The interesting thing about 2015’s Oscar race is that none of it is really going as planned. Though we always try to caution that late breaking movies simply can’t scramble back from whatever controversy hits them in time to really launch a win, the same story happens every year because the Academy’s voting window is so short, and everything happens really early and really fast. People assume there will be time. There is no time. Thus, here we are once again focusing on the movies that came out early in the year – Birdman (Venice film fest) and Boyhood (Sundance film fest). You could throw in Grand Budapest and The Imitation Game too – both are early. American Sniper is the film that could have really stolen the whole game if two things had not happened. 1) Clint Eastwood had been nominated for an Oscar for Best Director, and 2) if the film had not been hit so hard with a post-release controversy where the extreme right wingers appropriated it and called it their own.
The right wing association might have dimmed Sniper’s sex appeal to a giant consensus mostly made up of good-doer lefties who abhor what the extreme right stands for: no control, an imagined conspiracy that the President wants to take the guns, a flimsy justification to get into the war in Iraq, that Americans are born entitled to take whatever they want, whenever they want, from whomever they want – to destroy the planet if they so choose all in the name of the almighty dollar. There is no way lefty voters are going to stand behind a movie that the right wingers have used to justify their entitlement both internationally and domestically: god, guns, war.
The movie itself does none of this, of course. Its biggest crime is that it makes a hero of a questionable character who in real life said some pretty awful things. When you listen to Chris Kyle’s articulate wife talk about his sniper shooting in Iraq she says it was about saving American lives, that he did away with the evil coming towards him. That is straight out of the George W. Bush handbook in how Americans were supposed to view all Iraqis during the (still ongoing) war. The film shows how Kyle suffered from shooting all of those people but it does not show that the real Chris Kyle admits to having had “the time of his life” doing it.
Selma’s controversy was a non-controversy – and so much smaller. Yet Selma’s enemies had friends in high places ensuring that voters who at last did get their screeners might not even bother watching a film they’d heard doesn’t tell the truth about Lyndon B. Johnson. For a thorough reading on this, see Mark Harris’ exceptional piece, How Selma Got Smeared.
Sniper will not suffer the same fate as its box office will likely win 2014’s. With a few more weeks to go before ballots are turned in Sniper could, like Selma has, turn the controversy around, especially since film critics continue to stand behind the film. But there is no time. Thus, 2015’s Oscar race will likely be decided the same way every race is decided now since Oscar pushed its date back a month: only films that come out around or during Telluride/Toronto have a shot at the win.
The other thing that happened was that most of the films people had earmarked for the race did not hit their mark – not Unbroken nor Interstellar nor Into the Woods — and my own personal disappointments, Gone Girl, Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler. That all of these films were shunted aside for a mostly safe and definitely “indie” lineup is what has resulted in a very surprising series of awards wins.
If Richard Linklater wins the DGA, which he should, then you are still possibly looking at a split between Birdman and Boyood (though if Linklater wins the DGA I’ll stick with Boyhood for the BP win). Boyhood’s editing win seems to still put it where The Social Network’s wins were: Globes, Critics Choice, losing PGA and SAG, winning Eddie, losing Best Picture. But Birdman isn’t The King’s Speech, which also won Best Actor at SAG. In this scenario, the DGA decides.
The thing to note that is significant is that Boyhood earned its first big guild win. For the little movie that could, that’s a pretty big deal. It isn’t The Social Network – it isn’t a big studio movie that is a bleak and dark look at humanity, technology and the modern world. It’s a sentimental, deeply moving film about mostly nice and loving people. Of the two, Birdman is more like The Social Network than Boyhood. Both films are beloved for different reasons. Splitting their vote would not be a bad way to go.
While the supporting categories seem mostly sewn up – I’d bet the farm on JK Simmons, Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore winning. Best Actor seems like it’s Redmayne’s to lose but for some reason I feel like that’s still a wide open category.
Best Picture and Best Director are open. It could go either way — the DGA may or may not decide. In a season like this one you have to simply rely mostly on gut instinct. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Stats might not help you out, though. Birdman’s win would be unprecedented because it will become only the second comedy at the Golden Globes to lose there and go on to win Best Picture. Annie Hall is the only film that ever has. It will also become the first film in 30 years to win without an editing nomination. It’s not impossible but surely it will need the DGA to take the whole thing home.
You readers certainly had it right:
Which film will win Best Picture?
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
“Sasha as far as you can tell, is the buzz still Boyhood for BP? Serious question”
That’s what I’d like to know, as well…
Anyway, I do feel like it’s 95% sure one of the two will win the BAFTA (I just don’t think the Brit biopics are well thought of enough to be given the win, even there), so we’ll likely know then, more or less.
As much as I love Birdman, I still think Boyhood wins BP. I just think it’s silly to deny Birdman is a serious chance, and the only chance, of an upset.
I’m just excited that it could be the first year since American Beauty, that my favorite film won Best Picture.
Sasha as far as you can tell, is the buzz still Boyhood for BP? Serious question
🙂 OK, Andrew… Maybe you’re right. I’m not the one who’s gonna make a fool of themselves if they’re wrong, though, as I’ve been keeping an open mind to both possibilities, unlike the “no editing nom = no BP” crowd (who probably also thought all of Argo, Driving Miss Daisy and Titanic’s precursor wins were meaningless, as they had also been snubbed for directing/screenplay, which are equally important snubs)…
As for the globe loss, the logical correlation for that stat is weak to non-existent – there are no fewer than 8 (EIGHT) years, since 1963, in which the winner in that category wasn’t even a BP nominee BUT beat out other BP nominees. So, saying Birdman losing here means it has less of a chance to win BP, it’s like saying those movies losing in that category means they had less of a chance of winning BP than a movie that wasn’t even nominated, which is obviously wrong. You can twist it any way you want, but the fact is that to make assumptions based on a stat that has no actual logical basis (since so many of their winners clearly and demonstrably have NOTHING to do with those movies’ chances of winning BP) is shaky at best, and dead wrong at worst. (And I was the first one to do it this year, with the comedy Globe loss stat – which I brought up long before Sasha did, at least as far as this year is concerned -, I’ll admit it, but I wasn’t trying to be very thorough/precise at the time, as I knew it wasn’t crucial to get it right then – I didn’t with Argo either, but I got it right when it mattered -, I knew I’d have to get it right BY THE END, and, when I brought up that stat, I was just looking for as many clues as possible at the time, not for definitive arguments).
Not to mention that, even if you somehow decide that stat is valid, in spite of the very questionable logic it’s based on, you still have to deal with the fact that Birdman is less of a comedy than all of the other nominees, and than at least 80% of all nominees ever in that category (excluding the musicals, of course, although even many of those were probably more comedic than Birdman), I’d venture (so it was never, in fact, a likely winner – as long as the voters cared at all about what was actually the best comedy, and, since they’re a very serious critics’ organisation, and not a huge body of voters with all kinds of different backgrounds/skills, I think they probably did), AND with the fact that the Globes very much like to spread the wealth (the pundits agree on this point, it seems – but not about the SAG, for example), which Budapest’s win could be a factor of as well…
Claudiu, you have hit the nail on the head: anything Boyhood wins is confirmation its winning BP. Anything Birdman wins is meaningless as no golden globe or best editing nom.
