In just one month Telluride will happen and by then we’ll have a decent enough picture of the Oscar race for Best Picture. The New York Film festival will deliver three heavy hitters, namely David Fincher’s Gone Girl, but also Inarritu’s Birdman and Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice. It’s a good time to take stock in what we know so far heading into, what we here at awards daily like to call, the ovulation phase – that is, the most fertile time for Oscar implantation to take place. Fertility and the Oscar race has a window of opportunity — the egg must be fertilized by the time that window of opportunity ends. In Oscar season of late, for the last ten years or so, the doors close for a Best Picture winner after October. Things might change, of course. One never knows what could happen but that’s how it’s been since the last late comer, Million Dollar Baby, won.
Here is what I know so far, and have already stated for the record.
The strongest Best Picture contender is Richard Linklater’s 12 year opus, Boyhood. Linklater has the built up clout, and the film is universally loved, for this film to be the most serious contender so far. With 47 reviews and a total score of 100 at Metacritic, Boyhood is a record breaker already. Nominations expected across the board for Picture, Director, Screenplay, Best Supporting Actress (or lead) for Patricia Arquette, a possible nod for Ellar Coltrane in lead actor, editing.
Out of Cannes, and next in line is Bennett Miller’s exquisite meditation on wealth and privilege – Foxcatcher. A cool remove from humanity and a spot-on performance by Steve Carell, not to mention Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher seems poised for several nominations, including Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo. Anne Thompson always says you build an Oscar contender branch by branch and that is exactly how they will build up Foxcatcher. Possibly cinematography, possibly editing.
Also out of Cannes, Mike Leigh’s Mr. Turner, the only film festival goers could agree upon. Leigh’s film is a long, brooding meditation on Britain’s greatest painter. It will likely dominate, or come close to dominating, the BAFTAS and since the Brits now have a chokehold on the Oscars there is no reason why Mr. Turner won’t do well with voters. As of now, nominations expected for Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume, Score – and possibly director and screenplay.
Tommy Lee Jones’ complex western The Homesman that stars Hilary Swank in one of the strongest female leads the year will produce. Nominations expected, at the very least, for Swank, but possibly Best Picture, maybe screenplay and supporting actor for Jones. Time will tell on that one.
Finally, one of the darker films out of Cannes is David Cronenberg’s wonderfully bitter Maps to the Stars. This is a film that has a great shot at an original screenplay nod, at the very least, for the great Bruce Wagner, whose script will be among the year’s very best. It also has a really shot for the actors – especially the lead, Julianne Moore, who has yet to win an Oscar. AwardsDaily thinks she has a really good shot to win this year, even though it’s a dark performance. Mia Wasikowska and Evan Bird could show up in the supporting categories.
Now, Get On Up has produced the rare African American acting contender with Chadwick Boseman earning rave reviews for his portrayal as James Brown. Boseman is facing incredibly stiff competition, as always, in the lead acting category but this early out one can’t exclude him. Get On Up is also in line for costumes, art direction and sound. It has an outside shot for Best Picture — easier if there were a solid ten, harder with only five nomination slots for voters to fill in.
The big game cats are just about to show up. They could leave these contenders in the dust, or they could only make them look better by comparison. It’s a mystery that has yet to unfold.
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Saw the film two nights ago and Boseman is instantly in the lead in my Best Actor rankings. if there are somehow five performances better than Boseman’s this year, we’re in for a special Oscar season.
These Oscar nominations are all about whether the two best snubbed directors of this era – Richard Linklater and and Wes Anderson – are nominated. Then when Interstellar lands and makes gobs of money, it will presumably re-shuffle the race.
My very early, rough predictions
Best Picture
Big Eyes
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Unbroken
Wild
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
David Fincher (Gone Girl)
Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
Best Actor
Ben Affleck (Gone Girl)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
Best Actress
Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Shailene Woodley (The Fault In Our Stars)
Best Supporting Actor
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Tony Revolori (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Andy Serkis (Dawn of the Planet of the Apes) (He has to be nominated, no question)
Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)
Christoph Waltz (Big Eyes)
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Carrie Coon (Gone Girl)
Anna Kendrick (Into the Woods)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
I agree. I saw Get On Up yesterday, and it was a fantastic movie, with Boseman a sensational James Brown! I hope that he get an Oscar nomination.
