The Best Actor race started early this year, in Cannes, when Timothy Spall won Best Actor for bringing the painter J.M.W. Turner to life in Mike Leigh’s Mr. Turner. Also at Cannes was Steve Carell bringing John DuPont to life. What a brilliant performance by Carell in Foxcatcher. He had to be one of the five. Later came Michael Keaton in Birdman, a rumored-to-be-great performance as a former superhero trying for respectability in bringing a Raymond Carver short story to life. That was it. The race was over. Michael Keaton had it in the bag. Then along came Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game at Telluride — his performance seemed unbeatable. Now we had mostly a two-man race with Timothy Spall still a major contender. Next out of the gate came Eddie Redmayne at Toronto bringing Stephen Hawking to life. Well, that’s it. Race over. Redmayne’s charming portrayal seemed like it could Daniel Day-Lewis its way to the top spot. But wait no, Michael Keaton. But wait no, Benedict Cumberbatch. But wait no! The AFI fest delivered David Oyelowo bring Martin Luther King, Jr. to life in an exceptional, breathtaking performance. Now it seemed like Oyelowo couldn’t lose. But wait, Michael Keaton, and wait, Benedict Cumberbatch, but wait, Eddie Redmayne!
That brings us to the eve before the critics awards start rolling in. Word is that Jack O’Connell is pretty great in Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken and he too could be a spoiler. Pundits keep screaming about category fraud with Carell, saying he should be in the supporting actor race or seeing his slot as vulnerable. Without anything to back it up so far, it seems certain that three names are guaranteed. The order shifts almost daily.
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. David Oyelowo, Selma
And then there’s that tricky 5th slot which is, I think, a toss-up between Carell, Spall and perhaps O’Connell. But it’s a very tight race — probably the most heated and anyone can win. Any of the five. They will all be first time nominees. They all appear to be starring in a Best Picture contender. Probably the hotter the film overall, the better the actor’s chances.
Other names floating around because they were just so great include Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel, Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler, Bradley Cooper – astounding in American Sniper.
Contrast that with the Best Actress race where there is one strong contender right now that is even in a potential Best Picture nominee and that’s Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl – and believe me, many pundits seem to think even Gone Girl is out. Felicity Jones in Theory of Everything also has a good chance but—
Take, for example, Kris Tapley’s predicted films:
- “Birdman”
- “Boyhood”
- “The Imitation Game”
- “Selma”
- “Mr. Turner”
- “The Theory of Everything”
- “Unbroken”
- “Whiplash”
Gone Girl is a maybe for Best Picture, Theory is being predicted but it is by no means a done deal for Best Picture. The other two outside choices would be Wild and The Homesman. That, my friends, is a sorry ass state of affairs. Felicity Jones’ inclusion would spare this contender list the shame of being the first year since 2005 that no lead actress contenders had corresponding Best Pic nods.
These films, all of them, are really only about men – great men, true enough, but only men. I am probably the only person writing about the Oscars who gives a damn about that but there it is.
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Why is BRAD PITT not on the list?……he did a really good job in FURY……I hope he gets nominated
and shut up those who doesn’t think he should be.
I wonder if Hader can still sneak in. The snub at the Indie Spirits may be an obstacle, especially since his film (and potential nomination) would fall in line with the Sundanc-family dramedy that can sneak in. I’m getting a real You Can Count on Me/The Savages vibe–however, both of those movies caught some precursors, and Hoffman received the attention for The Savages, but it was Laura Linney (in The Savages) who grabbed that fifth Best Actress slot–perhaps Kristen Wiig might be the Laura Linney of this year…
Unfortunately that would void my whole feeling about Hader–if The Skeleton Twins can sneak in ala the Savages…
That would be awesome if Steve Carrel will compaigned in the Supporting Actor Category!
My Wishlist would be:
Actor Leading Role
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
David Oyelowo – Selma
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
Actor Supporting Role
Edward Norton – Birdman
J. K. Simmons – Whiplash
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Steve Carrel – Foxcatcher
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
In my Opinion, that would be AMAZING!
I would love to see Spall get a nomination; however, it seems to me that the Academy’s love for Mike Leigh extends to screenplay, director, and ACTRESS. His actors have never been nominated, and sadly after Another Year failed to get any significant recognition (save a screenplay nod), I’m wondering if the bloom is off the rose in the academy’s eyes. The critics will continue to love him, and despite their need to be constantly hip, I think that Spall might get in with some of the major critics awards. It’s giving me Topsy-Turvy vibes, which hit big with critics–however, Jim Broadbent missed the “industry” precursors.
