It’s funny how last year there were three movies: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle. This year, there have been three movies since Telluride: Boyhood, Birdman and The Imitation Game, or as we like to affectionately call them: The Imitation Boyman. This weekend puts all three to the test to see which one has the edge. Anyone who is predicting any of them will have to see that film win at the Producers Guild awards on Saturday. The next night will be the SAG ensemble. If Boyhood wins both, we’re looking at a Slumdog Millionaire Year. If Imitation Game wins both, or either, it’s a King’s Speech year where the leader of the race started at the Producers Guild and marched onward to Oscar.
The preferential ballot and Oscar changing their date to a small voting window (for god knows what reason – voters never have time to see the movies) has made it nearly impossible for there to be any variation in these weeks leading up to the Oscars. There just isn’t time to shift a growing consensus – it’s really the new normal. If Oscar changes back to five Best Picture contenders you can see more surprises and more last minute shifts but whatever wins the PGA wins Best Picture since the expansion:
2009 – The Hurt Locker wins PGA and Oscar, Basterds wins SAG
2010 – The King’s Speech wins PGA, SAG, Oscar
2011 – The Artist wins PGA, Oscar, The Help wins the SAG
2012 – Argo wins PGA, SAG, Oscar
2013 – 12 Years and Gravity win PGA, Hustle wins SAG, 12 Years wins Oscar
SAG isn’t as important and hasn’t been the deciding factor in a Best Picture winner against the PGA since 2006, with Crash. In 2005, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA and SAG but Martin Scorsese won the DGA and The Departed won the Oscar. Back then, they were working with a weighted, not a preferential ballot. Now that the preferential is in place, ain’t nothing gonna change from PGA to Oscar, or it hasn’t yet.
Thus, whatever wins on Saturday is likely your Best Picture winner. The only film I feel there’s buzz for is Boyhood. I’m not privy to the works of Harvey Weinstein behind the scenes like some of my colleagues are. Unless someone knows something I don’t, this is Boyhood’s to win in a runaway sweep.
Michael Musto posted an interview with an Academy voter where she said she thought Birdman might win but brought up the apparent rumor that Inarritu is not fun to work with. But she also said it was the most exciting film in the race. Any momentum it might gain, however, is going to be taken out by The Imitation Game, leaving the frontrunner to collect the prize.
What do you think, Oscar watchers?
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
We’ll see about Nolan in 2016! 🙂 (For some reason, he seems to be releasing one movie pretty much every two years, only in even-numbered years, with the exception of Batman Begins – which I’m sure is something all of his other fans are aware of by now. I, for one, have just noticed this peculiarity…)
I had thought about Interstellar, but I’m afraid it might be too polarizing. I’m not sure if people will be able to get past the science of it. I hope they can, because I really liked it.
I honestly believe Gone Girl and Interstellar are films that will endure the most from this past year, especially as Fincher and Nolan’s legacies continue to grow 🙂
Yeah, other than Gone Girl, I think maybe Nightcrawler is the one that people when they look back at the Best Picture field this year, they’ll think should have been nominated. I really liked Foxcatcher, but I liked Nightcrawler more.
Oh, and Best Picture, of course. 🙂 It should also have been nominated for Best Picture…
“You can’t be an Academy member, Claudiu. You like too many movies to be an Academy member.”
Yeah, I probably see too many movies a year to be an Academy member. 🙂 OK, that’s probably an exaggeration… or… is it?!…
“Claudiu, I’ve seen all but Whiplash, of the movies I really wanted to see before I was able to make my own top 10 of the year.”
Oh, I have a lot still to see… But I’m going at an accelerated rate now. 🙂 This is the least busy time of the year for me, January-February. I just watched Nightcrawler, among other things – awesome! It’s now firmly planted in my top 5 (I’m still not 100% clear on the order – but Birdman’s still number 1). It’s pretty criminal that Gyllenhaal wasn’t nominated (Bradley Cooper… pfff… haven’t seen Foxcatcher yet, but I could probably live without Cumberbatch in that lineup as well, and I’d definitely never nominate him ahead of J.G.), but at least the screenplay got in, which I would say is the strongest thing about it. But it deserved a lot more nominations (like directing or editing, for example, apart from Gyllenhaal). Russo was OK, but I wouldn’t nominate her. There are better performances this year, for me (coming mostly from Birdman and Gone Girl, and I haven’t even seen two of the actual nominees in this category yet).
”Does Roger Friedman have his own agenda? No doubt.”
Years ago, a former NBR voter told me that Friedman got ticked off at the National Board of Review because they turned him down to attend some NBR event or something. I’m not defending the NBR, but Friedman’s animus toward them seems to border on obsessive. And he’s had his own woes: Fox News once fired this showbiz columnist after downloading a pirated copy of ”Wolverine” and angering 20th Century Fox studio execs.
That’s not to say the NBR might not be sketchy. But I have similar concerns about the Hollywood Film Awards and Santa Barbara Film Festival, which ”announce” prizes that seem to be picked by publicists or the studios. Invariably, they’re all likely Oscar contenders in need of more P.R.
“I can’t really do a top 10 yet” Claudiu, I’ve seen all but Whiplash, of the movies I really wanted to see before I was able to make my own top 10 of the year.
But, I decided I want to wait until I see all the movies at least 2 times. That way I can be sure how I feel about them, and that it wasn’t just momentary.
Of the movies I’ve seen more than once, my top 10 looks like this:
1. Gone Girl
2. Boyhood
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Fury
6. Edge of Tomorrow
7. The Monuments Men
8.
9.
10.
Claudiu — I really wouldn’t venture to guess the answer. 🙂 I was deliberately creating a scenario to CAUSE 3 different results (to clarify the differences between the methods). There’s no way to know. I think the preferential ballot is a compromise (cross-between) of the other 2 systems. So maybe that’s the fairest?
Robert A. – Ha! You got my joke.
Claudiu Dobre says:
hmm. I think we have an undercover Academy member in our midst.
oh, whew, never mind. You can’t be an Academy member, Claudiu. You like too many movies to be an Academy member.
🙂
“Harvey Weinstein: 1-Birdman; 2-Budapest; 3-Selma; 4-Sniper; 5-Boyhood.”
Ha! No way Harvey’s ballet doesn’t include The Imitation Game at #1!
I can’t really do a top 10 yet, as new stuff I see is still constantly cracking my top 10, and even my top 5…
Oh, I guess that’s under “The Essentials” – OK, fair enough!
Very nice example, Alan! The question (and I ask you only because you seem to have spent at least a little time considering different scenarios, which is already infinity times how much I’ve spent on it) is what percentage of the time would you estimate (or guess) one gets 3 different winners with the 3 different systems – or maybe just 2, preferential vs. old system, what was it, plurality or weighted? I’m too lazy to check higher up in the thread. 😀 But I’m very curious what the answer to that might be, and I think it’d be very interesting to know, because it would tell us how much the preferential ballot is likely to have changed the Best Picture outcomes these past few years, and (roughly) how many different winners (from what we got) we could have expected, had the old system still been in use, in the same interval, for example…
“redacted for negativity and excessive subjectivity”
You can say that again!… So, we don’t get to see your actual top 10 list? 🙂 Just this extreme version?
Plurality, preferential and weighted ballots calculation. Great explanations by everyone. I will try to demonstrate how we can have the exact same seven ballots, but they will yield different results, depending on how ballots are calculated. Let’s say we have seven AMPAS members voted as follows (for simplicity sake, I’ve only included 5 nominated pictures).
