The Best Actress race has come down to six names. Julianne Moore in the lead with Still Alice, right behind her Reese Witherspoon for Wild and Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl. Next in line would be Felicity Jones as Jane Hawking in The Theory of Everything. The fifth slot is still pretty tricky. The critics put forth their support for Marion Cotillard. But the Screen Actors Guild went for Jennifer Aniston over Cotillard, and what I thought that fifth slot would be, the very deserving Hilary Swank.
The problem for Swank is twofold. 1) she’s won Best Actress twice already. That removes a sense of urgency to nominate her. Aniston has never been nominated and, like Sandra Bullock, has been a reliable work horse and popular actress for years. 2) The Homesman has not been embraced as it might have been, or as it should have been. Swank’s brutally raw performance was not uplifting enough for many women critics who seem to need their heroines to always be empowered, positive role models (blech, how boring). And the way Swank’s character disappears from the film left many unsatisfied. I thought it was a daring move for director Tommy Lee Jones. The Homesman was, for me, one of the best films I saw this year but the Oscar race is a popularity contest. Usually the most liked celebrities, if they really work the circuit, get in.
That leaves us with five–
Moore – SAG, GG
Witherspoon — SAG, GG
Pike — SAG, GG
Jones – SAG, GG
Aniston — SAG, GG
There is some wiggle room, I think, with Aniston and Jones but at this stage of the game I would consider them locked. Surprise nominees would be Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Beyond the Lights in a last minute surge, or Cotillard.
Our winner: Julianne Moore for Still Alice
Best Supporting Actress possibilities are wide-ranging, once again, with potent roles women because that’s mainly what women get to do in Hollywood films – be supporting characters. But we seem to have our locked five with this group:
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood –SAG, GG
Emma Stone, Birdman — SAG, GG
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game –SAG
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods — SAG, GG
And then we get to the fifth slot, which will most likely be filled by Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, which earned a Golden Globe nomination but not the SAG. The SAG went to Naomi Watts for St. Vincent. There was a last minute push for Tilda Swinton in Snowpiercer but that hasn’t materialized. It certainly could show up as a surprise pick by the Swinton-loving Academy. Laura Dern was once the favorite to be nominated in the fifth but my money, right now, is on Chastain.
Our winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor is likewise locked, with the first four names showing up everywhere:
JK Simmons, Whiplash SAG, GG
Edward Norton, Birdman SAG, GG
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher SAG, GG
Robert Duvall, The Judge SAG, GG
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood SAG, GG
The problem with choosing a winner in this category is that it’s likely going to come down to Best Picture heat. While I think Simmons has this, Norton could be in the more liked film overall, Birdman. There’s just no telling what the Academy will do but if Birdman is nominated for Best Picture and Whiplash isn’t, you can probably figure Norton could take it in a surprise win. Smart money right now is on Simmons.
Our winner: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Best Actor
The year started with the Best Actor category filled up by the time Telluride rolled around. Michael Keaton took the lead out of Venice with his undeniably brilliant, vulnerable turn as Riggan in Birdman. The next one to launch was Benedict Cumberbatch with his heartbreaking portrayal of Alan Turing. I just watched it again last night and it’s just a dazzling performance, top to bottom. Then came The Theory of Everything, with Eddie Redmayne as the charming, brilliant Stephen Hawking. Such a great performance by Redmayne, whose career so far hadn’t really hinted at this kind of physical transformation he was capable of. These three contenders are the stars of the top contending Best Pictures. It’s a toss up between the three of them at the moment for the win.
There was also Steve Carell out of Cannes with his icy turnaround performance as John Dupont in Foxcatcher. Carell lost to Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner, the other strong contender in the Best Actor race. And then there is David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King, Jr., one of the best performances I saw all year. Finally, the biggest threat for the fifth slot is Jake Gyllenhaal, as a creepy sociopath in Nightcrawler.
