Imitation Game, Grand Budapest Hotel, Olive Kitteridge win WGA Awards

“That being said, I think we should move our discussion to the latest State of the Race post Sasha just loaded!”

I’m actually going to have to get some sleep now. 😀 I won’t even read the new articles yet, I’m too tired. I’ll wait until tomorrow… But even then I’ll try to limit my input as much as possible – I can’t take these long arguments against the Akumaxes and Zooeys of the world anymore… I’m wasting too much time again!

Oh, I don’t mind my username being mangled to much.

“Call me crazy, but I believe in the Oscars rule of twenty (repeats every 20 years):

1990/2010: BP winners Hurt Locker and Driving Miss Daisy BOTH earn 9 nominations
1992/2012: BP winners Artist and Silence of the Lambs BOTH win 5 Oscars. And both are unusual choices (one is horror, other is silent black and white)
1994/2014: BP Winners 12 Years a Slave and Schindler’s List are BOTH about horrible acts of oppression

There, I could go on more if you like….”

You mean 6 like Forrest Gump? 🙂 Could be… Can’t be the same 6, though – no editing of vfx noms.

“@Birdiene”

I think it’s supposed to be Birdie Nest. 🙂

@Daveinprogress

Don’t worry, I’m getting cross-eyed typing my predictions (although waiting until Friday to do final). LOL.

I am putting off making those final predix – mainly because i haven’t really got a clue about the two main awards! I think it will be a pretty good spread between Budapest, Boyhood and Birdman; with Whiplash, Theory, Imitation, Whiplash and Sniper all emerging Oscar winners. All 8 best picture finalists will bring home some gold. Sniper probably just one of the sound awards; Whiplash – two; maybe.(Supp Actor and the other Sound category); Imitation just one for screenplay; Theory – 2 – Actor and Score. For the big 3 it gets tougher to be brave and make some declarations. There’s still 6 days!……

“What I meant to say is, my heart wants Birdman to win six, but my head says it will win four.”

🙂 Yeah, four sounds about right to me too. I don’t even necessarily think it should win more, even though it’s the best of the year overall, for me. Again, four sounds just about right… not the exact 4 it’s most likely to get, though, necessarily. 🙂 But definitely picture and screenplay among them.

“I don’t want an answer”

Then why ask the question?

And Whiplash 3. 🙂 You probably counted editing for Boyhood instead of Whiplash.
Personally, I think Redmayne probably will win it (though I’m far from confident about it), and Theory might win score as well, but, other than that, not much I disagree with. Would be awesome if Whiplash got BOTH screenplay AND editing, but maybe that’s a bit too optimistic a scenario. 🙂

@Claudiu

Post-WGA picks (not final though)

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette. Boyhood
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
Best Art Direction: Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Film Editing: Whiplash
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song: ‘Glory’ from Selma
Best Makeup: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Doumentary Feature: Citizenfour
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida

6 Awards: Birdman
3 Birdman: TGBH
2: Boyhood, Whiplash

Dave – I’m aware I might SOUND dogmatic sometimes (I assure you I’m not – I value the stats greatly, but I know they WILL fail sometimes, however rarely, and I KNOW there are other factors, possibly even those that don’t sip out into the precursor results), but you have to realize I only reply that way to people who have THEMSELVES made a dogmatic (or obviously incorrect, and not in a subjective, debatable way) remark, especially if it’s one I disagree with, of course (otherwise I’d have to reply to half the posts in every thread, and that wouldn’t be very practical). I feel Zooey made such remarks.

“After the way you sounded, it’s hard for me to take your word for you.”

So it wasn’t just me who thought his tone sounded very suspicious… But, again, it could be the language barrier – I’ll give him that.

“It was a friendly suggestion! a joke, a pun!!!!
Something that can apply to anyone myself included… in my twisted world it was like saying a mouthful.”

Your thinking is too weird for me… I’ll accept your explanation, without conceding that I actually believe it. I was aware this was the alternative explanation, but I simply didn’t think it sounded “friendly” at all, especially since I’ve never heard anyone make such a suggestion to anyone else before. But it’s OK. No need to go any further with this, like you say. We’re clearly not understanding and/or entertaining each other too much…

“it’s you who said to me f… yourself”

I felt you insulted me, and I replied in turn. If you can PROVE I was wrong to think that, I WILL apologize. So far, like I said, I’m not entirely convinced.

Claudiu, i feel everybody wants their voice heard and their contributions clocked by others, but there is a fine line between a robust discourse and a fractious encounter. I respect how much you explore and equip yourself with history, facts and considered assertions. Not everyone, myself included approaches this process this way, and as much as you say you don’t impose your view, it can come across as dogmatic, not really allowing that space, that possibility for another point of view. No-one likes their comments being overly scrutinised and regurgitated and I can sense how upset you are/have been with this thread in particular and where you perhaps are being taken to task over an assertion. Be proud of your diligence and committment, but also allow others to have their moments; their positions. 🙂

It was a friendly suggestion! a joke, a pun!!!!
Something that can apply to anyone myself included… in my twisted world it was like saying a mouthful.
I explain:
When someone calls you a jerk (maybe you are projecting some negativity that makes that someone calling you that)
So, maybe it’s time to jerk off (to release the stress and do something more pleasing than argue or feeling offended)

Really Claudiu, I don’t know why you feel so insulted by me when it’s you who said to me f… yourself and I didn’t even reply.
Please go your why I go mine. I feel it’s just Claudiu vs. Claudiu so no way out.
I will ignore you I promise. Have a nice night.

“I like how Sasha is very bold in her opinions to the point of calling out bullshit from cowardly AMPAS members (who refused to watch certain nominees), but at the same time she is respectful in almost everyone’s opinion. I may not agree everything she says, but at least she does her homework before saying something.”

Exactly!

