The Writers Guild will announce their winners tomorrow AM. Where in previous years the WGA’s rules disqualified many of the writers who were up for Oscar nominations, this year, there doesn’t seem to be too much of a disconnect, with the exception of Selma and The Theory of Everything, neither of which are eligible for WGA nods.
The WGA can sometimes spring a wild card into the race. In that way, we kind of look for surprise but in the end, find that the consensus is kind of the consensus.
Still, since it’s such a strange year I don’t know how this thing is going to play out. But I’ll go with these as predictions:
Original Screenplay
Wes Anderson, Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro Inarritu et al, Birdman Not eligible
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Alt. JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Adapted Screenplay
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Paul Thoman Anderson, Inherent Vice
Nick Hornby, Wild
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Alt. Coens et al, Unbroken
How about you Oscar watchers? What am I missing?
won WGA | won Oscar
*nominated for Best Pic
+won Best Pic
2013 | |
Her | Her* |
American Hustle | American Hustle* |
Blue Jasmine | Blue Jasmine |
Dallas Buyers Club | Dallas Buyers Club* |
Nebraska | Nebraska* |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips* |
August: Osage County | 12 Years a Slave+ |
Before Midnight | Before Midnight |
Lone Survivor | Philomena* |
The Wolf of Wall Street | The Wolf of Wall Street* |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook* |
2012 | |
Original | Original |
Zero Dark Thirty | Zero Dark Thirty* |
Flight | Flight |
Looper | Amour* |
The Master | Django Unchained* |
Moonrise Kingdom | Moonrise Kingdom |
Adapted | |
Argo | Argo+ |
Life of Pi | Life of Pi* |
Lincoln | Lincoln* |
The Perks of being a Wallflower | Beasts of the Southern Wild* |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook* |
2011 | |
Win Win | The Artist* |
Bridesmaids | Bridesmaids |
50 50 | Margin Call |
Young Adult | A Separation |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris* |
Adapted | Adapted |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | The Ides of March |
Moneyball | Moneyball* |
The Help | Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy |
The Descendants | The Descendants* |
Hugo | Hugo* |
2010 | 2010 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Black Swan | The King’s Speech+ |
Please Give | Another Year |
The Fighter | The Fighter* |
The Kids Are All Right | The Kids Are All Right* |
Inception | Inception* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Social Network | The Social Network* |
127 Hours | 127 Hours* |
True Grit | True Grit* |
I Love You Philip Morris | Winter’s Bone* |
The Town | Toy Story 3* |
2009 | 2009 |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker+ |
A Serious Man | A Serious Man* |
500 Days of Summer | Up* |
The Hangover | The Messenger |
Avatar | Inglourious Basterds* |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air* |
Crazy Heart | In the Loop |
Star Trek | District 9* |
Precious | Precious* |
Julie & Julia | An Education* |
2008 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Milk | Milk* |
Burn After Reading | Frozen River |
The Visitor | Happy-Go-Lucky |
The Wrestler | In Bruges |
Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Wall-E |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Doubt | Doubt |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon* |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button* |
The Dark Knight | The Reader* |
2007 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Diablo Cody, Juno* | Diablo Cody, Juno* |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages | Tamara Jenkins, The Savages |
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl | Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl |
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up | Brad Bird, Ratatouille |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men | Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+ |
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Sarah Polley, Away from Her |
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac | Christopher Hampton Atonement* |
2006 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Babel | Babel* |
The Queen | The Queen * |
Stranger than Fiction | Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine * |
United 93 | Pan’s Labyrinth |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Departed | The Departed+ |
Thank You for Smoking | Notes on a Scandal |
Little Children | Little Children |
Borat | Borat |
Devil Wears Prada | Children of Men |
2005 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
40 Year Old Virgin | Syriana |
