It’s 1941. A movie comes out that blasts a character who has an uncanny resemblance to William Randolph Hearst. It is a cold depiction of the American dream, an icy portrait of a man’s rise from poverty to world-famous fortune, who could never find that thing he needed most: love. Hearst did what he could to block the movie’s success. That movie was Citizen Kane and it’s considered one of the best films of all time. Citizen Kane was nominated for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay (which it won), Actor, Cinematography (Black and White), Art Direction, Sound, Editing and Score.
It’s 1941. A movie about a detective who comes upon a gang of criminal misfits all in search of a valuable falcon. It was written by a pulp novelist who was considered trash at the time but whose literary stature grew as the years wore on. It’s film noir at its absolute best — some say film noir at its very genesis. It features a lot of unlikable characters who will eventually become among the most beloved in film history. That movie was The Maltese Falcon and it was nominated for Best Picture, Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor.
It’s 1950. A movie about a writer who visits an aging movie star and then dies at the end, in fact he’s dead at the beginning. It’s dark and depressing with no relief in sight. It featured mostly unlikable characters whose best days were behind them. It revealed the dark underbelly of Hollywood, the ugly side of being famous and then forgotten. That movie was Sunset Boulevard and it was nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Art Direction and Screenplay.
It’s 1950 again. A movie about actresses competing for the top spot on Broadway. One of them seems nice at first but eventually reveals herself to be a nasty, cutthroat sociopath who is manipulated by another sociopath and the two of them become the toast of the New York stage community while more deserving actresses are casually and cruelly cast aside. It never lets up and certainly doesn’t punish the sociopath. She is merely replaced by another and soon to be another and another. That movie was All About Eve and it WON six Oscars, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Costumes, Best Sound and was nominated for two leading Actress Oscars, three Best Supporting Actress Oscars, Cinematography, Art Direction, Editing and Score.
Shall I continue?
Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
Five Easy Pieces
The Godfather*
Deliverance
The Exorcist
The Godfather Part II
Jaws*
Taxi Driver
Network
The Deer Hunter
Apocalypse Now
Raging Bull
The Elephant Man
Fatal Attraction
Goodfellas
The Silence of the Lambs*
Unforgiven
Pulp Fiction
Fargo
LA Confidential
Munich
The Departed
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
Django Unchained
The Wolf of Wall Street
These movies either feature extreme violence, border on horror, or else they have dark or downbeat endings. In his Gone Girl piece, Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg asks that question that comes up any time a film challenges the paradigm of redemptive, happy ending films, “Is it an Oscar movie?” This was also bandied about up in Telluride after Birdman screened.
While it’s true that the majority of films that get rewarded at the Oscars (and can we stop saying simply the Oscars since we’re talking about uniform agreement across all guilds now, the PGA, the DGA and SAG – these groups vary in all age groups) tend to be uplifting stories about heroic people that is not exclusively true.
No one should ever ask the question of whether it’s an Oscar movie or not — they should ask whether it’s a great film or not. If it is, then it should qualify as an Oscar movie. That goes for movies like Beasts of the Southern Wild, movies like The Exorcist and Citizen Kane and movies like Gone Girl.
That’s Feinberg’s job, I get that. His job is to try to talk to voters and try to get to know them better than they know themselves. That’s fine. But I’ve been at this game for 16 years and what I usually see them do — though this has changed somewhat since they changed Oscar voting for Best Picture — is reward the films that stand out, regardless of tone, regardless of feel goodness and regardless of whether they depict humanity in the brightest upbeat light.
I am annoyed at people who continually dismiss Gillian Flynn’s book as a “beach book” or chick lit or, in some really shameful cases, “trash.” While they are certainly entitled to their opinions they happen to be wrong. Flynn’s book is a horror novel and should be categorized as such. If it’s a beach book well, honey, so was Jaws, so was The Godfather, and so was The Shawshank Redemption, Misery and any Stephen King you can come up with. Hollywood has a long tradition of turning so-called “beach books” into Best Picture contenders.
Seriously, what’s more offensive, Goodfellas or Around the World in 80 Days? How about The Towering Inferno? Yes, the public used to help drive Best Picture because they turned out and paid money to see popular films. Those films, in turn, would be rewarded by the Academy. But over the years the Academy has selected out the public’s influence because nowadays can you imagine? Transformers 4 for Best Picture?
Feinberg says Gone Girl is most like Fatal Attraction. Because, he says, they both have crazy women in them. Fatal Attraction is a film that cements the bonds of marriage, punishes the infidels, and offers up prurient sex scenes for mass entertainment. Gone Girl is the polar opposite. The only similarity is that they both involve a blonde who torments a man. Gone Girl may in fact be the flip side of Fatal Attraction when you think about it. The main difference for me — and it’s a big big difference — is that Fatal Attraction is told from the side of the man where Gone Girl is told from the side of the woman. One is a dark and despairing ending and one rights the wrongs of infidelity and sends people home feeling like their marriage still can work.
The other big difference is that David Fincher is a renowned visionary, one of America’s most revered and beloved directors. Adrien Lyne was not. Lyne was nominated once for Fatal Attraction and has gone down in history as an interesting but mainstream director interested in the sexuality of women. Fincher has been nominated twice and is known for having directed some of the best films of all time. I love Scott but this comparison is wrong and lazy; he is an Oscar watcher which means he very well knows how connected the Best Picture race is to a prestigious director.
The Silence of the Lambs, No Country for Old Men, the Godfather films — the Scorsese and Tarantino sagas– these bloody epics, these dark examinations of society are rewarded and not shunned by the Academy, yet Feinberg is suggesting that this film is too much for them or too rough for them. Much of that is to do singularly with who directed these films. Directors matter greatly — they drive the Best Picture race. Fincher is so far one of the most important American directors never to win an Oscar. That matters. They nominated The Godfather III. That’s how much they value the prestige of a director.
