We’re 5 weeks away from Telluride, 6 weeks away from Toronto. Less than 45 days. As more of the top hopefuls for Best Picture are unveiled, the more we’ll be inveigled to start nailing down the locks. I love this time of year. Right now anything seems possible, the well of options is deep and wide. By next month the possibilities start to narrow, the pool of possibilities will begin to drain.
In the spirit of big-tent inclusiveness, here’s a list of nearly 40 buzzed-about films. The methodology here is simple (it’s so simple I wonder why Academy members can’t do it this way): Just tick the titles of the 10 films you expect to be nominated for Best Picture. The wheat with separate from the chaff, the cream will rise to the top. Of course right now we’re just guessing. But we’ll establish a base-line with this first swing, and then run the same poll again in a couple of months when more movies have come into focus.
(I’m sure I’ve forgotten some important movies, so just let us know what’s missing and I’ll insert anything that seems reasonable. The sooner you let me know, the better chance your suggestions be in play and not get frozen out.)
If this is fun and instructive for everyone, then we’ll build polls for all the top Oscar categories.
Please Pick Ten:
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
For myself, I would like to see Kill the Messenger be acknowledged
my ten at this point
Kill the Messenger-relevant to the time we live in
Imitation Game- the Weinstein factor
Foxcatcher and Fury- Sony may divide their monies between the two with it being tipped toward Foxcatcher
Unbroken-a definite possibility
Intersteller- a “would be nice” nom
Birdman/A Most Violent Year- the long overdue factor
Gone Girl/Inherent Vice- the usual suspects
Selma- for those voters socially conscious inclined
You forgot Olivier Assayas’ Clouds of Sils Maria.
It was very well received at Cannes Festival and earned a lot of very good reviews. The movie is now screening in a lot of European Festival, and is now rumored to be at TIFF (via Playlist).
Or do you think it will be competing as Best Foreign Picture?
Add Imitation Game
Director
Wes Anderson for the grand Budapest hotel
Angelina Jolie for unbroken
Richard linklater for boyhood
Bennett miller for foxcatcher
Morton tyldum for the imitation game
Lead actor
Steve carrell in foxcatcher
Benedict cumberbatch in the imitation game
Ralph fiennes in the grand Budapest hotel
Michael Keaton in birdman
Phillip Seymour Hoffman in a most wanted man
Lead actress
Amy Adams in big eyes
Jessica chastain in a most violent year
Jennifer Lawrence in Serena
Julianne Moore in map to the stars
Reese Witherspoon in wild
Supporting actor
Richard armitage in the hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Josh brolin in inherent vice
Garrett hedlund in unbroken
Mark ruffalo in foxcatcher
Changing Tatum in foxcatcher
Supporting actress
Dorothy Anderson in Mr. Turner
Patricia arquette in boyhood
Emily blunt in into the woods
Rosamund pike in gone girl
Emma stone in birdman
Adapted screenplay
Foxcatcher
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Imitation game
Inherent vice
Unbroken
Original screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The grand Budapest hotel
A most violent year
Mr. Turner
Foreign language film
Leviathan
Mommy
Two days one week
Wild tales
The,wonders
Documentary feature
The case against 8
The green prince
Life itself
Return to home
Rich hill
Animated feature
Big hero 6
How to train your dragon 2
The Lego movie
The princess kuyaga
Song of the sea
Film editing
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone girl
The grand Budapest hotel
The imitation game
Cinematography
Birdman
Exodus: gods and kings
The grand Budapest hotel
The hobbit; the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Production design
Exodus: gods and kings
The grand Budapest hotel
The imitation game
Into the woofs
Unbroken
Costume design
Birdman
Exodus: gods and kings
The grand Budapest hotel
The imitation game
Inherent vice
Sound mixing
Get on up
Godzilla
Guardians of the galaxy
Interstellar
Unbroken
Sound editing
Big hero 6
Get on up
Godzilla
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Makeup and hairstyling
Exodus: gods and kings
The grand Budapest hotel
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Original score
Jonny greenwood for inherent vice
Trent reznor for gone girl
Alexandre desplat for the grand Budapest hotel
Danny elfman for big eyes
Stephen Sondheim for into the woods
Original song
Begin again
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Into the woods
The Lego movie
Visual effects
Get on up
Godzilla
Dawn of the planet of the apes
Guardians of the galaxy
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Best picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Exodus: gods and kings
Foxcatcher
The grand Budapest hotel
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
The imitation game
A most wanted man
Unbroken
I am sooo sorry to all of you especially to the kindest and most intelligent of hosts of this fabulous website (even if Sasha you yourself are in disagreement with my way of seeing tyhings at times that ok i can push buttons but that what healthy debate is about in society right?) and that what make you and Ryan simply scintillating reading and to engage with more so than any other film site on the web that is veyr high praise indeed you know?
