The five strongest and most popular films heading into the race are:
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
I knew there would have be some machismo thrown in there to balance out the twee from Budapest, the sentimentality from The Imitation Game, the hero in decline in Birdman and the sweet but not masculine boy in Boyhood. We got that with American Sniper, the steak eaters have proclaimed it such, as Anne Thompson would say. That leaves us with only four slots left.
In some ways, you have to throw all of the charts out the window. Though many of the pundits have been saying no to Gone Girl, many of them have been wrong about what movies ARE popular with the industry. They didn’t have American Sniper on their list but they all had Unbroken on it, Interstellar and other films. They had their “no” but they weren’t right about their yes, with the exception of the top three on this list. It took them a while to come around to Budapest and Sniper is the only late entry.
I remember Kris Tapley at one point saying that Clint Eastwood is the only director who can really pull in an 11th hour surprise and it looks like he might be right. You will have to ask him if you think it will win.
If you add BAFTA’s contribution, which is The Theory of Everything, you have a pretty good bet that these will all get in:
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
Theory of Everything
That’s six out of a potential nine and it leaves us with three slots. I also did my directing charts before and those told me that it’s pretty rare to be nominated for Best Director for Globes and Critics Choice and not get in for Best Picture. The only two that aren’t here so far would be Selma and Gone Girl. But let’s hold off on those for a minute and look at what else we have to go on.
There is a good chance that the PGA’s list will have to lose two titles. But which two? You can pretty much wind your clock by this fact. PGA went for:
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Boyhood
Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
American Sniper
Whiplash
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
Theory of Everything
Two have to be dropped and it isn’t going to be our fixed titles so I’ve crossed them off now. And you have:
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Boyhood
Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
American Sniper
Whiplash
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
Theory of Everything
To further complicate things, in 2011, David Fincher’s Dragon Tattoo had all the requisite nominations but missed on a Best Picture. So keep that in mind as well. So let’s look at what’s left:
Nightcrawler
Whiplash
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
Of these, which has an Eddie? Three out of five. So I’m dumping Foxcatcher as one of the films that gets dropped.
That leaves three and one has to go:
Whiplash
Nightcrawler
Gone Girl
Conventional wisdom will tell you (re: what pundits are saying) that Gone Girl is dumped and you should go with that. I’m actually going to dump Nightcrawler, though I loved it with a passion because on a preferential ballot I’m not sure it’s going to get enough number ones. Foxcatcher, Gone Girl and Nightcrawler all have that thing about them that Inside Llewyn Davis had – that anti-hero non-feelgoody thing that makes people not want to root for the characters. I think broad guild support will help Gone Girl get in and I think passion will work in Selma’s favor. Alas, I don’t think there will be enough preferential heat for Foxcatcher or Nightcrawler but I could be TOTALLY WRONG here. Don’t you be like me. Let’s the Globes be a lesson in bad predicting. That leaves my final predictions for Best Picture as follows:
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Boyhood
Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
Whiplash
Gone Girl
Theory of Everything
Selma
I’m sticking to it. Worse case scenario, I get it wrong.
And here are the Gurus of Gold charts from Movie City News going back to 2011 – as you can see, we were pretty sure about ourselves except in 2011 because no one could have really seen Extremely Loud coming (although I think Scott Feinberg says he did). It does feel like a wacky year but I think I have to put my trust in the Gurus. But it’s close, my friends, it’s close.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
again. film awards don’t have anything to do with Selma’s release date. They released in the week leading into MLK weekend. The release date alone should tell us that honors for the film makers isn’t at the top of their list of priorities.
Before any of the precursors, and before anyone else was saying it, I said here in AwardsDaily that The Grand Budapest Hotel was going to be nominated for Best Picture. Just want that go on record. 🙂
” If Moonrise Kingdom can be overlooked why not Budapest?”
Because Moonrise Kingdom didn’t have nearly as much support. It had a random PGA nod and a WGA nomination (most knew it would nab the nomination for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars), but no SAG or DGA nod, so its exclusion wasn’t surprising. If Budapest were to be left out with its massive support across the guilds, it would be incredibly shocking.
That’s a rather extreme NGNG
Not really considering the most favorable outcome for Wes Anderson has been a few screenplay noms and a best animated. If Moonrise Kingdom can be overlooked why not Budapest?
“Yes, I know what it’s got. It has hit on all cyclinders in the pre-cursors, but I’m trying to have faith the Academy has seen through it….”
