Lock and load. For years I’ve been covering the Oscar race and when Clint Eastwood is in shoot-em-up mode he mostly can’t be stopped when it comes to the Oscar race. We were huge supporters of Eastwood’s Mystic River, which is, to my mind, among his best films. But I’ve long been a fan of the man’s work, even Flags of our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima were my two favorites. Eastwood’s image took a bit of a hit when Obama was running for re-election. He came out in force against the President by talking to an empty chair. It didn’t go over too well. But the one thing Clint Eastwood is and will always be is a beloved icon within the Academy. They worship the man when he makes the kinds of films they like. Not so much when he does movies like Invictus or J. Edgar. American Sniper just made around $100 mil for its opening weekend, not surprising to me but apparently surprising to everyone who covers box office. The film could do more than $200 million.
The funny thing about Hollywood is that they tend to cater to reliable demographics, like the young boys who never really grow up to be men. They are a guaranteed demographic. This year they’ve seen what happens when you explore other demos, like the religious people out there, or the women, or the young women and now, with Sniper, you’re really seeing the silent majority speaking with their wallets. These are the many men who populate this country who aren’t really movie goers at all because they only pay to see movies with car crashes and lots of dead people. Sniper has it all – prestige, war hero, shooting people and the chance for Americans to feel like Americans, for better or worse.
Expect to see many more just like this one in the coming years. Money doesn’t talk, it swears.
How will Sniper do at the Oscars? Very well. Had Eastwood gotten a Best Director nomination, Sniper would be on target to upset Boyhood in a big big way. Eastwood would win his third Oscar, joining the ranks of the only three directors in Academy history to win more than two – William Wyler, Frank Capra (each with three) and John Ford (with four). Eastwood could have done that this year but the directors said no.
Remember, though, Eastwood could still win the DGA if this Sniper thing gets bigger than expected, and he could Affleck the thing all the way home. You could be looking at a potential split possibly with Sniper winning Best Picture and Linklater winning Best Director. It looked like the split could have happened with Birdman but with Sniper’s surge at the box office, the public support and the love for Eastwood in his 80s, watch out.
As it is, I expect Sniper to easily take both sound categories and editing. It could also take Adapted Screenplay (which rightly belongs to Gillian Flynn, those fuckers) and Best Actor from Michael Keaton. Sniper is not only beloved but it’s beloved by the white steak eaters – they dominate the Academy.
Sniper’s surge is going to turn this Oscar season into a bloodbath. Best Actor, for instance, has so many strong competitors in it — the British ones could be hurt by the chatter of late. Keaton deserves to win but I can’t put anything past the Academy at this point.
Stay frosty, Oscar watchers. This race just became very unpredictable. Oh and remember how everyone said no one was going to watch the Oscars because none of the movies made any money? Now, every gun toting war monger in the country could be watching. The eagle has landed.
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@Danny: American Sniper wasn’t making the political statements you claim it did- it was telling a story. It’s called FILMMAKING.
And yes, this was a boring year- predictable does not mean bad. It means expected. Boyhood was fine, but nothing special. Boredman with Michael Keaton was a snoozefest. The Theory of Everything and Imitation Game were exceptional, and Whiplash was my personal favorite. American Sniper is doing unexpected things and I like that- if it loses, so be it – but it’s nice to see something shake this race up.
“Free: Adrien Brody for The Pianist?”
Nah, Brody wasn’t an 11th hour nominee. You can argue that he was a late-breaking, 11th hour winner, but not a nominee. Brody got a Globe and a SAG nomination. He won the National Society of Film Critics Best Actor award, and he also won BAFTA, which in retrospect should have been a signal which way the tide was turning. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, Cooper not only didn’t win anything this year, he wasn’t even nominated for anything before his Oscar nomination. If he wins the Oscar (which I don’t think he will), it will be pretty much an unprecedented win. The closest parallel would be Marcia Gay Harden in supporting actress, and even she won the NYFCC prize that year.
Bradley Cooper is not taking away votes from anyone. Those who love Keaton or Redmayne’s performances are not going to switch their votes to Cooper.
Free: Adrien Brody for The Pianist?
For those predicting a Cooper upset, when’s the last time an 11th hour nominee came out of nowhere and won?
Jason Travis – I don’t think American Sniper inspires “passion” in ANYBODY: left, right, or comatose. It’s a paint-by-numbers Clint movie. Its script makes pretty obvious condemnations of the Iraq War and the way we treated our soldiers, but nothing particularly noteworthy. Its oddly canonizing credits sequence will alienate progressives.
And I STRONGLY disagree with you that this was a “BORING ASS” year. Boyhood is one of the best movies in a long, long, count-them-years time.
The movie is less “red” than you might expect going into it. It does plenty of badmouthing (rightfully so) of the Iraq War. What really surprises me is the Best Actor nom for Bradley. While he’s not bad (he’s never bad; I like him quite a bit), it’s not a “showy” role in any way besides the obvious weight gain. He doesn’t have many emotional, “oscar clip” scenes in the thing.
Without a director’s nod I don’t think Sniper has much chance of taking best picture. On top of that it seems too divisive if this site is any indication and Sasha says controversial films never win. The category which could prove interesting is actor depending upon whom Bradley Cooper may siphon votes from. If it’s Michael Keaton, then Eddie Redmayne would benefit and that would be awesome.
you’ve saved up so many edit coupons over the years, plenty more to redeem.
Thanks, Ryan. This is a really small point, but the “is this the start of it all?” at the end of the post is supposed to go too. It sort of sounds lame now when I reread it. (Or do I get only one edit per AD post?)
Fixed Robert A
I illustrated Seth Rogen’s tweet a few hours ago.
Raw Story found a tweet that summed everything wrong with new cult of Chris Kyle
“‘American Sniper’ is a big hit for Americans who fantasize about shooting Arabs but are afraid to go where Arabs shoot back.”
Oops! Ryan, you can remove the Seth Rogen tweet at the end of my post. I included his tweet in the body of my post.
Jason Travis,
I couldn’t have said it better myself. I agree with everything you just said and then some.
“PASSION is what American Sniper has- along with controversy, talk and prestige.”
