Birdman Takes the Producers Guild in a Surprise

I’m sorry, too. 🙂

Well, if I can’t convince you that Boyhood looks and feels more “normal” and conventional and a lot less “weird” than Birdman, then I can’t convince you of anything. 🙂

I’m not as convinced of PGA power prediction as you are. They were only “half right” last year. The preferential ballot similarity is not close to a sure thing when the race is tight. There are also things like demographics. If Oscar voters are 75% male, then PGA members (made up of producers, which is predominantly male in the industry) is probably closer to 90%. I’m not venturing far when I’m guessing that women most likely prefer Boyhood over Birdman, especially when one of the central characters is a salt of the earth mom.

Anyway, we’ll see. DGA can’t come soon enough.

Claudiu,

I’m not changing facts to support an argument. I’m simply trying to prove that PGA is not necessarily the iron clad predictor that many like to believe. When you have two movies tied, your chance of guessing is doubled. Without having the data of how many votes separated Boyhood and Birdman, without the data of how many votes 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle had at the Oscars, we’re just assuming that PGA is a fully reliable precursor, end all be all. When the race might be close, there is no way of knowing if PGA is all that reliable. DGA has a more reliable record, which is even more impressive when a few of their winners aren’t even nominated for BD at the Oscars, there are years where there are inevitable split BP/BD winners.

When the race is close, the 10 pics ballots vs. 8 pics ballots can make a difference. What do the championers of Gone Girl, Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher (movies about psychopaths, movies that aren’t on the Oscars ballots) put as their second favorites? More likely Birdman than Boyhood. Just guessing here.

I didn’t say that Linklater doesn’t have a style. I said “distinctive”, in comparison to Inarritu. Boyhood vs Birdman, Birdman is way more in-your-face with his style. The 12 years thing is not a cinematic “style”. It’s a behind the scene directorial choice. But when comes to shooting, Linklater remains low-key, like all of his other movies. For all honesty, you can’t say that Boyhood is as stylized as Birdman. Not remotely close.

“Yes, PGA’s win is a powerful indicator, or not at all. Had Gravity ranked higher than 12 Years a Slave in just ONE ballot (out of thousands) last year, it would have been declared as the sole winner at the PGA. And including that with its subsequent DGA win, we would have thought 12 Years a Slave was dead at the Oscars, right?”

Actually, I’m not so sure. Gravity still had an extremely powerful combination of snub-stats to contend with (WGA+Oscar screenplay snubs, PLUS the SAG Ensemble snub) – you can usually get past ONE major snub, a la Argo, but not more. And 12 Years still would have been the winner at the BAFTAs (also a very powerful precursor), BFCA and the Globes for Best Picture. And the third option, American Hustle (the SAG Ensemble winner), would have had no major BP wins at all. I think it would have been fucked up beyond description, but I’m not even sure Gravity would have been my pick, considering only the stats. Complex comparisons would have to be made… but, either way, 12 Years would most definitely NOT have been dead. Probably not the favorite, but still very much in it, even more so than Lincoln was against Argo (as Lincoln had NOT won the BAFTA/Globe/BFCA BP prize). You could not have ruled 12 Years out – you’d have been foolish to do so.

Besides, you’re twisting the argument to fit your desired outcome here anyway: if we’re allowed to come up with a theoretical, retroactive extra vote for Gravity at the PGA, then we’re just as entitled to, at the same time, come up with an extra vote for it at the Oscars, which could very well tie it with 12 Years a Slave there, and have it win on tie-breaks (we KNOW it was close, and we KNOW ties can happen – in fact it may have BEEN a tie IN REALITY, since the Academy said there would be tie-breaks in case of a tie, to give a single winner, and they don’t release the totals). Not to mention I could just add two votes for it, and have it win WITHOUT tie-breaks or the need for there to have been a tie in the first place.

You can’t just change history for the sake of an argument, and say “if this had happened, then this would have resulted”, because that one change can cause other changes. You don’t KNOW that if this had happened, this ALSO would have happened. You can’t even prove it’s likely. What if said voter is also an Academy member and votes on the Oscars too? What if he has a friend who is unsure what to pick between American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave, and who, when he finds out his friend is voting for Gravity, a movie he hates and thinks is overrated, he decides to go with 12 Years (even though he might have, for whatever reason, picked AH otherwise), because he knows it’s Gravity’s main opponent – so the PGA is a tie once more? Do I need to find more, equally plausible scenarios to prove this point? Do you think it would be hard?