“Every actor I have ever known (and I’ve known a lot) LOVES to buy into the idea that actors are crazy geniuses living some kind of pure, individual artistic life that the rest of us sad ordinary people, who lead the lives of sheep, can barely understand.”
HA! Love this, Scott. Have to agree from experience, too. There are only two professions that require this amount of public applause – actors and politicians. That actors get the applause after they do their job instead of before, like politicians, does put them in a better class. Skills are 100% transferable between the two.
Well, technically, since it’s preferential, I guess we’re talking about inital no.1’s with those 21%, 30%, 25% etc. – but that’s not quite relevant, as that first round is hardly decisive. It’s the percentage of higher placings among the two finalists (which we’ll presume, for now, for the sake of simplicity, are Birdman and Boyhood) – therefore, I will adjust my example to say that a difference as small as 8% (meaning 54% Birdman, 46% Boyhood, which sounds very plausible, by the way) would already be a quite significant indicator of Birdman being the (not big) favorite at the Oscars. Even 53-47 is pretty strong.
“so the Birdman win at SAG and the PGA is far from clearly indicating that the Academy membership have spoken and have endorsed Birdman.”
Clearly, nobody is contesting this. And, like Ryan and others have suggested, I too expect it was probably at least reasonably close. Possibly very close. But there’s no actual evidence to suggest it was extremely close either. And, even if it was merely something like 4-5% (say, 30% to 25%), that’s still pretty significant as far as Oscar chances go… We simply don’t know, though, and I don’t think it’s fair, or even particularly wise, to use assumptions about how close it was (like Alan does) to justify predicting Boyhood.
“However, I confess that I HATED Birdman, and found it utterly pretentious and irritating, and so my adverse reaction undoubtedly plays into a WISH that Birdman wins no Oscars, and leads therefore to a very subjective PREDICTION that Boyhood will triumph.”
I respect very much the fact that you would admit to this! 🙂 Many share your views, as we know, and maybe you’re not the only one whose prediction is influenced by this – but I’ve not seen many others admit to it yet… I too will admit I’m probably letting my love of Birdman sway me just a touch more in its direction than if I were a completely impartial observer (though one has to note I didn’t in any way hate Boyhood, and love it almost as much, in fact, though not quite, so I’ve not as much reason to be as influenced in my predictions as you are in yours). Anyway, that’s just now, pre-DGA and BAFTA. And ONLY because the stats are not very clear right now. They’re as muddled as they’ve ever been… Anyway, when those last major precursors (since the WGA again has ineligibility issues) will have passed, and I will have had a few days to analyze everything impartially, I’m quite certain whatever favorite I will come up with will be based exclusively on the stats (and how I interpret them), and have absolutely nothing to do with what I’d prefer won.
I think it is safe to assume that Birdman did not get 100% of the votes
correct me if I’m wrong, but Birdman could have won the SAG Ensemble award with 21% of the votes, yes? no?
@ Claudiu– “And I assume that even in both the SAG and PGA results, Boyhood was a strong second.”
Of course you do… 🙂 Of course you do…
Fair enough. 🙂 I guess my point is, however Boyhood placed in the SAG and PGA votes, I think it is safe to assume that Birdman did not get 100% of the votes, and that Boyhood got a healthy percentage (even if it didn’t come second), and so the Birdman win at SAG and the PGA is far from clearly indicating that the Academy membership have spoken and have endorsed Birdman. (All of this is speculation about what Sammy was referring to when he/she said the majority of the Academy went for Birdman — perhaps some other indicator was meant.)
Birdman is a quintessential actors film — everyone in it acts up a messy storm, scenery is chewed, digested and shat out, and the film is ABOUT actors, so it is no surprise that it appealed to SAG voters. Every actor I have ever known (and I’ve known a lot) LOVES to buy into the idea that actors are crazy geniuses living some kind of pure, individual artistic life that the rest of us sad ordinary people, who lead the lives of sheep, can barely understand. I’m not sure the 80% of the Academy who are not actors are so fond of this self-mythologizing.
However, I confess that I HATED Birdman, and found it utterly pretentious and irritating, and so my adverse reaction undoubtedly plays into a WISH that Birdman wins no Oscars, and leads therefore to a very subjective PREDICTION that Boyhood will triumph.
”AACTA includes members of AMPAS. Birdman swept big time- picture, director, actor, screenplay”
Uh, did you miss my earlier posting about AACTA? Their track record as an Academy predictor is horrendous. Last year, only 2 of their 7 AACTA winners went on to get the Oscar. And in 2013, only 3 of their 7 AACTA winners did so.
“And I assume that even in both the SAG and PGA results, Boyhood was a strong second.”
Of course you do… 🙂 Of course you do…
“Nomination is a chance for them to be inclusive, look generous and cool, and give little movies exposure.”
OK, so then why not nominate Selma, Interstellar, Guardians of the Galaxy, Into the Woods etc., instead of Boyhood? Those are far bigger productions. Don’t you see that you’re saying the PGA care so much about giving their wins to big productions (which you haven’t actually proven, anyway), yet, somehow, because it’s convenient to you, don’t care almost at all (Whiplash, Boyhood) when it comes to what they nominate? Even though it’s the same people…
“Moulin has the razzmatazz quality of eye and ear candy, a visual and audio feast, and is a bigger artistic risk than Beautiful Mind which is just a biopic of a scientist that has a more ordinary feel.”
A Beautiful Mind is also extremely impressive visually, not to mention the score. Anyway, look, you might have an argument here, though not as strong as you think you do, but for The Crying Game vs. Unforgiven you’re just trying to prove apples are oranges (see below). Which makes for AT LEAST 2 exceptions (that and The Departed) from your 6-7 examples, which, of course, is less than strong. Less accurate than even the pure “PGA+SAG = BP” stat…
Also, one thing you, of course, don’t take into account, is that all of those exceptions happened BEFORE the preferential ballot was re-introduced…
“it looks and feels like a movie that was shot in somebody’s back yard. ”
More so than The Crying Game? 🙂 That one has twice as few locations, none as impressive as the least impressive in Unforgiven… And that’s just one aspect.
“Unforgiven to me doesn’t look like a bigger budget movie and its scope is limited to a genre movie.”
We’ve clearly not seen the same Unforgiven.
“There are other factors such as the movie’s content like politics, message, history and big production values that separate two contenders.”
Do you not get how incredibly speculative you’re getting with all this? Then how does Moulin Rouge! fit into the same pattern? You’re just picking your arguments for each specific movie, and ignoring them for others… you can prove anything that way.
“First, the cost of the production quoted in Wikipedia or wherever else is not a reliable finding”
Fine, then prove to me with the CORRECT numbers (quoting sources and such) that Moulin Rouge! and The Crying Game cost more than A Beautiful Mind and Unforgiven! Burden of proof is now on you – at least I quoted SOME numbers, you’ve not quoted anything so far, reliable or otherwise.
“do we know how much of Unforgiven’s $14 million budget go toward the superstar and super director Clint Eastwood?”
Do we really think it’s more than $10 million, in order for it to be “cheaper” than The Crying Game?