I don’t mean to digress and hell i probably should go to bed..However..i am red with rage (not at anyone on this site NEVER!)..i can’t sleep…well i sure i survive on 6 hrs sleep and a nice storng cuppa after this…I recently watched again i should point out- so sharp, pointed and personal in some ways given the topic and nature of Spielbergs and i add one of the most provocative however intentionally flawed it may be conceptually…it truly is the only film of it setting of it kind to confront the compl;ications and implications and consequences of terrorism in the pre- 9/11 era and for that in my books if it were not for the Two Towers i would have furiously advocated for ‘Munich’ for best picture in my view does anyone here agree? that it was one of the most provocative controversial masterpieces in filmmaking in recent times…but what enrages me and i say this with upmost respect to the civil majority of palestinian and arabs after all i have arabic friends being jewish myself i proud of that fact..as i do have greek…etc etc friend well you all get the point..but what make me read with rage is how the GOVERNMENT a former minister of a now past failed Palestinian govt dares to deny that Hamas are resp[onsible just like as Munich so epxlicitty demonstrared how Black September were cuplable for making themselves a target before the Israeli Mossad…The idea that Israel instigates and willingly validates in the eyes of this failed palestinian former govt minister interviewed on our current affairs tonight…agaisnt the backfrop of the usual conflict once every few yrs..that this minister sought to justify the validation of Hamas attacks on israeli’s even after extremists elements 25 yrs or so ago in the 72 Munich games shamed and disgraced their own Palesitnian nation with the blood of 9 israelis” it just beggars belief frankly how irresponsible Palestinian govt are or how inept or how lacking i authority given they are the govt to date they are..to fail to denounce terrorism and claim constnatly israel start this and that..when as fact again and i trying to contextualise my anger on this issue…that SPileberg’s Munich is the ONYL film mainstream of it kind..to truly tackle and confront the issues head on and present as fact and demonstrate it in explicit no yholds barred in your face approach the point of what is fact and what is not..and what we know is fact that is just insulting todate to media viewers in the current present day regarding this decades old conflict is that the Palestinian govt fails time and again to stand up to terrorism by extremist groups..denounce them and let them dictate the govt’s agenda..and all this does is bring injustice by the hands of the extremist elements on the Palestinian pple that i have no doubt and no as fact are a proud pple have a proud history and culture of their own…so how and why even decades after the tragedy of ‘Munich; present day govts in the supposed post PLO era..supposedly moderate to not stand up to these rogues in their ranks is beyond me when they know they always have and always will launch the first strike like they did in ‘Munich; on that fateful most infamous of olympics in 1972..
I apologize if i implied something political..ui was trying to contextualise the arguemnt to one of the most underrated masterpieces and i maintaine one of the finest however flawed it ideology may be of the past decade and one of the finest in my time..Spiuelberg’s ‘Munich’ the timing was it undoing sadly..to be released a concept fo terrirsm happening abroad to a foreign country not belongijng to the terrorists homeland..struck a little too close to home only a few yrs after 9/11 for something so raw. so powerfula and so terrifyingly believable simply cos it did happen..unfortunately it got mired in politics and this in turn is the ONLY reason sadly ‘Munich’ did not attract more oscar votes..but much like Saving Private Ryan in my view at least it a film that nade a big impression on hte cinematicaly passionate for their life exp[erience thus far in film viewing who agrees?
PS: i want to emphasize as i luv all you guys and wonderful ladies regardless those i know and whichever culture ethnicity you believe in…and i appct any oposing views if anyone has any..so tell me Ryan and Sasha too do you agree with me? regarding whether or not Munich was arguably one of Spielberg’s best films post Chidnelr’s list and one of the most underrated masterpieces in ourt time esp as far as oscar went?
