Every year after Telluride there is the sense that bigger, better movies could still come along that might overtake the race. I remember this most profoundly in 2012 when Argo came, was very popular at Telluride but didn’t really pick up its major Best Picture heat until the one-two punch of Affleck and Argo winning the Golden Globes and Critics Choice just as Ben Affleck received his Best Director snub. That the movie wonlo those two significant awards could have meant the movie was destined to win no matter what. But the Globes aren’t the best or most reliable barometer to predict Best Picture, even if the Critics Choice often are. It was the Affleck snub that set up the much-needed narrative giving the film’s general likability a much-needed sense of urgency. That was also the first time the Oscar ballots for Best Director were turned in before the DGA announced. Last year and this year will also see that same scheduling shift but the Affleck snub was perhaps one of the most surprising things I’ve ever seen happen at the Oscars. It ended up having a profound effect on how the Oscar voting is conducted, because now it doesn’t seem out of the ordinary to split Picture and Director. Now we can look at a movie like Birdman and comfortably say “it could win Best Director even if it doesn’t win Best Picture.” The unity of picture and director has been severed both by Affleck’s snub, and by the number of Best Picture entries compared to the smaller number of entries for Best Director.
Remember, from 1931-1943, back when the Academy had more than five Best Picture nominees, the only film that ever won Best Picture without the director at least being nominated, was Grand Hotel — a situation so strange in retrospect it looks like a slip-up. So it was highly unusual that Affleck carried his film to such a successful win without getting a director nomination, or perhaps because of the lack of the best director nomination. Either way, in 2012, after Telluride, Argo was mostly regarded as a well-liked film but not the one everyone was thinking would win Best Picture.
Now we find ourselves at the end of Telluride with a similar dynamic in play. Everyone is looking forward to the upcoming films that haven’t yet been seen — Fury, Gone Girl, Unbroken, Men, Women & Children, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Inherent Vice. Telluride, right now, feels like it always does when it ends. Somehow though, in recent years, the eventual Best Picture winner does turn out to be a film that was seen in Telluride — just not overhyped or overpraised, thus making it a target.
Even still, I can’t say there was any film I saw this week that seems like the winner. We don’t know how it will all play out. We don’t know what combination of films will barrel toward the finish line, so we can’t see which one isn’t like the others. Not yet.
The actors have to like it. Oldish people have to like it. It has to have “gravitas” to win. Directors have to respect it. You have to be able to sit anyone down in front of it and they will get it, if not love it. It has to be a movie that isn’t divisive. In an era of bravura filmmaking and risk taking that usually leaves the winning film to the most conventional, at least these days, perhaps unless they go back to five.
Still, in order for a film like The Imitation Game to win — right now the only movie that played here that seems like it has the stuff — the other movies upcoming will have to stumble. That sometimes happens when expectations are raised too high — thus backlash takes hold. It’s hard for a movie like The Imitation Game to attract backlash because no one is really expecting it to win. That gives the film a huge advantage over the films that have to carry the frontrunner albatross. It is also the one movie no one is going to hate. And that is often what defines a modern Best Picture winner in the era where everyone has a voice, a twitter, a tumblr, etc. Big Oscar Movies are often attacked simply because they seem like a movie that could win.
The Imitation Game backlash would only then come from those who perceive it as Oscar bait, an attitude I’ve seen already crop up on Twitter.
Your three best bets for Best Picture out of Telluride:
The Imitation Game
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Beyond Best Picture, though, what else took hold? In the Best Actress race, Reese Witherspoon and Hilary Swank emerged strong for Best Actress contention. They are putting themselves out there early and both came to Telluride to help promote their films.
Benedict Cumberbatch, Steve Carell and Michael Keaton are the three strongest Best Actor contenders right now.
Mommy, Leviathan, Wild Tales all came out of Cannes and all seem to be very promising in the Best Foreign Language category.
Other performances that remain standouts would include Laure Dern, a supporting contender for Wild, Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher, though Best Actor is already so crowded it’s likely only Carrel will get in. Mark Ruffalo will have a place in line for supporting for Foxcatcher. Keira Knightley is a strong bet for supporting for The Imitation Game, along with Emma Stone for Birdman.
The Imitation Game is the only film that really popped exclusively here in Telluride, being seen for the first time as Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Slumdog Millionaire and The King’s Speech all had been. Birdman was a Venice get already and landed at Telluride with extremely high praise to live up to.