I think that the Academy will settle in on Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, Carell (although I would prefer Tatum), and…something tells me that Teller will sneak in. Whiplash is giving me Beasts of the Southern Wild vibes (a film that generated a lot of excitement from the critics, and as the precursors were announced, appeared to have lost steam). But Beasts arrived to the Academy in a big way, and I feel like Teller might be part of a Whiplash wave.
Ultimately, I think that this is Keaton’s to lose. I know that Redmayne and Cumberbatch seem legit frontrunners– however I feel like pundits are always prepared for a surprise, and in the end, the earliest choices end up being the most accurate.
Likelihood to win:
1. Keaton
2. Oyelowo
=3. Redmayne
=3. Cumberbatch
I can see Carrell getting bump to supporting and Jake sneaking in (real chance he wins L.A Critic since Night-crawler will do well there as an L.A set film)
I don’t see Keaton winning. There’s not enough sentiment for him, for his character, or for his film. It would be a big fluke if he won. Caveats: This entire category seems a little flukey this year plus I didn’t think Meryl would win for Iron Lady.
So in the Acting Categories i guess that there are some Locks!
Actor Leading Role
Michael Keaton “Birdman”
Benedict Cumberbatch “The Imitation Game”
Steve Carell “Foxcatcher”
Eddie Redmayne “The Theory of Everything”
David Oyelowo “Selma”
Actress Leading Role
Julianne Moore “Still Alice”
Reese Witherspoon “Wild”
Felicity Jones “The Theory of Everything”
Rosamund Pike “Gone Girl”
?
Actor Supporting Role
J. K. Simmons “Whiplash”
Edward Norton “Birdman”
Ethan Hawke “Boyhood”
Mark Ruffalo “Foxcatcher”
?
Actress Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette “Boyhood”
Jessica Chastain “A Most Violent Year”
Keira Knightley “The Imitation Game”
Meryl Streep “Into the Woods”
Emma Stone “Birdman”
In my Opinion should Michael Keaton win but i have this feeling that Eddie Redmayne will win! Some say Benedict Cumberbatch but i believe that Eddie Redmayne will win!
Hi Q Mark,
It’s not a ‘rule’ that the Academy has brought in, it’s just that studios prefer to rally their attention around supporting one favoured lead performance from a given movie (to improve their chance of landing a lead nomination).
If two lead performances are equally campaigned for a lead slot then it increases their chances of vote splitting and both could miss out (which is why so many people think it would be smart for Carell to be campaigned supporting to avoid vote splitting with Channing Tatum).
m1
I know he is British but he is playing an American icon while the other two (three if you count Spall) play British icons that’s why I think the British vote will go to them…and (most of) the rest to Oyelowo. We’ll see!
I agree with Alexww, that Sony Pictures Classics should be campaigning Steve Carell for a supporting nomination.
Due to intense competition the prospect of Carell getting nominated in lead is dubious, whilst he would surely be able to manage a nomination in the less competitive supporting category (Carell’s performance is technically supporting, so it makes sense).
Currently, I don’t see anyone expected to be nominated in supporting (including Norton) of being capable of beating Simmons so Carell’s inclusion in this category would have made things more interesting.
Who knows, perhaps AMPAS voters might decide to not nominate Mark Ruffalo, and to instead nominate Steve Carell in supporting.
Still think Cumberbatch will win as much as I would like to see Keaton’s weird, sad, funny, and moving performance win.
M1, he’s British. If he was born and raised in the UK, he’s British. His parents’ nationality has nothing to do with it. There are plenty of anti-immigration nutjobs who’d take a whole lot of sick solace in your implication that he’s ‘not technically British’ by being of Nigerian descent.
We’re all of African descent if you go back far enough.
Remember last year when everyone thought Tom Hanks was in for Captain Phillips? I wonder if something like that will happen this time around.
My money’s still on Benedict Cumberbatch. I’m a strong believer in holding firm to my Oscar predictions unless I’m given a compelling reason to jump ship, and the opinions of fellow Oscar watchers aren’t enough to convince me to do so. It feels more like his moment to me than Michael Keaton’s. He’s not unlike Matthew McConaughey was last year – very popular actor with the public, who’ll love to see him take the stage and give charming speeches, plus he’s never been nominated before despite a run of very good performances in recent years that perhaps ought to have earned him a nomination or two. He also has The Weinstein Company backing him, which seems to be the main reason people are even still considering The Imitation Game for major awards success. That easily makes up for what he doesn’t have in comparison to McConaughey last year, which is that extra 15 years in the business in which he saw his credibility drop swiftly as his star rose, making his story more of a comeback one.
