“And now, perhaps, three times in four years. Poor Harvey Weinstein. The appalling “Honor the Man — Honor the Film” campaign he’s been running for The Imitation Game has begged voters to factor in the historical importance of subject matter when the apparent reality turns out to be that Alan Turing, Chris Kyle, Martin Luther King Jr., and Stephen Hawking are all likely to be beaten by a mirror. Like Time magazine’s 2006 Person of the Year, the Best Picture winner is now always “You.” Or, as the Academy thinks of itself, “Us.” — Mark Harris, Grantland
The early part of this year’s Oscar race had pundits swirling around films that might win because they were just that good, or those that might win because the Academy might deem them “important” or might respond to them in other ways. “Some movies you feel.” In the end, though, the pundits and and everyone else forgot about the overarching power of self-love. Just as Narcissus found himself struck by his own reflection — a love that could never be fulfilled, just an endless ache for self — so does this industry return again and again to the reflecting pool to gaze lovingly at themselves. The rest of us fade into noise as Echo herself, trying to love that which only loves itself.
Birdman is the third of these films to reach for Best Picture in recent years, a proposition proposed by the best writer on the Oscar race, Grantland’s Mark Harris. “Birdman,” writes Harris, “Is about a man trying to make a film as good as Boyhood.” Only Harris can deliver those kinds of lines — that are both truthful and astonishing in their beauty and clarity. That is exactly it. Great art is so rarely achieved and in Hollywood, if the critics love it too much, that enrages the gods. Because Birdman skewers critics and celebrates the not-very-talented everyman in the industry it is embraced by an industry that often rejects the films the critics adore. This was the case going all the way back to Citizen Kane and How Green was my Valley.
The films that embody the reflecting pool for Narcissus are the ones that gently poke fun at the industry while not exactly taking it apart. Rejected are more scathing films like The Player or Maps to the Stars, and accepted are films like Argo, The Artist and now, Birdman. Poor stupid chumps just trying to do good work in a changing, evolving, rejecting industry. Poor everyman who can’t catch a break. They see themselves — oh, do they see themselves.
Or as Harris puts it:
I’m not sure why, in the last four years, Oscar voters have suddenly become so determined to turn inward, although they certainly live in a world that encourages it. Every year now, awards season seems to be twice as noisy as the year before. Given the glut of mailings, screenings, DVDs, trade publications, and blogs that exist because of Oscar advertising, roundtables, preliminary awards, dinners, contrived festival honors, panels, and Q&As, it’s easy for people who live and work inside the bubble to start to believe, between October and February, that the bubble is all there is. When they go home for the holidays in December, it’s with a stack of screeners; when they self-disgustedly flee Hollywood in January, they get only as far as Sundance. And this winter, the scandal over the Sony hack and The Interview provided an unusual corroboration of the idea that what Hollywood does really is front-page news with real-world stakes. In that context, a vote for Birdman, which might have looked like an act of self-absorption back in November, may now feel more like a defiant act of self-affirmation: We’re here, we’re deeply flawed but sincere — get used to it!
Why, one might ask, did the British voters reject Birdman (just one award, for cinematography) and embrace Boyhood, Grand Budapest and Whiplash? For some reason, they are not as captivated by their reflection this time around as they, too, have been in the past. That has left the Hollywood industry twisting in the wind as it reaches and embraces that one movie that pushes their buttons in the right way. The Globes, the Critics Choice and now the British film industry and all of its 6,000 voters said sorry but Boyhood is the better film. Boyhood is the more brilliant work of art.
With the BAFTA it obviously wasn’t even close, not even a screenplay win for Birdman. With Hollywood though? They can’t pull themselves away. They see their changing industry and they feel protective of the true artists who, like Harris said, are hoping to make movies as good as Boyhood. The shame of it all, the sad lament, is that when it comes to rewarding films with gold statues it always has to be more about them than it is about the art of the thing.
How great would it be for the American film industry to step up and also recognize the works by their best homegrown artists, like Richard Linklater. In the end, the pundits never saw the dynamic coming. They figured Birdman was divisive — so many people “out there” didn’t get it or didn’t like what they got, while others thoroughly loved it. But Boyhood is another movie that many people don’t get. Voters heard about the reviews and all of the awards won and they watched the film and thought, really? That’s it? That’s because their expectations had put it in some kind of crazy category — they kept waiting for something to happen. They maybe even thought, this is the case of the Emperor’s New Clothes. You might think that, of course, especially if you’re not a mother and if you haven’t raised children of your own. Or if you had it didn’t really profoundly impact you. Maybe you don’t feel the passage of time thrum through your circulatory system on a daily basis. Maybe you don’t contemplate the shortness of life, the swiftness of it all, the accidental success of merely reaching the age of 20.
The Oscars aren’t really about much anymore about that self-reflecting pool. Birdman will probably win and it’s a worthy winner, to be sure. It isn’t a movie like Boyhood that you have to reach in to understand. You can pretty much get it because it’s all there on the surface with each character shouting the theme of the play/movie.
How alive and funny and vibrant Birdman is. How well connected Chivo’s camera is to Michael Keaton’s changing face. Keaton is the best thing about the film and yet he may not be winning any more awards. Birdman IS Michael Keaton. It is his actor’s showcase. How bizarre that the film would be winning yet not its anchor. A friend of mine loved Birdman so much she went back and saw it a second time. I myself love the movie too, but not that much. I don’t remember it, even after seeing it three or four times. I only remember Keaton and how badly I felt for his character. I remember the skewering of modern society and the film critic. But that’s about it. Good thing I’m not in charge of picking the year’s best.
In a year about all of the problems of men, where every single dusty corner of the white male experience is explored, where women and people of color are mostly forgotten, it sort of adds insult to injury that the big life problem the industry has decided to mourn is the death of traditional Hollywood in the face of Superhero movies. Here is Ava DuVernay making history come alive with Selma, giving voice to the voiceless, opening doors, inspiring young women to make movies, inspiring black artists to be heard. There was Gillian Flynn adapting her own novel into a screenplay, one of the few R-rated movies to hit $168 million. There is Wes Anderson making the best film of his career with the Grand Budapest Hotel and there is Boyhood, the masterpiece by one of America’s most humble and experimental storytellers, making the lament of time and age and personal evolution come alive in two hours of film. Yet here is Hollywood, gazing upon itself yet again. “Poor us. Poor sad us.”
That our industry could walk on past a film like Boyhood just because it makes a generation of older men shrug is one of the many reasons why when it comes time to walk away from the Oscar race I will do so with a smile. It isn’t that Birdman isn’t a good film. It’s as Mark Harris says, when these are the two films up for the award it’s a pretty good year. It’s that some films are worthy of gold statues because they represent what the Oscars proclaim they’re about: the highest achievements in film. I look at the short categories, the foreign language and the documentary — in all of those categories achievement and effort and execution are all taken into account. It is only the best picture that must continually dumb itself down to a consensus that doesn’t seem to understand that it is supposed to be about Miss Right, not Miss Right Now.
All the same, whatever message Hollywood is sending to itself about itself is being read loud and clear by its own ears. It knows what it wants and where it wants to be. And it’s listening. To itself. It pities itself for being caught out of time. It knows that the rest of the world is about to swallow it up and it is grasping for dear life to whatever refuse the giant ship discarded. It will hold on and while it’s clinging to life the shimmering water will appear in front of them and as their bodies start to freeze they will once again see themselves and they will once again fall madly in love. Behind them they might hear the faint echo of those who loved them that they could not see.
Predictions
My predictions are going to fall into wishful thinking. I don’t think a film can win the major guilds and not win Best Picture, despite what the BAFTA did or didn’t do. Fuck it, it’s about the industry so let’s put the thing to bed, shall we? There is no turning it around once it gets to this level. But I refuse, as I did with the Social Network and Lincoln, to abandon my own stubbornness. Thus, I’m going to white knuckle it through with Boyhood and Linklater because I remain stunned that they’re actually going to reject this film for the top awards. Thus, my predictions are both a protest vote -— as I take a sad pointless stand and there is always that slight chance that the awards will once again split, with Boyhood or Linklater taking one of the top awards. Thus, if I predict both, there’s a good chance one or the other will win. But DON’T YOU BE LIKE ME. If you want to win your office pool, the smart money is on Birdman for both.
Best Picture Boyhood
Best Director
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Best Actor
Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Supporting
JK Simmons, Whiplash and Patricia Arquette, Boyood
Original Screenplay
Birdman (or Grand Budapest Hotel)
Adapted Screenplay
Whiplash
Editing
Boyhood
Cinematography
Birdman
Production Design, Costumes, Makeup and Score
Grand Budapest Hotel
Visual Effects
Interstellar
Song
Glory, Selma
Sound
American Sniper
Sound Editing
Birdman
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Documentary
CitizenFour
Live Action Short
Parvaneh
Doc Short
Joanna
Animated Short
Feast
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
“Your case for Birdman’s win pretty much tells why I think Boyhood should win. One film belongs to the pantheon of the (very few) great films of 2014. The other belongs to the ages. Boyhood is history.”
Well, I’m working off what I think will happen, based on people’s reactions now – it doesn’t mean it’ll necessarily happen, and it doesn’t mean I, personally, agree that Boyhood is more of a masterpiece! 🙂 I think they’re both very, very good, about equally good, but I personally prefer Birdman, without much doubt. Not by much, but clearly. Though I do sort of agree that Boyhood might be the more memorable of the two, the more likely to stick in my mind in the years to come. Which is strange, given how laid-back it is, but that’s how I feel about it. But only time will tell… for now, Birdman is my choice. 🙂 I might change my mind about that later on, but there’s no point in trying to guess now whether that’ll happen or not – at least as far as I’m concerned.
@JP
Sure, 12 Years a Slave is technically based on subject matter an “Oscar movie, but it is definitely an “Oscar movie done right.” The only ones I can think of such movies in recent times with are Platoon, Schindler’s List, and (maybe) Titanic (I know people hate it, but it is a monumental achievement considering several people thought it would bomb).
@ Claudiu
Your case for Birdman’s win pretty much tells why I think Boyhood should win. One film belongs to the pantheon of the (very few) great films of 2014. The other belongs to the ages. Boyhood is history.
I think the Academy needs more a Boyhood win than Boyhood needs a BP win. It already is part of history. In a year the lack of relevance of the nominations were so in focus, it would be at least something that the Academy acknowledges the film that belongs to history.
And to others;
12 Years a Slave is a HUGE Oscar movie. It is the biggest Oscar movie to win BP this century along with A Beautiful Mind and The King’s Speech. And I’m making no comments about the quality of the film, which is very very good.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah… you’re right… I was thinking of just the WGA nomination when I said 1980s, for some reason… yeah, I remember it goes back farther than that if you consider both. 🙂 Pretty crazy!
@Claudiu
“No, Gravity’s MAIN problem was the lack of screenplay AND WGA nominations, without which no movie has won since the 1980’s.”
Actually the ONLY film to win Best Picture without a screenplay nominations from either the Oscars or WGA was Hamlet in 1949. Chariots of Fire had no WGA, yet it WON Best Screenplay at the Oscars. The Greatest Show on Earth received a Best Story Oscar (which is considered a screenplay award according to AMPAS).
“12 Years A Slave wasn’t an “Oscar” movie either but it had that important subject matter and powerfully emotional edge to it which meant it couldn’t be ignored”
What? 12YAS was the ultimate Oscar bait type movie lol. Nonfiction, historical, social rights issue, big Hollywood actors
Sorry for all the typos. I meant to say; “that it is all surface flash and no substance”…
It’s almost funny to see a couple of cursory “I really like Birdman” statements, sort of buried within the content of this story. It brings a thought to mind; I wonder if anybody else feels this way….
I think the one thing I’ll take with me from the Oscar season, from this site as well as several others, is this: Birdman just doesn’t cut it. It doesn’t measure up. It falls short. It’s LESS than something else. It is, basically a failure when compared to Boyhood. And as time goes by I’m fairly certain that what Birdman will become known for if it does win Best Picture, is it will be the film that stole that award from Boyhood, and that a complete travesty of justice happened because Birdman won.
And I think about my experience watching Birdman for the first time at The Arclight, how I felt I’d been picked up and lifted out of that theater, how my friends and I went out afterward and talked about the film for a few hours over at Pann’s, and how amazing everyone agreed the picture was.
We’re clearly quite a long ways from that night now. We’re not talking about that screenplay, those performances, the superb technicals involved in that production. It all basically takes a backseat to how I’m being hammered with it over and over and over and over and over again, that Boyhood losing to Birdman is a travesty, Birdman is not directed by an American, has is all surface flash and no substance.
In short, Birdman sucks.
What a drag. But I must say after reading everything here and a couple other places for the past 6 weeks, I’m practically convinced.
It does feel like the battle of Boyhood’s understatement versus Birdman’s overstatement. I love Boyhood and I love Linklater’s style but can see how Hollywood types would dislike it for being “simple” and not being anything like the movies they make or usually honour. 12 Years A Slave wasn’t an “Oscar” movie either but it had that important subject matter and powerfully emotional edge to it which meant it couldn’t be ignored. If Birdman wins to me its because yes its pretty good and entertaining, and even if an Academy member didn’t particularly like Birdman they would probably still be impressed by its technical marvel. Perhaps the same can’t be said of Boyhood, we’ve already seen that those who dislike it REALLY dislike it and call it “average” in every department. I enjoyed Birdman, but the thought it of being honoured as best film of the year is weird, and some scenes made me cringe a bit like Emma Stone’s angry rant.
Oh, and, by the way, you can ask the critics about 12 Years a Slave. Also, there are A LOT of us who remember Shakespeare in Love quite well and love it to bits, you arrogant know-it-all… Don’t impose your opinions as though they were fact, in addition to being a douchebag!
“I wish you had the power to give it to them”
Since I meant THEM = the guys who produced Birdman (the guys who would actually be GETTING the Oscar), you must be a real douchebag, if you’re going to insult people needlessly, without even understanding their English. So you have my blessing to sod off! And you don’t want to know what even kinder words I’d rather be addressing to you for your completely unwarranted insolence, if I didn’t care about keeping this site clean for Ryan and the gang. I hate smug people like you, who think they know everything but, in fact, can’t even understand simple English. I hate them deeply. If you apologize, I might reconsider – but you don’t strike me like the kind of person who would have the strength of character to admit their mistake and do that, so my blessing above stands, until proven wrong.
And, besides, I’m sorry you misunderstood, but that’s your problem! You could have asked for clarification (like I, and other normal people, do when we’re not clear on what someone meant), but instead you just came out and attacked me, without even thinking for a second that there were other possible meanings to what I had said. How was I supposed to phrase it: “the power to give it to me”? – I wouldn’t be getting Birdman’s Oscar; “…to give it to him”? – Birdman’s not a person; “to give it to it”? – that sounds like shit, and there might be a grammatical reason for it sounding like shit too, though I don’t know it, to be honest. Or do you have an alternative way to phrase it to suggest? I’d be surprised…
And this is what I get for trying to write in proper English… Thanks, thanks a lot! You’ve really made my day…
“Secondly, do you think someone like Godard would give a damn about an Oscar”
I don’t care what Godard gives a damn about.
“Those are the filmmakers whose works are remembered by critics, scholars and historians. Their films are the ones which have a place in the history of cinema, and the memory of moviegoers. ”
Yes, and Boyhood will join them. Which is why Birdman (unless you think it’s a shit movie) deserves to get something too, because it’s also pretty good, but probably won’t be joining Boyhood in that kind of recognition. Did you even read what I wrote before writing your snide and condescending little message?…
CLAUDIU CRISTIAN DOBRE:
“I wish you had the power to give it to them, so that I could enjoy it…”
Since almost every filmmaker I mentioned is dead, you have to be a cinematic illiterate or -even worse- a cynic to write something like that.
Secondly, do you think someone like Godard would give a damn about an Oscar? Actually, the Academy offered him an award for his career in 2010, but he rejected it. There’s something much better than an Oscar: to be a committed artist, to be a director who doesn’t play by the rules of the game, who doesn’t sell out his artistic integrity to the Hollywood industry. Those are the filmmakers whose works are remembered by critics, scholars and historians. Their films are the ones which have a place in the history of cinema, and the memory of moviegoers. Every film buff will always recall Orson Welles’s Citizen Kane, Jean Renoir’s The Rules of the Game, John Ford’s The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, Alfred Hitchcock’s Vertigo, Howard Hawks’s Rio Bravo, Godard’s Contempt, or Robert Bresson’s Pickpocket. But how many cinephiles will remember Braveheart, Shakespeare in Love, A Beautiful Mind, The King’s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, or Birdman in 50 (or 5) years?
Preferential ballot simulation results will be here (soon): http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/02/weak-year-for-oscar-movies-who-cares-its-been-a-stupendous-years-for-movie-movies/#comment-4266819
“You’re not the only one who adores Slumdog.”