@Claudiu

I like how Sasha is very bold in her opinions to the point of calling out bullshit from cowardly AMPAS members (who refused to watch certain nominees), but at the same time she is respectful in almost everyone’s opinion. I may not agree everything she says, but at least she does her homework before saying something.

Ryan taught me :). Bold is (just remove the ” and spaces, I can’t explain otherwise): “” at the beginning, and at the end ““. Same for italics, but with “i” instead of “b”. Smileys are just the symbols (I don’t know as many as other people, I’m sure): “:” and “)”, side by side, for smiley face, “:” and “(“, also side by side, for sad face, “:” and “o” for shock, “:” and “D” for grin, “;” and “)” for wink, I think… and there might be others that aren’t coming to mind right away…

“I’m sure Sasha and Ryan, as passionate as they like Boyhood, are NOT gonna be ignorant fools and say
“fuck these stats.” They root the films they advocate with their heart, but are at least aware how things work.”

Exactly! This is what drew me to AD in the first place – Sasha’s thoroughness with the stats. She knows them, and knows they matter. Of course she doesn’t think they’re everything – no pundit does (I do, because I believe all of the trends, voter likes, tendencies, end up showing in the precursor results somehow – but I’m not trying to impose this view on anybody, though I will defend it when it’s attacked). But she definitely doesn’t ignore them.

That was just what drew me in, of course. 🙂 I discovered many other great things about AD after that…

@Claudiu

No problem. Just trying to help out the best I can. I’m sure Sasha and Ryan, as passionate as they like Boyhood, are NOT gonna be ignorant fools and say
“fuck these stats.” They root the films they advocate with their heart, but are at least aware how things work.

“stats are busted virtually every year.”

Common misconception. Strong stats are almost never broken. Sure, stats with 70-80% records are going to be broken reasonably often, but 90+% stats, like the strongest ones for BP, will hardly ever be broken.

“NONE of the stats ANYONE mentioned here are particularly strong anyways”

I agree with that. But, feeble as they are, they favor Birdman (albeit slightly), and no stronger stats exist that favor Budapest (in this category).

“There’s no real precedent for the specific circumstances of this race to begin with anyways.”

I know. I’ve pretty much proved it. But Zooey was trying to make it look like there was such a precedent, without actually naming any that weren’t completely different in one key way or another…

“It’s true one way or another that a stat has to be broken once in a while.”

Birdienest knows how things are, as always. 🙂 Thanks for showing up, man – I’ve got such a headache (I’m not exaggerating, I’ve had to take some Nurofen) from having to fight straw man arguments and people who refuse to accept simple facts all night… It helps a lot to have a voice of reason alongside me at last!

“I apologize if you had to put up with such ignorant trolls such as Akumax and Zooey all alone> I had to be at a party.”

No need to apologize, of course! 🙂 I shouldn’t be taking these things to heart so much anyway… I can’t believe I’ve allowed myself to get so upset over a category I barely care about at all, screenplay!… It’s ridiculous!

But, seriously, Akumax was being completely insufferable – at least Zooey is mostly straightforward in his arguments and insults. But Akumax was trying to insult me subtly, like I was born yesterday, and that’s just so ugly! I guess you have to have some rotten apples in even the best of barrels – “troll” is too nice a word in his case, I’m afraid…

I mean the comment was directed toward Chris Price. Ay me.

“He was, however, making Budapest out to be some kind of big favorite, which it’s just not.”

Neither are big favorites in this category, really.

“That’s your opinion. You have no proof that they will, you’re just making an assumption. One can easily make the reverse assumption and back it up with equally convincing “arguments”.”

We’re all making assumptions here, no? No one has any “proof” of anything, and stats are busted virtually every year. NONE of the stats ANYONE mentioned here are particularly strong anyways, so in such a close race, it’s always only going to be blind speculation. There’s no real precedent for the specific circumstances of this race to begin with anyways.

And there I was, worried I might actually be WRONG about your tone… silly me…

Claudio, dear, you seem a little stressed out. Can I give you a friendly advice?!
Here it is: When someone calls you a jerk maybe it’s time to jerk off – ©Akumax all rights reserved

“The real point is: claudio, why so serious?”

See, there – you’re doing it again… in my opinion…

“Let me just say for the record, the odds sites are actually split at this point. Some of them give Birdman the edge, some of them give Budapest the edge.”

That’s an optimistic way of looking at it… Taking all of the odds from here: http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-original-screenplay
Birdman is the favorite at 13/16 sites. Hardly split. A pretty big favorite at some of them, actually, close to 1.5. Also, Birdman’s average odds are 1.71, Budapest’s 2.09. Birdman is ahead pretty clearly, overall.

“If we’re talking BFCA vs BAFTA, 3/5 versus 4/5 is pretty fucking close in terms of history, but also an extremely small sample size to confidently use as a barometer.”

I was arguing AGAINST his opinion that the BAFTA win, which is the only win it has over Birdman, is somehow stronger than the BFCA+GG combo, which it’s not, since it’s not even stronger than the BFCA alone.

“My point is these two are close and this is the closest they will get this season.”

I don’t have a problem with that. He was, however, making Budapest out to be some kind of big favorite, which it’s just not.

“I’d lean towards Budapest only because I think the major awards are going to split”

That’s your opinion. You have no proof that they will, you’re just making an assumption. One can easily make the reverse assumption and back it up with equally convincing “arguments”.

“The real point is: is it more or less or equally insulting?”

Yes, that WAS the real point. And it’s NOT less insulting. What you like best has got no bearing on it whatsoever, ESPECIALLY since you’re the president of the Zooey fan club.

“it adds a flavour of kindness to the insult.”

So, in addition to being insulting, it’s also hypocritical. Yeah, that’s much better…
You should also note I’m not a fan of your condescending, holier-than-thou tone either (which permeates the written word, in your case, because you make little effort to hide it), so you should probably cut it out if you want me to take you seriously.