“If The Crying Game was produced under the Hollywood studio, and starred someone with an equal marquee name as Eastwood, trust me it would not cost $3.6 mil.”
Again with the assumptions… It is what it is. Are you saying Boyhood is a gimmick because of the 12 years thing? 🙂 The Crying Game is what it is, it cost what it cost, and that’s what the producers voted for at the time, not what it would have cost had it been made in Hollywood.
“If you want to play that game, we can also say… just like LMS who won PGA and SAG, Birdman still lost to another frontrunner because Birdman, like LMS, did not have an editing nom.”
However, it also happens to have 5 (FIVE) more nominations than Little Miss Sunshine, who had 4 (who ever wins BP with 4 nominations?!) AND no Best Director nomination. THAT’S WHY it lost (and never could have won), a combination of all of those. You’re gonna tell me the two situations are even remotely comparable?
“AACTA includes members of AMPAS. Birdman swept big time- picture, director, actor, screenplay”
Apparently, everybody has somehow decided that wherever Birdman wins, it’s always very close, a few votes in it, and wherever Boyhood wins, it’s a landslide, “no contest”. Oh, and overlapping membership is not a valid argument in 2015, for some reason…
Sammy — You said “Majority of the Academy – they already went for Birdman !!”
How so?
The SAG and PGA guilds did, But Actors make up only about 20% of Academy voters, and Producers make up only about 8%. Also, SAG membership is very different from Academy actors membership. So how do even the SAG and PGA results show the majority of the Academy already went for Birdman? And I assume that even in both the SAG and PGA results, Boyhood was a strong second.
AACTA includes members of AMPAS. Birdman swept big time- picture, director, actor, screenplay
I am sticking to my position that I have held since always that Boyhood will win BP. I just think the majority of the Academy will want to recognize it, show their open-mindedness to a low budget movie in which nothing happens but Life Itself.
I just won’t go to American Sniper, so I honestly cannot judge it fairly, but given what I have read, it seems impossible that such a polarizing film, that mostly sounds like it would deeply bug the vast Hollywood moderate and liberal vote, will have enough support to win BP. Yes, it will get a core of strong support at #1 by people wanting to make a statement, but I can’t believe that for most others it would not be #8 or #7. It just cannot win on those numbers.
Alex,
I find Wes Anderson’s movies cloying and annoying and Budapest is no exception. The cinematic precision feels so academic and at incredibly odds with the quirkiness he’s trying to convey. I feel that he’s telling one unfunny joke after another.
But I have never thought of his movies (though I must confess I don’t see all of his movies as I’ve tried to avoid them) as racist, so I am very fascinated by your analysis. Them are fighting words and I love it! And, oh, you make persuasive points.
“OK, then, again: how come the PGA even nominated it? Whiplash, too, and that one they REALLY didn’t HAVE to nominate… Hmmm, guess that rule you guys just invented must not be a thing after all”
Who said anything about “rule”? Who said anything about “nomination”? We talked about WINNER. Movies that have zero chances of winning got nominated for Oscars and PGA or whatever awards all the time. Nomination is a chance for them to be inclusive, look generous and cool, and give little movies exposure. And it only takes 5% of #1 supporters to be nominated. To win you got to have a much bigger collective support. Does nominating committee voter in their right mind would think a movie like “Beasts of a Southern Wild” have a ghost of a chance at winning the BP at PGA and Oscars? A foreign language film like Amour? Do you mean that they would only nominate movies that have a chance at winning? That would reduce the list to 2 and 3 a year, not 10.
There’s a “type” and “flavor” of movies that a certain body of voters, as a whole, prefer to win. SAG likes their Ensemble to be big and comedic. Oscars to be important and emotional. PGA to be bigger production. There are always anomalies.
“Unforgiven – Budget $14.4 million — The Crying Game – Budget $3.6 million — The difference is even bigger than I thought! — The other BP nominees that year all had much bigger budgets than The Crying Game, but you ignore those as potential PGA winners… — Also: Moulin Rouge! – Budget $52 million — A Beautiful Mind – Budget $58 million”
The reason I brought up Boyhood’s miniscule production budget was to illustrate one of its smallness quality. It has other “smallness” qualities as well – it looks and feels like a movie that was shot in somebody’s back yard. The story of an ordinary family with no big huge political or social issues, etc.
The difference between a poodle and a German Shepherd is not restraint to budget. There are other factors such as the movie’s content like politics, message, history and big production values that separate two contenders.
Higher budget doesn’t automatically makes movie a shepherd compared to another movie. And your Wikipedia findings is silly at best. Having been in and have friends in the “business”, I will to enlighten you a few points about budget. First, the cost of the production quoted in Wikipedia or wherever else is not a reliable finding; they are published budget by the studios and production companies. Take them with a grain of salt. Even if they’re correct, do we know how much of Unforgiven’s $14 million budget go toward the superstar and super director Clint Eastwood? Furthermore, do you know that a movie produced under the Hollywood studio (as opposed to a smaller production company in England) would cost a lot more? Tinseltown’s vendors are not going give discount breaks to a studio movie directed by Clint Eastwood. Not to mention the Hollywood unions premium rates.
If The Crying Game was produced under the Hollywood studio, and starred someone with an equal marquee name as Eastwood, trust me it would not cost $3.6 mil., more like three times that amount easily. The result look and feel of The Crying Game, a movie about large issues like IRA foot soldiers, politics giving it huge gravitas is a German Shepherd kind of movie in my book. Unforgiven to me doesn’t look like a bigger budget movie and its scope is limited to a genre movie.
The same would apply to Moulin Rouge and Beautiful Mind. The latter stars one of the world’s biggest star at that moment with a super successful director, so I believe a big chunk of that film’s production would go toward them. But the main reason that I say Moulin Rouge is a shepherd to Beautiful Mind is because of its production content. Moulin has the razzmatazz quality of eye and ear candy, a visual and audio feast, and is a bigger artistic risk than Beautiful Mind which is just a biopic of a scientist that has a more ordinary feel.
“Yeah, just like Boyhood has more appeal and is more “universally likable” than Birdman. Yet, somehow, The Departed still won BP…”
If you want to play that game, we can also say… just like LMS who won PGA and SAG, Birdman still lost to another frontrunner because Birdman, like LMS, did not have an editing nom.
“Every straight white/frat boy/man I know walked out of “Wolf Of Wall Street” coveting the lifestyle and pleasures of Jordan Belfort, unaware of any irony or nuance in Scorcese’s intentions. Every straight white / frat boy /man I know walked out of ‘American Sniper” wanting to shoot a savage towel head. I know these directors don’t intentionally desire these reactions, but that’s how they are perceived.”
Dan, thank you so much for this point. It is so (unfortunately) true. Wold of Wall Street has become such a fraternity sensation on college campuses.
I would also add Whiplash to the list. So many people are praising it, specifically the line about how dangerous the words “good job” are. What is actually incredibly dangerous is not hearing those words. The long-term psychological effects are endless, and anyone who missed that point of Whiplash completely missed a point of the movie. But, people do miss those points, just like they did with Wolf of Wall Street.
Thanks Al of NY, glad someone thought it interesting!
