Nothing has won anything major yet. The Imitation Game won the top People’s Choice award in Toronto, which is a good thing. Way too many people were predicting Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken to win Best Picture, which will likely go down in awards history as one of those years where expectations were so impossibly high the film couldn’t possibly live up to them. But no pundit will take the blame for this, nor will they change their practices next year when a Big Oscar Movie on paper lands in their number one spot. I think it’s easy to predict a nominee that way, just not a winner. Never a winner. A winner happens organically. It is seen, then it wins. There are very few ideas so big they can trump a movie being seen.
There are so many of us clucking about, pretending to be experts, giving advice, predictions — making broad statements, dismissing films we shouldn’t. It seems like the number of people covering this race, which doesn’t have much of a story to it this year, has tripled since last year. It is an industry onto itself and half of the time I’ve forgotten what any of it means.
The simple of fact of it is, nobody knows squat, my friends. We think we know but we don’t. One movie could win a major award and the whole thing could be turned around. One movie could seem like it has everything it needs to get in — like Inside Llewyn Davis — and not get in. American Hustle can seem like a big sloppy mess of a movie and it can top the critics awards on the march to Oscar. In truth, the Oscar race starts tomorrow. Before that, dear friends, it’s just a lot of hot air in a dry desert.
Finally, Unbroken screened for audiences. It is by no means a bad film. Jolie shows promise as a director — she’s getting there. She’s not quite great yet, nor should she be expected to be. She seems drawn towards stories of suffering and Unbroken is no exception. Where other actors turned directors usually deal with feel-good material or else very solid stories, Jolie is dealing with telling the true life story of someone she came to love and admire. Her respect, admiration, and yes, love for Louis Zamperini shines through the film. It is a heartfelt dedication to a truly exceptional man. Does that make it a good movie? It has its moments. It is tough to sit through, meaning, it doesn’t let up. It’s one awful scene after another because it’s depicting Zamperini’s life, which was a whole lot of faith-testing suffering. To that end, it is not unlike Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ. There are God references throughout Unbroken, which makes me think it is going to play well with the faithful.
In terms of Oscar – well, who knows. Look, Munich got in for Picture and Director and it had about as much hype as Unbroken had. Its momentum kept it in the race. Can Unbroken make the top five ballots of enough Academy members to get in? Right now, that isn’t a question that can be answered. There are too many variables. We don’t yet know where any of these films are going to land. We have our guesses. Most people think I’m nuts to see Gone Girl as a solid entry but how could anyone not see it that way with the kinds of films that have been opening? Gone Girl is one of the few entertaining movies in the whole lineup, one that isn’t depressing or hard to sit through. It’s creepy fun. But I could turn out to be wrong and you can all throw pies in my face and tell me how much you told me so. Another year, another dumb Oscar game.
I see it placed this way in the Best Picture race:
Boyhood
Selma
Birdman
Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Theory of Everything
Foxcatcher
Whiplash
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Next tier:
Unbroken
Interstellar
The Grand Budapest Hotel
A Most Violent Year
Wild
The Homesman
So I see it with potential but it’s not a slam dunk. If the critics praise it to high heavens that changes the perception. If it wins a major critics award, that changes perception. The Oscar race is fluid, not static. It is not determined by we who write about it. It is determined by industry voters, a giant consensus that picks and chooses.
Best Director has to be carefully considered this year because I think, with such a wide open year, you could be looking at two vastly different director lineups from the DGA to the Academy.
DGA might go:
Linklater
Inarritu
Fincher
Miller
Tyldum or Marsh
Academy might go:
Linklater
Inarritu
Miller
Chazelle
Leigh
You just never know. Good thing we have a whole bunch of awards coming up that will help guide us into the right hole. Right now, we’re just stabbing at things that look like holes. That’s too big to be a space station!
If Unbroken has one problem it’s the score. It just kept telling us what we were supposed to feel. I think it would have been better served with less of an obvious/sentimental score. But that’s just me. Let’s wait to hear what the critics say.
Last thing, it would be nice if this moment was the moment Oscar bloggers stopped putting movies at the top of their list based on what they look like on paper. But you know that ain’t happening any time soon.
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Good writeup with the exception of the last sentence. It would be good if Oscar Bloggers stopped taking bribes to put movies at the top of their list. Everyone knows Unbroken wasn’t even finished before people started talking about award nominations. And then to have some loon go on a blog and say it’s the best movie they’ve ever seen on November 17 is really beyond ridiculous
I maintain that Munich is a legitimately great Spielberg film that is as thrilling and entertaining as it is thoughtful and challenging–which is to say, very, on both counts.