Feinberg also says the Academy has been cool on Fincher. Well they nominated Benjamin Button in 13 Oscar categories. They nominated The Social Network for 8, 3 of which it won. While Dragon Tattoo missed out on Picture and Director it WON the editing Oscar without winning any other Oscars and having no Best Picture nomination. That hadn’t been done since 1958 with Bullit. That’s how much they like David Fincher.
We’re not talking about whether Gone Girl can win. Since the Academy is run by men and since so much of the kneejerk reaction to Gone Girl has been a parade of misogyny, dismissing chick lit, dismissing Flynn’s work and most of all, not tracking with the preteen movie pube-free warriors who drive part of the box office tracking, it’s probably unlikely an unsentimental non-weepy indictment of the American dream will or can WIN. No, a consensus vote requires people to turn on their heart lights since 2009’s The Hurt Locker won.
Sure, there are extreme cases that might be “too much” for the Academy. Some might have said that about Black Swan, which came close to winning. What voters require is that it’s a good movie more that they get. Treating them like children is not going to get any of us anywhere.
I’m not saying Feinberg is doing that, but the question overall “Is it an Academy movie” always feels like sand in my shoe. And it always makes me want to break plates.
Gone Girl is what it is — the best film of the year (so far), with Boyhood just behind it (in my opinion). I think Boyhood is still the film to beat for the win as we wait for the rest of the Big Oscar movies to open. Anyone who doesn’t choose the best films of the year for Best Picture, regardless of their content, probably shouldn’t be in the business of choosing best of the year.
Still, all of that said, it’s hard to dismiss Feinberg’s questions. He knows the Academy. So let’s just ghettoize Gone Girl and Birdman, the two best films of the year because they are too hard for the softest softies in the Academy.
What Feinberg might have focused his piece on, rather than the delicate sensibilities of the most sensitive voters (shame on them if that’s the case, shame on them) is to talk about what’s coming next because what’s coming next is the only thing that can prevent Gone Girl from getting nominations. It is a crowdpleaser, like The Departed. It is a noir, like The Maltese Falcon. And it is a devilish comedy, wickedly funny like All About Eve.
My picks for the Best Films of the Year so far — by best I mean they are unique, sometimes moving, sometimes informative and sometimes just plain old entertaining:
1. Gone Girl
2. Boyhood
3. Birdman
4. Mommy
5. Foxcatcher
6. The Imitation Game
7. Maps to the Stars
8. The Homesman
9. Mr. Turner
10. Whiplash
11. The Grand Budapest Hotel
The top films I think have the best shot to be nominated as of now:
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Gone Girl
4. The Theory of Everything (which I have not seen)
5. Birdman
6. Foxcatcher
7. Whiplash
8. Wild
9. The Homesman
10. The Grand Budapest Hotel
11. Mr. Turner
But films that are coming down the pike that could derail any of these:
1. American Sniper
2. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
4. Selma
5. Fury
6. Into the Woods
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
There is no way we can get out of here by acting crazy, we need
to settle down. He’s got to refrain from screaming
like a little girl when a hit ball comes right
at his face. “What you be doin’ here, Doctor, I ain’t starting no trouble on your account.
I love it when the conversation turns to civility and mutual respect on here. Lol jk let’s rip each other apart.
saw gone girl yesterday, don’t understand the fuss. I mean, it’s a good fincher movie, well acted, beautiful, great score, but that’s about it. I mostly agree with the new yorker review “Gone Girl lacks clout where it needs it most, at its core”. I guess that if you like something and you’re smart (which sasha is) you can write long essays about how amazing the movie is, how it illuminates the times we live in, etc. (of which I expect A LOT of between now and Oscar time, unless it is really left out of the running early on, which I really hope mostly so I can read more of sasha’s writing about other movies which I think deserve more analytic pieces, and advocacy).
also I’m hoping with all my heart that selma is amazing and has a real chance, as well as unbroken, because this super white male oscar thing is really pissing me off.
Benutty, actually I don’t think we disagree at all. Maybe I wasn’t clear but I was saying Tree of Life was a contender for other nominations, it was talked about, Pitt and Chastain were under heavy consideration by the Academy. Pitt’s star wattage, exposure for Moneyball and working with Malick upped his chances at the very least and many other critics groups agreed. Same goes for Chastain, who had 5 or 6 movies releasing that year. If Tree of Life got in for 3 big awards then that means it was under consideration for others, but I’m not saying those spots were guaranteed. You are right about sound mixing, those spots are usually given to musicals or big action movies. Frankly I would’ve rolled over if the Academy recognized the sound mixing in such a movie. Also Malick was nominated for adapted screenplay for Thin Red Line and nominated for original screenplay for Tree of Life by various groups. The thing with him is his movies usually come together during editing so I’m never sure what his original script looks like compared to the final product. My point is, again, if it got in for some then it was considered for others.
Kane and Rufus, we must agree to disagree on this. Birdman is going to show up with a lot of nominations. Although I think Tree of Life should have gotten acting nominations, Jessica’s more talked about role that year was for The Help, so she was never going to get a nom for both and that’s unfortunate because Tree of Life is so much better work from her. And I don’t think Brad Pitt’s performance was showy enough. Also, Malick doesn’t really strike me as a screenplay contender in the same way that other auteurs are so I don’t think he’s a viable candidate in that field. As for sound, Tree of Life was never going to get Sound nominations because those are routinely filled by films with lots of guns (editing) and/or music (mixing).
Hey, Sasha and Ryan!
Thank you for your kind and prompt replies. I agree with Ryan that just because a great director is attached to a project, it should not be a lock for an Oscar Nod. I also agree that it’s a bit unfair that Meryl Streep gets nominated almost every time she is in a movie. Yes, she is amazing. One might argue she is the GOAT at acting but come on. Into The Woods? How about Maleficent and Snowwhite and the Huntsmen? Just because Meryl is in a fantasy movie, all of a sudden it’s elevated to LOTR status.. Anyway..
In terms of Fincher, PTA, Wes Anderson, Aronofsky, Nolan and Soderbergh – yes they are all very good and worthy successors to the Coppola, Scorsese, Spielberg, Hitchcock and Kubrick.
