Predicting the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes, like the BAFTA noms, like the DGA announcement on Tuesday will have no impact whatsoever on the Oscar nominations. This was a deliberate (hasty) choice by the Academy to distinguish themselves from the rest of the consensus, so that they were purely them and not just a period at the end of a long-winded sentence.

The Globes have become their own thing, standing up virtually as a worthy awards show in and of themselves, without needing to be an essential part of the Oscar race. To say someone won a Golden Globe has become almost as important as winning an Oscar, though not quite. Weirdly enough, the Globes are actually more daring than the Oscars in many different ways. They’re more progressive, more open-minded yet continue to get no respect from the people who cover the awards. They are only about 100 people compared to the 6,000 who vote on the Oscars.

Vive la difference. Any group that parts ways with voting “how they think Oscar will go” is okay in my book.

As you can see by the charts at Gold Derby I’ve gone completely agains the consensus. This is never a wise move. You should definitely follow the better predictors over there, including Anne Thompson, Steve Pond and Susan Wloszczyna. I am notoriously bad at them. But this year, nobody knows anything beyond a certainty yet and the Globes do tend to be unpredictable. The only other person who is daring to take the non-consensus way out is Jenelle Reilly, who has Selma predicted for Picture and Director.

The majority of the pundits are correct in predicting Inarritu for Director and Boyhood for Picture. But there are likely some other things that might happen. Kris Tapley and Greg Ellwood at Hitfix are predicting The Imitation Game to win Drama. That also seems highly likely.

I will probably get exiled to the island of bad predictors this year because I’ve gone and done exactly what no one else is doing. I could hide behind the consensus and when it comes to scoring gets the same as everyone else. But I’m really hoping to be dead last, to wear “loser” like a badge of honor. Don’t you be like me. If you want to win don’t follow what I do. Lecter does it to amuse himself.

Thus, my predictions are as follows:

Best Picture: Boyhood
Gold Derby: Boyhood
But it could just as likely be: Imitation Game

Best Picture Comedy: Birdman
Gold Derby: Birdman
But it could just as likely be: Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Director: Richard Linklater
Gold Derby: Split between Linklater and Inarritu
Could very well be: Ava DuVernay, Selma

Best Actor, Drama: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Gold Derby: Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
Could very well be: David Oyelowo, Selma

Best Actress, Drama: Jennifer Aniston, Cake (I know, I know)
Gold Derby: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
But it could just as likely be: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Gold Derby: Arquette
But it could just as likely be: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons, Whiplash
Gold Derby: Simmons
But it could just as likely be: Edward Norton, Birdman

Actress Musical Comedy: Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Gold Derby: Emily Blunt
But it could just as likely be: Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Actor Musical Comedy: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Gold Derby: Keaton
But it could just as likely be: Ralph Fiennes, Grand Budapest Hotel

Screenplay: Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Gold Derby: Birdman
But it could just as likely be: Imitation Game or Grand Budapest

Animated: Lego Movie
Gold Derby: Split

Foreign: Ida
Gold Derby: Ida
But it could just as likely be: Force Majeure or Leviathan

Score: Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross, Gone Girl
Gold Derby: Kind of split all over the place

Song: Mercy Is, Patti Smith
Gold Derby: Glory from Selma

So there you have it. My herding cats predictions. I feel sure I will be wrong. Make sure you ENTER OUR CONTEST — I will be posting what AD readers think will win over the weekend.

Here are the presenters for the night of the Big Show:

Amy Adams
Adrien Brody
Robert Downey, Jr.
Anna Faris
Ricky Gervais
Kevin Hart,
Salma Hayek
Kate Hudson
Gwyneth Paltrow
Chris Pratt
Channing Tatum
Lily Tomlin
Kristen Wiig
Owen Wilson
Catherine Zeta-Jones
Jennifer Aniston
Kate Beckinsale
Bryan Cranston
Jamie Dornan
Colin Firth
Jane Fonda
Harrison Ford
Bill Hader
Katherine Heigl
Dakota Johnson
Adam Levine
Jennifer Lopez
Matthew McConaughey
Seth Meyers
Lupita Nyong’o
Jeremy Renner
Meryl Streep
Lily Tomlin
Vince Vaughn
Kerry Washington