Also, “War Horse” is a great and masterful film
We saw “The Railway Man” earlier in the year. Very well acted & the subject matter is eerily similar to “Unbroken”. Many of the criticisms/praise of that film seem the same in most reviews that I’ve read. The one difference is that Anjelina is directing. She has that much buzz, clout, etc to get this film possible nominations. That is star power. Sasha was very clear in her discussions on Unbroken. I thought it was very fair. She’s taking hits here that are not deserved. Now I thought Gone Girl was overly praised. Seems pretty much a given that a film by David Fincher will be lauded.
all Jolie can do best is being a famous HO
Now I feel like a dumbass. I picked this to win BP a few months back.
Yeah but, War Horse actually had a fair amount of great reviews if you go and look (Metacritic/RT). I dont see Unbroken with 7 100s as of right now.
“Last thing, it would be nice if this moment was the moment Oscar bloggers stopped putting movies at the top of their list based on what they look like on paper.”
Yes, but also, Oscar bloggers should think a little beyond the plot (heroic story!) and the big names (Jolie!) before touting something as likely to win. The best info you can go on in predicting a movie to be big is the director. “War Horse” and “Munich” were reasonable predictions sight unseen because Spielberg. “American Hustle” and “Wolf of Wall Street” were reasonable predictions because Russell and Scorsese. Etc. Jolie has not proven herself yet, and so it was always an unwise bet to call “Unbroken” a top contender. The only good info is who’s behind the helm. Beyond that, Sasha’s absolutely right to be skeptical about big predictions for movies that have not been seen.
Aside from the scene many have alluded to or explicitly mentioned, I would argue that Munich was the Best Film of 2005…
M1, you got it. I wasn’t even thinking of the violence, I was thinking of that slow-mo climax and that music. It felt like it came from any director BUT Spielberg.
Some of us also know of O’Connell’s talent via Skins.
Well, all those Brangeloonies are calling Sasha and respected, actual film critics ‘haters ‘now since they didn’t like Jolie’s film that much. Well, I had feeling that this movie wasn’t going to be that great, even though Angelina Jolie campaigned her self out out to the max with all this made up bullshit that Unbroken was going to dominate the Oscars. Neither the directing, scripting,or the whole plot was particularly praised. Jack O ‘Connell however got good reviews for his acting. That Miyavi dude’s acting wasn’t really praised either( what acting can you expect from a pop star?), yet he was being hyped up as a front runner for Best Supporting Actor I remember. I think only Jack O Connell seems to only have a chance for an Oscar for his acting. The only Oscar nom or win this movie might get.
M1, are you talking about Munich or Unbroken?
“Aside from one cringe-worthy, maybe laughably bad, moment I thought it was excellently made.”
Are you talking about that sex scene at the end intercut with those scenes of graphic violence? If so, I agree.
As a number of posters on here have highlighted, the first British reviews have appeared and they’re not good. The Guardian gives it 3 stars out 5 saying “there’s something faintly stodgy and safety-first about the endeavour”. Tim Robey in The Telegraph calls it “the misleadingly awards-tipped Unbroken”, and adds ‘the film settles into a Forrest Gumpian groove that doesn’t glorify the human spirit so much as sap it.’
The film may also suffer at the box office as Jack O’Connell is an unknown in the US – in Britain he’s done a couple of highly acclaimed Brit-fliks ‘Starred Up’ and ‘71’.
Oh man, I was seriously thinking Unbroken sounds like 2014’s War Horse, too! Movie with the most hype going in, reactions are mixed, but we gotta fill that BP lineup, so it’s probably in anyway.
“great, now for the next month we get to see the finger-wagging and listen to the cluck-cluck-clucking from all the people who haven’t seen Unbroken, scolding and nagging like they know more about Unbroken than someone who has seen it. great, just great.”
Yes Ryan. And we can also enjoy those coming on here to point and laugh Ha Ha Gone Girl didn’t win and Ha Ha Selma wasn’t nominated and Let’s misinterpret what Awardsdaily mean and Ask why do you talk about women in film all the time?
Gulp, Sigh and Yawn.
I’ve been skeptical about Unbroken since I first saw the original trailer. It looked too good, too polished. There was something off about it. It could be the script which I’ve said had too many cooks in one kitchen. I’m not trashing it sight unseen, I saw minutes of trailer footage and made an early judgment call then. I hope it turns out better than people are saying but I’m not too surprised by this reaction.
