Although the films that have won Best Picture out of Toronto after winning the People’s Choice award played first to critical acclaim at the Telluride film festival it is no doubt a big deal to win that prize from one of the larger voting groups ahead of the industry votes. The critics offer up their own awards next but they are a much smaller group of voters, roughly 100 to 200 at the most. Thousands vote at the Oscars, and the DGA, PGA and SAG. Thus, the People’s Choice can sometimes be a good harbinger for a majority vote. But that’s usually only a reliable indicator if the film that is going to be its main competition is there also, as was the case last year when 12 Years a Slave surprised everyone by beating Gravity. It went on to do the same at the Oscars.
First, a quick history of the People’s Choice awards. Oscar winners in red. Nominees in blue.
2014 The Imitation Game (2014)
2013 12 Years a Slave (2013)
2012 Silver Linings Playbook (2012)
2011 Where Do We Go Now? (2011)
2010 The King’s Speech (2010)
2009 Precious (2009)
2008 Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
2007 Eastern Promises (2007)
2006 Bella (2006)
2005 Tsotsi (2005)
2004 Hotel Rwanda (2004)
2003 Zatôichi (2003)
2002 Whale Rider (2002)
2001 Le fabuleux destin d’Amélie Poulain (2001)
2000 Wo hu cang long (2000)
1999 American Beauty (1999)
1998 La vita è bella (1997)
1997 The Hanging Garden (1997)
1996 Shine (1996)
1995 Antonia (1995)
1994 Priest (1994)
1993 The Snapper (1993) (TV)
1992 Strictly Ballroom (1992)
1991 The Fisher King (1991)
1990 Cyrano de Bergerac (1990)
1989 Roger & Me (1989)
1988 Mujeres al borde de un ataque de nervios (1988)
1987 The Princess Bride (1987)
1986 Le déclin de l’empire américain (1986)
1985 La historia oficial (1985)
1984 Places in the Heart (1984)
1983 The Big Chill (1983)
1982 Tempest (1982)
1981 Chariots of Fire (1981)
1980 Bad Timing (1980)
1979 Best Boy (1979)
1978 Girlfriends (1978)
You can look at the win for Imitation Game and conclude that this makes it the frontrunner to win Best Picture and you might not be wrong. But I’d say it wasn’t up against Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, and it wasn’t up against Birdman, a competition that would surely shift the dynamics of the race. It also wasn’t up against the films we’ve yet to see.
But to put the film in your number one spot, as many pundits will now do, is not a bad move particularly. The Imitation Game has much going for it, not only because it’s a crowd pleasing film but also because it features what will be among the best performances of the year from Benedict Cumberbatch.
The Imitation Game comes at the race with two big issues sitting behind it. One, the horror of a society criminalizing homosexuality. The second, a rumination on what it is to be an adult with Asperger’s or Autism. The film makes that plainly clear, even if the words are never spoken out loud. Those in the spectrum community will surely recognize it and those who aren’t yet schooled on spectrum disorders will surely learn something. These two factors greatly improve the film’s chances to be important enough to win.
It is also an easier plot to fall into than Richard Linklater’s profoundly moving Boyhood. One must really be invested with Boyhood or it will never have the same impact. With Imitation Game, it is likely the movie that anyone can be moved by.
But Imitation Game will come up against (so far, at least) two visionary directors in Linklater and in Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman. Both have advanced the craft of filmmaking to a significant degree. Both are going to be remembered for drawing audiences into the theater to check out the wonder of cinema without the use of CGI (for the most part). They will both be in contention to snatch the director prize away from the Imitation Game’s fairly unknown director Morten Tyldum. Get used to saying that name out loud.
The People’s Choice award in this case gives The Imitation Game a ticket to the Big Show (which it already had) but its eventual landing point remains a mystery. There are simply too many unanswered questions. At the top of that list of questions is this — is the industry really going to watch a film like Boyhood, which took 12 years to make, pass by unnoticed? I doubt it. Is the industry really going to reward something so traditional in the face of films like Birdman and any other visionary work upcoming? That is certainly possible, given their recent history.
The Imitation Game and Boyhood are both already beloved films. I would have to say that they are positioned as the top two to win at this point, with Boyhood slightly ahead.
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At the top of that list of questions is this — is the industry really going to watch a film like Boyhood, which took 12 years to make, pass by unnoticed? I doubt it.