I also think that Soderbergh should feel incredibly lucky to have won. Even though he deserved it, I feel bad that also one of the greats, Sir Ridley Scott hasn’t won. I guess the company he is in is very worthy!
I just think that while the Oscars are not the be all of all things, the fact that THEY take themselves seriously annoys me. Even though they make mistakes and obviously there’s so many awards that can go around, the fact they believe that their opinion should trump all others, especially in the history of movies is very unfair.
I like Rufus’ defending the Beach Read. I’m less convinced of his BP predix. Boyhood, Birdman, Foxcatcher, Interstellar, and Unbroken, yes. (Anyone else notice how the best way to get a BP this year is to have a one-word film with a fascinating mix of prefix and suffix?) Into the Woods…VERY maybe.
As for Gone Girl, I’ll say something no one else has said: Gillian Flynn’s splendid writing is not really based on plot or even character. Her observations, colloquialisms, and offhand metaphors are Goddamn Brilliant. Reading her is not Beach, it’s more like the Perfect Hot Tub: you never want to get out or turn off the jets. Flynn was right to hook up with Fincher, because what regularly working director today has shown the kind of fealty to novelists that Fincher showed to Chuck Palahniuk and Stieg Larssen? But…
SPOILERS (I haven’t seen the movie)
…I can’t quite forgive Gone Girl for Nick’s duplicity in the first half of the book. NO ONE on the planet would talk to the “audience” and drop eventual plot-bombs (e.g. his mistress) without saying BY THE WAY, GUYS, I DID NOT KILL MY WIFE. That duplicity is all in the name of the Big Twist about the fake diary, and that’s fine, but what that meant was that Nick’s second half was ridiculous. The only way he could have been holding back about his innocence was that if he was Guilty of Something (if not murder, then something), so I waited for that shoe to drop, and waited, and waited…and instead of the shoe dropping, Nick’s existing shoes became squeaky-clean. We had to feel sorry for him, almost like…well, I hate to say it, but like Dan in Fatal Attraction. (Which for me is the Fatal Flaw of that film. Susan Faludi explains in the book Backlash how it was supposed to be a movie about how both lovers are shit, and that’s the script Glenn Close signed on to, but as it evolved in production, Michael Douglas threw his weight around, and Dan became our precious snowflake. Anyway…)
So: Gone Girl, terrifically written book, but…a little too clever for its own good. Prioritizes twistiness over character, certainly in Nick’s case. Amy is a great character, this is true.
When Gone Girl misses its nomination, I don’t think it’ll because it’s “not an Oscar movie.” Actually, we’ve seen the Oscars rally to poor men like Affleck. (Boy, have we ever.) I think it will be because…Flynn handed Fincher a structure with too many twists in it. (Picture interlocking Escher staircases.) Cleverness without warmth…hm, maybe I *am* saying it’s not an Oscar movie. Well, not because of genre, though.
However, if it feels like it does justice to the recession and fading Gen-X and Gen-Y dreams (and those don’t just feel like props), and no other film in this race does that, and if it makes (adjusted) Fatal Attraction dollars, Rufus will be right.
The other big difference is that David Fincher is a renowned visionary, one of America’s most revered and beloved directors. Adrien Lyne was not. Lyne was nominated once for Fatal Attraction and has gone down in history as an interesting but mainstream director interested in the sexuality of women. Fincher has been nominated twice and is known for having directed some of the best films of all time. I love Scott but this comparison is wrong and lazy; he is an Oscar watcher which means he very well knows how connected the Best Picture race is to a prestigious director.
Tom Hooper and Michel Hazanavicius thank you very much for your support.
Carrie Coon better get an Emmy nom for The Leftovers- she was astounding.
The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything are both very good movies, even if they are also Oscar bait.
Once the Academy sees Pride I won’t be surprised if it gets a best picture nomination.
I completely agree with Sasha on this. “Gone Girl” is exemplary, and I didn’t think of it as “pulpy” at all. I thought of it as a great thriller, one of the greatest thrillers of all time, and not being a fan of Fincher here-to-fore, I am now re-thinking all my attitudes to him and his work, partially because of Sasha’s championing on him, and I now see, since seeing “Gone Girl” that Sasha was absolutely right.
It’s a profound take on marriage, today. And not just a thriller, though it is one of the greats, and so is Fincher, and the Academy DOES have to take this film VERY seriously for the great work of cinematic art that it is AND the great thrill ride.
Rosamund Pike has jumped to the head of the Best Actress race. i can see Tyler Perry who is also surprising and astonishing in his best ever serious acting role, as well as Neil Patrick Harris, defying categorization yet again and producing an important performance in his “quick-silver” career. Those were David Finhcer’s words to describe Harris, BTW, at the press conference at the Loew’s AMC in NYC on Friday.
Add in Carrie Coon’s as a possiblilty in the Supp. Actress category, too. And of course, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, BEST EDITING(for sure, Fincher keeps winning in that category) and maybe Best Cinematography and Musical Score, too.
This film is so wildly enjoyable I think it’s going to bring home the nomination Bacon from the Academy. It’s THEIR kind of film. It’s thrilling, and NOT TOUGH for the Academy to delight in every twist and turn. They’re gonna love it. As I did.
I liked the Gone Girl book but i did not like the ending. It wasn’t from a moral standpoint, i just thought it was stupid and unrealistic.
I cannot see Pike beating out Julianne Moore, who has EVERYTHING going for her. It would cause a big backlash against whoever wins over her. Juli is v popular and is having such an outstanding year that it would be an embarrassment to lose.
One last point. I am so fed up of people insinuating that the only reason Moore will win is because she is overdue or because it is a weak year. What a crock of BS. She got the reviews of her life for Still Alice. People are leaving the cinema in tears , she is that effective. Diminishing her possible win just because they might favor Pike or Witherspoon is really lame.
So what happened to Inherent Vice?