The controversy is exactly why I think it won’t win. Controversy is what you want to avoid when going for the win, since an Oscar win needs consensus, and it’s hard to get that when a movie is too controversial. Plus, passion can run both ways–people can passionately hate the movie. (I haven’t seen it, by the way.)
Something this unexpectedly big that has some controversy attached to it will probably fall pretty hard and pretty fast. The backlash is already starting. A few examples: Michael Moore took a swipe at it on Twitter. Seth Rogen tweeted, “American Sniper kind of reminds me of the movie that’s showing in the third act of Inglorious Basterds.” Also, The Wrap had this to say:
“Over the weekend, multiple Academy members told The Wrap that they had been passing around a recent article by Dennis Jett in The New Republic that attacks the film for making a hero out of Kyle, who said: “The enemy are savages and despicably evil,” and his “only regret is that I didn’t kill more.” Kyle made the statements in his best-selling book, “American Sniper,” on which the film is based.
The film’s straightforward treatment of Kyle, who was killed in February 2013 by a veteran suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, is one of the reasons it has been celebrated by the military and embraced by audiences that have made it by far the top-grossing Best Picture nominee. The film had a massive opening when it went wide at the box office this weekend and is poised to break an historic $100 million this holiday weekend
But Academy members seem to be paying attention to the criticism that Eastwood and star/producer Bradley Cooper shouldn’t be celebrating a man who wrote that killing hundreds of Iraqis was “fun.”
“He seems like he may be a sociopath,” one Academy member told TheWrap, adding he had not yet seen the film but had read the article, which is being passed around.”
**
Not sure how accurate The Wrap story is, of course, but I suspect that American Sniper, whether fairly or unfairly, is going to turn into a political hot potato that AMPAS will probably shy away from. Finally, with AMPAS getting such criticism for its “whites only” nominees, it’s really hard for me to believe they’re going to fully embrace American Sniper, which seems like it would add more fuel to the fire, given the movie’s references to “savages” and whatnot.
Welcome to Awards Daily, Mac. I like your style. Good to have you around.
Well, Eastwood and Cooper’ll get rich without me. No way will I pay for a ticket to this.
Was there an interesting female character in The Hurt Locker? My memory may be gone but I don’t recall one. If there was, did she have a bigger and more compelling role than Sienna Miller?
Give it about a week before you start seeing news stories about “people enlisting because they were inspired by the movie”
I think American Sniper is going to do a lot better then we think. It’s $90 million opening weekend is a triumph. For an R rated film centered around war, this was truly an achievement. I have seen it twice now, and have been blown away. Clint Eastwood is a master filmmaker.
Let’s talk about the true gem of the film- Mr. Bradley Cooper. A tour de force if there ever was. His performance is raw, focused and heroic. I am at a loss of words with how beautiful his work is here. I am predicting he will win the Oscar for Best Actor, pulling an Adrien Brody. Michael Keaton, who will win the SAG, just doesn’t have enough juice for me to think he’s worthy to win. He’s getting a career award basically. In fact, him and Julianne Moore both are winning for career over actual performance (though Moore is arguably stronger). Much like 2009 (Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock). But with the late surge of support, ballots going out, and American Sniper destined to surpass $200 million domestically, I think Cooper (not Redmayne) is the potential – and deserving- spoiler, and I am predicting him. I also think the film will win in the sound categories.
Think about this- before American Sniper came into the picture, this was a BORING ASS year. Seriously there was nothing compelling, nothing that amazing. The Golden Globes proved this- look how unenthused the audience was. No standing ovations, everyone looking over it. PASSION is what American Sniper has- along with controversy, talk and prestige. The American public also has gone for this. It’s a political time right now in America- and yes, Selma deserved better- but the academy went for this one instead.
GO COOPER!
I thought I would go a check out American Sniper with my brother-in-law so that I could actually justify my dislike of its inclusion in many of the Oscar categories. It’s such a cliche ridden movie that will bring a tear to Red America. Afterward they will realize that it is a pretty boring movie and move on with their lives. The Academy will continue its decline into second-rate People’s Choice Awards.
Such a BAD movie considering it’s up for Best Picture and Best Actor… unbelievable.
If it won, it would rank up there with Crash, The Greatest Show on Earth, Oliver!, and Around the World in 80 Days as one of the Worst Ever.
I haven’t seen American Sniper yet and I don’t know who Chris Kyle is (I’m not American), so hopefully I will be able to judge the film on its merit without ang personal biases when I watch it on Thursday. I noticed something on Twitter today. I follow a lot of critics who have seen American Sniper many weeks ago (and didn’t like it), and every single one of them went on a mini-tirade or retweet frenzy about their strong feelings against the film. There was no such overwhelming hate sentiment when they first saw the film.
I just saw Birdman and it’s by far the favorite of the nominated films I’ve seen so far (have yet to see Imitation Game, Selma and American Sniper). I really will be bummed if Keaton loses the Oscar, he deserves it especially since my original pick Gyllenhaal wasn’t even nominated.
I think that’s just looking to fool yourself that the season is still interesting. Well it’s not, let’s face it. Boyhood is just too far in the lead. And if just so happens that American Sniper wins, then I loose all the respect I have left for the industry, after most of it was lost due to the DuVernay snub. It’s just a movie that’s quality makes it a surprising nominee. It’s bad.
@AJNRules: From where I’ve been sitting, the frontrunner status has never changed all season (and it isn’t changing now). It’s been Boyhood since the summer, and it’s still Boyhood. Sniper isn’t nominated for Best Director. Box office alone isn’t enough to overtake the leader (just ask the people who did Avatar).
I find it funny (also not haha funny) that the movie destroying Selma is about a lying racist psychopath.
Seems like front-runner status changes every day. First it was Boyhood, then it was The Imitation Game, and now American Sniper. Looks like we need to fasten our seatbelts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. XP
Does anybody else find it funny (Ironic funny, not ha ha funny) that this movie destroyed the BO on MLK Day weekend, while “Selma”, the film about MLK that has superior reviews and has people whining about Oscar snubs did average at best?
Shockingly massive opening. The entire industry is stunned. I really need to get off my ass and see this movie, the word of mouth seems great too among moviegoers.
