We only have one day to do this so let’s do it fast.
The AFI will announce their top ten of the year tomorrow. So far, we’re mostly seeing just what the critics think. We’ll have a better idea of maybe how the Oscar race is going to go – whether it will confirm the race thus far, or completely rewrite it to include the bigger studio films that make money and drive viewers to the telecast. The pundits so far have been predicting mostly a different lineup for the race, one that the critics have kind of, sort of shattered. But they’re still the critics. We don’t know if their feelings will be shared with the industry overall or not.
In short, nobody knows ANYTHING. This could be the year the pundits are ALL WRONG across the board. There is no unifying idea among varying pundits anyway. Usually there is a solid block of known films. But this year was declared “wide open,” with many of the big-name movies falling short, or disappointing – leaving room for films that came out earlier in the year to be re-evaluated. By the way, this same dynamic plays out every year only we have to relearn this lesson every year. It’s like Groundhog Day.
But might this year be very different? We have movies like Selma, Into the Woods, the Imitation Game, Gone Girl, Theory of Everything almost completely ignored by critics (except the Washington DC Film critics). We have the child/man picks of Guardians of the Galaxy and The Lego Movie in the place of actual movie movies, which complicates matters somewhat. These are perfectly fine, entertaining movies but they’re really great illustrations of the way things are changing, leaning in the direction of PG-13 fare and away from movies aimed at adults.
Academy voters, being old-timers and grownups, likely won’t go for those movies but remember, they nominated Up and Toy Story 3 for Best picture. Pixar, but still. Ten nomination slots, but still. In order for a movie to get in with the current ballot system, it would have to make a voter’s top five to get in. So even with tomorrow’s announcement of ten from the AFI and the announcement of ten from the Producers Guild, we still might not know how Oscar is going to go.
Last year I predicted these ten to be named by the AFI — and the ones that made it into the actual AFI 10 Movies of the Year are in bold:
12 Years a Slave
Nebraska
The Butler (they picked Fruitvale Station)
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Captain Phillips
American Hustle
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
So I only missed one out of ten. That isn’t bad. I wonder if I will have the same luck again tomorrow – who knows, right?
With that said, here are my predictions for the AFI’s announcement tomorrow. I invite you to enter yours as well!
Boyhood
Birdman
Gone Girl
Selma
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
Into the Woods
Interstellar or Unbroken
The films I’m not so sure of are the two British movies: The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything. I don’t know if they qualify or not so I have to reserve judgement there.
Here are the AFI’s previous top tens – in bold are films that went on to be nominated for the Oscar – (worth noting: there are different jurors every year):
2012
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISÉRABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
MOONRISE KINGDOM
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
8 out of 9, not including Amour. Year before that:
2011
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
7 out of 9, missing Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and … The Artist, which was ineligible, like Amour last year.
2010
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
These were 9/10 – missing only … The King’s Speech, also ineligible.
2009
Coraline
The Hangover (Golden Globe Award for Best Musical or Comedy Picture)
The Messenger
Precious
A Serious Man
A Single Man
Sugar
Up (Academy Award for Best Animated Feature)
Up in the Air
The Hurt Locker (Academy Award for Best Motion Picture)
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
Top 11? LOL
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash
I wonder if the Imitation Game mention is one of those “special awards” for Brit films…
woah, major typo/autocorrect; *What’s with these groups
Also, so much for “morning”
So apparently the AFI announcement won’t be until 1:30 now? That’s what I’m seeing on Twitter. What’s what the these groups this year? The NBR announcement was much later than usual as well…
a bit more vulgar but I think this one takes the cake AL…
“Clark: Where do you think you’re going? Nobody’s leaving. Nobody’s walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family Christmas. No, no. We’re all in this together. This is a full-blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We’re gonna press on, and we’re gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny fucking Kaye. And when Santa squeezes his fat white ass down that chimney tonight, he’s gonna find the jolliest bunch of assholes this side of the nuthouse.”
“This year doesn’t have a similar juggernaut standing in Boyhood’s path.”