Vily, I’m expecting we’ll see the first trailer for Inherent Vice right around the time it premieres at the New York Film Festival next Saturday. I was hoping for earlier in the week rather than later, but the best insider info at the moment indicates that Paul Thomas Anderson wants the movie to screen for the first time publicly with minimal preconceived notions floating around in the heads of that festival audience. He’s done a great job keeping his baby under wraps thins long, so I’d be surprised at this point if we see any trailer before next weekend.
Naturally, since we’re all in the dark about Inherent Vice, it’s foolhardy and meaningless to be predicting it for anything. That’s why we’re not talking about it. What can we say that’s not pure idle speculation?
You guys, listen — If every single time Scorsese, Spielberg, The Coens, Clint Eastwood, Ron Howard, Paul Thomas Anderson, David Fincher, Stephen Daldry, and 10 other revered directors made a movie, that movie had to automatically be a Best Picture nominee, then how weird and, honestly, how fucking boring would that be?
Hitchcock certainly knew that he could have a happy fulfilling fruitful life and leave a legacy of 20 or maybe 25 towering works of art, and still rarely be nominated for an Oscar. Does anyone in his right mind think Hitchcock went to his grave wishing he won a Best Director Oscar? With all his fame and money and prestige and lifestyle and circle of friends and worldwide adoration, does anyone think Hitchcock didn’t have a fantastic exciting joyous life in spite of being forced to live for 69 years without a fucking Oscar?
“boo-hoo, poor-me, I don’t have an Oscar! I didn’t get an Oscar nomination!” – No sane person thinks that way. Especially no person who’s a millionaire and goes to work every day doing something they LOVE TO DO.
Hitchcock KNEW that not every movie he made was an automatic Oscar Lock. David Fincher knows that not every movie he makes is an Automatic Oscar Lock. Paul Thomas Anderson knows it. The Coens know it.
The only people who expect that every time they fart that they’re probably getting an Oscar nomination are Meryl Streep and Clint Eastwood. And honestly, Clint and Meryl are probably just as bewildered and amused by that as we all should be. I’d wager big money that’s is not their mentality. If I thought they really think they deserve automatic consideration for the highest honor in Hollywood every time they make a movie, then I would feel pity for them, not respect.
We all know that we each have dozens of favorite beloved movies that never got any Oscar recognition. There again, if there are people in this world who think that every movie they adore has to get a Best Picture nomination or else Hollywood must be nothing but a crummy shit-factory, then I feel concern and sadness for that person, not admiration.
I’d never give a damn about the Oscars if every time Ron Howard or Clint Eastwood or the Coens announced a new movie then we instantly reserved a Best Director nomination for them. “Holy Cow! Check off that box, reserve that seat, fill that slot! Clint just said he’s planning to make a MUSICAL! Lockity Lock Lock!”
That does happen, way too often, and that’s how we end up with Best Director and Best Picture nominations for a flat stagey unimaginative thing like Frost/Nixon, and no BD or BP nominations for Nolan and The Dark Knight the same year.
Maps to the Stars is a terrific movie. But it’s not an Oscar movie. So what?
Shutter Island is a thrilling movie. But it’s not an Oscar movie. So what?
Fight Club is a work of genius. But it’s not an Oscar movie. So what?
yes, we all want to see our favorite filmmakers win prizes. And of course many of them love to receive trophies whenever they do. Bound to be fun and gratifying.
But when they don’t? So what? They’re still millionaires. They’re still creating art that will last for decades and be admired by millions of movielovers. They’re still working in one of the coolest most exciting careers humans have ever dreamed up as a career.
This annual Oscar pageant is a fun way to attract attention to movies. It’s a great way to get people (like us) talking about the reasons we love the movies that entertain us, thrill us, make us think.
But the Oscars are not the pot of gold at the end of the industry rainbow. The movies themselves are that pot of gold.
I saw Wild and Birdman and I honestly don’t see why ‘experts’ on Gold Derby have been predicting Stone and Dern above others. From what I’ve seen it wasn’t an impressive turn at all for both – and to assure myself, they aren’t even mentioned at all in reviews, and i read ALL. I noticed that in your predictions you don’t seem too keen on them as well, Sasha – I know we all differ in opinion, and Supporting Actress has many candidates but with few guarantees and more to be seen, but why do you think these people from Gold Derby are putting so much faith in them? I just don’t see it. It’s baffling me.
It seems to me that most people think The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game will get nominated not because they are good movies but because they are “oscar movies”.
“Anyone who doesn’t choose the best films of the year for Best Picture, regardless of their content, probably shouldn’t be in the business of choosing best of the year.”
….in a perfect world certainly, the problem is that people of the AMPAS are not as smart as you are Sasha, moreover they haven’t got your taste, basically because they are not you Sasha ! …..too bad !
The thing no one ever brings up is that the entire Indie Generation that emerged in the nineties has been pretty much ignored by the academy, which has led to a massive backup of recognition. Tarantino, Linklater, Anderson, Anderson, Russell and their Hollywood contemporary Fincher have put out 20 years worth of landmark American films but have never won. Add to that some of the later indie graduates (Nolan, Aronofsky, etc.) and you wonder how they’re ever going to get it done.
So what happened to Inherent Vice? Not good enough? Or pushed to next year?
Haven’t heard anything about it yet so I would not know where to put it on that list.
Just finished The Prince of Salt and hahahahahaha you guys have no idea, let be categorical, no idea what’s in store for us next year!
“But I think the one force that drives most pundits is fear. They don’t want to go out on a limb and look silly. So they adhere to a (small) herd mentality and pick the same stuff everyone else is picking. That’s why I think The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything are so high on everyone’s lists. Everyone has them, you’d look stupid not to include them.”
Pretty much this. I also think that many voters vote for what they think others vote for and not necessarily what they personally like the best. Heard mentality.
Antoinette, you are right, if the pundits chose to put movies on their lists, people would take notice. I don’t think The Fugitive could get a nomination these days simply because no pundit would have put it on their lists because it didn’t fit their idea of an Oscar film. Instead, they would have put on The Joy Luck Club (a movie I much prefer) since that fits the profile.