With The Imitation Game here in Telluride we have our introductory sentence to the longer piece that will be written about this year. As it always is with the Labor Day end to the festival it feels like the best is yet to come. What is coming is the unknown. We don’t know how things will shake down. We wait. We wait.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Mommy, Leviathan, Wild Tales all came out of Cannes and all seem to be very promising in the Best Foreign Language category.
Russia hasn’t yet announced its submission, but I expect it will not be Leviathan.
Best Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Fury
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
Best Director
Aya DuVery for Selma
Alejandre Gonzalez Innaritu for Birdman
Angelina Jolie for Unbroken
Richard Linklater for Boyhood*
Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
Best Actor
Steve Carrell in Foxcatcher
Ellar Coltrane in Boyhood
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
Micheal Keaton in Birdman*
David Oyelowo in Selma
Best Actress
Amy Adams in Big Eyes 2 Nomination
Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
Meryl Streep in Into the Woods
Reese Witherspoon in Wild* 1 Nomination
Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
Edward Norton in Birdman
Tim Roth in Selma
Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
J.K Simmons in Whiplash 1 Nomination
`
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Emily Blunt in Into the Woods
Carmen Ejogo in Selma
Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game
Emma Stone in Birdman
Best Foreign Language Film
Leviathan from Russia 1 Nomination
Mommy from Canada 1 Nomination
Two Days One Night from Belgium 1 Nomination
Wild Tales 1 Nomination
The Wonders from Italy 1 Nomination
Best Documentary Feature
The Case Against 8 1 Nomination
The Green Prince 1 Nomination
Life Itself* 1 Nomination
Rich Hill 1 Nomination
20,000 Days on Earth 1 Nomination
Best Animated Feature
Big Hero 6 1 Nomination
How to Train Your Dragon 2 2 Nominations
The Lego Movie 2 Nominations
The Tale of The Princess Kuyaga 1 Nomination
Song of the Sea 1 Nomination
Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Mr. Turner 1 Nomination
Adapted Screenplay
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel 3 Nominations
Inherent Vice
Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Costume Design
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 Nominations
The Imitation Game
Maleficent
Cinematography
Roger Deakins for Unbroken
Hoyt Van Hoytema for Interstellar
Emmanuel Lubeski for Birdman
Boyhood
Bradford Young for Selma
Production Design
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Grand Budapest Hotel*
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Film Editing
Birdman
Boyhood*
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Unbroken
Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 3 Nominations
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies*
Interstellar
Noah
Makeup and Hair Styling
Exodus: Gods and Kings
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Into the Woods
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat for Unbroken
Danny Elfman for Big Eyes
Jonah Johansson for The Theory of Everything
Antonio Sanchez for Birdman
Rob Simonsen for Foxcatcher
Original Song
“Lost Stars” from Begin Again 1 Nomination
“The Boxtrolls Song” from The Boxtrolls 1 Nomination
“When Stars Among Us” from How to Train Your Dragon 2
“Everything is Awesome from The Lego Movie*
“Something’s So Right from Muppets Most Wanted 1 Nomination
Sound Mixing
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Fury*
Godzilla 1 Nomination
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Sound Editing
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Fury*
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Into the Woods
This site and others keep mentioning Leviathan as a Best Foreign Language Film possibility. That seems wishful thinking to me.
Maybe I’m wrong, but what are the chances that some film committee in Russia picks a film that exposes corruption within the Russian government?! That seems like a sure way to earn a stint in the gulag.
Great reply, Rufus. I’ll have to give the trailer another go-around!
I’ve written a lot, Kane, about why I think Into the Woods is different, so I’ll keepit brief here.
The songs are better integrated into the story and characters, therefore it feels less like a traditional musical. The songs are brief and to the point and propel the story forward rather than slowing down the story.
It’s a pretty cinematic play not too reliant on theatrical devices so adapting it should go a little more smoothly.
But mostly it’s a more intellectual and complex muscal than othe recent adaptions. There’s a lot of thematic meat on the bones of the show. There are emotional highs and lows that have true impact. Sasha and others often speak of Oscar films. Well this is an Oscar film, complex enough to grab people’s attention but not enough to alienate them. And it will make them feel.
And then when I saw the trailer and it was clear that they spent a ton of money to make everything look great, I figured it would be a contender in the tech categories as well.
I think people will be surprised at how good this movie will be, its not your traditional musical. And with Rob Marsall, a man who understands the musical genre, directing it I think we have a winner.