Crash+ | Crash+ |
Cinderella Man | Match Point |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night * |
Squid and the Whale | Squid and the Whale |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Capote | Capote* |
Constant Gardener | Constant Gardener |
History of Violence | History of Violence |
Syriana | Munich* |
2004 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Aviator | The Aviator* |
Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Garden State | Vera Drake |
Hotel Rwanda | Hotel Rwanda |
Kinsey | The Incredibles |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Before Sunset | Before Sunset |
Mean Girls | Finding Neverland* |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby+ |
Sideways | Sideways* |
Motorcycle Diaries | Motorcycle Diaries |
2003 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bend it Like Beckham | The Barbarian Invasions |
Dirty Pretty Things | Dirty Pretty Things |
In America | In America |
Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
The Station Agent | Finding Nemo |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
American Splendor | American Splendor |
Cold Mountain | City of God |
ROTK | ROTK* |
Mystic River | Mystic River * |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit* |
2002 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Far From Heaven | Far From Heaven |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York* |
Antwone Fisher | Talk to Her |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Greek Wedding |
Bowling for Columbine | Y Tu Mama Tambien |
Chicago | Chicago+ |
The Hours | The Hours* |
About Schmidt | The Pianist* |
Adaptation | Adaptation |
About a Boy | About a Boy |
2001 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Gosford Park* | Gosford Park* |
The Man Who Wasn’t There | Amelie |
Monster’s Ball | Monster’s Ball |
Moulin Rouge | Memento |
The Royal Tenenbaums | The Royal Tenenbaums |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Black Hawk Down | Shrek |
Bridget Jones’s Diary | In the Bedroom* |
Ghost World | Ghost World |
The Fellowship of the Ring | Fellowship of the Ring* |
2000 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Erin Brockovich | Erin Brockovich* |
Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
Best In Show | Gladiator+ |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot |
You Can Count On Me | You Can Count On Me |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Chocolat | Chocolat* |
High Fidelity | O Brother Where Art Thou? |
Traffic | Traffic* |
Wonder Boys | Wonder Boys |
1999 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Being John Malkovich | Being John Malkovich |
Magnolia | Magnolia |
The Sixth Sense | The Sixth Sense* |
Three Kings | Topsy-Turvy |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules* |
Election | Election |
The Insider | The Insider* |
October Sky | The Green Mile* |
The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Talented Mr. Ripley |
1998 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bulworth | Bulworth |
The Opposite of Sex | Life Is Beautiful * |
Shakespeare In Love* | Shakespeare In Love+ |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan* |
The Truman Show | The Truman Show |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Gods and Monsters | Gods and Monsters |
A Civil Action | The Thin Red Line* |
Primary Colors | Primary Colors |
A Simple Plan | A Simple Plan |
Out Of Sight* | Out Of Sight |
WINNERS CHART
+Won Best Picture
*nominated for Best Pic
WGA | OSCAR
2008: Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Milk | Milk* |
2007: No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men+ |
Juno | Juno* |
2006: The Departed | The Departed+ |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine* |
2005:Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Crash | Crash+ |
2004: Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Sideways | Sideways* |
2003: Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
American Splendor | Return of the King+ |
2002: The Hours* | The Pianist* |
Bowling for Columbine | Talk to Her |
2001: A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Gosford Park | Gosford Park* |
2000: Traffic | Traffic* |
You Can Count on Me | Almost Famous |
1999: American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Election | The Cider House Rules* |
1998:Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love+ |
Out of Sight | Gods and Monsters |
1997: L.A. Confidential | L.A. Confidential* |
As Good as it Gets | Good Will Hunting* |
1996: Sling Blade | Sling Blade |
Fargo | Fargo* |
1995: Braveheart | The Usual Suspects |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility* |
1994: Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump+ |
Four Weddings/Funeral | Pulp Fiction* |