But I think the one force that drives most pundits is fear. They don’t want to go out on a limb and look silly. So they adhere to a (small) herd mentality and pick the same stuff everyone else is picking. That’s why I think The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything are so high on everyone’s lists. Everyone has them, you’d look stupid not to include them.
“They don’t seem to like those as much anymore. ”
Wrong! They like them very much but they are forced into awarding non-epic movies because every time there’s an epic in contention blogsphere ignites a backlash with their David vs Goliath bullshit. First there was THL vs Avatar and ex wife vs ex hubby bullshit that robbed Inglorious Bastards of its deserved win (and yes, IB was epic on many levels too). Then there was 12YS vs Gravity that literally said “if you don’t vote 12YS you are racist”. I mean, what can a voter do when faced with such blackmail? So lets say Interstellar is the movie to beat and defenders of small cinema want Boyhood or another human rights political correctness to win. They’ll find a way to smear Interstellar, make AMPAS feel embarrassed if they pick it. Or Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. or any other epic movie. It isn’t that AMPAS doesn’t like them, it’s that Oscar watchers and media tell them they shouldn’t.
BTW, so happy that Bigelow was snubbed and became a complete non-factor while Affleck took the spotlight, and that Lupiturd is now playing only fifth banana to total newbie Daisey Ridley in Star Wars. Karma’s a bitch.
I had to skip some in case of spoilers. (I haven’t seen GONE GIRL yet, obviously, and have managed to keep myself completely ignorant of it. I’d like to see this year’s movies without knowing anything about them if I can.) But I do think there used to be an “Oscar movie”. I used to be good at picking them out mainly because I liked them too. I used to agree with the Academy all the time back then. But they’ve changed. In the last decade they’ve chosen a lot of BPs that make me shake my head. I think where we split was on epic movies. I still kinda think epic movies should get extra credit. They don’t seem to like those as much anymore. So if it were up to me there’s no way DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES wouldn’t be in the hunt. And I still think any pundit who wanted it to be could make it so just by putting it on their list. It’s still September. Nobody knows what’s going on unless the pundits tell them. We have to believe it since we’re not going to know the truth until maybe January or later.
Vily, it hasn’t premiered yet…only another week or so. It’s my most anticipated of the year but I also think it’s one of the biggest wildcards of the whole race. I almost prefer the silent treatment until it premiers so nothing is jinxed…
So what happened to Inherent Vice? Not good enough? Or pushed to next year?
Mac, my apologies. I didn’t realize you ONLY meant actresses in their 50s. I thought you meant 50s and older. My point was that careers for women can still thrive after a certain age and those who won in the past, many of them, deserved their wins.
Dismiss Fatal Attraction all you want. It was a well made film and I don’t believe it would have worked near as well had Glenn Close not been likable in a possibly uncomfortable way. I felt for her. And she should have won best actress that year. I see why the comparison is coming up and Gone Girl may fall short. Having read Gone Girl I did not like either husband or wife so it will be interesting for me to see how it plays once I see it. For me I have to care about a character which does not mean they have to be good cause I can easily get into the badness like Willem Dafoe in To Live and Die in LA or Anjelica Huston in The Grifters but Gone Girl could be that movie where I lose interest. I know enough self-centered uninteresting people to not want to spend two hours in the dark watching portrayals of them. In the book they deserve each other if even that and by the end they both could have been killed off and it would not have mattered an iota.
thanks for Phoebe. her bows in front of that mirror with the Sarah Siddons award and Alfred Newman’s music make it one of my favorite endings of all time.
Birdman and Tree of Life are similar because neither has mass appeal, both (if my perception of Birdman is true) appeal to a narrow slice of the academy membership. A slice, if you will, that appreciates quality filmmaking that isn’t considered widely accessible. The comparison ends there. I’ve no interest in predicting the crafts fields at this or any point. But I agree with Kane, to dismiss The Tree of Life’s craftsmanship is a bit off. I’d even argue that the visual effects of The Tree of Life deserved a nomination, but they were probably never considered because it didn’t consist of explosions or cute talking pigs (oddly used dinosaur not withstanding.)
In other words, every year one or two films get in that are considered arthouse fare. Whether it be Amour, The Tree of Life, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Her, or Nebraska in the past three years this voting system has been in place. Now some may consider Boyhood to be in this group, others may not. But Birdman is in. And I will properly assign it the (trademarked) The Tree of Life Slot. (Boyhood, if allowed a second theatrical release come January will double its box office putting it in the 50 Millionish category, way too much for that slot – although the studio behind it might decide to rake in the PPV dollars instead.) Not to mention Boyhood has an actual shot at winning and Birdman realistically does not.
Correction, I mean there has only been ONE fifty something winner (Shirley Booth). Moore would be #2.
No Kane, there have only been two. I’m not sure what the rest of your comment has to do with what I wrote.
Benutty, though I was ecstatic with Tree of Life getting 3 nominations, it could have gotten nominations for original screenplay, supporting actor and actress, best sound mixing and best sound editing. Like Birdman, Tree of Life is a crafts category masterpiece that will be considered in as many fields.
Rufus, I’m confused by your assessment that Birdman is like Tree of Life in, well, any way. What Tree of Life captured with The Academy is that it was a viable candidate in only a few categories and therefore only got a few nominations. The only film this year that is in a similar state is not Birdman–it’s Boyhood. Birdman will get MANY nominations and contend for the win because of it, as all highly nominated films do and sparsely nominated films don’t.
Mac, there have been more than 2. Meryl Streep, Geraldine Page, Jessica Tandy, Helen Mirren and Hepburn. But how can any of the other winners be argued against? Marlee Matlin (the youngest winner), Jodie Foster (both times) Hillary Swank for Boys Don’t Cry, Holly Hunter, Cate Blanchett, Kathy Bates, Diane Keaton, Sissy Spacek, Shirley MacLaine, the list of deserving winners in the past goes on and on. Not to say there isn’t a bias but the majority of winners have been deserving to say the least.
Sasha, or Ryan, with the changes ending in Gone Girl I am wondering if it’s better to go into the movie blind or to read the book first. Thoughts? I’m just wondering of its more surprising to watch something I know nothing about or to watch something (after having read the book) THINKING I know how it’s going to end…oy I just wanna see this gem now!