Ah, I see. That’s a rather extreme NGNG. I found the film rather overrated myself (it’s ok, but definitely one of Anderson’s weaker works).
HAWKEYE
JANUARY 14, 2015
Oh I wouldn’t say GBH is dispensable at all. PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, ACE, 11 BAFTA noms. No, it’s most definitely in the top five.
Yes, I know what it’s got. It has hit on all cyclinders in the pre-cursors, but I’m trying to have faith the Academy has seen through it….
Not quite a NGNG vote, but I really think Foxcatcher is going to be an afterthought tomorrow. Ruffalo might be the film’s only nomination in any category…maybe makeup as well, but that’s it.
For me what is the important difference between the two is the “prestige” of the filmmakers within the industry. For lack of a better word, DuVernay, Oyelowo & Co. are Oscar rookies while Eastwood, Cooper & Co. are veterans, with multiple nominations and wins between them. It’s much easier for these veterans to resonate in a short amount of time with voters than it is for a director and actor that don’t have an Oscar track record yet, who don’t come with a “they were also great in this Oscar nominated film from years ago” foundation.
Not to mention the fact that American Sniper’s campaign was by all accounts done quite well, while Selma’s lack of screeners turned their nomination season into a fiasco.
LCbaseball22: It’s interesting you should mention the WGA, because it’s quite possible that the only reason that American Sniper is in there is due to them deeming Theory of Everything ineligible. Then again, it may have been Guardians knocked out if Theory had been included. This is why the WGA’s silly rules are rather infuriating. The point is, Theory would most definitely have been included over one of those two.
Getting the ACE nom is pretty good, but it’s still no substitute for grabbing three SAG noms, including Best Cast. Still, it’ll be very interesting to see what the five Film Editing nominees are tomorrow. Chances are that neither film will make it in what is a really tight category (Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Whiplash, and…. lots of films that could fill that last spot).
Should have said ACE not Eddie and oh there’s the WGA as well. Really the only one major it missed with was SAG but Cooper is the only one that stood a chance, right? It’s not really an ensemble film and they may have thought three in a row for Cooper to be a bit much and wanted to spread love elsewhere…
I just found it weird that Sasha was trying to say that American Sniper was in the top five when there’s overwhelming evidence to the contrary.,
Not if the Guilds are anything to go by, right?
PGA
DGA
Eddie
Julian: Oh I totally agree the order makes no difference that far down. I just found it weird that Sasha was trying to say that American Sniper was in the top five when there’s overwhelming evidence to the contrary.,
Releasing a big Oscar movie at Christmas and having it reap the benefits is getting harder and harder. Paramount probably should have released “Selma” in November – around the same time “12 Years A Slave” was released. Last year, by the time the critics started to vote in December, “12 Years” was already seeped in their consciousness. “Selma” will get the Best Picture nomination it deserves, but probably could have been more a front runner if it were released earlier. Even “American Sniper” had a uphill climb getting in front of critics and guild voters. When the critics and guilds started voting – “Birdman”, “Boyhood”, “Budapest”, “Imitaiton Game”, “Theory”, “Whiplash”, and “Gone Girl” were all dominating the conversation, making it tough for other movies to squeeze in, especially given the fact how easily groupthink starts to permeate these awards bodies. Incidentially, those seven movies plus Selma and Sniper will probably be the best picture nominees. Hard to see the dour “Foxcatcher” get in and if they didn’t nominate “Drive” a few years ago, they’re not gonna nominate “Nightcrawler”.
“Also I agree with dumping “Foxcatcher.” This is one of those cases where I thought it was in until I saw the movie, and realized it basically sucks.”
Does it suck more than American Sniper? ‘Cause one of them is getting in…
I paste here my final Best Picture nomination predictions. I have 10, so I guess that’s my prediction for number of nominees. In any case, what I’m saying, above all else, is that, whether it be 7, 8 or 9 – and I have no idea which it’ll be -, it will be 7, 8 or 9 of these 10. So, no Nightcrawler. Here they are, from most to least likely, as far as I’m concerned:
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
Selma
American Sniper
Hawkeye: Can I just make it clear that neither AS or TToE is in my predicted top five (that would be Boyhood, Birdman, TIG, TGBH and Selma in that order), so this is a curious discussion. I have them as number 6 and 7 right now. Who gets to be number 6, who gets to be number 7? Well, who cares, really. I think they are both in (and I hope that leaves room for my number 8 and 9, Whiplash and Nightcrawler, respectively.)
