It’s gives too much away to note the irony in reporting the success of Birdman, one of the most clever films to come along in a good while. Don’t miss Kris Tapley’s piece, Give Keaton the Oscar, which serves as a reminder that sometimes it’s difficult to win Best Actor when you are someone who came from comedy. It’s the same old story every year – there is a kind of mental block when it comes to funny people who take on serious roles. Robin Williams was one exception, of course, but generally speaking, there continues to be carry-over from the old days where comedic actors can never be true thespians.
It should not come as a shock that Keaton is the frontrunner in the category, as his performance is one of the best of the year. Raves from critics, calling it the Best Performance of his career, is part of the job. The next part will likely be Keaton winning the early critics awards. Finally, if he wants to win and there is no indication that he does, he’ll have to “kiss babies.” Winning often requires lots and lots of publicity. Think: Jeff Bridges during Crazy Heart.
Either way, it appears to be so far a three man race with Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne competing for the win.
And full disclosure: no, I did not get one of those limited edition Birdman statues. I genuinely liked the film.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Hey Bryce, what’s so misguided about giving an opinion? I gotta be a robot all season?
Locks: Keaton, Cumberbatch and Redmayne
I really really hope that Ralph Fiennes get in because his fantastic turn in The Grand Budapest Hotel deserves all the awards in this world. I think he got the chance not that almost all of the potential nominees are heavily dramatic
Brad Pitt in Fury is for sure out of the race
Since I have a feeling Interstellar will be huge this year, I think Matthew McConaughey can surprise everyone and get a nomination.
About Foxcather, I believe Channing Tatum’s is the best performance of the whole film, even better than Carell’s. I have a hard time imagining how could they consider Tatum’s performance as supporting. He’s the main lead in this film. It would be a HUGE fraud to campain him in supporting category.
Having said that, I see Carell being Tom Hanks this year. He will be a lock until the last second, and then BAM, out. Well, someone has to be the Hanks. We have way too many people in contention. At the end of the day, I believe the 5 finalists in Actor will be the ones who have their films with bigger Best Picture buzz: Keaton, Cumberbatch, McConaughey, O’Connell and then Redmayne. Bradley Cooper will get one of these spots if American Sniper really happens.
OR (one final thought)
The buzz on Whiplash builds and builds and builds and it lands best picture and Miles Teller gets a Best Actor nod.
Then predictions are :
Carrell
Cumberbatch
Keaton
Redmayne
Teller
Redmayne and Cumberbatch have Best Picture crowdpleaser heat attached to them. Like Firth in The King’s Speech. They’re in.
Keaton is this year’s McConaughey and could win. He’s in too.
Being a competitive year, Carell’s film is cold (he’s vulnerable) and Spall isn’t as big of a star and who knows if he’ll do the campaign trail. Depends on how his film is perceived overall however. If it’s a major player – he’s in. If not – he’s vulnerable. Kinda like John Hawkes being left off as The Sessions wasn’t overall a bigger player and Washington, Day-Lewis, Cooper, Jackman, Pheonix had broader support. I also don’t think voters go – I can’t vote for three British actors! They just go with the movies they loved.
In terms of late bloomers like Bale and DiCaprio last year, it would seem only Cooper (who is on a streak; Eastwood is good at getting his actors in even without best picture heat – Changeling, Invictus – except for J Edgar), McConaughey (is it an acting showcase though?) and O’Connell have the broad big player to pull them in too. O’Connell is young and new so he’s shaky. Is he just the central male figure (like say Jeremy Irvine in War Horse) or is there real powerhouse acting to his performance? Selma is a smaller film releasing late and Oyelowo isn’t a household name. His performance would have to be a revelation.
It’s silly to predict sight unseen but I think we’re only really looking at :
In : Keaton, Cumberbatch, Redmayne
Final Two out of : Cooper, Carell, Spall
I’m gonna blindly guess Intersellar isn’t an acting showcase and O’Connell is more central male figure and Selma is too small, too late, but HAVE NO IDEA.