Golden Globe Predictions for Next Year
Motion Picture Drama
Boyhood*
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Unbroken
Actor-Motion Picture Drama
Steve Carrell in Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything
Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner*
Chaning Tatum in Foxcatcher
Actress-Motion Picture Drama
Jessica Chastain in Miss Julie
Jennifer Lawrence in Serena
Julianne Moore in Map to the Stars
Helen Mirren in The Hundred Foot Journey
Reese Witherspoon in Wild
Motion Picture Musical/Comedy
Birdman
Get on Up
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Inherent Vice
Mr. Turner
Actor-Motion Picture Musical/Comedy
Chadwick Boseman in Get on Up*
Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood
Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel
Micheal Keaton in Birdman
Joaquin Pheonix in Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz in Big Eyes
Actress-Motion Picture Musical/Comedy
Amy Adams in Big Eyes*
Emily Blunt in Into the Woods
Krystan Ritter in Big Eyes
Soarise Ronan in The Grand Budapest Hotel
Octavia Spencer in Get on Up
Director-Motion Picture
Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Richard Linklater for Boyhood
Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan for Interstellar*
Supporting Actor
Richard Armitage in The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice
Bill Murray in St. Vincent
David Oleyeyo in Serena
Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher*
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette in Boyhood*
Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
Meryl Streep in Into the Woods
Emma Stone in Birdman
Animated Feature
Big Hero 6*
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie
The Princess Kuyaga
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat for Unbroken
Jonny Greenwood for Inherent Vice
Stephen Sondheim for Into the Woods
Hans Zimmer for Interstellar*
Screenplay
Boyhood
Foxcatcher*
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Original Song
Begin Again
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Into the Woods*
The Lego Movie
Muppets Most Wanted
Oscar Predictions for First Round
Best Picture
Birdman 6 Nominations
Boyhood* 6 Nominations
Exodus: Gods and Kings 5 Nominations
Foxcatcher 7 Nominations
The Grand Budapest Hotel 9 Nominations
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 7 Nominations
The Imitation Game 6 Nominations
Inherent Vice 4 Nominations
Interstellar 8 Nominations
Mr. Turner 5 Nominations
Best Director
Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandre Gonzalez Innaritu for Birdman
Richard Linklater for Boyhood*
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan for Interstellar
Best Actor
Chadwick Boseman in Get on Up 3 Nominations
Steve Carrell in Foxcatcher*
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Micheal Keaton in Birdman
Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
Best Actress
Amy Adams in Big Eyes* 2 Nominations
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl 2 Nominations
Michelle Williams in Suite Francaise 1 Nomination
Kate Winslet in Rosewater 1 Nomination
Reese Witherspoon in Wild 1 Nomination
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice
Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
Bill Murray in St. Vincent* 1 Nomination
Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
J.K Simmons in Whiplash 1 Nomination
`
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette in Boyhood*
Emily Blunt in Into the Woods 2 Nominations
Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year 1 Nomination
Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game
Julianne Moore in Map to the Stars 1 Nomination
Best Foreign Language Film
Leviathan from Russia 1 Nomination
Mommy from Canada 1 Nomination
Two Days One Night from Belgium* 1 Nomination
Wild Tales from Argentina 1 Nomination
The Wonders from Italy 1 Nomination
Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8 1 Nomination
The Green Prince 1 Nomination
Life Itself* 1 Nomination
Return to Home 1 Nomination
Rich Hill 1 Nomination
Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6 2 Nominations
How to Train Your Dragon 2 1 Nomination
The Lego Movie* 2 Nominations
The Princess Kaguya 1 Nomination
Song of the Sea 1 Nomination
Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood*
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Adapted Screenplay
Foxcatcher*
Gone Girl
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Costume Design
Exodus: Gods and Kings
Get on Up
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Cinematography
Dariusz Woloski for Exodus: Gods and Kings*
Hoyt Van Hoytema for Interstellar
Emmanuel Lubeski for Birdman
Dick Pope for Mr. Turner
Robert D. Yeoman for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Production Design
Big Eyes
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
The Imitation Game
Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood*
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 3 Nominations
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 Nominations
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies*
Interstellar
Noah 1 Nomination
Makeup and Hair Styling
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Guardians of the Galaxy
Original Score
Jonny Greenwood for Inherent Vice
Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat for Unbroken
Stephen Sondheim for Into the Woods
Hans Zimmer for Interstellar*
Original Song
Annie 1 Nomination
Begin Again 1 Nomination
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
The Lego Movie*
Muppets Most Wanted 1 Nomination
Sound Mixing
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Fury 1 Nomination
Get on Up
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar*
Sound Editing
Big Hero 6
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Foxcatcher
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar*
RE: Meryl Streep — oh no not again! There should be a limit to how many times an actor/actress can be nominated.