Benutty, Interstellar has been talked about on this site. Nolan is the reason I went to film school, he’s one of my all time favorite directors, but to say this film owns the race is to prematurely call the Oscar race especially when other effects-driven films have been so critically acclaimed this year. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and Guardians of the Galaxy were top notch efforts. Sure maybe not best picture/director/screenplay worthy but certainly in the tech categories. Also take into account this is a very busy year for great films. There’s a lot of good shit to cover and Sasha and Ryan have been doing just that, especially Sasha covering what she’s witnessed at Telluride. Give it time…come fall Interstellar will be on everyones minds.
Rufus, I’ve never been much of a theater person, despite having done theater in high school, so I have never seen Into the Woods. I know Marshall knocked Chicago out of the park but look at all the other musicals made into films since then: Mamma Mia!, Hairspray, Phantom of the Opera and Rent. They were all extremely acclaimed plays that barely made a thud in the awards race. Marhsall’s own Nine and Les Mis, while getting nominations/wins didn’t quite bring down the house like predicted. Since I haven’t seen Into the Woods and not even read up on it, and I’m asking this out of pure curiosity with truly no snark intended, what makes Into the Woods different from the other musicals? The sheer enthusiasm you and Bryce share for this adaptation is making me look forward to it a bit more than I was yesterday.
Interstellar still easily owns this race and no one is talking about it.
Aside from awesome trailers and an awesome cast, Interstellar is the next step in a lengthening path of IMAX/3D, visual masterpieces scoring big with The Academy. Starting 5 years ago when the 10 Best Picture nominee rule happened, visual marvel films have slowly, but steadily built momentum toward owning the Oscars–it will all culminate this year with Interstellar.
2010: Avatar – 9 nominations, 3 wins (visual effects, cinematography, art direction)
2011: Inception – 8 nominations, 4 wins MOST TIE (visual effects, cinematography, both sound)
2012: Hugo – 11 nominations, 5 wins MOST TIE (visual effects, cinemtography, art direction, both sound)
2013: Life of Pi – 11 nominations, 4 wins MOST (visual effects, cinematography, score, director)
2014: Gravity – 10 nominations, 7 wins MOST (visual effects, cinematography, score, director, both sound, editing)
Unless you want to argue that Interstellar isn’t the visual marvel film of 2015–and I suppose an argument could be made that it will be Into the Woods instead–it is hard to argue that it isn’t the frontrunner for the same categories that all of these past winners have taken–visual effects, cinematography, and both sounds are probably locked. Score, Director and Editing shouldn’t be underestimated. If it gets nominations in all these categories that is 7, and a Best Picture nomination would be 8. You can probably add in Production Design and Screenplay, too. That would be 10–on par with the last 3 visual films. Films with that many nominations are rarely not one of the top 2 or 3 contenders to actually win Best Picture–Avatar, Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi and Gravity were all (and this cannot be argued) viable candidates for the Best Picture win. It’s only a matter of time before the Oscar goes to this kind of film.
So are we just giving up on American Sniper then? I was never particularly optimistic, but it seemed like everyone was going big for it for a second there.
As for Into the Woods, having seen the show twice, I confess I’ve never quite gotten the hype. I think it’s enjoyable, it’s got some good songs, and it’s got a clever conceit, but I feel like the whole “subversion of the happy ending” angle is more of a gimmick than a real dramatic engine. So I think it’ll be a solid film, but a major Oscar contender? I’d tap the brakes on that.
For that matter, if Imitation Game gets anything besides a nod for Cumberbatch and maybe a couple of tech noms, I’ll be surprised (unless the rest of the as-yet-unseen contenders just tank).
LIz, I agree, I am not sold on the film adaptation of Gone Girl. I think the film will be dismissed as a high quality mystery/suspense thriller. Not since Silence of the Lambs has a film in that genre been taken seriously by the Academy.
But then, if it’s a weak year like in 1991, you never know.
The book inspiring Gone Girl is a well built but average book. It keeps the tension but that’s all. I would be really surprised if the movie turned out to be super. Hadn’t ben Affleck – post Argo – been in ot, we wouldn’t even talk about it
I’m with Bryce, maybe not the record nominations but I think it might be the film to beat this year, with a few of the contenders kind of knocked out, it’s chances grew a percentage point or two.