What I said about AS is just a thought I was having, I do still think that the true-story aspect is gonna shy voters away – it just seems far too “political” a statement in a way that the much more ambiguous Hurt Locker wasn’t.
RE: Grand Budapest: The following article is mostly in line with my opinion of Anderson, though I disagree on a few points: http://moviepilot.com/posts/2014/03/07/the-grand-budapest-hotel-where-only-white-middle-class-can-check-in-1265240?lt_source=external,manual
And this coming from me — I tend to be very wary of “politically correct” arguments and even more weary of the whole “privilege” debate, even though I’m Hispanic and gay so I fit the demographic of a lot of “social justice bloggers” (who I generally hate). But I just can’t let go of Anderson’s glaring privilege and snootiness. Minority characters in his movies serve almost exclusively as exotic foils, either the embodiment of his white characters’ vaguely colonialist fantasies, or serve simply as dumb, non-English speaking “straight men” off of which his oh-so-quirky main characters can reflect their quirkiness. The main kid in Budapest falls mostly into the latter for me. Let’s not forget the Asian man from Tenenbaums who’s name was literally Pagoada. Anderson may every once in a while try to wink at the audience as if to say, “no no I’m making FUN of privileged people!” but it just doesn’t work – his movies still thrive off of these sick fantasies, and even worse he tries to make us feel sympathetic for main characters who are on the whole rich and privileged and who LITERALLY have NO other problems except for the ones they make themselves.
But Budapest itself is Anderson’s magnum opus when it comes to wealthy white Anglo characters living out their insanely privileged lives within Anderson’s most meticulously constructed Exotic Oriental fantasy world yet – the Grand Budapest Hotel. Seriously? The whole place is literally a western fantasy of an exoticized, bohemian “East” (in this case, Eastern Europe, which is just SO COOL HIPSTER ISN’T IT?) – forget that there’s not a single Eastern European in the whole movie, and that Eastern Europe by far suffered the most from WWII, which is used as another quirky gimmick in this movie. Having cool proto-Nazis adorn your screen doesn’t add gravitas to your film, it just makes you look like an idiot. Who is more in danger here – the rich French/British/Americans who vacation at the Budapest (wait, why is it called the Budapest again? I thought this was a fictional country!), or the Slavic peoples who presumably must work staff? The whole quirky-for-quirk’s sake comes off as offensive in other ways, too. Saoirse Ronan’s character has a port wine stain on her cheek in the shape of Mexico — WHY? Because it’s quirky? Why not Canada, or England? Because Mexico resides within Anderson’s privileged fantasy world as an exotic place full of mostly brown-skinned people that exists for the sole reason of making his characters seem ambiently exotic, otherworldly, “cool.” Ultimately every single one of his fantasy films takes place directly at the expense of the non-privileged (don’t get me started on Darjeeling). There’s just such a direct refusal to own up to it in every single movie, and it’s just sickening and a sorry excuse for satire. I’d rather watch a movie like American Sniper that is self-aware that it is about a racist man who doesn’t know he’s racist, or even a movie like 500 days of Summer (which is also “indie”, and which I love by the way), which features not a single character of color even though it’s set in LA, but at least it doesn’t pretend that it can carry on a parody of race-relations or mock the privilege of its characters.
Other than all that, I also just don’t fall for his whole schticky precise-detail thing, it’s just trying too hard – i.e., narrating things like “Every day at precisely One fifty-two, Mr. (insert name here) would (insert something “random” here).” It’s not ironic, it’s not funny, it’s not even silly enough for me to forgive it for wanting to be silly. I can write a whole lot more on the subject but this is probably too long already
“One of the reasons Boyhood got nominated is because of its unprecedented rave reviews.”
Then why didn’t it win?
**them
Al of NY, Good points, and I hadn’t thought about them.
“I think your point is purely speculative”
Oh, absolutely. We are all speculating right know.
As for why Boyhood got nominated, I can tell you one personal opinion. The first time I saw Boyhood, I was shocked and moved by it. But, one of my firsts thoughts was that a movie like that could never be an Oscar contender. One of the reasons Boyhood got nominated is because of its unprecedented rave reviews.
I can’t see Boyhood winning Best Picture and its director winning Best Director. It’s going to be a split again this year between Birdman and Boyhood, and Linklater and Inarritu. Boyhood is just not the best picture of 2014 to me.
“My point is that those movies you mentioned look like superproductions compared to Boyhood.”
Well, then anything does, because The King’s Speech is NOT a super-production, at $15 million budget. Not compared to pretty much anything other than Boyhood (see below if you don’t believe me). So how come Boyhood was even nominated by the PGA? If they only go for super-productions, then how come they couldn’t find 10 more impressive productions to nominate?
I think your point is purely speculative.
“I concur with your points, Juan Obando. Boyhood has $4 million budget and that was only b/c it spreads over 12 years. If it were done like a typical movie, it would be significantly less. The movie looks more like a $2mil movie. Hawke and Arquette (the latter is not even a movie star) give it some gravitas. Otherwise, it’d be buried deeper in the indie grave.”
OK, then, again: how come the PGA even nominated it? Whiplash, too, and that one they REALLY didn’t HAVE to nominate… Hmmm, guess that rule you guys just invented must not be a thing after all…
“I would rate The Crying Game and Unforgiven as two German Shepherds.”
🙂 Funny guy!… Wikipedia:
Unforgiven – Budget $14.4 million
The Crying Game – Budget $3.6 million
The difference is even bigger than I thought!
The other BP nominees that year all had much bigger budgets than The Crying Game, but you ignore those as potential PGA winners…
Also:
“Moulin Rouge over Beautiful Mind”
Moulin Rouge! – Budget $52 million
A Beautiful Mind – Budget $58 million
“Little Miss Sunshine over The Departed is the only anomaly (my explanation for that is LMS had a wider appeal while Departed was considered more of a genre movie).”
Yeah, just like Boyhood has more appeal and is more “universally likable” than Birdman. Yet, somehow, The Departed still won BP…
I concur with your points, Juan Obando. Boyhood has $4 million budget and that was only b/c it spreads over 12 years. If it were done like a typical movie, it would be significantly less. The movie looks more like a $2mil movie. Hawke and Arquette (the latter is not even a movie star) give it some gravitas. Otherwise, it’d be buried deeper in the indie grave.
I think that “smallness” is Boyhood’s biggest handicap at the Oscars as well, though not as much as at the PGA.
Last year, I had expected Gravity to win the PGA because of the German Shepherd theory you speak about. 12 Years a Slave is a poodle comparing to Gravity (though it is a German Shepherd compared to a Boyhood). So when 12 Years a Slave tied with Gravity (meaning that it was competitive at PGA), I was much more confident then that it would take the Oscars. Had Gravity had one more vote (and we don’t know about it) and won the PGA, I’d think that 12 Years a Slave’s chance at the Oscars would still be a mystery then, though not necessarily diminished.
When PGA’s choices are different than the Oscars, their winners tend to be bigger movie. Saving Private Ryan over Shakespeare in Love, Moulin Rouge over Beautiful Mind, Aviator over Million Dollar Baby, Brokeback Mountain over Crash. I would rate The Crying Game and Unforgiven as two German Shepherds. Little Miss Sunshine over The Departed is the only anomaly (my explanation for that is LMS had a wider appeal while Departed was considered more of a genre movie).