It’s looking, so far, like this:
Michael Keaton, Birdman SAG, GG
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything SAG, GG
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game SAG, GG
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler SAG, GG
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher SAG, GG
David Oyelowo, Selma – GG
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner – Cannes
Generally speaking, the SAG Best Actor category usually goes on to be nominated at the Oscars. But, as you can see, it’s a mind blowing toss-up. The only reason I have little sympathy for the embarrassment of riches in the Best Actor category is that it should be equally crowded for women. There should be more parts for women and I hope that women can eventually be afforded the same freedom as men to explore the wide spectrum of the human experience. Just look at the flak David Fincher and Gillian Flynn have taken — especially from Manohla Dargis at the New York Times who not only can’t let it go but feels the need to bring it up yet again in her Best Of list. Nobody thinks twice about Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher being negative portrayals of men. But when it comes to women? They have to be put in that cage continually.
Okay, back to Best Actor — I don’t know which way this thing is going to go, honestly. It’s likely Keaton’s to loose, I figure, based on what will be the overall popularity of Birdman. But Redmayne would make me nervous because his is the kind of performance where the heart gets involved. The heart can often override any other impulse in picking a winner.
Finally, there is the very popular Cumberbatch, who plays a troubled genius with Asperger’s who also must suppress his sexuality.
If Redmayne doesn’t just take it from the outset, it could come down to how the winners appear at the mic. The most charming of the three could tip the odds in his favor. Publicity will, as usual, count for a lot, but not all.
As of now, we’re at a stalemate.
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Most people at this stage think that it’s pre-ordained that the acting winners will be Keaton, Moore, Simmons and Arquette. The one thing that alot of people are forgetting is that you have to go back to the 1997 acting winners (Nicholson, Hunt, Williams and Basinger) to find a quartet that didn’t include a winner from a biopic.
Anyone who thinks Benedict Cumberbatch is not going to be nominated is delusional.
I know I’m in the minority about this but I didn’t care for Steve Carrell’s performance in Foxcatcher. It was a monotonous, enervating performance. Timothy Spall, Jake Gyllenhaal, David Oyelowo and Ralph Fiennes all deserve to be nominated over Carrell. And then there’s Oscar Isaac.
Eddie Redmayne is amazing! …and should win.. An unforgettable performance!
Gyllenhaal deserves a nomination. Impressive transformation.
Cottilard gives an excellent performance and should certainly be nominated. She could win, though Julianne Moore is also a fantastic actress and will probably win it… she certainly deserves it too. Anne Dorval is also outstanding in the Canadian film Mommy.
Arquette should get it. She holds her film together..
Norton would get my vote.
Josh R. Tilda’s breakout performance was Orlando.
People: Keaton has this.
I just got home from EXODUS: GODS AND KINGS. I had hunch I was gonna love it and I do. My new favorite movie this year. I was already crying at the end and then when the first words appear on the screen, I lost it. I felt bad as I was looking at Christian Bale at the end because it’s a fantastic piece of work but if they nominated him every time he deserved it, they’d just have to name the thing after him. And not for nothing but Joel Edgerton had me rooting for Ramses. I’d nominate them both. This epic is EPIC, people. 😀
I think it’s important to remember that people like Jean Dujardin and Adrien Brody were able to win best actor because the films they were in were favorites to win best picture. The Pianist lost but Roman Polanski still won best director where as The Artist ended up winning best picture and best director. TIG and TOE are likely to lose out getting a best director nom and let’s be real, they aren’t winning best picture either. The top three films that should be favorite to win are Boyhood, Birdman and Selma. Oyelowo is playing MLK and DuVernay will probably be nominated for best director. And we all know about Birdman and Keaton. My point is it will be Keaton vs Oyelowo.
It’s sad that the male acting categories are always so much more interesting that female acting categories. Even my movie loving wife has little to no interest in the female acting categories every year. It always seems to be 1 or 2 really stand out performances and the rest is filler. Good filler, but filler. I forget if I read it one this page or not but I saw the best actress category described as “Best Picture not about a man” and it’s pretty accurate most of the time. The bright side is this years BA categories are probably the strongest in a while.