Bryce, I remember the hype for Munich like it was yesterday. It was hyped like hell in January all through the end of the year. Shit it was still being filmed a few months before release I believe. I haven’t watched it since release, and I’m sure it’s gotten better with age, but it didn’t really hit any backlash. The reviews were very good but it had impossible hype to live up to. It also featured many quiet moments that I’m not quite sure everyone was expecting. Aside from one cringe-worthy, maybe laughably bad, moment I thought it was excellently made.
Variety doesn’t like it. The Wrap is unenthusiastic. The Guardian and the Telegraph hate it. Oops, there goes the Oscar front runner.
If, and this is a big if, Unbroken doesn’t make it to the Oscar stage, the rumor about the studio demanding a recut will blow up big.
Paddy, I’ve skeptical along the way, but never made it official until last night — so you beat me to it then. I agree that as an Oscar player, at the moment, its prospect seem to mirror those of WAR HORSE. Similarities end there though.
Can’t believe all those claiming Sasha was trashing Unbroken. No she wasn’t. She did not believe in the hype that it was going to be a multi-award winning Oscar contender like AJ’s PR team hyped it out to be. Must be silly brangelina fans from Celebitchy and JustJared coming here to trash Sasha for her honest opinion. Sorry but AJ still hasn’t proved to be Clint Eastwood yet it seems. And so far from the Gaurdian and Telagraph reviews about it, Unbroken might not even make it to the Oscars t all. You can tell Angelina badly wants that Best Director Oscar. She was too afraid of bad reviews that she or Universal put an embargo until Dec 2. Well look at highly acclaimed directors like Ridly Scott, who is being trashed left, right and enter for Exodus or Nolan, whose reviews for Interstellar weren’t that great either. They have no problems with receiving horrible reviews. A director, you have to be okay wit criticism. Which Angelia wanted to avoid by putting an embargo or Universal did.
‘The War Horse of 2014’ is almost too apt a way of describing the Unbroken scenario, but I think that you’re right, Paddy. It’s going to take some effort to make a strong enough lifeboat for this movie to keep it from drowning…
The Guardian isn’t too appreciative either:
…there’s a reined-in, by-the-book quality to much of the film-making that doesn’t exactly add to its impact. Zamperini’s is an inspiring story all right, but in Jolie’s hands it’s all a bit “inspirational” – quote-unquote.”
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/dec/01/unbroken-review-angelina-jolie-jack-o-connell-louis-zamperini-oscar-bait
Feels like the War Horse of 2014 for me. Big studio project, WWII setting, lots of buzz, hit with a less enthusiastic response than hoped for, an Oscar contender nonetheless on the back of the prestige and its considerable commercial potential. War Horse was the first film in some time to score an Oscar nomination for Best Picture without any corresponding acting, writing, directing or editing recognition from the Academy – Unbroken appears to be an a roughly similar position currently, based on early word. One way or another, when a film is essentially ruled out of vying for the big win, we can comfortably take it off our prediction lists for major awards nominations. So, Bryce, you’re wise to omit Angelina from your Best Director predictions – she was never even on mine to begin with.
The estimable The Telegraph scathes UNBROKEN with a 2 out of 5 stars review!
“Besides, the last part of Hillenbrand’s book – about Louie’s obsession with inflicting a bloody revenge on his tormentor – is wholly beyond the film’s remit. This more troubling layer to his story is sliced off, ruthlessly cauterised. To make a purely consoling myth out of his life, Louie must simply believe, triumph and survive, as inspirationally as possible, and with no inner contradictions to spike the brew. Jolie has made a 137-minute long film that gets us barely further than a poster, and O’Connell is the poster-boy.”
And who’s really going to take the fall?
“Jack O’Connell’s smashing trajectory as a star also hits some bumps here, for reasons not wholly his fault. He’s at his best at sea, in the middle stretches when Louie and two fellow crew-members from his shot-down bomber (Domhnall Gleeson, Finn Wittrock) drift 2,000 miles on a leaking life-raft, dodging shark attacks and Japanese strafing runs. The logic of survival here is more practical, the you-can-do-it rhetoric unspoken, and more reliably compelling.” http://bit.ly/1vB0oWq
I had a hunch that Miss Stone was sort of “meh” about Unbroken, but, I’m not fazed by it! I appreciate this part: “Her respect, admiration, and yes, love for Louis Zamperini shines through the film. It is a heartfelt dedication to a truly exceptional man. Does that make it a good movie? It has its moments. ” I will continue to root for the movie until I watch it for myself and will root for it afterwards all the way throughout the award seasons. It’s a cliché to say, but you know, you can’t please everyone!