1993: Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List+ |
The Piano | The Piano* |
1992: The Crying Game | The Crying Game * |
The Player | Howards End* |
1991: The Silence of the Lambs | The Silence of the Lambs+ |
Thelma and Louise | Thelma and Louise |
1990: Dances with Wolves | Dances with Wolves+ |
Avalon | Ghost* |
1989: Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy+ |
Crimes and Misdemeanors | Dead Poets Society* |
1988: Dangerous Liaisons | Dangerous Liaisons* |
Bull Durham | Rain Man+ |
1987: Roxanne | The Last Emperor+ |
Moonstruck | Moonstruck* |
1986: A Room with a View | A Room with a View* |
Hannah and Her Sisters | Hannah and her Sisters* |
1985: Witness | Witness* |
Prizzi’s Honor | Out of Africa+ |
1984: The Killing Fields | Amadeus+ |
Broadway Danny Rose | Places in the Heart* |
1983: Tender Mercies | Tender Mercies* |
Reuben, Reuben | Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: Missing | Missing* |
Tootsie | Gandhi+ |
1981: Reds | Chariots of Fire+ |
On Golden Pond | On Golden Pond * |
Rich and Famous | |
Arthur | |
1980:Ordinary People | Ordinary People+ |
Airplane, Private Benjamin | |
Melvin and Howard | Melvin and Howard |
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
Breaking Away | Breaking Away* |
The China Syndrome, Being There | |
1978: Midnight Express | Midnight Express* |
Coming Home | Coming Home* |
Heaven Can Wait | |
Movie, Movie | |
1977: Annie Hall | Annie Hall+ |
Julia | Julia* |
The Turning Point, Oh, God | |
1976: All the President’s Men | All The President’s Men* |
Network | Network* |
Pink Panther Strikes Again | |
1975: One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
Dog Day Afternoon | Dog Day Afternoon* |
The Sunshine Boys | |
Shampoo | |
1974: Godfather Part II | Godfather Part II+ |
Chinatown | Chinatown* |
Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz | |
Blazing Saddles | |
1973: A Touch of Class | The Exorcist* |
Save the Tiger, Paper Moon | The Sting+ |
Serpico | |
1972: The Godfather | The Godfather+ |
The Candidate | The Candidate |
What’s Up, Doc? Cabaret | |
1971: The French Connection | The French Connection+ |
The Hospital | The Hospital |
Kotch; Sunday, Bloody, Sunday | |
1970: Patton | Patton+ |
M*A*S*H | M*A*S*H* |
I Never Sang for My Father, The Out-of Towners | |
1969: Midnight Cowboy | Midnight Cowboy+ |
Butch Cassidy | Butch Cassidy/Sundance Kid * |
Goodbye, Columbus; Bob, Ted, Carol and Alice | |
1968:Lion in Winter | The Lion in Winter* |
The Producers | The Producers |
Funny Girl, Odd Couple | |
1967: The Graduate | In the Heat of the Night+ |
Bonnie and Clyde | Guess Who’s Coming… * |
Thoroughly Modern Millie | |
1966: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolfe? | A Man for All Seasons+ |
The Russians are Coming | A Man and a Woman |
1965: A Thousand Clowns | Dr. Zhivago* |
The Sound of Music, The Pawnbroker | Darling* |
1964: Becket | Becket |
Dr. Strangelove, Mary Poppins | Father Goose |
1963: Hud | Tom Jones+ |
Lillies of the Field | How the West Was Won |
1962: The Kill a Mockingbird | To Kill a Mockingbird * |
That Touch of Mink, Music Man | Divorce Italian Style |
1961: the Hustler | Judgment at Nuremberg |
Breakfast at Tiffany’s, West Side Story | Splendor in the Grass |
1960: The Apartment | The Apartment+ |
Elmer Gantry | Elmer Gantry |
The Bells are Ringing | |
1959: The Diary of Anne Frank | Room at the Top * |
Some Like it Hot, Five Pennies | Pillow Talk |
1958: Gigi | Gigi+ |
The Defiant Ones | The Defiant Ones |
Me and the Colonel | |
1957: 12 Angry Men | Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
Love in the Afternoon | Designing Women |
Les Girls | |
1956: Around world/80 Days | Around world/80 Days+ |
The King and I | The red Balloon |
Friendly Persuasion | |
1955: Marty | Marty+ |
Mr. Roberts | Interrupted Melody |
Love Me/Leave Me | |
1954: On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront+ |
Sabrina, Seven Brides/Seven Bros. | The Country Girl |
1953: From Here to Eternity | From Here to Eternity+ |
Lili, Roman Holiday | Titanic |
1952: High Noon, The Quiet Man | Lavender Hill Mob |
Singing in the Rain | Bad and Beautiful |
1951: An American in Paris | An American in Paris+ |
A Place in the Sun | A Place in the Sun* |
Father’s Little Dividend | |
1950: All About Eve | All About Eve+ |
Sunset Boulevard | Sunset Boulevard * |
Broken Arrow, Annie Get Your Gun | |
1949: All the King’s Men | All the King’s Men+ |
A Letter to Three Wives, on the Town | Battleground* |
1958: The Snake Pit | Treasure of the Sierra Madre* |
Sitting Pretty, Easter Parade |
I don’t think it’ll be nominated in the end, but still, I think “The Lego Movie” should be in the strong possibilities shortlist, in either cathegory, I’d put it in Original, but chances in Adapted would be bigger, for the win.