I don’t get that Gone Girl is like Fatal Attraction either. Both have amazing female antagonists and the films are thrillers, but Feinberg is painting in broad strokes to connect the two. He could fit Misery, The Manchurian Candidate and Double Indemnity under that umbrella.
Watch out for the biopic. Since the turn of the millennium the Academy has rewarded so many of them with the big awards. Biopics allow the Academy to justify difficult or hokey material. This can be great (12 Years), but typically it produces bad to mediocre results (A Beautiful Mind, Dallas Buyers Club, The Blind Side, The Pianist). It seems original material like Gone Girl, with its twists and outsized characters, may be construed as whimsical by the Academy, but I think Fincher’s name will help to raise its stature. If it were “based on true events”, then it would be red-hot right now.
Can you just imagine that if Julianne Moore wins Best Actress, it would be only the SECOND time a fifty something year old actress has won the award. There have been three Best Actress winners that hadn’t even reached the age of 23 when they won! It seems like a weird statistic, but it’s a telling one. The fifties must represent some sort of dead period in a woman’s life. However, if a great actress can make it through these doldrums, she may have a chance at nabbing the prize. There have been eight winner’s aged 60+, although three of them were named Katherine Hepburn. Good luck Julianne, however may the best woman win.
I feel very strange, being a frequenter of both this and Clayton’s site–in fact, I won a copy of Gone Girl on a contest at that site, and having read it, am eagerly awaiting the film, an eagerness which Sasha’s rave reaffirmed. Luckily, I am perversely nonpartisan, and will continue as the GDI that I have ever been.
Anyway…I think the Academy in recent years has done a pretty good job at opening up to films we previously assumed they would shy away from. Remember when people thought WOWS and Her wouldn’t get on? Or how about Django? Or The Tree of Life? I’m not saying they’ve opened up quite to the extent I would like–I still don’t see why there wasn’t room for James Franco in the Supporting Actor race last year–but I think they are getting better. And I think Gone Girl will be nominated for Best Picture. (I also don’t think Julianne Moore is winning for Best Actress–Pike and Amy Adams, I think, have much better chances–but I seem to be fairly alone in that regard)
I’ll say it, Gone Girl is a Beach Read. It’s an awesome Beach Read, a marvelously well constructed, complex beach read. But it’s still a beach read. I say this because it can be enjoyed at that level, nor is it overly long and you can readily finish it during a weekend at the beach. It’s not a dense read, it’s not something that forces you to contemplate every second, it’s not something that finds new layers of complexity every time you pick it up. It’s not David Foster Wallace, it’s not Michael Cunningham, it’s not Jennifer Egan, it’s not Joyce Carol Oates. It’s a great book that also happens to be a beach read. There’s nothing wrong with that. Everyone loves a great beach read.
Now setting my literary snobbiness aside. Here’s the way I see the race…
The four films we’ve seen that are in.
1) Boyhood. Sorry, no movie with a 99 Metacritic Score that’s in English and considered to be both accessible and profitable is going to be overlooked.
2) Birdman – We’re giving this film the The Tree of Life Spot (Trademarked) – Every year an innovative film that interests only a small percentage of the Academy gets in (the first of which, under this voting system, was The Tree of Life). I think this safely has that spot this year.
3) Foxcatcher. – They love Bennett Miller. He’s just the right mix of mass appeal and cinematic sophistication. His films make you feel smart, and yet they have big emotional appeal. Foxcatcher seems to be in this vein. So it’s in.
4) Gone Girl – If it flops at the box office, I will take this back. But it won’t. It will be a massive hit (the book is a phenomenon as a bestseller) and the Academy will recognize it since it it’s also a critical success.
Upcoming Films I think are IN.
5) Into the Woods – This is one of the two most accessible Sondheim musicals and it’s the one with the most mass appeal. It’s dark, complex and has a powerhouse final 30 minutes. There are some potential problems with the translation to film, and if that translation is clumsy, all bets are off. But this is beloved theater piece and if Hooper’s Les Miz can get it, I find it hard to believe this won’t get in.
6) Interstellar. I’m no fan of Nolan, but this one has the trendy McConaughey and rumor has it that it’s more emotional than Nolan’s other work. It could suck. But it probably won’t, so I’m guessing that it will likely be in.
7) Unbroken. Even if it’s terrible the hype for it is so intense. Like Gone Girl, the book is a remarkable success and I bet people will be putting this on their ballots sight unseen just because the expectations are so high. If Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close got a spot, this will too.
Alternate.
If we go to 8, I think Whiplash will get that spot. Because the film is about artistic endeavors which should resonate with many members of the Academy.
Beyond that, it’s a crapshoot. Notice I didn’t put in The Theory of Everything or The Imitation Game. I think it’s just silly to predict either film when neither has great reviews at this point to back it up. It wouldn’t surprise me if both miss out on the much predicted Best Actor nods for each. But these are the two films that might get that ninth spot (assuming there is one) if one of my 5-7 films totally miss the mark.
—————–
On a side note, I hope you caught (or will go out of your way to catch) Last Night’s Live from Lincoln Center. Lonny Price directed a truly masterful production of Sweeney Todd with two of the world’s great actresses, Emma Thompson and Audra McDonald. I’ve seen several productions of Sweeney Todd now and I didn’t think any new version could show we something new about the show. While not everything worked in this production, so much of it was phenomenal and I was wildly entertained for the 140 minute running time. While it’s obviously not eligible for Oscars, I will certainly wager a set of sharp razors that half of the Oscar Best Pic Field will suffer in comparison to the joys of this telecast. Do yourself a favor and find it and watch it.
Conversations about what movies to see over the corse of a year – 2,500
Conversations about which movies will get nominated by the AMPAS voters – 3,000
Movies I go see in the theater, or wait for on Blu-ray – 30
Days waiting for the next Oscar ceremony (since the last one) – 364
How I feel on Oscar night watching the envelopes open – Priceless
🙂
Winston, probably a lot of people grossly overestimate how many comments ever get deleted. Trust me, it hardly ever happens. The only time I delete an unacceptable comment is if that person is using abusive or hateful or cruel language.