Maybe, Free 🙂 I don;t feel the pulse of the awards as much. Redmayne may be too young for the Academy; at 33 he is however older than Adrien Brody when he surprised with the win. Like I said SAG will probably tip the scales. If Keaton doesn’t win there; i doubt his chances for the Oscar. ‘Theory’ doesn’t open here until next week; but it does look a lot like a classic oscar winning performance. I dunno; if I was the telecast producer; i’d leave Actor, until the 2nd last prize. It;s going to be interesting.
@Daveinprogress: I’d say it’s about 90% Keaton’s. Judging from reactions he’s received from various venues, I’d argue that he IS well-liked and respected. Ethan Hawke did a roundtable with him, and he basically said Keaton was his idol. Plus, I mean, he was fucking great in Birdman, and his speeches are only endearing him to more and more people.
The curious thing about Redmayne to me is how he ISN’T the frontrunner. An Oscar-baity movie with a protagonist who has a physical handicap? Should be catnip for Oscar voters, but Redmayne isn’t steamrolling through awards venues. Keaton has won most of them. Take Michael out of the picture, and this would probably be Colin Firth in The King’s Speech, but that’s now how it’s playing out.
Keaton’s the frontrunner, and it’s his to lose.
I’m getting a Nick Nolte or as has been suggested Mickey Rourke vibe. Problem is; do the two British academics cancel one another out? Again, no answer here. Bring on SAG (Bafta may help; maybe not)
It seems hypocritical to me for someone who runs a site dedicated to film awards to be so insulting to those who take note of box office results.
Box office results aren’t just for going ‘Woo! yeah that sniper movie dun shot all dem other films out of the water woo!’ It’s actually interesting to see how trends change and more importantly how they will effect the kinds of movies that get made. Gone Girls best actress oscar nomination and Maleficents technical nods will do absolutely nothing for getting more female centric films made, however the fact that they made terrific amounts of money most definitely will. Wether you like the film or not (I haven’t seen it yet, it doesn’t open here for a few weeks yet) it should be a cause of rejoice that a stand alone R rated movie aimed at adults is making as much money as super hero films. In fact this may well mean that of the three highest grossing films of 2014 only one (The Hunger Games) will be a sequel. That’s terrific news.
I’d say it’s much more important for many people to go and actually watch Selma than it is for it to receive more nominations, just as I’m really glad that earlier this year a decent amount of people actually did give The Grand Budapest Hotel a go.
It is sad that a films perceived success has gotten so heavily built around how much money it can make in 72 hours and frustrating how many of the people with power just make knee jerk decisions mostly based on trying to catch up to everyone else or just repeating everything they’ve done before, but once again that’s all the more reason to be excited when something like this happens.
Is Michael Keaton really such a given with the Academy? He isn’t Jeff Bridges (a likeable and hard working actor) and he isn’t John Wayne or Henry Fonda or iconic older actors previously unrewarded. Is his career that distinguished? Does his performance in Birdman on its own merits trump Cumberbatch or Redmayne? I don’t know the answers.
I HOPE they give this best picture over Borehood and that Cooper wins over Keaton. I just watched Sniper and Cooper out acts Keaton. However, it is more of a career thing to award Keaton. I see Sniper winning Picture, Actor and Sound categories.
“Besides where the fuck were inner demons with which Cooper was fighting?
Oh yes once he cared to think twice before shooting a kid in the street because he felt it’ll cause him some more sweaty dreams. Like the ones he had after killing one kid already. Wow big inner demon to fight! Then there was some pouting when Cooper finally came home and stayed his ass in some bar. Then he got his temper shooting on a dog.
The only demon I found in the film was Cooper himself.
[…]
American Sniper is nothing but some well edited gun fight scenes put together with a mindless man at its center.”
Exactly! Thank you!
Now we have a race! I haven’t seen SNIPER yet, but it seems like it’s peaking at the right time. It’s the only best picture candidate with a pulse at the box office. There’s a chance it could become the #1 movie of 2014, surpassing Guardians. People both red state and blue state are talking about it. Get ready for the news stories and articles and think pieces galore. The Academy was criticized for being out of touch on Thursday, and voters may take these criticisms to heart. SNIPER is the only film in the lineup with relevance and topicality, and it’s going to dominate the box office for the rest of January. BOYHOOD has better reviews, but it hasn’t made much of an impact in the mainstream. People outside the industry aren’t talking about it now. Maybe back in the summer, but not now.
This could all be speculation that amounts to nothing. BOYHOOD could continue to sweep. But I’m glad that things are heating up. There should be excitement in the Oscar race. All eyes are on the PGA now!
“He chose to do a Mo’nique and do zero campaigning”
He actually hasn’t done zero campaigning for AS. He did an interview on Howard Stern not too long ago (ironically, talking about how he thought a nomination wasn’t in the books because he had not precursors). For better or worse, Stern reaches a lot of people, and he LOVED the movie and Bradley, so his minions will likely follow suit.
If Bradley Cooper does win the Best Actor Oscar, it will be the first time in modern Oscar history that someone won the acting Oscar without having been nominated for at least something heading into the Big Night. Cooper wasn’t even nominated for Globe, SAG, BFCA, BAFTA, and he didn’t win a single critics’ prize (even a regional one) or even finish as an alternate. For those people who are tempted to haul out Marcia Gay Harden at this point, please remember that she won the NYFCC prize for Best Supporting Actress.
Of course, you could argue that if American Sniper becomes a juggernaut, which it pretty much is already, that some of these precedents could get tossed out the window. But the bigger AS becomes, the more there’s going to be blowback against it. I’m part of the camp who thinks that Cooper won’t win actor and the movie won’t win BP. Now if AS wins PGA, you’ll see me switching my tune pretty quickly. But I doubt it will.
Turan, Morgenstern and Corliss may like Sniper but the film has also gotten many mixed to bad reviews, too. What surpries me is the A+ Cinemascore.
Jonah Hill is a two time Oscar nominee. Does that make him a great actor? No.
That’s the movie which catches the zeitgeist. Not Gone Girl but American Sniper. Bad times.
