66% of our readers so far predict Richard Linklater to win, followed by Alejandro G. Inarritu. Do you agree?
Meanwhile, over at Gold Derby just two pundits, Jenelle Reilly and Anne Thompson are predicting Alejandro G. Inarritu to win for Birdman, while everyone else is predicting Linklater.
Last year, the DGA did not predict the Best Picture winner because there was a crazy agreed-upon split happening throughout the season. Cuaron would take director and 12 Years a Slave would take Picture. This mirrored In the Heat of the Night winning Picture and Mike Nichols winning Director for The Graduate. That kind of split has only happened twice and in both cases a bravura director and a socially conscious picture were paired. But 2014 is not like that. There is no agreed-upon split yet. What you’re seeing so far is something a little reminiscent of 2010 when The Social Network won the critics but the PGA took the race in an entirely different direction. What the DGA decides tonight will determine whether yes, it is 2010 all over again, or no, it is going to maybe be a little more like Little Miss Sunshine winning PGA and SAG but then losing DGA to Scorsese and then losing Picture and Director at the Oscars, when the Departed won big.
Boyhood is obviously not The Departed. Big Hollywood likes Big Hollywood movies and other than American Sniper, Birdman’s about as big Hollywood as you’re like to get with the Best Picture race.
The Oscar for Best Director can sometimes lend surprises but it’s harder to find a surprise winner at the DGA – it hardly ever happens because they are such a massive group. A massive group tasked with finding best this year is interesting because it probably splits up all over the place. The DGA has five and no preferential ballot but the five films will each have their supporters. All five.
What win will take the race in what direction?
Boyhood – stays the course, will win Director — Picture still open-ended but most likely Boyhood.
Precedent: Martin Scorsese won Best Director for The Departed at the Globes, at the Critics Choice (with Picture), and with the New York Film Critics — Linklater won those also. Pic lost PGA and SAG. Precedent: The Departed
Birdman – Birdman will likely take Director and probably Picture
Precedent: The King’s Speech, which won PGA and SAG.
The Imitation Game – Totally unprecedented win but would mean Imitation Game is suddenly more popular than anyone thought.
Precedent: Maybe like Ridley Scott winning for Gladiator – then the movie winning Picture but someone else winning Director.
American Sniper – total game-changer. Sniper can only win Picture because Eastwood is not nominated at the Oscars for Director. Precedent: Argo for the win, Apollo 13 and The Color Purple for the loss.
The Grand Budapest Hotel
If it suddenly wins DGA it would be like any film that won nothing previously. No real precedent for its win since 2000 at least but like The Imitation Game you could say Ridley Scott.
Each choice represents a different type of voter. For some reason, Clint Eastwood keeps calling my name when I look at that list, not just because Sniper is so popular all the sudden, but because he’s is his 80s and had this kind of success. That is my No Guts, No Glory pick. My prediction remains the safe choice — and the one I think is most deserved – Linklater.
Here is a quickie contest to replace the one that got trashed. If you entered and have your return receipt make sure to keep track to see if you won or not.