“determinant. Did I mention I hate autocorrect?
“the correlation between SAG ensemble nomination and BP is famously historically weak. you guys should know that by now. sometimes they match up, sometimes they don’t.”
When you look at it alone, yes, but when you couple it with everything else, it becomes a pretty good determinant. Pretty much the heart of the Theory of Everything vs. American Sniper debate.
SAG is just one indicator and it’s not a very recent one.
the correlation between SAG ensemble nomination and BP is famously historically weak. you guys should know that by now. sometimes they match up, sometimes they don’t. maybe this year they will, but it’s a crap shoot.
Oh, I missed the other part of your question Benutty…
Well TFA (TheFilmArt) Awards somehow have American Sniper as one of the ten with only two other nominations, both of which are in the sound categories.
This is the thing I find interesting about Selma and its chances in the BP race.
As an example, Pete Hammond in his Gold Derby predictions updated yesterday has both Selma and DuVernay as nominees, but not a single other nomination for Selma. (I’m guessing he believes it’ll get a Song nod, but he has chosen to not make those picks). Regardless, how likely is it for a film to get only TWO nominations and for those nominations to be the two most prestigious?
That example is why I’ve left Selma off my predictions. Other than Song, its position in every other race is precarious at best, meaning that the only way it gets in for Director and/or Picture is if it makes it into Writing and Actor, otherwise we have a MAJOR precedent on our hands.
I just can’t imagine anyone voting Whiplash number one. Sure, the movie has a lot of strong elements, but it has some pretty obvious flaws too and it’s probably more admired than loved. I think it misses Best Picture.
By the way, The Imitation Game will LEAD all nominees with 9 or 10 nods, but that really won’t mean anything. Birdman is only good for 8, and Boyhood only 6. The Grand Budapest Hotel gets 8 or 9.
I think Sasha is going to go 9 for 9 this year. I totally agree with her predictions for Best Picture nominations.
It know it will never happen, but I would be so jazzed if “Snowpiercer” got in there for the 10th nomination. What a SHOCKER that would be, yes?
Interstellar gets Visual Effects and the 2 sound categories, but Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes and Score are long shots I’d say. The first 2 of those 4 are the most likely, but I have my doubts. I’m calling 4 below-the-line nods for Interstellar, but I want to say 3. It gets nowhere near Best Picture.
It seems this site didn’t like that other link, maybe this will work better- http://i.imgur.com/lPbrMbx.jpg
Basically from the looks of it they are striving to be more like many of us wish the Oscars were without skewing TOO much towards popularity and becoming the People’s Choice Awards, MTV Awards, etc.
For what it’s worth these have been their selected winners of year’s past…
2013- Gravity
2012- Django Unchained
2011- The Artist
2010- The Social Network
2009- Avatar
2008- The Dark Knight
2007- Atonement
2006- El Labertino Del Fauno
2005- Brokeback Mountain
2004- The Aviator
2003- Lord of the RIngs: Return of the King
2002- Lord of the Rings: Two Towers
2001- Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
2000- Gladiator
*those. Not home. Stupid autocorrect.
Julian: the point is that we’re talking about the most powerful guild and the most powerful branch of the Academy. So obviously, if SAG embraces one film and not another, they’ve thrown their weight behind home they’ve voted for. We’re not talking about winning Best Picture, but rather those that has a shot (ie the strongest films). Again, Theory is here with the support of the actors. Sniper is not, meaning that Theory has much more support. It’s not a 100% method ( Gravity being a clear example), but when we look evywhere else, we also see that Theory has had much more support than Sniper. It doesn’t get much clearer than that.
LOL at myself because I still have Interstellar in my top 10 of likely BP nominees because I still see it getting 6 below-the-lines and I don’t see it becoming the first 6-time nominee since the ~10 era to not be nominated for Best Picture. Also, I think it deserves a spot. I have, on the other hand, given up on the idea that Nolan will be nominated.
