Once the weekend is over we’ll be headlong into the early critics awards. The cards pretty much fall from there. Over these next few weeks Academy members will face a daunting screener pile. There will be some they’ll be more eager to watch (Gone Girl) than others. The selection of films up for Oscar then go up before their whole family for discussion. That is how we all ended up in the mess we’re in. You have to figure – it’s not Best Picture of the Year but rather Best Picture any of us can stand, mostly, during the holidays. Uncle Harry really didn’t like Birdman because they were all talking so fast and what the heck was that ending about? Aunt Shirley really loved The Theory of Everything but Cousin Tyler was playing his DS the entire time and had no idea who the guy in the wheelchair was but he LOVED Fury and Birdman and Inherent Vice. He thought Big Hero 6 should win Best Picture. Granda Lowenstein was all about the Imitation Game but brother Patrick couldn’t stop talking about Interstellar. They had to wait until the kids went to bed before they put on Gone Girl and when it was over the newly married Johnsons sat awkwardly silent until finally someone broke the ice. “So, been married long?” Nobody could find anything bad to say about Boyhood except that the young Smith girl wondered why it wasn’t called Motherhood. “where’s the big Oscar movies,” they wondered. And that was when the cleaning lady from the kitchen came out and explained the concept of the Hollywood tent pole, and how it’s marginalized the Oscar movie so that studios don’t make them anymore. Or rarely. Those movies don’t make money, she explained, and they cost too much and the risks are too high. Cousin Tyler said Gone Girl made $160 million. Isn’t that the an Oscar movie? The cleaning lady dried off her hands and pulled up a chair. She finally sat down and let out a long sigh. Now, she said, it was time to explain why only certain movies get nominated and others don’t. At the end of the long monologue, she ended it succinctly: think Nazis.
The Gurus of Gold have put up their latest before Thanksgiving:
And Gold Derby’s:
Scott Feinberg’s Feinberg Forecast has gotten a redesign — looks pretty good. He’s finally dropped his CitizenFour for Best Picture prediction, has Birdman at #6 (!) and American Sniper at #8.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
I wouldn’t underestimate “Into the Woods”. It’s got a lot going for it and, if the reactions from the advance screenings are any indication and the movie is a hit, it could be a major contender. Having a pedigree is hardly a detriment -beautiful Sonheim score, phenomenal cast, a director who’s delivered a musical to a Best Picture win, and exceptionally accomplished below line talent. I’m so tired of these snooty comments about Science Fiction, Fantasy, and Musical movies being somehow inferior. Interstellar, while flawed, was an outstanding film guided by a superb director. How sad that someone could actually advocate agitating posts to keep movies out of contention that have largely been unseen, based solely on genre and that person’s preference.
Best movies I’ve seen so far this year:
Ida
Birdman
Two Days, One Night
Love is Strange
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl was entertaining as hell and Boyhood was the biggest disappointment.
Lol at Feinberg’s CitizenFour prediction, I really can’t see that happening.
Evan, the main difference between your predictions and my predictions vs his is that he’s PAID to predict this stuff and in turn project his “knowledge” back out into the industry. His predictions actually have influence over the race because of his position. Mine and yours don’t. I’m mostly being bratty because I dislike him. I think he’s generally pretty awful and it’s always fun to find justification for thinking he sucks as a person and at his job 😛
Bryce, the biggest shock of that S&S list is that they expect me to think The Wolf of Wall Street is on par with Mr. Turner. Coz no.
What I want to know, is why isn´t Chris Rock´s Top Five is not in your Original Screenplay as a possible contender? Think outside of the box. Pundits need to stop copying each other. with their tired lists. Try putting a film out there that´s not in the conversation. It might make Oscar watching more interesting. SMDH
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http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/lucasfilm/starwarstheforceawakens/
“Feinberg has Chef as a “major threat” above Mr. Turner the “possibility” and Inherent Vice the “long shot” so…………………………………
He’s a tool and his irrational prognosticating never ceases to confirm that.”
Be nice! I agree that Mr. Turner has a better chance than Chef, but seriously, nobody gets it exactly right. I’d question your placement of American Sniper above all of the following: The Theory of Everything/Unbroken/Gone Girl. I’m sure you’d have issues with my predictions. It’s the name of the game.
Sight & Sound To 20
1. Boyhood
2. Good-bye to Language
=3. Leviathan
=3. Horse Money
5. Under The Skin
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. Winter Sleep
8. The Tribe
=9. Ida
=9. Jauja
=11. Mr. Turner
=11. National Gallery
=11. The Wolf of Wall Street
=11. Whiplash
15. The Duke of Burgundy
=16. Birdman
=16. Two Days, One Night
=18. Citizenfour
=18. The Look of Silence
=18. The Wind Rises
Sight & Sound Top 20 for 2014
http://www.bfi.org.uk/best-films-2014
Serious question: Has any Oscar pundit seen UNBROKEN and since doing so issued a set of predictions? Has Karger seen it? Is he a consultant in the editing room giving advice such as “cut that short, custom designers will think that’s too scary!” Because that’s kind of his marketable skill, right?