I object to the use of the phrase “Swinton-loving Academy,” given that the Academy has been decidedly UN-loving to my beloved Tilda since her Oscar win for Michael Clayton some 7 years ago. For there years running, they failed to nominate her stellar, acclaimed performances in Julia, I am Love, or We Need to Talk About Kevin, despite the fact that she received the National Board of Review Award and nominations from both SAG and the Golden Globes for the latter. Come to think of it, going back further, they didn’t nominate her for her breakout performance in The Deep End either, despite a Globe nomination to her credit for that one as well. If this is “loving”, I’d sure hate to see how they treat you when they REALLY don’t like you. Maybe we should ask Jennifer Jason Leigh…
European Film Awards about to begin.
Ida vs. Force Majeure for Best Picture?
Cotillard vs. Kulesza for Best Actress?
Hardy vs. Spall for Best Actor?
We’ll see…
Such a shame for Hilary Swank she is really out there supporting her film but 2 wins surely hurts,sometimes Oscars goes stone cold on you after being due or twice rewarded witness Sarandon,Field,Winslet, I thought should have received a 3rd nom for Conviction a few yrs ago,good film but starnge when Swank’s character is no longer the main focus,I agree that sort of killed her chances not that it should have,gr8 performance but Sashas right she’s not overdue and sometimes that sways things when theres a deglammer in the wings.
In the race for Best Actor,only one name will be mention all through this race: MICHAEL KEATON(The exception will be at the BAFTAS and at the Golden Globes for best drama actor).
On a side note, it’s a bit ironic for Ben Affleck. “Gone Girl” could score huge and he’s not even a longshot in Lead Actor, for, maybe, his career-best performance. Pike is a sure thing, Noon and Perry are in contention (even if Perry is more a longshot that could get in, if the film is really loved) but he has zero chances. Still, he is in the club of actors that has 2 Oscars, but none of them for acting… Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner,..
My Oscars rigth now (out of the film I’ve seen) in acting cathegories…
Actor: Michael Parks, Tusk
Actress: Rosemund Pike, Gone Girl
Supp. Actor: Patrick d’Assumçao, Stranger by the Lake
Supp. Actress: Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
Ensemble: (ex aequo) Snowpiercer & Stranger by the Lake
Cumberbatch, Redmayne, Carell – Their films will probably miss crucial Best Director nods which is something that shows the general appeal level of a film !
Oyelowo – Important historical character in American history in a BP and BD nominated film ! Just like Lincoln.
Keaton – He has not been around awards circle before. He did not have a good track record like say Julianne Moore so he is vulnerable.
Ava DuVernay’s Best Director nod (which is highly possible both in the DGA and AMPAS) would change everything in the Best Actor race !!
AMPAS will definitely want to award Selma in one way or another and Oyelowo who plays a very important character in American history just like Lincoln would be their pick for that. Just think about how easy Daniel Day Lewis won his third Oscar with that role!!
Hi Ryan and Sasha – glad to be back!
As a trained psychic and someone who truly thinks this year might be more dazzling then others have whispered to me (mostly at board meetings), I want to say get ready: Meryl Streep is going to win her fourth Oscar for Into the Woods. With such a weak lineup for Supporting Actress already (Patricia Arquette doesn’t really DO anything to validate a win, does she?), I am hearing talks from the spirits in my Psychic meetings that Streep will tie Katharine Hepburn for most acting Oscars (4). Here is why Streep will win:
1) She’s Meryl Streep. Come on.
2) She not only acts, she sings. This will be the first time she ever really shows us how well she can sing on screen (Mama Mia! Does not count)
3) Into the Woods will be a huge hit – something most nominated films this year will lack.
4) She plays a Witch- and in my book, Witches are lacking in the winners club for Academy Awards. Margaret Hamilton should have been the first witch to win for The Wizard of Oz in this category, but she wasn’t even nominated!