I think Mr Turner will turn out similarly to Inside Llewyn Davis and Moonrise Kingdom. A decent film by a beloved director, but ultimately the unluckiest to miss the cut.
I also don’t see the unconventional BP nom likes of Inherent Vice, Gone Girl AND Interstellar all making it in together. Maybe 1 or 2, but even if they all turn out to be masterpieces, at least 1 will miss the cut.
“…shame Calvary won’t get much attention either.”
As silly as an Oscar poll in July may be (and believe me, I know it’s rather silly) that’s one of the reasons we do these things: to raise awareness and try to get movies in the conversation. I agree, Jason B, Calvary is one of the best movies I’ve seen so far this year — and I’m trying to help by including it here, and including its actors in the actors polls too.
Not much love for A Most Wanted Man. And shame Calvary won’t get much attention either. Two of the best movies I’ve seen this summer.
Boyhood
Interstellar
Selma
Birdman
Rosewater ( A potentially Argo like film)
Foxcatcher
Inherent Vice (Although I have a feeling that it will be snubbed)
Gone Girl
Wild
Unbroken
Director
Wes Anderson the grand Budapest hotel
Stephen daldry trash
Richard linklater boyhood
Bennett miller foxcatcher
Morton tyldum the Imitation game
Boyhood- frontrunner as of now. A 100 score on metacritic certifies it
Birdman – closes Venice film festival
Fozcatxher- seems like a lock in acting and other main categories
The grand Budapest hotel- early release date may hurt it but its artsy funny little comedy is what rides it
The hobbit 3- could happen if Jackson decides to go with emotional depth and the special effects are on par with rotk
The imitation gane- true story strong ensemble cast first time director Oscar baity
Interstellar- Nolan fanboys are drueling over this one.
Theory of everything- small films get recognized
Unbroken- the trailer was epic
I’ve never seen Jordan perform on stage, unfortunately. The last time I was in NYC, we tried to get tickets to Bonnie & Clyde, but it was closing and it was sold out. My only exposure to him is from what I’ve seen from bootleg performances and from NBC’s Smash. He can sing his face off, and he’s wonderful to look at. But he’s wrong for Jamie. He’s too pretty. Jamie should be quirky, not studly. I’m not worried about his singing. It’ll be great, but I just think he’s wrong for the part.
@Benutty, I actually thought of that….I wouldn’t be surprised if Gone Girl isn’t what folks are hoping it will be. Nomination for editing, maybe soundtrack, still possibilities.
Can someone edit my list so that Birdman appears to be a part of the list–please?
Birdman
I based my ten on what I think will happen, sight unseen:
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
A Most Violent Year
Selma
Unbroken
I WISH: Snowpiercer
If it is released in 2014, I think Werner Herzog’s Queen of the Desert stands a good chance of being one of 10 nominees.
Herzog is always interesting and individual, and that cast is intriguing, Nicole Kidman, Damian Lewis, James Franco, Robert Pattison.
Cinematography, script, editing, acting, all are possible at this stage.
“It’s BONKERS — weird, weird, weird,” the insider said. “It made me laugh out loud several times, but not in the ways you might expect.
That means it’s faithful to the tone of the novel. “Bonkers.” Just like all of Pynchon’s novels. Good to hear. In spite of Thomas Pynchon’s status as one of the most significant American novelists of the past 50 years, no director has ever before tried to tackle Pynchon for adaptation.
What do you do with a novelist who seems impossible to corral and tame for a movie? You don’t try to corral him and tame him, that’s what. You mount the weirdness bareback and enjoy the wild ride.
This is from The Playlist: Over at In Contention, Kristopher Tapley has heard some intriguing feedback from one source, that suggests the movie is going in the direction of very zany comedy. “It’s BONKERS — weird, weird, weird,” the insider said. “It made me laugh out loud several times, but not in the ways you might expect. The humor is not so much ‘Boogie Nights,’ as I think a lot of people are expecting. For reals, it tips into, like, Zucker Bros.-level gags and broad humor. But, obviously, mixed with his other sensibilities. Strange, beguiling tone.”