Me too!
“I love it primarily for the way it tells a simple story of love intertwined with growing up, facing adversity, and an addictive soundtrack and killer editing/cinematography.”
Indeed…
Slumdog, Up, Toy Story 3, The Sound of Music, Dead Poets Society… Very nice list! Some of my favorites too. Although some of your titles are on a lot of people’s hate lists, as well 🙂 – not mine, though. I didn’t mind any of them, even though they’re not among my favorites either. Besides, I don’t really have a hate list… Very few movies make me actually hate that I’ve had to watch them, like American Sniper did.
“BTW, you do know who the Tenth Doctor is, Claudiu?”
I know Who the Doctor is. I didn’t know who the Tenth Doctor is, but I looked it up: so it’s David Tennant… Yeah, he’s solid. Me, I actually liked Christopher Eccleston quite a bit, though I’ve read most people didn’t.
“For the stats freakers, Gravity had two enourmous things against it… No SAG ensemble (no cast? But Birdman… no Editing? Argument seems similar). And no screenplay nomination. Put this two together and… BOOOOM!”
The SAG ensemble snub was questionable, of course, and I didn’t make it the crux of my anti-Gravity arguments last year, though I, personally, feel that it’s still more important than an editing snub, because of the number of Academy voters involved in the nomination process, which must be at least 3 times larger for the SAG snub than for the editing category.
No, Gravity’s MAIN problem was the lack of screenplay AND WGA nominations, without which no movie has won since the 1980’s. And the fact that it was a space movie. Had it had ALL these problems AND a completely legitimate SAG snub, I wouldn’t have given it much of a chance at all, DGA or no DGA. As it was, a case could be made for it winning…
“Every winner of BP under preferential ballot has had PGA/DGA combination.”
12 YAS? The perfect combination would be PGA and BAFTA, that match perfectly since preferential ballot. But this year will put and end to this trend.
For the stats freakers, Gravity had two enourmous things against it… No SAG ensemble (no cast? But Birdman… no Editing? Argument seems similar). And no screenplay nomination. Put this two together and… BOOOOM!
Every winner of BP under preferential ballot has had PGA/DGA combination.
To me the PGA was a sign Birdman was back into solid second, DGA that it was first.
To me it’s exciting because my fave film hardly ever wins and after I first saw Birdman (pre-DGA) my first thought was I wish boyhood wasnt around to win BP.
I still dont understand how the pundits didn’t see it surging??
@JP
“And anyone doesn’t? I celebrated every single 1241241 of Slumdog Millionare wins and laughed reading the hate for the film despite the obvious fact it was the critics favorite film among that lineup”
You’re not the only one who adores Slumdog. It’s my favorite film of all time (sorry, Ryan/Nolan fans). I love it primarily for the way it tells a simple story of love intertwined with growing up, facing adversity, and an addictive soundtrack and killer editing/cinematography. Although I wished Oscar voters would have given Dark Knight a fair chance.
My top 12 favorite films
1. Slumdog Millonaire
2. Blind Side
3. Up (2009)/Toy Story 3 *TIE
5, The Artist
6. The Little Mermaid
7, The Sound of Music
8. Hugo
9. Dead Poets Society
10. Driving Miss Daisy
11. The Avengers
12. Super 8
BTW, you do know who the Tenth Doctor is, Claudiu?
“I like less predictability when I’m indifferent to the result.”
Well, I side with the stats, more than with the movies, so, honestly… while I like it at first, for a little bit, I don’t really ever like there to be less predictability until late on in the BP race – in the other categories, I wish no winners were ever clear! But in BP, if it’s not clear enough by the end, after the DGA, I get nervous about the stats holding up, which I care about a lot, and I just end up wishing it was clearer, regardless of who the favorite is. And, to make things worse, the favorite has also been MY favorite the last two years, so, if it lost (which, thankfully, didn’t happen last year, at least), the stats would also lose… everything to lose, nothing to gain – which is why I’m probably just going to insure Boyhood a bit for Oscar night, to at least get some money back if the stats don’t hold up AND Birdman loses. I didn’t do it last year, because the stats were clearer in favor of 12 Years.
“I DON’T HAVE ANYTHING AGAINST BOYHOOD. If Boyhood wins, Brilliant (as the Tenth Doctor would say)!”
Same here.
“I actually would wish for Selma to win”
Between Selma and Boyhood – yeah. Not over Birdman, though, but, again, I wouldn’t mind it at all.
“I meant picking/choosing certain facts to suit oneself while blatantly ignoring others for illogical reasons.”
Yup, exactly – and not even WHOLE facts, just fragments of facts, sometimes. 🙁
“I just said Boyhood’s stats can’t be dismissed. It’s totally in the race.”
Nobody’s saying otherwise.
“At least Boyhood has won ACE.”
Yup. That could clearly be important. But right now it’s just a possibility – the other guilds that Birdman has won far outweigh it. If Boyhood wins the WGA too… then Birdman might have a very serious problem. I don’t know what I’d predict then, to be honest. I’ll see about that when I get there. I admit, though, that my natural pessimism is telling me it’ll happen, somehow, even though Boyhood has not won any major screenplay prizes so far, only critics’ awards.
But, even without the WGA, it has the ACE (in addition to all that other non-guild stuff), so it’s, of course, sort of legit as an upset over a triple crown winner already…
“Enjoy your beloved statue.”
I wish you had the power to give it to them, so that I could enjoy it… 🙂
Birdman clearly won’t make any all-time lists with critics/anybody in the future, it’s way too divisive for that. Boyhood will. So the Oscar is Birdman’s only chance to have some kind of recognition that regular people (as in not just awards-geeks like us) remember attached to its name, and it’s (to me and others) a great movie that I think deserves it. Even an Oscar, as “meaningless” as it is to some people, is better than nothing. Besides, if they can give it to 12 Years a Slave and Birdman in succession, then maybe they’re not so irrelevant anymore! Maybe they’re improving, and their winners will continue to be great, and in 10 years’ time people will see them as relevant again. (The same can be said for Boyhood, of course – but, again, Boyhood doesn’t NEED the Oscar, since clearly it’ll be remembered as one of the all-time greatest movies, by critics at least, anyway, whether I agree with that or not).
Of course, I’m being way too optimistic about their winners. 🙂 But one can dream…
“But most people hate to see it like that… they hate that you can determine the favorite with almost total precision. It’s normal – they want a closer, less predictable race. Especially when their favorite is behind.”
And anyone doesn’t? I celebrated every single 1241241 of Slumdog Millionare wins and laughed reading the hate for the film despite the obvious fact it was the critics favorite film among that lineup.
I like less predictability when I’m indifferent to the result. Last year, for example, I loved all the splits with Gravity and 12YAS. My favorite Her was not in the race. But I really celebrated when it won screenplay. One of the most f… deserving and edgier choices the Academy made this century. Same for Babel, The Departed and LMS. My faves that year (United 93, Children of Men and Pan’s Labyrinth were not nominated and The Queen did not stand a chance).
CLAUDIU CRISTIAN DOBRE:
Charlie Chaplin, Orson Welles, Howard Hawks, Alfred Hitchcock, Nicholas Ray, Samuel Fuller, John Cassavetes (among many of the greatest American filmmakers of all time), never won an Oscar for a specific film. Foreign masters like Carl Dreyer, Yasujiro Ozu, Kenji Mizoguchi, Robert Bresson, Jean-Luc Godard, or Abbas Kiarostami (to name only a few) never did, either. You know who did? Mel Gibson, and the guy who directed The King’s Speech. I rest my case. Enjoy your beloved statue.
@ Claude
I know the stats fave Birdman, as I’ve said, and I’m likely betting on it winning both BP/BD. I just said Boyhood’s stats can’t be dismissed. It’s totally in the race. At least, I’m hedging my emotions. If it wins, great for my bets. Don’t wanna do worse than 22/24 last year but If I had to choose, I’d prefer to be wrong and to see Boyhood winning both. And to see other surprises. Michael Keaton winning being one of those. One of this days I was checking… only 11 films have a perfect Metacritic score. Only one is truly representative… (most of them have 4, 6 reviews) and it’s Boyhood. My feeling is the same as Sasha’s… Birdman in great and better and edgier than most choices the Academy made ever. But I think you just can’t deny this film.
@ BIRDIENEST81
“In other words, winning at least ONE OF THE FIVE TOP GUILDS AWARDS DOES MATTER SINCE THE EXISTENCE OFF ALL FIVE AT THE SAME TIME. And don’t say the WGA does not matter in Best Picture race,”
At least Boyhood has won ACE.
3 of the past 4 Best Picture winners were ineligible at WGA. If Birdman wins, it’s 4 out of 5. Did it hurt them? I’m not saying it does not matter, but other awards matter much more… even the Globes, that people love to dismiss.
And to prove the guilds do matter, I’ll just remind the haters… SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE… biggest train in awards season history. It swept the guilds (all of them… costumes, art direction, sound mixers, sound editors), won BAFTA, GG, Critics Choice, National Board, had the highest Metascore among the nominees. won the most Oscars this century after Lord of the Rings… even swept the Grammys.
I meant picking/choosing certain facts to suit oneself while blatantly ignoring others for illogical reasons.
@Claudiu
Oh, and just for the record, I DON’T HAVE ANYTHING AGAINST BOYHOOD. If Boyhood wins, Brilliant (as the Tenth Doctor would say)! I actually would wish for Selma to win, but that is not happening, sadly. However, Boyman (I’m tired of typing both, LOL) are outside the box films that deserve kudos. I just don’t like picking and chosing facts.
Ms. Sasha Stone: since I watched Before Sunrise almost eighteen years ago, I thought Linklater could be the most serious, creative and humane American filmmaker of his generation. Despite a couple of mediocre works (SubUrbia, the unnecessary remake of Bad News Bears), his subsequent career is a proof that I was right.
But to put it in simple words, Linklater is an outsider from Hollywood, and Boyhood is a real independent film, made on the margins of the industry, with a very low budget. Therefore, it’s very difficult that he will get an Oscar now or in the future. The members of the Academy have ignored him for more than twenty years (they have done the same with Charles Burnett, David Lynch, John Waters, John Sayles, Jim Jarmusch, Spike Lee, Gus Van Sant, Allison Anders, Hal Hartley, etc.). Why would they recognize an artist that challenges the conventions of Hollywood storytelling?
Regards from a South American filmgoer.
But most people hate to see it like that… they hate that you can determine the favorite with almost total precision. It’s normal – they want a closer, less predictable race. Especially when their favorite is behind.
“The big message is when it comes to winning Best Picture at the Oscars, it’s MOSTLY a game of addition (especially with the guilds) and A FEW subtractions of its rivals.”
Agreed, almost all of the time. Sometimes, like this year, though, comparison of close percentages also enters into it. Then, addition… 🙂
“I’m afraid people might miss the whole picture again, so”
🙂 Oh, don’t worry… they’ll miss it no matter how thoroughly you explain!…
@Claudiu
The big message is when it comes to winning Best Picture at the Oscars, it’s MOSTLY a game of addition (especially with the guilds) and A FEW subtractions of its rivals.
Sorry Claudiu, but here’s an udpated list (I’m afraid people might miss the whole picture again, so)
Since the existence of the five top guilds (PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, and WGA)…
Winners of weighted ballot (won simple majority)
Braveheart (won WGA+ACE)*
The English Patient (ACE+DGA+PGA)
Titanic (won PGA+DGA+ACE)
Shakespeare in Love (won WGA+SAG)
American Beauty (won SAG+WGA+PGA+DGA)
Gladiator (won PGA+ACE)
A Beautiful Mind (won PGA+WGA)
Chicago (won ACE+DGA+SAG+PGA)
LOTR 3: (won ACE+DGA+SAG+PGA)^
Million Dollar Baby (won DGA)
Crash (won SAG+ACE+WGA)**
The Departed (won DGA+WGA+ACE)
No Country for Old Men (won DGA+SAG+PGA+WGA)
Slumdog Millionaire (won DGA+SAG+PGA+WGA+ACE)
Winners of preferential ballot (won 51 percent with rankings)
The Hurt Locker (won DGA+WGA+PGA+ACE)
The King’s Speech (won SAG+PGA+DGA)
The Artist (won DGA+PGA+ACE)
Argo (won DGA+SAG+PGA+WGA+ACE)***
12 Years a Slave (won PGA)****
In other words, winning at least ONE OF THE FIVE TOP GUILDS AWARDS DOES MATTER SINCE THE EXISTENCE OFF ALL FIVE AT THE SAME TIME. And don’t say the WGA does not matter in Best Picture race,
*Ron Howard Oscar Director snub. Braveheart had acting ensemble snub
^First year of earlier Oscar date
**Brokeback Mountain Editing Oscar Snub
***Argo Ben Affleck Argo Directing Oscar Snub
****Gravity screenwriting snubs at both WGA and Oscar and acting ensemble snub
(Also actor-directors were Affleck, Eastwood, Gibson, Howard)
“That’s higher praise than any prize, particularly the Oscars, a Hollywood meaningless and self-congratulation show.”
Agreed. So let’s give Birdman the consolation prize, the Oscar! 🙂
Receiving his BAFTA felllowship, the great Mike Leigh said that Boyhood is a “definitive independent film, for which Linklater and his team can be justly proud.” That’s higher praise than any prize, particularly the Oscars, a Hollywood meaningless and self-congratulation show.
By the way, here you can watch Leigh’s glorious, hilarious acceptance speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGMiCL_LYQU
Correction: Departed also won ACE
*I had LESS support last year
“Some people don’t see the WHOLE PICTURE.”
🙁 I know… What bothers me is this refusal to even count things properly… I’ve seen some things today I never thought I’d see – apart from the guy just LISTING winners, like 8/10 is the same as 8/8 somehow, now there’s Alan telling me he doesn’t “accept” that winning one of four awards that have their winners win BP 25% of the time is less indicative than winning one award that has its winners win BP 47% of the time. I don’t know, man, it’s really weird… really weird… And with all the cheap tricks… I don’t know what I’d do if I was standing alone against such brutal attacks on simple logic – I might go insane! You can’t imagine how much I appreciate that there are other reasonable people here, when it comes to reading the stats, like you and Hawkeye! I had last support last year – but at least the opposition made more sense. This year is just super-weird that way… like I said, I’ve never seen anything like it…
@Claudiu
Relax and take a deep breather. Some people don’t see the WHOLE PICTURE. I’ve made a guild count to prove that guilds do matter.
Since the existence of the five top guilds (PGA, DGA, SAG, WGA, and WGA)…
Winners of weighted ballot (won simple majority)
Braveheart (won WGA+ACE)*
The English Patient (ACE+DGA+PGA)
Titanic (won PGA+DGA)
Shakespeare in Love (won WGA+SAG)
American Beauty (won SAG+WGA+PGA+DGA)
Gladiator (won PGA+ACE)
A Beautiful Mind (won PGA+WGA)
Chicago (won ACE+DGA+SAG+PGA)
LOTR 3: (won ACE+DGA+SAG+PGA)^
Million Dollar Baby (won DGA)
Crash (won SAG+ACE+WGA)**
The Departed (won DGA+WGA)
No Country for Old Men (won DGA+SAG+PGA+WGA)
Slumdog Millionaire (won DGA+SAG+PGA+WGA+ACE)
Winners of preferential ballot (won 51 percent with rankings)
The Hurt Locker (won DGA+WGA+PGA+ACE)
The King’s Speech (won SAG+PGA+DGA)
The Artist (won DGA+PGA+ACE)
Argo (won DGA+SAG+PGA+WGA+ACE)***
12 Years a Slave (won PGA)****
In other words, winning at least ONE OF THE FIVE TOP GUILDS AWARDS DOES MATTER SINCE THE EXISTENCE OFF ALL FIVE AT THE SAME TIME. And don’t say the WGA does not matter in Best Picture race,
*Ron Howard Oscar Director snub. Braveheart had acting ensemble snub
^First year of earlier Oscar date
**Brokeback Mountain Editing Oscar Snub
***Argo Ben Affleck Argo Directing Oscar Snub
****Gravity screenwriting snubs at both WGA and Oscar and acting ensemble snub
(Also actor-directors were Affleck, Eastwood, Gibson, Howard)
“it’s fruitless for you to come back and “correct” my number via YOUR INTERPRETATION of what you believe is important.”
What number?
“I had already said that I do not accept the Ensemble percentage versus a single acting category percentage.”
There’s nothing to accept or reject – the numbers are very clear. You’re just plain wrong.
“For reasons I had already stated.”
If you did, I missed it. Good for you!
“If this was your argument, you’re wrong. But considering Birdman is the first category and no film won Critics Choice, PGA and DGA, it is in a better position to win BP at the Oscars.”
