Mike Leigh’s swoony, moody epic, Mr. Turner, seems to be quietly residing under the radar right now. But in a quick conversation with Movie City News’ David Poland he pointed out that it’s possible the film could be one of the sleeper success stories in this year’s Oscar race, and I have to agree with that assessment. Just because the pundits aren’t talking about it, or it isn’t on many lists, that doesn’t mean it isn’t “in their wheelhouse,” as they say.
The first thing to know is that J. M. W. Turner is Britain’s most famous painter. The newly morphing BAFTOscars will very likely remember this and that might mean a BAFTA frontrunner. As the last remaining films are screened (Unbroken will screen on November 30) they may or may not make the cut. But, as always, it’s best to go with what you know versus what you don’t know.
To that end, I’ve decided to follow in Anne Thompson’s footsteps and only predict films that either I’ve seen or have been widely seen and agreed upon. I’m doing it as an experiment to see how the chips fall by year’s end. I think it’s important to view the Oscar race this way, first because it lessens the pressure on films coming up, lowering expectations, and second because it does not give short shrift to the known successes.
What sight unseen predictions can do is provide much publicity for the upcoming productions, giving them Oscar buzz that hasn’t yet formed into an embryo. That’s great for these films, especially the ones that are racing against the clock to get into the race. But there are ways of writing about them and keeping them on lists without actually predicting them for certain categories. I think it’s a crap shoot, really, with no “there” there but after 16 years of this I’m always interested in ways that might shake up the race a little.
If I had an aggregate site like Gold Derby or Movie City News I might think of separating myself out by only predicting films that have been seen, just to see, by year’s end, who ends up being more accurate. But most other Oscar sites are into the “hope springs eternal” form of Oscar predicting and usually glom onto that which has not yet been seen.
Either way, as the movies open and enter the race, they can succeed or fail. If they fail, that opens the door for films people already knew were good enough to be remembered. That could potentially mean good things for Mr. Turner, a Cannes favorite, and The Grand Budapest Hotel, one of the year’s earlier hits.
Most of the time, the some of the year’s Best Picture nominees do come from earlier in the year — sleeper films that pundits already whip through but that the Academy maybe didn’t get to see. We forget about them while the Academy voters see them for the first time. With a few notable exceptions, this seems to always be the case.
Might 2014 be the year everything changes? It might be. We can’t yet know.
Mr. Turner has very good reviews already and if that continues it could end the year as one of the biggest money makers. Full of notable British actors, with sumptuous cinematography, art direction and costumes — it seems to be one that should be regarded in higher esteem at this point in the race.
While The Grand Budapest Hotel is a Wes Anderson movie, and the Academy isn’t Wes Anderson friendly, at least where Picture and Director are concerned, one thing it has in spades is a large ensemble cast, like Mr. Turner does. The Academy is ruled by actors — their branch numbering over double any of the second largest branches. That means they’re likely to lean towards films that give actors their due. That favors Birdman and Boyhood, also Gone Girl, Whiplash, Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, but it also favors Mr. Turner and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Either way, something to think about on this Saturday.
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A while ago, I predicted that Mr. Turner might find itself in the same boat as Moonrise Kingdom and Inside Llewyn Davis, and those two directors typically have a lot more fanboy support.
Mike Leigh is my favourite currently active (and living) director along with PTA, so would love for him to re-enter the Oscar fray after mostly being overlooked since Vera Drake.
I’ll be seeing Mr. Turner next month, and the dozen films of his that I have seen have been 3.5/5 at worst, so hope that trend of excellence continues.
Nick, I’m guessing the “too American” card this year at the BAFTAs and GGs will be played by Boyhood, which if it performs weak at both or either of those could be truly detrimental to its campaign.
Zooey makes good points re: Leigh. Adding to that, I think recent noms for Malick and Haneke bode well for Leigh who is another well-respect director with a strong filmography to his name that the Academy may feel they haven’t given due recognition to.
Bryce, the score is not memorable. The real stars of Mr. Turner are the production design and cinematography, both of which fully realize Turner’s artistic sensibilities for cinema. Spall and the rest of the cast, as well as Leigh, all do great work as well. This one’s been in my predictions in many categories for a long time. You can’t underestimate Leigh’s films considering how often AMPAS recognizes them.
Agreeance. Sadly….
I love Mike Leigh and consider some of his films to be one of the best of their respective years, but having just seen Mr Turner I was thoroughly underwhelmed. It looks gorgeous and should get deserving cinematography and costume nods, possibly art direction and Spall at a stretch. It was a rather long and boring sit for me.
The last four times Mike Leigh got nominated for original screenplay he wasn’t considered to be in the top 5 by most people. He has been nominated for original screenplay without any major precursor support (and not once). He got into directing for Vera Drake after being snubbed by virtually every critics’ group, the Globes and the DGA. He has a solid fan base within the Academy and his actors get a lot of love. I believe the film could come back with the critics’ awards. I believe Spall has NYFCC.