The PGA’s 100% record for the period in question is there, and it’s undeniable. You can’t change it by making unfounded assumptions and building a precise scenario which helps you make your point, while ignoring all of those (equally likely ones) that do not.

“The 100% record is proven to be a tenuous one.”

See above.

“My point is that Birdman is more vulnerable than Boyhood to win Oscar BP, until Birdman wins DGA.”

Possibly. Like I’ve said before, it’s very hard to make any definitive statements mid-guilds… If you ask me, you shouldn’t be trying.

“The reason that I think Birdman edges Boyhood at the PGA is perhaps due to its production scope.”

All I was hearing BEFORE the PGA was that Boyhood was such an unprecedented achievement in production, with its 12 years thing…

“And the preferential ballot. Yes, PGA is the only one voting implements this along with the Oscars. But we have to take into considerations that their choices are not identical as the Oscars, especially this year with 3 out of 10 movies in the PGA list is not on the Oscar ballot, who has only 8 films.”

You can’t be serious! 7 of those 8 are PGA nominees. It’s not the PGA’s fault the systems are different, and yield different numbers. If there were 10 and 10, and you had only 7 overlapping, then you’d have some kind of an argument here – not so, though.

“While the 12 years thing is impressive, Boyhood still looks like a movie that was shot in Linklater’s backyard.”

Which, I guess, the Oscars, who just love crappy production values (you said it, not me… OK, let’s say “average” – give me an example of a BP winner with average production values for its time), won’t care about – but the PGA did. Is that what you’re saying?

“There has never been any movie with that kind of topic and style that ever won”

Maybe not at the same time, but that’s way too specific. See also JP’s comment: “One film with Boyhood style doesn’t even exist.”

“Boyhood’s doesn’t really have a distinctive “style”.”

Well, now you’re just wrong. Simply because you’ve seen too many Linklater movies, it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a style. Had I not known in advance, I could have told you it was a Linklater within the first 10-20 minutes, possibly less. The biological dad is just a classic Linklater character (and I’m not just talking about his dialogue). Directing is not all “camera movement” and similar things – what actors to cast, how they say their lines, the background chosen, etc..

Robert A. has addressed some of the other issues very well, so I won’t reiterate.

I hated Birdman. That’s all.

I HATED Birdman. I thought it was utterly pretentious, and I loathed everyone in it, and the way it was made was just gimmicky and irritating. It seemed like a movie made for actors, and only actors, to enjoy — that “aren’t we crazy, and self-absorbed, but actually enlightened geniuses whom no one really understands, but what we do is more important than anything else in the world, and no one really gets us but that’s because they are all blind and living the lives of sheep” thing.

But I appreciate that these are VERY subjective responses, and normally it bugs me when people dislike movies just because they dislike the characters in them. So I am prepared to accept that it was “just not my thing”. But I would be totally annoyed if it won BP. I’d vote for it 7th out of 8, only because the vile American Sniper would have to be in position #8, or lower if possible …

The editing chalice is easily explained this year. Birdman was apparently shot in sequence and edited within a few weeks. It’s not an editor’s movie. It may not win but it perhaps explains why the ribbon cutters didn’t nominate it.

No matter what happens, a trend is going to have to be broken this year. If anything other than Birdman wins Best Picture, then the 7 year PGA trend will be broken. If Birdman wins, then the 35 year Editing Nomination trend will be broken. It’s a different sort of year, that’s for sure.

Now, I think Boyhood was (extra)ordinary because it took 12 years to make and the filming of it was unique. Patricia Arquette was excellent. Ethan Hawke was excellent. Im glad this little gem of a movie was nominated for 6 Oscars.

Having said that, I dont think its as superb in its execution as it is in concept. And even though it received stunning reviews … So did Birdman.

I am surprised that anyone would have a problem with Birdman possibly winning Best Picture, particularly because it also received such great reviews. Maybe it didn’t get Boyhood’s cabalcade of A+-type of critiques, but its an A movie with A reviews for the most part. And if it were to win, it would be right up there with Oscars higher-rated Best Picture winners by critics.