Here I have to disagree. If I remember correctly “Titanic” was a major late entry into the race – it premiered on December 19th and started it’s long and stable run at the boxoffice. Out of the late entries with boxoffice potential this year we have … let’s say three. The last installment of “Hobbit” will be a moneymaker, but will it have the quality and emotional impact of the “Return of the King”? I doubt it. “Into the woods” might be something more than just another twist on the classic fairytale(s). People are talking quietly about it, but it’s got everything to be a movie that’ll go all the way with audiences and at the boxoffice. But will it? It’s a hit and miss with Marshall, so no one can be sure. The one with least doubts, but also with the smallest B.O. potential is “Unbroken”. Uplifting story about faith and survival, not much controversy about it, Angelina directing can only go to the movie’s benefit. Being a bankable actor with a pretty face didn’t stop Costner or Redford from winning Director and Picture for their first features, and “Unbroken” isn’t Jolie’s first shot at directing. IMHO opinion, if it strikes the right chord with the audiences, “Unbroken” is your juggernaut that may very well pull off a “Slumdog” (no acting nods, but wins everywhere else), or maybe a more modest win, but still with BP and BD. “Boyhood” becomes “Sideways” and wins only screenplay. Yeah, I can see that happening. Believe me, there are potential juggernauts out there, ones maybe not as huge as “Titanic”, but certainly having the abilty to steal “Boyhood’s” thunder.
Sweet! Here is the YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdiXSsFp29s
LCBASEBALL22,
Yeah, it’s my favorite Christmas movie of all-time as well. Every moment is hilarious.
This is my favorite quote from the movie:
Aunt Bethany: “What’s that sound? You hear it? It’s a funny squeaky sound.”
Uncle Lewis: “You couldn’t hear a dump truck driving through a nitroglycerin plant.”
LOL, those are just two of many classic quotes in what is personally my favorite Christmas movie of all time!
@RYAN ADAMS
I’m curious, did you still like/appreciate Whiplash? I’ve found that a lot of my friends are mixed on the film (or at least its “message”). I personally loved the film, but it does seem to be a love it or hate it proposition (which is fine with me).
Classic quotes:
Clark: “Hey! If any of you are looking for any last-minute gift ideas for me, I have one. I’d like Frank Shirley, my boss, right here tonight. I want him brought from his happy holiday slumber over there on Melody Lane with all the other rich people and I want him brought right here, with a big ribbon on his head, and I want to look him straight in the eye and I want to tell him what a cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit he is! Hallelujah! Holy shit! Where’s the Tylenol?”
Bethany: “Is your house on fire, Clark?”
Clark: “No, Aunt Bethany, those are the Christmas lights.”
AFI @AmericanFilm 3m3 minutes ago
“Announced soon: this year’s #AFIAwards honorees. Stay tuned”
So 11:59 AM? lol
While we’re waiting, must say I love the Christmas Vacation cover picture on the AFI’s Twitter page!
so if morning is to be taken literally then they must be announcing sometime in the next hour?
any minute now
Well I noticed on twitter they replied to someone’s prediction with “find out tomorrow morning” and it’s almost 11 AM here on the West Coast, so if morning is to be taken literally then they must be announcing sometime in the next hour?
k, here goes
Boyhood
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Selma
Whiplash
===
although I confess that this is basically a list of 10 American movies that I personally most interesting, so it would not hurt my feeling at all if Into the Woods replaced Interstellar.
[EDIT: see me losing my mind there? wtf am I on about? I forgot that I didn’t even include Interstellar. I’m so torn up about feeling weird about enjoying it. I guess Interstellar is my ALT pick, and Into the Woods is 2nd ALT.]
And in fact I’d be happy to see just about anything honorable replace Whiplash because that movie (and its reception) is mainly interesting to me because I find its message appalling so it’s interesting to find myself so alone in that perception. But it’s the big deal indie of the season, no denying that. Whiplash this year’s scarier Juno, and look how wrong wrong I was about that
messgem.Well, apparently they took it out while I was posting, bummer! Should’ve copied them! But the usual suspects were there: Birdman, Boyhood, Selma for BP/BD (+The Lego Movie, Ida as BP), Julianne Moore… No love for Gone Girl though.