Foxcatcher will have a big campaign behind it and the actors have been everywhere since Cannes. Carell I will bet on a nomination now.
Then I have Cooper vs. Spall. Is American Sniper a major player? I’ll pretend it is.
Predictions :
Carell
Cooper
Cumberbatch
Keaton
Redmayne
Most likely wrong.
Don’t know about Birdman but Michael Keaton was great in Beetlejuice! Now that was something!
I’d be more inclined to support Timothy Spall this year, but I’m afraid there’s just too much competition for Mr. Turner to make a splash in America. Nonetheless, Bafta noms will be announced on the 2nd day of Oscar voting so if it’s big there it might encourage a late rally in its favor Oscar-wise.
the tang of aged testosterone, irresistible to the academy demographic…. and it’s about an old actor!
Clearly Keaton’s performance deserves a win, as do Cumberbatch and Redmayne’s performances. At this high level of quality it’s a matter of the personal preferences of the voters….. and the campaign. Of course, the voters will identify with Keaton. Harvey is the wild card, but the Brits will be divided.
for myself, Spall as Turner is the performance I most look forward to seeing.
Pay attention to history: Best Actor rarely goes to the young guy, and Redmayne is young by Academy standards.
Eddie Redmayne will be 33 when the Oscars are held, making him one of the youngest Best Actor winners ever. The old guys of the Academy dislike these young lions almost as much dislike older women. If Eddie Redmayne were to win, he would be the seventh youngest actor to win the award. A breakdown of the Best Actors that are younger than Eddie Redmayne upon winning the award:
– James Stewart (won in 1941) – By the time Stewart won the award for The Philadelphia Story, he was a red hot commodity in Hollywood and having been a part of box office hits and critically praised films such as You Can’t Take It With You, Destry Rides Again, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and The Shop Around the Corner.
– Marlon Brando (1954) – Like Stewart, Brando’s career was on fire by the time he received the award. There was major disappointment when he didn’t win for Streetcar at the ’51 Oscars. He was then nominated for Viva Zapta! and Julius Caesar before finally nabbing the prize for On the Waterfront. Brando was already an idol by the time of his win, a box office star and critically acclaimed actor. There was no denying him the win.
– Maximilian Schell (1962) – The Judgement at Nuremburg was a prestige picture that dealt in part with the Holocaust. It was stocked with superstars, including Spencer Tracy, Judy Garland, Marlene Dietrich, Burt Lancaster, and Montgomery Clift. The movie’s release coincided with the conviction of Nazi Adolf Eichmann. Schell was nominated against his co-star Spencer Tracy, who had already won two Oscars by this point.
– Richard Dreyfuss (1978) – Dreyfuss had already starred in box office hits like American Graffiti, Jaws, and Close Encounters of the Third Kind by the time he starred in The Goodbye Girl. Like Stewart and Brando, he was a star at the time of his win and critically praised in several movies.
– Daniel Day-Lewis (1990) – DDL was a surprise win this year. A Redmayne win would share a couple of similarities with DDL’s performance: both characters are physically handicapped and both are based on real life individuals, which is catnip to the Academy. By the time DDL won his award, he was gaining a reputation for impressive method acting and had starred in A Room With A View and The Incredible Lightness of Being. Redmayne has Les Mis under his belt, but I’m not sure it’s considered the same caliber of film as the what DDL had been a part of.
– Nicholas Cage (1996) – Cage had already built an impressive resume with Birdy, Peggy Sue Got Married, Moonstruck, Raising Arizona, and The Cotton Club. There was no denying a win for Leaving Las Vegas.
– Adrien Brody (2002) – This was a surprise win, although Brody happened to have two factors going for his (great) performance: he starred in a biopic that dealt with the Holocaust. Having Polanski as your director probably doesn’t hurt either. It’s hard to tell whether or not the fact that his competition had each already won an Oscar was a plus or minus.