Without knowing the ballot counts at this year’s PGA, Birdman’s win can be interpreted in different ways – that it is a movie to beat or that Boyhood is not as a slam dunk as it was previously perceived. Boyhood’s Oscar chances are still somewhat a mystery. Had Boyhood, the smallest movie (with the possible exception of Whiplash) of the ten nominees, won, the race should be completely over.
“Really? Argo, too? The King’s Speech? Great feats of production? I don’t know about that…”
My point is that those movies you mentioned look like superproductions compared to Boyhood. Do you REALLY think that Boyhood is any similar to Argo and King’s Speech?
“I think – controversy or no – American Sniper has some potential to take BP as a spoiler.”
If I had the funds to back it up, I would give anyone and everyone 1000 to 1 odds on that happening. Even now, before its inevitable DGA loss. And it’d be easy money…
“2. American Sniper – 22%”
You gotta smile at that sort of thing…
“I’m continually stunned how all you people can’t see that The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to sweep the Oscars with a minimum of 6 wins. Truly mind-boggling.”
I’m so not worried about that, I won’t even bother trying to argue with you.
“The editing snub is significant, just like the Screenplay snub last year with Gravity was, if you care about stats.”
Yes, “stats”. Plural…
Also, the screenplay snub, had it been the only one, wouldn’t have been much of a problem for Gravity (or anything else). It also had the WGA snub, the SAG snub and the genre bias stat to contend with. THAT is the full explanation. Don’t minimalize to help your argument!
“I may be wrong, but I really feel like stats like directing/screenplay/editing are more reliable than even two of the guilds. After all, PGA and SAG have only been around for twenty years or so”
That literally proves NOTHING about their reliability.
“Sorry, Michelle Obama. But have you ever seen The Deer Hunter, Coming Home, Born on the Fourth of July, The Hurt Locker, the television series Homeland??
I hate when people in our culture of absolutes and PR hype come out and call something groundbreaking without a modicum of knowledge of what’s come before. Sniper is not groundbreaking in any way”
Bares repeating…
“If American Sniper had been about a fictional vet a la Hurt Locker there’d probably be a very different response – you’d have an interesting thought experiment about a lethal vet who truly believes what he did was right”
No, you’d still have an unlikable character with no redeeming features, bad storytelling and cliche dialogue. Minus the excuse of it being based on a true story.
“Perhaps one of the reasons the PGA has worked so well recently—besides the preferential ballot issue—, is that during those years the nominees were all German Shepherds.”
Really? Argo, too? The King’s Speech? Great feats of production? I don’t know about that…
“Boyhood is going to win best picture because it is the best picture of 2014”
That’s just not true. If it IS going to win, it’s going to win BECAUSE THEY LIKED IT THE MOST. Like Argo, like The Artist (and like all of the good ones too). It will have nothing to do with it ACTUALLY BEING the best of 2014. The fact (most people, myself not included, also happen to think) that it is would just be a happy accident. And I’d be happy for Sasha – should it happen, her favorite (that actually had a chance) will have won 2 years in a row! Which is what would happen for me if Birdman won (except it would be my two ACTUAL favorites).
That’s right, Chris. Only directed by him. Were I to include the Leone films I bet they’d dominate a good part of top five spots 🙂 and Don Siegel making the Top 10 as well, I bet.
G-Man:
I wouldn’t label being a bigot, racist serial killer, being just a “flaw”.
This site has constantly defended looking past the errors of of Selma, asking us to just accept the overall theme, while nitpicking every detail of American Sniper. Both movies were great. King, Johnson, and Kyle all had flaws just like us all, but they all did great things for the United States.
Michelle Obama, OF COURSE, is going to praise American Sniper. I don’t understand how anyone would be so naive to think there was a chance she wouldn’t.
Like, GIMME A BREAK!
I’d say this is the race right now…
1. Boyhood – 30%
2. American Sniper – 22%
3. Birdman – 20 %
4. Selma – 15%
5. Grand Budapest Hotel – 6%
6. The Imitation Game – 4%
7. Whiplash – 2%
8. The Theory of Everything – 1%
It’s a four way race between Boyhood (lead), American Sniper (the hot property right now), Birdman (which seems to be earning some fire) and Selma (the kind of film that I can see winning Best Picture, without any other win, specially out of a “must” feeling).
I wouldn’t be shocked if Grand Budapest Hotel or The Imitation Game won, but for that, they must win at least 4-5 other awards… Grand Budapest Hotel’s possible upset demands a Best Original Screenplay upset over both Birdman and Boyhood (if not, forget it), and The Imitation Game requires winning Adapted Screenplay (which would be way more deserved than the favorite, “Whiplash”) and also Cumberbatch defeating both Keaton and Redmayne (which, could happen, but it’s unlikely… Cumberbatch is the kind of actor, AMPAS is confident, will become an usual name to be mentioned at nominations mornings, from now on… plenty of time to reward him).
“Whiplash” and “The Theory of Everything”, so happy to be there, you know. They are aiming only at Simmons and Redmayne spoiling the night… if Redmayne wins, Birdman loses, by the way.
So if either Birdman/Boyhood wins, you’re going to have an outlier. Either Birdman wins and breaks the GG Comedy/no editing nomination streak, or Boyhood wins and breaks the PGA winner’s streak. Frankly, I think Boyhood is still likely to win Best Picture since the PGA/Best Picture correlation isn’t as lengthy. True, the PGA has coincided with every Best Pic since 2007….but before that, the two only matched up twice in the previous six years. In the 25-year history of the PGA’s award, it’s matched up with Best Picture 17.5 times counting the Gravity/12 Years tie), which is certainly a solid majority, yet not an airtight one.
Although I didn’t feel this way when I saw Boyhood (I’m a liberal guy), many of my friends were turned off by the supposed pro-Obama/anti-Bush elements (the scene where Ethan Hawke’s character talks about Iraq, the 2008 campaign)
On one hand, you had the stereotypical angry “Barack HUSSEIN Obama!” Republican voter and Hawke’s character’s opinions. On the other hand, you had the “I dreamt I was literally kissing Obama!” stereotypical flighty Democrat voter and the fact that Hawke’s character is an untrustworthy deadbeat for much of the movie. I felt the political views were actually pretty evenly split in Boyhood.
Stats are there for a reason, though none of us can truly explain why an editing nom has always had such a mysterious connection to a BP win. The editing snub is significant, just like the Screenplay snub last year with Gravity was, if you care about stats. Of course, if you don’t, you just go for whatever for want (and of course sometimes hunches do beat statistics, though not often).
Gravity won 7 Oscars; it had sweeping support across the technical branches and also eneded up taking the Director prize. It even won DGA+PGA, which showed strong industry support. Still it ended up losing to 12 Years a Slave (which barely won PGA — imagine that it had one less vote, and it would’ve lost all three guilds), and I think this was due to two reasons: first, the film is sci-fi; second, the film has no screenplay nod.