5) Streep hasn’t won in 3 years- while others have graced the stage time after time again, Meryl hasn’t won for a while and it’s about damn time she won again!!! (that last part was just me being a Streeper).
Earlier in this thread I wrote that “I think right now Oyelowo and Carell are better placed [than Gyllenhaal or Spall] because not as many will have seen Mr. Turner or Nightcrawler.” However, since then, I myself have seen “Nightcrawler.” And now I think I would predict Gyllenhaal over Carell. Don’t know how you watch this movie and not list him in your top 5. It’s the #1 best male performance I’ve seen this year, and that includes Redmayne (#2), Fiennes (#3), and Keaton (#4) (haven’t seen Carell, Cumberbatch, Oyelowo, or Spall yet). Gyllenhaal is venerated by now, and if people see this movie, they’ll have him high up on their lists, I think. So my doing a 180 on this within 24 hours shows how, as Sasha writes, that category is really really close!
I couldn’t get past the total absence of Amy Adams in this article. A year ago many thought she would finally win for this performance. She’s well respected in the industry (unlike Aniston?) and still has that sense of urgency. Cotillard is very good but in a thinly written character, defined by her circumstances — she had a better shot for Rust & Bone, one would think, at least based on the performance. Hilary is remarkable in The Homesman, but again, like Cotillard, it’s not SO different from the typical well reviewed Hilary Swank performance. Rawer than anything she’s done since Million Dollar Baby, but a similar personality type. And the film itself while still good doesn’t feel like a sufficient Best Actress vehicle, like Two Days, One Night. Aniston has the buzz now, but they have to like her film; it’s not enough that she got in with SAG and GG based on name recognition and fanbase (same goes for Duvall for a widely seen but lukewarmly received film). Aniston doesn’t have the B.O. clout or industry respect Sandra Bullock had, nor the critical support, so I’ll believe it when I see it.
That leaves Amy Adams. She GOT the Golden Globe nomination and is probably the frontrunner in her category, outside of Emily Blunt. It’s a quirky character role — not just a straight indie drama or a pure victim role, defined by her circumstances — and different enough from other things she’s done. The kind of turn that vets like Meryl or Jessica Lange or Sissy Spacek would get nominated for in their sleep. People act like she needs the precursor support, but who cares? Maybe Aniston’s PR team just got Cake screeners out, while most people still haven’t seen Big Eyes.
Frankly, I’ll be surprised if Adams misses. It’ll take a shockingly stunning performance from Aniston for me to change my mind.
The big mystery about actress …. how is ScarJo not cleaning the floor with Felicity Jones? A big star having a huge year. And I liked Felicity Jones before TTOE, but that film and that role both blow.
@Jake – I like visiting this site as well and eat up a lot of the content. The feminist spin is something I really appreciate. American film isn’t as good as it can be due in large part to the lack of interesting roles for women. When there is a healthy balance of MONEY-MAKING pictures that include male and female protagonists, then I think the film industry is more robust, with “classics” to choose from. From the start of cinema when women like Mary Pickford, Lilian Gish, Marion Davies and Greta Garbo lit up the box office in silent era, and then afterward, when Bette Davis, Shirley Temple, Joan Crawford, Ingrid Bergman, Katherine Hepburn, Betty Grable, Doris Day and Elizabeth Taylor ruled the roost and infused the industry with dollars, Hollywood had a decent balance of the sexes (on screen). During those days, there was a bevy of fantastic, all-time best films to choose from. I believe a lot of it has to do with the fact that the Battle of the Sexes had great representatives on both sides.
So if Sasha wants to politely bring it up in her articles, I say good for her, even if she does repeat herself. Hopefully she makes for the lack of feminism on nearly every other male-dominated site.
And really, many of those other sites are antifeminist even if they do not overtly say so. Their top ten lists are devoid of films with actresses NOT playing the ass-kicking babe. Their year end lists are stocked with the latest, gritty melodramas starring some method actor or reformed comedian and plenty of blood squibs. That is your other option and the Internet is loaded with those other sites, many of which are considered reputable (Slate, EW, Empire).