I don’t. Supporting Actress for Rosanna Arquette, Original Screenplay and quite possibly Editing Oscar nominations. But I’m not even sold it can figure into the Best Picture list, not even with all those great reviews.
I saw The Imitation Game at the first Gala screening at TIFF with about 1,600. You could tell the audience for the most part loved it. They also loved The Theory of Everything and Pride at TIFF. These are all very good movies because they move audiences. I don’t know if IMG will win best picture but I won’t be surprised if it does win best actor.
I think Morton Tyldum is a good director. I really like Headhunters and with this film, he could have made a reserved, typically British film but he added some passion to it.
TIG is mediocre. Actors are great, though.
Ryan nailed it when it came to my Metacritic observation. The highest score is just an 80. It’s like people respect it more than they like it. Sure some low scores got into the nomination mix in the past, but they rarely win. Crash is really the only one that has. And it won because of homophobia. Unless there’s something completely “taboo” or controversial about Boyhood, I can’t see the correlation.
All this doesn’t matter though.
Into the Woods is coming.
I like M1 too. That is all as well.
I like commenters who challenge me, and the things (sometimes crazy) I say.
As for American Hustle, I am a little surprise it did that well, considering there were so many detractors. I remember so many last year saying, “I hope American Hustle doesn’t win”.
I like M1. That is all
@Al Robinson: What you’re saying can certainly be true in some cases, but not all the time. For example, when American Hustle first screened, the word on it was relatively modest. It currently holds a 90 on Metacritic. Nebraska had mixed reviews at Cannes, but the reviews improved and it now has an 86 on Metacritic.
Point is, you cannot assess overall critical reception based on one or two screenings. You have to wait.
Rufus, dollars to donuts The Imitation Game can get in with at least a score of 71 when all is said and done. Babel and Crash both sat in the high 60s…
Inglourious Basterds had a metascore of 69. The New York Times, LA Times, Washington Post, Salon, The New Yorker all gave Inglourious Basterds scores of 50, 50, 50, 50, 50. (Dargis, Turan, Hornaday, Zacharek, Denby)
and yet, Inglourious Basterds won simulated Best Picture honors on the AwardsDaily simulated Oscar ballot that year. (in the 9th round of tabulation, Basterds narrowly accumulated enough redistributed ballots to barely pull ahead of The Hurt Locker).
But Kane is right. If a movie is going to have detractors who are less impressed then it will need just as many strong supporters who think it’s “perfection.” 5 metacritic critics gave Basterds scores of 100.
You guys know I’m sick of citing metacritic, but there’s no denying the wavering correlation the raw numbers have on eventual awards outcomes. I do think a movie needs to demonstrate that a good solid 10% of viewers have to think a movie is “perfect” before we can say it’s a lock for a BP nomination. Five 100s out of ~40 reviews is about right to cross that threshold.
Let me say it again though: I’m sick of metacritic numerology. I never heard of Catherine Shoard till 5 minutes ago. Why the hell do I care if she gave The Imitation Game a score of 60? She’s nobody to me. The Guardian is not The Bible.
Foxcatcher wins BP.
No facts to back it up. Just save this comment.
Oh, and Julianne Moore can start finding a place for her Oscar.
M1,
Reactions by critics, especially right after film festivals, where there are more than 120 days left in the year, reminds me of the chewing gum principle. They chew the gum, it tastes great at that moment, and after a little while, loses it’s flavor.
Rufus, dollars to donuts The Imitation Game can get in with at least a score of 71 when all is said and done. Babel and Crash both sat in the high 60s, granted there were a few 100s between them. Now you get The Reader, mid 50s I believe. Jump down to the 40s and you’ll find Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Blind Side. Not the best critically reviewed but what do those last 3 all have in common? They’re topical with well-loved actresses…2/3s of them starring Sandra Bullock. Never count out a Meta score of 71 if the movie is a genuine crowd pleaser backed by Weinstein himself. But I do pay attention to the non-100s sometimes…if it wasn’t The Imitation Game I’d probably change a few predictions.
“Has anyone taken the time to notice how shitty a score The Imitation Game has on Metacritic?”
Has anyone taken the time to notice that there are fewer than 10 reviews for it on Metacritic and that the score could very well increase drastically? No, of course not. Most people just rely on first impressions alone nowadays.