R… U… EFFIN’… SERIOUS???… You’re going to count THE ONES THAT WON and NOT count THE ONES THAT LOST??? Who am I dealing with here?! Unbelievable… PEOPLE, PLEASE STOP TRYING CHEAP TRICKS WITH ME!!! OMG such lack of respect… you must think I started watching the Oscars in early 2015… Why do I even bother answering these people?!…
Movies that won DGA+PGA+SAG (7/8 won BP, for 87.5%):
Apollo 13 (lost BP)
American Beauty
Chicago
The Return of the King
No Country for Old Men
Slumdog Millionaire
The King’s Speech
Argo
Movies that won DGA+PGA+Critics’ Choice (ONLY 8/10 won BP, for 80%):
Saving Private Ryan (lost BP)
American Beauty
Chicago
The Return of the King
Brokeback Mountain (lost BP)
No Country for Old Men
Slumdog Millionaire
The Hurt Locker
The Artist
Argo
— ARE YOU SAYING 87.5% is LESS ACCURATE than 80%??? —
OMG, my heart weeps inside thinking how much more of my time this guy’s gonna waste trying to prove to me things that can’t be proven, using cheap tricks… I wonder what nonsense he’ll come up with next!…
“If this is your argument, you’re half right. Or half wrong. Films that won PGA, DGA and WGA won 7 times. Films that won GG, BAFTA and Critics Choice won 7 times also.”
No, in fact, I’m COMPLETELY right and NOT AT ALL wrong, because I said “name one of those that, combined with the PGA and/or DGA, does B_E_T_T_E_R than the SAG” – BETTER! Is 7 BETTER than 7? Also, there’s so much wrong with your statement above, it’s not even funny. I said SAG, not WGA – what’s WGA got to do with it?! Also, the BAFTA doesn’t count pre-2001 (American Beauty… WTF…), when it was AFTER the Oscars. Also, again you’re not looking at percentages – but go ahead, I dare you to show me that PGA+DGA+SAG has a lower predicting percentage than GG+BAFTA+BFCA post-2001!… I won’t do your work for you – go ahead, check, see for yourself that it DOESN’T, then shut up! I’ve already checked these things multiple times in the past. Do you think I’m gonna make statements I don’t know are 100% true?
“Forget Braveheart’s WGA. It doesn’t matter AT ALL for its BP/BD win.”
Because you say so? With no arguments? When I actually presented quite a few?… FAAAIL! Moving on…
“The lack of a director nomination for both Sense & Sensibility and Apollo 13 did.”
Does Birdman have a director nomination? Yes. So what’s your point? (And don’t make me explain again why the editing snub for Birdman is WAY not the same thing…)
“O M G – he’s gonna make me tell him again how only 24% of the BP-nominated movies that won acting awards at SAG won BP, while 47% (DOUBLE the frequency) of the Ensemble winners did the same…”
I had already said that I do not accept the Ensemble percentage versus a single acting category percentage. For reasons I had already stated. And I had already stated that I do not want to re-argue the point.
I’m not weighing heavily the SAG ensemble win not because I want to deflate Birdman’s achievement at SAG. I applied this very formula to last year’s contenders. It is MY OPINION and PHILOSOPHY looking at the numbers via WHAT I BELIEVE to be the reality of the SAG awards given MY EXPERIENCE IN THE INDUSTRY and my relationship with actor colleagues and my observation of their attitude toward the SAG ballots and also because of the generally inconclusive small samplings. You don’t have to agree with the belief, but it’s fruitless for you to come back and “correct” my number via YOUR INTERPRETATION of what you believe is important.
“There you go: Clueless had won Best Screenplay at the National Society of Film Critics Awards, and been 2nd place (after Sense and Sensibility) for the same at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards. I guess that was your front-runner for the category Braveheart won.”
Well… What an upset! It beat Clueless! Forget Braveheart’s WGA. It doesn’t matter AT ALL for its BP/BD win. The lack of a director nomination for both Sense & Sensibility and Apollo 13 did.
‘Yes, but name one of those that, combined with the PGA and/or DGA, does better than the SAG, combined with the same, at predicting the BP winner. You can’t, because they don’t.’
1)
Films that won the trio and BP:
American Beauty
Chicago
Return of the King
No Country For Old Men
Slumdog Millionaire
The King’s Speech
Argo
Films that won DGA-PGA-Critics Choice:
American Beauty
Chicago
Return of the King
No Country For Old Men
Slumdog Millionaire
The Hurt Locker
The Artist
Argo
If this was your argument, you’re wrong. But considering Birdman is the first category and no film won Critics Choice, PGA and DGA, it is in a better position to win BP at the Oscars.
2)
GG+BAFTA+CriticsChoice that won BP
American Beauty
Gladiator
Return of the King
Slumdog Millionaire
The Artist
Argo
12 Years a Slave
If this is your argument, you’re half right. Or half wrong. Films that won PGA, DGA and WGA won 7 times. Films that won GG, BAFTA and Critics Choice won 7 times also.
It’s not a question – it’s a certainty: the ensemble award is FAR more relevant to BP than any acting win at SAG.
“Is winning the Ensemble is the ultimate category? That is the question.”
O M G – he’s gonna make me tell him again how only 24% of the BP-nominated movies that won acting awards at SAG won BP, while 47% (DOUBLE the frequency) of the Ensemble winners did the same…
“So most of these movies were already the juggernaut of their season.”
Except for The King’s Speech, of course. Besides, even without that exception, that’s still an exaggeration – No Country lost the Globe and BAFTA to Atonement, and Chicago lost the BAFTA to The Pianist, and lost BD everywhere, even being snubbed by the BFCA.
So, in fact, ALMOST HALF of those 8 movies BECAME the juggernauts of the season BECAUSE of winning the triple crown, and were just very strong contenders before that. Like Birdman. Sure, nothing as strong as Boyhood (except for The Social Network) was their opposition, but, even so, you’re clearly exaggerating, trying to just explain away the triple crown like it doesn’t mean much, which it clearly does.
“Incidentally, the one movie that won PGA, SAG, and DGA that did not go on to win Oscar BP was, of course, Apollo 13. And guess what? Apollo 13, like Birdman, did not win BP at any of GG, BFCA nor BAFTA.”
Of course – which is why it’s still close.
However, Apollo 13 had no BD nomination, which was a 100% unquestionable snub, unlike Birdman’s editing snub. And it wasn’t the nomination leader. And the SAG was in its first year. And there was no preferential. And the PGA had no 100% record since the switch to preferential back then, like it does now. And Braveheart at least won the WGA. These are just the more important of the many differences between this year and 1996. But there is only ONE difference between this year and 2010 (with regards to the trajectory of the two movies contending for BP) – the BAFTA BP result (TSN even won BD there!). Which, again, went in favor of a British movie. If it’s The King’s Speech vs. Boyhood, who do you think wins? The King’s Speech, no question. If it’s Birdman, instead of a British movie, vs. The Social Network, again, who do you think wins? Probably The Social Network. And at the Oscars? The triple crown winner still gets BP, regardless of whether it’s British or not – in fact, it’s probably even more likely to do so if it’s American and about showbusiness… So don’t tell me it doesn’t matter that The King’s Speech was British. It changes EVERYTHING.
Therefore, the much closer precedent (both in terms of being more recent AND during the preferential ballot era, as well as in terms of similarity), 2010, clearly favors the triple crown winner.
@Birdienest
The question is about the SAG Guild Award at hands. The difference with SAG versus the other guilds is that they have five categories where they can spread their support to several . Is winning the Ensemble is the ultimate category? That is the question.
@Alan
“Incidentally, the one movie that won PGA, SAG, and DGA that did not go on to win Oscar BP was, of course, Apollo 13. And guess what? Apollo 13, like Birdman, did not win BP at any of GG, BFCA nor BAFTA.”
But Braveheart did have key wins at WGA and ACE. It also had the luxury of a longer Oscar season. The WGA is really important in tight races. Crash won SAG/ACE/WGA. It’s important to have guild support. No film has won since the existence of all four guild awards in 1996 (SAG/WGA/PGA/DGA).
“But, of course, it’s not the most clear-cut thing in the world, exactly HOW often it means support for the movie instead of support for the ensemble only, so I can, of course, accept your opinion as possibly being valid, without having to agree with it, or the arguments behind it. I think I’m right, but I understand that I could also be wrong. The evidence, while looking pretty strong to me, is still not 100% clear, for sure.”
Well, at the very least, thank you for the benefit of doubt, Mr. Dobre!
“By your logic about the SAG’s Ensemble Award, you could make the case with the other guild awards. DGA Best Director Award means best DIRECTED film ut not necessarily Best FILM altogether (remember Gravity and 12 Years a Slave). Editors decided on ACE Award for Best EDITED film, but not necessarily Best FILM altogether. WGA Award could mean best script but not necessarily the Best FILM altogether (Braveheart won BP Oscar and WGA Original, but not Oscar Orginal Screenplay).”
Birdnest81, I don’t subscribe to any specific logic with regards to SAG’s Ensemble Award. I just don’t buy the other logic. Given its poor record at predicting/matching Oscar BP, I just can’t in my good conscience include it in this so-called “undeniable trifecta”. In the last 19 years, there have been 8 films that have this trifecta. Seven of them went on to win BP. Pretty impressive ratio! But these seven pictures also won BP at GG, BFCA and/or BAFTA. And half of them won ALL of them. So most of these movies were already the juggernaut of their season. SAG was just part of that sweep.
Incidentally, the one movie that won PGA, SAG, and DGA that did not go on to win Oscar BP was, of course, Apollo 13. And guess what? Apollo 13, like Birdman, did not win BP at any of GG, BFCA nor BAFTA.
There you go: Clueless had won Best Screenplay at the National Society of Film Critics Awards, and been 2nd place (after Sense and Sensibility) for the same at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards. I guess that was your front-runner for the category Braveheart won.
“Do you think it is a sign of support beating Muriel’s Wedding, Clueless, The American President and Mighty Aphrodite? Really?”
Yeah, I know… 🙂 The key there, I think, though, is that Apollo 13, the triple crown winner, DID LOSE in the other category, to Sense and Sensibility (which also won the Oscar). So, who knows, maybe Braveheart would have won, had they all been competing together. You can say it probably wouldn’t have, but you can’t really say “definitely”. Whereas Apollo 13 definitely would have lost, since it would be the exact same people voting.
Besides, I’m not sure it’s THAT easy to beat Woody Allen and an emerging talent like Aaron Sorkin for a writing award. The win itself, even without Apollo 13’s loss, I think, is actually pretty significant. And it didn’t win any other screenplay awards that year, so they could easily have picked something else (like Mighty Aphrodite, which was also an Oscar nominee in that category), and nobody would have been too surprised, I bet. So, the win shows SOME support, at least. Especially since Braveheart WAS considered a BP contender.
“Considering WGA in the stats… Their eligibility process is very different.”
I agree it’s nowhere near as important as the triple crown awards. But it’s definitely still an indicator (as is the ACE, but less so due to the category split). The writers’ branch is not one of the smallest branches of the Academy, if I’m not mistaken…
“And Birdman has the 3. And only one lost after this. But only won also lost after winning Critics Choice, Golden Globes and BAFTA.”
Yes, but almost twice as recently. And none of those awards were in their first year when BBM won them, like the SAG was for Apollo 13.
“SAG Ensemble’s tracking record for predicting BP is the worst among PGA-DGA-SAG, BAFTAs, GGs and Critics Choice.”
Yes, but name one of those that, combined with the PGA and/or DGA, does better than the SAG, combined with the same, at predicting the BP winner. You can’t, because they don’t.
SAG Ensemble’s tracking record for predicting BP is the worst among PGA-DGA-SAG, BAFTAs, GGs and Critics Choice. It is 10/19 from 1995 to 2013. PGA is 13/19 in the same period. DGA is 14/19. Globes are 12/19 but they have two categories. Critics Choice is 12/19.
DGA and PGA are far more impressive to Birdman.
@Alan of NY
By your logic about the SAG’s Ensemble Award, you could make the case with the other guild awards. DGA Best Director Award means best DIRECTED film ut not necessarily Best FILM altogether (remember Gravity and 12 Years a Slave). Editors decided on ACE Award for Best EDITED film, but not necessarily Best FILM altogether. WGA Award could mean best script but not necessarily the Best FILM altogether (Braveheart won BP Oscar and WGA Original, but not Oscar Orginal Screenplay).
“Which doesn’t make untrue the fact that the BP support for the respective movies was first evident at one or more of the 4 most important guilds, as it is for EVERY winner since (apparently) 1986.”
Do you think it is a sign of support beating Muriel’s Wedding, Clueless, The American President and Mighty Aphrodite? Really? Considering WGA in the stats… Their eligibility process is very different. Braveheart won with a Globe directing win and a WGA it beat those 4 comedies. PGA-DGA-SAG is a an important trifeca. WGA is an important award, of course, but not really for predicting BP outcome. And Birdman has the 3. And only one lost after this. But only won also lost after winning Critics Choice, Golden Globes and BAFTA.
“Claudiu: How do you find time to post so much, and at such length, and in such detail???”
Believe me, that’s a VERY good question… I probably invest way too much time during this part of the race – because I have a lot of spare time, especially this time of the year. And I like it, of course. 🙂 I’ve been spending almost half of my waking time this past week reading and posting at AD… I’m gonna have to cool it a little bit soon, though, because it’s definitely hard to keep this kind of pace going. I’ve already started laying the seeds, and, after I do my simulation tomorrow and post the results, I’m gonna be a bit more laid back, and post only when I find it absolutely necessary – I’ll just read the articles and comments, mostly, before the Oscars. Maybe get a bit more involved for a while after the WGA announces, but that’s it. It’s taxing, no doubt.
“If y’all want to believe that SAG Ensemble win equals the actors saying that it’s the most favorite movie”
🙂 Well, I’m not saying it ALWAYS means that, clearly. But I am saying it probably means that more often than you think it does. And there’s very distinct evidence for that (which I’ve mentioned enough already), I’m not just talking out of my… But, of course, it’s not the most clear-cut thing in the world, exactly HOW often it means support for the movie instead of support for the ensemble only, so I can, of course, accept your opinion as possibly being valid, without having to agree with it, or the arguments behind it. I think I’m right, but I understand that I could also be wrong. The evidence, while looking pretty strong to me, is still not 100% clear, for sure.
“PGA+DGA+SAG, don’t remove SAG again, oh-so-conveniently, since you haven’t convinced anybody that it’s not important in this combination of guilds”.
I’m not here to convince anybody about what they should do with the SAG stats. The SAG Ensemble stats need to be a lot more convincing TO ME. If y’all want to believe that SAG Ensemble win equals the actors saying that it’s the most favorite movie, then y’all can knock yourself out. From where I stand, that’s y’all’s problem. 🙂 But as I said before, if you’re gonna put the SAG Ensemble win for Birdman, then I’ll rephrase my statement.
If you think PGA+SAG+DGA is more telling than GG+BFCA+SAG+ACE+BAFTA… 🙂
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. The Imitation Game
3. Boyhood
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Birdman
6. Selma
7. Whiplash
8. American Sniper
1. Birdman
2. Whiplash
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Boyhood
5. Selma
6. The Imitation Game
7. The Theory of Everything
8. American Sniper
Here are my predictions:
http://burt-oscars.blogspot.com/2015/02/birdhood-in-for-boyman.html
1. Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Birdman
3. American Sniper
4. Whiplash
5. The Theory of Everything
6. The Imitation Game
7. Selma
8. Boyhood
Claudiu: How do you find time to post so much, and at such length, and in such detail???
Here’s my vote:
1. Boyhood
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Whiplash
4. Selma
5. Birdman
6. The Imitation Game
7. The Theory of Everything
8. American Sniper
(For those who ask me why I put Birdman at 5 when I have said many times I hated it, it is because I recognize that it is an interesting, original, and serious piece of work, even though it was 100% not my thing. But I thought The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, though more “entertaining”, were utterly conventional and in both cases badly directed, with absolutely zero artistic originality and no distinct viewpoint or voice. I hated Birdman, but I admire it. I haven’t seen American Sniper, and I won’t see it, but everything I have read about it makes it sound utterly vile, and I almost NEVER like Clint Eastwood’s films, so I am pretty confident in placing it at #8.)
No more votes for the simulation? I feel tonight is probably going to be when I close voting. IMDb isn’t giving me more than a few votes a day anymore either…
“For BD, my intuition is not guiding me either way, so I’m SO FAR relying on the DGA stats.”
I was just saying what Sasha usually says – if you’re predicting something for BD, you should predict it for BP too (and vice-versa), almost every time. Especially in a year like this, when there have been no splits at major awards yet. But, hey, congrats in advance if you manage to predict an unpredictable split! It’s always a possibility – I’m sure there were SOME people who predicted Chicago-Polanski, or Crash-Lee. Just not enough of them, or vocal enough, to be remembered, perhaps…
“I have a prediction model based purely on numbers, and the two movies are neck and neck, with Boyhood and Linklater a few inches ahead (not right after DGA, but after BAFTA).”