First off, let’s discuss Adapted Screenplay – Yeah, musicals are not often noted for their scripts, but the stage play of Into the Woods is exceptionally well-written, the songs are great, but without the amazing book, they would fall more flat. Some of the most memorable moments of the show are spoken dialogue, and that’s rare for a musical. (I could give examples, but not sure if they would register here out of context) Now, of course, we don’t know what the movie will bring, and if they use the script almost word for word, should it deserve the nomination? Remember, the writers tossed Kenneth Branagh a nomination for an almost exact rendition of Hamlet in 1996(?) or so. In addition to the dialogue, the script offers a very complex (for a musical) interwoven plot as well. In other words, the spoken dialogue does more than just offer a bridge from song to song, it’s an integral part of the play’s greatness.
If Into the Woods hits big with the academy, I think it gets 4 acting nominations, Cordon, Streep, Blunt and hopefully Kendrick. Those are the four key parts and all of them are Academy friendly roles that get to show many facets of an actor’s abilities.
So 12 to 14 nominations is a high probability right now if the movie is very good. And if it sucks, oh well, we’ll always have the Original Broadway Cast performance that’s been captured on film, and dammit, that’s good enough for me (If you haven’t seen it, I really think you should if you care about predicting the Oscars this far out, it’s the one movie that’s not been seen that we know the most about simply because the stage production has been beautifully captured.
On a Sondheim/Emma Thompson sidenote. If you’ve never seen a stage production of Sweeney Todd, you will have the chance to see one on PBS later this September on a Live From Lincoln Center broadcast. I speak often about how Burton messed up the film version by cutting out all of the four-part harmonies from the show, therefore neutering arguably the best score of all time. Give this production a shot and judge for yourself if I’m right.
Well most of the winning movies didn’t have any of the listed characteristics.. Or are you telling me Shakespeare in love had these qualities?! It didn’t have any gravitas and everyone knew G.paltrow’s oscar was a robbery. “The actors have to like it. Oldish people have to like it. It has to have “gravitas” to win. Directors have to respect it. You have to be able to sit anyone down in front of it and they will get it, if not love it. It has to be a movie that isn’t divisive”. Without talking of tje meaningless space movies getting thousands of nominations over the years only because americans love them.
Bryce…I love you man…but that is a TALL order. A record number of nominations for Into the Woods? This isn’t just Into the Woods “leads with the most nominations out of any film this year” but actually “will get more nominations than any film ever, more so than Titanic”? Into the Woods would be eligible for, not including acting, 13 nominations. With acting, that number obviously sky rockets. This would assume that it’ll get in for screenplay and original song (which I’m not sure if there will be an original song). But hey, Chicago got 13 nominations under Rob Marshall so you never know. If this movie get at least 15 nominations, tell me a mailing address where I can send you 100 bucks.
omg you’ve lost your mind. The Imitation Game has no chance at even a NOMINATION for Best Picture. It’s just not a movie anyone is going to see, let alone build a swelling for. I can’t.
One quick question, is Benedict Cumberbatch going to steal the Oscar from Steve Carrell or what? I’m nervous. From the trailers, they book look so promising!
Oh and throw in Exodus into the last category as well.
It seems to me we have three distinct categories this year as far as the Oscar race goes. First, my personal top three films to see, Birdman, Gone Girl and Inherent Vice. These films are being touted as the front runners but could they be too dark/strange for the Academy? Then you have the true stories. These include Unbroken, The Theory of Everything, Imitation Game, Big Eyes, Wild, Foxcatcher, American Sniper. These films, as with most true stories (last years Dallas Buyers Club) could rack up the acting noms but can they end up getting more than that? Sometimes credibility hurts true story tales. And finally you have Interstellar and Into the Woods. These are big studio films that can either get 10 nominations or 0. There’s no telling. I don’t see Fury as any threat in the Oscar race. Sorry.
Joe, honestly bro I really think you need to re-evaluate your predictions.
Looking forward to all of these SO SO much. Ive read such good things about all of them. Since I feel like this year has been weaker, overall, thus far … Im salivating for this stuff.
Yeah, you are overthinking this Sasha. Correlation does not equal causation. Most members vote for their favorites with other considerations in mind maybe. Argo was going to win regardless. Based on coverage I’ve heard, Birdman is leading the pack.
Bryce…what makes you think Into the Woods is going to be THAT good? I would love it you are right, but when is the last time a LIVE ACTION Disney movie was a MAJOR player let alone WON the damned thing?