I believe Tero said he would update his predictions after seeing an important movie today. Where are you, Tero?? I need to know.
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Selma
4. Interstellar
5. The Imitation Game
6. Whiplash
7. American Sniper
8. Mr. Turner
9. Into the Woods
10. Foxcatcher
MAJOR THREATS: The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Gone Girl
OUTSIDE POSSIBILITIES: Fury, Nightcrawler, Inherent Vice, Love Is Strange
LITERALLY NOTHING ELSE STANDS A CHANCE IN HELL
The Theory of Everything is a really boring movie because (wihtout astrophysics) it is about boring people.
Feinberg has Chef as a “major threat” above Mr. Turner the “possibility” and Inherent Vice the “long shot” so…………………………………
He’s a tool and his irrational prognosticating never ceases to confirm that.
two grouchy comments. I liked the Theory of everything a lot, but have a hard time imagining it on a five film ballot and also wonder if people are going to award a (different) film wherein the lead plays the same (very interesting) character he has played on TV and in a couple of films already.
Well, according to IMDb, Boyhood’s working title was called Growing Up. I think that that title would have been able to include parenting within the concept. Boyhood is of course, very implicit in it’s meaning.
But then again, I’m a graduate student, and TV shows I love from The Simpsons to 30 Rock agree that I am the worst 🙂
@Bill
I and a lot of other people I know have wondered about the title in various ways, including the way Patricia Arquette’s mother stuck with us more than anything else. Also: the kind of presumptuous universality implicit in “Boyhood,” sans article.
Nobody is wondering why Boyhood isn’t called Motherhood
Many years ago I went to a movie with a friend of mine. After the movie I asked him what he thought of it and he said it was pretty good. A few weeks later we were having supper with friends who asked what his favourite part of the movie was, after he described the “best ” part of the movie I turned to him and said ” you know that was a preview for another movie right??… Wish he’d let me vote for him…. Lol
I’m guessing we’ll see a lot more shifting before the end of January. I’m not getting a “sure thing” feeling from much at this point. Director, especially, seems really fluid right now, with only Linklater, Iñárritu and (yes) DuVernay feeling solid. The rest will depend on the critics – only if they go positively orgasmic over somebody – and the general mood when the ballots are released.
Just a note – I liked the look of Feinberg’s layout, but was surprised at some of his rankings and omissions. I guess there’s a general feeling of uncertainty right now, perhaps due to Paddy’s missing gin.
You forgot to mention when estranged relative Paddy walked in and asked what the fuck everyone was doing sitting around watching The Theory of Everything and not the new Lisandro Alonso film and where the fuck was all the gin?
I think the thing about the list so far is the directors who surprise you. Linklater has delivered a film that is consistent with his other pictures while simultaneously surpassing them. Theme, form, content, delivery. In every way, Boyhood exceeds his other pictures.
Can you honestly say that Iñárritu has delivered a film like Birdman? Again, theme, style, content? No, it’s a complete departure. That’s why I think it might come down to these two.
David Fincher? I am a huge admirer of Fincher and I really like Gone Girl, but brilliant as it is, it is somewhat within his wheelhouse and in an odd way it will always be tougher and tougher for Fincher to get the statuette because in order to surpass himself, he is going to have to deliver one absolute knock-out picture which is almost the anti-thesis of what he has done before (think Spielberg with Schindler’s List). Or he is going to have to stick around long enough for a so-so year and then the Academy finally recognises him for doing a solid piece (like Scorsese).
The same for Bennet Miller. Always a solid delivery, but…
The other main contenders (let’s face it, Nolan/Eastwood/Marshall) don’t stand a chance.
As for the Best Picture race, I feel like there are 3 right now that stand the best chance at a nomination. Birdman, Boyhood, and Selma.
I’m not sure what to make about all the mixed talk about The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. I feel like the chances for American Sniper have slipped away. I’m intreagued by the talk of Into the Woods. If one picks up momentum that seems out of the race, I hope it’s Inherent Vice.
“There will be some they’ll be more eager to watch (Gone Girl) than others.” – I like the sound of that! 🙂
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“You have to figure – it’s not Best Picture of the Year but rather Best Picture any of us can stand, mostly, during the holidays.” – It’s almost like, just try to survive. Whichever movie stays with you the strongest through the Holidays is the winner.
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“Uncle Harry really didn’t like Birdman because they were all talking so fast and what the heck was that ending about?” – Hahaha!!! True that. But I LOVED it anyway! 🙂
“Every day in every way it’s getting better and better.”
Especially the cleaning lady part, that was really funny, and I adore WWII films! I already share Uncle Harry’s thoughts on Birdman, and I’ve only seen the trailer! I don’t like Scott Feinberg’s redesign because I can’t see it on my tablet, it keeps shutting down my browser and I lose half my tabs. There should also be a light mobile version.