The Online Film Critics Society also announced its nominees:
http://www.ofcs.org/awards/2014-awards-18th-annual/
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Selma
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
A Most Violent Year
American Sniper
Inherent Vice
I am hoping Interstellar to make the list.
Forgive me for asking if this has already been answered, but when can we expect an announcement? Anybody know? 10 a.m. LA time?
I sent my predictions three seconds ago and already hate them. Partly because it occurs to me now that THEORY and IMITATION might not be eligible, and partly because I can’t see this list not having LEGO. Here are my revised, wholly unofficial guesses:
Boyhood
Birdman
Selma
Gone Girl
Whiplash
Into the Woods
Wild
A Most Violent Year
The LEGO Movie
American Sniper
Are we going to see A Most Violent Year on AFI list? This is the most important question.
How is The Babadook eligible for an AFI citation? Great movie, and it’s definitely the sort of critically acclaimed more genre’y thing they kind of go for, but I thought it was a wholly Australian production.
“It’s a movie that well deserves every single award and alocade this year, but I fear that it might share the fait of “L.A. Confidential”. ”
A key difference between LA Confidential and Boyhood, though, is that LA Confidential was up against the behemoth Titanic, which was becoming a huge worldwide box-office hit right as guild and Oscar voting was going on. Titanic became just too big of a force to ignore. This year doesn’t have a similar juggernaut standing in Boyhood’s path.
AFI Top 10:
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Into The Woods
The Lego Movie
Selma
Unbroken
That’s only 8 but I can’t make up my mind between Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Whiplash for the last two spots…
Special Awards (like they did for The Artist and The King’s Speech
The Imitation Game Or The Theory of Everything Or Both
@JTE – Thanks
@CORVO – Well, that’s what I kinda said. I’m guessing “Birdman” isn’t any movie’s “safe and conservative alternative”, but right now looks like one of the frontrunners, along with “Boyhood” and a couple of others. The standard safe-choice movies in the game are “The Imitation Game”, “Theory of Everything”, “Unbroken” and … well yes, “Selma”. And out of these four, and at this point of the race, “Selma” looks strongest.
@KOLEŚ
It’s Boyhood “the safe and conservative alternative” to Birdman, not the opposite.
Kolés: Good luck with your exam!!:)
Oh yeah, one more thing. On Thursday I’m having my final graduation exam at The Łodź Film School in Poland, and the head of my exam comity is non other than Jarosław Kamiński, my long time teacher and editor of IDA, the movie I’m now sure will win the first Foreign Film Oscar for Poland. I’m so fucking proud.
I loved “Boyhood” and it’s easy for me to imagine that it’s going to sweep the critics awards. But the idea of it winning the guilds and BP at the Oscars, as beautiful as it may be, does not go down so easily. I hope that it’s unorthodox approach to pacing (which is nothing short of brilliant) and story structure won’t put off the conservatives. It’s a movie that well deserves every single award and alocade this year, but I fear that it might share the fait of “L.A. Confidential”. I haven’t seen “Birdman” yet, but from what I know by now, it’s not exacly the safe and conservative alternative to “Boyhood”.
But I’m still glad that both “Boyhood” and “Birdman”, but also “Inherent Vice” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” aren’t getting shunned early in the season and are doing more then just clingin to a single mention by the critics, but are very much in the game. Shame you can’t say that about “Gone Girl”, which is not getting right traction but may yet recover and “Foxcatcher”, which is dead in the water unless a miracle happens.
Happy to help, Ryan! But it still looks like Saving Mr. Banks is bolded for an Oscar nomination.
Here’s the situation, Danny. On the list of last year’s AFI 10 movies, Sasha has titles in bold face that she correctly predicted the AFI would choose. Nine titles in bold. Nine titles Sasha predicted – including Saving Mr Banks.
In all the other sets of AFI lists in this post, bold font does indicate a match with the Oscars.
That threw me off a little when I first scanned it. So I tried to make the two different reasons for bold font fit my misunderstanding. What I did made things worse, so I have now refixed it to try to clear things up.