I’ve carped elsewherein thse threads over the lack of “ink” for this film. Of course the primarily American based blogosphere was unliklely to promote this film as it would not appeal to the demographic (most 18-35 year olds will dismiss it summarily as “boring” as witnessed in this thread). AMPAS, however, is another story; the story of WASPY, male septuagenarian artist at the height of his career which simultaneously comments uopn the filmmaker, a WASPY, septuagenarian filmmaker who has been nominated for Oscar 7 times and hasn’t yet won? Catnip. Although it seems that SPC has been pushing other films (first “Foxacstcher”, more recently “Whiplash”) harder, it makes sense in that these films are probably more commercially viable asnd will benefit more in that respect from AMPAS attention. Nonetheless, I’ve felt all along that this film actually offers the opportunity for the most nominations. I also believe that the presumed threats from “Imitation Game” and “Theory of Eerything” crowding this one out are unfounded – Spall will likely command more actors votes than either Cumberbatch or, especially, Redmayne and I guarantee that Mike Leigh commands greater respect than Morten Tyldum, Graham Moore, James March and Anthony McCarten combined. Ditto virtually the entire crew here as well – most are previous nominees who have yet to win, as opposed to the crew members of the other films, few of whom have already been recognized by AMPAS. Watch BAFTA – American bloggers will be “shocked” by the degree to which this film will dominate the nominations…
Leigh is an Academy favourite – nominated 5 times as screenwriter and twice as director. I think at least MR TURNER will pick up Original Screenplay, Costume and Cinematography nominations. Spall should have been a shoo-in for a Best Actor nomination – but the field this year is so competitive. However, I feel certain at the BAFTAs the Best Actor prize will be a two horse race between him and Eddy Redmayne in THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING. MR TURNER opens here in the UK on Friday. Interestingly, in the US it’s opening Christmas week so it should be suitably high profile during the Oscar nomination voting.
Speaking of overlooked, I just saw “Fury” and was surprised at how good I thought it was. It’s like “Saving Private Ryan” without the flag waving. The apartment scene with the two German girls has to be one of the best of the year. Don’t understand how people can watch this movie and think it glorifies war. Really enjoyed the score from Steven Price as well.
Back on topic – can’t wait to see “Mr. Turner.” It looks great.
SPC also now has “Still Alice” and I think that’s their #1 Oscar priority now. Julianne Moore for sure. And also they, the Academy, will see Alec Baldwin and K-Stew doing some of the best work of their careers, as Moore’s supportive-but-torn husband, and her feisty actress daughter. In Supp. Actress esp. Stewart has a chance as well as Moore. And SPC knows it.
And “Whiplash” is growing in buzz everyday.
“Mr. Turner” is nearly three hours….and yes, there is a lot of grunting A LOT from Spall. And unlike the sublime “Topsy Turvy” which had the great Gilbert and Sullivan scores to delight us(and Spall was brilliant in that) in “Mr. Turner” we’re watching two dimensional canvasses. Yes, paint drying. A film about watching paint dry. I love Turner’s pictures whenever I see them. But I don’t see this getting anything from the Academy except Best Set Design, Best Cinematography, Best Costumes.
I went to the mat for that lovely actress of his a couple of years back Leslie Manville, and went down in flames with her. But I still think that was a great, overlooked performance.
Leigh isn’t on the Academy’s radar like he used to be. Manville, who suffered from category confusion, should’ve been a slam dunk, but wasn’t.
It’s a BAFTA film, not AMPAS, IMO.
Mr. Turner appears tailor-made for the Oscars… the 1996 Oscars. It seems right in line with the Miramax type of film.
While this quiet little period piece seems to gel with the stereotyped “Oscar bait,” Oscar doesn’t seem quite as willing to go for this type of film anymore. It reminds me a bit of last year’s The Invisible Woman, which people kept throwing around as an outside possibility that just never took. Now, obviously, Leigh is a higher profile and more proven director than Fiennes and this has good reviews, but I still don’t feel like it’s the type of contender it may have been 20 years ago, at least in the major categories. I think that Spall will get a Globe and BAFTA nomination but be snubbed by the Oscars in favor of a latecomer, that it will be strong in the technical categories of Cinematography/Production Design/Costume Design/maybe Score or Make-Up, but that a screenplay nod is its best chance at a nomination in the major eight categories.
But I’ll admit a potential bias. Hearing Guy Lodge talk about Spall’s grunting certainly hasn’t made me too excited about this one.
After the shocking Vera Drake nods back in 2005, it is not wise to underestimate Mr. Leigh, awards-wise.
Mr. Turner just maybe seems “too British”. If you remember last year Dallas Buyers Club wasn’t nominated for anything at the Baftas. I think it’s sort of the same thing. The Brits maybe viewed it as “too American”. Who knows. I certainly think it’s possible for Spall to receive a best actor nom. But he faces some very tough competition in the months ahead. Personally I think too many people are on the Eddie Redmayne bandwagon. I think its 100% possible AMPAS will choose to nominate the veteran Spall over the relative newcomer Redmayne. I don’t think the British trio of Cumberbatch/Redmayne/Spall are all getting in. Only two will make the cut.