Who knew that guy from “The Hangover” would go on and be a three-time Oscar nominated actor?
Please stop now. Cooper is not going to beat Keaton, Redmaye or Cumberbatch. He really is fourth is this race and was probably the 4th or 5th choice on the ballots. He’s not going to get the BAFTA, Brits are not going to vote for him. He’s not getting SAG.
I saw him in The Elephant Man. He gave a competent performance, nothing more. I like the guy, he works hard, I find him sincere. But he was far from great. It really was Alessandro Nivola who impressed on stage.
Well, this is news. Records-breaking over what I thought was just going to be a routine shoot’em up, rah-rah war picture. And to think this debuted the same day as “Selma” at the AFI fest in LA, and “Selma” got all the excitement and standing Os. And “American Sniper” was regarded with…well…a sort “Meh” response. And now look what’s happened! What was the difference? Well, “Sniper” was a finished film and Warner Bros. who know what they’re doing with an Oscar campaign, IMMEDIATELY started getting those screeners out to all and sundry. Paramount couldn’t because the film wasn’t “finished” yet. So sad, so sad. And they both debuted the same day. WHAT a difference!
And as far as Bradley Cooper is concerned, I was frankly SHOCKED, SHOCKED by his nomination. He chose to do a Mo’nique and do zero campaigning, because he is in New York starring on Broadway, in the VERY unusual part, for him, as the Elephant Man himself. And he’s superb in it He very well may get a Tony.
But Cooper has chosen to go the class-y was this year. No campaigning an BOOM! He gets nominated anyway. Could he upset Keaton/Redmayne? I wonder….I can’t believe he’s better in “AS” than he is in “Elephant Man.”
So it’s Kudos to Cooper year everywhere you look.
Like I’ve said before, I was pleasantly surprised by American Sniper. It was, from beginning to end, a very well-made, compelling film. Those calling it “jingoistic” or “Right-wing propaganda”, along with those on the Right that are hailing it as “pro-gun” or “pro-traditional-values”, have completely misread the film. That’s not entirely surprising, given the deplorable state of America’s comprehension skills. Notice that the film has gone over much better with experienced critics like Kenneth Turan, Joe Morgenstern, and Richard Corliss than with the less-experienced bloggers, who are inept as writers and even more inept as thinkers. (Yes, this is an elitist appeal to authority, but experience is crucial when analyzing works of cinema.) It could also be that those experienced critics perhaps critique from the view of Aestheticism originally espoused by people like Walter Pater and Oscar Wilde. That is to say, they mostly ignore the political aspect in the first place. Obviously, I would argue that American Sniper is indeed a character study, not some flag-waving patriot-piece. Its depiction of Kyle’s world-view (and the forces that shaped it) are hardly an endorsement of that view. In fact, the film offers several subtle counterpoints, whether it be the frightened look that Kyle’s mother wears at the beginning of the film as Kyle’s father indoctrinates him to violence, or the war-weary SEAL that questions Kyle and the war itself. Now, do I think this film deserves to win Best Picture? Absolutely not. Boyhood is last year’s bona fide masterpiece, but that doesn’t diminish American Sniper.
A few things: this film is pure propaganda. It’s not even a good piece of filmmaking. It’s trash. The performances are ridiculous. I didn’t believe Cooper for one second. But what really disgusted me is that this film is anti-human. It shouldn’t be nominated. It’s a shame. And finally with Cooper. They could make him look like an actor by giving him nominations but does anybody really believe he is an actor? The man can’t act.
I defer to those who have their fingers on the pulse with these matters; more than myself; but I don’t see AMPAS taking a u turn at this stage of the race. If it’s one thing that the Academy appears to mostly do, is reflect the rest of the prize giving of a given year. It’s very rare that they ‘do their own thing’. I’m not even sold on the idea that Bradley Cooper will swoop in and take Actor from the already 3 heavy weights in his category. If Copper was flanked just by older; already recognised actors ala Adrien Brody or Daniel Day Lewis; i would perhaps give him a shot, but not with the Keaton/Redmayne/Cumberbatch trio. But of course, I could be wrong.
Another a\ctor nominated in consecutive years was Bette Davis, who was nominated in FIVE consecutive years: 1938, 1939, 1940, 1941, and 1942. She won for 1938’s Jezebel (and that was her second win)..
@Sasha: Thanks 🙂
“Can’t wait to see it on Wednesday. I saw Incoherent Vice yesterday.”
Lol. Yeah, that’s how I’d describe it, too. I really hated Joanna Newsom’s voiceover narration.
@Daveylow: I 100% agree, that’s why I think it has the edge over Birdman. And, guess what I literally just watched (on HBO, no less) while I wrote this!
Sasha,
You’ve been right on this year’s Oscar race all along, but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater now! Sure, American Sniper has surpassed most expectations — and though I haven’t seen it yet — it still doesn’t seem like it could pass Boyhood up to win Best Picture. Even if it is the popular favorite in America.
I’m not lining up well with critical consensus this year. I saw Foxcatcher yesterday, and was disappointed. While I thought Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo was excellent, I thought Steve Carell gave a very one-note performance with no insight into John du Pont’s behavior. I was disappointed in Bennett Miller’s direction — the film didn’t have any of the passion that pulsated through Capote or Moneyball. And that gray, washed out cinematography drove me nuts. I thought the movie was OK, but it fell far short of my expectations. As I’ve indicated on these boards elsewhere, I was also unenthusiastic about both The Theory of Everything and The Grand Budapest Hotel.
I hope to see American Sniper and The Imitation Game this week, and Boyhood by the end of the month. Hopefully I can see Whiplash somehow before Oscar night.
Right now my favorite films of the year are Birdman, Gone Girl, and Selma.
A couple more comments: Bradley Cooper is clearly well-liked by the Academy, and him winning for a popular movie is not out of the realm of possibility. I’d like to see some data on the other 10 actors/actresses who received three nominations in three years to see how many didn’t win one in that period. Off the top of my head. Jack Nicholson won in 1975 after being nominated in 1973 and 1974. Jane Fonda won in 1978 and was also nominated in 1977 and 1979. Russell Crowe won in 2000 and was nominated in 1999 and 2001. William Hurt won in 1985 and was also nominated in 1986 and 1987. So there’s 4 of the other 10 times it has happened, and all of these had a win. Curious.