Aha – so it IS official. I shall remember… 🙂
“If you think PGA+DGA is more telling than GG+BFCA+BAFTA, it is your interpretation of stats”
Fair enough. Though, if you ask me, it’s pretty clearly THE most logical interpretation, because (with PGA+DGA+SAG, don’t remove SAG again, oh-so-conveniently, since you haven’t convinced anybody that it’s not important in this combination of guilds) there’s more than 3 times more overlap between the guilds and AMPAS than between BAFTA and AMPAS. Plus, the BAFTA’s OVERALL predicting, record (since 2001) is actually quite poor, whereas PGA+DGA+SAG has always predicted the BP winner since 1997.
“Boyhood won SIX of those.”
Yeah, FOUR of which are from the critics, who obviously love it WAY more than the guilds, and whose voters have NO OVERLAP with the Academy’s.
”Some very ironclad stats will be broken.”
Well, not really – the editing stat is definitely NOT ironclad this year, it’s actually very, very questionable, regardless of the numbers, because of Birdman’s specific editing situation.
And the BAFTA stat is ANYTHING BUT ironclad, like I said…
“People, what was the freaking Impact of Braveheart winning WGA?”
Evidence of support from a major guild. ALL THE MORE REASON to see it that way BECAUSE it wasn’t even a prelude to an Oscar win in that category – so it wasn’t support for the screenplay, necessarily, as much as it was FOR THE MOVIE ITSELF.
“Braveheart won because it was Actor-director. Ordinary People won without Editing nom because it was Actor-director. Argo won because it was Actor-director.”
Which doesn’t make untrue the fact that the BP support for the respective movies was first evident at one or more of the 4 most important guilds, as it is for EVERY winner since (apparently) 1986.
“And just one more word about BAFTA: Chris Beachum at GoldDerby.com made a good case about how the BAFTA is arguably the most similar to the Academy; it reflects the consensus of artists from many disciplines.”
Yup – the best argument I’ve heard so far for BAFTA’s importance. Still, no preferential there… kind of a big deal… and we know who’s won the only preferential vote of the season so far.
“My point is, I don’t think Birdman or Boyhood are miles ahead of #3 in any major race”
The Globe is the ONLY bit of evidence of this. But one of the two has won everywhere else (that matters). It’s just too unlikely a future upset would have won nothing (neither BP, nor BD) from any of those groups by now.
Haha! Thanks Ryan! 🙂
I’m feeling frisky this morning and feel inclined to avoid seriousness by skewering the BP nominees. So . . . ., off the top of my head, I was wondering:
Will BOYHOOD become BOYMAN?
Will BIRDMAN eat BIRDSHIT?
Will AMERICAN SNIPER get shot down?
Will THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL become THE BEST BUDAPEST HOTEL?
Will THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING amount to nothing?
Will THE IMITATION GAME become a joke?
Will WHIPLASH become BACKLASH?
Will SELMA . . . . gosh, I can’t think of a pun for this one. Any ideas out there to complete the question for this movie?
More on An unlikely but possible Budapest upset:
-PGA loved Birdman, but probably not by much over the #2. No landslide factor.
-DGA loved Inarritu, but probably not by much over the #2. No landslide factor.
-SAG nommed Budapest for Ensemble. Feinnes got nommed at BAFTA.
-BAFTA gave it 5 wins (crossover voting within AMPAS).
Original Screenplay is neck and neck btwn. Birdman and Budapest unless Boyhood surprises.
My point is, I don’t think Birdman or Boyhood are miles ahead of #3 in any major race and, if Budapest IS the assumed phantom “#3” in the preferential Best Picture race, it could rise up where votes against Birdman and votes against Boyhood occur.
Its interesting to think about.
Holy crap! I was just at the Deadline Hollywood site and there are so many (6) Birdman ads…they really are getting out the push for it. They could change the name of the site to Deadline Birdman.
It IS interesting to think about a Grand Budapest shock win simply because it DOES seem like the type of movie that will have 1s, but most importantly, mostly 2s and 3s. And we already know it is likely to win 3-5 other Oscars on the night.
”Yes, stats are very very important. But either when Boyhood or Birdman wins, some very ironclad stats will be broken. If you think PGA+DGA is more telling than GG+BFCA+BAFTA, it is your interpretation of stats, an opinion, not the stats themselves.”
At the end of the day, I think the Academy members vote on the movies, not the statistics. It’ll depend on what appeals to them. And that’s assuming they watch the screeners. It’s a snapshot in time. And we’ll never know how close the results were, or weren’t. Yes, you could divine some pattern, but as Alan of NY notes, ”Some very ironclad stats will be broken.” And just one more word about BAFTA: Chris Beachum at GoldDerby.com made a good case about how the BAFTA is arguably the most similar to the Academy; it reflects the consensus of artists from many disciplines. Oh, well, only time will tell.
And let’s not forget that all important component AMPAS is famous for when they vote: SENTIMENT.
In that regards, I think “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is going to win. Quite laughing. I’m serious. See post directly above.
And the winner is . . . “The Grand Budapest Hotel”!
Birdienest81,
I’m not ignoring the stats. If Boyhood didn’t win BAFTA and Birdman lost badly there, I wouldn’t revert to my gut instinct. BAFTA should be PART of the stats collection. Yes, stats are very very important. But either when Boyhood or Birdman wins, some very ironclad stats will be broken. If you think PGA+DGA is more telling than GG+BFCA+BAFTA, it is your interpretation of stats, an opinion, not the stats themselves. Birdman won 2 trophies, one for BP and one BD. Boyhood won SIX of those. I have a prediction model based purely on numbers, and the two movies are neck and neck, with Boyhood and Linklater a few inches ahead (not right after DGA, but after BAFTA).
Guild members are “high end”? Well, I don’t know about that. I know quite a few guild members, from PGA, SAG to DGA. And trust me, a lot of them are not “high end”, whatever that means. Many haven’t worked in the industry for years and some work in completely unrelated fields to make end meets.
@ Alan of NY
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, man! Now let’s hope that at least one of your theories turn out right. 🙂
“Again – when was the last time the Academy awarded a film about children? Ordinary People, kinda….. Oliver, kinda….”
It’s a children growing up to become an adult. So… Just 6 years ago. Slumdog Millionaire.
People, what was the freaking Impact of Braveheart winning WGA? It couldn’t even win the Oscar in that category, losing to The Usual Suspect (at least a great upset in that terrible year). You know how many major awards did The Usual Suspects get for screenplay? Only the BAFTAs.
Braveheart won because it was Actor-director. Ordinary People won without Editing nom because it was Actor-director. Argo won because it was Actor-director. Ron Howard was also an actor, but doesn’t really compare to Affleck in terms of popularity. The Academy couldn’t feel bad for his snub like they felt with Affleck because they had Mel Gibson there. In the end, who rules the vote are the actors. That’s why only 3 animated features ever received BP nominations, that’s why things like Ordinary People, Braveheart and Argo happens. That’s why BP/BD rarely split. And that’s a fear I have regarding Boyhood. Birdman is about actors.
Again – when was the last time the Academy awarded a film about children? Ordinary People, kinda….. Oliver, kinda….
You should rant more often, Al. You’re quite good at it.
🙂
I don’t know why, but I feel I need to express myself right now, in a rant like way.
I am sick and tired of reading people say that Boyhood and Birdman are gimmicks. Guess what people, as Sasha, Ryan, and Craig already pointed out in a previous Oscar Podcast, EVERY MOVIE IS A GIMMICK!!! Please, for the love of motion pictures, get over it!!! AAAHH!!!! Who the fuck cares that Boyhood filmed over 12 years!?!? Does it matter any more?? What it is is what it is. It can’t change itself now, nor should it.. (Sometimes I wish I could just go to sleep, and wake up 5 minutes before the Oscar ceremony starts).
Take my last paragraph, and apply it to Birdman. I LOVE that it was filmed the way it was. A LOT of other people do, Including the fucking DGA, PGA, and SAGS. HA HA HA to you haters!!!
You know what else could be described as a “gimmick”?? ALL book to movie adaptations. The “gimmick” is that it was a book first. YES, it was. AAAHHH!!!
Okay, I’m done.
I still luv the chatter. Carry on. 🙂
Oh, and I strongly suggest that Boyhood fans pray the WGA picks the film for Original Screenplay. Otherwise, your looking at a really improbable (yet not impossible) precedent ever since the existence of the four (WGA/SAG/DGA/PGA) awards since ’96 (Braveheart won WGA Original category in ’96; Crash won WGA and SAG. Argo won all four).
@Alan of NY
If you wanna go with your gut instinct and declare a “Boyman” split in BP and BD, And I understand you don’t appreciate Birdman the way others do, but apparently what we’ve seen so far, the high end guilds have declared their yes towards the film. Honestly, if I wanted to vote outside the facts, I woulda pick Selma. However, I’m standing with Claudiu here because I do believe you can’t just ignore stats completely. There’s a reason why the studios and filmmakers often pump money into campaigning towards these guilds — to convince them to see the movie, vote for it, and build a consensus. In this day and age of Oscar season where there is so little, so time, the guilds are the surest way to build consensus. I’m not saying that Oscar voters should behave like sheep, but we have to face the music sometimes. So let’s be respectful to the facts while rooting for our picks. As Neil DeGrasse Tyson said…
“If you want to assert a truth, first make sure it’s not just an opinion that you desperately want to be true.”
You Boyhood people are as boring as the movie . Yeah ! great original concept . In the Andy Hardy movies from 1937 to 1946 Mickey Rooney aged from 16 to 25 returning home after fighting in World War 2 . His mother , father and sister were all played by the same people . Than we have the Francois Truffaut films and Michael Apted ‘s docs . Boy that Linlklater is a master filmmaker. Regarding Mark Harris and Harvey Weinstein’s over wrought Immitation Game campaign . If Harvey had spent more time building up The Immigrant instead of the Immitation Game the Oscars would be a lot different .
@Juan and @Alan – thank you both for helping turn my crappy day into something infinitely better! I appreciate you connecting with my sentiments. And Alan – for you to even place myself and Roger Ebert in the same sentence – high praise. Motivation to brush up on Oscar history even more!
”I believe this somewhat accurately reflects why Boyhood doesn’t connect with most people.”
Unless you can cite some poll that has surveyed ”most people,” this is baseless speculation. As for the ”Honest Trailers” spoof, it’s lame. There’s nothing in it that hasn’t been mentioned on these boards weeks ago: ”It’s just a gimmick.” ”The Harry Potter movies already did this.” Nothing new. Zzzzzz.
On the other hand, Deadline’s Pete Hammond just posted a fascinating look at all the last-minute Oscar campaigning. Though it’s anecdotal, Hammond cites one longtime Oscar voter who just got around to seeing ”Boyhood” last weekend. WTF? This is a movie that’s been out since July!
http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscars-campaigning-still-going-strong-as-academy-has-one-week-left-to-make-a-decision-1201370017/
Claudiu, I’m just throwing the BP/BD split rationale out there. While my guts say Boyhood for BP. For BD, my intuition is not guiding me either way, so I’m SO FAR relying on the DGA stats. But it’s not official.
“I could see why they chose Birdman over Boyhood at the PGA, but I admit that the DGA for Birdman was a huge surprise for me and I don’t have an explanation for it. Do you have any idea, Alan?”
Juan, I’ve been musing over the results and tried to find explanations. The DGA is a very large group, 15,000 or so? And they’re spread all over the country, ADs, productions managers, TV directors, etc. It’s not the “elitist” group of cineastes I don’t think. They understand very well the nuts and bolts of the craft of directing, but I guess they are less attuned to the vision, conceptual aspect of filmmaking. Birdman looks very directed, stylish and obvious. Boyhood is very casual and straightforward and appears rather “generic” maybe to a lot of people? These members aren’t necessarily well-verse with the works of Linklater? Members living in the two coasts might know Linklater well, but in the middle of the country, they probably aren’t that familiar with him and his signature vision. And Linklater just made Boyhood look very effortless (which of course requires genius and tremendous skills). Like anything in these types of awards, whoever look like they work the hardest and the “most” get rewarded.
I think maybe Clint Eastwood could have taken a lot of votes that would normally go to the other quintessential American Linklater? In the previous 3 times that he’s nominated for the DGA, Eastwood won 2 of them. He’s quite popular. And in a close race, that could make a difference. Maybe him not being in the race for the Oscar would help Linklater out?
I believe this somewhat accurately reflects why Boyhood doesn’t connect with most people. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSZg1Wy7H0k
Without the 12 year gimmick, it is just another decent flick. Birdman, in my opinion, is the vastly superior film, in terms of story, acting, emotion, direction, you name it. Who cares that the director is not American. Didn’t seem to bother last year with all the articles begging for Steve McQueen to win.
Whoever said Whiplash is this year’s best film/perfection. I totally agree. Selma would’ve been my next choice. Then Birdman. Boyhood would be #7 out of the nominees, above American Sniper only. So I won’t complain too much if Birdman wins.
“The stats help me understand the climate, but your gut instinct should be something you should check with.”
Clearly. It’s the one advantage we have over a computer program that would process the stats alone. Especially in tighter races. Which doesn’t mean there isn’t always a SINGLE statistical favorite, however small the difference between it and 2nd place may be. But, if there are solid chances of an upset, figuring out if it WILL or WILL NOT happen is best left to the intuition. My intuition isn’t telling me anything clear right now, so I’m going with the stats. Once I clear my head a bit (from the almost non-stop debating I’ve been involved in these past few days) and analyze some more, I’ll probably get a pretty clear feeling as to what I think will likely win, between Birdman and Boyhood. And it could very well go against the stats, and tell me Boyhood will win. Which doesn’t mean I’ll change my OFFICIAL prediction (I just go with the stats 100% in BP – because I care more about the stats holding up than about getting the winner right based on my intuition, which I see little value in, as it hasn’t got much to do with logic and history, which is what I’m most interested in when it comes to the BP race), but it WILL affect some things, like what I bet on, how much, what I do in the various Oscar predicting contests etc.
“Last year, when things were really tense between 12 Years and Gravity and the stats were a bit up and down ”
Gravity was never ahead for a second. It was always reasonably close (not Boyhood-close, but close), but never ahead.
“So since in my estimation that Birdman can’t win BP, Inarritu should get the Oscar.”
So you’re predicting a third consecutive split, in a year in which there have been NO splits at any of the major awards ceremonies so far (DGA+PGA = Birdman, Globes/BFCA/BAFTA = Boyhood BP/BD)… Good luck with that! Birdman’s either winning both, or losing both – personal opinion. If it can win BD without the editing nomination, it’s winning BP too. This is profoundly obvious to me, even more obvious than that Gravity would only win BD last year.
I know you can MAKE A CASE for your split scenario – but you’re saying you’re not predicting this based on stats, so just don’t! I’m telling you, based on similar considerations, that I just don’t buy it. That’s all. No need for us both to force each-other into writing endless replies about this one as well, like we did about the SAG, PGA and DGA, in turn. I’m tired of all that. Just accept that I have a different opinion and move on to the next reply, please! 🙂 I’d like to be able to make a comment on your predictions without having to then defend my comment over and over for the next 3 days… As I’m sure others would, in my case, so, if anyone wants to make a (critical) comment about my predictions in the future, but doesn’t want to get into a whole stats dispute, which is what I usually do, just add a disclaimer such as the one I’ve just added here, and I promise I’ll just accept your comment as a difference of opinion! (Unless it’s obviously impossible for me to do so, because you’re challenging my way of thinking/interpreting the stats, in some way – which I don’t think is what I’m doing here, with Alan’s comment; I’m just stating a personal opinion I feel very strongly about, like I do about, for example, American Sniper having 0.00% chances of winning BP).
“For BD, I’m not as sure and it’s because of the DGA incredible stat.” Yeah, I was shocked when they announced Iñárritu as a winner. I really tought that they were going to recognize Linklater vision and dedication. I could see why they chose Birdman over Boyhood at the PGA, but I admit that the DGA for Birdman was a huge surprise for me and I don’t have an explanation for it. Do you have any idea, Alan?
Dave,
Your latest post, very nice! This morning I was reading the Roger Ebert article somebody linked in the other topic when he correctly predicted a “winner” in Crash back in 2006. I was struck how, in the whole piece, like what you just did, he never once mentioned stats. He talked about the themes of the movie and discussed the climate of the industry at that time.
I am a stats geek, but I also view the race in the similar way as you and Roger, every year. The stats help me understand the climate, but your gut instinct should be something you should check with.