In the case of Mr. Turner, I think that it might actually be TOO English for the Academy. I saw it with a friend at the NYFF and both of us had the same complaint: we couldn’t understand a good deal of what people were saying. The accents were so thick they almost needed subtitles. Add to that the fact that Spall spends most of the film grunting, it’s a hard sell for Americans.
With that said, I did quite like the film, especially Spall’s performance, the cinematography, and the score. I really think it should be a bigger contender for score than it seems to be so far.
Ultimately I don’t see this getting in outside of below the line nominations. I just can’t imagine enough people putting it in their top 5 for Picture, competition is too fierce with the sight-unseens for Actor, I see no real reason to nominate Leigh for director given the rest of the field, etc. I could be wrong. I just don’t see it.
The brilliant Another Year was mostly ignored by the Academy and the awards groups (actually had women talking to women about not-men} and that has led to me being pessimistic about Turner’s chances.
Mike directed the best film of 1996 Secrets and Lies and the best film of 1999 Topsy Turvy . I am looking forward to see Mr. Turner.
Haven’t seen it yet but I already feel it’s going to be one of my horses…
Grand Budapest Hotel has zero chance. I think it’s time we all recognize that AMPAS just doesn’t care all that much about Wes Anderson, his two screenplay noms and Mr. Fox’s animated film nom notwithstanding. He’s never gotten a Best Director nod, none of films have ever been up for Best Picture and no performance from an Anderson film has ever been nominated for an acting prize, which is perhaps the most damning fact of all given the number of acclaimed actors involved in these projects. It’s clear that AMPAS isn’t buying what Anderson is selling.
Plus, I also think they could be a last-minute push from the Selma / Ava DuVernay camp. That one seems like it could get in before Mr. Turner would. But, that’s just my opinion.
I think Mr. Turner is being overlooked, partly because it’s being overshadowed by the 2 other British films, The Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game. Is there any realistic scenario where all 3 are nominated for Best Picture? If so, which American film(s) get pushed out?
What’s your take on the score, anyone who’s seen in? Gary Yershon’s work in ANOTHER YEAR and other collaborations with Leigh has been unforgettable, but far too delicate for Zimmer’s branch. I don’t expect this year to be different.
Bob, you’re going *love* it. It’s one of the best movies I’ve ever seen about an artist – and especially if you’re a fan of Turner’s (and who isn’t). It’s magnificent. As to the Foxcatcher/Whiplash thing – well of the three of them Mr. Turner is the most in their “wheelhouse.”
I’m torn : I really want it to do well (I think it is quite possibly Mike Leigh’s best film to date) and I firmly believe it is a solid in contender in a bunch of categories (picture, director, screenplay, actor, costume, art, cinematograpy, editing), problem is the British-vote that usually helps out these little prestige British pics, may very well go to flashier contenders like The Imitation Game or even The Theory of Everything.
The other main obstacle it has to overcome in my opinion, is the massive competition in Best Actor : Cannes winner Timothy Spall is a strong early contender, problem is that due to the basically unprecedented number of potential late entries, the emphasis should be on ‘early’. Right now I feel that he is in fifth place after Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Keaton and Carell…yep, if nominations came out tomorrow, I think those five would be the nominees…but we still have big names (McConaughey, Cooper, Waltz, Bale, Wahlberg) and promising up and comers (Oyelowo, O’Connell, Isaac, Corden) to look forward to, not to mention the popular and respected (Bill Murray, Brad Pitt, Ralph Fiennes, Ben Affleck, Tommy Lee Jones, Kevin Costner, Joaquin Phoenix, Jake Gyllenhaal) who could STILL opt to campaign and in the end charm their way into the top5 and of course the acclaimed breakthrough trio (Teller, Coltrane, Boseman) shouldn’t be underestimate just yet, either.
Long story short, Spall will face massive competition and I fear that in the end, he will not make the cut, and if he doesn’t, how seriously will the Academy take Mr. Turner if they could say no to ‘Mr. Turner’ ?
P.S. Stephen Daldry’s TRASH starring Rooney Mara has just won big at the Rome Film Festival and considering it received good/great early reviews and Daldry received Best Director nominations for his first three films (and even his fourth pulled off a BP nod), I’m not ao sure that we aren’t SERIOUSLY underestimating this one. Thoughts ?
Does it matter than Mr. Turner appears to be SPC’s third priority after Whiplash and Foxcatcher, or that it got no buzz out of Telluride? Maybe there’s a good reason there’s no buzz for it, and that’s that it isn’t a contender for awards outside the UK.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. And where there isn’t smoke, there isn’t fire.
It’s Mike Leigh, it’s period. It can easily go from “overlooked” (by who exactly?) to garner nominations for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, and Best Production Design — and Best Director isn’t out of the question, especially in a tight race to occupy those 4th and 5th slots, someone with a name and a proven AMPAS base like Leigh could easily grab a spot in the final five.
my most anticipated. Saying Turner is England’s most famous painter is high praise, but below the mark. Turner is one of the greats, anywhere, any time. I had the pleasure of spending time with many of his paintings one afternoon so the idea of an interpretation of his eye by Mike Leigh is utterly appealing to me.
If Mr Turner was being handled by Harvey, sure.