Kane, fwiw at the moment, I’m predicting INTO THE WOODS to be bigger a phenomenon than CHICAGO, score a record number of nominations, and win Best Picture. Yes, all based mostly on the teaser. Oscar will want Sondheim at the ceremony yes or yes.
In addition, INTO THE WOODS will take away BIRDMAN’s professed leads in the tech categories once it is unveiled.
Joe…like Chris and Murtaza said, Woodley and O’Connell are leads. Grand Budapest Hotel is an original script. Now to nitpick, Into the Woods for adapted screenplay contention? Musicals rarely get recognized for their writing unless it’s an original script. The Imitation Game for…everything? Bit of a stretch, especially for director. But I applaud some of the other choices made. J.K. Simmons for supporting actor, Marco Beltrami for original score, sound mixing for Gone Girl…interesting list you have.
My beat by nomation season that a film like Boyhood will be foregotten. Although it was a very good film I don’t see it have strength to get the nomtations in the Big Four.
Or for that matter, Jack O Connell in Unbroken? I was under the distinct impression he carries that film.
Joe, since when Woodley became a supporting role in fault in our stars?
New Oscar predictions post-tellride
Best picture
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Fury
Gone girl
The imitation game
Interstellar
Theory of everything
Wild
Director
Alejandro Gonzalez innaritu for birdman
Richard linklater for boyhood
Bennett miller for foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan for interstellar
Morton tyledum for the imitation game
Lead actor
Steve carrell in foxcatcher
Benedict cumberbatch in the imitation game
Ralph fiennes in the grand Budapest hotel
Michael Keaton in birdman
David oylewo in selma
Lead actress
Amy Adams in big eyes
Patricia arquette in boyhood
Rosamund pike in gone girl
Meryl streep in into the woods
Reese Witherspoon in wild
Supporting actor
Edward Norton in birdman
Jack O’Connell in unbroken
Mark ruffalo in foxcatcher
J.k. Simmons in whiplash
Changing Tatum in foxcatcher
Supporting actress
Emily blunt in into the woods
Laura dern in wild
Keira knightley in the imitation game
Emma stone in birdman
Shailene woodley in the fault in our stars
Adapted screenplay
Gone girl
The grand Budapest hotel
The imitation game
Into the woods
Wild
Original screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Selma
Animated feature
Big hero 6
The congress
How to train your dragon 2
The Lego movie
The tale of the princess kayuga
Foreign language film
Leviathan
Mommy
Two days one week
White god
The wonders
Documentary feature
The case against 8
The green prince
Life itself
Return to home
20,000 feet from earth
Original song
Begin again
The book of life
The fault in our stars
The Lego movie
Muppets most wanted
Original score
Marco beltrami- the Homesman
Alexandre desplat+ unbroken
Mycheal dyenna- foxcatcher
Steven price- Selma
Hans zimmer- interstellar
Film editing
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Fury
Interstellar
Sound editing
Dawn of the planet of the apes
Fury
Guardians of the galaxy
The hobbit the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Sound mixing
Dawn of the planet of the apes
Fury
Gone girl
The hobbit the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Visual effects
Dawn of the planet of the apes
Guardians of the galaxy
The hobbit the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Noah
Cinematography
Boyhood
Exodus: gods and kings
The grand Budapest hotel
Interstellar
Unbroken
Production design
Exodus: gods and kings
The grand Budapest hotel
The imitation game
Into the woods
Theory of everything
Costume design
Exodus: gods and kings
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the galaxy
The imitation game
Theory of everything
Makeup
Exodus: gods and kings
Guardians of the galaxy
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
I still think it and Theory of Everything could cancel each other out.
I’m no math wizard, but 0 + 1 do not cancel each other out. One of them is nothing and the other one is something.
I still think it and Theory of Everything could cancel each other out.
Highly unlikely as THEORY OF EVERYTHING looks right down awful
Yeah, I just don’t think The Imitation Game is going to go the distance. I still think it and Theory of Everything could cancel each other out. Right now, I’m fully rooting for Birdman to take four of the big five (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actor) and maybe Cinematography (though I want Deakins to win so badly). It could honestly come down to Cumberbatch vs. Keaton in the Best Actor race, and I’d unabashedly put my support behind Keaton.
Rooting for Laura Dern. Valuable player, often given poor roles by filmmakers other than Lynch or TV producers.