They’ve been doing the 10 film Best Picture thing for a while and kudos for the following inclusions…
2001-Memento,Black Hawk Down,Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone
2002-Road to Perdition
2004-Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl
2005- Batman Begins
2006- Children of Men, Blood Diamond, The Prestige,
2008-WALL-E, The Dark Knight, In Bruges, Iron Man
2009-Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince, Star Trek, 500 Days of Summer
2010-Shutter Island
2011-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hawkeye: But we’re not talking about WINNING BP! We’re talking about cracking into the top 5. Sure, it takes a SAG ensemble nom to win BP, but to crack the top 5? No way. To follow your logic, the 5 SAG ensemble nominees are absolutely 100% safe BP nominees (and not only that, they are also secured a top 5 finish), which is, obviously, not the truth. There are hundreds of factors (well, 6,000 if you count the individuals!) that play a role in determining the accurate placement of the BP nominees. SAG is just one indicator and it’s not a very recent one.
These guys have traditionally made better picks than the Oscars-thefilmart.com/2014-tfa-movie-awards/
Clint was at the Governor’s Awards chatting it up, not hiding backstage as some are prone to do. We know the old white conservative male contingent of the Academy is a force to be reckoned with, and unfortunately they will probably embrace American Sniper (not for the win, but for too many nominations besides its inevitable well-deserved Sound nod(s)). Jingoistic politics aside, the film certainly had intense action sequences, but they became redundant by the 4th tour, nobody to root for except Bradley whom we know lives, and there wasn’t even an attempt to explain the politics (beyond we good, them bad). I think Clint has some fine work (Outlaw Josey Wales, Letters from Iwo Jima), but his sensibilities often suffer from cartoonish characterizations, like Hillary’s family and the evil boxer whom Morgan beats up in Million Dollar Baby – yes of course I cried at the end, despite myself, having cringed at huge flaws like that along the way. But he’s the Republican guard’s poster-MAN, people vote for their friends, he has many.
Last year I was rooting for Inside Llewyn Davis and Best Picture and Best Actor and they were both snubbed. This year I’m rooting for Nightcrawler and Jake Gyllenhaal for those same categories. If they don’t make it in, BLAME ME. I am a curse.
My final BP predictions:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
NGNG:
– Academy members shirk the film’s category fraud and nominate Carell for Supporting Actor in Foxcatcher.
– Naomi Watts is nominated for Supporting Actress, but for Birdman as opposed to St. Vincent.
– Amy Adams sneaks into Best Actress for Big Eyes, replacing Jennifer Aniston.
– American Sniper momentum carries Cooper to a Best Actor nomination despite any precursor support (a la Clint in Million Dollar Baby); David Oyelowo is sadly the actor left off the list.
– Birdman leads the nomination count with 10, followed closely by Imitation Game and Grand Budapest with 8 each.
Does anyone know if NPR’s Morning Edition will cover the announcements? Tomorrow will be the first time in 19 years I won’t be able to watch the nominations live. Damned morning commute.
OT – but fascinating nonetheless:
http://i.imgur.com/dvYThYz.jpg
Also, I don’t agree “American Sniper” is such a LOCK for BP, not on the same level as the other four. But yes I do think it will be nominated.
I think you have the BP nominees exactly right, Sasha. I don’t see how one justifies putting “Nightcrawler” as more likely than “Gone Girl,” “Whiplash,” or “Selma.” As for the “little-movie-that-CAN (get nominated),” that will go to “Whiplash,” which is considerably more lovable than “Nightcrawler,” and not so dark and bleak. “Nightcrawler” is an awesome movie (one of my favorites this year), but its recognition will come in the form of a much-deserved Best Actor nom for Gyllenhaal.
Also I agree with dumping “Foxcatcher.” This is one of those cases where I thought it was in until I saw the movie, and realized it basically sucks. It would be nominated because of mental laziness, because it “looks” like a BP nominee. But no. “Gone Girl” is a similar type of movie to “Foxcatcher”, but much better, and did way better at the box office, and has more widespread support.
Finally, I think “Selma” is safe. True it didn’t get great guild support, but that was probably because of problems with screeners. The Academy will recognize the movie as momentous (as they did with 12 Years). It won’t go all the way, and Oyelowo and DuVernay may not make the cut (though I think they will), but it should be safe for a BP nom.
Julian: Missing the SAG nomination for Best Cast is a huge deal. You probably already know this, but the Best Picture has almost always been included in those nominees. Theory if Everything made it in, and it’s not even much of an ensemble film. The actors didn’t embrace Sniper, therefore its chances are not nearly as good as Theory’s… And that doesn’t even have much of a chance.
I think there are gonna be some big shockers tomorrow in the acting categories.