Considering the history of the Best Actor race, I think Redmayne is a longshot to win. He may not even enter the race as this is a pretty stacked year. Keaton has to be the favorite, and Cumberbatch better fits the mold of the predecessors above with a resume that includes impressive performances and parts in large ensemble pieces. And he is 38, mostly out of that dicey age range voters sniff at.
I also wonder, should Cumberbatch and Redmayne face off, if the fact that Cumberbatch played Stephen Hawking to critical acclaim in the 2004 BBC film Hawking will prove detrimental to Eddie Redmaynes chances?
MOST CONVENTIONAL FINAL 5 (= no late bloomer makes the cut)
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
MOST SHOCKING FINAL 5 (= all early frontrunners are snubbed)
Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Jack O’Connell (Unbroken)
Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler)
It will be most likely a mixture of the two. Yep, I fully expect the final five to come from this list of 10 actors. I don’t buy the Tatum lead campaign for a second (no chance he makes it in lead, he could sneak in in supporting, and the distributor should know this), same for Waltz (‘lead’ whispers were there both times he eventually won, and my guess is Weinstein will know better by now to even consider placing him in lead especially when the film so obviously will revolve around the female lead) and though there is a chance Exodus will be Bale’s Gladiator, I can’t see it (yet?). Unfortunately even if A Most Violent Year is a modern masterpiece, Isaac and his little distributor will be – just like last year – facing the deep pockets of the powerful big studios, also it will be close to impossible even for someone as talented as James Corden, to stand out enough to warrant a lead campaign, in such a big ensemble (Into the Woods). On paper Pitt could still campaign, his film will make money and his performance was praised by critics, and in a quieter year it could be enough, but probably not in the ridiculously competitive 2014. Boseman’s film had already faced an Oscar-wise VERY early release date, it needed at least decent Box Office to stay afloat, but it couldn’t deliver that, so he has to rely on the MANY raves and the hope that critics’ groups didn’t forget him and will give him a much-needed push in December. Phoenix and Gyllenhaal may just be too edgy and modern for the Academy this year (not a bad thing, I might add), and the little buzz Tommy Lee Jones and Kevin Costner had right out of the gate, have already seemed to start to fade, not that sneaking in after flying under the radar the whole season would be unprecedented (Tommy Lee Jones pulled off just that not even that long ago (The Valley of Elah – 2007)).
In my opinion If anyone has a chance to make it OTHER than the ten I singled out, it is probably
– Miles Teller, though I suspect he will be hurt by O’Connell who is destined to burst onto the scene soon
– Bill Murray, who is beloved AND in a well-received Weinstein-crowdpleaser…and we should never underestimate those
– Ralph Fiennes, who is very respected and though would have a better shot in supporting, if the film is a BP nominee, he might just make lead, too
– Ben Affleck, who though seems to be overshadowed by Pike, could score his first acting nod for his career-best performance and career rebirth in general
– Ellar Coltrane, because his performance may not be flashy, but it IS historic and honestly, how strong of a contender could Boyhood be if they won’t even at least CONSIDER nominating the BOY ?
Bad news : We are destined to have another RedfordHanks (not to mention IsaacPhoenix) year in Best Actor = SEVERAL painful and unexpected snubs.
Good news : We have another year full of strong lead male performances…which should not come as a surprise since most films – especially the high-profile great ones – ARE about men.