The last thing I want to throw out is how much I hate awarding Oscars because the person is “due”. I like to cling to the naïve idea that a winner will win because a majority of the voting body genuinely thinks they are the best of the year. I don’t know when I will get to see Still Alice, and I’m sure that Julianne Moore (an actress I admire) does a fine job even if the movie is dull as dishwater. Does it really surpass the performance of Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl, though? That was such a rich, memorable performance that it’s hard for me not to root for her over Moore. Haven’t seen Cotillard’s performance but feel it is probably deserving. Witherspoon and Jones are lucky to be at the party this year; it’s only because pickins were slim in the category.
Yeah, good luck with that. Only place the movie actually has a chance is in the sound categories, but even there, it’s likely that Interstellar will take both.
@RENO
If P.t. Anderson can’t win a screenplay Oscar for his much more revered and seemingly better movies he won’t win for “vice”. I love Anderson though so him getting any Oscar for any of his films would please me. I’d just much rather have it be for his next “twbb” quality film though.
The 2 Andersons could snag the 2 writing awards
Hey, it’s possible Sniper will get nothing on Oscar night. Its box office is its own reward.
I am willing to bet Anderson is getting Original Screenplay. The film is well liked and Anderson has been denied several times, though nominated before. The voters will want to award the film for more than just techs, this is the obvious category. The fact that it’s playing on HBO right now is only going to help.
This movie only had 43% of women buy tickets. However, that 43% would account for more tickets sold than plenty of other movies that actually catered to women. Women really love Bradley Cooper. Men really love war movies. Good job Warner Bros. and good job Sasha for expecting this. I thought $75 million was as high as it would get on opening weekend and I thought that was being generous.
Can’t wait to see it on Wednesday. I saw Incoherent Vice yesterday.
Yeah now that Ive seen the movie, Im “better” with Cooper being nominated.
Its Carell that Im still slightly irked about. A) Ive always considered it a Supporting role. and B) he likely took the spot of Gyllenhaal or Feinnes. Grrrrr.
The box office of this movie IS a huge story because I dont think there has ever been a wide release film (rated R or not) that has had opening box office projections be off by more than 40 millions dollars — it just doesnt happen. Hasnt happened ever. And now its definitely on track to make more than $300 million — possibly the highest totals of 2014. That is crazy and, something nobody would have guessed even a week ago. The fact that its a film aimed for adult moviegoers and not a younger demographic makes it even more noteworthy. Whatever your opinion of the film is, thats somethin’ else.
My opinion of the film? Politics aside, I though the film was … okay. Competent. Not bad. Not excellent. A tad too Hollywood-ish. I thought Cooper was very good and Sienna Miller did the best she could with the wife role. That said, there probably was little else they could have done with her role within this particular story. Its a cool story, but maybe not as cinematic as it could have been given the source material/memoirs,
I see Sniper winning Editing and possibly both Sounds.
I still see Boyhood winning Picture, Director and Supp. Actress. But thats only 3.
Birdman still should get Actor. Probably Cinematography, probably Writing.
But will Wes Anderson really go 0-for-3 when GBH will likely win Production Design, maybe Costumes, Make-Up, Score. I think GBH will be very popular in the votes.
The Imitation Game will either go big (picture, Actor, Writing, Score) or could just get Writing/Score. Maybe nothing.
Interstellar will likely get FX, maybe a Sound if Sniper doesnt snatch both.
Things are certainly shaken up by the Sniper box office, though.
There were movies with women depicted as human beings this year, they just aren’t all in the Oscar race: Belle, Tracks, Beyond the Lights, Pride, Obvious Child, The Skeleton Twins, Laggies, Pride, The Homesman, The Faith in Our Stars, Black and White, The Immigrant, The Face of Love, Le-Weekend, The Lunchbox, The Hundred Foot Journey, Miss Julie, Mommy, We Are the Best!, Words and Pictures. I saw them, they were all eligible for the Oscars this year, and there are good parts for women. But they just aren’t seen by a lot of people, for the most part.
Hated it.
There are several references to “savages.” The sniper leaves home and tells a 5 year old to “take care of the women at home.” There is a joke mocking gay marriage. And when someone questions the existence of god, he is made to look unstable.
Oh, and the one and only Kyle Smith RAVED about the film.
Cooper is not even in the same league as Fiennes, Gyllenhaal, Oyewolo, or Phoenix. Should not have gotten even close to a nomination. .
Of course the sheeple will eat this up.
I was the first one out of the theater. Pure propaganda. NOT the character study so many have been led to believe.
Never underestimate Warner. Warner is better at Oscar than anybody. Got Marty his, remember?
If Cooper wins an Oscar over Keaton, Cumberbatch and Redmayne it would be a major upset. I just can’t see it.
Bradley Cooper was just fantastic in this role. I was disappointed that he was nominated on Thursday but now I’m relieved that he made the list. Such a tough year for best actor.
To me, the movie tells the story as though everyone involved believed it was a just and righteous war.
I kinda didn’t pay attention to anyone but the Kyle character. I didn’t think we were supposed. So I didn’t get that anyone thought anything about it either way. I thought it was really just a meditation on what it is to be a sniper and what this particular sniper’s motivation was.
(SPOILERS) He just seemed to want to be a protector. He saw his country attacked on 9/11 and it motivated him to go and use a skill he had to protect as many soldiers as possible. It gave him purpose and he was good at it. It actually reminded me of Mariano Rivera. lol I always thought he was amazing. To do what he did with such precision and unshakable nerves, day after day, year after year, was something I could never do. I mean obviously killing people is a different thing entirely and that’s why we see the toll it took but that steady and consistent accuracy is fascinating. As far as his wife’s character, she wasn’t completely useless in the story but she was to him being a sniper. She had nothing to do with that and the movie in my opinion was really just about his time as a protector of soldiers. It didn’t matter what she was doing back home unless it was when he made a call in the middle of shooting people.
I’m going solely by the movie as a movie. Not about these people in real life.