Let me just say for the record, the odds sites are actually split at this point. Some of them give Birdman the edge, some of them give Budapest the edge. That is because it’s a waaaaayyyyyy closer, less clear cut race than the factions in this argument are letting on. If we’re talking BFCA vs BAFTA, 3/5 versus 4/5 is pretty fucking close in terms of history, but also an extremely small sample size to confidently use as a barometer. Also, the BFCA doesn’t have AMPAS members, and BAFTA does. But let’s just call the “more accurate” BFCA argument and the “Academy members in the BAFTA” argument a wash. No? I don’t think either are particularly strong arguments to make. Yes, the Globes gave Birdman Screenplay, but the film also lost Picture to Budapest. My point is these two are close and this is the closest they will get this season. I honestly don’t know who is going to win in this category, but I’d lean towards Budapest only because I think the major awards are going to split given the love for the 3 main films in competition, and Screenplay is Budapest’s best (and really only) shot at a big prize. I can see a Birdman BP, Linklater Director and Budapest Screenplay situation easily. Or you can mix and match how you like. Could be Boyhood BP, Birdman Director and Budapest Screenplay.

I suggest you try to go to some muscular dude, 5 inches taller than you, who has a reputation for being a tough guy, and telling him that, in your opinion, he’s a stupid asshole! And let me know how that works out. I’m curious if he says: “Oh, well, I understand, sir – I mean, if that’s your opinion… I respect it. And thank you for your honesty!…” And does NOT beat you senseless.

“it’s different to call someone a jerk and to at least acknowledge the subjectivity of that statement and the doubt of personal perception by adding a simple “in my opinion”.”

IT IS NOT DIFFERENT – OMG, who am I dealing with here??? If I say “in my opinion, your mother is a whore”, does that make it even a tiny bit less insulting because I said “in my opinion”? Are you serious? Do we even live on the same planet?…

Yeah, I thought so…

Even though I very much DO NOT CARE what is the favorite for screenplay, because I know Birdman doesn’t need to win even a single other Oscar to justify its winning BP under the preferential (although it will win, if it comes to that, and plenty). But you’ve MADE ME care. So, like I said, it’s very much on right now!…

Come on – make me do EVEN MORE research, so that I can poke EVEN MORE holes in your arguments!

See, I WANT an answer this time, unlike other times, when I just don’t care anymore. Now that you’ve made me do the research thoroughly and I KNOW I’m right, I WANT YOU to answer with some more nonsense, so that I can prove to people further what a phony know-it-all you are!…

Let’s go, baby! Disproving false stats! I love it! I’ma be here all night if I have to… I won’t give you an inch!

Birdman has lost ONE screenplay award to Budapest, folks! The one with the WORST RECORD. Stop pretending that’s a big deal!…

“NONE of those 5 WGA+BAFTA winners were up against a BFCA AND Golden Globe (original) screenplay winner, which Birdman is.”

Please tell me you’re not gonna misunderstand this line!… 🙁 The original applies only to the BFCA, which is why it’s in brackets. Don’t give me some bull about the Globe not having original/adapted categories, which I’m well aware of. You would do that, I know you… Please, just pay attention when you read, before replying, OK?! I don’t want to have to write this again.

Zooey,
thanks for the interesting recap and analysis.

Claudiu,
People have opinions and I already said in the past I’m not the least interested in watching the awards season only through the tiny statistical hole.
So, is it possible not to always respond to an opinion saying “it’s not a stat” to undermine it?

I was counting the sum of 3 elements, not just WGA eligibility, so your comparison with 12 years and King doesn’t make sense, both films had great emotional endings and where written by one writer.
So, to better explain what I meant: when one direct opponent in your category wins both Bafta and WGA while you are not eligible for the second, and lost the first, you are not in a great position to win the Oscar. Add the fact the your ending is WEAK and that a number of voters can have the feeling of not knowing who to blame and who to recognise truly, because the credits are share by a bunch of writers, and there you have the perfect portrait for a screenplay loosing at the Oscars.

I’ll try and explain my take as precisely as possible.
Claudio speaks of the Globe + Critics’ Choice as a very strong combination and he excludes the WGA out of the statements simply because Birdman isn’t eligible for the WGA, but I think it’s unfair and this is looking at half the facts and therefore my criticism.
Let’s take a look at all Globe + Critics’ Choice winners.
The Critics’ Choice is presented since 1995. 16 winners have gone on to win the Oscar.
But how many did win the Globe as well?
Sense and Sensibility
Traffic
Sideways
Slumdog Millionaire
Up in the Air
The Social Network
Midnight In Paris
Django Unchained
Her
Birdman – still undecided

How many of them won the WGA Award as well? 8 of these 10 won the WGA Award as well! The two that did not — Django Unchained and Birdman, both ineligible. So we have only ONE case of a film that won the Globe + BFCA, wasn’t eligible for the WGA Award and went on to win the Oscar. In the past, we had BFCA winners that weren’t eligible for the WGA Award. Inglourious Basterds, 12 Years A Slave and The King’s Speech. They didn’t win the Globe, of course. Inglourious Basterds won the Critics’ Choice against The Hurt Locker and then lost the BAFTA. And I believe it was still the odds-on favorite to win. It didn’t. Of the films not eligible for the WGA Award, only Django Unchained, The King’s Speech and 12 Years A Slave did win. And of these three, only 12 Years A Slave didn’t have the BAFTA. Both Django and The King’s Speech had the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and Critics’ Choice.
So, Globe + BFCA could be a strong combination, but it has never ever been a winning combination without WGA or BAFTA. You can go back to 1995 and you won’t find a single Globe + BFCA winner that didn’t have WGA (most of the time) or BAFTA (when the film isn’t eligible for the WGA). Who knows, Birdman could be a first. But stats are stats and I don’t know how I am twisting the facts, of which you accuse me. Once again, you want to exclude the WGA only because Birdman is not eligible but there is no logic in doing that because no matter if a certain film is excluded, other films aren’t and the WGA is a solid barometer for the outcome in the writing categories, even with major contenders and even front-runners not eligible – Inglourious Basterds is a good example.