Meryl Streep: 1-Boyhood; 2-Selma; 3-Sniper; 4-Birdman; 5-Budapest
Tom Hooper: 1-Boyhood; 2-Selma; 3-Sniper; 4-Birdman; 5-Budapest
John Williams: 1-Budapest; 2-Selma; 3-Sniper; 4-Birdman; 5-Boyhood
Robert DeNiro: 1-Boyhood; 2-Selma; 3-Sniper; 4-Birdman; 5-Budapest
Thelma Schoonmaker: 1-Budapest; 2-Selma; 3-Sniper; 4-Birdman; 5-Boyhood
Harvey Weinstein: 1-Birdman; 2-Budapest; 3-Selma; 4-Sniper; 5-Boyhood
Ann Roth: 1-Selma; 2-Budapest; 3-Sniper; 4-Birdman; 5-Boyhood
Plurality – Boyhood wins with 3 #1 votes (Budapest #2 with 2 votes)
Preferential – Budapest wins with 4 votes (after the second round)
Weighted – Selma wins with a total points of 28 (Budapest #2 with 21 points)
Hope that clears things up (or confuses) even more. 🙂
…and my ‘Awards Choices’ (ranked in order of preference, winners in bold)
Best Director
1. Richard Linklater – BOYHOOD
2. Andrey Zvyavintzev – LEVIATHAN
3. Paul Thomas Anderson – INHERENT VICE
4. Pawel Pawlikowski – IDA
5. Ava DuVernay – SELMA
Best Actor
1. Ralph Phienes – THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
2. Grigory Fesenko – THE TRIBE
3. David Oyelowo – SELMA
4. Aleksey Serebryakov – LEVIATHAN
5. Gaspard Ulliel – SAINT LAURENT
Honorable Mention: 6. Jake Gyllenhaal – NIGHTCRAWLER, 7. Viggo Mortensen – JAUJA, 8. Joaquin Phoenix – INHERENT VICE, 9. Jack O’Connell – STARRED UP, 10. Miles Teller – WHIPLASH
Best Actress
1. Scarlet Johanson – UNDER THE SKIN
2. Agata Trzebuchowska – IDA
3. Rosamund Pike – GONE GIRL
4. Marion Cotillard – TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT
5. Gugu Mbatha-Raw – BEYOND THE LIGHTS
Honorable Mention: 6. Karidja Toure – GIRLHOOD, 7. Lisa Loven Kongsli – FORCE MAJEURE, 8. Anne Dorval – MOMMY, 9. Hillary Swank – THE HOMESMAN, 10. Tilda Swinton – ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Ben Mendelsohn – STARRED UP
2. Ethan Hawke – BOYHOOD
3. Jeremie Renier – SAINT LAURENT
4. J.K. Simmons – WHIPLASH
5. Josh Brolin – INHERENT VICE
Honorable Mention: 6. Tommy Lee Jones – THE HOMESMAN, 7. Stellan Skarsgard – NYMPHOMANIAC, 8. Kristofer Hivju – FORCE MAJEURE, 9. Oscar Martinez – WILD TALES, 10. Tom Wilkinson – SELMA
Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette – BOYHOOD
2. Julianne Moore – MAPS TO THE STARS
3. Agata Kulesza – IDA
4. Anne Hathaway – INTERSTELLAR
5. Liv Lemoyne – WE ARE THE BEST!
Honorable Mention: 6. Rene Russo – NIGHTCRAWLER, 7. Tilda Swinton – SNOWPIERCER, 8. Carrie Coon – GONE GIRL, 9. Uma Thurman – NYMPHOMANIAC, 10. Katherine Waterson – INHERENT VICE
Best Film Editing
1. Sandra Adair – BOYHOOD
2. Barney Pilling – THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
3. Valentyn Vasyanovych – THE TRIBE
4. Leslie Jones – INHERENT VICE
5. Anna Mass – LEVIATHAN
Best Original Screenplay
1. Andrey Zvyagintsev, Oleg Negin – LEVIATHAN
2. Wes Anderson, Hugo Guiness – THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
3. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Paweł Pawlikowski – IDA
4. Richard Linklater – BOYHOOD
5. Ava DuVernay, Paul Webb – SELMA
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Paul Thomas Anderson – INHERENT VICE
2. Walter Campbell, Jonathan Glazer – UNDER THE SKIN
3. Gillian Flynn – GONE GIRL
4. Bong Joon-ho – SNOWPIERCER
5. Lukas Moodysson – WE ARE THE BEST!
Best Cinematography
1. Robert Elswit – INHERENT VICE
2. Mikhail Krichman – LEVIATHAN
3. Valentyn Vasyanovych – THE TRIBE
4. Bradford Young – SELMA
5. Daniel Landin – UNDER THE SKIN
Honorable Mention: 6. Timo Salminen – JAUJA, 7. Jeff Cronenweth – GONE GIRL, 8. Seamus McGarvey – GODZILLA, 9. Ryszard Lenczewski, Lukasz Zal – IDA, 10. Roman Vasynov – FURY
Best Score
1. Mica Levi – UNDER THE SKIN
2. Alexandre Desplat – THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
3. Philip Glass – LEVIATHAN
4. Joe Hisaishi – THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA
5. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross – GONE GIRL
Honorable Mention: Steve Moore – THE GUEST, Hans Zimmer – INTERSTELLAR, James Newton Howard – NIGHTCRAWLER, Jonny Greenwood – INHERENT VICE, Dev Hynes – PALO ALTO; Danny Bensi, Saunder Jurriaans – ENEMY; Jozef Van Wissem, SQÜRL – ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE
Best Use of Music/”Soundtracks”:
1. EDEN
2. INHERENT VICE
3. MOMMY
4. WE ARE THE BEST!
5. ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE
Honorable Mentions: THE GUEST, THE ROVER, BEYOND THE LIGHTS, FRANK, BOYHOOD
Best Animated Feature
1. Isao Takahata – THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA
2. Dean Deblois – HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2
3. Tomm Moore – SONG OF THE SEA
4. Graham Annabelle, Anthony Stacchi – THE BOXTROLLS
5. Jacques-Remy Girerd, Benoit Chieux – AUNT HILDA!
Best Documentary Feature
1. Claude Lanzmann – THE LAST OF THE UNJUST
2. Jesse Moss – THE OVERNIGHTERS
3. Nuria Ibañez – THE NAKED ROOM
4. Win Wenders – THE SALT OF THE EARTH
5. Errol Morris – THE UNKNOWN KNOWN
Honorable Mention: 6. Robert Greene – ACTRESS, 7. Tracy Droz Tragos, Andrew Droz Palermo – RICH HILL, 8. Orlando von Einsiedel’s – VIRUNGA, 9. Brian Knappenberger – THE INTERNET’S OWN BOY, 10. Morgan Spurlock – ONE DIRECTION: THIS IS US
Best Production Design
1. THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
2. INTERSTELLAR
3. INHERENT VICE
4. SNOWPIERCER
5. IDA
Best Costume Design
1. SAINT LAURENT
2. INHERENT VICE
3. THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
4. SELMA
5. MOMMY
Best Visual Effects
1. GODZILLA
2. UNDER THE SKIN
3. THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
4. INTERSTELLAR
5. SNOWPIERCER
Best Sound Mixing: WHIPLASH, FURY, INHERENT VICE, THE ROVER, INTERSTELLAR
Best Sound Editing: FURY, INTERSTELLAR, GODZILLA, JOHN WICK, THE GUEST
Best Makeup & Hair: ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL, MAPS TO THE STARS, UNDER THE SKIN, FURY
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Ruben Ostlund – Sweden – FORCE MAJEURE
2. Bertrand Bonello – France – SAINT LAURENT
3. Celine Sciamma – France – GIRLHOOD
4. Tsai Ming-Liang – Taiwan – STRAY DOGS
5. Lisandro Alonso – Argentina – JAUJA
Fellow cineastes and awards watchers, forgive the long post ahead and all the CAPS — just me being consistent with my usual notation. I’m fancying this “Best Picture Poll” thread as appropriate to drop the official story and since it appears almost everyone already’s had their say I can hijack it without blushing too much.
Wow, guys. I’ve done it again and achieved maximum objectivity, perhaps even attained the elusive truth. This season I haven’t been as much a presence here at Awards Daily as I would have anticipated a month ago…but let’s not languish in lamentation. I want to reiterate my appreciation of Sasha, Ryan and a great many of the regulars in the comments sections. These twelve months were a tough bunch to crack down — positively one of the three, perhaps two, stronger years of this decade. On the other hand, we received a rather uneven Best Picture line-up from The Academy.
A remarkably robust year for non-fiction, meanwhile, a devastatingly anemic one for animation. But even in scarcity you can find enough gems to summon a worthy line-up of five ‘nominees’. Maybe at some point during the mostly uneventful phase after Oscar night and before the Cannes announcements we can do a mid-decade retrospective/poll and encourage people to come up with their own “best films of the last five years” and in doing so manifest our love for the medium and its artists!