Birdman won’t have the sweeping tech support Gravity had; in fact, its best shot (Cinematography) isn’t necessarily a locked up category either (I could see the collective Academy going for Mr. Turner). Even if it wins DGA (which significantly increases its BP chances), it may still lose due to two reasons similar to what happened to Gravity last year: first, the film is way too quirky; second, the film has no editing nod.
I may be wrong, but I really feel like stats like directing/screenplay/editing are more reliable than even two of the guilds. After all, PGA and SAG have only been around for twenty years or so but the directing/screenplay/editing stats have been mostly right for almost 90 years. The last film to win without an editing nod was 35 years ago, and at that time, SAG and PGA did not even exist.
You may give me the Argo argument regarding the director stat, but that was a completely different story. It was the most “embraceable” film that year with the rooting factor, and it won DGA, PGA, SAG, WGA, GG, BFCA, BAFTA and ACE. In order to overcome the directing stat, the film had won basically everything after the Oscar snub of Ben Affleck. Birdman already lost three of those, and it’s definitely not the most huggable film of the year.
Of course, Boyhood isn’t the typical film that the Academy embraces either, so this makes for an interesting year. Still, between the two Bs, Boyhood is certainly the more conventional and universal of the two, and it’s also not quirky at all. If it takes DGA, we may very well see that the PGA will finally be wrong after 7 years. It’s not that unbelievable really, because overall the DGA had a higher percentage of predicting BP winner than PGA. DGA has 74% after Braveheart; PGA has 68% after Braveheart. The preferential ballot system shared by both the PGA and the Academy in recent years may be significant, but remember last year they almost got it wrong.
i don’t think you can use the social network as a metric here. it’s completely different. if anything, birdman, as a film, is far more alined to the social network; boyhood parallels the king’s speech better. boyhood is easily the gentler of the two films. it’s actually a very safe movie.
”Birdman did very well at the AACTA Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Screenplay”).
I’ve never heard of AACTA, so I had to Google it: FYI, it’s the Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts International Awards (not to be confused with the plain AACTA awards, which recognize Australian movies). The other 2015 winners were Best Actress: Julianne Moore; Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons; Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette. They are voted on by 80 Australian filmmakers and film execs. Last year, the ceremony was in L.A. and it was taped as a one-hour special for Australian TV. At the risk of sounding cynical, it sounds like another awards show piggybacking off the Oscars; 16 of its 20 acting nominees were the same as the Academy’s. … As an Oscar predictor, however, it fell really short last year:
* AACTA Best Picture: ”Gravity”
* AACTA Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron
* AACTA Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor
* AACTA Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
* AACTA Best Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender
* AACTA Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
* AACTA Best Screenplay: ”American Hustle”
The AACTA International Awards give out only 7 prizes; last year, only 2 of them matched up with the Oscars.
In 2013, they chose ”Silver Linings” for Best Picture; only 3 of the 7 AACTA winners went on to win Oscars.
I’m continually stunned how all you people can’t see that The Grand Budapest Hotel is going to sweep the Oscars with a minimum of 6 wins. Truly mind-boggling.
Not that it means anything, but Birdman did very well at the AACTA Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Screenplay). They’ve only predicted Best Picture correctly once in their first three years, but this could very well be what happens at the Oscars.
Sasha,
You might be unaware that Mr. And Mrs. Obama just gave support to American Sniper. Saying it accurately depicts the struggles of war on soldiers and their families. Mrs. Obama even tried to encourage more directors to make films like American Sniper to accurately depict men and women in the armed forces. Now, maybe, just maybe, that could sway the mind of voters you think might be against the film? I think it might. Now that the head honcho of the democrats lent its support to a “right wing” film there could be some draw to the film voting wise. Not saying it will. But I wouldn’t be surprised if something like that happened now. Something to consider and discuss.
Nothing about Best Picture race this year was unpredictable–not the falls of Unbroken and Into the Woods, not the steady maintenance of Boyhood up top, not the rise of Theory of Everything and Imitation Game to “nominee” status, nothing was unpredictable or weird or out of the ordinary–until Birdman won PGA. But it still seems that the best way to explain that is to say it was one outlier. Everything else points to this being a Boyhood year, as it was since the summer. This has felt all along like a one-movie Best Picture year, like The Artist for 2011. Birdman is Hugo.
The only real unpredictable aspect of this year’s Oscars is Best Actor — it is truly hard to tell who it will be, between Keaton and Redmayne (and even a potential spoiler like Cooper).
Thanks, Antoinette! of course we’re interested. I was in the middle of posting it when my net connection went down.
Sundance awards if interested
“However, my theory is that Boyhood, while being a poodle—a beautiful and charming poodle, imho—, was participating in a competition meant for German Shepherds.”
Ha! That’s a great analogy.
Gah!! I wrote an extra word that I didn’t mean to have in there. “I can’t imagine most of you guys all being wrong.” Yeah, I mean most, not all.
Most does not equal all. 🙂
It’s hard to predict against Birdman at this point since it won the SAG and PGA, but Boyhood has the most support. I can’t imagine most of you guys all being wrong. That doesn’t seem right. I voted for Birdman, but I don’t care if I’m wrong, because that would mean Boyhood (most likely) won. I don’t see any other movie but either Birdman or Boyhood winning Best Picture. Yes, The Grand Budapest Hotel just won the Ace Eddie, but so did Boyhood.
I don’t know what is going to win Best Picture at the Oscars, and I’m glad I don’t know. That makes this season all the more exciting. I have Sasha’s Oscar Podcast words in my head where she said “Be careful what you wish for…”, but I know I’ll be happy either way.
“At this point it would be shocking if Birdman didn’t take Best Picture (why now of all times would the PGA suddenly be wrong?)”
That’s defenitely a great advantage for Birdman. However, my theory is that Boyhood, while being a poodle—a beautiful and charming poodle, imho—, was participating in a competition meant for German Shepherds. I mean, it’s a extremely low budget film—with amateur actors that wear no makeup and stylish costumes, there’s no score, the cinematography is not particularly impressive, etc.; compared to those of Birdman and GBH, its production is modest. I’m not saying that shooting a movie over 12 years is not a huge achievement, but maybe the PGA voters saw in Boyhood a director’s achievement instead. Now, is the PGA award the equivalent to BP this time? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps one of the reasons the PGA has worked so well recently—besides the preferential ballot issue—, is that during those years the nominees were all German Shepherds. This, of course, is just an speculation. That’s why the DGA is gonna tell us a lot about what they really think about Boyhood, and the rest of the nominees for that matter.
Wow, Alex! Very intrigued at what you wrote both about Sniper and Anderson.
As far as predicting the big winners (i.e. more than one Oscar), it’s looking like:
Birdman (Picture, Director (?), Actor, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography)
Boyhood (Director (?), Supporting Actress, and Film Editing)
Grand Budapest Hotel (Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup)
Interstellar (Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing)
The DGA will go with one or the other, but again, with Birdman’s popularity and the fact that the direction played a much bigger part in the film, it should most definitely be Inarritu. Anderson, Tyldum, and Eastwood will just have to be happy with the nomination.
Unpredictable??