Unlikely hood – interesting link, but I’m not getting the “cancel each other out” theory.
The roles are only similar in that both characters are British and both characters are smart. Surely Academy voters are capable of differentiating on a deeper level that just that.
Yeah, Antoinette – the comment was priceless. and I can see it happening, too.
I think that if Moore had won in the past and wasn’t outrageously overdue, then Pike would be pretty much locked in for the win at this point. The movie is popular, her co-lead is a hot male movie star, she is a pretty young actress who gave a breakout performance – this sounds very much like Jennifer Lawrence’s win for Silver Linings Playbook.
@Steve Schweighofer
Charlize Theron.
“Nobody thinks twice about Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher being negative portrayals of men. But when it comes to women? They have to be put in that cage continually.”
While I agree that it’s an ongoing problem, I would like to point out Cate Blanchett’s recent Oscar win for Blue Jasmine as a portrait of one of the single-most unsympathetic female characters in recent memory, which is not a knock against the role or the performance, as it was designed to be as such. With that and Gone Girl, we’re at least making strides to have more dynamic female roles and giving them due recognition.
You should be screaming like hell that Hollywood has stopped making films about half the human race. We’re here not just for the films that were made but the ones they increasingly fail to make.
I’m grateful to Sasha for speaking out. It’s a sacrifice on her part, but one she is honorable enough to make. It’s noxious when people characterize principled stands as special pleading. So don’t.
Sasha, I have never loved you more than you do right now. I hope Gone Girl gets in the race just for you!! I personally didn’t like it, but, hey, I’m giving up being negative!!
Funny how the male actors seem fairly clear and just about locked, with the winners (I’ll bet the house on it) likely to be Redmayne and Simmons.
But for the women, not so much. It’s almost as though we’re clear on what defines a great male performance, but get all tangled-up when it comes to determining what make an actress performance “great”.
The problem is not a shortage of good performances, but agreeing on one that we want to represent the gender. That’s not the case with the men – there’s no fear in rewarding a guy for accurately portraying an asshole, a killer or a psychopath. Likeability doesn’t enter the picture, just look at past winners.
It seems to be an entirely different standard for women. There were some brilliant performance this year and we haven’t seen them all yet. Until we reach a point where gender equality reaches in and clarifies what we want from our female actors, it will always be a “weak” and confusing year for actresses.
But when feminism becomes a barometer to measure how good or bad the movies are or were, it’s just laughably stupid.
If you don’t care whether or not any movies ever feature interesting women, then I’m going to guess you’re not a woman. [ I’m sure there are women who go to movies that don’t feature strong women (there’s probably proof of that fact – EVERYWHERE). ]
But if you’re a man or a woman who thinks it’s laughable for any women — or ANY PERSON — to care about ever seeing fascinating women depicted onscreen, then you’re a laughable excuse for a human being with no sense of empathy and no concern for anyone whose hopes or desires differ from your own.
And furthermore, if you think it’s only ‘feminists’ who ever give a shit about seeing women in movies then it’s too bad you never got to talk to Billy Wilder or Ingmar Bergman or any one of thousands of legendary writers and directors who understood the immeasurable value of women in movies.
Lastly, anyone who thinks Sasha believes “feminism is a barometer to measure the value of a movie” is either blind or being willfully stupid because what about The Hurt Locker, Jaws, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Wolf of Wall St, Citizen Kane, etc etc etc to infinity.
How stupid and insensitive does a person have to be not to see that Sasha doesn’t HATE movies featuring men. She simply wishes and hopes more movies would feature women too. But that wish is laughable?
Laugh it up at that laughable wish. Laugh your crude silly insensitive ass off.
Do I now need to apologize for saying these boring attitudes are typical of selfish, stupid, insensitive people? ok, I’ll apologize as soon as those people who say selfish, stupid, insensitive things see how laughably stupid they sound and apologize to those of us whose very reasonable hopes you call “laughably stupid.”
yeah, that’s right, I said your comment is “laughably stupid.” How does it fucking feel?