Meanwhile, comparisons to “The Big Lebowski” and Robert Altman’s “The Long Goodbye” are being tossed around, and as for performances, Martin Short’s role as a drugged out dentist is being called “batshit insane.”
Over at Hollywood Elsewhere, Jeffrey Wells has also heard talk from those who’ve seen the movie early. Apparently it’s more of a “journey” movie than anything specifically plot driven, with yet another comparison to the Coen Brothers movie, and described as “brilliant and mesmerizing in an atmospheric, non-linear sort of way.”
Well apparently Inherent Vice has screened for some people, and word is it’s really really weird. I’m starting to think this film is not going to get any Oscar attention. All these descriptions make me think this is exactly like Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. That and the fact that Josh Brolin didn’t seem keen on the shooting style of PTA, calling it “chaos” and hoping they could assemble a coherent movie from it.
God damn do I want Birdman to rule.
here’s a great song by Jordan from The Last Five Years, Joey. If you’ve not seen this it should calm your fears.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuXzprnappg
surely I’m tired and stupid on my comments about Marshall and Jordan. Evenso, I think Jordan was cast for his ability to dance (otherwise, Joanathan Groff would have been the obvious choice) We’ll see if LaGravenese knows how to film and edit those two or three crucial opening numbers of Jordan’s.
If you can get something this captivating on the execrable Smash, than imagine what a little time and talent can do for him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTsjCSnSKvg
Rob Marshall has only directed two “major” broadway musicals previous to Into the Woods. Chicago, which was a gangbusters success in its 1999 revival. And he made it into a very entertaining movie, perhaps not a great one, but it was one the Academy clearly loved.
And then there was Nine. Based on Chicago everyone thought this was a surefire Best Pic. Except Me. Nine is, at best, a mediocre show with no memorable songs. It was doomed from the get go and anyone who put up money for it was stupid.
And now there is Into the Woods, certainly one of the great stage musicals of all time. It is far more linear and plot-oriented than the song and dance attributes of Chicago. It will have stunning sets, costumes, cinematography. And the stellar cast is filled with a nice combination of big stars and actual talent. Sure there are a few controversies afoot about Disney cutting some important aspects, but after some initial shock, I’m not so sure those will even be noticeable if done right.
Marshall comes from a Broadway background and unlike that shittard who directed Sweeney Todd understands what makes Sondheim a genius. When even mediocre fare like Les Miz can get nominated, assuredly Into the Woods is a surefire nominee.
——————
Thanks for including THe Last Five Years, Ryan, probably because I’ve been campaigning for it for over a year now/ I’m suspect on it’s BP chances, but less so on Anna Kendrick’s chances.
To Joey (above) Jeremy Jordan is not a great actor when he’s using spoken word, but when he’s singing and dancing he’s electrifying. Hopefully his ability to move and dance will be used to maximum effect in the opening numbers. I think his talents could bring a lot to those early numbers that aren’t in the show. Throw in Marshall’s ability to edit a great song and dance sequence and Jordan could be a revelation.
——————————
I’m rooting for Selma, still haven’t see Middle of Nowhere, but with the recent gutting of The Voting Rights Act of 1965, no film out there could be more influential. I’m hesitant on it winning BP so soon after 12 years, but if it’s good and people see it, it could galvanize a movement we surely need.
—————
You almost have to think Whiplash will do well since at Sundance it won over Boyhood which is universally loved.
As for the other 6, I’ll pick the usual (except Fincher and Nolan, two directors I’m not terribly excited about since neither has ever created a character I’ve been terribly interested in.)
I just wonder where Guardians of the Galaxy might end up. Early word is terrific. It almost has the same hype that Star Wars had when it was set to open, and remember where it ended up with Oscar? You NEVER know!!
At least one Weinstein film is in. Considering the ones they have, it’s either Big Eyes or The Imitation Game.
Boyhood
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Fury
Gone Girl
Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Macbeth
Trash
I’ve got
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Fury
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Would love if Inherent Vice made it, assuming it’s as great as all of PTA’s other work, but sounds like it’s going to be way too weird to widely appeal to the Academy.