2014
The Essentials
1. BOYHOOD, Richard Linklater
2. LEVIATHAN, Andrey Zvyavintzev
3. INHERENT VICE, Paul Thomas Anderson
4. IDA, Pawel Pawlikowski
5. SELMA, Ava DuVernay
6. THE TRIBE, Miroslav Slaboshpitsky
7. THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL, Wes Anderson
8. EDEN, Mia Hansen-Love
9. WILD TALES, Damian Szifron
10. UNDER THE SKIN, Jonathan Glazer
11. FORCE MAJEURE, Ruben Ostlund
12. GODZILLA, Gareth Edwards
13. MAPS TO THE STARS, David Cronenberg
14. SAINT LAURENT, Bertrand Bonello
15. GONE GIRL, David Fincher
16. THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA, Isao Takahata
17. GIRLHOOD, Celine Sciamma
18. STARRED-UP, David McKenzie
19. WHIPLASH, Damien Chazelle
20. STRAY DOGS, Tsai Ming-Liang
21. JAUJA, Lisandro Alosonso
22. MR. TURNER, Mike Leigh
23. FURY, David Ayer
24. WE ARE THE BEST!, Lukas Moodysson
25. IT FELT LIKE LOVE, Eliza Hittman
26. SNOWPIERCER, Bong Joon-ho
27. THE MAZE RUNNER, Wes Ball
28. TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT, Jean Pierre & Luc Dardenne
29. FREE FALL, Stephan Lacant
30. INTERSTELLAR, Christopher Nolan
31. BEYOND THE LIGHTS, Gina Prince-Bythewood
32. NIGHTCRAWLER, Dan Gilroy
33. ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE, Jim Jarmusch
34. THE RIOT CLUB, Lone Scherfig
35. NIGHT MOVES, Kelly Reichardt
36. NYMPHOMANIAC, Lars von Trier
37. THE HOMESMAN, Tommy Lee Jones
38. LOVE IS STRANGE, Ira Sachs
39. X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST, Bryan Singer
40. JOHN WICK, Chad Stahelski
41. MOMMY, Xavier Dolan
42. THE DROP, Michael R. Roskam
43. ENEMY, Denis Villeneuve
44. NOAH, Darren Aronofsky
45. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2, Dean Deblois
46. LOCKE, Steven Knight
47. A MOST WANTED MAN, Anton Corbijn
48. NEIGHBORS, Nicholas Stoller
49. HIDE YOUR SMILING FACES, Daniel Patrick Carbone
50. ’71, Yann Demange
51. THE GUEST, Adam Wingard
52. DEAR WHITE PEOPLE, Justin Simien
53. PALO ALTO, Gia Coppola
54. EASTERN BOYS, Robin Campillo
55. THE IMMIGRANT, James Gray
56. JOE, David Gordon Green
57. EDGE OF TOMORROW, Doug Liman
58. THE DANCE OF REALITY, Alejandro Jodorowsky
59. CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER, Anthony & Joe Russo
60. A MOST VIOLENT YEAR, J.C. Chandor
61. THE BABADOOK, Jennifer Kent
62. WHY DON’T YOU PLAY IN HELL?, Siono Son
63. THE ROVER, David Michod
64. THE DOUBLE, Richard Ayodae
Overlooked Gems and Honorable Mentions: STILL ALICE, HELLION, GRAND PIANO, BLUE RUIN, BAD WORDS, OCULUS, COLD IN JULY, FERIADO, THE SACRAMENT, ROSEWATER, EXODUS: GODS & KINGS, CALVARY, JAMIE MARKS IS DEAD, MUPPETS MOST WANTED, HORNS, BIRDMAN, THE SIGNAL, THE LEGO MOVIE, WHAT IF, LOW DOWN, FRANK, CHILD’S POSE, SABOTAGE, SPACE STATION 76, THE GOOD LIE, LILTING, WILLOW CREEK, PRIDE, TRACKS, THE DISAPPEARANCE OF ELEANOR RIGNY: HIM AND HER, DOS DISPAROS, THE BOXTROLLS, X+Y, THE PRINCESS OF FRANCE, LUCY, THE SKELETON TWINS, FOXCATCHER, YOUNG ONES, GOD HELP THE GIRL, MALEFICENT, THE ONE I LOVE, THE TWO FACES OF JANUARY, DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES, COHERENCE, CHEAP THRILLS, LE WEEK-END, 22 JUMP STREET, THE RETRIEVAL, CHEAP THRILLS.
Personal Disappointments: THE RAID 2, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY, THE IMITATION GAME, THE BETTER ANGELS, WINTER SLEEP, THE GAMBLER, THE HUNGER GAMES – MOCKINGJAY PART I, KILL THE MESSENGER.
Not Nearly As Bad As You’ve Heard: POMPEII, 300: RISE OF AN EMPIRE, VAMPIRE ACADEMY, THE RAILWAY MAN, THEY CAME TOGETHER, SIN CITY: A DAME TO KILL FOR, ADDCITED, DRAFT DAY, TAMMY, THE GIVER.
Most Disreputable Guilty Pleasure: ENDLESS LOVE.
Major Blind Spots: WILD, TIMBUKTU, LABOR DAY, PHOENIX, BELLE, THE MONUMENTS MEN, CHEF, ST. VINCENT, BEGIN AGAIN, WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE, PADDINGTON, TOP FIVE, MAGIC IN THE MOONLIGHT, TALES OF THE GRIM SLEEPER
Top 10 Non-2014 Best First-Time Viewings
1. BERLIN ALEXANDERPLATZ, Rainer Werner Fassbinder (’80)
2. SANDRA, Luchino Visconti, (’65)
3. THE COLOR OF POMEGRANATES, Sergei Parajanov (’68)
4. FLOWERS FROM SHANGAI, Hou Hsiao-Hsien (’98)
5. PERFORMANCE, Donald Cammell, Nicolas Roeg (’70)
6. THE CROWD, King Vidor (’28)
7. MIKEY AND NICKY, Elaine May (’76)
8. LOURDES, Jessica Hausner (’10)
9. JOURNEY TO ITALY Roberto Rossellini (’54)
10. MY FATHER’S GLORY and MY FATHER’S CASTLE, Yves Robert (’90)
Top 10 [redacted for negativity and excessive subjectivity] of the Year [suggested edit: “movies that made me the most unhappy”?]
1. GOODBYE TO LANGUAGE, Jean-Luc Godard
2. THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2, Marc Webb
3. JELOUSY, Philippe Garrel
4. OBVIOUS CHILD, Gillian Robespierre
5. LET’S BE COPS, Luke Greenfield
6. I, ORIGINS, Mike Cahill
7. TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION, Michael Bay
8. WISH I WAS HERE, Zach Braff
9. YOUNG & BEAUTIFUL, Francois Ozon
10. BURNING BLUE, D.M.W. Greer
**Made My Designations in 2013: GLORIA, THE CONGRESS; LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON; THE WIND RISES, ERNEST & CELESTINE, JODOROWKY’S DUNE, NORTE THE END OF HISTORY.
“Would you agree that with plurality you can go for a last minute surge in votes, a Crash-like scenario, that can’t really be achieved with preferential?”
Yes. If there were only 100 voters in 2005, Crash could have theoretically won with only 21 votes total if support was split among the other 4 nominees. A surge is much harder to pull off if you need 50% + 1 support to win. Practically everyone who votes last minute needs to give their #1s to that late breaker.
But both AMPAS and NBR should clean their houses.
keifer, I fear there’s only one way that can happen.
Sasha has been saying for years: It’s not that hard to distill the year’s best films down to 20 top titles that most people can agree on. It’s when that list of 20 titles gets carved down to 10 that a lot of feelings get hurt and our personal sensibilities get offended.
(And seriously, even if I can find 35 films a year worth spending $8 to see, Hollywood has never ever made more than 15 or 20 truly GREAT movies in any given year).
So then there are some fringe movies that percolate upwards into the top 10 from their spots in the Top 25-50 range that strike a chord for all kinds of reasons. I’m usually ok with that. Some of those movies are awful but many of them have their undeniable charms.
So really, even though the NBR membership and leadership might be diluted by dozens of unqualifed members — that’s no different that the US Congress or TV news personalities or any group of people given power and ‘authority’ to ‘make choices for us.’ And still, somehow, the world keeps spinning and good things DO rise to the top like sweet cream.
Because, with film awards, there are some movies that are SIMPLY TOO GOOD to MISS. It would take a real dummkoff not to see the brilliance of The Departed or No Country for Old Men. A voter doesn’t have to be a film scholar genius to see that sort of greatnness (lucky for the NBR and lucky for the Oscars too!)
It took me years to see past the Wizard-of-Oz Man-Behind-the-Curtain aspect of the awards race. Roger Friedman has been writing about Annie Schulhof for over a decade, but I only picked up on it about 2 years ago. (I’m not wild about Roger Friedman, because he’s on the FOX payroll, but he’s like a dog with an old rag in his exposé of the NBR so it’s fun to watch him gnaw on on Schulhof’s foot).
Friedman himself can be strangely wrongheaded (hey, we all can be wrongheaded sometimes! just look at me!) , like back in 2006, he was all pissy about Dreamgirls getting snubbed by the NBR so he was sneering about Letters From Iwo Jima — so… wow, dude, please choose your battles more wisely, because Letters from Iwo Jima is a flat-out masterpiece.
But if you can ignore Friedman’s weird attitude about Iwo Jima vs Dreamgirls, this 2006 article he wrote is good example of the kind of thing he’s been revealing every year about the NBR for the past 10 years.
So, try to overlook Friedman’s own obvious bias, because his gripes in that regard don’t mean much (after all, he’s just a guy with an opinion, just like the rest of us)…
….but this lengthy piece detailing the internal corruption at the NBR is some juicy stuff.
tidbit:
Does Roger Friedman have his own agenda? No doubt. So keep that in mind, and consider his reporting as just one facet of a complicated story. It’s interesting to ponder one of his major conclusions:
“the movie studios hate it but keep it going so they have an award to tout in newspaper ads.”
In that sentence, “it” means the NBR, — but “it” could also represent the entire awards race from October to February.
I’m not terribly bothered by that. In fact, having a pragmatic clear-eyed attitude helps me cope with it.