On the other hand, The Grand Budapest Hotel has a very strong combination of wins. It has WGA + BAFTA. Surprisingly, it’s a pretty rare combination. Since 2000 (the BAFTA shift), BAFTA and WGA had agreed on Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Crash, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, The Hurt Locker and now The Grand Budapest Hotel. In adapted, they agreed on Traffic, Sideways, Brokeback Mountain, Slumdog Millionaire and The Social Network. Out of these 10 (excluding this year’s nominee), ONLY ONE failed to win the Oscar and this one had Globe + Critics’ Choice as well. It was a case of stats don’t matter, precursors don’t matter.

And this is why our conflict started in the first place. Because you stated that you’re analyzing the race based on stats and that anything else is unthinkable and unreasonable. And people who do it lack logic. I don’t do that. I follow my guts and even though I don’t get everything right, there is stuff I get right.. The thing is that every season is different. In 2009, it was clear (at least to me, or maybe it was my intuition) that The Hurt Locker was getting too big to be ignored in original screenplay and Inglourious Basterds only lost momentum by not being eligible for the WGA Award. In 2012, the case was completely different. They wanted to honor Tarantino and the WGA issue didn’t matter. The winner didn’t matter and didn’t change anything. And yes, it’s a hunch. But following stats doesn’t make you a superior predictor. Because stats matter and they don’t.
Today we speak of the Braveheart precedent but did people in 1995 consider Apollo 13 a true favorite due to sweeping the guilds? Maybe they did, I don’t know. The thing is that there is no Braveheart, there is no Shakespeare In Love and there is no Crash, Juliette Binoche or Marcia Gay Harden before they happen. And if they’re going to happen again, depends on way too many factors and pretending you can foresee that based on simplistic algorithms is kind of absurd. You can foresee easy races but when it’s really close, I give up on stats. I moved away from the screenplay categories, but whatever…

I said that my prediction is that Budapest has the edge, not that it’s Budapest’s to lose. This year is too unpredictable to call anything a favorite to win.

Golden Globes are not a valuable indicator as far as Best Screenplay goes, they don’t even have separation between original and adapted.
Bafta and WGA are great indicators and WGA counts even when a screenplay is nominate for Oscar but is not eligible for the Guild.
As an observer I say the the Academy tends to favour a writer’s solo work or sometimes a work from a duo a lot more than the work from a group of writers. Only recent exception was in fact an exception: Charlie Kaufman was recognised for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Minds with Gondry and Bismuth but it really felt like his Oscar.
Birdman has 3 big handicaps: it is written by a “huge” group of writers for academy standards, was not eligible for WGA and Birdman has its most evident weakness in the ending scene. it’s an ending that doesn’t ruin the movie completely but as far as best screenplay goes it’s a very clear and huge flaw.

“The fact that Birdman isn’t eligible doesn’t erase the WGA and its power.”

It diminishes GREATLY Budapest’s win. It’s like when Ang Lee won BD in Affleck’s absence – everybody knew Affleck would have won it, had he been nominated.

“And it matters if The Grand Budapest Hotel actually takes the WGA or not, even with Birdman not a nominee there.”

Yes, but, like I said, it matters ONLY in its being confirmed as Birdman’s biggest threat. Not in its gaining any kind of advantage over Birdman. Saying that just makes no sense. 🙂

“Once again, it won’t be the first time that a film that was the favorite before the WGA, BAFTA and wasn’t eligible for the WGA actually lost the Oscar.”

So? What does that prove? Were those movies BP favorites? Had they won Globe+BFCA for screenplay?

“Then again, you can’t know if voters have posted their ballots or not, can you?”

I understand most of them vote early. Do YOU know that they don’t. Even just statistically, in the absence of other evidence, with 10 days (or whatever the exact number is) for voting at their disposal, you have to assume A LOT more people vote in the first 8 days than in the last 2. Why would they wait, anyway? They got the ballots then; you think they put them on the shelf, saying “Oh, no, I haven’t seen this or that – I’ll go watch all of them now, quickly, and ONLY THEN vote?” 🙂 You have a higher opinion of them than I do…

“And bookies prove what?!”

That you don’t know what you’re talking about.

“I’m sorry but you have the guts to talk about logic?! You can do better than that.”

You can be a brat all you want, but unless you substantiate it, you just sound like a 9-year-old.

“In a close race as in Original Screenplay, the last voters may have the sway. The way I see it, there’s no clear frontrunner there, especially in a year like this.”

You LITERALLY just said Budapest was the favorite, Roberto! 🙂 I guess even you don’t really believe it…

In a close race as in Original Screenplay, the last voters may have the sway. The way I see it, there’s no clear frontrunner there, especially in a year like this.

Scott, I love Birdman and even I don’t know how voting for Birdman as Best Picture doesn’t translate into voting for Keaton. He brings the movie.

“If you love Birdman, and think it should win BP and BD, how can you also not vote for it for Actor??????”

Because, while Keaton is essential and very good in it, he’s still not better than Redmayne in The Theory of Everything. As simple as that. Please don’t challenge this, it’s just my opinion, which is what you asked for – an explanation of “how”!

I did not like Birdman, but is completely making my mind explode with confusion that Birdman is now the frontrunner for BP and BD, and yet Michael Keaton is probably NOT the frontrunner for BA. It just makes no sense to me. I would have thought that the ONE award that Birdman would have the strongest chance of winning is Best Actor, and all other awards were secondary chances. It is such a comeback for Keaton, and so much about him. And I just do not get the mindset of someone voting for Birdman for BP and BD and not also marking the ballot for Keaton. If you love Birdman, and think it should win BP and BD, how can you also not vote for it for Actor?????? Can someone who loves Birdman and wants it to win BP and BD please explain this to me???? Is it sheerly the phenomenon of Redmayne playing a famous, medically-challenged person???