EARLY (!) FRONTRUNNERS (5) : Eddie Redmayne, Benedict Cumberbatch, Steve Carell, Michael Keaton, Timothy Spall
STILL IN THE RUNNING (11) : Miles Teller, Bill Murray, Chadwick Boseman, Joaquin Phoenix, Brad Pitt, Ralph Fiennes, Ben Affleck, Ellar Coltrane, Jake Gyllenhaal, Tommy Lee Jones, Kevin Costner
LATE BLOOMERS (9): Bradley Cooper, Mark Wahlberg, Jack O’Connell, Christoph Waltz, Christian Bale, David Oyelowo, Oscar Isaac, Matthew McConaughey, James Corden
BOTTOM LINE: Last year there were basically only two late bloomers (DiCaprio, Bale) and both managed to knock out two early frontrunners (Redford, Hanks). This year we have 9 (!) so as much as I see, read and hear everywhere that apparently the Redmayne-Cumberbatch-Keaton trio is ‘locked’, I honestly don’t think they are. Sure, it IS still very early to claim locks AND the competition is exceptionally massive…but the main reason ‘lock’ should be a taboo word for the next few months, is the unprecedented number of high-profile late bloomers. Sure the Redmayne-Cumberbatch-Keaton-Carell-Spall quintet is perfectly viable and COULD happen, even if a few of the late entries become viable threats BUT the tricky thing is this : ALL nine late bloomers star in potential BP nominees, eight of those films will be released in December (signalling the high hopes of the respective studios), eight from big studios (=expensive Oscar campaigns) and five of those actors are NAMES (big stars and/or previous winners/nominees). So as impossible it may sound, there is a chance that ALL (but at least 2+) early frontrunners will get the boot in the end. Let’s face it, as much as we would like to have some clarity (=the quintet mentioned above or something close to it at least), it is perfectly conceivable that NONE of the final five has been seen just yet…yeah, yeah ‘no way Redmayne gets snubbed’, ‘no way Keaton gets snubbed’ blahblahblah….we said the same things about Redford and Hanks THIS TIME last year up until nominations morning.
P.S.
WORTHY CONTENDERS WHO ARE NOT REALLY CONTENDERS : Russell Crowe, James McAvoy, Tom Hardy, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Bill Hader, Colin Firth, Mark Ruffalo, Nicolas Cage, Irffan Khan, Jim Broadbent
Remember M1 this isnt the Bafta’s. I’m sure thats where Tim Spall will receive his recognition. But an Oscar nod could certainly happen.
I dont think there is enough room for 3 British actors in the race…The younger ones seem to have better chance as also their movies may get other big nominations including BP and/or BD…
Keaton is great in Birdman but Edward Norton, Emma Stone and even Naomi Watts are all good, especially Norton!
I actually have Timothy Spall winning for Mr. Turner. Just think: veteran British actor who’s never been nominated, plays a real-life historical figure in a period drama, gives a tour de force in a film said to be among a legendary British director’s best. That he won Best Actor at Cannes certainly helps his chances.
Tough to know which category they’ll put Steve Carell in. The publicity would suggest leading, but then Into the Woods’ to date would suggest the same for Meryl Streep. That’s not out yet, though. Foxcatcher has three leads – at least one of them’s gonna have to go supporting – I’m saying definitely Mark Ruffalo, possibly Channing Tatum, probably not Steve Carell.
Saw Foxcatcher today btw. Terrific. And Carell 100% deserves an Oscar nomination. My goodness he’s brilliant. Utterly brilliant. Surely couldn’t miss out on a nom, surely not.
The highly competitive nature of the ‘Best Actor’ category and the fact that ‘Foxcatcher’ will probably be perceived as “too cold and dark” for AMPAS definitely puts Carell’s chances of landing a ‘Best Actor’ nod at risk.
Keaton, Cumberbatch and Redmayne seem to essentially all be locks for being nominated. Depending on how well their films are received, Cooper, McConaughey and O’Connell are all strong contenders, so I agree that Carell is by no means a sure thing (then again, if Carell were to land a ‘supporting’ nod he’d be very competitive for a win).
“Either way, it appears to be so far a three man race with Keaton, Benedict Cumberbatch and Eddie Redmayne competing for the win.”
No Steve Carell? Personally I think Sasha is massivley underating Carell’s chances. I’m pretty sure he’s more of a lock than that Redmayne dude.
Wow. that Kris Tapley piece is really misguided. Whether you agree with it or not — and I do 100%
And here I thought this was the advocators’ hood.