I think it’s pretty clear those are meant to be different terms. But as far as I know, only the VFX nominees are determined using a weighted ballot. All of the winners are chosen by plurality except BP.
Would you agree that with plurality you can go for a last minute surge in votes, a Crash-like scenario, that can’t really be achieved with preferential?
“I think the weighted and reweighted corresponds to the surplus rule.”
Reweighted range more or less is the surplus rule, yes. But weighted isn’t.
Ryan,
HOLY SHIT! I had no idea about all his crap within NBR association.
You are, of course, totally correct. Thanks for enlightening me, and I do agree with you wholeheartedly.
My comment was merely about their choices this year, which I thought were pretty good.
But both AMPAS and NBR should clean their houses.
“We’re not talking about about letting Chris Kyle execute all 6000 voters. Just, like, 200 or 300 of them.” I’ll pull the trigger, Ryan.
I think the weighted and reweighted corresponds to the surplus rule.
“Either this is interpreted as “preferential” and “weighted average” and “reweighted average” are interchangeable terms of the same system or these are three systems used for different categories.”
I think it’s pretty clear those are meant to be different terms. But as far as I know, only the VFX nominees are determined using a weighted ballot. All of the winners are chosen by plurality except BP.
keifer, I want the NBR to be led by Manhattan academics, renowned cinema scholars and film professors as they once were.
Here’s a thumbnail profile of the current reigning head of the NBR — She’s been running it like her private fiefdom for the past several years. She’s out of control. Something needs to be done.
This was written by a former NBR creative director. He resigned in protest of her shenanigans:
If that is the definition of weighted can someone point out when, if ever, and in which categories the Academy has ever used weighted? My understanding is that when there were 5 nominees all voters chose 1 and only 1 of the films for the win, and this was a plurality system, which all of the other categories still use. When they expanded to more than 5 voters ranked the nominees and the preferential/re-distribution system is used.
In the current Oscar rulebook that Albert quoted earlier it says “preferential, weighted average, or reweighted range voting system” when discussing the nomination process. Either this is interpreted as “preferential” and “weighted average” and “reweighted average” are interchangeable terms of the same system or these are three systems used for different categories. Does anyone know if other categories use the weighted average that others have defined here?
Also thanks for that breakdown Rob! It’s hard to believe that the voting method really changes the results in a major way–I wish the actual data from AMPAS became public information at some point. Waah.
keifer, I didn’t say that every nominee the NBR chooses is embarrassing. (wall-to-wall embarrassment? no. yikes, that would be hard to do)
I’m saying the head of the NBR for the past several years is fixated on celebrity butt-kissing and she has allowed unqualified members to be voting members (her socialite cabal) — those two things have gradually tarnished the NBRs previously stellar reputation.
That’s how they end up with embarrassing things like The Bucket List as one of their 10 Best Movies of the Year
When 10% to 15% of the membership of any group shouldn’t be voting, there are still 85% of the voters who make honorable choices — and even the middle-brow 25% still stumble into decent enough picks.
But when The Blind Side and The Bucket List start showing up in a group’s Top 10 of the year, you can be absolutely certain that there is deadwood lowbrow voting coming from 1/8th or 1/10th of the total voters who shouldn’t even be getting ballots.
Isn’t that the whole point of these recent discussions about how to improve the results of the Oscars and raise their standards?
We’re not talking about about letting Chris Kyle execute all 6000 voters. Just, like, 200 or 300 of them.
Defend the NBR if you want, of course, but you should google Annie Schulhof to find out what’s made their reputation go downhill the past several years.
Tell me how on earth a person like Annie Schulhof is in charge of choosing the best movies of the year? What is her qualification besides being a millionaire and her NYC society connections?
She needs to be gone. She needs to be fired and replaced. And so do a few hundred Oscar voters.
That’s all it takes to fix the Oscars: get rid of the deadwood who never should have invited to be Academy members in the first place.
Why the fuck does an old no-talent unemployable harpy like Hope Holiday get to scold Martin Scorsese and why does her ballot count as much as Marty’s does? (and in fact her ballot cancels Scorsese’s ballot out)
Ah I see – so yes I was confusing them. I thought “weighted” meant “most votes for one…”
“Plurality is highest number of votes wins. (With eight titles, there is a possibility that a film would win with only 11.2% of the vote.)”
Which is an argument for a preferential ballot – the Academy obviously feels that a BP winner having majority support is important.
Sasha,
Weighted that each placement carries a point value. The Gurus of Gold does this. (8 pts for #1, 7 for #2, etc)
Plurality is highest number of votes wins. (With eight titles, there is a possibility that a film would win with only 11.2% of the vote.)
http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/12/statsgasm-episode-4-best-picture-nomination-voting-simulation-pt-1/ – This also highlighted the differences between weighted and preferential balloting.
Ryan, NBR voted for these films/performances this year. These are deserving choices; not an embarrassment at all.
A Most Violent Year (Picture)
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Edward Norton – Birdman
Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
“I guess I don’t understand the difference between plurality and weighted.”
Plurality – each person has one vote, film with most votes wins.
Weighted (range) – each vote gets a different weight according to placement (e.g. a film ranked #1 gets 10 points, film ranked #2 gets 9 points, #3 8 points, etc) . Movie City News and Metacritic’s yearly Top 10 lists use weighted voting.
To illustrate the various voting methods, I will use the recent BP noms from the simulated ballot.
Plurality: Top 10 films with the most number #1’s
1) Boyhood (351 Votes)
2) Birdman (170)
3) Gone Girl (118)
4) Grand Budapest Hotel (88)
5) Whiplash (77)
6) Interstellar (55)
7) Under the Skin (42)
8) Selma (37)
9) The Imitation Game (25)
10) Into the Woods (23)
[Nightcrawler was #11 with 22 votes]
Weighted (5 pts for #1, 4 pts for #2, etc.):
1) Boyhood (3,105 Points)
2) Birdman (2,366)
3) Gone Girl (1878)
4) Grand Budapest Hotel (1747)
5) Whiplash (1045)
6) Selma (804)
7) The Imitation Game (729)
8) Nightcrawler (700)
9) Interstellar (654)
10) Under the Skin (462)
Purely Preferential Ballot (Eliminating titles with lowest count after each round):
1) Boyhood
2) Birdman
3) Gone Girl
4) Grand Budapest Hotel
5) Whiplash
6) Selma
7) The Imitation Game
8) Interstellar
9) Under the Skin
10) Nightcrawler
Current Academy Rules (Essentially one round of preferential and one round of surplus):
1) Boyhood
2) Birdman
3) Gone Girl
4) Grand Budapest Hotel
5) Whiplash
6) Selma
7) Interstellar
8) The Imitation Game
9) Under the Skin
If you notice, this last top 9 appear in all the methods. Nightcrawler and Into the Woods were the only difference towards the bottom. It is harder to game the system using the preferential ballot system for the nomination process. Weighted would be a lot easier to manipulate, especially for the final vote.
I guess I don’t understand the difference between plurality and weighted.
I’m probably the only person on here who has 4 Best Picture nominees in their top 5 of the year so far (bet you can’t guess what the 5th, non-BP nominee, is – I dare anyone, 3 tries, mad props to the winner/s)… I wasn’t anywhere near as crazy as most people about stuff like Interstellar (been discussed), Snowpiercer (good ideas, didn’t like the execution), The Babadook (OK but not THAT great) or Under the Skin (interesting but I don’t connect with it much), and I haven’t yet seen Inherent Vice, The Lego Movie or Nightcrawler (will be seeing all three very soon, possibly within a few days).
Imitation Game is also in that sweet spot of not being the nomination leader, but having enough support in categories across the board to take the top prize, like A Beautiful Mind, Million Dollar Baby, Crash, Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, etc. The King’s Speech oddly enough has been one of the few in the last decade to amass the most nominations and prevail for Best Picture…
“Except this year, it’s already kind of pointless at this point. And last year, it wasn’t settled post-PGA when 12 Years and Gravity tied there (man! that was so much fun!)
We might want to drum up drama by calling this year “The Imitation Boyman”, but to me, the 8 picture race is more like “Boyhood and the Seven Dwarfs”.”
:)) Definitely!… And, yeah, I know, last year was the exception (and it WAS fun, and, at least for me, also very tense), but, as there’s almost never a tie, and the PGA has been matching 100% since the preferential ballot was introduced, that’s almost always when it’s decided. (Although I can’t imagine this rule won’t be broken at some point in the future, given the different voting bodies and the fact that Gravity almost broke it last year.)
The PGA Awards aren’t televised, right?
“I’ve learned one thing, never say, “It won’t happen.” Always leave a little bit of room for doubt.”
But never more than 1%. 🙂
Finally saw Imitation Game; for what it’s worth it’s better than The King’s Speech, but I’m not sure if I enjoyed it more than A Beautiful Mind…I suppose so since the code cracking was for real. Well made and well acted, deserving of all its nominations. Seems to be a crowd-pleaser too, but maybe too gay for Academy? I would think that would be the only reason it doesn’t win. It’s far below the gay level of Brokeback Mountain but it’s not exactly subtle either…
Benuity, I agree that Sasha (and others) misuses the term “weighted”.