I’m still probably predicting Boyhood for Pic and Director, but I realize that is taking a risk. I don’t believe in past trends and stats being definitive. I just can’t see the Academy denying Boyhood and going for such a completely quirky choice as Birdman.

I also think people vote very differently now than they did before. I think years ago it was almost the rule that you voted the same for Pic and Director, and a Best Picture should be something with lots of acting noms or a major central acting performance. I don’t think the Academy voters think that way anymore. They are happy to split votes, and give BP to films that garner little else.

How is the Globe+WGA combination relevant here since two different movies have won them this year? Why do you keep COMPLETELY OMITTING the BFCA???

I added the WGA because it is part of my statement — that the Globe is a good predictor but mostly when it is combined with the WGA win. Which is a legit statement and supported by stats. You see, you state something like “He’s just dying to catch me say something I can’t substantiate with facts, and he can’t, so he just tries to get at me with nonsensical claims instead.” but it isn’t true. You started corrected me and making claims and making comments way before I did. I don’t care much about it and I don’t follow your posts. I come across them from time to time and most of the times I just skip them, but there wasn’t much lease to read this time.
But back to the subject – how is it twisting the facts that I added the WGA?! We’re talking about the writing Oscars and the WGA is crucial in the conversation and if I added it is because they are part of my own argument. Whatever.. You employ cheap rhetoric tactics and you could claim whatever you like. It’s just plain boring because one can’t argue with you.

“And by the way — give me an example of me twisting facts?! Especially the way you pretend WGA doesn’t matter because Birdman isn’t eligible. Because this is the worst facts twisting I’ve seen here.”

HOW??? How is that fact twisting? Did Budapest beat Birdman at the WGA? Do you KNOW what would have won, had Birdman also been eligible? NO. You’re the one twisting the facts, because you clearly CAN’T count the WGA AGAINST Birdman. You’re crazy if you don’t see that, and I have no wish to further debate that particular point with you anymore. We can talk about everything else, though.

“And as I’ve stated the Globe means nothing on its own. And adding the WGA means a lot in all of these cases.”

Gimme a break with the Globe. I’m talking about BFCA PLUS GLOBE…
Also – DID I ADD THE WGA??? YOU DID. I just said Critics’ Choice plus Golden Globe. Which is what Birdman has. Not JUST the Globe. Not JUST the BFCA. Learn to read!…

You twist facts! You pretend you don’t?! Don’t you really think that winning the WGA Award actually did help Sideways, Her and Midnight In Paris? Because yes, it did. It’s not twisting the facts. You cannot really pretend the WGA doesn’t matter because Birdman isn’t nominated. Because based on your Critics’ Choice stats, The Hurt Locker had no chance in hell winning the Oscar over Inglourious Basterds, yet it did. The WGA matters, no matter if it omits contenders. The BAFTA matters. You can’t pretend you can predict everything based on simplistic algorithms.
And I only made a comment based on the way you comment here and make it all about how great you are.
Thanks, Ryan, I’m Emma Stone, right?!

And of course you use three examples of films that all won the WGA Award. And as I’ve stated the Globe means nothing on its own. And adding the WGA means a lot in all of these cases. It’s not all about Birdman.

And no, I don’t spend all my time commenting on posts and pointing out how much people don’t get it and I do. I have 20-30 posts since December. I got a life and this here doesn’t mean much to me. Go on pretending that you know everything! Go on with your stats. You don’t say much. BYE!

“And yes, in my opinion you’re just a jerk who thinks way too highly of himself. Sad”

Hey, same here – cool! 🙂

“you need to read what people have written!”

No, YOU need to read what people have written: “OF COURSE the WGA win doesn’t count, with Birdman ineligible. This is not up for debate.”
Moron…

Ha, you are telling me that I don’t pay attention to details! HA! Twice!

“As I’ve written before, the Golden Globe is a very strong indicator but you pretend that it is a very strong indicator on its own, which isn’t the case.”

I mean, I don’t get how you can even write stuff like that when you KNOW Birdman also won the BFCA, which is an EVEN STRONGER precursor than the Globe… You just don’t pay attention to details, Zooey, this is your problem, clearly… Which is fine, but don’t try to tell us, who do pay attention, that we don’t know what the stats say, and you do, OK?!

OF COURSE the WGA win doesn’t count, with Birdman ineligible. This is not up for debate.
So, Zach, you’re saying that Globe PLUS Critics’ Choice screenplay wins are trumped by a BAFTA win alone? And you say the stats support this? ARE YOU SERIOUS???

2014 – Her wins BFCA+GG, loses BAFTA to American Hustle (and is, in fact, not even nominated!); Her wins the Oscar; 1-0;
2013 – Midnight in Paris wins BFCA+GG, loses BAFTA to The Artist; Midnight in Paris wins the Oscar; 2-0;
2005 – Sideways wins BFCA+GG, loses BAFTA to Eternal Sunsine of the Spotless Mind, which also wins the Oscar; 2-1.

So, the two more recent examples both have the BFCA and GG winner win screenplay over the BAFTA winner, to the one, older example, that doesn’t. What do the stats say again?…

“Birdman is not winning original screenplay. Don’t know why people can’t except this.”

Um, perhaps because nobody’s actually bringing forth any stats that prove WHY it’s not winning… oh, and because there aren’t any.

“True, but Gravity had no screenwriting nominations from either WGA or Oscar. And only Hamlet has won BP without either nomination for WGA or Oscar (since the existence of the WGA awards).”

I know that. But it was perceived as being in the race (its good guild performances prove it), even if it was unlikely to win. So the guild wins could have been interpreted as support for it to win BP, and the voters knew this full well.

@Claudiu

True, but Gravity had no screenwriting nominations from either WGA or Oscar. And only Hamlet has won BP without either nomination for WGA or Oscar (since the existence of the WGA awards).