As far as know (and in fact I DO know) there have only been 3 comments all month that we deleted for being abusive, hateful or cruel.
And please remember that we sometimes delete comments when one reader is being hateful or cruel toward another reader. It’s hardly ever because Sasha or I get butthurt. Heck, you all know me. I’d rather slap down cruelty publicly rather than help discretely hide some jerk’s reckless cruelty.
Lots of times we leave a disagreeable comment hang out here for everyone else to see. For me, that’s a more effective way to create a civil and amiable community on the discussion pages. Because it allows all the readers to see the ugliness we sometimes deal with, and many of you are willing to help us slap it down.
But I’ll tell you what though, Winston… You come close to crossing the line when you call someone an ‘ASSHOLE.’ Nothing that transpired here today should provoke that kind of language, right? (at least not in ALL CAPS)
but for some reason I feel like allowing it.
🙂
Sasha, how come you didn’t delete Clayton’s comments? I thought ASSHOLES like him should get deleted? 😉
Even if Rosamund Pike has great reviews for ‘Gone Girl’, which will surely result in a nomination, I can’t help but think it will be near impossible for any other contender to stop Julianne Moore’s “overdue” narrative (because while quality of performance is looked at by voters other factors come into play in determining who they should vote for). I think another contender only wins the ‘Best Actress’ category if their performance is considered “undeniable” like Cate Blanchett in ‘Blue Jasmine’ or Hilary Swank in ‘Million Dollar Baby’.
And, on Hilary Swank, I hope she lands a nomination but have a feeling she may miss our due to the category being occupied by Witherspoon, Pike, Moore, Jones and Adams. I think that Swank for ‘Homesman’ and likely Chastain for ‘A Most Violent Year’ have a chance, so we’ll see how it unfolds.
“…it’s math. With 5 nominees, roughly 20% of voters need to like a movie for it to be nominated.”
Before some genuine math wizard like Rob Y comes along to refine what I wrote, let me amend that.
20% of voter support required for nomination is a baseline that applies only if all 5 nominees get equal support. But we know intuitively that equal support for all 5 nominees would never happen.
So the actual number for the 5th nominee could be much much lower than 20%.
Hypothetical example:
22% support All the President’s Men
6% support Bound for Glory
20% support Network
22% support Rocky
15% support Taxi Driver
15% support various other movies but none of those movies exceed the amount of support that Bound for Glory got.
===
100%
(simplified scenario for the purposes of concise mini-rant)
so see? even in the golden age of the ’70s, a relatively obscure and seemingly unlikely Best Picture nominee could get a Best Picture nomination with only 6% of the Academy supporting it — “passionately” or not. All that was required for Bound for Glory to be nominated in this situation is for 360 individual Oscar voters to choose it as their favorite movie of the year.
“passion” doesn’t really enter in to it. It’s romantic to think that way, but really all that’s needed is for a few hundred voters to choose ANY movie as their #1 pick — and if their numbers happen to exceed a mathematical threshold, then their little movie gets honored with a nomination.
We all need to stop thinking that this system is mysterious or that the minds of Oscar voters are unfathomable.
COMMON SENSE FACT: DIFFERENT TYPES OF PEOPLE LIKE DIFFERENT TYPES OF MOVIES.
Just because most of us snots here at AD don’t think much of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, we have to remember that it only takes 300 or 400 Academy members to choose ANY movie as their #1 favorite, and that’s usually enough to secure a BP nomination.
You think that’s wacky, consider (for example) how FEW Actual Individual People it takes to get a Best Costume Design nomination. It could be that as few as 20 or 30 voters in the Costume Branch are enough to secure a nomination in that category.
I”be seen Wild not good enough for best picture. Witherspoon does deserve a best actress nomination.
Oops, I forgot…..hey Sasha, what about JC Chandor’s A MOST VIOLENT YEAR? Or did I miss something
I know this has been said in this thread before….but I just had to say….Gone Girl a BEACH READ???? WTF??!! If I start, I may scratch my scalp over that one until it bleeds…..
I had completely forgotten…..or, even worse, missed that you had seen Whiplash, Sasha. I’m going to have to go back and review older entries….
I think Tapley said this about the race last year, that if a film has enough passion despite being weird or off putting to some viewers, it can still get in with enough support.
yes, Tapley and everybody else who knows anything about the Oscars has said that every year since 1935. In fact, you don’t even need to know anything about the Oscars to say that. You only have to understand how voting works for anything.
It’s math. With 5 nominees, roughly 20% of voters need to like a movie for it to be nominated. With 10 nominees, roughly 10% of the Academy needs to like a movie (although preferential balloting shifts the odds just a little.)
translated into a concrete example in mathematical terms:
10% of the Academy can feel passionately about Tree of Life even if 90% of the Academy find it weird or off-putting, and those 10% of the Academy (approx 600 individual voters) are enough to push ANY fringe movie to a Best Picture nomination.
But unless the other 90% of the Academy can then be convinced to reassess how they feel about Tree of Life, the 600 voters who love it passionately are not nearly enough to carry it to a win.
“war is a drug” was very dark and hardly a crowd-pleaser. The exception that proves the rule?
