66% of our readers so far predict Richard Linklater to win, followed by Alejandro G. Inarritu. Do you agree?
Meanwhile, over at Gold Derby just two pundits, Jenelle Reilly and Anne Thompson are predicting Alejandro G. Inarritu to win for Birdman, while everyone else is predicting Linklater.
Last year, the DGA did not predict the Best Picture winner because there was a crazy agreed-upon split happening throughout the season. Cuaron would take director and 12 Years a Slave would take Picture. This mirrored In the Heat of the Night winning Picture and Mike Nichols winning Director for The Graduate. That kind of split has only happened twice and in both cases a bravura director and a socially conscious picture were paired. But 2014 is not like that. There is no agreed-upon split yet. What you’re seeing so far is something a little reminiscent of 2010 when The Social Network won the critics but the PGA took the race in an entirely different direction. What the DGA decides tonight will determine whether yes, it is 2010 all over again, or no, it is going to maybe be a little more like Little Miss Sunshine winning PGA and SAG but then losing DGA to Scorsese and then losing Picture and Director at the Oscars, when the Departed won big.
Boyhood is obviously not The Departed. Big Hollywood likes Big Hollywood movies and other than American Sniper, Birdman’s about as big Hollywood as you’re like to get with the Best Picture race.
The Oscar for Best Director can sometimes lend surprises but it’s harder to find a surprise winner at the DGA – it hardly ever happens because they are such a massive group. A massive group tasked with finding best this year is interesting because it probably splits up all over the place. The DGA has five and no preferential ballot but the five films will each have their supporters. All five.
What win will take the race in what direction?
Boyhood – stays the course, will win Director — Picture still open-ended but most likely Boyhood.
Precedent: Martin Scorsese won Best Director for The Departed at the Globes, at the Critics Choice (with Picture), and with the New York Film Critics — Linklater won those also. Pic lost PGA and SAG. Precedent: The Departed
Birdman – Birdman will likely take Director and probably Picture
Precedent: The King’s Speech, which won PGA and SAG.
The Imitation Game – Totally unprecedented win but would mean Imitation Game is suddenly more popular than anyone thought.
Precedent: Maybe like Ridley Scott winning for Gladiator – then the movie winning Picture but someone else winning Director.
American Sniper – total game-changer. Sniper can only win Picture because Eastwood is not nominated at the Oscars for Director. Precedent: Argo for the win, Apollo 13 and The Color Purple for the loss.
The Grand Budapest Hotel
If it suddenly wins DGA it would be like any film that won nothing previously. No real precedent for its win since 2000 at least but like The Imitation Game you could say Ridley Scott.
Each choice represents a different type of voter. For some reason, Clint Eastwood keeps calling my name when I look at that list, not just because Sniper is so popular all the sudden, but because he’s is his 80s and had this kind of success. That is my No Guts, No Glory pick. My prediction remains the safe choice — and the one I think is most deserved – Linklater.
Here is a quickie contest to replace the one that got trashed. If you entered and have your return receipt make sure to keep track to see if you won or not.
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
“The Oscar for Best Director can sometimes lend surprises but it’s harder to find a surprise winner at the DGA”
What this fails to take into account is that Inarritu winning is by no means a surprise, given how the precursors had gone.
“because he’s is his 80s and had this kind of success.”
And what THIS fails to take into account is that, had they wanted to award him for that, he would have been nominated for the Oscar and at least SOMETHING else besides that (he has been nominated nowhere else, with the major precursors, just like the film. It would have shown SOMEWHERE. Affleck actually won some stuff before he won the DGA… The chances were ZERO, and the result, while not confirming it, necessarily, certainly doesn’t make it any less clear…
“Reminiscent of when most people were predicting Brokeback Mountain for the Oscar save a couple of nutjobs… who eventually turned out to be right.”
I was one of those nut jobs… 🙂
“All things considered, a Boyhood win is probably best case scenario for all involved, including us Oscar watchers.”
Speak for yourself!… (Though, of course, it would also be far from the worst case scenario, even though it would mean Birdman didn’t get it.)
“Whereas, again, aside from the idea and some pretty good editing, there just isn’t much there in Boyhood to justify a Linklater win here”
I’ve always thought the same thing. I mean, while I can see the argument for Boyhood to win BP, editing, acting awards, even screenplay, maybe, the direction itself doesn’t strike me as anything sensational, not compared to the other best movies this year, in that respect. (Birdman, Whiplash, Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Selma etc.)
“Birdman winning would seal best picture I’d say.”
Only of Boyhood loses the BAFTA as well, in a few hours’ time… and even then an upset would still be kind of possible…
“obviously the stats are behind Inarritu for the win (PGA + SAG has almost always led to the DGA win as well)”
Yeah, but sample size is small, so let’s make like Alan and just ignore that!… 🙂
“Boyhood is not a Motion Picture it is an after school special filmed over 12 years as a desperate gimmick by a “C” grade director.”
That’s a serious exaggeration… he’s a great director, and Boyhood is a very good movie, to say the least!
Birdman just did it!
And women rule TV awards! 😀
“The Academy represents experienced sophisticated artists who will pick the Best Picture to represent us to the World.”
I guess this statement alone shows the naivety of this guy. From time to time these retards do show up. He’ll probably jump off a building too when The Imitation Game loses.
Stephen, they’re handing out awards right now. But there’s like a dozen categories from TV to commercials. We’ll be lucky if they get to the Big One around 1AM EST or so.
Boyhood will lose to “The Imitation Game” for Best Picture. Boyhood is not a Motion Picture it is an after school special filmed over 12 years as a desperate gimmick by a “C” grade director. The Academy represents experienced sophisticated artists who will pick the Best Picture to represent us to the World. Boyhood isn’t even close to Best Picture. Can you really put Boyhood in the same category as “Schindler’s List”? Seriously?