Here you go
Unbroken
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Boyhood
Inherent vice
Gone girl
Birdman
Fury
Mr. Turner
Into the woods
Other strong contenders
A most violent year
Big eyes
Trash
I hear that The Last 5 Years is really something to behold. The source material is stunning. Maybe out could sneak in. Should at least make it to the Globes
Yeah, without Dreamworks or Pixar behind it to campaign, I think you’re right Kane. Plus, I’d agree if it goes on to be nominated, and hopefully win, the Best Picture – Animated Feature Oscar.
In other words: “Everything is Awesome!” 🙂
Al, there’s so much strong competition right now (granted almost all are sight unseen) that I don’t think LEGO Movie can stand a chance. Not that there are better films out there but just others up the Academy’s alley. I think if it gets in for animated feature (and wins) and original song I’d consider that a big victory. LEGO Movie isn’t DreamWorks or Pixar so I’m sure it’d have a big hill to climb for a top spot.
Now, just throwing this out there, but… Does anyone think, even for a second that The Lego Movie could get into the Best Picture race? It was praised, and it made a ton of $$$. Plus, there has been a recent history of animated films getting nominated:
Up
Toy Story 3
I am most confident about Birdman, Gone Girl, Interstellar, Unbroken and Foxcatcher being huge hits with The Academy based purely on hunches.
Boyhood
Big Eyes
Birdman
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Into the Woods
Unbroken
Wild
Interstellar
Can I just be the first to predict that Gone Girl is going to get ZERO nominations…
I voted for…
– Birdman
– Boyhood
– Foxcatcher
– Gone Girl
– Inherent Vice
– Interstellar
– Mr Turner
– The Grand Budapest Hotel
– Trash
– Unbroken
There’s an almighty discussion waiting to happen too regarding the directors – which I cannot wait for…
— Can Mexican directors win back to back directing Oscars?
— Would Sasha explode if Angelina and Ava filled two of the five director slots?
— With Miller, Anderson, Nolan, and Fincher do we have four of the very best of recent years?
— With Burton, Scott, Cronenberg, and Leigh do we have four of the very best veterans?
— Will indie Richard Linklater take it? Or Wes Anderson?
— Can you believe none of those have won the Best Director Oscar?
Ranked in the order of likelihood of a nomination, not my personal preference for which films I want to see nominated:
Foxcatcher
Unbroken
Inherent Vice
Mr. Turner
Wild
Gone Girl
Birdman
Interstellar
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Trash
I am really hoping that The Last Five Years gains some traction. It’s one of the best musicals of the last 20 years, and I bet it will be better than Into the Woods. Anna Kendrick is in both, but her part in L5Y is so much meatier. I am a bit worried about the director (Richard LaGravenese) and Kendrick’s co-star (Jeremy Jordan), but she should shine in it.
Most shocking to me is how far down the list Unbroken is.
Aren’t most of these films too dark for the Academy?
Of course I am messing around. If these movies we have been talking about are as good as it gets and are the definitive bunch that will distribute many of the nominations then we really appear to be spoiled. But as we suspect, there is likely half a dozen movies that may make an impact from nowhere.
Anyway, my selected ten, right now, and subject to change, would be:
Big Eyes
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Mr Turner
Unbroken
Wild
– Birdman
– Boyhood
– Foxcatcher
– Gone Girl
– The Imitation Game
– Inherent Vice
– Interstellar
– Selma
– Unbroken
Waiting in the Wings: A Most Violent Year. Wild. Into the Woods?
I feel confident that Grand Budapest Hotel won’t make the BP lineup (I feel more confident about this than I probably should). I have three “important”/heavy subject matter films in the Top 9 (Unbroken, Selma, The Imitation Game) and all three of them probably won’t make the cut, when all is said and done, but I wasn’t sure which one to predict will be the one that doesn’t live up to expectation. I have no sense of the chances for movies like Trash and Mr. Turner, which is why I left them off.
My off the cuff guesses were:
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
The Disappearance of Elanor Rigby
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Birdman
And then I realized I really should have included Mr. Turner (removing Theory or Disappeance?)
And Snowpiercer and Maps to the Stars would be great additions but I don’t believe they’ll make it, sadly.
Foxcatcher
Birdman
Inherent Vice
Boyhood
Interstellar
Gone Girl
Snowpiercer
Nightcrawler
A Most Violent Year
The Grand Budapest Hotel
I can dream, can’t I? That is of course if all these satisfy.