But I don’t think “preferential” and “weighted” are the same. Weighted ballot is when (say there are 10 nominees) the #1 ranked movie will earn 10 points and #10 movie will have 1 point. They add up all the points each movie earn.
Preferential is the redistribution of the ballots that have the lowest #1 ranked movie, using their #2 (and so on) until we reach a candidate with more than 50% top votes.
“Albert, I think Sasha just misused the term “weighted” when what she meant is “plurality.” BP no longer uses plurality to determine the winner, but the rest of the fields still do because they have 5 nominees. BP uses preferential now, but used plurality when it was 5 nominees. Weighted and preferential are the same.”
But weighted and preferential are not the same, though. By definition, weighted voting gives voters/votes differing amounts of power. In preferential all voters have equal power.
I don’t think they, the film makers, care that much about awards, and in the case of Selma, I agree.
Ava DuVernay seems to me to be still very much in the indie sphere. Good for her. That’s where the real excitement and freedom are happening in American cinema.
Since the Oscars delivered to so many of us so much disappointment this year, Let’s not forget it’s the Spirit Awards who had the good sense to honor many of the movies the Oscar voters fumbled.
Selma got 5 Spirit Award nominations
Best Feature
Best Director, Ava DuVernay
Lead Actor, David Oyelowo
Supporting Actress, Carmen Ejogo
Cinematographer, Bradford Young
Nightcrawler got 6 Spirit noms
Best first feature
Best director, Dan Gilroy
Lead actor, Jake Gyllenhaal
Supporting actor, Riz Ahmed
Best screenplay
Best film editor, John Gilroy
I don’t want to hear anybody say, “but the Spirit Awards are nothing compared to the Oscars.”
Bullshit. When the Oscars categories are full of various specimen bottles of traditional shit and the Spirit categories are filled with progressive brilliance, then which one is the weak awards group that’s stuck on honoring POS establishment-approved turds?
Any Awards group is only as prestigious as its behavior and choices. The National Board of Review has made itself a laughingstock with some of its decisions in recent years; the NBR leadership is ruining the NBR.
Unless the Board of Governors realize they need to inject new blood and hundreds of new members to balance out the nursing home mentality in the Academy, then those moribund, crass and self-serving factions of Academy leadership threaten to ruin the Oscars in the same way.
Sure, the Spirit Awards sometimes do strange things too, but this year the Indie Spirit nominations are far less embarrassing than the Oscars.
Of course Nightcrawler and Selma are still up against Boyhood and Birdman at the Spirit Awards. So be it. That’s fine. We don’t have to see Selma or Nightcrawler beat Boyhood to be happy, do we?
If Selma had been nominated for the same Oscars as it’s 5 Spirit nominations, how many of those would it be winning against Boyhood and Birdman? Probably none. So be it. That’s not the point.
My point is, the Spirit Awards this year at least didn’t nominate all these sundry piles of crap that the Oscars foisted upon us to waste space — so that left the Spirit Awards with dozens of open slots that could be filled by worthier films. And that’s what happened.
At some point I get bored worrying about what a bunch of dried-up voters are doing with when their reputation is repeatedly tainted by bland tiresome taste — and instead I turn my attention to see what fresh sophisticated choices are being made by a group of voters who aren’t so out of touch.
Thank God this is Awards Daily and not Oscar Daily. Let’s try not to forget that.
Albert, I think Sasha just misused the term “weighted” when what she meant is “plurality.” BP no longer uses plurality to determine the winner, but the rest of the fields still do because they have 5 nominees. BP uses preferential now, but used plurality when it was 5 nominees. Weighted and preferential are the same.
Free tickets for Selma in 35 cities and counting. Local story linked below.
http://www.al.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2015/01/birmingham_joins_national_camp.html#incart_river
btw: I’m not aware that DuVernay has backed down on her portrayal of LBJ. Is that right? She seems to be sticking to her guns without talking about it…. letting her film speak for itself, and for her.
I wonder if Selma was ever on an Oscar contender schedule. Their deadline, and their energy, was on King Day and the Selma commemorations. Remember, Interstellar was going to be Paramount’s big Oscar push. I don’t think they, the film makers, care that much about awards, and in the case of Selma, I agree.
Is there any way to know whether which is better: a preferential ballot or a weighted one? Can they really determine such different winners? Why doesn’t the movie with the most votes simply win?
And from the same section in the 80th Academy Awards rulebook (2007): http://digitalcollections.oscars.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15759coll9/id/251
“5. In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall
be according to the preferential or weighted average system. Votes for
achievements in pictures not on the Reminder List will not be counted in the
nominations balloting. Tabulation offinal ballots shall be according to the
plurality system. No “write-in” votes shall be counted on the final ballot.”
“For nominations they always used preferential – but to pick winners they used weighted for BP when they had five – and they use weighted for all categories now except BP.”
From the 87th Academy Awards Official Rules sheet:
5. In the nominations voting, the marking and tabulation of all ballots shall be according to the
preferential, weighted average, or reweighted range voting system. Votes for achievements in motion
pictures not on the Reminder List will not be counted in the nominations balloting. Tabulation of final
ballots shall be according to the plurality or preferential system. No “write-in” votes shall be counted
on the final ballot.”
So it’s either preferential or single-choice plurality. Not weighted.
The Dude, King’s Speech also won some screenplay awards and was a virtual lock for the Oscar win there too.
Someone, Selma does have a chance to win best picture. Is it likely? It’s highly unlikely it’ll win. Given how much things have changed over the last decade, nay, the last few years…I’d say anything is possible at this point. I’ve learned one thing, never say, “It won’t happen.” Always leave a little bit of room for doubt.
Sorry to keep harping on this, but you keep saying Oscar used a weighted ballot for BP voting before the switch to preferential. They did not. As far as I can tell they used single-choice voting, which is very different from any weighted system.
For nominations they always used preferential – but to pick winners they used weighted for BP when they had five – and they use weighted for all categories now except BP.
Simone – The Imitation Game has made over 50 million dollars in the US, and will soon overtake Grand Budapest as the second biggest grossing Best Picture nominee this year. I’ve also seen loads of people saying what a great film it is. That’s why it’s still in the race.
It is remarkable how Weinstein has kept ”The Imitation Game” in the awards mix, even though it has yet to win anything major. I suppose that speaks to the machine behind it. It does check a lotta boxes that Oscar voters like: British: Check! Period biopic: Check! Story of an underdog overcoming the odds: Check! Some sort of disability: Check! And to be fair, the movie’s done well for an indie at the box office. Is it just possible that ”Imitation Game” and ”Theory of Everything,” another film about a British scientific genius, have stalemated each other? ”Theory of Everything” also has yet to really any major, except Best Actor in a Drama at the Golden Globes, where Eddie Redmayne beat Benedict Cumberbatch. Is Cumberbatch’s degree of difficulty in playing Hawkins far greater than Cumberbatch’s in portraying Turing? I also happen to think that Hawkins comes across warmer and more sympathetic. That said, I still think Academy voters want to spread the wealth, so ”Imitation Game” will most likely win for its Adapted Screenplay. Redmayne is gonna give Keaton a run for his money, and maybe ”Theory” wins Score, but I’m rooting for Alexander Desplat’s music to ”Grand Budapest Hotel.”
“As ever, pre-PGA discussions are mostly academic… and post-PGA discussions are mostly pointless.”
Pretty funny, Claudiu.
Except this year, it’s already kind of pointless at this point. And last year, it wasn’t settled post-PGA when 12 Years and Gravity tied there (man! that was so much fun!)
We might want to drum up drama by calling this year “The Imitation Boyman”, but to me, the 8 picture race is more like “Boyhood and the Seven Dwarfs”.
“However, at this point of the race in 2010, The King’s Speech was winning NOTHING except for lots of Best Actor (Colin Firth) … and we know what happened come Oscar time.”
True, but it DID have lots of best actor awards. And it was the only British movie in the race. And it made a lot more money. And didn’t had a competitor that checked every box TKS did, like The Theory of Everything. And it’s main competitor was a movie that was seen as too cold and dark to win Best Picture, with an unlikable lead.
And “Selma” obviously can’t win with only two nominations (second one being for… song) so let’s be clear: it’s a race between three movies: “Boyhood”, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “The Imitation Game” (“Birdman” isn’t nominated for editing) – and that’s all: all three have guilds’ love and all are nominated for picture/director/screenplay/editing.
“Boyhood” will win PGA and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (ha!) will win SAG award for best ensemble.
JAMDENTEL, I like the idea of people showing where they’ve ranked the BP nominees in their overall lists for the year.