Last year, when things were really tense between 12 Years and Gravity and the stats were a bit up and down (not like this year but pretty topsy turvy nonetheless), I always had this feeling that there was just no way that Gravity could ever be announced as best picture at the Oscar. Not because of the stats, but because of what it’s about. I just couldn’t see it. And I have the similar feeling this year toward Birdman (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). Even its title is just too dang weird for the Oscars.
I was ready to give it to Birdman though right after DGA. How can you deny that “trifecta”, right? But BAFTA reinforced my previous gut instinct again. Not just because Boyhood swept the 2 biggest prizes there (because it was expected as it was the front runner less than 24 hours before). But I’m struck by the big loss that Birdman had there. It was nominated in TEN categories. So it wasn’t like it would be forgotten. This almost snub reflects the “at-odds” feeling I’ve predicted that general Academy members would have toward this movie. Had it won the screenplay, I would feel differently.
RIGHT NOW, for BP, I’m still predicting Boyhood. For BD, I’m not as sure and it’s because of the DGA incredible stat. For the last 18 straight years, every single DGA winner went on to win either the BD or BP at the Oscars. So since in my estimation that Birdman can’t win BP, Inarritu should get the Oscar.
@ DAVEINPROGRESS
Eloquent post, man! I think you are absolutely right. This race is unprecedented, and it is obvious that some of the trends and stats will be broken. In a situation like this, one must follow the heart. Some will choose Birdman for its succsess with the guilds and that would be totally valid, but I am gonna stick with Boyhood till the end. Something tells me that the Brits got it right.
“But I could also start a site just dedicated to the underpresented. And probably should.”
Please don’t. As much as I would support such a project, I also can’t help but think it’s like seating these smaller films at the kiddie table–in my opinion, Dear White People is the best film of the year but it’s mostly been relegated to those horrid “First Feature” and “Breakthrough” categories, which fill me with despair. The best is the best, don’t marginalize the best because it hasn’t been accepted into the conversation by those who crowned themselves the grown-ups.
It could be another split–Boyhood for film and Birdman director. Or maybe vv.
My take on the Academy’s choices for Best Picture in any given year is not about stats – there are plenty of others to dissect those in making predix for the big prize. I have always looked at the list they have in front of them, and considered from their perspective (if i can, which is tricky trying to get inside 6000 heads, when sometimes I cannot get inside my own!) which movie is the most important one for them, at THAT time . Importance is a hugely subjective word and concept, but having analysed the Oscars since 1977 and retrospectively looked at its history, there are patterns and themes that for me, emerge. I don’t get the love for Argo (especially with Life of Pi that year), but the screw up with noms turned that upside down. BAFTA too – go figure why they endorsed it. They chose the flimsy Artist over the exquisite and soulful Hugo. Their choices often reek of gravitas and substance – Platoon, Deer Hunter, Schindler’s List, Hurt locker, but then again they have also gone for sentiment Terms of Endearment, Forest Gump, Million Dollar Baby, Kings Speech. Style over substance showed up for me anyway with Amadeus, Chicago, The Artist. There’s the epic: Ghandi, Last Emperor, Out of Africa and Titanic. Paybacks for prestigious careers- No country for old men, Departed, Some choices do not fit into these: Shakespeare in Love, Silence of the Lambs etc,
At the end of the day, they choose what is in front of them. It may be an indie movie but Boyhood has the scope of an epic (its production and its aim to track and observe the rite of passage) as well an importance – all men begin as boys and take their journey. AMPAS could have taken the Gravity train all the way last year but did not, they chose a weightier film. This year they also have a choice – the psychotic elements of Birdman (which i loved), the caper comedy Grand Budapest, the emotive biopic/love story melange of Theory, the historical drama Selma;.the two hander Whiplash, the period character piece Imitation Game and the war piece American Sniper and the beautiful simplicity of the coming of age story Boyhood.
I am going to not be so caught up in what the stats tell us this year – SAG, PGA, DGA and instead look at the list of what AMPAS has for its ultimate prize.
Boyhood is arguably (yes i am ready for all the contrarians) the most important movie, and AMPAS have shown many times (with good taste) that they can and will recognise the most important movie of the year.
and is very good iN STILL ALICE. Julianne is obviously more than very good. She is surely one of the 5 best working actresses in Hollywood.
I think Rosamund Pike really is the best peformance of the year along with Jake Gyllenhall. But Julianne Moore is a career achievement award. At least one weight the Academy is going to take of its shoulders. And one of the most shameful ones. She MUST have at least an Oscar and for me should have won the 2 in 2002 and for Boogie Nights. There are 2 ways you can win an Oscar deservingly: when your achievement is incredibly remarkable or when you are SO overdue. Julianne is SO overdue and is very good.
Glenn Close, Annette Bening, Laura Linney, Naomi Watts and Viola, next. But none of them receive the ammount of great roles they deserve.
And there is another special case for career achievement. The ones that on average are by far the best working but individually, there is almost always one achivement that is better. I’m talking, of course, about Alexandre Desplat and Roger Deakins. It’s ridiculous that neither of those have an Oscar. I think Birdman’s cinematography fits the incredibly remarkable criteria and is a lock for the win. As much as I don’t like The Theory of Everything, the score is very good, but not a landmark. There is space for Desplat and the guy deserve it. For any of the two.
“even more luckily for UK filmmakers. the BAFTAs specifically reserve two special categories that ONLY honor films and filmmakers from the UK.”
Paul King’s Paddington (Sally Hawkins, Imelda Staunton, Nicole Kidman) is a great example of this category honoring unique and marvelous films.
– Watermelons
I agree that Norton’s performance was more fascinating to watch for its layers, but I can see how Oscar-ish Simmons’ turn is in Whiplash. He does more than chew the scenery, he devours it whole! He has been a working actor for decades and it is a great narrative to step put from behind bigger names and roles to score big with voters. Norton is a remarkable actor too. Re Julianne, she is so much better than the movie she is in; but again there is a strong award narrative for her. She also makes Alice completely her own and does it with such dignity and elegance; it is hard to look past her.
Brilliant post, but I do take issue with you on the obsession with both Birdman and Boyhood.
Both are films that are fundamentally self-referential, steeped in the audacity of their theme and technique.
For whatever it is worth, American Sniper was the only film that actually achieved a real resonance within the broader culture and polity. That should count.
Lastly, can’t “get” how Julianne Moore and JK Simmons keep walking away with awards in the run-up to the Oscars. Rosamund Pike’s performance sustained an otherwise overdone thriller. Edward Norton offered both comedy and pathos when one wouldn’t have expected it.
”My passion is about how great (and very gay) The Imitation Game is (I’m still researching and writing that piece).”
For a piece on how ”Imitation Game” isn’t so great or very gay, here’s the Daily Beast’s Tim Teeman: ”Academy members, don’t be blackmailed. Don’t give in to its rainbow campaigning mantle.”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/02/03/the-imitation-game-s-big-gay-lie.html
1.whiplash
2.birdman
3.the grand budapest hotel
4.boyhood
5.american sniper
6.the theory of everything
7.selma
8.rhe the imitation game
Thanks, Joseph! Counted!
1. Whiplash
2. Boyhood
3. Birdman
4. Selma
5. The Theory of Everything
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. American Sniper
8. The Imitation Game
Let s begin 2015 best picture race:
Star wars VII or Avengers 02
“Some years there are five movies that pass my personal bar of “if this won Best Picture, I wouldn’t be upset.” Other years there are eight, nine, ten or even more.”
I have about 6-7 this year. Last year I had 9-10, but the top 4-5 were all stronger than Birdman this year (just to keep things in perspective on my love of Birdman – I DO love it, it IS my no.1 of this year, but it’s very likely not even in my top 5 for LAST YEAR).
“Whiplash was the year’s best movie. Perfection.”
I don’t really think it’s the YEAR’S BEST (though it’s not far from it either), but I definitely can’t argue with it being perfection in many ways. That movie is just brilliantly put together…
“She loves period films, let’s put it that way!”
My mom too, actually. Lincoln’s political talkiness bored her, though (I absolutely love it, even more now than I did in 2012).
“or practically anything losing to Argo.”
So you share my opinion that it was actually THE WORST of the nominees that year – cool! 🙂
“It seems like “The Artist” is experiencing a bit of backlash right now, which isn’t surprising since it’s such an unusual movie, yet I feel like in 5-10 years, people are going to go back to it and applaud the Academy for recognizing such a unique piece of work as the Best Picture of its year.”
I seriously doubt it. If there’s a backlash now already, I don’t see a way back from that. Doesn’t seem at all like the “cult classic” type (and probably no BP winner can ever aspire to that status, due to its inevitably high profile, derived from the win itself).
“Hazanavicius is not even on par with Joss Whedon”
Whedon IS pretty awesome, though!… 🙂 BTVS is easily in my top 3 favorite TV series of all time (and Buffy is my favorite character in anything, ever).
“But what about a tie for BEST PICTURE???”
Can’t happen – the Academy’s tie-breaking rules don’t allow it, apparently. Although I HAD wondered at some point, earlier in the season, what would happen if the two movies tied with the same number of 1st’s, 2nd’s, 3rd’s etc. – a perfect tie. I doubt they’d draw lots or anything like that, so I guess it IS possible, though, for all intents and purposes, it’s really just not.
“hasn’t Boyhood been WAY more a frontrunner than Lincoln was, until the guilds?? Don’t we have more reason to be hopeful this time around? I think so, a bit.”
Yup, clearly. WAY more competitive and way more of a threat to the front-runner than Lincoln (or anything else that year) was to Argo.
“Besides, should Boyhood win, I would rather congratulate you, Sasha, for predicting the winner as opposed to cave into pressure and acknowledge Wells might have been correct.”
Seconded! I respect people who don’t predict the favorite! I do it too, as often as I think it’s reasonably plausible, especially for competitions where I don’t care as much about the stats as I do when it comes to the BP Oscar race.
“Well it served me last year with 12 Years a Slave which DID win. :)”
Ah… good times!… But, of course, 12 Years WAS the favorite – and a pretty big one, stats-wise.
“I’d still be cool with Birdman winning Picture if Linklater were to win Director.”
I wish we could make that trade right now!…
Well shit, if Keaton loses I will throw my popcorn at the TV and run around the room screaming in madness. Yet I still predict it to happen so I am buying extra popcorn. I wish it could happen, I believe it can, but I don’t believe it WILL. One can only make so many wishes until all the popcorn in the world is gone, and he’ll still need more. I do wish Keaton won, I do want to predict him very badly, because I know it is such a pleasant feeling when you go with your prediction and believe it, but I won’t because I’ve learned my lesson and the disappointment is too big. That said I am on the other side of the BP race from Sasha. I do want Birdman to win because it is better (IMO), but I also want Boyhood to win, because it will stand out in years to come as something truly extraordinary on a completely different level. The story of Boyhood is life itself, and so it would be an admirable winner. And I am opposite of Sasha because I really do think Boyhood has the edge.
Antoinette, I’m bumming out, because Whiplash won’t be released on Blu-ray, or on iTunes, until February 24, the Tuesday after Oscar Sunday. GAH!! It sucks! I never got a real chance to see it in theaters, and now I can’t see it until the awards are already given out. Oh well… 🙁
Whiplash was the year’s best movie. Perfection.
This is driving me nuts. It hasn’t played here yet and there’s an actor in it who’s from here. I hope I get to see it before the show. All the British on the BAFTA red carpet were saying they loved it too.
Best Picture : Birdman/whiplash
Best Director: Birdman
Best Actor Michael keaton, Birdman
Best Actress Rosamund Pike, gone girl
Supporting
JK Simmons, Whiplash and Patricia arquette, boyhood
Original Screenplay
Birdman
Adapted Screenplay
Whiplash
Editing
Whiplash
Cinematography
Birdman
Production Design
Interstellar
Costume
Grand Budapest Hotel
Makeup
Guardians of the galaxy
Score
The grand budapest hotel
Visual Effects
Interstellar
Song
The Lego movie
Sound
Whiplash
Sound Editing
Birdman
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Not quite, her favorite movies in the last three years were Philomena, Lincoln and Midnight in Paris. She loves period films, let’s put it that way!
“Claudiu, funny, because my mom (she’s 60) deeply loved The Grand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood, liked The Imitation Game and hated Birdman :D”
Ah, yes… but does she have a history of almost always liking the same movies the Academy has liked the most, as my mom does? 🙂
Claudiu, funny, because my mom (she’s 60) deeply loved The Grand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood, liked The Imitation Game and hated Birdman 😀
To the point being discussed in the last few comments, I see where Sasha is coming from. I am Italian and Italian film has been really, really poor lately, bar some exceptions as The Great Beauty. Our domestic market as been cannibalized by Hollywood and British movies and now even French movies open big in Italy. Italian film industry can only seem to offer stale, cliched, embarassing comedies or pretentious drama movies. This is because horror movies, blockbusters, action and more ambitious comedy flicks are from Hollywood or London or Paris so Italian producers and directors just don’t bother to do better than they do, which is quite sad for an industry that won more Foreign Language Film Oscars than any other, an industry that graced the world of film with the likes of Fellini, De Sica, Rossellini, Germi, Monicelli, Visconti.
Sasha’s point of view may sound unpopular but I understand it perfectly, especially when directors like Fincher and Malick are snubbed in favor of Hooper (an honest, above-average director) and Hazanavicius.
If it was not international, why does the live telecast’s viewership come 90% outside of USA?
95% if we believe in that one Billion viewer’s bullshit 🙂
Well . . . after reading all of these blogs today I am just hoping against hope that something as innocuous as “The Grand Budapest Hotel” overcomes all of these split votes to surge toward the finish line. Wouldn’t that be refreshing?
I think TGBH is a movie which appeals to the older white guy crowd of AMPAS (oops, am I demographing too much?) and perhaps the older white gal crowd as well. It’s a vote they would all feel comfortable in making. They love that “the little train that could” hug they can give a movie at Oscar time. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if AMPAS surprised all of us, avoided the Boyhood/Birdman division altogether, and simply voted for this delightful comedy from Wes Anderson.
Personally? “The Imitation Game” was my favorite film of the year. And I loved “Boyhood” as well; I would like to see Linklater recognized as Best Director of the year, or at least throw him Best Original Screenplay. I love the effort that it took to get “Boyhood” as a project off and running, and it will be remembered years from now. But the movie I will be able to watch again and again is “The Imitation Game”. I just think it’s everything I want to see in a film (historical drama / great acting / interesting characters / involving story / beautifully written screenplay. The movie sheds light on an old social issue where a man is victimized who should have been knighted!
Hollywood has always been diverse and VERY foreign. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the major studios like Universal, Fox, Warner, MGM were all founded by Europeans. Hollywood is located in California, and hell yeah, I’d shoot a film there too if I needed all that sunlight.
There are awards for strictly American films, but Hollywood is, and has always been international. And I see Academy Awards as a Hollywood thing.
So, now Birdman is not an American Movie?, LOL.
This talk about Inarritu being foreign is pretty strange (and silly) to say the least. I guess I missed last year all the references to Steve McQueen being foreign. I’m guessing being born in certain countries made you more foreign.
You are all acting like Boyhood is losing to The Theory of Everything lol.
I’m re-posting this here from two other threads, for those who haven’t had a chances to vote in those. I will count all of the votes, in all 3 threads, at IMDb and from Ryan’s Twitter link, when I think it’s unlikely too many more people would vote anymore (should happen in the next 2-3 days tops), and post the results (and round-by-round descriptions) – probably in this thread, as well as at IMDb, of course.
“OK, I said I was going to do this thing after the BAFTA’s, and this seems like a decent thread that should attract enough attention to give me as many results as possible. If not, then I’ll try in other threads as well. Here’s my yearly Best Picture Preferential Ballot Simulation! Past winners:
2011 – The Social Network
2012 – not held
2013 – Zero Dark Thirty
2014 – Her
So, anybody who wants to help me out in trying to get as big a sample size as possible (and, thus, a result as relevant as possible): rank the 8 Best Picture contenders as you would if you were an Academy voter! Preferably, if you’ve seen them all, or at least the ones most likely to win (I won’t say which I think those are, because I might influence voting). Even if not, and you still want to vote (though I would recommend not to), rank them all anyway, to make the results more relevant!
The results will be a combination of the votes in this thread and the votes I collect at IMDb. I will, of course, post the results both here and there.