Well, I didn’t see GET ON UP yet as I saw stupid GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY today. So dumb. I hope to go during the week.
Are there usually that many contenders out of Cannes?
I clicked to Facebook like your reply! hahaha
What about Ethan Hawke for his wonderfully nuanced work in BOYHOOD?! He is just as deserving as Patricia Arquette and is worthy of a supporting actor nomination.
Just came back from Get on Up. Never saw Mr. Boseman before, but this movie will definitely make him a household name. The movie is great. The music is great and it soars with Boseman in the lead.
I’ve just read a few of the more prominent Get on up reviews and they are basically love letters to Boseman. The reviews are actually BETTER than the director’s previous film’s (The Help) so if it can get a fraction of its Box Office (I think it will do more than that, tbh I’m expecting butlernumbers here), Universal will have a pretty good case for a flashy (=expensive) Oscar campaign. I also hope Spencer and Davis will get some traction in supporting actress.
The Homesman is being distributed by a brand new, tiny distributor. I don’t know that they will be able to mount a real campaign.
Expect meryl streep to deliver possibly the best female performance of the year…
“rare African American acting contender”… really? There are usually at least two every year, with some peak years, like 2004 and 2006. For a group that is about 13% of the U.S. population (especially given all the foreign acting nominees), that’s pretty good.
In the supporting actor category there have been 17 nominations for black men. I believe only 2 of them were biographical (Cry Freedom and Captain Phillips). The 4 wins (Freeman, Gooding Jr, Washington and Gossett Jr) were all original creations. The lead actor category shows that half of the black men who won were for original characters (or rather non-biographical). Sidney Poitier won for Lillies of the Field and Denzel Washington won for Training Day. Round Midnight, Defiant Ones, Sounder, Driving Miss Daisy, Flight, Shawshank Redemption, Pursuit of Happyness and Hustle and Flow were not biographical. But it’s sad my list isn’t longer because there should be more Oscar nominated African Americans. But those that have won, biographical or not, we’re the deserving winners nonetheless.
When did Channing Tatum become an “actor”? LOL Going to See Get On up today, but I fear for Boseman’s acting future. So far, two movies and both based on celebrated Black celebs.
Which brings me to this essay question — are the ONLY movie roles that Black males can be nominated for based on real-life (and dead) celebrities? (Mandela, Robinson, Ray Charles, Solomon Northrup)
Forgot to include:
The Imitation Game – September (TIFF)
Wild – September (TIFF)
Kill the Messenger – October 10 (Wide – Official release)
Into the Woods – December 25 (Wide – Official release)
I’m feeling very optimistic for both Boyhood and Foxcatcher to get nominated for Best Picture. I’m excited to see how these next films do when they are first seen by an audience:
Gone Girl – September 26 (NYFF)
Inherent Vice – October 4 (NYFF)
Birdman – October 11 (NYFF)
Interstellar – November 7 (Wide – Official release)
Fury – November 14 (Wide – Official release)
Exodus: Gods and Kings – December 12 (Wide – Official release)
Big Eyes – December 25 (Wide – Official release)
Unbroken – December 25 (Wide – Official release)