The Gurus of Gold and Gold Derby have put out their predictions. No one is predicting American Hustle to win in Best Picture, which is really the only logical split vote scenario, being that the SAG ensemble win would be in play, as it’s been every time since the beginning of SAG. They are divided between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.

More surprising, to me, is how many pundits are predicting 20 Feet from Stardom to beat The Act of Killing. If so, they would lose all credibility to hand out awards in the documentary category. If so, I really hope they go back to the rule that voters have to see all five films to make a fair judgment call because that movie deserves to win if ever a movie did deserve to win any prize. I remain horrified in advance at this potential debacle to play out.

At any rate, let’s look at our charts of the major guilds – Producers, Screen Actors, Directors and Eddie when it comes to Best Picture and a split vote. This can only apply in modern day because to look at the years that employed the preferential ballot is to go back to the 1930s. And no one wants to go back to the 1930s.

A few minor things to note.

The Gurus and Derbyites are mostly predicting a split wherein Best Picture wins three Oscars only. Picture, Screenplay and Supporting Actress.

First we’ll look at films that won only three Oscars in SPLIT VOTE, what they won. There are a few that won only 3 that won both Picture and Director (Rocky, Midnight Cowboy, etc).

Argo (Picture, Editing, Screenplay) — SAG ensemble against Life of Pi (won 4 Oscars)
Crash (Picture, Editing, Screenplay) —SAG ensemble against Brokeback (won 3 Oscars)
The Godfather (Picture, Actor, Screenplay) against Cabaret (won 8 Oscars!)
All the King’s Men (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress) against Letters to Three Wives (won 2 Oscars)
The Life of Emile Zola (Picture, Actor, Screenplay) against The Awful Truth (won 1 Oscar)
The Great Ziegfeld (Picture, Actress, Dance Direction) against Mr. Deeds Goes to Town (won 1 Oscar)
Cimarron (Picture, Art Direction, Screenplay) against Skippy (won 1 Oscar)

The only pattern that emerges here tends to be that the SAG ensemble does some kind of crazy mojo. Also, the Ace Eddie was won in both the cases of Argo and Crash. So why more people aren’t predicting American Hustle seems strange to me. Perhaps they’re thinking it would be possible with a weighted ballot to pull a surprise majority like that but with a preferential ballot, near impossible.

How many times has the DGA called Best Picture? 52 out of 65 years (I’m fairly sure but someone might want to double check that).

Here are the years it did not call Best Picture:
2005 – Ang Lee won DGA/Oscar for Brokeback Mountain — Crash won Best Picture
2000 – Ang Lee won DGA for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — Gladiator won BP (Soderbergh took director)
1989 – Oliver Stone won DGA/Oscar for Born on the Fourth of July — Driving Miss Daisy won BP (Beresford not nonmed for DGA or Oscar)
1985 – Steven Spielberg won DGA for The Color Purple — Out of Africa won Pic and Director (Spielberg not nominated for Oscar)
1981 – Warren Beatty won DGA/Oscar for Reds — Chariots of Fire won Picture
1968 – Anthony Harvey won DGA for Lion in Winter — Oliver won Pic and Director
1967 – Mike Nichols won DGA/Oscar for The Graduate — In the Heat of the Night won Pic
1956 – George Stevens won DGA/Oscar for Giant —Around the World in 80 Days won Pic
1952 – John Ford won DGA/Oscar for The Quiet Man — The Greatest Show on Earth won Pic
1951 – George Stevens won DGA/Oscar for A Place in the Sun — An American in Paris won Pic

There are a variety of possibilities here, as you can see. The most common scenario is that the DGA does not call Best Picture in  a split vote scenario, as we are predicting here.  In rare instances, the DGA does not call either Picture or Director. That happened, in all of DGA history, only three times and one of those times Spielberg was not nominated for the Oscar.  Anthony Harvey was nominated but was passed over, ditto Ang Lee.

Twice they went with a matching director to go along with Picture instead (Oliver, Out of Africa) and once, that crazy year in 2000 when director went to someone else entirely, Soderbergh.

Looking at that list of splits, one must assume that the most likely scenario is Cuaron and 12 Years, or American Hustle, for the split.

However, if you’re looking to bolster the theory that it won’t split, and that the DGA will simply call Best Picture and be done with it, you only really have to focus on the years in guild history where they were divided among their choices.

1. No two films have ever tied the Producers Guild, with or without a preferential ballot.
2. It’s very rare for the PGA, the DGA and the SAG to pick three different movies.

Those two factoids alone narrow our choices significantly.  We are mainly looking at:

2004 – PGA went to The Aviator, SAG went to Sideways, DGA went to Eastwood – DGA wins (Gravity)
2000 – PGA went to Gladiator, SAG went to Traffic, DGA went to Crouching Tiger — PGA wins (12 Years)

Now, let’s count Gravity for a PGA + DGA only, no SAG, no Eddie and here’s what we come up with:

2011 – PGA/DGA went to The Artist — DGA/PGA win – no split (Gravity)
2009 – PGA/DGA went to Hurt Locker — DGA/PGA win – no split (Gravity)
2005 – PGA/DGA went to Brokeback Mountain – pic did not win – SAG wins – split (American Hustle)
1998 – PGA/DGA went to Saving Private Ryan – pic did not win – SAG wins – split (American Hustle)
1997 – PGA/DGA went to Titanic – DGA/PGA win – no split (Gravity)

How many times has a film won just the SAG ensemble plus the Eddie and won Best Picture?
Once, Crash did that.   (American Hustle)

How many times has a film won ONLY the PGA and won Best Picture?
Once, Gladiator (12 Years a Slave)

How many times has a film won Best Picture without a SAG ensemble nod?
Once, Braveheart (Gravity)

So you’re looking at, when you get right down to it, those sorts of odds vis-a-vis the guilds.   You have three scenarios for Best Picture, none of which make complete sense.   Although it seems most likely that the DGA will call Best Picture and Best Director as it ALMOST ALWAYS DOES, Gravity still has to overcome the following to win — here are the records it has to shatter:

1. No SAG nod, no Screenplay nod. How many times those two things happened together? ZERO (12 Years+Hustle have both)
2. 3D – no 3D film has ever won Best Picture
3. Set in space. No film set in space has ever won.
4. No film with only two actors has ever won.
5. Effects driven only – 90% of Gravity is visual effects. For that to win BP is unheard of.  

No matter how you slice it, there is NO scenario for Best Picture that makes complete sense. History is going to be made one way or the other.

The Charts

2012 PGA | SAG | DGA | Eddie | Oscar Best Picture

2012 PGA | SAG | DGA | Eddie | Oscar Best Picture

2011 PGA | SAG | DGA | Eddie | Oscar Best Picture

2010

PGA | SAG | DGA | Eddie | Oscar Best Picture

2009

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

2008

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

2007

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

2007

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

<td “width=”131″ bgcolor=”#FFFFFF”>No Country

2006
PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

2005

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

2004

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

2003

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

2002

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

2001

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

2000

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

1999

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

1998

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

1997

PGA | SAG | DGA | ACE | Oscar Best Picture

1996

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

1995

PGA | SAG | DGA | Oscar Best Picture

1994

PGA | DGA | ACE Oscar Best Picture

EXACT MATCH

1993

PGA | DGA | Eddie | Oscar Best Picture

1992

PGA | DGA | Eddie | Oscar Best Picture