Here is my vote:
1. Birdman
2. Selma
3. The Theory of Everything
4. Boyhood
5. Whiplash
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. The Imitation Game
8. American Sniper
Good luck to everyone’s favorites – may the best-liked movie win! 🙂
Also, I was thinking there’s probably a very clear reason (though possibly not the only one) why the eventual BP winner has never won my preferential ballot simulation so far – the backlash due to it being the favorite! 🙂 It spreads A LOT more quickly online than with Oscar voters, I imagine…
Sucks that I didn’t do it the year The Artist won, to have a clearer picture of this – but I suspect something like The Tree of Life or Midnight in Paris probably would have won that year, anyway. (Based on this poll – the 2011 results -, for example: http://www.imdb.com/list/ls073932316/)”
***
Also, I had an interesting thought: I had my mom (she’s 51) contribute her own BP ballot this year (she saw all the movies with me), and realized she’s a lot like (what WE generally think) Academy voters are like, in a lot of ways. She has The Theory of Everything in 1st (British biopic), she specifically said she thought The Grand Budapest Hotel was an amazing movie (and I remember her reaction after seeing it too, of course), and possibly her favorite, but, since she prefers dramas to comedies (same as the Academy), she is putting it 2nd behind her other favorite. She didn’t LOVE Birdman, but liked it (so, not so divisive), and has it in 3rd place, just ahead of Boyhood (which she really hated at one point for winning everything under the sun – we’ve been watching the awards shows this season together as well -, despite liking a lot of things about it, and she HASN’T voted it last, in spite of that, but 4th – I explained the system to her before she voted, so she knew she could do it -, so block-voting, like someone suggested, is probably not likely). Then The Imitation Game 5th, Whiplash, Selma and, last… American Sniper.
Also, her favorite movie I’ve shown her in the last few years is The King’s Speech. And she didn’t like Lincoln too much (she liked Argo a bit more). She really liked Crash, I also remember (I did too, then showed it to her, and she really liked it and rooted for it at the Oscars that year, like me – she never saw Brokeback Mountain, though, but she’s definitely at least a touch homophobic, so I’m pretty sure she would have hated it, which is why I never showed it to her). And other things that show she has very similar tastes to the Academy’s. I do, too, to a certain extent, but not quite as much. I’m far less relevant as an example here. 🙂
On the other hand, last year her favorite was Captain Phillips… 🙂 So, she’s not a COMPLETELY reliable barometer of what Oscar will go for, of course. Even, so, she’s very “good” at it, if you will, and to me this says some (of course, very debatable) things. That Birdman might just be edging out Boyhood for a lot of voters that have neither in 1st place, and is definitely not as divisive as anticipated (which confirms the PGA result), that Sniper still has no chance, that The Theory of Everything is very well liked, and unlikely to go home empty-handed, that The Grand Budapest Hotel is, indeed, very well liked, but probably won’t win it (since even its most ardent supporters aren’t placing it 1st, because it’s a comedy, in my mom’s case – because it’s too “light”, in other cases), but should win a lot of tech Oscars (as is the general opinion right now, of course), that American Sniper indeed has no chance (too divisive, at best), that The Imitation Game is, indeed, not as well-liked as its 9 nominations would indicate (my mom loves British movies and biopics, and actually really liked it when she saw it, but has just liked other things more since – so it’s just not memorable enough for her either).
I don’t think this is indiscreet of me – she’d have no problem admitting to and openly discussing all of these things herself…
Oops…wrong post.
@Claudiu Dobre
I think you should definitely read this piece about the Oscar race based on statistics. It might give you some insight:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/birdman-boyhood-dga-bafta/
Thanks Ryan. To be clear, I don’t think Sasha of all people is anti international. If that came across I do apologize.
It’s interesting what you say about how it takes a foreigner sometimes to see it clearer and McQueen is a good example.
I hear you that it’s worthwhile to nurture homegrown talent, more than once every five years or so. Totally agree
You know what the interesting thing about that is though? You say “like other countries do.” That’s true that other countries do do that a lot and we are more likely to reward foreign born talent. But isn’t that also a good thing? I mean, the thing that is unique an awesome about the history of our country is that – save for bigots on the right- we embrace foreigners and we let them in and make them a part of our story.
That may be what’s hapoening here. Maybe not with Hazanavicius and The Artist but certainly with brokeback or with 12 Years or even Birdman- we welcome the foreigners perspective because after all that’s what our country’s story has always been. That melting pot, etc.
I share your concern that we don’t nurture more home grown talent. Like I share the concern with not nurturing more role for women. But I don’t get as concerned/upset/annoyed (or whatever the right word is, sorry if I’m mischaracterized) that we are rewarded foreign born talent.
I hope I’m coming across clear here. To me: It’s annoying that we don’t nurture more roles for women and it’s annoying that in their stead we nurture more roles about men being faux heroes. To me, by contrast, it’s annoying we don’t nurture more local talent, but not annoying that we reward foreign born talent at least not when it’s good like Brokeback or Birdman.
The annoying thing about awards is that only one movie can win and it’s annoying that not both Birdman and boyhood can win, but at least it’s not Argo or The Kings Speech or The Artist
Birdman is not the movie of about or made in Mexico in any way shape or form. It’s a movie about America 100pct through and through.
Jorge, naturally, I agree with you, Birdman is a thoroughly American film.
Just last night, recording the Oscar Podcast, Sasha, Craig and I were talking about the interesting facets of American society that foreign-born directors are able to see with “fresh eyes” in ways maybe a lot of Americans are unable to do.
It would be a gross oversimplification to reduce in to: We Americans can’t see the forest for the trees, but it’s probably true that we can get lost so deep into the woods to clearly see how to get out of the thicket where we’re mired.
That could easily explain why nobody until British Steve McQueen was able to get a proper handle on a film about American slavery. As Sasha said last night, British Sam Mendes showed us American suburbia in ways no American had done before. I brought up John Schlesinger and Midnight Cowboy. Today we’re reminded that Billy Wilder brought his European eye to see America in ways that no one had managed before. At the very first Oscars, F.W. Murnau told us an American fable that he created from his German background an his movie Sunrise won an Oscar only a year after he set foot on American turf.
Where would American cinema be without Lang, Chaplin, Curtiz, Wilder, von Stroheim, Preminger, Murnau, Lang, and (guh!) Hitchcock!
(although I think a strong argument could be made that all those directors chose to ASSIMILATE into Hollywood — and that’s not something guys like McQueen or Hazanavicius intend to do (thank god).)
Since we ALL KNOW of Sasha’s admiration for these immigrant filmmakers, it’s just nuts to try to portray Sasha as anti-international. My god, some of the finest things Sasha has ever written for this site have been her ecstatic raves from Cannes. Sasha is always saying how much she wishes America film industry would take a lesson from the national filmmaking systems in place in Europe. But most of us would like to see that happen by encouraging our own American treasures with honors instead of this unsettling recent trend of ignoring American talent to slobber all over the likes of Tom Hooper.
So, Jorge, it’s not about anyone trying to re-define Brokeback as a Taiwanese movie. Nobody wants to create weird arbitrary ghettos or ill-fitting pigeonholes like that.
We just want to see American talent nurtured, the same same way every other country in the world honors and nurture’s the talents of it native-born citizens.
We love talented filmmakers from all around the world. We just want to see an American (USA) director get an Oscar every 5 years or so.
Absolutely, there’s wayyy more than plenty of homegrown talent to be able to turn in worthy line-ups in every category, you guys know I’m always trying to be all inclusive and wish the academy were more internationally-oriented — granted as long as they picked quality stuff — but here’re my
“Xenophobic” Awards (I tried to keep it American, but actually included all native “English speakers” regardless of nationality as long as I know they’ve regularly worked with America, reek of Hollywood, The U.S. of A., American dollars from Americans, are not resentful anti-Americans or “critics of certain aspects of America”, Spielberg haters, etc. — however, Americans, South Africans, Australians, UK-sians all look the same to me — yes, that’s right — I can’t tell them apart!)
[Alphabetical order? I’ll do my best]
Best Picture
BOYHOOD
GODZILLA
GONE GIRL
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
INHERENT VICE
INTERSTELLAR
MAPS TO THE STARS
NIGHTCRAWLER
SELMA
UNDER THE SKIN
Best Director
Richard Linklater – BOYHOOD
David Fincher – GONE GIRL
West Anderson – THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Paul Thomas Anderson – INHERENT VICE
Ava DuVernay – SELMA
Best Actor
Ellar Coltrane – BOYHOOD
Ralph Fiennes – THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Joaquin Phoenix – INHERENT VICE
Jake Gyllenhaal – NIGHTCRAWLER
David Oyelowo – SELMA
Best Actress
Gugu Mbatha-Raw – BEYOND THE LIGHTS
Rosamund Pike – GONE GIRL
Hillary Swank – THE HOMESMAN
Tilda Swinton – ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE
Scarlett Johansson – UNDE THE SKIN
Best Supporting Actor
Ethan Hawke – BOYHOOD
Tommy Lee Jones – THE HOMESMAN
Josh Brolin – INHERENT VICE
Tom Wilkinson – SELMA
J. K. Simmons – WHIPLASH
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette – BOYHOOD
Katherine Waterston – INHERENT VICE
Anne Hathaway – INTERSTELLAR
Julianne Moore – MAPS TO THE STARS
Rene Russo – NIGHTCRAWLER
“I’d still be cool with Birdman winning Picture if Linklater were to win Director. Also, throw in Anderson for Screenplay. Linklater deserves Director for what he achieved, even if I think Birdman is slightly more impressive and a more enjoyable watch, for me.
In any case, one of Birdman, Boyhood, or Budapest winning the big one is great as a representation of 2014.”
I agree
“You can usually take it for granted when we say “American movies” we are not talking about the films of Peru, ok?”
Once again, nothing to do with you at all or your/ this site’s use of “American movies”. Please do not think I was attacking you, as I have absolutely no need to do that.
I’d still be cool with Birdman winning Picture if Linklater were to win Director. Also, throw in Anderson for Screenplay. Linklater deserves Director for what he achieved, even if I think Birdman is slightly more impressive and a more enjoyable watch, for me.
In any case, one of Birdman, Boyhood, or Budapest winning the big one is great as a representation of 2014.
“America is explicitly defined in the dictionary as “of, relating to, or characteristic of the United States or its inhabitants” … “A native or citizen of the United States.”
*(that’s from the OXFORD BRITISH dictionary of English, just so you dom’t think I’m using a suspicious USA American dictionary.)”
Fair point Ryan Adams. I have no leg to stand on as I am not American (whichever definition you prefer). I was not telling you how “American” should be defined as it really is not my concern.
My statement was purely a response to George’s comment “And remenber my friends América is a continent not just the US”. George sounds like an “American not from the US” who was not happy with the general acceptance of the word “American” and I was merely stating that I automatically think “US” when I hear “America”. (Something I can relate to when people say “But you’re not European – you are English”). It was not my intention to cause offence to you and I apologise if I did so inadvertently.
One other theory for Boyhood’s further backlash (just a hypothesis):
Probably those sentimental childhood ads from Toyota, Dove, and Nationwide during the Super Bowl caused some voters at home saying in their minds , “Oh wait, so Boyhood was really just a longer version of those ads. So it’s not special.”
As a Canadian, and resident of North America, I can assure all readers that, out of the 35 million citizens of Canada, there is NOT ONE of us who would call ourselves American or would want to do so. We like being Canadian. And we like NOT being American. And I am pretty sure most Americans like NOT being Canadian!
Regardless of the origin of the term America, the meaning of words changes over time. Tough luck for everyone else, but “America” now means the USA, despite what the word’s origins might be. “The Americas” refers to North, Central and South America. “Pan-American” means throughout or across the Americas. But America is the US.
But that’s the thing Ryan– Birdman is not the movie of about or made in Mexico in any way shape or form. It’s a movie about America 100pct through and through. The director was born in Mexico, but if that alone makes the movie not about America then there’s a also definition problem with the way you are using the words America here.
When someone says Mexican movies does anyone think oh yeah let’s watch gravity and children of men and Birdman? I don’t think so
Is Brokeback mountain a Taiwanese movie? If that is not a movie about the American experience I don’t know what is
Two tiny bits I would like to bring up:
The United States of America is the only country with “America” in its name. So there is a somewhat natural literal association of “American” to the inhabitants of the US.
Crash was another film to center around the film industry.
@Ryan Adams
Thanks. For the records, I loved Slumdog Millionaire, but I think Dark Knight should have been nominated instead of that poor man’s Schindler’s List, The Reader. I would have liked AMPAS to see that competition unfold.
So why is it that a guy like Christopher Nolan who made the superhero film in possibly humankind (Dark Knight) can’t even get nominated, but yet a film that has CGI yet says fuck you to superheroes get the respect from AMPAS?
it could be (possibly) because a lot of people in the academy are rightfully thrilled at the sight of slick CGI effects but they never usually watch those visually gorgeous movies unless they have a veneer of more familiar pretension smeared over them.
“Birdman also manages to thumb its nose at CGI superheros, while still making a CGI-guy-leap-tall-buildings-with-a-single-bound movie. That they can accept.”
So why is it that a guy like Christopher Nolan who made the superhero film in possibly humankind (Dark Knight) can’t even get nominated, but yet a film that has CGI yet says fuck you to superheroes get the respect from AMPAS?
@ Andy,
I’m with you on your Keaton sentiments. Actually, I’m in the Anybody-but-Redmayne-except-Carell Camp.
“Birdman manages to thumb its nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.”
Birdman also manages to thumb its nose at CGI flying guys, while still making CGI guy fly. That they can accept.
“Look! Up in the air! Is it bird?! Is it a plane?!”
nope, just a guy flying around in the air and thumbing his nose at guys who fly around in the air.
What’s interesting to me about this year is that a lot of this convo would have a different tone of The Artist and Argo hadn’t won recently (thanks, those two continue to ruin everything!).
If you look back at 84 years of oscar before those two perfidious choices, they had NEVER awarded BP to a movie about Hollywood. I guess All About Eve and Hamlet were about the theater so about showbiz in that sense but nothing about the movies or Hollywood.
So if Birdman were the first on that line it would be harder to criticize them for awarding a movie about them. After all, I could argue, do we need -another- movie about WWII a to win? Another musical? Another gang/crime drama? Another sweeping epic? Those have been awarded time and time again– I actually welcome a movie like Birdman that provides a smart criticism of the state of hollywood and show business today and is deep in that sense.
I don’t agree that Birdman is “just there.” It is as deep as Boyhood in different ways. It has layers to be peeled and, on top of that, it offers an ode to the dying American movie industry by making a technical masterpiece of a movie.
It’s a bit wrong to say we are worried about awarding Inarritu because American cinema is dying. Inarritu may be of Mexican origin but he’s as much American cinema and Birdman is as much American cinema as, say, the Brad Pitt produced 12 Years a Slave was.
Inarritu may not have been born or have started his career but his contribution will not go down in history as a contribution to Mexican cinema. It’s a contribution to American cinema 100pct regardless of his nationality. Sasha is not xenophobic, but I also don’t understand the “he’s not american argument,” given that the movie is an American movie.
Anyway, it’s too bad that two great movies like Boyhood and Birdman have to go up against each other. What that one of them could have brought down the inane Artist etc. But both are worthy winners for their own reasons. Both are deep, neither is facile or provided easy answers.
Birdman is not your typical puppy in a tea cup that you can sit anyone in front of. It’s, first of all, confusing and stupid to some people.
It is, more importantly, a uniquely American movie about the state of American cinema.
I mean that’s the thing– you can’t both simultaneously complain that Birdman is the american hollywood system rewarding a portrayal of itself and then mention that Birdman is not an American movie. It’s, at the very least, about the american movie experience today, even while Boyhood is about an aspect of American life that affects more people (but there’s no requirement that movies be populist to be good- after all, movies about African Americans are about a smaller portion of the country than movies about whites, and it would be silly to use that as a criterion for anything)
I’ve just seen CAKE and I immediately thought of this:
Steve Carell – Famous actor, known mostly for his comedy roles on tv, wears a prosthetic nose, delivers a brilliant performance: Nominated in one of the most competitive years in Best Lead Actor
Jennifer Aniston: Famous actress, known mostly for her comedy roles on tv, wears ZERO make-up, delivers a brilliant performance: Snubbed in one of the weakest years in Best Lead Actress
Still trying to understand how that might be possible, even though Carell’s performance been hyped since Foxcatcher’s opening at Cannes.
“Birdman manages to thumb it’s nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.”
I second how good an observation that is, it’s what I was trying to feebly scrape at wondering how Altman would have handled the same concept. Again, I don’t think Inarritu is thumbing his nose at Hollywood, he is completely EMBRACING the adulation. He’s made no secret of wanting an Oscar for a long time. And it will pay off despite the anemic box office that supposedly was such a black mark against Boyhood I might add.
Maybe Linklater should have been campaigning on “pullllllleaaaaaze give me an Oscar”, which of course would have flown in the face of the genesis of the project.
“And remember my friends América is a continent not just the US”
Good point – we always think purely of the US when we hear “America”,
Here’s a thing about words. They can have more than one meaning. Hot can be burning fire hit. Hot can also be sexy fuckable hot.
America is explicitly defined in the dictionary as “of, relating to, or characteristic of the United States or its inhabitants” … “A native or citizen of the United States.”