As for Birdman not affecting people as much as or in the same way as Boyhood, well, yeah, they’re 2 completely different types of movies. Boyhood is homegrown and a labor of love/passion project about a boy growing up and his mother who does the best she can as a single mom. Birdman offers bravura filmmaking, exceptional performances, and has a lot to say about actors/actresses, acting, art, loneliness, identity, failure, re-invention, resurrection, and the notion of being relevant in a social media-driven society. It entertained me and it moved me. It has moved many.

Boyhood moved me, too. Moved me to near-tears several times throughout. But its not right to say things like Birdman is not in the same realm of excellence or meaningfulness as Boyhood. Two completely different movies with different themes being addressed and executed. And I echo someone who wrote above (or elsewhere) that we should be ecstatic that the PGA (and hopefully the Academy) is rewarding smaller, less mainstreamy movies LIKE Birdman and Boyhood and such. We should be happy for all of the nominations and guild support and accolades spread across the industry for these 2 movies and others.

The Season is unpredictable at this point, still. Boyhood may very well win Best Picture still. maybe its Birdman, now. Who knows what the SAG, DGA, and BAFTA will tell us. But in any case, Im happy that great films are receiving accolades.

Birdman isn’t the film I thought would upset Boyhood at the PGAs, but I don’t think this is the end of the line for Boyhood, even if Birdman wins the SAG Ensemble, which I think it will (TGBH is a possible spoiler there, and I’ve never thought Boyhood stands a chance at SAG).

6,000+ producers can’t see themselves making Boyhood – they can see themselves making Birdman. To me, it’s that simple.

If Linklater takes the DGA, we have ourselves a good race again.

” and if Inarritu wins Best Director that will make the fifth straight year Best Director went to a foreign born director. We’re not doing a very good job fortifying our homegrown talent, industry, not at all.”

What does that have to do with anything?

It’s called Best Director, not Best AMERICAN director.

Fargo film – female lead – swept by The English Patient.

Fargo TV – male lead – virtually sweeps, taking Emmys, Globes, Critics Choice and PGA.

Not really a fair comparison, given that the TV Fargo is “sweeping” the much-thinner miniseries categories at these various awards shows.

There are two issues that are not being discussed here, and two issues that Sasha and/or Ryan should explore:
1. The Lego Movie and Life Itself both won at PGA, but neither was even nominated for Oscars. Curious.
2. We anticipate this year’s upcoming events, but we need to look to next year. The Revenant, even though still in production, will surely be nominated for Best Pictire, along with Inarritu for Best Director and Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor, both of whom could conceivably win. Does the Academy want Inarritu to win two years in a row? And DiCaprio, like Julianne Moore, is “overdue” for a “career” win. (His main competition could be Michael Fassbender for Macbeth, and his co-star, Marion Cotillard, will also probably get a Best Actress nomination. It has often been said that the best way to get a nomination is to already have one. And , let’s face it, the nominations are often about “roles” rather than “acting.”)
Of the other comments,the ones that have struck me the most are those concerning film history’s “placement” of Boyhood and Birdman. While both will be remembered as important 2014 films, the observation that Birdman will be How Green Was My Valley to Boyhood’s Citizen Kane keeps resonating.
The race — and let’s not kid ourselves, it is actually a political campaign that has a lot to do with emotions and little to do with aesthetics — has just gotten more interesting — and frustrating.

Even though my attention was divided, I didn’t take this news well last night.

This morning I unsettlingly woke up and saw it in a different light.

“BOYHOOD just isn’t the kind of movie that wins Best Picture, you dummy! Y’all were delusional about this one all along!”, said the taunting voice in my head. I recognized the scumbag the moment he opened his mouth.

“Sure, I guess. It’d be nice though — however — as “overdue”, acknowledgedly brilliant, and likeable as Linklater is, this movie just lacks certain traits of masculinity and Duvall/Eastwood-brigade old school stoicism that were all fulfilled by the boatloads by something like NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, also lacks the relevance, “importance”, and historic significance of something like 12 YEARS A SLAVE or THE HURT LOCKER”, I told that little imbecile of a truth teller.

“Uhh…right. What’s that all about though?”, replied exasperated the nightmarish January visitor.