I also think there really are only four TRUE locks for Best Pic: Boyhood, Birdman, Imitation Game, Grand Budapest Hotel. Theory, Sniper, Foxcatcher, Selma, Gone Girl, Whiplash, Nightcrawler all vying for the other spots and any combo of those could happen.
My Predictions: Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel, Birdman, Imitation Game, Theory of Everything (boring), American Sniper (yawn), Gone Girl, Foxcatcher
About American Sniper
don’t you think that directing and acting nominations for Cooper AND Miller are possible?
“To further complicate things, in 2011, David Fincher’s Dragon Tattoo had all the requisite nominations but missed on a Best Picture. So keep that in mind as well.”
Ah…but so could American Sniper. I know both movies are different from the other but you just never know. Into the Wild hit a lot of guilds too but missed on everything but 2 nominations. The only movies I can think of that got best director nominations sort of out of the blue were Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour, maybe Silver Linings Playbook. Russell, Haneke and Zeitlen were surprise nominees and all had critical awards and support throughout the year even though they missed with the BFCA, GG and DGA. So looking back it’s not so surprising all three made it in, or at least by todays standards it’s an easier pill to swallow seeing how they made it in. Now American Sniper and Eastwood are a different story. Sniper is a late release and didn’t score with any critics groups and missed with the BFCA and GG. Guilds aside, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of universal support for the film. True, Eastwood is one of the few directors who can throw a wrench into the party when it’s just starting to wrap up. However, again, the support doesn’t seem as acclaimed enough for a film to get a best director nomination. Best picture? Maybe. Blind Side, War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close all got best picture nominations for being liked but not loved. They hit with some guilds but not the critics, therefor no best director love.
I think Selma is in, although I’m worried for Oyelowo. The late surge for American Sniper and the Academy’s apparent love for the guy could carry Bradley Cooper to a third nod in as many years. And Gyllenhaal seems like a strong potential contender, to boot.
That said, Guardians of the Galaxy is my No Guts, No Glory. There’s absolutely no reason that nomination should happen, but I’m hoping against hope.
Hawkeye: SAG is a long time ago by now. AS hadn’t really registered back then. Its impact is far more pronounced now. The race is an organic, fluid thing, not a static set of determinants. You have to look at where the race is at right NOW. I’m not sure AS is quite in the top five (yet, anyway), but missing a SAG nom hardly counts. Furthermore, it’s not the kind of movie that would have figured in that race no matter how well established its BP prospects had been back then.
I would definitely have to dispute that American Sniper is in the top five. True, it got nods from the PGA and DGA (only because Selma got snubbed in both thanks to Paramount), but The Theory of Everything got nods from the PGA and SAG (Best Cast most importantly). The latter is far more important than getting the DGA nod because it shows great support from the all-important actors, and that’s despite it not really being much of an ensemble film. Switching these two reveals our true top five.
Predicting
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
It might also be noted that Imitation Game has a slightly higher IMDB score than King’s Speech, though of course the latter has been out for years now and had the score has probably settled in its position on the Top 250 to a greater extent. We will have to wait and see if Imitation Game can maintain a Top 250 placement a four years from now.
Just thought I’d throw in a few cents on Imitation Game; I know there’s been a lot of outrage over it’s inclusion as a front runner and Tyldum’s nomination yesterday but from the looks of it the film Is indeed a very strong audience favorite. Not only did it win TIFF but I’ve seen numerous FB friends proclaiming how wonderful the film is, best of the year they’ve said. I remember similar with Kings Speech…
“For me what is the important difference between the two is the “prestige” of the filmmakers within the industry. For lack of a better word, DuVernay, Oyelowo & Co. are Oscar rookies while Eastwood, Cooper & Co. are veterans, with multiple nominations and wins between them”
See, this is where I agree with you, Benutty (even though the truth is probably a little more complex than just rookie vs. veteran, but it’s a big part of the story)
“Last year, McQueen and 12 Years a Slave was a mostly rookie team, but they had the benefit of a very long season of word-of-mouth and support.”
Absolutely.
As Sasha, and evidently Kris Tapley, have said: Eastwood is definitely a late inning threat. I describe this phenom in greater detail here: http://sectioneighty.com/oscar-watch-eastwood-is-a-late-inning-threat/?doing_wp_cron=1421243272.1120269298553466796875
re: “I remember Kris Tapley at one point saying that Clint Eastwood is the only director who can really pull in an 11th hour surprise and it looks like he might be right.”