I think it’s important to acknowledge the trends that have happened in recent years. Namely that we won’t have 10–we’ll have 9 (but I’ll still give 10), but also that there are essentially “slots” that are filled by “types” of films, I’ve likened my nominees to one of the 9 nominees in each of the last 3 years:
Birdman (the Midnight in Paris, Les Mis, American Hustle slot)
Boyhood (the Tree of Life, Beasts of the SW, Her slot)
Foxcatcher (the Moneyball, Argo, Dallas Buyers slot)
The Homesman (the War Horse, Lincoln, Nebraska slot)
Interstellar (the Hugo, Life of Pi, Gravity slot)
The Judge (the Descendants, Silver Linings, Wolf of Wall St slot)
Mr. Turner (the Artist, Amour, Philomena slot)
Selma (the Help, Django, 12YAS slot)
Unbroken (the Extremely Loud, ZD30, Captain Phillips slot)
and my 10th: A Most Violent Year (if it comes out, I suspect a 2015 release though)
I would also love to see more polls on the other major categories. Especially Best Director. I think this year will be a phenomenal year in that particular category!
Birdman
Boyhood
Eleanor Rigby
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Selma
Unbroken
I keep forgetting that Affleck is hell of a campaigner so yeah maybe GONE GIRL is a way safer bet than I thought five ago.
At the risk of ruining my reputation, here’s how I voted and what I’m predicting right this second. I’d also love to know, besides what you’re predicting for BP, what are you predicting for the unofficial “top 5”, which is to say which pics you think will get the BP/BD combo.
In no particular order, sort of:
BP/BD – FOXCATCHER (won Best Director at Cannes so I assume it’s well “directed”)
BP/BD – BOYHOOD (I firmly believe the directors will rally behind Linklater for this one, propelling him to his first citation in the category)
BP/BD – INTERSTELLAR (This is the year Nolan finally makes the line-up. I expect it will sweep the techs a la GRAVITY. Yes, I have huge expectations for this baby. Surely everyone realizes that everything we’ve seen so far from the film, except perhaps for a couple of actors’ faces, is from the “first act”)
BP/BD – UNDER THE WOODS (The one “nobody saw coming”. But I did. Ew ew. I hope to be so wrong, but Meryl is already a lock for her portrayal of the wicked witch and it can only grow from there)
BP/BD – FURY (Trailer looks spectacular and I think that a high profile WWII David Ayer film could have the right stuff to make it in. I do realize I’m on really shaky ground with this one. Ayer, really? I know, but I think this “for-mens” movie will grab their attention. If Ayer doesn’t make it, then it’ll be either PTA or Leigh)
BP – INHERENT VICE (word on the street is this is leagues more “accessible” than either THE MASTER or THERE WILL BE BLOOD so if it is any sort of “hit”, then yes PTA will occupy the artsy spot on the BD line-up. But…but if you read the book, you know there’s a good amount of nutty/naughty, and from what we’ve heard PTA has only amped it u — now, because we know how prudish and “traditionalist” they can be, take that into consideration. Either way, it should find enough support in AMPAS at large to secure a BP spot)
BP – MR. TURNER (Mike freaking Leigh doing “period”)
BP – UNBROKEN (Suure. For all the reasons we’ve heard. Though I maintain that it looks terrible, but we know that doesn’t come into play, so yeah)
BP – SELMA (It’s MLK, and from what I’ve heard from those who’ve seen it (e.g., Ryan, Sasha) MIDDLE OF NOWHERE is excellent so I assume DuVernay has the chops to navigate these waters)
BP – GONE GIRL (Even though I expect it’ll be really good especially because I’m pretty sure Fincher got rid of that toxic screwball thingy, I don’t expect this to be as big a player as everyone else. Again, want to be proven wrong)
Lurking on the outside
THE IMITATION GAME (I’m still optimistic this will turn out great, but if it doesn’t, it has WWII, gay, and Weinstein so it should be safe. Just to clarify, I make the assumption this will end up being Weinstein’s preferred horse, but of course that could change)
GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (Could Wes Anderson finally make it to BP? Maybe, if it’s not forgotten, still, it would only make it if there’re 10 nominees. I don’t see the critics putting it back on the map at the end of the year. Maybe Best Actor mentions? Unlikely)
BIRDMAN (Really? Why? Still not buying it. Did you see the trailer? It looks silly and nuts, but hey why not? I’m certainly excited)
THEORY OF EVERYTHING (Sure sounds baity. Checks a lot of boxes. Needs a trailer)
And that is it. As of now I still don’t see anything else on the horizon with serious chances of BP nominations.