“Just me thinking back to times when truly great movies won Best Picture. It doesn’t happen that often, but when it happens it must be for admittedly interesting reasons that I personally don’t care a great deal about, but that do go on to satisfy certain taste requirement or widespread notion of what a ‘Best Picture’ ought to be like in the eyes of these people. I suppose not everything’ is said and done, but it appears BOYHOOD might barely be on the outside of that compact realm.”, spaced out, I stopped mumbling, realized I was again alone in bed and resumed sleeping for a few more hours.

Woke up again with peace of mind.

“I should stop postponing attending Mass.”

“wtf is boyman?”

It’s a portmanteau of BOYHOOD and BIRDMAN. It’s pretty much a disparaging term on Awards Daily for all movies this Oscar season feature white people.

And the preferential ballot. Yes, PGA is the only one voting implements this along with the Oscars. But we have to take into considerations that their choices are not identical as the Oscars, especially this year with 3 out of 10 movies in the PGA list is not on the Oscar ballot, who has only 8 films. PGA this year serves as a gauge more than a crystal ball.

Robert,

I know that Globes and BFCA are not industry people. And I agree and stated that Birdman is competitive because of this result. And yes, PGA is 100% since the preferential ballot thing, but as I pointed out, had Gravity’s *one* ballot ranked it higher, it wouldn’t have that 100% record. The 100% record is proven to be a tenuous one. My point is that Birdman is more vulnerable than Boyhood to win Oscar BP, until Birdman wins DGA.

“Birdman is a movie you feel.” No I’m really tired of that explanation given to every winner. Birdman is a movie you admire, it’s a technical achievement. It’s not a heartstrings movie at all. It’s not an upbeat heart-warming movie at all. Not saying this as a defense of Birdman–I prefer Boyhood–but saying “it’s a movie you feel” is just an inaccurate interpretation.

“But Birdman is more vulnerable. It got beaten by Grand Hotel Budapest (of all things) at the Globes and Boyhood at the BFCA.”

True, but Globe voters and BFCA voters aren’t part of the industry–the Academy voters and the guild voters. PGA is the first we’ve heard from one of the guilds, and the surprise winner was Birdman. SAG results will give us a view into another guild, so if Birdman wins SAG Ensemble, it shows us…what, exactly? That Birdman is more competitive with the guilds than people were anticipating.

“And while PGA has “guessed” correctly of the BP winners (last year’s tie notwithstanding) in the past 8 years, it did “misguess” three consecutive years before that. Its guessing record is 70% in its 24 year existence. DGA has a 75% rate during this period.”

Yes, but those “misguess” years for PGA were years where PGA wasn’t using the preferential ballot. Since PGA started using a preferential ballot–the same that AMPAS uses for BP–the PGA winners have matched 100% with the Oscar BP winners. Of course, PGA only started using the preferential ballot a few years ago (2009?)…a 100% accuracy rate would look more impressive over 30 years than over only five years. And eventually a PGA result will veer away from the Oscar result, even if they both do use the preferential ballot. Is this the year? Birdman’s PGA win does show us its competitive in a preferential voting situation–maybe the movie isn’t as polarizing as the detractors were saying?–but I’m not giving up on Boyhood until we hear from DGA, which I still anticipate will go to Linklater.

This is to be seen in line with PGA picking Little Miss Sunshine. Birdman is definitely not the frontrunner; it only would be if Inarritu won the DGA. What this strengthens is Michael Keaton, and what it weakens is GBH and Imitation Game, because this would have been the place where those could have stepped in. I think GBH is likely to win SAG ensemble. Anyhow, everything’s on track to finish just like we would have predicted two months ago.

I am hoping for yet another upset! GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL WINS ENSEMBLE! EMMA STONE WINS SUPPORTING ACTRESS! EDDIE REDMAYNE WINS ACTOR! That would have been cool, really.

I still think Boyhood takes it. This might make it easier to win Oscar predicting pools because people will be jumping off the seemingly sinking ship (Boyhood) just like with Gravity last year. A movie hasn’t won Best Picture without an editing nom since 1980, right?