Here’s where I placed them among the films I saw in 2014:
5. The Imitation Game
6. Selma
11. Birdman
35. American Sniper
36. Whiplash
44. The Grand Budapest Hotel
51. Boyhood
66. The Theory of Everything
I’m utterly amazed by how Harvey has been able to keep The Imitation Game in the public eye for so long, for such a weak film. If not for the subtle gay theme, and Cumberbatch, and, Weinstein, this film would have fallen aside days after TIFF. I will be surprised if it wins one Oscar. Meanwhile, the slightly better film, Theory of Everything has been pretty much sideline and made an afterthought.
Sorry to keep harping on this, but you keep saying Oscar used a weighted ballot for BP voting before the switch to preferential. They did not. As far as I can tell they used single-choice voting, which is very different from any weighted system.
Look out for Grand Budapest: it may win SAG ensemble. It has won the Major Prizes for Best Comedy (love factor) and has a huge and stellar cast (ensemble factor). A win there will cancel out Birdman. PGA and DGA will probably go Boyhood. That will cancel out The Imitation Game, Selma and American Sniper. The Baftas will finally throw The Grand Budapest Hotel out of the race since it will probably end up empty handed (except for original screenplay).
Unless SAG ensemble changes anything, the real fight for Best Picture is:
Boyhood – American Sniper – Selma.
And SAG or DGA could add either “The Imitation Game”, “Birdman” or “Grand Budapest Hotel” to the mix. But Boyhood has the precursors, American Sniper is the “hot” one in the race, right now, and “Selma” has become a moral duty for a significative part of the AMPAS… and I doubt they’ll think “Best Song” would be reward enough.
I’d say the race is, probably, right now…
1. Selma
2. American Sniper
3. Boyhood
4. The Imitation Game
5. Birdman
6. Grand Budapest Hotel
7. The Theory of Everything
8. Whiplash
Or, that’s my analysis. That will change, one SAG and DGA announce winners.
American Sniper will win the Producers Guild of America Award on Saturday, and Birdman will win the SAG Ensemble award on Sunday.
People are seriously overly in love with Boyhood that they think it can win THE ensemble prize at SAG.Like come on.
There will be a new Best Picture frontrunner by Saturday night….and people will be be saying Bye Bye to Boyhood all over twitter.
.
JH (Second post on this thread),
Yes the simulated ballots were posted. The write up and discussion can be found here: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/awards-daily-simulated-oscar-ballot-nominees/
“The only thing I disagree on is the chances you give to Sniper. I agree that in terms of precursor nominations and awards the 1% makes sense, but given that it’s the most talked about movie of the moment and that it might even reach $200m by the time voting ends I have a feeling it’s stronger than it might look. It looks more and more like a Best Picture winner by the minute.
However, I have to concede that strictly based on what we know right now your analysis is on point.”
Clearly, there’s a distinct chance I could be underestimating it at this point (though not that much, probably, as there’s no actual evidence of it being that strong, just speculation based on box-office and such, so, if I am underestimating it, I probably SHOULD be, based on what’s actually known right now). Statistically, it’s as dead as the other four, there’s no question there. And the reason I’m not going against that is simply because I don’t believe this ongoing discussion is necessarily improving its chances all that much, as, while it’s becoming a more and more popular pick, it’s, at the same time, becoming a more and more controversial one. It’s not clear (yet) whether it’s gaining any actual momentum to win BP, so I have to stick with the stats.
If it starts winning guilds left and right, I’ll certainly reconsider. But, if it doesn’t, well, then the theory that it’s not actually gained any momentum will have been confirmed, and it’ll be even deader. It remains to be seen. As ever, pre-PGA discussions are mostly academic… and post-PGA discussions are mostly pointless. 🙂 Such is the way of the Best Picture race…
Another addition to Team Birdman – nice!…
thanks Claudiu, I think you’re right. The only thing I disagree on is the chances you give to Sniper. I agree that in terms of precursor nominations and awards the 1% makes sense, but given that it’s the most talked about movie of the moment and that it might even reach $200m by the time voting ends I have a feeling it’s stronger than it might look. It looks more and more like a Best Picture winner by the minute.
However, I have to concede that strictly based on what we know right now your analysis is on point.
Excellent points about TIG, WW! And, finally, somebody has something nice to say about A Beautiful Mind! 🙂 A movie I’ve always loved – despite it not being without its flaws, it has a lot of awesome qualities as well (the score, the performances, etc.)…
“The Academy probably wouldn’t go for that, as it seems to embrace more universal fare in Song. I think this might also be why they ignored “Please, Mr. Kennedy” from Inside Llewyn Davis.”
Yeah, but, who knows, had they liked Inside Llewyn Davis more (one of the biggest snubs last year in the major categories), maybe they would have gone for the song as well. It’s not clear, and I get what you’re saying, that the song nominees aren’t normally as tied in to BP as the other categories are, but we don’t know that for sure. 🙂 I’d have to look, but I think there’s probably some example there, somewhere, of a song that never would have been nominated, had the movie it was in not received a lot of attention in other categories, BP included. Seems unlikely that there wouldn’t be one. It would certainly prove your point if there weren’t any… But I’m too tired to look now. 🙂 Maybe tomorrow, if I don’t forget.
Ugh. The Imitation Game winning might actually upset me more than American Sniper winning–that I could at least chalk up to politics. The Imitation Game, though, would either win because of TWC campaigning (bad) or as a compromise vote (worse). It’s not my least favorite film in the race–objectively, I think Theory and Sniper are weaker films–but it’s such an inorganic, tame, ahistorical pile of pre-fab awards-bait that the thought of it winning actively disgusts me. Even Theory would be better (albeit not by much).
I’ve seen the NSFC winner, Goodbye to Language, twice now. I’m not a huge Godard fan, and I won’t claim it’s one of the year’s best films, but it tries to do new things with the cinematic language and actively tackle philosophical issues. Some might say the NSFC were just being contrarian, but I get where they were coming from. I’d certainly pick it over most of the Oscar contenders.
My current ranking of the BP nominees, and where I rank them among the 94 films (so far) I’ve seen from this year:
– Birdman (#6)
– Selma (#8)
– Whiplash (#19)
– The Grand Budapest Hotel (#24)
– Boyhood (#33)
– The Imitation Game (#45)
– The Theory of Everything (#64)
– American Sniper (#76)
Alan Turing deserves to be remembered for his brilliant, code-breaking contributions to World War II, and his personal story was tragic, especially in how this gay hero was persecuted. He didn’t hide that he was gay to his friends, and when he was arrested for ”gross indecency,” he didn’t believe he did anything wrong. Clearly, he thought outside of the box, as a scientist and as a human being. And that’s where ”The Imitation Game” fails him. It’s a formulaic biopic, and even its closeted depiction of Turing could’ve been the same as one done 20 years ago. There’s nothing particularly clever or inventive about the structure of the movie that might’ve unlocked who he was. As opposed to, say, ”A Beautiful Mind,” an Oscar winner about another genius in cryptography. There, screenwriter Akiva Goldsman and director Ron Howard made us see the world through John Nash’s eyes, so we were led to believe the same delusions he had. Graham Moore’s screenplay invents some things (like a nonexistent spy who tries to blackmail him) to amp up the drama or tries to tear-jerk us (by making Turing name his machine after a boyhood crush, which didn’t happen). But even with Benedict Cumberbatch’s accomplished but cool performance, I always felt I was kept at arm’s length. And without any sign of any love life to humanize him, Turing remains remote, like a cipher.
Virtually impossible year in and year out to correctly predict the 5 Best Song nominations, but I thought Split the Difference (Hawke’s Boyhood song) would only get in kind of as a quirky thing. For one, it would need to be taken within the context of the film itself. Anyone who didn’t see the movie and just heard the song performed would think it’s pretty average, possibly even bad–but I think that’s possibly (quite probably) the point. If Mason Sr. was a great musician, he would have still been doing that years later and maybe even made a living off of it. The Academy probably wouldn’t go for that, as it seems to embrace more universal fare in Song. I think this might also be why they ignored “Please, Mr. Kennedy” from Inside Llewyn Davis.
Is “Birdman” really all THAT weird? I mean, it’s not going to win Best Picture, but I feel it’s just a modern version of the backstage drama, one of the oldest genres of them all. Hell, the second-ever Best Picture trophy went to a backstage drama, Broadway Melody.
I don’t think it’ll matter, but, should Boyhood actually lose Best Picture, I’m sure we’ll be looking back on that as the first sign that maybe it wasn’t as beloved within the Academy as it was everywhere else…
I guess what’s relevant about those six Boyhood nominations is that they were exactly those it was expected to get. Therefore, one could read it as the Academy showing it the expected amount of support, but not overwhelming support. No surprise 7th nomination – no Ellar Coltrane, no cinematography, no song… If they’d REALLY wanted to get it up to 8 or 9, like the top 3, they probably could have. So it is, in a sense, a potential sign of vulnerability, small though it may be.
Danem – absolutely!
Thanks Danem. Yes that trilogy is perfection.