I think Tapley said this about the race last year, that if a film has enough passion despite being weird or off putting to some viewers, it can still get in with enough support. Winning is another story. Divisive films don’t win, but they do sometimes get in and with anywhere from 5-10 nominees, I can see this getting in. Assuming the reviews stay in the area they are now, it will be generally well received. If the bestseller was a hit, I don’t see why the film couldn’t make steady money over the next month. It has that anticipation and buzz going for it based on a bestseller. It’s a studio picture and the Academy probably loves the idea that studio system is still best outlet for satisfying films. I don’t know if I agree that the Academy loves Fincher, but there’s plenty of support for him in the same way you can hear the admiration in rooms for people like PTA, Nolan, Aronofsky, Cuaron, Coens, etc. Even if we’re going on the actors branch with the Academy, he’s well liked by actors enough. His last 3 films have garnered 4 acting nominations all together. Pike seems likely. Affleck in lesser tighter year would probably have a shot. Maybe he still does. Can’t imagine an actor who wouldn’t want to work with him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4ACtU2S3Lw
Yes Robin, Clayton’s site is [edit: google it – Ryan] – several months ago we needed to stop him from continuing to come here and refer [edit: refer? link. repeatedly. it was a constant “click me!” banner ad. – Ryan] to his site in his comments continually because it was starting to look like spam. But you might like what they do over there. Generally speaking, there are two schools of Oscar watching. The kind that plays the race like a game (Awards Circuit, Gold Derby, etc.) and the kind that has been doing it so long the game no longer interests them and they are much more interested in the best films and performances getting recognized – that’s my site, Jeff’s site, David’s site, etc.
You are saying its our opinions but in your very article, you’re saying that Feinberg is “wrong.”
Nope. I’m saying asking the question itself is wrong. It is asked often by lots of people. To my mind it has rarely been proven correct except in extreme cases. To repeat, ad nauseum: the question that should be asked is is it a good enough film.
Chris – totally forgot Foxcatcher – I’m an idiot. Fixing. Thanks.
“But films that are coming down the pike that could derail any of these”
Was this a Rosamund pun? 😀
@Clayton Davis, I honestly did not know you had your own site. Either I was not paying attention or your site has never made an impression on my radar. I’ll be keeping a close eye out now though. Take that how you will.
.
On the subject of Oscar-movieness I would like to give a special mention to the thriller The Fugitive. To me, this has always been a surprise Best Picture choice. I am not saying unwarranted, I am saying a surprise. Especially then, 1993. And when there were only five slots. Philadelphia, The Age Of Innocence and Shadowlands were all big contenders then. And if I remember correctly Searching For Bobby Fischer, Fearless, and Sleepless In Seattle were being talked about too. All Oscary {I’m just creating all kinds of words we can use now}, but none made Picture or Director. In The Line Of Fire was certainly on a par with The Fugitive in regards to genre and likeability. There were other movies that might not be considered Oscar movies that were excellent too. Short Cuts managed a Director nod {Andrew Davis did not}. What’s Love Got to Do with It landed nominations in both Lead categories, which I believe at the time was a refreshing surprise too. And Naked, well, they ignored that altogether.
And Sasha, not to pester you again with this but clicking on your Twitter link in the About The Author section links to this:
https://twitter.com/http://www.facebook.com/awardsdaily
You need to remove:
http://www.facebook.com/
Gone girl, have not seen it yet is sure to be nominated for best picture, best director and best adapted screenplay, best actress, best film editing, best score, best cinematography, best sound mixing
I would at least think it would be on the list of most likely films to be nominated as of now. I wouldn’t begin to suggest it belongs on your favorites list, but that movie seems like a sure shot nominee pre NYFF.
I respect your opinion but to tell us that Feinberg is “wrong” in his assessment is a bit premature, on anyone’s part. I didn’t like “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and did not expect it to land with PGA, DGA, and WGA.
Thanks for showing us what “wrong” looks like. Excellent example.
Completely missing Foxcatcher from any of those lists, eh?
Whoah…Gone Girl – the novel, the source material – is fucking brilliant and a complete breath of fresh air, it is also a CRITICALLY ACCLAIMED international bestseller. Calling it a ‘beach read’ is ridiculously ignorant. I usually enjoy the impressive statsorgyesque Feinberg pieces but he is way off on this one.
As always, it looks as though you ran to a completely other place that no one else brought it. I was not “lecturing” you. I was responding to your article. If you feel you are being “condescended” to, I don’t know what to tell you.
You are saying its our opinions but in your very article, you’re saying that Feinberg is “wrong.” I was simply telling you, I don’t see it as simple as Scott put it but not as extremely different as you were putting it.
I didn’t like “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and did not expect it to land with PGA, DGA, and WGA.
That just shows how differently we think. In all respects.
And p.s. I’m not criticizing Scott – I went out of my way not to do so.
Clayton you are not really someone who should be lecturing me about anything. Not the film Gone Girl, not Academy history, not Feinberg’s intent. In fact, you have your own WHOLE SITE where you can feel free to go and on about Gone Girl to your heart’s content. The fact is, I’ve been doing this a very very long time and I don’t appreciate being condescended to at every turn. Please do not presume to lecture me about the Academy. Your opinion is your opinion. The mansplaining can be checked at the door.
Sasha,
I know we’ve disagreed a lot in the past but I had to comment on what was said above.
You are criticizing Feinberg for doing his job, and looking at the Oscar race for what it is. While I do agree with you to some extent that (for the most part) is no such thing as something being “too dark” or “too sappy” or “too unconventional” anymore, there are obvious things that WE ALL KNOW won’t get love no matter how good it is. Case in point, “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.” Great film, one of the year’s best films, but in no way am I kidding myself in thinking that it’s “in the hunt.”
When regarding films about women, and the example he brings up with “Fatal Attraction,” there are obvious similarities, it’s just not as simple as women who torment their men. I felt like the film resembled elements of “Psycho” and “The Silence of the Lambs” at times. They just felt like distant cousins in some respects. It’s a horror-thriller. Based on the Academy’s history, we don’t see that too often.
In regards to the film’s flaws, there are some, many of which will bother people a lot. Fincher has a technical merit that cannot be denied, and Flynn constructs a strong script, meticulous and rich in parts. There are some times when things don’t land.
I respect your opinion but to tell us that Feinberg is “wrong” in his assessment is a bit premature, on anyone’s part. I didn’t like “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and did not expect it to land with PGA, DGA, and WGA. “Gone Girl” is much better but could even have a worse showing in spite of that. I can see Actress and Adapted Screenplay and that’s it. There’s also a narrative where it finds its way in Picture, Director, Film Editing, Score, Cinematography. There’s still many things left.
Just wanted to share my thoughts.