I think this is a really important thing for people to acknowledge when talking about American Sniper and Selma’s chances at getting in for Oscars at such a late time of the game. They both premiered on the same night at the same festival and Selma came out with stronger reviews, but American Sniper is the one capitalizing with the nominations.
For me what is the important difference between the two is the “prestige” of the filmmakers within the industry. For lack of a better word, DuVernay, Oyelowo & Co. are Oscar rookies while Eastwood, Cooper & Co. are veterans, with multiple nominations and wins between them. It’s much easier for these veterans to resonate in a short amount of time with voters than it is for a director and actor that don’t have an Oscar track record yet, who don’t come with a “they were also great in this Oscar nominated film from years ago” foundation. Last year, McQueen and 12 Years a Slave was a mostly rookie team, but they had the benefit of a very long season of word-of-mouth and support.
@Serena
I’m hardly being vague, first of all. Secondly, I’m not saying she has to like every film; however, the diatribes she goes on when something she loves is overlooked for something well respected and beautiful (in the opinions of others) seems a little juvenile and bitter.
Sasha, I agree completely with your predicted titles (assuming they nominate 9).
American Sniper will suprise tommorow when the Academy Award Nominations will be announced!
Picture
Director
Leading Actor
Screenplay
Some Technical Categories
Maybe Supporting Actress
We will see…
I must say, Alonso, that of your list of superhero films, you seem to have missed what I believe has been the most solid comic book adaptation in recent memory, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. I’m really hoping for a best cinematography/editing nod from the academy for it.
I agree, Sasha, Nightcrawler would be my pic to drop. Still not sure if Sniper will get a nom either. Leaning towards yes, but only just.
Boyhood
Birdman
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
American Sniper
Whiplash
Selma
And that’s it for me. I think there might even be 8 noms this year. The whole “number one votes” thing keeps playing over in my head. I think only eight films will get enough love from the Academy this year to make it in.
Go ahead and doubt Whiplash at your own peril. That movie PLAYS even on a DVD screener at home. There are few films in the race this year that translate that well no matter the viewing experience.
I’m saying Gone Girl is in, but Selma is out. That’s what it looks like to me. And if Bradley Cooper DID sneak into Best Actor, I’m saying he bumps Steve Carell. Don’t be surprised if that happens. Also, entirely possible that Duvall gets knocked off to make way for Josh Brolin and either Aniston or Felicity Jones gets bumped for Amy Adams.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for “Selma”. It’s aiming to probably lose Picture, Director, Actor and even Screenplay noms. It may very well end with just an Original Song nom. This is the Oscars, so maybe “Selma” is in, but in my book, this is going…
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Imitation Game
4. Grand Budapest Hotel
5. American Sniper
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Whiplash
8. Foxcatcher
9. Nightcrawler
10. Selma
If there’s a shocker… it’ll likely be a “Guardians of the Galaxy” Best Picture nom. It’d be my NGNG, as I can clearly see it, being nominated for Adapted Screenplay AND Film Editing AND both Sound Cathegories AND Make Up AND Visual Effects… I don’t recall if it also made the cut for Production Design – Art Direction and Costume Design, but in both catheogories it wouldn’t be a shocker, anyways… the guilds support can launch it to Best Picture, it’s an universally loved film and certainly Marvel Studios is bound to have a Best Picture nominee, some day… specially since it’s high time a superhero film is nominated for the big award… it’s not like there has been enough Best Picture nomination calibre films in the genre, so far… and I’m not talking about “The Dark Knight”, only… but looking back, “Spiderman”, “Spiderman 2”, “Superman”, “Superman II”, “Watchmen”, “Iron Man”, “Captain America: The First Avenger”, “Marvel’s The Avengers” were all Best Picture calibre, thanks to reviews and box office. It’s been just a matter of genre bias.
We’ve got the same Best Picture picks, Sasha! So glad “American Sniper” is finally getting some love. I’ll be right beside you in spirit on Thursday morning, pulling for “Gone Girl” and “Selma” nominations. Are you going with the DGA picks for Best Directing?
@Vincent
It sounds like you’re the one acting childish. Sasha is under no obligation to show respect for a film she believes is overrated.
And that Michael B. Jordan/Miles Teller comment was just silly. What exactly are you trying to say there?