Has anyone taken the time to notice how shitty a score The Imitation Game has on Metacritic? 9 reviews thus far, 3 average, with the highest score being an 80 – for a total score of 71. Sure it’s incomplete, but there’s no passion here.
It’s a bad assumption to conclude that TIFF had a good set of films this year. I’m not a TIFF fanatic, but it this looked like the weakest crop of films they’ve had in recent memory.
And with perhaps the best reviewed film in recent memory, Boyhood, out there, it looks like TIFF will be completely uninfluential in this year’s BP race.
“I have a bad feeling that he’ll make top 5 cut and push out more deserving director whose movie AMPAS “didn’t get.””
Oh, so you’ve seen The Imitation Game? That’s wonderful! What did you think of it?
Makeup guardians of the galaxy
My Oscar winning predictions for right now
Picture. The imitation game
Director. Richard link later boyhood
Foreign film. Cantaflinas
Actor Benedict cumberbatch the imitation game
Actress too close to call
Supporting actor j.k Simmons whiplash
Supporting actress Patricia Marquette boyhood
Original screenplay. Boyhood or Mr. Turner
Adapted screenplay the imitation game
Production design The judge
Costume design Cantaflinas
Original song everything is awesome the Lego movie
Original score Hans zimmer interstellar
Cinematography The Homesman
Sound mixing interstellar
Sound editing interstellar
Visual effects too close to call
Documentary feature too close to call
Short films who the heck knows
Short subjects who the heck knows
Governor awards hayao mizayki, and other two names
I’m just super curious how this will be discussed for the next podcast. Setting up to be another interesting race for the last three months of the year.
thank you, Jordan, for being a voice of reason.
Tyldum will have a hard time cracking the big boys (and/or Jolie). But he may just sail in like Hooper.
But I agree with posters above. Its mid September. Its early. There’s so much to be seen yet. Some will fall by the wayside, as usual. But some will be great and take a few current films off its perch (at least in the early phases til it possibly comes back around again).
I just hope Morten Tyldum won’t be discriminated this awards season by pundits and commentators for not having a well known film before “The Imitation Game” in case it turned out a big player for the Oscars race.
It is a frightening thought that the likes of Fincher, Anderson, Nolan, Inarritu, Linklater, Miller etc can’t all make the Director five. And that there is so much competition it is plausible more than one of those won’t get in. The race has a habit, no disrespect to those that do get in, of dropping locks a la Affleck and Bigelow. Remember that?
Mortal Tedium’s directing isn’t getting any notices yet I have a bad feeling that he’ll make top 5 cut and push out more deserving director whose movie AMPAS “didn’t get.” Most likely Fincher (thriller!) or Nolan (sci fi) or Inarritu (what the hell did I just watch?) or PTA (ditto) or Linklater (hey, he’s our go-to guy for screenplay lets play it safe)
TIFF Award was expected but it’s still a disaster. I mean, I totally understand stanning for actors (who are the story based on reviews) but the movie itself? It’s a freaking King Speech: Imitation. No, we DON’T need another winner like that!
Oh, and, please, this thing doesn’t qualify for “important” since gay rights part is barely in the movie, like closing credits mention or something. So if anyone is looking for a movie to redeem AMPAS for Brokeback, THIS IS NOT IT!
Wo Hu Cang Long is Oscar nominee Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.
Thinking about how things are going to change after this…Cumberbatch’s chances of winning Best Actor are rapidly improving (and they were pretty rosy already), though I’d rather, picking between two performances I haven’t seen, see Michael Keaton win.
Picture is a bit trickier, though Imitation Game winning is hardly impossible. It looks like a pretty competitive year, and as I’ve said previously, I think they’ll be spreading the love. I’m still going with Unbroken as the likeliest Best Picture winner, with Imitation Game second, and Birdman tentatively third.
Boyhood, though, I think will fade as the fall contenders swarm in and make themselves felt. I’d be surprised if it was totally shut out, of course, but I’m thinking it’ll get Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress, and maybe an Editing nomination (and maybe, if Supporting Actor remains an iffy category, a nod for Hawke), and that’ll be it. Winning any of these is unlikely, though I guess Arquette could pull it off.