2013 – bold font indicates a match between AFI and Sasha’s own AFI predictions.
2009-2012 – bold font indicates a match between AFI and Oscar’s Best Picture nominees.
See what’s happening with the bold font now? Or is my explanation just making things muddier?
One good thing to come out of this mix-up: we’re talking about Saving Mr Banks again.
Boyhood
Birdman
Selma
Whiplash
Foxcatcher
American Sniper
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into The Woods
The LEGO Movie
Gone Girl
Happy to help, Ryan! But it still looks like Saving Mr. Banks is bolded for an Oscar nomination. (Let’s just leave it as it is, shall we, and retcon history a little bit for the better?)
SAG Award Nominations are due tomorrow at noon. I just cast my ballot. Here were my choices for those who are interested! (alphabetical order, 5 max for each category)
Lead Actor
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Matthew McConaughey (Interstellar)
Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice)
Lead Actress
Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Gena Rowlands (Six Dance Lessons in Six Weeks)
Reese Witherspoon (wild)
Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Martin Short (Inherent Vice)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
(Honorable Mentions – Alec Baldwin, Still Alice; Nat Wolff, Palo Alto)
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (Interstellar)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Tilda Swinton (Snowpiercer)
Katherine Waterston (Inherent Vice)
(Honorable Mentions – Laura Dern, Wild)
Outstanding Cast
Birdman
Boyhood
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Stunt Ensemble
Fury
The Hobbit : Battle of the Five Armies
In Alphabetical Order:
A Most Violent Year
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Boyhood
Edge of Tomorrow
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Lego Movie
Selma
Whiplash
Birdman
Boyhood
Whiplash
Selma
A Most Violent Year
Interstellar
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
American Sniper
I don’t think Saving Mr. Banks made the cut last year, Sasha!
I might have messed something up when I was proofreading. I’ll find out tomorrow what I did and fix it.
[EDIT: ok, I see what I did wrong. That was my mistake. I undid what I did and now what Sasha wrote is back to normal. Thanks, Danny.]
Wow! You are all predicting Nightcrawler to be named?? If that happens, I would jump for joy, but I just don’t see it. If any of you know me, or think you know me, I’m just fine with being wrong. But I don’t think Nightcrawler will be named. I guess we’ll see soon enough. 🙂
I don’t think Saving Mr. Banks made the cut last year, Sasha! (and a shame too)
Boyhood
Birdman
Selma
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Nightcrawler
American Sniper
The Lego Movie
Boyhood
Birdman
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Unbroken
Whiplash
Wild
[Mark, I’m not sure about the “missing 5/10” — it might be a typo. I’ll find out, but for now let’s just remove that line.]
Sasha or anyone……
What is the “missing 5/10” mean?
I think that AFI will name these 10:
Boyhood
Unbroken
Whiplash
Gone Girl
Grand Budapest Hotel
Birdman
Selma
Foxcatcher
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Yeah, these are not in order
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Selma
Into the Woods
Interstellar
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
-American Sniper
– A Most Violent Year
-Birdman
-Boyhood
-Foxcatcher
-Gone Girl
-Grand Budapest Hotel
-Imitation Game
-Selma
-Unbroken
My guess in no order:
Birdman
Boyhood
Selma
Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Into the Woods
Lego Movie
Most Violent Year
Whiplash
Not necessarily what I want to see but what I think they’ll pick…
Selma
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
American Sniper
The LEGO Movie
Alternately I think we could see something like Edge of Tomorrow or Guardians of the Galaxy make the list. Didn’t Star Trek make their list in ’09?
I hope it is different, Sasha. I hope it is. I don’t know what’s American and what isn’t but I’ll go with my BP predictions from yesterday.
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
NIGHTCRAWLER
THE LEGO MOVIE
INHERENT VICE
GONE GIRL
WHIPLASH
INTERSTELLAR
INTO THE WOODS
EXODUS
I decided I’m not going to worry about whether or not The Imitation Game is eligible. I have a hunch it is.
I predict these 10:
A Most Violent Year
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
Selma
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Unbroken
Whiplash