“Keaton is in the kind of modern, edgy masterpiece we always hope the Academy would ‘get’ but they rarely do (the reason why early frontrunner Redford didn’t even get a nomination, and early frontrunner Phoenix (The Master) barely made the top5) therefore I believe his reward will be his first career nomination.”
Have you actually seen Birdman? It’s a total crowdpleaser. If anything, it’s this year’s Black Swan, also with an accomplished lead performance. Michael Keaton is in it to win it. If there’s any threat, on my point of view, it’s Eddie Redmayne, simply because I can’t think of anything else other than his performance when I think about the movie. I think voters might feel the same way with such a haunting performance.
Never mind my previous comment. Oyelowo was born in England but is of Nigerian descent. So, he’s not technically British in that sense.
Holy shit. Just saw Tommy Lee Jones’ western THE HOMESMAN. Grim. Gorgeous. Weird. At times unembellished, at times trope, sustainably persuasive as a mythical account of the delusion, fallout and ultimate implacability of what it came to be known as Manifest Destiny. A major motion picture. Oscar-worthy.
I haven’t changed my predict from Oct. Cooper is winning.
“David Oyelowo will win. PERIOD. Redmayne and Cumberbatch will be viable runners-up but in the end they will probably split the British vote and cancel each other out.”
You do realize that Oyelowo is also British, right?
Keaton, Cumbie, Redmayne, Oyelowo. I’m still having a hard time imagining that these four don’t get nominated.
The final slot is the kicker. I think it’s between Carell and Spall, with Cooper maybe having an outside shot if American Sniper manages to catch fire, although from the early reviews, I’m skeptical. I’m just not seeing how anyone else breaks through, at this point, although in a month I might feel differently.
From a personal perspective and without having seen Foxcatcher I would say Jake Gyllenhaal has been the best performance I’ve seen all year, easily. So sad it may be unlikely he’ll even be recognised. I can’t stop laughing at the lunacy of The Theory of Everything. A bad joke that isn’t going away..
I went with the boring most logical choices:
Keaton
Oyelowo
Redmayne
Cumberbatch
Carell
I would like to point out that people shouldn’t underestimate Cooper for American Sniper. This time last year and the year before that the “Gurus” didn’t have him getting nominated, yet look what happened. Also Gyllenhaal’s stock continues to rise and I think it’s 100% he could make the cut. Damn he was good. Spall ain’t happeing unless they decide to snub one of the two young Brits. Same goes for O’Connell.
Why isn’t Boseman considered? One of the best this year. I haven’t seen the others.
Hardy deserves to be on that list more than Murray, Wahlberg or McC, but whatever.
Redmayne, Cumberbatch and Keaton – for sure, the winner will be one of them. Spall and Oyelowo might make the five.
I guess Fiennes, Isaac and Phoenix will be watching from home, unfortunately. That’s what happens when you’re a chameleon – you get judged by your character/role and not your skill as a chameleon.
Keaton isn’t winning. There is no sentiment in Hollywood that he is “overdue” nor that he has given a slate of prior dramatic performances that anyone respects. Sure, he has always been good in everything, and yes, he will always have that great work in Clean and Sober. And truly, he does enervate literally every movie he appears in with a sort of energy, and is, in a sense, a brand of his own. But he is far from Hollywood royalty. Remember how Mickey Rourke was going to be “the winner” for The Wrestler? Right. Complicating his path further, Birdman, great as it is, isn’t a cozy Academy movie and isn’t a character that hits you in the gut — he’s an actor who rejects Hollywood to self-atualize in New York; a bruised, artistic ego without much of a shred of warmth who is manic through much of the movie. Don’t get me wrong — it’s a terrific movie and performance. But deep or human or universal? Not really, which isn’t to say his Riggan Thomson isn’t worthy of empathy, but comparatively, the others are on a different plane.
I really wish Carrell had gone for supporting, if so it would be a great race between him and J.K Simmons. Saldy he will probably be shuffled out of the race, or maybe get the 5th slot but with no chance of winning.