But of course a case can still be made for Boyhood (since it won the ACE, and it wasn’t guaranteed to do that). It could be one of those few-Oscar winners, a la Argo, 12 Years, Crash, that just get the essentials (picture, maybe director, maybe screenplay, maybe editing, maybe a supporting actor/actress award – 3 out of these 5; picture, director, supporting actress in Boyhood’s case, most likely), while not being among the nomination leaders to begin with. The minor guild wins for Birdman could just be a sign that, like last year, with Gravity, it’s more of a favorite than anticipated to win in some of those categories, and, as far as BP goes, only that the race is close, but it could still lose. I don’t think Boyhood is under 30% yet, or that it ever will be. Birdman might be over 60% now, though. And Budapest I maintain is somewhere between 5% and 10%.

I agree, of course. It’s Birdman that’s getting those surprise guild wins that tend to announce the BP winner (like it was with Argo). And almost exclusively, since Budapest’s wins have all been pretty much expected…

And, honestly, as far as personal preference goes, I’d probably just replace The Greatest Show on Earth with From Here to Eternity, which is another one I just didn’t care for, really, even though it’s clearly a better made movie than TGSOE.

Ryan, I’m very curious to hear the results of our simulated ballot. When do you think we could see them?

“If Birdman is winning Best Picture, I just find it hard to see it winning only Cinematography else.”

There you go – it also wins screenplay (it’s the favorite) AND sound mixing (since it just won the CAS). Good enough? 🙂 Or do you think Birdman has to win 5+ to be legitimate, even though 12 Years a Slave got only 3, no BD, and still won BP. I can throw in Keaton if you want, since you seem to think he still has a chance…

“Here’s some wisdom folks, in the HISTORY of the Oscars there has NEVER been a successive three year period where the Best Picture didn’t win the most Oscars.”

See above – Birdman is getting at least 4 easily. You can add director too. 5. Is Budapest getting 6? I don’t think so… Argument invalid.

“everyone KNOWS GBH will win the most Oscars”

No, actually, nobody is even remotely sure of that. At Gold Derby they were actually debating whether Whiplash could win the most Oscars…

“I know its unlikely, but I genuinely feel like Budapest has some interesting momentum.”

It does, but to say it’s second now is a bit much, to say the least… It’s still a comedy with no acting nominations, which lost the BAFTA BP/BD despite being the most nominated movie. It’s plausible, for like 5% chances (1/20, the Braveheart precedent, which is roughly equivalent), but Boyhood is still the more plausible upset to the front-runner, Birdman (because the editing snub makes things not 100% clear as far as Birdman is concerned).

“It will have lots of 1s and, more importantly, tons of 2s and 3s on ballots.”

People never get tired of saying this about their favorites, despite having NO actual proof to back it up. And it always fails… Nobody was saying that about 12 Years a Slave last year, they all thought it was divisive (as they did/do Birdman), yet, look who won last year, and look who’s winning preferential races this year!…

“It may not have an acting nom, but neither did Slumdog/Return of the King”

Both won PGA+SAG+DGA – Budapest has won none. Braveheart is the example to give here – it also didn’t have an acting nom, and won neither of those. But that’s one exception in 20 years…

“It does have support from the actors (SAG Ensemble”

Less than Birdman, which WON SAG Ensemble, and did NOT have anybody snubbed for Oscar acting noms, like Budapest did.

“It won the Golden Globe Comedy/Musical.”

So did American Hustle, Les Miserables, The Kids are All Right, The Hangover (!!!), Vicky Christina Barcelona, Sweeney Todd, Dreamgirls, Walk the Line, Sideways etc.

“It won 5 BAFTAS.”

Yet lost BP/BD, and not even to Birdman, but to a third movie…

“It could win 5-6 Oscars, something you can’t say about Birdman”

WHAT??? Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound and possibly Actor… Whereas Budapest is actually an underdog for screenplay (not just stats-wise, the bookies have it at longer odds too) and can hardly win director. Besides, Gravity won a ton and that helped it a lot…

“I’m not convinced myself, but I think its at least a distinct possibility.”

It’s a small chance. Real but very small.

My worst 5 Best Picture winners (that I’ve seen)

1. Around the World in 80 Days
2. Crash
3. A Beautiful Mind
4. Oliver!
5. Argo

If Boyhood wins it would be the best winner since schindlers list.
If Birdman wins it would be some where in the middle .
Chariots of fire is the worst bp winner followed by the greatest show on earth .

Unlikely Hood, Al Pacino was nominated for an Oscar for 4 straight years without a win.

Sam, therein lies our differences – Grand Budapest makes ZERO sense to me winning, regardless of what awards it has/has not won/been nominated for. The Globes and Baftas may have not made a difference for Atonement but I think they absolutely will for Boyhood because both had hugely different trajectories; is it an exact science and does it make TOTALY sense? No. But if this were an exact science we would be able to accurately predict every winner for every award every year without debate.

Ryan, I hope I’m included in that statement, and not the exception… even if I turn out to be 100 percent wrong

Also if Grand Budapest wins I will simply have to write a book about why that will be THE most embarrassing and inane win the Academy could ever hold itself accountable for, and that includes Crash over Brokeback (I shockingly loved both, but obviously the latter more). It disturbs me to my inner core how much love it has already gotten.

Ok, yes, Argo won all the precursor awards, but in any given year, no Best Director nod is THE death toll for a best picture nominee — it would have been inconceivable in most years that a movie in that position would win (just as it would be inconceivable that a movie in Boyhood’s position right now, without the precursors, would win). And yet it all turned into Argo gaining “underdog status.” Boyhood is just too strong, and it’s got the Globe and the Bafta, which are the most “general” of the precursors — as in, the individual guilds may have supported different movies, but that’s just it, it’s not a consensus between EVERYONE, which the Oscars are. Of course I could be entirely wrong, but I think people will be looking back at Boyhood as the little movie that could and I definitely think it will win come Oscars – when was the last time a movie about domestic drama/ “normal” people won at the Oscars? American Beauty? I think Boyhood is the movie they’re gonna want to give that to, it’s the best in that genre we’ve had in years. This all coming from a huge Birdman fan, who wouldn’t mind seeing it win.