“Snowpiercer” should be a contender, in case screeners have reached the right people. One of the best adapted screenplays in a lot of time. Specially, since it builds up a whole poetic allegory beyond the original source (as I have understood).
It’s painful to see, “The Poseidon Adventure” wasn’t even nominated by the WGA or any other awards for its great, marvelous screenplay that turned a disaster movie into a deeply moving and poignant analysis on human being and our relationship with religion and faith. It’s odd to check out that “Airplane!” deservingly won the WGA, but in a cathegory “Comedy adapted from other media”, in which they also nominated the heavily dramatic “Empire Strikes Back” (AS A COMEDY!!!), and that, “Airplane!” went on to be completely ignored in the 1980’s Oscars. Neither the screenplay, neither the score, neither the film itself got the nom… time still hails it as one of the top 10 comedies ever made, but it seems, that’s not enough for Oscar!
If Birdman is ineligible, it must be replaced for A Most Violent Year.
Given all of the ineligible titles, this one seems pretty easy to call, no? I hope there’s a surprise somewhere, but alas:
ORIGINAL: Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler, Whiplash
ADAPTED: American Sniper, Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, Wild
“Crap Nightcrawler! How could I forget that….”
Like. 😀
How about INTO THE WOODS? It seems that musicals tend to be forgotten in the writing departments, when it comes to predicting, yet at least the Academy nominate them from time to time. And INTO THE WOODS is a damn good adaptation – even if you miss a few songs. But I do not know if it qualities to Writers Guild – but these days who cares? When neither BIRDMAN nor THEORY OF EVERYTHING qualifies, the rules become slightly ridiculous 🙂
My WGA predictions:
#Original Screenplay
– The Grand Budapest Hotel
– Whiplash
– Nightcrawler
– Boyhood
– Foxcatcher
(Alt: Interstellar.)
(Just in case: If Birdman somehow happened to become eligible, then in my prediction Foxcatcher would be out, Birdman in, (and possibly placed right below Hotel), Interstellar remaining an alternative to any of the first five.)
#Adapted Screenplay
– The Imitation Game
– Inherent Vice
– Gone Girl
– American Sniper
– Wild
(Alt: Still Alice [Initially, it was in lieu of Wild but I’ve changed my mind].)
If Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler don’t both get nominated tomorrow, I wonder if that will portend which of Gyllenhaal and Carell will be excluded (if not both).
“So for the WGA, Whiplash is in original but for the Oscars it’ll be under adapted?”
That, my friend, is what they called ‘the theory of everything’
So for the WGA, Whiplash is in original but for the Oscars it’ll be under adapted?
Let me see now, Selma is out of the ACE, SAG, PGA, now WGA-now I’m scared of the DGA. At least the Song was eligible.
I agree with both of your 5’s, Sasha
As usual, most of the good screenplays have gone on strike.
Their nominations each year betray the fact that the WGA generally only watches ten films per year and just nominated them, so I’ll play it safe and say:
Original
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Adapted
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Still Alice
Wild
Wait, why are Selma and Theory of Everything not eligible? Seems like Selma is getting shut out of the guilds, just like Interstellar. I blame Paramount the not sending out screeners, but in the case of Selma I’m not rooting for it as the underdog to win the whole damn thing despite the smear campaigning and whatever else is going on…
Swap Foxcatcher with Nightcrawler and we have the same predictions.
Crap Nightcrawler! How could I forget that….
Shit, just saw Theory isn’t eligible. Never mind, then.
Nightcrawler gets in for Original. Swap that for Foxcatcher and make that, not AMVY, your alternate and that looks good to me. I’d also swap Wild for Theory Of Everything (not if I had a vote, mind you, but for prediction’s sake).