*(that’s from the OXFORD BRITISH dictionary of English, just so you dom’t think I’m using a suspicious USA American dictionary.)
yes, it can also be defined as “A native or inhabitant of any of the countries of North, South, or Central America.” — but is that really what you think when you hear “American movies”?
If I ask somebody, “Are you American or Mexican,” and they answer, “well I’m both because blah blah blah Mexico is technically North American.” Then I would say, “ok, jerk, never mind. Don’t tell me where you’re from. I no longer give a shit.”
c’mon you guys, don’t make me be Dr. Dictionary today.
Seriously, get real. When somebody says to you, “American movies give me a headache.” … do you wonder, “Hey, why does this guy get a headache from Brazilian movies? Brazil is American too, continentally speaking. Stop harshing on Brazilian movies and saying the movies of Brazil give you a headache!”
or do you more sensibly think: “ah, he must mean Hollywood movies give him a headache, specifically the American Hollywood movies of USA citizen Adam Sandler.”
You can usually take it for granted when we say “American movies” we are not talking about the films of Peru, ok?
Wow, Sasha
I think you’re the most fearless Hollywood journalist out there since Nikki Finke. And that’s a good thing.
What I would give for Michael Keaton to pull out a miracle.
“I still think there’s hope for Boyhood. On the preferential ballot, a universally liked film most likely trumps a divisive one which would tip the scales to favor Boyhood. Birdman is not steamrolling its way through the awards season. SAG did not give it to Keaton. BAFTA, whose membership strongly overlaps AMPAS, pretty much ignored Birdman even in categories that were very competitive. I would not compare it to King’s Speech, Slumdog, or Argo which was gobbling up everything in sight. If anything, I think it squeaked by the guilds. It is hardly a lock.”
^Rob Y, I think this is right. There is hope. 1) Preferential ballot should do well for Boyhood. 2) Birdman is not such a juggernaut as those other movies you mentioned.
This is indeed a close call for Best Picture surprisingly — for the first time in a while. None of the past few years have left me with such a question mark, not even Argo/Lincoln or 12 Years/Gravity. Boyhood/Birdman is a closer race.
Good points on Boyhood: If they reduce it to a film about children, it won’t win, they hate those films unless their guy Redford directed it. If it’s seen as an Austin-centric film, it won’t win…think about Martin Scorsese’s career. He was for a long time seen as a NY filmmaker, not an LA/Hollywood guy. And then if it’s seen as the critic’s favorite, they never like to be told what to do (except for The Hurt Locker year because they hate James Cameron, or they’re jealous of him). I just always thought it would have a better chance than Birdman with the preferential ballot. So strange…divisive films don’t win, right? No one I know in the older Academy demographic liked Birdman. They downright hated it!
I wonder if we’ll actually see a surprise in a category everyone thinks is settled. It hasn’t happened in a few years; I feel we’re due for one. I just hope it isn’t Julianne Moore…she’s been through too much shit at the Oscars for two decades to lose now. An animation surprise would be fantastic, if they watched the films.
“Birdman manages to thumb it’s nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.”
Brilliant observation.
I keep hearing that BM is a biting satire. My question is “Of what?” I have studied satirical literature (Pope, Dryden, Swift, all the way through contemporary comics). Satire uses humor or irony to expose the stupidity or blatant illogic of others. Inarritu isn’t poking fun at Broadway. Supposedly it’s toward Hollywood. But what’s the satirical message here? Hollywood chews people up and then spits them out? Ok that’s nothing new or exciting. And where is the irony there? Riggan is trying to be an artist and yet has this albatros to deal with. That’s not very funny nor ironic. The only irony I see is in the casting of Riggan with an actor who played Batman. The result is that irony is now Keaton is the target for the satire. That’s full out crazy. But that’s about the only satire I see in this film—targeted towards its actors. That is nihilistically cruel.
“Yeesh, there are people who say with a straight face: “Gosh, We just HAD a movie about black people a year ago. Too soon for another one!!!”
Cause that would be “resist” Ryan, as Sasha is a “Xenophobe”. –please insert sarcasm there-.
I have to be straight forward and say it, I do not think “Birdman” is a good movie. Its pseudo intellectualism is just an ego masturbation for hipsters. More global? Hell no. Not everybody is an artist.
“Boyhood” is way more global, and that is why it won the BAFTA, it’s not a movie about only the typical US family, I can relate to it.
It is funny indeed, how a movie about making art as “Boyhood” is most likely to win over “Boyhood”.
I would love a split. Either way. I think this year, like last, the split is deserving and makes sense. I have also been saying for a long time that Budapest will take O Screenplay. This is the category that honors quirk and they obviously love the film. It’s the category where you honor the filmmaker that isn’t taking BP or Director (Tarrantino, Coens, Payne, Jones, etc…)
“To honor Boyhood is to dishonor they way Hollywood does everything, and they are not ready to do that, like if someone made a home movie and expected it to win. Birdman manages to thumb it’s nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.”
This is devastating to read. I was going to stick with my Boyhood prediction, but you made me doubting myself again.
Sure, the media will always list out the Brits up for awards, but the best film winning is what matters.
Luckily for UK moviegoers, and even more luckily for UK filmmakers. the BAFTAs specifically reserve two special categories that ONLY honor films and filmmakers from the UK.
That way the BAFTAs can encourage the voice of British filmmakers to thrive — by making sure British filmmakers are rewarded no matter what juggernauts from America capture the affection of BAFTA voters.
I’ll be disappointed if Birdman wins, because I didn’t like it, but it won’t be like Brokeback Mountain losing to Crash, or Sideways losing to Million Dollar Baby, or The Social Network losing to the King’s Speech, or The Tree of Life losing to The Artist, or practically anything losing to Argo. Each of those losses was a travesty.
I hated Birdman, but in a strange way I also recognize that it is a good movie, a challenging and original movie, that simply did not appeal to me for very personal and subjective reasons. A win for Birdman is in no way pandering to a bland choice (Million Dollar Baby, The King’s Speech, The Artist), or a safe choice (Argo) nor would it simply be inexplicably perverse (Crash).
What a strange choice of director to use as a comparison for Hazanavicius. Ryan, are you implying that Joss Whedon is not a director worthy of our aspiration? Based on the ideas this website is championing of late I would think he would get a little more respect. Is he not an example of an American director with a unique creative voice (albeit in genre films) and a passionate believer in female equality in the arts, especially in Hollywood??
Saying ‘Hazanavicius is not even a Joss Whedon’ gives the impression that his accomplishments aren’t particularly impressive. I would argue the opposite.
“My feeling is the real reason Hollywood will not recognize Boyhood has nothing to do with turning their backs on critics and deliberately, stubbornly choosing their own winner. Boyhood is about as Anti-Hollywood a movie you can get. It plays by none of the rules and basically succeeds on it’s own merits. I am reminded of a line Raging Bull. There sits the Guilds staring at Linktater saying” You think you can just walk in and win Best Picture on your own? You never get a shot at the title. Not with out us you don’t.” To honor Boyhood is to dishonor they way Hollywood does everything, and they are not ready to do that, like if someone made a home movie and expected it to win. Birdman manages to thumb it’s nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.”
Excactly!!! That’s what I’ve been saying all along. Boyhood is the most unconventional film in recent memory. Birdman is technically superior to Boyhood, you can’t argue with that. It’s the kind of movie they wish to make, not Boyhood.
Even if AMPAS selects Birdman as Best Picture — and by the Oscar date it may be my third choice — it is STILL a better choice than Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Crash, Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist, or Argo.
It is a really good choice, there is no denying it. If not for Boyhood I would be cheering on Birdman more. It is an edgy, weird piece for them to pick and a really good choice for the top prize. I just don’t know how you walk past Boyhood is all.
“And remember my friends América is a continent not just the US”
Good point – we always think purely of the US when we hear “America”, but as you rightly say America is a continent! (Or two if you want to divide it into north and south 🙂 )
Along the lines of the spirit of the Mark Harris piece and this one, too, can’t the case be made that much of the adoration of Boyhood is because it is a mirror to its admirers? A major reason people love Boyhood as much as they do is because they “relate” to it in some way and/or because it’s a portrait/splice of everyday, real America.
Disagree with that. I don’t admire Boyhood because it is a slice of America. I admire it because he is about a universal human experience – that’s why the BAFTAs picked it too – not because it was singularly American.
Why, then, shouldn’t we expect or RESPECT Hollywood for having a similar adoration for something that reflects their self?
Because it gets embarrassing after a while?
KT, yeah totally!
Yes it’s kind of short-term memory wishful thinking. I still can’t believe Argo won all those awards against Lincoln, Spielberg, and Kushner.
I still can’t believe Argo beat Lincoln at the Scripter.
How would we feel about Boyhood if Harvey had his hands on it and was shamelessly pimping it out like he’s been doing for The Imitation Game?
As much shit as he gets, I admire what Harvey Weinstein does, especially last year – what he did for Fruitvale Station, The Butler and August: Osage County. But the reason he’s the Oscar whisperer and the reason the Weinstein Co has the most nominations even this year (I think) is that he plays to them – he knows what they like…and that’s how he does well with them.
Isn’t this just enabling Hollywood’s alleged narcissism?
Pretty much, yeah. The site isn’t yet designed to always include everyone — there is still a specific focus on the Oscar race – what is excluded – what is included. I do my best within those parameters. But I could also start a site just dedicated to the underpresented. And probably should.
I get that you love boyhood Sasha, but why get best picture wrong for the third time out of stubbornness? Why can’t you do your Will Win/ Should Win and have Birdman/Boyhood?
Well it served me last year with 12 Years a Slave which DID win. 🙂 My Oscarwatch tracker will be the “will win” …I’ll do my best to serve that up for you guys.
Ok Now the trend is to hate Birdman? Rest easy, the academy will not give back to back oscars to latín american directors… Its virtually impossible…. And remenber my friends América is a continent not just the US
My feeling is the real reason Hollywood will not recognize Boyhood has nothing to do with turning their backs on critics and deliberately, stubbornly choosing their own winner. Boyhood is about as Anti-Hollywood a movie you can get. It plays by none of the rules and basically succeeds on it’s own merits. I am reminded of a line Raging Bull. There sits the Guilds staring at Linktater saying” You think you can just walk in and win Best Picture on your own? You never get a shot at the title. Not with out us you don’t.” To honor Boyhood is to dishonor they way Hollywood does everything, and they are not ready to do that, like if someone made a home movie and expected it to win. Birdman manages to thumb it’s nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.
Good point.
right on.
A while back I was driving back roads with the Majority Leader of the Alabama Senate, a cool guy. I asked him if the legislature might start funding AIDS because of all the infants being born HIV+. He looked at me aghast and said, “Bob! The Alabama legislature doesn’t care about children!” He was horrified I could be so stupid as to think otherwise. That is not to say that the legislators individually don’t care about kids, but they acting as a body do not. Reading your piece leads me to say…..
Sasha! The Academy doesn’t care about children!
“You should just jump off a roof and be done with it.” I wish he had at the very beginning.
My feeling is the real reason Hollywood will not recognize Boyhood has nothing to do with turning their backs on critics and deliberately, stubbornly choosing their own winner. Boyhood is about as Anti-Hollywood a movie you can get. It plays by none of the rules and basically succeeds on it’s own merits. I am reminded of a line Raging Bull. There sits the Guilds staring at Linktater saying” You think you can just walk in and win Best Picture on your own? You never get a shot at the title. Not with out us you don’t.” To honor Boyhood is to dishonor they way Hollywood does everything, and they are not ready to do that, like if someone made a home movie and expected it to win. Birdman manages to thumb it’s nose at today’s Hollywood, while still making a Hollywood movie. That they can accept.
I still think there’s hope for Boyhood. On the preferential ballot, a universally liked film most likely trumps a divisive one which would tip the scales to favor Boyhood. Birdman is not steamrolling its way through the awards season. SAG did not give it to Keaton. BAFTA, whose membership strongly overlaps AMPAS, pretty much ignored Birdman even in categories that were very competitive. I would not compare it to King’s Speech, Slumdog, or Argo which was gobbling up everything in sight. If anything, I think it squeaked by the guilds. It is hardly a lock.
Besides, should Boyhood win, I would rather congratulate you, Sasha, for predicting the winner as opposed to cave into pressure and acknowledge Wells might have been correct.
“That outrage would be entirely justified. I’m sure there are people in the UK who are outraged and who have written about that. That’s their battle to wage, not ours”.
Umm no, we aren’t actually outraged here in the UK that Boyhood beat the Theory of Everything. Sure, the media will always list out the Brits up for awards, but the best film winning is what matters.
This site constantly raises the equality issue (as seen through the wide Selma support) and the X word cannot legitimately be directed at it. However (and this is only my opinion, no offence meant to anyone), perhaps it is best to advocate for the BEST director/film, without bringing nationality into the question. Boyhood would still have been a better film than Birdman (again, only my opinion) had Linklater been British, French, Mexican, Chinese or Thai. I personally don’t believe his nationality had anything to do with the greatness of his film. I also don’t believe that the academy will snub him because he is American. The academy will snub him because they hate to be told what to do and have a wonderful history of snubbing some of the best movies ever made. I would love Boyhood to win, but I’m predicting Birdman (reluctantly).
– can’t the case be made that much of the adoration of Boyhood is because it is a mirror to its admirers?…
– Why, then, shouldn’t we expect or RESPECT Hollywood for having a similar adoration for something that reflects their self?
We can and do expect it. *sigh* You can respect if you want to. I don’t.
I think the problem you’re failing to see is probably this: 350,000,000 Americans have lives similar to the life Boyhood explores. Only 10,000 people have a life of the showbiz elite. (Anal-gazers, to use Sasha’s pithy coinage.)
So yeah, fine if Hollywood wants to keep shining a light up its own ass and then admiring the fancy stalactites in the cavern of its own rectum. But some of us would like the Oscars to reflect a somewhat broader swath of society.
I like movies about theater and Hollywood just fine. But 3 Oscar-winners about Hollywood in the past 4 years does not seem a little disproportionate to you?
Would we not be justified in saying WTF if 3 of the last 4 Best Picture winners had all been about British Royalty?
Yeesh, there are people who say with a straight face: “Gosh, We just HAD a movie about black people a year ago. Too soon for another one!!!”
What’s more interesting? Movies about Bel Air millionaires making movies about themselves? Or movies that explore the relatively unexplored lives of 80 MILLION PEOPLE in America who are not White.
Not that the people in Boyhood are not white. But here is something they are not: They are not the 1%. How many fucking movies about the tortured tribulations of the 1% can we stomach?
Your mileage may vary. But I’m not too fascinated by the troubles of a guy who might have to sell his house in Malibu to finance his ridiculous vanity project on Broadway.
Big problem, dude. How can you ever cope with such problems? You should just jump off a roof and be done with it. … And there he goes… splat.
Nice waste of life. And people say Mason in Boyhood didn’t yet amount to much.
hey, at least Mason wasn’t an asshole to all the other assholes he’s chosen to surround himself with in his insulated sphere, and at least Boyhood isn’t all about “how’s the best way for me to encourage the world of admirers to stroke my desperate ego.”
I get that you love boyhood Sasha, but why get best picture wrong for the third time out of stubbornness? Why can’t you do your Will Win/ Should Win and have Birdman/Boyhood?
Knee Play, thanks! But, no, I don’t my own blog. Not really. I have one that I use like once a year when I feel really passionate about a topic and feel like writing, but it’s almost entirely just for my own pleasure. Last year my passion was about how American Hustle may have actually been a deliberate, even somewhat intellectually, hustle for Oscars. This year my passion is about how great (and very gay) The Imitation Game is (I’m still researching and writing that piece). bloop
Harvey wouldn’t have made Boyhood unless he fired Linklater from the picture. Apart from Q, he likes his directors to be compliant and secondary.
How would we feel about Boyhood if Harvey had his hands on it and was shamelessly pimping it out like he’s been doing for The Imitation Game?
We’d all be like, “well, the end justifies the means.” If Weinstein is producing or running the Oscar campaign for a film I love (Shakespeare In Love, Tarantino’s movies, etc.), then I’m all for him getting my preferred choices into the race or, in SIL’s case, even winning it. I’ll freely admit that my feelings on Weinstein’s heavy-handed campaigns shift wildly from year to year depending on which movie he’s championing.
I too am flabbergasted that Michael Keaton may lose the Oscar. I thought the range he demonstrated in Birdman and his vulnerability make him a deserving winner. Here’s to hoping Jack Nicholson works his Oscar magic behind the scenes.
uh oh, now I have an image of a bunch of Academy members receiving a green-and-purple wrapped gift box with URGENT written on it…
Can you imagine how much better Birdman would have been if someone who legitimately had disdain for the industry, like Altman, had made it. As laid back as Linklater is, Innaritu comes off as the diametric opposite. He loves this adulation and clearly thinks that the wafer thin pedantic messages in Birdman are more profound than they really are. And again, that scarf…jeesh.