Chris, I actually haven’t even seen quite a few. Among the reasons, simply because I just can’t get even the least bit intrigued about a good number of them, with so many other options out there they feel too much like homework.

Here’re ranked the one’s that at the very least I love or at least find mighty interesting, therefore essential.

The rest I haven’t seen, I forgot (because they are forgettable), or failed to appreciate what the fuzz was about. I suspect BOYHOOD would place somewhere around the upper drawers. BIRDMAN would not make the list.

1. THE GODFATHER
2. THE GODFATHER PART II
3. ON THE WATERFRONT
4. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
5. UNFORGIVEN
6. ANNIE HALL
7. CASABLANCA
8. THE APARTMENT
9. SUNRISE: A SONG OF TWO HUMANS
10. LAWRENCE OF ARABIA
11. REBECCA
12. THE FRENCH CONNECTION
13. THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS
14. SCHINDLER’S LIST
15. ALL ABOUT EVE
16. THE DEER HUNTER
17. THE STING
18. ALL THE KING’S MEN
19. PLATOON
20. THE LOST WEEKEND
21. FROM HERE TO ETERNITY
22. TITANIC
23. THE HURT LOCKER
24. GENTLEMAN’S AGREEMENT
25. GLADIATOR
26. ORDINARY PEOPLE
27. THE DEPARTED
28. HAMLET
29. AMERICAN BEAUTY
30. 12 YEARS A SLAVE
31. MIDNIGHT COWBOY
32. DRIVING MISS DAISY
33. HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY
34. THE BRIDGE ON THE RIVER KWAI
35. THE LAST EMPEROR
36. CHARIOTS OF FIRE
37. IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT
38. THE RETURN OF THE KING
39. TERMS OF ENDEARMENT
40. PATTON

Yup, just checked the winners list. If Birdman wins I will have it ranked number 72 out of 87 BP winners.

Birdman won’t be the worst Best Picture winner ever. Let’s just clarify that up front. However, it might be in the bottom 20.

Boyhood is going to win Bp and Bd.

As expected from The Grand Budapest Hotel, and The Imitation Game, as far as WGA goes.

Let us say that now that Birdman seems most likely to have been the one to lose in Oscar BP category, will The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game or Boyhood be able to do magic down the home straight to the Oscar evening/morning? That’s my question . . . .

One of the fellow readers (somewhat one of my favorites, as well) is killing me softly though not with his song but with the two out of three “upsets” of his (i.e. Cumberbatch for Best Actor, and Hawke for Best Supporting Actor [I’m fine with either Birdman or Budapest Hotel possibly garnering the gold guy for BP]).
Oscar Gods, please, with sugar on top: Go with the flow — Eddie Redmayne or Michael Keyton (or the tie a la 0Dark30 and Skyfall in another category [I know it’s almost impossible, if not possible at all, but you know . . . ]) for Best Actor, and J.K. Simmons for Best Supporting Actor. Merci bien in advance.

As far as BP not winning the most awards for the 3rd year in a row… “Birdman” (if it wins) could easily tie or pass up “GBH”. It has some chances in Sound Mixing and BOS. And let’s not forget the KEATON!

Having said that. I just read EW’s final predictions and they had:
BP: “Boyhood” which I’d be ok with since the 12 production of the film is it’s most impressive feat.
BD: “Birdman” which is the right choice IMO since it was the most challenging and impressively executed film.
BOS: “GBH” which is where Wes Anderson is the strongest. Not to mention that it’s the MOST ORIGINAL of the 3 and is his best movie to date by far.

If a 3 way auteur split were to happen. Which would be kind of nice. This is the correct way to reward the 3 fantastic filmmakers.

ICHARP: Eddie Redmayne has won GG/SAG/BAFTA. In the last 20 yrs, only 1 actor with that combo has failed to win the Oscar – Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind. He had just won the previous year for The Gladiator and his bad-boy behavior during the 2002 Oscar season hurt him.

If the Grand Budapest story is inspired the writings of Stefan Zweig, shouldn’t this have been in the Adapted Screenplay category? http://filmcutting.com/wga-awards-film-grand-budapest-imitation-game-big-winners/

http://oscars.ctv.ca/News/Best-Actor-Oscar-Race-CTV-ca-Picks-the-Winners
Another

http://www.marshallfrank.com/articles/2015/02/oscar-predictions-for-2015/
And…..another

First time I didn’t see “Birdman win…” and because it is not eligible. Happy for The Imitation Game, though I thought this is were should Gone Girl win as a reward.

*I hope Eddie Redmayne doesn’t win, that is.

If there’s a movie that can trump all the negative precursors, that movie is Boyhood. But Birdman sweeping the tech guilds last night doesn’t bode well at all, there’s the perception of a clear frontrunner now and everyone’s jumping on its bandwagon. We’re close to a call here.

Had Ralph Fiennes been deservingly nominated for Best Actor, I could have seen The Grand Budapest Hotel posing a threat for the big one, yes it’s a comedy but so was The Artist, albeit the latter could count on its “movie about the industry” factor. Birdman will sweep and it’s a great movie but this will be a huge lost chance for the Academy. Birdman is amazing but Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel will be the ones that will stand the test of time, they’re like instant classics.

If there is any hope for a Braveheart-Apollo 13 upset against Birdman, I think the film that has the best chance at doing so is The Grand Budapest Hotel, not Boyhood. Boyhood won only ACE Drama, but Budapest won ACE Comedy and WGA Original.

For comparison, consider this…

Best Picture winner Braveheart won ACE (when they did not have split categories for comedy and drama) and WGA Original, and it also had the most Oscar nominations that year with ten.