Strangely, it feels like this year looks predictable pretty far out. My top 10 are in the top 11 and, I dont see too many others jumping through unless a Slumdog type comes outta nowhere.
This is a complete shot in the dark:
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
The Imitation Game
Macbeth
Mr Turner
Suite Francaise
Unbroken
Sammy, what do you mean “after the disappointments”? Social Network nearly won best picture and Benjamin Button had 13 nominations. I’m saying Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and his earlier work landed softly (even though Tattoo had 5 noms, 1 win, it was posied to make a big splash).
Gone Girl (Slightly iffy since Fincher’s films either land softly or in a big way with the Academy)
After the disappointments of Benjamin Button and Social Network I doubt that Fincher will make anything Academy friendly at all. But yes any project having Ben Affleck in the lead and Fincher as the director would automatically get attention in the awards circuit no matter what the quality of the material is.
The 9 nominees
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone girl
The grand Budapest hotel
The imitation game
Inherent vice
Interstellar
Unbroken
Second tiers
Mr. Turner
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
A most violent year
Trash
Wild
Third tiers
Get on up
Suffrogate
Exodus:_gods and kings
Theory of everything
Love is strange
Toronto and Telluride will be very important for especially lower budget films. It is very hard to figure out the outcome now but considering the latest trend we will have a much more clear picture in terms of Oscar chances.
Birdman (based on the insane buzz)
Interstellar (looks like a serious, topical film for Nolan)
Boyhood (Getting best reviews of this, or any, year)
Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller seems 3 for 3, his films end up being my favorites of those years)
Trash (Daldry is loved by the Academy)
Unbroken (Loved star + sports + war + stranded at sea + Roger Deakins = Chariots of Saving Private Pi…with Roger Deakins)
Gone Girl (Slightly iffy since Fincher’s films either land softly or in a big way with the Academy)
Grand Budapest Hotel (Will be more accessible than Moonrise Kingdom and is Anderson’s biggest grosser)
A Most Violent Year (Chandor gets more visible with each film, actors always deliver)
Selma (Ava DuVernay doing MLK)
I was also close to picking Rosewater. Now, this isn’t the list I’m hoping for but the one I’m expecting the Academy to go with. Since PTA is one of, if not my absolute, favorite filmmaker I expect to love Inherent Vice. I also expect that I’ll wish it was an Oscar nom for best picture.
If The Monuments Men gets a nomination a la Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close I might vomit.
Although the summer blockbusters this year might not have much of a shot I think The Lego Movie, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 would be deserving of Best Picture nominations, regardless of genre.
I voted for these 8 from the poll options:
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Pawn Sacrifice
Selma
and I’m forced to add:
The Monuments Men (dir. George Clooney)
Clooney is an Oscar kind of guy. And that cast is gold. The only question is does it get sidelined in the precursors and wind up having to settle for a large nomination/low win situation.
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb (dir. Shawn Levy)
Oscar-winner Guillermo Navarro lensing this cast of legends in a classic crowd pleaser. Naomi Bakstad went from an assistant makeup artist on Air Bud (1997) to the key makeup artist position on this film. Here’s the kicker: Bill Cobbs is in Air Bud AND Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb. The Academy could be lured into the powerful narrative of two talents returning to collaborate once more, almost two decades between then and now. Could otherwise be a trilogy-capping nomination narrative if the studio decides it has the means to pull it off.
-Watermelons
In no particular order
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Mr. Turner
Inherent Vice
Wild
Big Eyes
Interstellar
Gone Girl
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Full disclosure: I’ve already seen 3 of my 10 choices, so I feel a bit more confident than I suppose others are at this point. Which 3 movies have I seen? Let’s just say the letter for the day is B, kids. You really should add Men, Women & Children (dir. Jason Reitman) and While We’re Young (dir. Noah Baumbach) to the list. My 10 choices:
Big Eyes
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Fury
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Trash
Unbroken
Thanks Ryan! Theory of everything is possible.
hmm, yes, ok, Ivan. Nightcrawler added. I love it that we live in a world where we can imagine Nightcrawler might get a Best Picture nomination.