We don’t know how close this is. Birdman can lose best picture just like Gravity did.
I’m really sorry this happened because I think Boyhood’s the best, and I’d rather have what I think is the superior film winning than have a
race for the sake of a race. Did the people who wanted the “exciting race” want it when King’s Speech overtook Social Network? We have close races in Makeup, Costumes, Score, and two or three other categories. This one should be Boyhood and Linklater’s. It kinda p’s me off that Linklater could lose this because the groups have such a love affair for the foreign directors. If you can’t get DGA for what Linklater did, then f it. Seriously. I know “the trick is not minding,” but I am kinda irritated right now.
One more thought–I’m glad Life Itself and Lego Movie won even though they were snubbed by Oscars. I hope Flynn continues to get rewarded and isn’t snubbed because groups want to stand proudly along with Oscar. *eyeroll*

corvu. what indeed?

Given the fantasy world Hollywood passes off as regular middle class life, destructively, yeah Boyhood is very progressive. If the family in Boyhood is middle class, then the American middle class is made up of struggling single moms, almost completely dependent on public education….. which it largely is, I guess.

You prefer glorification of the inner life of pampered old white actors? BM’s a way better choice than The Artist and Argo at least.

After having seen all 8 nominees for Best Picture, I would divide them in two cathegories… “Worthy of a Best Picture win” (Boyhood, Grand Budapest Hotel, Selma & The Imitation Game) and “Unworthy of the Best Picture nomination” (Birdman, Whiplash, The Theory of Everything and American Sniper). A pity, the awards seem to go either to ONE deserving film (Boyhood) or the alternatives undeserving ones (Birdman & American Sniper).

At this point, I’m all for Selma upsetting everyone and taking Best Picture, while it loses best song to “The Lego Movie”. That would be, all kinds of awesome.

“take aside the risk they took by producing a film for such a long time and you got an Indie that wouldn’t have gotten a Best Pic nom to start.”

Stealing the words I read in a review, “Would’nt it like saying that the Elephant is the biggest animal at the zoo because it’s and Elephant?”
As for the people who say that the story is bland and boring, the fact that it was shot over 12 years, while it has some, advantages—Linklater himself recognized this in an interview—, has some impracticalities, one of them its that it makes pretty hard and risky to tell a story in a conventional way.

“The story is so bland and such Oscar Bait, take aside the risk they took by producing a film for such a long time and you got an Indie that wouldn’t have gotten a Best Pic nom to start.”

Well… It is so Oscar bait that virtually nobody was talking about its Oscars prospects when it premiered in Sundance. Things started to turn their way to the Dolby Theater when critics gave it an unprecendant reaction. I don’t know If Birdman is Oscar bait. I don’t think Inarritu was thinking “Oh… This will win the Oscar” but the fact is I have been making an year-in-advance prediction in the week of the Oscar nominations. In 2012, I got four contenders predicted as BP nominees one year early solely based on their profile: top 3 contenders Argo, Lincoln and Life of Pi plus Lés Mis, In 2013, I got the exactly 5 films that scored Best Directing nominations. In 2014, I scored only one and it’s Birdman. Anyone who looked at its profile one year ago would have predicted its nomination. Very few would do the same with Boyhood.

Thanks, Paddy Mulholland, for some perspective and context. ”Boyhood” suddenly loses its first major movie award, after winning so many others, and the sky is falling. I trust the PGA voted with its hearts and not just because it was time to stir things up because the race was getting ”boring.” … ”Grand Budapest Hotel” upset ”Birdman” at the Globes. ”Birdman” upset ”Boyhood” at the PGA. Is the stage set for another upset tonight at SAG? Where ”Birdman” has the decided edge (having won the Ensemble prize from the Critics Choice and N.Y. Film Critics Online). I also think I read that ”Birdman” sent screeners to SAG members; ”Grand Budapest” did not. That certainly helps not just Keaton, but Norton and Stone. Could there be a SAG sweep?

Well, that was exciting, and I’m not even in the Birdman camp. Birdman’s third act didn’t work for me, but at least the film had a passion to do something different- overall, it’s extremely well crafted, even if it didn’t gel for me. It’s not in my Top 10, but it’d be a far more interesting win then Imitation Game or American Sniper in my book. That said, I still think it’s superior to Boyhood, which is a very ‘meh’ film to me. (Boyhood, American Sniper, and Theory of Everything are not remotely deserving of a Best Picture nomination to me.). Comparatively, I’d vote for Grand Budapest Hotel or Whiplash if I had a ballot. Those are by far the two best nominees out of the 8- for me. But alas- this is why it’s a subjective game- which I actually love about it.