Budapest won ACE Comedy and WGA Original, and it is tied with Birdman for most nominations this year with nine.

Looks like the beneficiary of the WGA this year is based on previous precursors is The Grand Budapest Hotel, and it probably has leapfrogged Boyhood to take second place behind Birdman.

Here’s some wisdom folks, in the HISTORY of the Oscars there has NEVER been a successive three year period where the Best Picture didn’t win the most Oscars. Sure, there were a lot of back to back years where the BP didn’t have the most Oscars most recently (76/77), but NEVER has there been 3 straight years. So we’ve had Argo (trailed Pi), 12 Years (trailed Gravity) and now…everyone KNOWS GBH will win the most Oscars, but they’re going to make history by choosing Birdman?? GET ON THE BUDAPEST TRAIN AND RIDE TO GLORY!

Did I hear someone lobbying for an Oscar for Dick Poop?

Cumberbatch should have won for August Osage County

HP!!!!!!!!! You are the best!!! Could this mean the the rise of The Imitation Game as a dark horse in some major categories? I sure hope so. I have a feeling it is. Also, my gut tells me that for all the fawning that Eddie Redmayne has received from all other award shows…….he is NOT going to win the Oscar. The same feeling I had before Benedict Cumberbatch pulled off that huge upset at the Emmys last year and won ‘Best Actor in a Lead Role in a Miniseries/Movie’ despite all the odds being stacked against him. Praying for a surprise at the Oscars. Also, I have been reading a lot of articles in the past few weeks that basically say-
Should win: Cumberbatch
Will win: Redmayne
Could be nothing…………or could be Weinstein. Either way…….Cumberbatch deserves it.

They HAD to give Screenplay to Argo to validate its BP win. Boyhood is getting an acting win in any scenario. That’s why the scenario I feel less likely to happen is Linklater-Birdman. If Birdman is winning Best Picture, I just find it hard to see it winning only Cinematography else. Still hope It loses BP but Michael Keaton somehow ends up winning.

The Departed had no real competition. All the other BP nominees were Original that year. It had a good script also. It’s not the case of The Aviator, which also competed with non-BP nominees and lost to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, in my opinion, one of the best screenplays of the century, an undeniable winner just like Her (and ESOTSM would also be a BP nominee if the current system existed then). Milk competed with non-BP nominees and an undeniable script but that one was an animated and we know how the Actors don’t appreciate animated films. They were never voting for it.

@Al Robinson

Could win editing as well (unless Budapest or Whiplash takes that prize).

Over time, The Grand Budapest Hotel has climbed back up my top films list of 2014. I have loved it since the first time, but then kept getting swayed towards other newer films as I saw them. But I think The Grand Budapest Hotel has temendous staying power, and will be deemed a classic someday. I was saying the other day I think it looks iconic in it’s imagery. Anyway, I’m also happy for both wins for The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Imitation Game.

What I’m really starting to wonder is, if Birdman wins both Best Picture and Best Director, and The Grand Budapest Hotel wins Best Original Screenplay, where does that leave Boyhood? Could Boyhood really only win 1 Oscar (for Patricia Arquette for Best Supporting actress)??

I mean Argo, not Birdman. Argo won all four guild prizes.

“Oh dear Alex. Argo won SAG, DGA and PGA like Birdman. Not sure it’s the best example to use.’

It also won WGA as well. Not a great example, indeed.

Oh and Bafta counts too 🙂

@Michael, Claudiu

I think Boyhood was more of a directorial effort rather than a screenwriting effort. Not saying the script its bad, it’s just that the movie focused more on direction like Michel Hazanavivicius’ The Artist was than writing.

If “Grand Budapest” wins BP I think I’ll actually die from having the most absolutely joyful orgasm ever.

That would make me SO happy.

Boyhood got 4 of Budapest’s votes, Birdman 1. But who knows if it’ll be the same with the Academy… if people will have liked Whiplash as much… very hard to say.

Oh, I don’t THINK Budapest will win. 🙂 I’m just saying, the stats don’t completely rule it out, actually, due to the Braveheart precedent. It seems unlikely to me to repeat that one’s “performance” due to its genre/lightness, but who knows?!

Claudiu, Budapest would seem strongest for 3rd, how do you think the preferences will split Boyhood v Birdman

Claidiu, I actually hope you are right, anything but Birdman!!

SAML, you are hilarious,lol.

No film has EVER won BP after losing SAG, PGA, DGA, and WGA. So long Boyhood! It would be 30 years since a film has won PGA, DGA, & SAG and lost, as well as the storied missing Editing nom. Adios, Birdman! Come along for the win on Budapest, which just keeps picking up awards right and left!

Shit! That’t the second time today that I have mistaken AMPAS nominees for WGA. This year has gotten me so disorientated. But don’t worry, I have the simulated ballot on auto-pilot.

Oh dear Alex. Argo won SAG, DGA and PGA like Birdman. Not sure it’s the best example to use.

I also think if a film is going to stop boyhood good that it’s birdman and not typical Oscar bait like imitation game or theory of everything. It would be a very out of the box choice for AMPAS

I was being sarcastic, by the way…

Steve, don’t you think it is kind of sad that you are so angry and at the same time pretending you are calm and telling people to calm down on the Internet?

Larry, calm down

Andrew, Birdman didn’t only win one BAFTA award, are you worried?

Andrew, are you anti Boyhood or something? What if Boyhood becomes the one that wins Best Picture without any guild wins? Are you going to jump out of your building if that happens? No need to rub your nose in it.

Was hoping Boyhood to pull an upset, oh well. Let’s hope for an upset at the Oscars,,,,

Grand Budepest won, I did not expect Boyhood to win here , though it should have

I hope Boyhood pulls a win. If that is the case, at least it will have ACE and WGA win, and it might pull a Braveheart,,,