We all know that unfortunately Boyhood is gonna win :/
Thousands of students here in Houston have seen Selma free-and 1,000 after watching it were inspired to do a mass walkout from one our city’s worst high schools to protest the conditions. Its a film about change and creating change. Its the film everyone is talking about and will be talking about feb 22nd and after. It should have had a great chance to win big Oscar night, but alas likely wont. A fascinating movie that is so much more!
http://blogs.houstonisd.org/news/2015/01/28/generous-donation-allows-hisd-students-to-see-civil-rights-film-selma/
http://www.chron.com/news/education/article/Yates-High-safety-walkout-protest-turns-chaotic-6048571.php
As far as I can tell the biggest thing that will probably hold back American Sniper (and what hurt ZD30) in terms of the Oscar race is that it is based on a real person/real event and as aimed at faithfully reproducing every bit of the story. There’s too much at stake there politically regarding the second most controversial war in our history behind Vietnam, and Apocalypse Now/Deer Hunter/Coming Home/Full Metal Jacket/Platoon were all fictional. If American Sniper had been about a fictional vet a la Hurt Locker there’d probably be a very different response – you’d have an interesting thought experiment about a lethal vet who truly believes what he did was right, and you wouldn’t have the controversy around whether or not the real Kyle was actually “a true American Hero” which I think is outside the scope of Eastwood’s movie – he’s a real human being whose family is still around. On the other hand that very element is what’s keeping the movie on track to win 300mil or more.
Honestly as long as Budapest Hotel doesn’t upset anywhere I’ll be happy. I could write for hours about why that vapid film is far more racist and generally more upsetting than anything Eastwood has ever filmed, the only reason so few people talk about this is because in our world the Quirky Colorful Indies of Anderson couldn’t POSSIBLY be inherently racist or classist (of the worst kind, too – racism and classism that doesn’t know its racist and classist)! That goes for every Anderson movie by the way.
Boyhood is going to win best picture because it is the best picture of 2014
I am as liberal as it gets and I liked American Sniper . It was 13th on my top 20 list.
If the incredibly mild jabs about Iraq and the 2008 election in Boyhood were really that politically radioactive with the academy, then we are about to enter a period of relentlessly bland apolitical films that will make the films of the Reagan 80’s look like the French New Wave in comparison.
Once again, I think Sasha’s right in pin-pointing AS as a right-wing movie that represents everything the Academy hates, being died-in-the-wool lefties. It’s really that simple. So with all the politics flying around the Oscars this year, I can imagine them going for a film that does not resonate politically AT ALL. Which is all three of “Boyhood”, “Birdman” and “Grand Budgest Hotel”.
Isn’t it amazing you have to admit that a film that opened in MARCH, “Grand Budapest…” is still going strong? And winning the A.C.E. Eddie OVER “Birdman” is even more significant, I think.
From deep Inside The Academy, I hear whispers of “It’s not an Academy movie.” “It’s a silly little film”. Excuse me it’s a great screwball comedy, and is massively loved!
Wouldn’t it be something if “Grand Budapest…” won the DGA? I personally would love that to happen.
And I DO think the likely-hood a split between Best Director and Best Picture is more than probable. The preferential ballot for Best Picture sets it up to be something different from Best Director, because of the way the ballots are counted.
I don’t know what the hell is going on. I picked AMERICAN SNIPER in the poll because of tweets from celebrities in my timeline who probably are in the Academy, like Jane Fonda, and because I’d never pick the obvious winner. That’s just not how I roll.
All this talk about American Sniper makes me think that Clint Eastwood’s gonna win the DGA…
… I feel like if there’s a strong enough Sniper contingent in the Academy (which there might well be), it might be enough to overpower contention between our two frontrunners.
Well there wasn’t during nominations, and we know that was all a matter of timing. These people, by and large, don’t understand the process of developing independent, individual taste. Sure, the HFPA didn’t give a single fuck about American Sniper, and BFCA barely did either at the nominations stage, but you bloody know they would have had they voted later. So yes, given the timing, AMPAS could easily make a quick shift and veer sharply to the right and give another one to granddaddy Clint.
I am currently predicting another 4-way tie like we had in 2006 with Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Memoirs of a Geisha, and King Kong. I see the following films winning 3 Oscars each:
Boyhood (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress)
Birdman (Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Production Design, Costume Design, Make-Up)
American Sniper (Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)
I’m also predicting that this year will be a year in which each Best Picture nominee takes home an Oscar:
Whiplash (Supporting Actor)
The Imitation Game (Adapted Screenplay)
The Theory of Everything (Original Score)
Selma (Original Song)
My other predictions are Still Alice (Actress), Guardians of the Galaxy (Visual Effects), How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Animated Film), Leviathan (Foreign Film), and Virunga (Documentary)
Bryce,
Are you not counting the Leone films for your Clint list? Is it just a list of directorial efforts?
With all due respect, and I dont know the circumstances under which this information came to light, but can you imagine the shitstorm if either Fonda or Mme Obama said they did NOT like American Sniper? They are both in the business of being liked, so what could they say? The cause of veterans suffering from PTSD is very real, and both women undertsand that these guys have basically been abandoned by the same people that sent them on the turkey hunt. Anyway, that has nothing to do with the price or rice as far as Oscar voting goes.
I must be having a rare moment of optimism because I think the Academy will experience a moment of enlightenment and actually vote for the best film on their shopping list – Boyhood. They may nod at AS in the Best Actor category and award Cooper’s threepeat, but that’s probably it.
(Sorry, Claudiu. Your passion for Birdman is enviable and I admire your arguments for it. Enjoy it!)
Every straight white/frat boy/man I know walked out of “Wolf Of Wall Street” coveting the lifestyle and pleasures of Jordan Belfort, unaware of any irony or nuance in Scorcese’s intentions. Every straight white / frat boy /man I know walked out of ‘American Sniper” wanting to shoot a savage towel head. I know these directors don’t intentionally desire these reactions, but that’s how they are perceived.
Sorry, Michelle Obama. But have you ever seen The Deer Hunter, Coming Home, Born on the Fourth of July, The Hurt Locker, the television series Homeland??
I hate when people in our culture of absolutes and PR hype come out and call something groundbreaking without a modicum of knowledge of what’s come before. Sniper is not groundbreaking in any way, though that shouldn’t take away from what is a perfectly fine film.
I predict white men will win. Wish NPH would resign in protest.
Hi Sasha:
You’ve mentioned for sometime that you are stunned that Boyhood is getting snubbed by the industry even though the critics liked it. You have also mentioned how current politics in America are likely to affect Selma and American Sniper’s chances when it comes to wins. Although I didn’t feel this way when I saw Boyhood (I’m a liberal guy), many of my friends were turned off by the supposed pro-Obama/anti-Bush elements (the scene where Ethan Hawke’s character talks about Iraq, the 2008 campaign) and was wondering if you though, like Selma and American Sniper, the academy is just afraid to award any of these movies for fear of a backlash? This could explain why Birdman (and I think Grand Budapest Hotel will benefit on Oscar night as well from this) is starting to win? Both Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel are comedies that don’t risk alienating along political lines and is an escape? Anyhow, like you said: The WGA and DGA will tell us a whole lot. I’m predicting that Wes Anderson will win DGA and WGA will go Boyhood only because Birdman wasn’t nominated. At the Oscars, I think Birdman will win for Best Picture and Original Screenplay and Grand Budapest Hotel will win for Best Director and that will be the stunner of the night. Also, Selma and Boyhood don’t have American Sniper box office numbers so to not anger conservatives, Cooper could pull off an upset and win best actor (If Birdman wins for Best Pic, it’s an even bigger victor for Keaton anyway).
