it at awards shows for BP. That’s something you could not say about “The Hurt Locker” which was directed by a woman but also had strong industry support. If not for the preferential ballot at AMPAS 12 Yrs would likely be a shoo-in for BP with almost no industry support. How odd will it look if the film loses in every category at the Oscars except BP? When was the last time that happened? I’m guessing in the 1930s.
Aragorn, you just don’t get it.
You shouldn’t take what goes on on this site to be any indication for what’s going on within the various bodies handing out awards. This is an important site but, after all, it’s just ONE point of view that race is a major factor in this race and how people should be voting. I’ve not seen this idea of Sasha’s replicated anywhere else – though I haven’t looked particularly hard, I’ll admit it.
Some idiot up says that anyone who says 12 Years is winning or losing is racist!!!
Have you ever been to this site this season????? Both best picture and best director races have been “made” about “race” in this site by one piece after another. So do not blame the commentors who refer to race when it comes to 12 Years. Take it to someone else!!!! And stop calling people racist! That’s a serious accusation..
8 movies have won BFCA+Globe+BAFTA+PGA (since all 4 have coexisted – irrespective of when the BAFTA was held): American Beauty, Gladiator, The Return of the King, Brokeback Mountain, Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist, Argo and now 12 Years a Slave. Of the 7 so far, only one (Brokeback Mountain) lost BP, to the SAG winner. Of course, the only ones involved in any kind of a race were Gladiator, BBM and Argo, which is the situation this year. That’s 2/3 winning BP, and 1/3 times BP going to the SAG winner. Not a particularly relevant sample size, but interesting nonetheless…
I think Gravity might be the first movie to have won only the DGA+PGA, but not the Globe, BAFTA or BFCA – this I have not checked, as I’m pretty sure.
Crash and Million Dollar Baby are the only movies to have won neither the BFCA, Globe or BAFTA (again, since they’ve all coexisted) to win BP. Million Dollar Baby is Gravity’s best precedent (though, again, the situation is rather different, as that one had WGA, screenplay and SAG Ensemble nominations), whereas Crash is American Hustle’s best precedent (but also a different situation, as Brokeback Mountain – and this also happens to be a very good statistical explanation for the 1 exception out of 7 for the stat mentioned above – had no editing nomination, whereas 12 Years a Slave has all of the required nominations).
“Is BFCA+GG+PGA+BAFTA = to a DGA+PGA win? What films have won these awards and lost best picture at the oscars?”
Good question. I’ll research it and get back to you. Brokeback Mountain is one that comes to mind for both (there’s definitely 1-2 more for the DGA+PGA thing).
“It’s kinda hard for me to picture too, but I guess that’s my NGNG. AH goes Traffic, 12YAS goes Gladiator, Gravity goes CTHD. Wouldn’t that rock the boat?”
It would indeed – and, as long as 12 Years gets BP, I’ll be content, although it would kind of suck for Russell to get BD, because any of the other 4 are far more deserving, IMO.
Brokeback Mountain 🙂
Is BFCA+GG+PGA+BAFTA = to a DGA+PGA win? What films have won these awards and lost best picture at the oscars?
“True, true. I’m definitely not saying it can’t happen. But I can’t picture it, to be honest – Russell winning BD without AH winning BP.”
It’s kinda hard for me to picture too, but I guess that’s my NGNG. AH goes Traffic, 12YAS goes Gladiator, Gravity goes CTHD. Wouldn’t that rock the boat?
Justin V.
AMEN!
T.
“It’s a long shot for sure, but in a split year it’s always easier for a “third party” to score some unpredictable wins.”
True, true. I’m definitely not saying it can’t happen. But I can’t picture it, to be honest – Russell winning BD without AH winning BP.
“One must not forget this is still a three horse race and the precursors tank is empty.”
Which is pretty remarkable… And yes, definitely kind of nice, though, again, I’d much rather this had happened in another year, and not when my favorite movie of the year is also the frontrunner. 🙂
“So IMHO, both Gravity and 12YAS are out when it comes to editing.”
It does seem that way, but it’s not entirely clear yet.
Editing is, indeed, quite hard to predict at this point. But I don’t think it’s that crucial – it’s logical that there haven’t been that many BP/BD/Editing splits, since there haven’t been that many BP/BD splits to begin with. And this year, as already stated, is quite unusual in its precursor distribution, so it’s hard to compare it to too many other years before it. I don’t think another exception this year is so statistically improbable. It’s a point to consider, though, when predicting the split. Thanks for pointing it out!
doesn’t have as MANY precursors
“Very interesting parallel. However, as far as Russell winning BD… I don’t see enough evidence to support that. Soderbergh had won a ton of critics’ BD awards that year, albeit many of them specifically for Erin Brockovich, not Traffic. Russell has won, what, one?! (Capri something…)”
True, David O. doesn’t have as much precursors as Soderbergh did, but he has a BP Globe (comedy, but still), SAG Ensemble (same as “Traffic”) and a Screenplay and supp. actress win at the BAFTAS (very similar to “Traffic’s” score). You add that up + the 4 acting noms + the 3rd directing nod in a row and you have a pretty good case for David O. winning. It’s a long shot for sure, but in a split year it’s always easier for a “third party” to score some unpredictable wins.
One must not forget this is still a three horse race and the precursors tank is empty. It’s kinda nice that we still don’t know anything. Acting categories and most techs might be locked, but the important ones are still wide open. Editing is the key award IMO. I don’t know if there ever was a three way split between Pictire, Director and Editing (found it, 1981), but it’s a rarity. So if “Hustle” wins editing, it’s very unlikely for 12YAS and Gravity to split BP/BD. It’s either both awards for one of them, or “AH” get’s a piece of that action.
This might of course happen only if “AH” wins editing. Captain Phillips is a strong contender, but so was “Gangs of New York” with an Eddie win (drama) and heading strong into the race with 10 noms and a Globe win for Marty. Ended up with bubkis. Like I said earlier, the Academy are suckers for paralel editing and non-linear storytelling (no other way to explain TGWTDT win two years ago). The more you skew the timeline the better and in that respect “AH” has the upper hand. On the other hand “AH” is a bit chaotic, also when it comes to editing. There is this kind of sloppiness, that might be actually considered an artistic value. It goes in par with the whole improv feel of the picture and has this “playing it by ear” quality that might appeal to the Academy. Captain Phillips is in fact the most dense of them all, very effective and emotional, perfectly balanced in all of it’s chaotic look. The way it’s leading up to the climax is simply masterful. They might go for that. The only thing the Academy are not fans of is minimalism. Sure, they can nominate movies with long takes and a very ascetic approach to cutting, but they’re not keen on awarding them. So IMHO, both Gravity and 12YAS are out when it comes to editing. Time will tell.