#Bless!
Anyway, about Gone Girl. YES! It’s “creepy fun” all right! That chemistry between Pike and Affleck is great. We all think this, we all know they’d pronounce beautiful babies! You know it!
I was sure this would be a piece of shit. Just because it’s made by a superstar it doesn’t mean it’s less bad
Actually, I kinda like seeing people make big stabs in the dark when it comes to the BP race early on. It’s fun to see how right (or very wrong) you were at the beginning of the year vs. the end. I, too, think Gone Girl is very worthy of a BP nod, especially with this year’s lineup. Can we go back to 5 nominees now?
Being the best Hobbit movie is like being the valedictorian of summer school.
The race will be between Boyhood and Selma
I wasn’t paying attention to the race, but I can only imagine the kind of hype something like MUNICH had early in the year, and then it kind of backfired once people got to see it? You know the famous “backlash”? Is that how it went? I don’t know. The thing is, MUNICH indeed is pretty great, isn’t it? I presume that helped it coast through all the “it’s no SCHIDLER’S LIST” pushbacks that it must have gotten. A quick twitter survey amongst those at the screening last night in addition to your piece and others suggest nobody was particularly blown away in any shape or form.
Finally, huge deal, folks.
Last night I predicted that Jolie will not make the Best Director line-up.
I know, I know — took balls, but I did it. My big gamble this season.
Thank you Sasha and particularly Danny for your honest thoughts.
Cant wait to see it down the road, but its very interesting to hear both of your takes.
Fascinating to see Sasha mention Passion of the Christ (eeeek, brutal violence to watch) as a reference!
And Danny, your level-headed responses are mighty welcome amid a sea of hyperbolic twitter adoration/dismissal.
“A winner happens organically. It is seen, then it wins. There are very few ideas so big they can trump a movie being seen.”
This is very true.
Couldn’t we just stick with that dictum and stop letting on about what motives there are to dislike a movie prior to seeing it. I simply don’t believe Sasha would choose to deliberately berate Unbroken if – deep down – she knew it was great. That’s ludicrous.
okay, serious, serious wishful thinking going on but is Inherent Vice really so far out, it’s been far better received than many of the contenders, shows immense skill with it’s period detail and aren’t the 1970’s the era many of those Oscar voters considered too conservative grew up in, nostalgia vote? Like I said wishful thinking but it’s a shame that a film that’s so enjoyable and unique is being completely dismissed in the Oscar conversation. I’m a dreamer but I’d say it has as good a chance as that other work of bizarre wonder, Gone Girl.
great, now for the next month we get to see the finger-wagging and listen to the cluck-cluck-clucking from all the people who haven’t seen Unbroken, scolding and nagging like they know more about Unbroken than someone who has seen it. great, just great.
@monica
Sasha hasn’t been trashing unbroken the last two weeks. She’s simply taken a small amount of umbrage at the idea of anointing it before it has even be seen. Seems pretty darn reasonable to me!
The audience reaction seemed quite strong. The title cards at the end got laughs and “awws” and applause. (for anyone who’s read the book, they conveniently omit some of Louis’s more questionable conduct later in life). I can’t tell how much of the applause was for the film itself and how much was for the real-life men and women behind the scenes. Not to mention our never-ending love as a country for all things world war 2. I mean, look, the pedigree’s there. You can’t ask for a better team behind the camera. Moreover, you can’t ask for a better STORY. It’s lined up pretty perfectly for a strike (hell, the bumpers are probably even up!). I just don’t know if all the pieces fit together to become more than their individual parts. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if it wins. Nor would I be tremendously upset (this isn’t an American Hustle-type dog, or an ultimately hollow prom queen like Argo, or a contemptible piece of soap opera like Crash). But it’s not the best movie of the year.
lol @ the oscars. boyhood – best pic, under the skin – best director, birdman – best original screenplay, gone girl – best adapted screenplay. jake gylenhaal for best actor. julianne moore leading actress, agata in ida for supporting actress, josh brolin – supporting actor. deakins – best cinematography. in a perfect world 🙂
The Great Anne Thompson has spoken.