Claudiu – On top of your comment about Boyhood’s rank of 4th in nomination totals, it’s also important for people thinking about that to keep in mind that this was never going to be in any of the craft categories (it had no original score, used real locations rather than sets, photography was mostly basic). So the fact that it ranks as high as 4th in nominations is actually pretty nice. Argo, for instance, would have been a more logical choice than Boyhood to rack up crafts nominations — Production Design, Costumes, Makeup — and still was a no-doubt winner despite missing out on all of those. I won’t even bring up the fact that it didn’t score the Director nod (okay, I just did). Two acting nods (one being the frontrunner) is a pretty nice luxury to go with a triple-bill of nominations for Linklater plus the one for Adair’s editing.
For those who haven’t been paying attention, the Academy seems to like to spread the wealth lately with Pic/Director splits happening all the time now and BP’s winning . It’s been a while since Slumdog’s dominance (8 Oscars) with 3 & 4 Oscars being pretty common since the BP field expanded. AMPAS could feel good about giving Boyhood 4 Oscars (Picture, Director, Supp Actress, Editing) while letting screenplay go to one of the other auteurs and spreading the rest of the wealth amongst the field.
Danem, i’d forgotten Me and Orson Welles was a Linklater movie. I really enjoyed that and was disappointed that Christian McKay did not get Oscar nommmed for it. What a great ensemble that was. It introduced me to Zoe Kazan who has gone to some impressive work as both a writer and an actor. Eddie Marsan is also one of my favorite character actors.
SCOTT – Your post was excellent and exceptionally worded. Linklater deserves everything he’s gotten this year and hopefully there will be more hardware to come. My wife and I just watched the Before trilogy for the first time ever over the past couple weeks. Incredible stuff. I love Linklater’s career, from Slacker to Dazed to Me and Orson Welles…it has been so wonderful and varied.
LBJ, that stands for Little Baby Jesus, right? Haha! 😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A0-u85aAYg
(Or, if it was someone else, thank you to that person!)
no prob
No, you saw right! I’d copied the thing without Selma, then posted it separately, but I guess Ryan noticed and added it at the end of my original message. 🙂 Thanks, Ryan! (Or, if it was someone else, thank you to that person!)
Nevermind. One second I didn’t see it, then refreshed, and it was there. Weird.
Claudiu, what about Selma?
“I still don’t see the case for Imitation or Birdman. I mean, why are they more front runners than Budapest? If we’re being realistic, do we really see a movie as weird as Birdman winning best picture?”
I agree that Budapest is probably in 2nd right now, barely; but I’m not sure this is the argument for it, and against Birdman (the stronger arguments are the statistical ones below), as Budapest would also be a highly, highly atypical winner (pretty much a pure comedy), even more so than Birdman. Dark/weird movies have won before: The Departed was pretty weird, NCFOM as well, American Beauty etc. – it’s more common than you’d think. The last pure comedy to win, on the other hand, is probably Annie Hall. Plus, Budapest isn’t exactly NOT WEIRD either. 🙂
“Imitation could have won, but it’s just not that good and the fact that it is so alike The King’s Speech and Theory of Everything actually hurts more than helps.”
I agree with all of this – I think these are The Imitation Game’s biggest problems, and the reasons why it’s not done as well as expected so far this season.
“My reasoning against a Birdman is that it would be an even more out there choice than Boyhood.”
Clearly. Boyhood is easily the least “out there” choice this season, from among the top 3 favorites. The Imitation Game would be the next one, but it just doesn’t seem strong enough, based on some key precursor misses (and the lack of wins).
***
I re-post my analysis from earlier on (which stands, as nothing’s changed since), in reference to the first comment above – see the Birdman and Budapest sections:
CLEAR FAVORITE (69% chances, so I guess about 1.45 odds, which, honestly, still seems a touch high to me)
1. Boyhood (only 4th in the ranking order by number of nominations at the Oscars, but we discussed last year how that’s not as much a factor under the preferential ballot or, indeed, in recent years, compared to, say, the 1990s or 1980s)
POSSIBLE SPOILERS (13%, 11%, 6%, I would estimate, probably a bit generously – see comment above)
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (no SAG acting nomination – only Return of the King, since the famous Braveheart case, has won BP without any such nominations and, yes, even Slumdog Millionaire had one -, no acting nomination at the Oscars – only 4 movies have won without one since 1960 -, lost the BFCA for Best Picture to Boyhood – only 3/16 movies have won BP without it since 1999)
3. Birdman (no Best Editing nomination – no movie has won without it since 1980 -, lost the Golden Globe for Comedy to The Grand Budapest Hotel – only one out of 9 Oscar BP winners, since 1963, to come from this category at the Globes has not won said category in the past, Annie Hall -, lost the BFCA for Best Picture to Boyhood)
4. The Imitation Game (no Best Director nomination at the BAFTAs or Golden Globes – no movie has won without either of these since The Sting, in 1974, which I believe is, in fact, the only exception, since applicable -, lost the BFCA for Best Picture to Boyhood)
OUT OF CONTENTION (1% chances in total, at best)
5. The Theory of Everything (no Best Director or Best Editing nominations, no DGA nomination, no Golden Globe Best Director nomination etc.)
6. American Sniper (no Best Director nomination, no SAG Ensemble nomination – or any SAG nominations at all, no Golden Globe Best Drama nomination etc.)
7. Whiplash (no Best Director nomination, no DGA nomination, no SAG Ensemble nomination, no Golden Globe Best Drama nomination etc.)
8. Selma (no Best Director, Best Screenplay or Best Editing nominations, no major guild nominations, no BAFTA nominations etc.)
“If Boyhood wins both, we’re looking at a Slumdog Millionaire Year. If Imitation Game wins… it’s a King’s Speech year. ”
While I know the context and meaning of the analysis (And agree with it), it still feels unfair to put those 2 films next to Boyhood and Imitation Game. While they are not Social Network or Hurt Locker, neither one is as badly written as King’s Speech or just flat out awful as Slumdog.
Richard Linklater’s getting the DGA, not just for his ingenious concept behind ”Boyhood” and its exquisite execution, but for his whole indie career. It’s spanned about 30 years, and this is the first time he’s gotten any DGA recognition. His output includes ”Slacker,” the ”Before” trilogy, ”Waking Life,” ”Tape,” and he’s been nominated 10 times for an Independent Spirit Award (and has yet to win). If anyone saw the Hollywood Reporter roundtable about directors, you could see Christopher Nolan, especially, giving him major props.
As for ”The Imitation Game,” as others have noted: Yes, Weinstein’s worked his magic in the past, but so far, it hasn’t actually WON any major prizes. It got skunked at the Golden Globes and the Broadcast Film Critics. And until the DGA and Oscar nominations, even its director, Morten Tyldum, was getting shut out most everywhere else. Still, there are movie pundits who insist that the Academy will anoint it as Best Picture. Time will tell, but I think the shift in ”The Imitation Game’s” Oscar campaign is telling … and a little desperate. It’s not about selling the movie as an artistic masterpiece or great biopic; it’s about quoting high-tech execs and LGBT leaders about how important it is to salute Turing’s legacy. Oh, and about recognizing how this gay hero was ”persecuted for his sexuality,” even though the movie scrupulously avoids showing Turing actually BEING gay.
I think that no one knows anything and is unlikely to until we hear from the PGA, SAG and DGA.
My reasoning against a Birdman is that it would be an even more out there choice than Boyhood. The trend from critics awards to industry awards to the academy awards has always tended to go from “out there choice” to “traditional choice.” From Social Network to Kings Speech, from Zero Dark Thirty to Argo, you get the drift.
Imitation Game has box office, more nominations, and is all in all a more traditional winner than Boyhood. What it lacks is momentum. People like to vote for a winner. Right now that momentum could change with the PGA.
Boyhood as previously stated has momentum, a respected director and has demonstrated across the board support. It’s weakness appear so far to be a low nomination count, low box office and a perceived lack of willingness to vote for its screenplay. It’s
It’s a perfect storm for an upset but I honestly don’t know what will happen. Weirdly enough I think if the awards were held in March and the season was longer we’d be looking at an Imitation Game win.
I still don’t see the case for Imitation or Birdman. I mean, why are they more front runners than Budapest? If we’re being realistic, do we really see a movie as weird as Birdman winning best picture? and Imitation could have won, but it’s just not that good and the fact that it is so alike The King’s Speech and Theory of Everything actually hurts more than helps.
If there is one real threat to Boyhood is Sniper.
I think it takes a daring creative director to allow his actors the freedom to backstory their characters and suggest moments. It’s risky to veer off script and only a very skilled director knows what to do with improv material and make it a part of the tapestry. Otherwise it’s a disjointed indulgent mess.
Robert Altman is the epitome of this style of director. He was not a dictator and worked with his actors to create life. It’s why actors love him. In Jaws, Spielberg allowed his trio of actors who had plenty of down time while Spielberg was working with the shark to create fully fleshed out characters which elevated the film to the masterpiece it is. Linklater is a collaborative director and so deserving of the awards attention he is finally getting this year.