NIGHTCRAWLER
NIGHTCRAWLER
NIGHTCRAWLER
I wish I could say I chose Birdman, but I’m drowsy and I only chose eight. And I didn’t even pick Boyhood!
Foxcatcher
Get On Up
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Selma
Trash
Unbroken
That aside, any chance we can get “Snowpiercer” added to this list?
Snowpiercer has far more right to be included in the deck of cards as The Judge which I only included because of Robert Duvall but actually looks like My Cousin Vinny but a lot less funny.
Snowpiercer added!
How can we say “Into the Woods” looks bad? There’s not even a Trailer yet!!! Let alone the movie itself.
That aside, any chance we can get “Snowpiercer” added to this list? Or am I living a fool’s fantasy in even hoping it will be considered?
In order of likelihood:
Foxcatcher – Baity premise, big names, strong festival presence, Bennett Miller. This movie’s been drifting around as a contender for a long time and now it’s finally upon us. Barring any real surprises at Toronto, NYFF, etc, I feel that this is the one to beat.
Unbroken – I’m still not convinced this will be all that great, but I’m quite willing to believe the Academy will eat it up regardless. It’s a shoo-in for more than a few big tech nominations, will probably get a big campaign, and has an irresistible subject.
Inherent Vice – Despite its lack of love two years ago, I maintain that The Master was close to a BP nomination. The subject matter’s not as thorny this time around, and people might be looking to make it up to ol’ PT. Centerpiece of NYFF doesn’t mean nothing.
Interstellar – How can you not, really? Nolan’s been (frustratingly, I’d say) christened as one of the Snubbed Ones, and not only is this a break away from his superhero antics, it’s also employing two recently Oscar-winning actors who can play on goodwill. Bound to be a big deal when it comes out, as well.
Boyhood – Will neatly fit into the indie niche that the Academy likes to maintain in its lineup. Its critical acclaim is a bit too overwhelming to ignore, and Linklater is a known enough name that he doesn’t stand too much a risk of getting swept under the rug. Story’s pretty agreeable/relatable, too.
Mr. Turner – Something for the British contingent to chew on, if nothing else. A Mike Leigh film hasn’t been in contention for BP for a long time now, but he’s copped a few less-than-assured writing nominations in the past decade, and even a directing nod for Vera Drake. Maybe this could push him back in?
Gone Girl – FIncher’s had a good streak for the past couple years (two BP nominations in a row followed by a near-miss), and this has a lot of pop appeal given its source material. Sure to be widely-seen, likely to be well-reviewed (I hope, at least). Only low because the content is pretty pulpy, which didn’t help TGWTDT.
Selma – Taking a big risk on DuVernay here, but it has an attractive cast and a very palatable subject. If this is as good as Middle of Nowhere reportedly was, it should have the exposure to push it into the conversation. Plus, maybe AMPAS would feel bad having only white people films after last year (or maybe exactly the opposite…).
Birdman – This movie looks pretty weird, yeah, but it’s also flashy, star-studded, and high-concept in a way that Oscar can deal with (think Being John Malkovich). Plus, for some reason I can’t make sense of, AMPAS likes them some AGI. If he can push Babel into BP…
Into the Woods – Honestly, this looks kinda bad, but there’s always one, isn’t there? Not that we’re even probably getting 10 nominees.
Sorry, I just noticed the “Please Pick 10” comment. Ooops… :/
I voted for just BOYHOOD (because it is too good to not be nominated). We don’t know anything else yet. This season looks VERY promising though!
Okay. I chose:
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
A Most Violent Year
Trash
Unbroken
let’s up the ante and come clean about which 10 movies we all chose.
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Mr Turner
Selma
Unbroken
Ryan, yes, this is quite fun. I think it would be great to do polls like this more often. It’s nice to see what others are expecting as well.
I think the only lock so far is Boyhood. But I really feel good about Inherent Vice, Gone Girl, and especially Foxcatcher.