Whiplash was wonderful, and Chazelle has to be nominated. I thinkt there’s a mistake in the charts; Extremely Loud wasn’t nominated for the PGA. But lest we underestimate the importance of BFCA and arguably Unbroken’s status, I forgot how well Extremely Loud did there (a win for Young Actor and nominations for Picture and director)!
Are we doing top tens? As it stands I’d have to go to twenty to get a decent chunk of “Oscar movies” in there and then still hardly any.
I’d also like to share just how crazy this Oscar race has been for me. When I first started predicting what would win Best Picture, I had Gone Girl, then I had Unbroken, then I had Interstellar, then I went back to Unbroken. Then I finally came to the conclusion it’s probably going to be Boyhood. BUT, I am sticking with the thought that if any movie could sneak past it in the last lap, I think it would be American Sniper.
Sasha, this is one reason I love coming here. The way you break it down, so that it’s easy to understand, plus, you consider everything. I’m glad you include your own personal feelings as well, because you opinions is one that I really respect. With that said, here is my top 10 (without having yet seen American Sniper, Whiplash, and The Theory of Everything)
1. Gone Girl
2. Unbroken
3. Birdman
4. Interstellar
5. Selma
6. Guardians of the Galaxy
7. Boyhood
8. Nightcrawler
9. Fury
10. The Grand Budapest Hotel
So, I know that some of my favorites will be left off the Best Picture lineup. I’m sure I’ll be sad, and happy at the same time.
I have a feeling that Selma is going to make it, and I’m hoping very much that so does Gone Girl.
I think the 9 for Best Picture will be:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Wow, I agree with two sentiments here: ”If anyone is overlooked, it’s Miles Teller” and ”Whiplash is overrated!” And I don’t think I’m being contradictory. Teller knocked himself out, but I found the story ridiculously contrived and J.K. Simmons’ bullying villain so over-the-top.
I agree with Sasha’s 9 for many of the reasons she listed.
I also believe that Selma is the big wild card and its inclusion/exclusion will be key in determining the flow of several races.
Id love to speak my thoughts more detailed on best film and of the acting categories, but I feel like I would jinx performances/films I love by even talking about them right before nom announcement. I will divulge after Thursday morning haha.
I’m hoping that Cotillard or Blunt gets the 5th slot!
Plus, I’m not sure Whiplash gets in.
I think the 9th slot will go to GG. Fincher has a lot of techy fan boys in The Academy, and it’s hard to see Nightcrawler out placing it. This from one who couldn’t much stand GG, by the way.
Whiplash is overrated!
It portrays Stockholm syndrome and vindicate the abusive actions.
On another note, BCoop has me worried. With AM surging the way it is, I can see Cooper getting nominated at Jake’s expense. 🙁 Most of the pundits still think Jake will be nominated so i’m clinging to that.
I dont see Robert Duvall getting much love from the Academy, so they could put Josh Brolin or Chris Pine in there ala Jonah Hill. If they dont love Aniston, Adams or Blunt will take the spot.
I hope we see 10 nominees this year. I’d love to see both Nightcrawler and Gone Girl make the cut.
The weird thing about American Sniper that with the exception of that Bafta script nod, ONLY the guilds embraced it which suggests that even though it may not look it, it DOES have support from just the right people : guild and Bafta voters a.k.a. a bunch of actual Academy voters. Another weird thing, that we all consider Cooper a major threat for a nomination even though he failed to score a single major nod (or critics award) for his performance.
http://awardscorner.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/2014-nominations-chart.html
By the way, is anyone expecting a BIG surprise in the acting categories ? I am. At least one of the Emily Blunt, Ellar Coltrane, Naomi Watts (Birdman), Chris Pine quartet.
Sometimes these kind of boards remind me of children, stomping about the room if they don’t get their way and just insulting others that do.
“American Sniper” is a damn good film. Maybe people voting like it better than “Selma.” Maybe it’s the screener scenario. Either way, if you’re a film fan, have a shred of respect.
I just hope “Whiplash” makes it into the Best Picture race. And if anyone is being overlooked, it’s Miles Teller for his stunning performance. If it was Michael Jordan giving the same performance, I’m sure this board would be going NUTS that h gotten no love.
Foxcatcher over Whiplash. That’s an easy call. The rest look pretty solid to me.
This is so nerve wracking. I still dont think American Sniper will make the cut but I could wrong. They usually omit one or two movies that have been on many nominations, but dont really win anything. I am thinking Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler could be those two, Sasha.