How the Globes can Influence the Oscar Race

The Golden Globes are the second most-watched awards show behind the Oscars. One of the reasons the Academy wanted to separate themselves from the Globes (by closing their ballot before the Globes aired) is that the concern that some people might not want to watch the Oscars after watching the Globes. In doing so, the Academy subverts the one and only thing good thing the precursors can do: give Oscar voters the time to reconsider their options and/or to become better aware of movies they might have otherwise skipped. The window for the ballot phase for Academy voters this year was ridiculously brief. December 29 through January 8th. The tightest squeeze imaginable. If you hadn’t seen a movie because you didn’t get a screener? Tough luck for that movie.

The Globes can’t influence the nominees — for instance, if Selma won, no amount of momentum could help it get into the Oscar race. But it can influence the winners. It can set in motion a chain of events that may or may not greatly impact the Oscar race. This often occures if an underdog wins at the Globes and they knock their speech out of the park. I would say 85% of the reason someone gets a vote is that they are liked, people are rooting for them. If their win doesn’t feel great, if they don’t act appreciative enough, if they act entitled or casual or indifferent, very few contenders are beloved enough to overcome the bad PR that comes with the wrong winning attitude. The Coen brothers are two notable exceptions. There are others. But the majority of wins during the awards race happen because people like to see people win when those wins MEAN SOMETHING.

Winning because something is deserved can sometimes transcend the PR but not often. The last perfect combination I can think of was Danny Boyle and Slumdog Millionaire. Not only was Boyle grateful, humble and enthusiastic about his win but his film was a film voters rooted for because it was about rescuing impoverished kids of Mumbai: double whammy = unstoppable.

Another was Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Again, the extraordinary nature of seeing her win felt so good people liked watching the same shit go on just to see a woman finally win something so significant and groundbreaking. When Jim Cameron won double at the Globes for Avatar and Bigelow didn’t you could feel the air being sucked out of the room, even for those of us watching at home. Where was the brain kick? Where was the feelgood? It was just watching a guy no one particularly likes whose movie is the highest grossing film of all time collecting yet another gold statue. No one cared. That boosted Bigelow’s chances (and she would have won regardless).

Another big Globes moment was Kate Winslet winning in two categories in 2008, when she took Best Actress prize for Revolutionary Road, with an Best Supporting awaard for The Reader. No one is as humble and grateful as Winslet. Seeing her win finally was too much to bear. It felt like a Charles Dickens Christmas.

Tomorrow night’s show could produce a few of these Charles Dickens’ Christmas moments. One such win would be Jennifer Aniston for Cake. Aniston is SO written off as a serious actress that a win there might actually really bring on the water works. For some reason, I think Benedict Cumberbatch would also be a grateful winner. Needless to say, if Ava Duvernay wins Best Director or Selma wins Best Picture it will bring the house down but there’s still no guarantee the film got in for Best Picture with the Academy. I would say that a Globes win coupled with an Academy nomination could do some major damage to the race.

Here and only here could Boyhood face some problems. Though I think the film is extraordinary and stands on its own, Linklater is so laid back and casually accustomed to winning he might not give Globes audiences what they’re looking for in a feelgood moment. Then again, he might. I know, how gross, right? Yes, it’s gross. But it’s also human nature.

We nobodies out here in the dark live vicariously through the winners. Everyone wants to be a winner so we watch our kings and queens take the stage to win something. We want those wins to feel good. We want winning to feel good. We’re a culture based on it. Therefore, an awards win should never be looked upon as something given on merit. It’s more a celebration of the notion of winning. It comes with a price tag, both literally and figuratively. `If you want to win, if you want them to like you, to really really like you, you have to work that moment. Just saying.

The Golden Globes happen Sunday night. Up next, our annual Golden Globes haiku.