I’m sticking with BOYHOOD until proven otherwise.
Once the other fall films came up less than roses, BOYHOOD took over the top spot and hasn’t been knocked off of it. Love BIRDMAN myself, but, it just doesn’t have the broad appeal of a BOYHOOD.
IMITATION GAME, SNIPER & BUDAPEST will likely siphon votes from each other rather than either BIRDMAN or, especially, BOYHOOD, leaving the Linklater still in the lead.
Boyhood all the way!
Bradley is winning BA and I’m disappointed by that.
Anybody notice how the ads for Imitation Game have been evolving over the past couple of weeks?
Anyone else notice the evolution of the American Sniper TV spots? They used have Chris Kyle saying:
I’m willing to meet my Creator and answer for every shot that I took.
Now he just says:
I’m willing to answer for every shot that I took.
It’s gone way beyond Judgement Day. Now Chris Kyle will kick anybody’s ass anytime anywhere who doubts he was right to kill 200 people.
I’m not making this up. I don’t even know how they edited that shot down, but they went to a lot of trouble to take The Creator right out of it.
[[And this fulfills my nightly quota for American Sniper sniping]]
I’m not predicting The Imitation Game right now.
However, at this point of the race in 2010, The King’s Speech was winning NOTHING except for lots of Best Actor (Colin Firth) … and we know what happened come Oscar time.
Every time I re-check the poll results, Boyhood’s lead just keeps growing. Wow! 77% is a freaking beatdown. It’s like when the New England Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts this past weekend. The only difference is that there was nothing deflated about Boyhood. 🙂
Hey -The Dude – buff up ’cause you may be in for a surprise. Anybody notice how the ads for Imitation Game have been evolving over the past couple of weeks? They now have a sense of urgency rivalled only by the Sniper ads.
They are workin’ it hard, but they are up against a male nostalgia piece. That’s a tall order. Maybe the AMPAS dudes will go with their softer side this year.
Daveinprogress. Yeah, that all makes a lot of sense. It takes a confident director to let their cast and crew do their work without much interference.
I guess I don’t know sometimes. I like both schools of thought, and I like the results of both. Linklater on one end and Fincher on the other. Although, then again, Fincher does a lot of takes, but it doesn’t mean he’s interfering. Hmm…
But having seen Boyhood 3 times now, I can say I love that movie, and I think it’s easily one of the best of the year. So either way, I’m happy.
Yeah, it’s Boyhood. The Imitation Game as much chance of winning Best Picture as I am to be nominated People Magazine’s Sexiest Man Alive.
Al, I learned pretty much early on that if i ‘got out of the way’ things would work much better. I worked in comedy and infotainment and some live news programs too (all Australian) and working with actors which i did on a satirical series, i had to keep a vision of what it was we were aiming for; but frankly and delightfully, i got to work with some of our best actors, so who was I to micro manage them and squeeze the life out of their performance? In the edit suite, it is a different story, and you get to (largely) shape it as you want; but letting good actors, act is directing 101 for me. If they are well cast, and they understand the script; let ’em go for it! It is a fine highwire, especially if you have financiers’/ executives who are breathing down your neck. It takes a strong but flexible personality to manage all of it. I admire directors that let the artists do their art. AND also get what THEY need to bring their vision to fruition. We’re all control freaks and monsters – it’s just to what degrees? 🙂
Count me in as one of the people who sees the PGA going all the way with Boyhood. I’ll be pretty surprised if it goes any other way. I also may be in the minority of people who doesn’t think The Grand Budapest Hotel poses much of a threat for the BP win either with PGA or Oscar. TGBH is such a stylized movie that I have a hard time seeing it getting the necessary consensus for a win on a preferential ballot. The fact it’s largely comedic also works against it a little, since Oscar tends toward more serious fare. (But for people holding out hope for TGBH to win PGA, Moulin’ Rouge won PGA and it’s also a highly stylized movie. That was before PGA was using the preferential ballot, though, or at least I think so. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.)
Alan (of NY), I should clarify, I definitely don’t think Linklater is lazy. Not for one second. I don’t see how he could have been, considering he spent 12 years creating his film, all the while spending his other time directing other films including the wonderful School of Rock and Before Midnight. 🙂
I’m sorry if that was the impression I gave. I don’t think any director is ever lazy. They have one of the hardest jobs you can have in tv and film production.
^ Allowing actors to input is a *method* that many great directors employ. It’s not like they are lazy and let the actors dictate. 🙂
I miss all the awards films going wide in January, feeding off the Oscar campaign.
Daveinprogress. That’s really cool that you were a tv director. Awesome! Anything I might know?
Anyway, I agree that Linklater had to have been hands on to a certain extent, considering how much of the film truly was his creation, but I remember Linklater saying in the making of the film document that as Ellar got older, for instance, he would give more of his own input and interpretation to how and where Mason Jr. should be going and how he would be thinking and reacting. So that’s where I get the idea that Linklater would let his actors have more freedom to give to their characters how they saw fit. Also, he just gives this sense of being so laid back.
But having never been involved in any kind of production, whether stage or studio, I have no real idea how involved directors really are. 🙂
Alan (of NY), yeah it still sucks that Fincher lost to Hooper. Fincher is very hands on. I don’t know, that year for some reason they just loved The King’s Speech. Go figure. 🙂
BTW, whenever I wrote or say Hooper, I always think of Jaws.
Well put, ALAN (OF NY). I don’t see Imitation as much of a factor. Birdman has its devotees, but is probably too offbeat to go the distance. I have a hard time seeing anything other than Boyhood winning BP. However, would it be much of a surprise if Budapest took the PGA?
Al, may I challenge your thought that Boyhood did not have that same degree of hands on input? Having been a tv director; i can’t easily conceive of actively and progressively holding a project across 12 years and still be across every detail and vision for the project. It is impressive, especially as there were so many variables that could have impacted the outcome for Linklater. I wholeheartedly agree with you on Inarritu and Anderson, as they are concepts requiring precision overview as well as hands on. There is always a tyranny here with great art in comparing the proverbial apples and oranges. Resorting to an old cliche – it is wonderful just to be nominated. The person who prevails or the movie that wins happens to have a right time right place narrative. How close those votes get, we don’t know.
Such different films and trajectories to this point. I don’t see much to prevent Boyhood and Linklater going all the way still. Although i try and interpret the literal brief of each award i.e best acting ensemble, outstanding production etc, these bodies themselves have lost their identity to some extent; becoming popularity contests rather than distinction. What constitutes outstanding production – degree of difficulty; scope of the production – locations, languages, working with children and animals? What do other producers see as the quintessential ingredients to a great production. Grand Budapest Hotel ticks a lot of boxes to me – it is grand and it is daring and it does use the medium so creatively. It has a distinctive vision – that is rare in cinema now. So too does Birdman and Boyhood in a conceptual rather than visual or logistic way. With the acting ensembles, the chemistry and dynamic of a group of actors making a narrative come alive is still different to ‘best film’. I don’t know if people can get that meta view on their craft and the actual prize being given out. I might just be cynical and not like their choices and blame them for being populist or lazy.
My response was to Al Robinson. 🙂
^ Tell that to Fincher for his TSN loss to King’s.
“I still think Grand Budapest Hotel is more of a threat than either Imitation Game or Birdman. 11 Oscar nominations, a well respected director, a Golden Globes win, lots of guild support.”
You might be thinking of the BAFTA’s… Grand Budapest has 11 BAFTA nominations, but only 9 Oscar nominations (the same as Birdman, and one more than The Imitation Game).
I still feel like it will be Boyhood taking home the PGA and the Oscar. I’m not convinced that it will be Boyhood winning the DGA, because I see that going to either Wes Anderson and The Grand Budapest Hotel or Alejandro G. Iñárritu and Birdman. I think that because, at least in my opinion, The Grand Budapest Hotel and Birdman seem like more hands on directed films.
On topic, I agree that the guilds can change things, but The Imitation Game has shown next to no ability to actually win awards this season after an impressive TIFF Audience award win. It seems like Weinstein trickery that it’s even in the conversation as a potential winner.
It seems insane to predict it as the winner… empty PR-fueled hype.
I still think Grand Budapest Hotel is more of a threat than either Imitation Game or Birdman. 11 Oscar nominations, a well respected director, a Golden Globes win, lots of guild support.
Did the results of the Simulated Nominations Ballot ever get posted? I haven’t seen them and I’d be curious to see them!
Weisntein can work magic, history has shown. But he doesn’t win every time, otherwise he’d have a BP winner every year that he’s in the business. He’s gotta have the right vehicle for his wizardry to take effect.
Shakespeare in Love and The King’s Speech were considered “lighter” fares to their hard-hitting counterparts. They’re about characters rather than about darker issues and history. The Imitation Game is heavy in comparison to Boyhood. Boyhood already possesses that universal human elements that The Imitation Game can’t supplant.