Submitted Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu as my prediction out of pure cynicism (though I like “Birdman” just fine), but I’m really hoping Richard Linklater can pull this win out since he deserves kudos for orchestrating a gamble of such unprecedented proportions (as did Inarritu, though his directorial achievement is rooted more in style than scope).
Believe to or not, I’m sensing it’s Linklater’s. As I’ve said, he’s a hellava nice guy. A rare thing in Hollywood. And giving ANOTHER DGA to one of the Three Amigos? That may be too of a too much. Muchas muchas.
And I for one KNEW “The King’s Speech” was going to do what it did from Day One at TIFF. And told Colin Firth and Tom Hooper as much. Hooper named me their Oscar Messenger. And the name stuck. And the rest is herstory.
BTW, what time tonight will they be announcing? It’s usually WAAAAY late EST.
I’m predicting Linklater, but still unsure about Academy award. My mind would be well challenged if anybody but Innaritu or Linklater wins. Eastwood winning would certainly turn it all on its head, but i don’t believe that would translate to Oscar. Likewise Anderson and Tyldum.
Should Innaritu win here, depending on BAFTA’s outcome, does Birdman stands well placed for BP/BD at the Academy Awards? Could those crazy kids go for this nutty but clever movie? Is a ‘Bird’ in the hand worth the two big prizes in the Oscar bush.
BUT, a Linklater win here does mean it probably scores likewise with AMPAS. My guess is that if they love Linklater, they love Boyhood for BP too.
Birdman feels to me, less of a sure thing, but the results of this and the British tomorrow will firm up the predictions – maybe.
Want Birdman but predicting Boyhood for DGA. Birdman winning would seal best picture I’d say.
This is not preferential like PGA and Oscar. Don’t know what that means
Sasha,
Good points. 1967 was my first year watching the Oscars. I was a few weeks shy of 14. But I still don’t understand that agreed-upon split for Nichols and THE GRADUATE. Was it because of the out-of-nowhere blockbuster box office for THE GRADUATE? Was it that plus a make-up for WHO’S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOOLF the year before? Surely, there was no love for THE GRADUATE itself, or they would have managed Best Cinematography for Robert Surtees. The Oscar for Burnett Guffey was one of two that BONNIE AND CLYDE won, and Guffey was an old-guard cameraman whom Penn and Beatty had to fight every step of the way, not a willing innovator like Surtees (who was also nominated for the strictly business DOCTOR DOLITTLE the same year).
Wasn’t 2000 also an agreed-upon split. It was agreed that Ridley Scott wouldn’t win Best Director while GLADIATOR possibly would win. I remember the late Damien Bona on another site proclaiming something close to “As everybody knows, Ridley Scott is a hack” (Would if he didn’t keep proving that announcement correct.) It’s just that no one could quite agree on who would benefit from the Director split. No one knew what the Soderbergh double-nomination would mean. I was convinced at the time that the DGA went to Ang Lee only because the voters were convinced that Soderbergh would split the vote (And perhaps he actually did). Back when there was time for formations like this to take hold, Soderbergh’s supporters in the Academy apparently did get behind him for TRAFFIC rather than ERIN BROCKOVICH, and perhaps Lee and Scott did cancel each other out. However, nobody but nobody was predicting that Ridley Scott would win Best Director, even if GLADIATOR won. So I guess that’s an agreed-upon split too. They are still rare. (Was AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS/George Stevens, GIANT in 1956, the last split before 1967, one of these as well?)
Anything other than Innaritu winning will mean a wide open Oscar night, so I’m hoping that would happen.
Ridley Scott didn’t win the DGA in 2000. Ang Lee did. 🙂
Hey-what time do DGA roll out the awards this year?
I want wes Anderson to win the dga. Gbph was a great phenemeonal film. Wes Anderson is a wonder in the film world. Linklaters done one blockbuster hit the 2003 comedy school of rock.
Wes has done some pheneomeonal movies Rushmore, grand Budapest hotel, the life aquatic
His contribution to the film industry is insightful, artistic and quirky
Well, obviously the stats are behind Inarritu for the win (PGA + SAG has almost always led to the DGA win as well), but, of course, we can’t count out Linklater quite yet. However, I think, as directors (and others in the field), they’ll notice that Birdman is the better directed film. I watched it for a third time just today and am still stunned at not only how great the film is, but how amazingly crafted it is. Whereas, again, aside from the idea and some pretty good editing, there just isn’t much there in Boyhood to justify a Linklater win here, which would make it extremely disappointing if that were to happen.
Did you mean to write Courage would take director and 12 Years a Slave would take Picture, Sasha? Or did autocorrect switch ‘Cuaron’ to ‘Courage’?
Meanwhile, over at Gold Derby just two pundits, Jenelle Reilly and Anne Thompson are predicting Alejandro G. Inarritu to win for Birdman, while everyone else is predicting Linklater.
Reminiscent of when most people were predicting Brokeback Mountain for the Oscar save a couple of nutjobs… who eventually turned out to be right. Only this would be stranger, surely, in that Crash’s upset was a legitimate one. If Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu wins this award and so few saw it coming, there’ll be some major rethinking going on among Oscar pundits, and not just this year but in years to come also. It’s not even like this would be a The King’s Speech PGA style surprise, since we genuinely didn’t see that coming. If Inarritu wins, with the PGA and SAG wins already on Birdman’s shelf, we’d have no excuse.
Still predicting Richard Linklater, though. In the end, I may be happier than I’d once thought to see this year’s Best Picture race unfold quite predictably, without much of a wobble. All things considered, a Boyhood win is probably best case scenario for all involved, including us Oscar watchers.