Right, Bob. The Linklater movie about that younger middle class white guy is so much more progressive…

Birdman still paying 16-1 with British bookmakers. I dig those odds.

Always the same strategy here. Pretending to love something you really hate. Sasha did that last year with Gravity. This is Birdman’s time.

BIRDMAN <3 I'm so fucking happy that boring Boyhood can actually loose this.

no shit! this is awful news, dammit! boyhood peeps better step up the campaigning

I’m with Elton here. I admire both films, and mostly Birdman for its technical marvels. Still, what resonates with me emotionally is Boyhood.
What remains to be seen is what the Academy voters think, it seems. I have a hunch it’ll be Boyhood, but who knows really? Both are BP-worthy.

Look, I respect Boyhood for what it is. BUT….there is no story. There’s no villain. There’s no one to root for. It simply is what it is. It’s a gimmick film like The Artist. If these 12 years had been released every year as 12 short films, would anyone be banging the drum as to its greatness? No. Now, I’m coming at this as someone that is not a parent so I don’t know what it’s like to watch your kid grow up and leave home. To me, Birdman was the superior film. The editing and narrative to make it seem like one long shot was excellent. Plus this is a film about actors and Hollywood loves to celebrate their own. Everyone loves a story of redemption. I’m totally happy with Birdman winning the PGA and “critical darling” Boyhood getting left behind. But then I was all about Crash over Brokeback. (I’m gay and I didn’t get all the praise it was getting!)

It is a surprise to me that ‘Birdman’ took the PGA. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is the frontrunner for the Oscar. I remember ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ won the PGA, but ‘The Departed’ won the Oscar…and the DGA. The DGA tends to be the most reliable indicator of who is likely to take the Oscar. But this race sure is taking some sudden turns down the home stretch. The more unpredictable the Oscars become, the more exciting it is.

With all due respect to the effort and care that went into making Boyhood, I don’t think its losing Best Picture would tarnish the legacy of whatever film beats it. This isn’t Crash and Brokeback.

Well, this was inexpected! I thought Boyhood would win, but I felt the only possible upsets would come from either The Imitation Game or The Grand Budapest Hotel. I didn’t even consider Birdman as a possible spoiler, but now I’m so glad it did spoil since it’s my favorite film of the year. Now it’s down to the SAG: if Birdman wins Best Ensemble, then the race is definitely on. If it doesn’t, the PGA win will simply be a false positive, with Boyhood back as the clear frontrunner.

To the person who complains every year that there aren’t enough surprises, please knock that shit off

““Emotional winners aren’t good winners for the long haul.”
But Boyhood is very emotional, too – or have I seen a different movie?”

Yeah, exactly.

“Emotional winners aren’t good winners for the long haul.”
But Boyhood is very emotional, too – or have I seen a different movie?

I’ve written this before in other posts, but from my Canadian perspective, I actually think it’s a good sign that the Oscars keeps awarding all these foreign-born directors. First and foremost, nationality aside, they were all WORTHY winners. Cuaron and Lee are two of the best and most original filmmakers of the last 20 years. The jury is still out on whether Hazanavicius can follow up his masterpiece with more impressive work, yet even if he doesn’t, that doesn’t detract from the fact that he directed the best film of 2011 (at worst, he’s a worthy one-hit wonder like Michael Cimino). I like Hooper more than most, and he’s yet to make anything less than a very good film — Damned United, King’s Speech and Les Miserables is a hell of a triple act.

If Innaritu wins this year and keeps the foreign-born director streak going, then good for him, since he directed a great movie. If Linklater wins and brings Best Director back to the USA, then good for him, he also directed a great movie.

“Birdman is a worthy winner, but no more worthy than The Imitation Game.”
Imitation Game would be the worst winner since A Beautiful Mind, which is fitting since both were generic, by-the-numbers biopics about unheralded geniuses. Birdman, however, is a legitimately great movie and would be the ONLY one of the other seven that I would deem to be an acceptable Best Picture winner over Boyhood.