Sasha you do know that most of your followers on this blog are men right?You do know that they wont like Gone Girl but will loooooooooooove American Sniper…I see and feel your lamentations and a lot of people on this blog really put you down,but i do see you make a lot of sense.Do not be distracted..Keep up the good work.This is a great site!
Much has been said about Eastwood December Surge. He has done well with nominations, but only been successful at supplanting a frontrunner *once* (MDB). And that frontrunner (Aviator) wasn’t all that great to begin with anyway.
I’m a Buddhist so I really didn’t want to see this film. I usually see all the Oscar movies. I may have to reconsider. Because if there’s a lot of killing, I don’t think I can watch it.
Isn’t this film likely to win the editing award, which may make audiences nervous while watching the Oscars since that often triggers other big awards?
I think Budapest will win screenplay, production design, costumes and possibly score.
I think Imitation Game will win adapted screenplay and possibly score. Though it hasn’t done great in precursors, I can’t see it going home empty because a lot of people like the film despite online chatter.
I agree with a poster on another thread that had Selma been released early in 2015, it’d be in the hunt for many more nominations. People would’ve been able to see it easily.
^^ Wasn’t Selma “rushed”?
So all recording-breaking context doesn’t matter at all to you? The January opening, the genre, the MPAA rating? The studio thought it’d have a 48 million opening; in reality, it’ll make 90+. It’s all the same?
We’re still talking about the big dick everyone saw coming. Shock and awe? Not to me.
You’re right, that is a role that is always underwritten in every biopic with a male protagonist
Women are no longer depicted as human beings in movies. They’re props to serve the protagonist. This worries me greatly, particularly when film critics and you readers here give the film a pass anyway. I can’t do that, being that I’m a woman, but plenty of women do because we’re conditioned to. It’s a scary time to be living through in that respect. I thought Sniper was a good movie, not great, though the war scenes are exceptionally good.
This is a great post, and tapping into something that is definitely happening.
The box office for Sniper is INCREDIBLE. The film, in my view, isn’t incredible, but it is very good and as good as anything Eastwood has done in years. Cooper and Miller are great, and say what you will about Miller’s character. but a lot of women in real life are like that. Try putting yourself into the perspective of a war bride. This is a very accurate depiction of what that relationship is like.
Finally, anyone who says the film is pro gun or pro war hasn’t seen it. It shows the chaos and confusion of war, as well as what happens to families when soldiers come home. Cooper’s character was patriotic and believed in what he was doing–but that is a very honest sentiment. That doesn’t mean the film is pro-gun or pro-war. It just means that it is pro-soldier. If you think there’s something wrong with that, then clearly you have little compassion.
GET OVER IT!
My three least favorite words in the English language strung together.
Thanks for your service to our country Miguel! I don’t think “offensive” is the right word. To me, the movie tells the story as though everyone involved believed it was a just and righteous war. I don’t see the war that way, though I know Chris Kyle did. I can roll with patriotic war movies about World War II but when you’re dealing with an unjust war like the quagmire in Iraq or Vietnam, I think it’s important to acknowledge that people see things differently. Kyle was such a raging conservative he called the Iraqis “savages” and couldn’t wait to go back and kill more. His quote not mine. He was a bizarre creepy guy hailed as a hero – that is what I found uncomfortable in watching the film. The sympathic portrait of him seemed weird to me. Plus the wooden female character…
I like your predictions, Free. My only comment would be Birdman likely wins original screenplay, especially if it isn’t winning picture or director.
I’m surprised it did that well. Not because it isn’t good. I just thought people weren’t going to the movies like that anymore.
I thought AMERICAN SNIPER was a great film. Of the nominated films I’m personally rooting for BIRDMAN which is the best of the ones I’ve seen.It’s the only one that makes my top ten of the year. I’d hate it if Bradley Cooper beat Michael Keaton but in any other year I’d be cool with him winning. He did a great job. Just not as great a job as Keaton who also deserves a career award. Cooper doesn’t deserve one of those. Yet.
I have to say this thing about not getting an Editing nod or a Director nod not being able to win Best Picture. I know that’s what history shows as a stumbling block to movies winning BP but that’s because there were only 5 nominees every year. So if you didn’t match up with those it was an obvious detriment. But since there are up to 10 nominees now that way of thinking should be thrown out. Otherwise every year you can’t have more than 5 true contenders. There’d be no point in having more than 5 nominees an I don’t think that was their intention in expanding BP. Since voting for a film in one category doesn’t automatically trigger votes in other categories people can do whatever they want. They could vote for BOYHOOD in Editing, BIRDMAN for Directing, and AMERICAN SNIPER for Best Picture and the space-time continuum would remain intact.
Also remember that the film that earns the second (2nd) most amount of money at the Box Office wins BP 49% of the time (roughly, over the past 30 years). With Sniper at #1, that puts Grant Budapest Hotel (which is currently 2nd) in a better spot to upset.
Just saw the film last night, and I agree with Miguel. It’s not Eastwood’s best work – even if he were nominated, he wouldn’t win. Comparing it to “The Hurt Locker” or “Zero Dark Thirty”, it pales by comparison. It was entertaining, don’t get me wrong, and Bradley Cooper is excellent, but I didn’t get any message out of it. I found the supposed “politics” confusing.
This article reminds me of last yr when you declared Hustle would win. I think Sniper isn’t a real contender.
Thanks Anna! I just don’t get how some of these people are getting this ultra-conservatism from a movie that wasn’t really all about that. It is about the HORRORS OF WAR and the effects of it on the men and women who witnessed it.
Bradley Cooper could definitely win for this. He gives an incredible performance – beautiful, internalized, never showy. I liked American Sniper so much more than I thought I would. This is not a pro-war movie. This is a “war is hell” movie that doesn’t make political statements or judgements. A very insightful and moving depiction of the toll war takes on our soldiers and their families. It doesn’t feel like the intent of this film is to entertain “gun toting war mongers”. Comments like that seem unnecessarily divisive.
I’d put it three because of Eastwood and the fact that it literally might make more money than all the other films combined…that might not matter as much as it used to but it still matters a little(at least I think it does)
^ @ Gage Creed: Precisely!