@akstanwyck: Unbroken delivers: Q & A w/ Jolie next. She, Coens, O’Connell, Miyavi, Desplat, editors & Deakins Oscar contenders. http://t.co/Ur47ZaxqJ7
Definitely don’t believe you’re alone in thinking ‘Gone Girl’ will score a Best Pic nom (at least, I hope you’re not!). Saw it opening weekend after reading the book and liked it, didn’t love it, but have seen it two more times since and it’s held up extraordinarily well as a smart, consistently engaging and entertaining film (might’ve just needed to detach myself from the book first). Anyways, with the cast/creative involved, the huge numbers for the film and just the continual buzz around it, I don’t see it losing out on a nod. My third viewing was at a nearly sold-out show in a small town in Washington state this past Monday while visiting family … it’s clearly still connecting with a lot of people, and I hope it’s a huge player this awards season.
Anyways, although it’s just been a lot of knee-jerk Twitter reactions so far, the race really seems to be coming down to ‘Boyhood’ and ‘Selma.’ ‘Birdman’ continuing its momentum and winning best ensemble at the SAGs wouldn’t surprise me much, but I just don’t see it going all the way. Having seen ‘Boyhood’ a couple times, I’m completely OK with it winning (and sure hope Patricia Arquettte will), but I’m really anxious to see ‘Selma’ now.
Sure hope we can avoid letting another mess like ‘American Hustle’ into the Oscar race, but I’ll probably be surprised.
@Danny, approaching the level of the LOTR trilogy is plenty for me to write home about. Can’t wait to see the final movie.
@ Danny how was the audience reaction to the film. and do you think the Academy will go for this. i am referring to Unbroken. i cant take Sahsa opinion seriously since she had been trashing the movie for the past 2 weeks because of Selms
Christian, Into the Woods ain’t winning anything. It is a fun, charming movie. But it’s quite a bit of a mess.
“A winner happens organically. It is seen, then it wins. There are very few ideas so big they can trump a movie being seen.”
Why a lot of people can not understand this, is beyond me.
Glad to hear Unbroken is not a bad movie. I’m definitely curious to hear from the critics about it. Well, we’ll see how far it will go in this race…
Also Selma isnt even top 2 on any gurus of Gold except for your vote Sasha, Sorry to burst your bubble but it isnt winning any Oscars.
Yay for Into the Woods!
Any truth to Page 6′ contention that Angelina Jolie turned in “too arty” a movie & Universal cut it to be more commercial?
no surpirse Sasha who has been talking crap about Unbroken for weeks on here and twitter, doesnt like it. Good thing pundits who have no bias(cough Selma, Gone Girl) seem to think the movie will do very well with audience and the Academy. Poland, Tapley, and Sahsa were all shitt talking Unbroken yesterday even and Mark Harris had to tell them that they shouldnt go into the screening with their mindset. No surprise they are the only 3 pundits who have an issue with the movie. lol at you putting Unbroken as 2nd tier.
I also just got home from The Hobbit. It’s easily the best of the trilogy and the only one that even approaches the LOTR movies in terms of quality. But in the grand scheme of things it’s nothing to write home about.
Hmm.. I’m a little surprised to be honest! I saw it this morning and thought it was very good. Not one of my favorites of the year, but I’d say it should definitely be considered one of if not the frontrunner at this point. For the first hour of the movie I really thought “Unbroken is unbeatable” – it certainly felt like a paint-by-numbers Oscar movie, there were very few surprises, but it was hitting its moments and not missing a beat. But the third act fell a little flat for me. As soon as they get to the coal prison camp, the movie seems to lose its narrative momentum. And unfortunately, the climactic “plank” moment just doesn’t hit for me. Maybe it’s the score (I didn’t find it too much like Sasha did, I just found it unmemorable), maybe it’s some strange acting from Miyavi (he doesn’t quite get “there,” plus his reactions are a little odd – a comment he made in the Q&A after illuminated what was going on with the character there, but it’s not clear in the movie), or maybe it’s something subtler in the editing – but what should have been the Braveheart “Freedom!” moment or the Shawshank dance in the rain just doesn’t land. I’m also a soft-hearted marshmallow with just about anything, but I wasn’t ever especially moved by the movie.
Now that sounds like a lot of negatives for what is a pretty good movie. Perhaps it really is a victim of its own hype in that way. It’s hard not to nitpick when the bar has been set so high beforehand. I would not be surprised to see this win it all – but now like Sasha I’m interested in hearing a wider reaction. (I was a raving lunatic in favor of Interstellar when I saw it and was honestly gobsmacked by the dissenting opinions, so shows what I know).
Dave Poland didn’t appear to like it at all. Will be fascinating to see just what team Selma will do considering Pitt’s involvement.