Jake,
You’re not alone, count me in too. It’s been quite some time since Awards Daily became Feminism Daily… with which i can live. But when feminism becomes a barometer to measure how good or bad the movies are or were, it’s just laughably stupid.
I would love to see Gugu Mbatha-Raw take Aniston’s place in the best actress category.
Dargis makes some very good points re Gone Girl. The fact that a woman wrote it has made many think that it’s just a funny-sad commentary on marriage, media, and 21st-century pop culture, all of which, regardless of how dark Flynn’s vision, isn’t all that offensive to men or women. But, as Dargis points out, if one looks closer, it’s also about as anti-woman as it gets. Her article is well worth reading.
Best Actress 5th spot no guts no glory shocker QUVENZHANE WALLIS for ANNIE.
“Funny that I read here one of these days that Cotillard didn’t deserve to be nominated for The Immigrant because her role was not of an empowered woman…”
I agree, that’s bullshit. Cotillard can win an Oscar for that movie alone.
Ok, I have to say it.
Sasha… Enough is enough.
I’ve come here over the last few months or so each day to read the latest- I usually hit Awards Daily, Kris over at Hitfix and Nat at The Film Experience. I love the race. I mean LOVE it. I get excited for the daily critics’ announcement and the reactions from the best pundits, of which I include you.
My roster of Oscar sites used to include Goldderby as well, but I got to a point where I grew so tired of Tom O’Neil’s constant lowbrow comments concerning talented people doing great work, I stopped visiting his web site (the final straw was a post about Naomi Watts’ nipples in 21 Grams, I kid you not).
Well, now I’m considering cutting the roster again. The last 4 State of the Race articles have included some well formed opinions on the films in the race. However, without fail, there comes a time where you fly off the rails on your feminist agenda. Honestly, I’m with you. More good roles for women! Huzzah!!! Gone Girl is awesome!!! Especially Pike!!! I agree with you!!!
But when you belabor the point to the extent that you have, whether I agree or not, even going so far as to make the word “cock” the centerpiece of a widely read article, it loses ALL coherence and just becomes annoying.
I know I’m one reader and don’t make much of a dent in your page views, but I am your target, a movie and Oscar-obsessed person who loves this stuff so much that I listened to 7 or 8 of your Oscar Podcasts that delved into past years while on a 12 hour road trip, and you are losing me.
Relax on the feminism stuff. Focus on the race. You’ve done this well before. You’ve made your point… A lot. You’ll make it again- and I’ll support you. But it doesn’t have to be in EVERY thing you write- I promise.
I could also do a top 20 Lead Actresses, by the way:
1. Essie Davis – The Babadook
2. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
3. Marion Cotillard – The Immigrant
4. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
5. Julianne Moore – Maps To The Stars
6. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
7. Anne Dorval – Mommy
8. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
9. Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby
10. Jenny Slate – Obvious Child
11. Hilary Swank – The Homesman
12. Shailene Woodley – The Fault In Our Stars
13. Felicity Jones – The Theory Of Everything
14. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Beyond The Lights
15. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – Belle
16. Kristen Wiig – The Skeleton Twins
17. Tessa Thompson – Dear White People
18. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
19. Scarlett Johansson – Under The Skin
20. Agata Trzebuchowska – Ida
21. Tilda Swinton – Only Lovers Left Alive
22. Rose Byrne – Neighbors
23. Angelina Jolie – Maleficent
I included a few extras so there are actually 20 actresses listed (even though I think people SHOULD be allowed to be nominated multiple times in the same category if their work is truly superior)
Ok, I have to say it.
Sasha… Enough is enough.
I’ve come here over the last few months or so each day to read the latest- I usually hit Awards Daily, Kris over at Hitfix and Nat at The Film Experience. I love the race. I mean LOVE it. I get excited for the daily critics’ announcement and the reactions from the best pundits, of which I include you.
My roster of Oscar sites used to include Goldderby as well, but I got to a point where I grew so tired of Tom O’