Out of curiosity, are people here saying SNIPER is really in the #3 slot for BP because they actually think that, or because that’s what Sasha is saying?
In terms of all 8 BP nominees winning something, this is how I see it playing out (as of today):
BOYHOOD – 3 – Best Picture, Director (Linklater), Supporting Actress (Arquette)
AMERICAN SNIPER – 3 – Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL – 3 – Original Screenplay, Art Direction, Costumes
BIRDMAN – 2 – Actor (Keaton), Cinematography
THE IMITATION GAME – 1 – Adapted Screenplay
SELMA – 1 – Song (maybe. I could see this going to “Lost Stars” from BEGIN AGAIN)
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING – 1 – Score
WHIPLASH – 1 – Supporting Actor (Simmons)
So, yes, I think it could happen this year
I remember people saying Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima became the frontrunner the second it was surprisingly nominated in 2006. Talk about jumping to conclusions. This year still seems completely predictable to me. Just because a movie is showered with unexpected nominations doesn’t mean it’s going to win. By that standard, we should assume Silver Linings Playbook would be our Best Picture winner in 2012. And just because a perceived frontrunner receives less nominations than expected, that, too, doesn’t mean it’s going to lose. By that standard, we should assume Argo’s chances were killed because of Affleck’s absence in Director.
I see ”Imitation Game” winning Adapted Screenplay and ”Birdman” winning Cinematography.
And though ”Theory” won Score at the Globes, I’m rooting for Desplat’s ”Budapest” score.
I want ”Boyhood” to win Editing, but war films do well: ”Pvt. Ryan,” ”Black Hawn Down,” ”Hurt Locker.”
I am a veteran, who actually didn’t agree with the reasons why we participated in this war to begin with. I am a liberal, yet I didn’t find anything offensive about American Sniper. If anything, they highlighted how Chris Kyle, himself, was a little out of touch with reality by seeming to be ok with the brutality of war, while everyone else around him was pretty much over it. When they finally showed him at the end of his last tour, sitting at a bar, finally wanting some quiet time to himself because the horrors of what he has seen had finally hit him- it was en emotional wallop of a scene in an otherwise flawed movie.
Liberals like us- if we choose to complain about this film because you presumed it’s pro-gun and pro-conservative means we’re no better than the republicans who complained endlessly about Zero Dark Thirty.
GET OVER IT!
A right-wing hero in a Hollywood movie, now that’s an oddity! We can’t blame the Acad for nominating a film that truly represents diversity in a town dominated by raging liberalism.
Does anybody feel like American Sniper is getting a lot more vitriol than it normally would’ve gotten because of a) its director’s politics and b) its success at the box office and with guilds and Academy nominations relative to Selma? A lot of it seems political—like people are p.oed that awards bodies are eschewing the civil rights film in favor of the Iraq War.
I agree with a poster on another thread that had Selma been released early in 2015, it’d be in the hunt for many more nominations. People would’ve been able to see it easily.
Re my previous comment about all best pic nominees getting awards: I thought Imitation Game might win Best Adapted Screenplay—that would be the bone they throw to that movie and Harvey’s campaign for it.
I do not think Sniper will pile up that many awards. Most will probably be Boyhood with 4: picture, director, supp. actress, editing. I could see Birdman and GBH each getting three.
I saw American Sniper it is very good but it’s 4th on my ballot if I could vote behind Boyhood, Birdman and Selma .
I hope Boyhood wins Editing . Let Gone girl go it was not on my top 20 list.
Yeah, Mark, I was too. All the more surprising to me when this one turned out to be so boring, insufferable and pointless…
I have not seen the film yet, but I hope the people who have opinions on it have actually seen it. I’m very anti-war, but was quite impressed with Clint’s other war films.
There’s no sign, Sniper is going to win. It has a strong opening weekend, but let’s see what the guilds will do. A few days ago Imitation Game was the possible spoiler for Best Picture (because of the Tyldum nomination).
Don’t buy it for a second. But we have to write about something, I guess…
I don’t see American Sniper as a serious threat to Boyhood at this point- if there’s a dark horse for Best Picture, it’s The Grand Budapest Hotel. But while Keaton is still the frontrunner for Best Actor, now Bradley Cooper has emerged as his top challenger.
“Now, every gun toting war monger in the country could be watching.” So, did you use these words to describe fans of Zero Dark Thirty, The Hurt Locker, and Saving Private Ryan?
Sasha, I actually would tend to agree with you on the “suffering wife” character, which is one of the reasons this isn’t my favorite movie up for best pic, however I don’t really know what they should have done with her character. It wasn’t her story but they couldn’t just cut the character out of the movie. You’re right, that is a role that is always underwritten in every biopic with a male protagonist, and if comparing this movie with a movie like Gone Girl is someone’s goal, American Sniper will come up short every time (full disclosure, I liked Gone Girl more than any movie up for best pic outside of Whiplash) . However, clearly that wasn’t the story American Sniper was telling. There are great movies waiting to be made from the Sienna Miller characters point of view, and if honestly think Eastwood could probably tell that story well too, but this wasn’t that movie. I don’t know, again I just feel that this was the story Eastwood was telling and he (and Cooper) did a great job telling it
This to me is like comparing dicks and super dicks. Yes it’s surprising that it’s THIS BIG! Wow, look at that GIANT THROBBING COCK! But in the end, it’s still a big dick, you know what I mean?
So all recording-breaking context doesn’t matter at all to you? The January opening, the genre, the MPAA rating? The studio thought it’d have a 48 million opening; in reality, it’ll make 90+. It’s all the same?
It feels more and more like we are out of touch. A movie glorifying death and war is appealing to large groups here, and even my liberal friends don’t want to see Selma or lincoln, it’s too “boring” or “preachy”, etc. We have the government we deserve
I really feel that Sasha was really out of touch with reality when she did say she wasn’t surprised about the 100 million opening.
This to me is like comparing dicks and super dicks. Yes it’s surprising that it’s THIS BIG! Wow, look at that GIANT THROBBING COCK! But in the end, it’s still a big dick, you know what I mean?