Contrary to what others have reduced 2014 to, i think there are some great films in competition this year, and i don’t see a shonky choice on the way. But as I said on the other thread, it is still early – well mid race, and it’s not apparent yet who the real rivals are, and who will be the also rans.

I like your logic for 2014, JP, but for me anyway, in contradicts the battles of recent years – The King’s Speech and The Social Network (a more enduring narrative); Artist -v- Hugo (the former a sketchy romp compared to the beauty and legacy of film as depicted in the latter). Argo -v- Life of Pi (cutting edge techs and a sublime/spiritual narrative). Maybe AMPAS are just looking for Mr Right Now, rather than Mr Right.

“Birdman is a highlight in 2014. Boyhood is a highlight in film history. That is the difference.”

If that’s so, then it will have its place in history and will be honored enough. So, let Birdman have its moment! 🙂

Birdman is a highlight in 2014. Boyhood is a highlight in film history. That is the difference.

Daveinprogress. I believe one thing for sure, Boyhood is the right choice for Best Picture at the Oscars. It’s like you said, “Boyhood is such a beautiful rite of passage. Boyhood is a more important film”. I think it stands out a little more than the rest of them, if you’re paying proper attention.
After that, I think Selma should win because of it’s relevancy to the times we are living in, followed by The Grand Budapest Hotel, because I feel that one had the best overall production as a film.

I think Boyhood might have lost the PGA because it’s way TOO INDIE. Hell, Little Miss Sunshine was a small little indie film, but Boyhood felt two times smaller than that. Can’t wait to see who comes out on top at DGA, but having to wait two weeks…God, that’s torture.

If any movie could’ve beat Boyhood and still left me satisfied it would be Birdman. What a remarkable film. But still, Boyhood is not only remarkable, it’s eternal. And I think the Academy will realize that in the end. No matter how masterful Gravity was, they still saw that 12 Years a Slave was the Schindlers List of slaver films. The definitive movie about it’s subject which is one so vital in examining Americas history. That alone makes it important and a truly worthy Best Picture winner. Birdman is great, but it doesn’t share that quality that Boyhood does with Slave. Something so monumental in itself that it can’t be ignored. And I don’t think it will be

I still don’t see any film other than Boyhood taking the big prize Oscar night, and I say that as one of the few people who don’t even have Boyhood ranked in the top three of the Academy’s BP list (Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Whiplash for me).

Tonight was surprising, but everybody will come back down to Earth when Linklater wins in two weeks. That’s my prediction.

I’m sitting here with that sinking feeling. Birdman simply did not resonate with me. It may in time, but this year I feel so strongly about Boyhood. I know, that’s emotion. But I believe it to be a timeless film; rendered with brilliance and subtlety. Like you say, Sasha, it’s a film that doesn’t come around very often. We’ll shall see what happens.

As I wrote in the other post…

Considering that 7 of the 8 nominees are about noble, heroes or big dreamers men, some of them suffering injustice and Great losses, all of them defying odds it is not a surprise to see backlash coming against the only film that is about an ordinary man and his family. Since the trio of psycopaths (Gone Girl, Nightcrawler and Foxcatcher) has been denied an invitation to the party, it may be the time for the ordinary man to follow. But history won’t forgive this mistake if if happens. Anything that beats Boyhood will be remembered as the film that upset the unique critical darling Sundance-entry that took 12 years to make. Boyhood Will never be remembered as the film that beat Birdman, Budapest Hotel Pr Imitation Game. If it loses, Just bad for the Academy. The probable only thing I would praise this season was the critics conducting their fave as the winner in the industry awards. If even that does not happen, it would be a year to forget. A year in which the Academy relevance reached a very huge low point.

Hi Sasha,

I’m just curious as to what you meant by, “We’re not doing a very good job fortifying our homegrown talent, industry, not at all.” Were you not thumping for the London born Steve McQueen last year? Just curious. It’s interesting to me that people were so adamant last year about seeing McQueen become the first black director to win an Oscar, but I feel like Cuarón didn’t get nearly the same attention for becoming the first Mexican director to take the prize. Maybe I just take it slightly more personally seeing as how I am Mexican, but I’m very proud to see these talented hispanic directors getting the recognition they deserve.