What’s clear to me at this juncture is that the DGA will be revealing.
If Linklater wins, then if nothing else he’s absolutely winning the Oscar for Best Director and probably Best Picture along with it, though I wouldn’t necessarily count out a Birdman-Linklater split from happening.
If Inarritu wins, then Birdman’s probably on the path to take Picture, though Linklater may still steal away with Director on Oscar night.
If someone else wins, I haven’t a clue. Let’s hope, at least, it’s not Morten Tyldum.
I think – controversy or no – American Sniper has some potential to take BP as a spoiler. Honestly, I see that happening before The Imitation Game or at least Grand Budapest winning. It’s also possible that Cooper will grab Best Actor out from under Keaton and Redmayne – I feel like if there’s a strong enough Sniper contingent in the Academy (which there might well be), it might be enough to overpower contention between our two frontrunners.
And since everyone else is giving their two cents: I don’t understand how anyone walks out of Sniper thinking it’s a celebration of Kyle’s views or an uncritical take on the war in Iraq. Such a reading relies strictly on a selective take on the text of the film, ignoring the context and subtext entirely. Eastwood’s even stated very plainly that it’s an anti-war film. Don’t let the film’s more cultish supporters confuse the meaning of the film.
At this point it would be shocking if Birdman didn’t take Best Picture (why now of all times would the PGA suddenly be wrong?). Also, it should be Inarritu taking the DGA, not Linklater, as Birdman is a brilliant combination of directing, cinematography, and editing.. It still baffles me as to why people think that Linklater deserves it (the idea/concept alone does not warrant giving him Best Director). Hopefully the DGA will correct the terrible oversight by jumping over to Birdman like the PGA did.
Keaton got dis!
Michelle Obama endorses American sniper. Just in time for the DGAs 🙂
Saw this today. Michelle Obama says she believes this portrayal of veterans is groundbreaking. I’m intrigued to see if this kind of thing has any influence on Sniper’s chances. http://www.people.com/article/michelle-obama-american-sniper-white-house?xid=rss-fullcontent&from_app=ios&ref_=ext_iosp_
Yesterday, Michelle Obama gushed with praise for American Sniper. Jane Fonda loves it as well. And moviegoers are buying tickets not just in Texas and Utah, but in Manhattan, San Francisco, and Washington, DC as well. Why? Because it’s a story about a service member and his personal experiences, not a movie about the war. The movie shows the anguish of many veterans who become disillusioned with the war, including Kyle’s brother. The claim that AS is simply fodder for the right is getting tiresome.
Boyhood is still the frontrunner for BP, though, with Sniper in third or fourth place. The academy might choose to honor Sniper with a Best Actor win for Bradley Cooper, although Keaton and Redmayne should be the oddsmakers favorites at this point.
Top 10 Clint
1. UNFORGIVEN
2. THE OUTLAW JOSEY WALES
3. BIRD
4. A PERFECT WORLD
5. HIGH PLANES DRIFTER
6. MYSTIC RIVER
7. THE BRIDGES OF MADISON COUNTY
8. MILLION DOLLAR BABY
9. HONKYTONK MAN
10. PALE RIDER
“The thing to note that is significant is that Boyhood earned its first big guild win.”
No. It won its SECOND guild win. Arquette won SAG (a guild award), which makes the film just as competitive as Birdman with its SAG Ensemble win.
Boyhood is winning Best Picture..have this gut feeling.
However, I will, regardless of who wins the DGA and/or BAFTA (and of who I will be officially predicting by the end), almost certainly be betting at least a reasonable amount on Boyhood to win, as insurance.
No further comment at this time.
My prediction FOR NOW is still Birdman. The end.
I’ll take either FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS or SPACE COWBOYS any day of the week as my preferred “America, fuck yeah!” Eastwood titles over SNIPER.
What’s his face from FIFTY SHADES OF GRAY is pretty damn good in SNIPER for that small of a role!
The only aspects of American Sniper I can really get behind are the sensitive, novel portrayal of PTSD and the excellence Eastwood displays at staging action sequences. He is a consummate craftsman through and through, and Cooper teams with him to deliver an interesting spin on the “coming home” narrative. Never mind that Eastwood already covered this ground in Flags Of Our Fathers. The reason it is novel in this film is precisely because of the particular subject Eastwood has chosen to focus on. Kyle is resolute in his belief that he did the right thing at war, and has no remorse whatsoever. So when trauma creeps up on him, he can’t even fully understand the effect all the killing he did has had on him. Thus guilt becomes a kind of specter, an outside force that complicates his own personal truth and haunts him without ever providing some kind of moment of realization or catharsis.
I saw American Sniper around early December at a SAG screening and the first thing I said walking out of it was that I appreciated the fact that the right got their own well made Oscar bait-y movie to be proud of (proud of it in terms of being a prestige film with high production value and A-list talent attached). I like a level playing field in terms of discourse, and films about the Iraq War up to this point have by and large propped up and supported the conservative claim that all Hollywood does is push a liberal agenda. Now that is basically an impossible claim to make.
That doesn’t mean I can’t disagree with the sentiments contained in the film. American Sniper pretty much does not at all address the criticism of said war, nor does it present any sympathetic, normal Iraqis and in fact portrays virtually every single middle easterner in the film as some kind of savage villain. Even the “nice” guy who invites them to his dinner table is hiding a massive cache of weaponry under his bed. Most think pieces about the film have focused on Chris Kyle’s sentiments and beliefs which are presented in the film without comment, and the defense against those think pieces say that there’s nothing wrong with Eastwood presenting the character as-is, without judgement. That’s true. Sniper is a character study and a good filmmaker will try to understand his/her characters by getting inside their thought process. I was more troubled by the lack of alternative viewpoints in the film, which absolutely must have been present virtually all around Kyle constantly based on testimony from countless other men and women who served, and especially the unfortunate choice to present every single Iraqi as a faceless bad guy with dubious motivations. Even the children are wielding bombs and trying to kill Americans. Not saying there weren’t bad people of all shapes and sizes in that area at that time. I’m saying if all you knew of the war was what you saw in American Sniper, you’d probably end up thinking just like that crazy fucking lady on Fox News who recently said we need to wipe that entire part of the world off the face of the earth.
If American Sniper wins Best Picture, then it would be constantly referenced when listing the Worst Best Picture winners ever, up there along with The Greatest Show on Earth, Crash, and The Broadway Melody, among others.
Its inclusion should be derided along with the likes of The Blind Side, War Horse, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. It’s just a so-so film at best.
Hopefully Boyhood takes the Best Picture and Best Director.
It would be great if each of the acting winners went to someone playing a fictional character. When was the last time that happened? This biopic shit has to stop.
You know what would mess this race up is Linklater winning WGA and Wes Anderson winning DGA