*slow clap for Sasha* Fucking brilliant.
Question for Sasha and all the Boyhood supporters.
And I ask this while acknowledging that I think Boyhood is great. It’s not my favorite movie of the year. But I admire it very much.
How would we feel about Boyhood if Harvey had his hands on it and was shamelessly pimping it out like he’s been doing for The Imitation Game?
Yes it’s kind of short-term memory wishful thinking. I still can’t believe Argo won all those awards against Lincoln, Spielberg, and Kushner. Still unbelievable. This is probably a repeat of that situation. Except hasn’t Boyhood been WAY more a frontrunner than Lincoln was, until the guilds?? Don’t we have more reason to be hopeful this time around? I think so, a bit.
Hooray for wishful thinking!! Go Boyhood!
All your article needs is the painting to solidify the comparison: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echo_and_Narcissus#mediaviewer/File:Nicolas_Poussin_040.jpg
There is no way Richard Linklater should be losing the Best Director Oscar. I can’t believe it…the passion project, the 12 year commitment, defying all odds, turning in a great film. Really, it should be as undeniable and it will be a shame if he loses. I do really and firmly believe that the unanimous critical praise, the 100 on Metacritic and 99 on RT has had a negative impact and just rubs the voters the wrong way. They NEVER ever want to be told what to vote for.
I too am flabbergasted that Michael Keaton may lose the Oscar. I thought the range he demonstrated in Birdman and his vulnerability make him a deserving winner. Here’s to hoping Jack Nicholson works his Oscar magic behind the scenes.
Similar to the above, Hollywood probably also sees itself as an international institution and not a definitively American one, which would serve as an argument against them needing to or even wanting to anoint American talent as their “homegrown” talent.
I think Sundance serves as a better representation of the state of American cinema, and given everything that happened there this year–the big buys, the great reviews, the enormous new talent, the plethora of female-focused narratives–I’d say it is very much NOT dead.
Along the lines of the spirit of the Mark Harris piece and this one, too, can’t the case be made that much of the adoration of Boyhood is because it is a mirror to its admirers? A major reason people love Boyhood as much as they do is because they “relate” to it in some way and/or because it’s a portrait/splice of everyday, real America.
Why, then, shouldn’t we expect or RESPECT Hollywood for having a similar adoration for something that reflects their self?
Even if AMPAS selects Birdman as Best Picture — and by the Oscar date it may be my third choice — it is STILL a better choice than Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Crash, Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist, or Argo.
That’s reason to celebrate.
OMG! The picture of Michael Keaton at the top of this article, and I’m sure no one realized it, is him looking at MY BUILDING!?! One of the few places left in NYC for subsidized housing for artists. I nearly fainted. Talk about self-reflecting pools. That’s really scary.
Also, I should’ve liked this picture more. But I didn’t. I don’t think it’s going to do that well on Oscar night. BAFTA, in a confused, close race always sets the pace. Bet on the Brits. And yes, I’m with Sasha on sticking with “Boyhood”. I just predicted it on my bulidling’s Oscar pool
Those who win get – FREE TICKETS TO MORE MOVIES! Everything a film critic would want, right?
‘Boyhood’ is suffering from the ‘If I’d taken the time to do it, I could’ve done it too’ mentality of most voters, and, honestly, they’re right. Giving Boyhood an Oscar is like giving a longtime employee a gold watch. Many feel that the movie is not a masterpiece, but a solid effort. I feel that each 12-minute movie at best adequate and at worst (and often) expository and cliched.
Birdman wasn’t great, but it was different and definitely something few directors could achieve. So it edges Boyhood in a two-movie race.
Imitation Game is dreck. It is a movie of such dishonest art that it borders on cynical craftsmanship. Dully directed, self-aware “I’m acting!” acting, a brutal ‘art for rubes’ script, and a conscious avoidance of being about anything thematically or in terms of Turing’s story, it is a wasteland.
Whiplash was the year’s best movie. Perfection.
Selma was a weak, poorly-directed and ineptly written (though finely-acted) TV movie about one of the all-time greatest Americans. He deserves better, and hopefully his estate will finally let free the speeches that helped change America.
Grand Budapest Hotel was twee garbage. Its inclusion proves how truly weak this year was.
American Sniper was solid, enjoyable, excellent fare which was NOT pro-war. If anything, it was “pro troops/anti Iraq War”, a fine compromise of the modern post-Bush (“Bush? We always hated him!”) right wing. Cooper was fantastic, as was Miller.
Theory of Everything was juuuuuuuuuuust fine. Proof that Redmayne will probably win the Oscar. (Almost like Blind Side getting riding Sandra’s coattails.)
Where’s the uproar about the BAFTAs almost never giving their main awards to British filmmakers? That I would actually understand.
That outrage would be entirely justified. I’m sure there are people in the UK who are outraged and who have written about that. That’s their battle to wage, not ours.
Just to be clear, it doesn’t bother me at all that the Cesar Awards and the Donetello Awards and myriad other national film awards don’t nominate American movies.
In fact, I have always respected the way France in particular began taking measures to officially LEGISLATE protection of the French Film Industry to prevent being colonized by Hollywood. As far back as the 1980s, with the advent of American Blockbusters, France took direct and effective action to STOP Hollywood from engulfing French theaters.
And that’s one of many reasons why French films have preserved and maintained their national integrity and can stand so proudly as a distinct, unique, culturally relevant representation of France’s ongoing status as a beacon in world cinema — with a universally recognizable voice, with thousands of films that serve as ambassadors from France.
What a great article, Sasha! So true.
Like you, I’m rooting for Boyhood/Linklater over the amazing Birdman/Innaritu, but I don’t believe it will happen.
Your Oscar predictions are all very logical, but…
Do you really think Selma will win for Best Song? I admit that it looks like a no-brainer on paper, and it WAS an effective song in the movie. But I gotta think this one’s going to go to Glen Campbell, who has quite the narrative going into the race.
I will concede though, that the box office for the Campbell documentary has been negligible.
If I have to choose between the industry and the critics I’ll choose the industry. Now and forever. Making movies is more important than writing about them.
And by the way Birdman is much more universal than Boyhood.
“It isn’t even that. It is trying to remind people of the great work being done here that is being ignored.”
Ignored? BOYHOOD has won a million awards! Even if doesn’t win all the Oscars, I don’t think it’s being “ignored”.
Where’s the uproar about the BAFTAs almost never giving their main awards to British filmmakers? That I would actually understand.
[Side note/Off-topic]
#THE TALE OF PRINCESS KAGUYA:
I have a feeling Princess Kaguya has got a higher chance to win #ANIMATED FEATURE than expected.
Despite a day or two remaining, I encourage the voters whom somehow have not seen it yet or have experienced it in the dubbed version, to watch it anew in sub (if possible) (so that for instance certain delicate emotions are not neutered, etc.) prior to casting your votes.
The film employs the picture scroll-like hand-drawn animation style [on top of it, this one represents as well a work of art that takes years to finish; a da Vinci to me (as opposed to resembling 4th-grader’s drawing to some plebeians on the Internet)], itself signifying a beautiful and heartfelt ancient folktale of Japan with mixed emotions and feelings, as well as humanity, throughout.
Give it a chance, voters.
I know you’re a smart and sensitive guy, Kevin. I’ve always liked you, always enjoyed reading your contributions here. I know you’re not an “idiot” — it’s crazy to say that. It’s also not right to say Sasha is a xenophobe.
Idiot, Xenophobe, see what I did there? It doesn’t feel very good to be unfairly labeled with terms that we don’t deserve.
Quite right, Sasha is. Hollywood really does have an oversized case of narcissism. Films about theatre and film tend to grab voters’ attention a lot more than any other subject matter. And why not? It’s human nature to be drawn to the subjects that we, as individuals, can most closely identify with. The masses who are most separate from Hollywood raised Hell about the snubbing of ‘Selma’, is director, writer, and cast. Much to Sasha’s credit about Harvey Weinstein’s approach to Oscar campaigning, even the Average Joe who goes to the movies wishes his or her favorite film of the year would get a nomination, or even a win, for Best Picture and otherwise. If this were to actually happen, of course, we would indeed see more “B-level” films nabbing awards and not the ones that take exceptional skill and insight to make a timeless work of art. Why is this? Because the majority of viewers know almost nothing about HOW movies are made, and therefore, cannot really tell what to look for in the screening process. The movies that are critically trashed the most tend to be audience favorites, in general. But there is always at least one film every year where the two opposing views intersect. Usually, though, these rare films tend to show up in the tech categories at most. Probably the last time all three worlds agreed on which film was best was back in 2004 when ‘The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King’ tied both ‘Ben-Hur’ and ‘Titanic’ with its 11 wins, including Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. There really doesn’t seem to be any one or two ways about any category this year. This makes for probably the most unpredictable Oscar ceremony we’ll have seen in recent years. I even have my doubts about Best Actor – despite the obvious momentum for Eddie Redmayne. If Hollywood truly is suffering from such a huge case of narcissism, they would probably show that by voting for Michael Keaton over Eddie Redmayne. But don’t hold your breath. I honestly think both actors deserve this one – and who knows: We might end up with what happened between ‘Skyfall’ and ‘Zero Dark Thirty’ for Best Sound Editing…a TIE! Has there ever been a Best Actor tie? But what about a tie for BEST PICTURE??? Hmmm…so much to look forward to.
And what should we call it then? Is “excessive patriotism” okay?
It isn’t even that. It is trying to remind people of the great work being done here that is being ignored.
But hasn’t this site been calling everyone racist and sexist for the last few months?
No. Call a racist a racist. That’s fine. Call a sexist a sexist. No problem.
There ARE racists and there ARE sexists. There are a lot of them, everywhere.
But nope, this site has not “been calling everyone racist and sexist for the last few months” — just the racists and the sexists.
There ARE xenophobes in America, probably millions of them. Sasha is not one of them.
I am a foreigner, and I did not take the comment as xenophobia
Thank you. Jeez. Here I am known as the one blogger on the awards that gives a damn about diversity and yet this accusation…the mind reels.
“But hasn’t this site been calling everyone racist and sexist for the last few months?” <— actually that's a point too.
maybe he used the wrong term (xenophobia), but, actually, he made a right point: why separate things in a nationality? who cares if a director is american or european?
Uh because our film industry is dying maybe?
c’mon, people. let’s stop the hate with Kevin.
maybe he used the wrong term (xenophobia), but, actually, he made a right point: why separate things in a nationality? who cares if a director is american or european? we’re talking about movies and their quality. and, by the way, BIRDMAN is the best movie of 2014. it is much about Keaton, but is about Stone, Norton, Watts, Galifianakis, Sánchez, Lubezki, the writers, and, specially, about Iñarritu, which is a great director with a great filmography. BIRDMAN deserves it and gonna get it, period (excuse my english, I’m brazilian)
I am a foreigner, and I did not take the comment as xenophobia. I do understand the Point Sasha is making, when you have an award in your country, that for the last years has been given to someone from another country, it makes you think on the things you are doing wrong (as a country). Yes, I also believe that the award should go to the best one, and if the best one is from another country, well good for him/her, but still. The Goya awards from Spain usually don’t give out awards to foreigners and they are not called xenophobes, actually is the other way around, they are always seen as patriots that support their own artists.
But anyway, going back to the topic, “Boyhood” should win, that’s it. =)
OK, so I apologize, Sasha, for using the word xenophobia.
But hasn’t this site been calling everyone racist and sexist for the last few months?
And what should we call it then? Is “excessive patriotism” okay?
In my opinion, the Oscars aren’t the Olympics, it isn’t about rooting for “your” guy.
If a Mexican is the Best Director of the year two years in a row, so be it. Cuaron and Inarritu deserve all the awards they got. And for my (Canadian) money, it would be awesome if the other of the Three Amigos, Guillermo del Toro, won Best Director next year!
People need to stop throwing around “Xenophobia” so casually — it’s tantamount to screaming “RACIST!” or “AGEIST” or “SEXIST” or “BIGOT!” at the drop of a hat and it ounds just as ugly.
Grow up and settle down.
It’s possible to want to support the art and artists of your country and still admire and invite and welcome international art and artists. It’s possible to LOVE Ang Lee and Billy Wilder and still feel a pang of regret and a funk of disappoint when brilliant American directors are passed over for the past 5th year in a row.
Directors like Ricard Linklater, David Fincher, and Paul Thomas Anderson are National Treasure, turning out film after film that have become classics of American cinema. Michel Hazanavicius, thus far, is a one-trick pony. And it wasn’t even a very interesting trick. It was facile derivative fluff.
Do we see the Cesar Awards and the Donatello Awards EVER nominating Americans for ANYTHING? No we do not. Are they therefore Xenophobes? No, They Are Not.
NewsFlash. Michel fucking Hazanavicius is no Billy Wilder. Hazanavicius is not even on par with Joss Whedon,
Sasha broke down and cried when Ang Lee gave her a hug. That’s not the reaction of a zenophobe.
xenophobia is “the intense or irrational dislike or fear of people from other countries.” Only an idiot would think that term is a fair description of Sasha,
Find another word. I’m done tolerating this crude stupid accusation of xenophobia. Anybody who lobs that nasty grenade without good reason will find their comment deleted from this day forward.
Kevin, you actually owe Sasha an apology. When you do that, I’ll take back what I said about you being an idiot.
Sasha’s stubbornness is what keeps me coming back to this site. I really hope “Boyhood” wins, and just as Sasha, I will keep it as my prediction. I refuse to switch to “Bridmam”.
“How great would it be for the American film industry to step up and also recognize the works by their best homegrown artists, like Richard Linklater.”
I know you love Linklater, I do too, but enough with the xenophobia! Since when are the Oscars supposed to be all about “homegrown”, all-American, Born in the USA artists?
Hollywood is and has always been filled with filmmakers from all around the world. In 1945 and 1960, would you have been all like, “Fuck Billy Wilder, the Oscar should go to one of our homegrown artists”?
Er, previous post was by me, not Q — as awesome as it would be if John de Lancie was a poster here.
At the end of the day, Birdman is still a great movie, so if it indeed ekes out Boyhood, I’ll be satisfied with the 2014 Oscar season. The ever-shifting Academy ballot is kind of fitting since it mirrors how everyone has their personal threshold of how many “Great” movies there are in a given year. Some years there are five movies that pass my personal bar of “if this won Best Picture, I wouldn’t be upset.” Other years there are eight, nine, ten or even more. This year’s nominees were problematic for me since only two of them (Birdman and Boyhood) passed that bar, but since one or the other is almost assuredly going to win Best Picture, I’m satisfied.
Argo didn’t quite meet that level for me — I think I had it at #11th or #12th for me in 2012 — though even Sasha herself considered it the third-best movie of 2012 even if she ardently preferred others in the race. If my third-favourite movie won Best Picture every year, I’d be going a happy dance! It seems like “The Artist” is experiencing a bit of backlash right now, which isn’t surprising since it’s such an unusual movie, yet I feel like in 5-10 years, people are going to go back to it and applaud the Academy for recognizing such a unique piece of work as the Best Picture of its year.
In a year about all of the problems of men, where every single dusty corner of the white male experience is explored, where women and people of color are mostly forgotten, it sort of adds insult to injury that the big life problem the industry has decided to mourn is the death of traditional Hollywood in the face of Superhero movies. Here is Ava DuVernay making history come alive with Selma, giving voice to the voiceless, opening doors, inspiring young women to make movies, inspiring black artists to be heard. There was Gillian Flynn adapting her own novel into a screenplay, one of the few R-rated movies to hit $168 million. There is Wes Anderson making the best film of his career with the Grand Budapest Hotel and there is Boyhood, the masterpiece by one of America’s most humble and experimental storytellers, making the lament of time and age and personal evolution come alive in two hours of film. Yet here is Hollywood, gazing upon itself yet again. “Poor us. Poor sad us.”
I love this paragraph. Yet, in a way, Birdman’s lament somewhat ties into all of these films and the “story” of 2014 —- all of these vibrant original films (except Gone Girl) didn’t make much money at the box office and were buried under mountains of hype about the latest superhero blockbusters. The fact that Riggan Thompson could just as easily be seen as “a washed-up nutter” than he can a “tortured artist” is also perhaps Hollywood’s way of poking fun at itself and admitting that the industry’s problems don’t amount to the proverbial hill of beans.
How alive and funny and vibrant Birdman is. How well connected Chivo’s camera is to Michael Keaton’s changing face. Keaton is the best thing about the film and yet he won’t be winning any awards. Birdman IS Michael Keaton. It is his actor’s showcase. How bizarre that the film would be winning yet not its anchor.
I don’t get how that happened. But since it seems to be the way this ship is sailing, there really won’t be anything for me to be happy about during the Oscar ceremony. I really don’t care about any of the other awards this year.