Sasha: I agree with you that the academy is out of touch. But how are they supposed to see that when America goes in droves into the pro gun pro war movie and, on MLK weekend of all weekends, doesn’t really go for Selma.
🙁
Did you know that this could be one of the rare years where all of the best pic nominees take home an Oscar? Last year only 3 of the 9 did, right? Gravity, 12 Years, Her. I could see it shaking out that way if Sniper takes sound, Imitation Game gets screenplay, and Theory gets score.
Starting from bottom to top:
Selma – best song
Whiplash – supporting actor (maybe screenplay)
Theory – Score, maybe actor
Imitation – (can’t think of one yet)
Budapest – production design, cinematography, maybe costumes
Birdman – screenplay, maybe actor
Sniper – sound, sound editing, editing, maybe screenplay, maybe actor, maybe picture
Boyhood – director, supporting actress, probably picture
Sasha: I agree with you that the academy is out of touch. But how are they supposed to see that when America goes in droves into the pro gun pro war movie and, on MLK weekend of all weekends, doesn’t really go for Selma.
There’s much to the theory, in my view, that it’s not solely the Academy’s fault– they’re just reflecting a broader issue with our society. That doesn’t absolve the Academy but does tell us that the solution may not lie at their doorstep.
Thanks Ryan,
I really feel that Sasha was really out of touch with reality when she did say she wasn’t surprised about the 100 million opening. This film actually focused more on the inner demons that these veterans have to face, and it wasn’t just about action and violence- like Lone Survivor. FYI Lone Survivor was considered a massive success and it only opened less than 50 million last January.
Stevie – the sad lament for me is that we’re now living in an age where Sienna Miller’s paper thin joke of a character gets a total pass form male views because they don’t see her. She’s just a prop. How sad. How terribly terribly sad.
I did not like the film very much. It is a great story that needs to be told, but it needed a different director. The scenes that were supposedly in Iraq felt like it was just in a Hollywood studio. I wish Kathryn Bigelow directed the movie because she already made two films about this war that will stand the test of time, and I really felt that this story would have been the most personal one.
BUT, I must say that BRADLEY COOPER was QUIETLY ASTONISHING in the role. He’s the one reason this movie has to be seen. As a veteran myself, I could tell you that he fully captures the obsessive patriotism that some people in the military possess, and how they lack the capability of understanding if others don’t feel the same way. It was a heartbreaking performance that deserves to be in the top five along with Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, and if it were my choice- Jake Gylenhaal.
Everybody who expected a $100 Million opening weekend for an R-rated movie without capes in it, is out of the touch with the Hollywood reality. This is one of the most impressive box office performances of the decade.
Yes, Richardson, I think I am going to predict Sniper for both sound categories just to be on the safe side. It might be 1 for it and 1 for interstellar, but I’d rather play it safe. Some people say the sound on Interstellar was lacking at IMAX theaters.
“American Sniper” for editing is interesting, but I will play it safe and stick with Boyhood, the traditional precursor for best pic.
It seems January has become Middle East War Movie Month. Zero Dark Thirty started the trend two years ago when it grossed over $90 million. Lone Survivor came out last year and broke January records on its way to $125 million and now American Sniper comes out of the gate on par with the last Spider-man movie. Audiences are eating it up, especially when the focus is on the soldiers and their being heroes. I don’t know how many more books there are out there regrading that timeframe and with the focus on soldiers killing bad guys, but they will all been made into movies and soon.
I haven’t seen this movie yet. Selma just got released where I live last week and I saw it a few days ago. I think it’s sad that a movie that is far more important to American history than Sniper or Unbroken can’t bring in a comparable amount of people. I don’t begrudge the former films’ success as much as I lament the lack of interest in something as important as Selma. It will be interesting to see how its box office influences voters who didn’t seem to care about box office grosses when they nominated the eight films last week.
“The film could do more than $200 million.”
It will easily do more than $300 million.
God, I hope Gillians wins the WGA. Even more so than before. She already won the Critics’ Choice and most of the other critics’ awards. It would be such a great FU to the Academy, and it would be glorious.
@JULIEF
Good point about all 8 BP nominees being able to win at least 1 award. “American Sniper” is the hardest one to gauge, but it’s sound nominations are a decent bet. At least one of the two, perhaps splitting w/ “Interstellar”.
That would be a welcome change of pace to spread the love. 1st time since BP expansion that it seems possible.
It’s time get the #JusticeForSLP campaign back into high gear!
$90m is an amazing (wide) opening weekend. Especially for an Oscar BP nominee. I think the only other one that has made fore than that is “Toy Story 3” and that took me a while to think of. Not to mention that “TS3” had a massive built in audience to start with and is a kids/Pixar movie which means big bucks no matter the film.
I’m excited to finally see “American Sniper” this week. I’m just hoping it lives up to the it’s current expectations.
I have not seen American Sniper yet, but I doubt it will contend seriously for best picture. Sound categories, yes. Right now I have Sniper for sound and Boyhood for editing. I don’t think American Sniper fans will watch the Oscars just because they loved the movie. My husband will love American Sniper and while he will patiently listen to me talk about Oscar predictions for the next 33 days, he will NOT be interested enough to watch the ceremony, and I’m sure he’s a decent representative of the demographic.
Did you know that this could be one of the rare years where all of the best pic nominees take home an Oscar? Last year only 3 of the 9 did, right? Gravity, 12 Years, Her. I could see it shaking out that way if Sniper takes sound, Imitation Game gets screenplay, and Theory gets score.
Saw the movie Friday night, and I’m sorry but the movie really was excellent. Did it gloss over the legit lies Kyle told in his book? Yes, but as I have read on many sites, including this one many times, it’s a movie, not a documentary…it had a story to tell and, like many other times in his career, Eastwood told the story extremely well. It’s not my favorite movie of the year, or my favorite movie up for best picture (that’s whiplash, if anyone cared) but it’s a worthy best picture nomination, and if it won I doubt anyone, outside of people who can’t get over who Chris Kyle was (which is understandable I suppose) , would look back at it like Crash or The Artist.
I still do not think this will win, Boyhood is still the major front runner with Birdman second, but this puts it at number three