I agree Benedict Cumberbatch appears to be loved in Hollywood. But being from England I was / am perhaps less surprised by his current success in America. I would say about time. And this will weigh well on the movie’s chances, not to mention it has been well received. This is a very competitive year it seems, there are more serious contenders for Best Picture this year than I can remember. I know I’ve mentioned it before but I still think Interstellar has a say in all this too. I’m not writing anything off, but am truly excited about what’s coming…
I love Boyhood but some people think it’s just good or too long. Imitation Game is more in the style of a Best Picture Oscar winner. We shall see.
In a perfect world, Leviathan or Foxcatcher which are capital C cinematic would be bigger contenders for the top prize. Also in a perfect world especially in a thin Best Actress year, the Academy would look at Mommy’s Anne Dorval or Under The Skin’s Scarlett Johansson.
One more thing. I don’t mean to stop on The Imitation Game’s parade. I don’t mean to be a party-pooper. I’m happy for it. I’m sure I will really like it in fact. 🙂
If it’s one of the best films of the year, then it should be in the Oscar race. We want the best movies to compete against the other best movies.
“I have to reason to belive it will not deserve to win” I can not seem to type today!! I thought I wrote “I have no reason to believe…”
Ugh. Silly fingers. (D’oh!). 🙂
…AND The Imitation Game backlash begins now even though hardly any of us have seen it!
What a delightful awards season this is going to be.
Oh, it is getting excited at last ! Boyhood, The Imitation Game, Foxcatcher, Birdman seem to be the strongest out of the gate (=not just strong contenders in BP, but also BD), I think Gone Girl, Unbroken, Inherent Vice will join in and five of those seven directors will be in the final top5. Right now every other film feels like filler BP-nominees at best. I could be wrong. I could be SO wrong, oh the beauty and excitement of the early season, just right before the herd voting ruins all the fun.
“to be the Oscar winner, when it doesn’t deserve to do so”. I probably should have used if instead of when. I misswrote that sentense. I have to reason to belive it will not deserve to win. If is a much more accurate sentiment.
Okay, I’ve just read the article, and Sasha, I see what you’re saying. The Imitation Game hasn’t yet gone up against bigger competition, and thus is speculated as a frontrunner since people pay attention to Toronto, but Toronto is an incomplete assumption. We won’t yet know the competition amongst the top tier films yet until they face off against each other. I hope that my fears will be unfounded, and I’m just merely feeling delusional. I will gladly accept that.
But, just in case my point had been misunderstood, I wasn’t comparing The Imitation Game to The King’s Speech because The King’s Speech won the Oscar. I was comparing them in terms of I have a fear that The Imitation Game could go on to be the Oscar winner, when it doesn’t deserve to do so. Back in 2010, as was very well pointed out on the Oscar Podcast, that there were many other more deserving films ahead of The King’s Speech. That happening again is what I’m afraid of with The Imitation Game. But I need to add, that it is unfair of me to pre-judge a movie I haven’t yet seen. It’s just so hard to stop doing.
Al, take a look at the post you just read.
Oh for Pete’s* sake, Ryan! I.see.what.you.did.there 🙁
*Peter Berg
It is kind of frustrating seeing the same formulaic movies win big leaving behind daring films like Social Network, Gravity and now it seems Birdman, Boyhood and Gone Girl. I like Alan Turing and sympathize with his story but I find the trailer and feel of this film kind of same old winning film.
The Imitation Game ticks a lot of Academy boxes – true story, important subject matter, period setting. It could be this year’s A Beautiful Mind. Cumberbatch’s recent surprise Best Actor win at the Emmys shows he has strong support in Hollywood, too.
^
I’ll go along with this experiment if we get to put Peter Berg’s name on American Sniper.
I propose an experiment. Who wants to help out? Here’s the hypothesis: If we re-release LONE SURVIVOR in December 2014, exact same movie, and we deceive The Academy by replacing Peter Berg’s name with Clint Eastwood’s, I predict the film would get ten Academy Awards nominations. Pretty sound, isn’t it?
I just posted this on the previous post, but I’ll post my comment here too.
Here are the movies that have won at Toronto and went on to Win BP at the Oscars:
2013 – 12 Years a Slave
2010 – The King’s Speech
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire
1999 – American Beauty
1981 – Chariots of Fire
—
I have started getting an uneasy feeling of The Imitation Game turning into the next The King’s Speech. I hope that’s not true, and I have nothing to really base my feeling off of, other than they’re both British films, they both won Toronto, and both are from The Weinstein Company. Uh oh! 🙁