Lead Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Lead Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
These four actors have championed prizes in their respective categories from the three award shows—SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globes—that are instrumental for a success at the Academy Awards. There should be no hysterical dramatics and edge-of-your-seat anxiety during the Oscars for a nominee when they have swept the category clean at all of the preceding award shows. The absence of those hysterical dramatics in the race can lead to people who spend a superfluous amount of time thinking about the outcome of these awards to speculate who would win if the frontrunner were not nominated in the category.
So, who would in each category win if the frontrunner didn’t exist? With little evidence and much confusion over the past few months of this year’s Oscar race, it’s not something easily calculated.
LEAD ACTRESS
Despite early distress about the strength of contenders in this field, the Academy ended up producing an array of impressive performances in its lead actress field. If Julianne Moore would have won for Far from Heaven, The Hours or Boogie Nights, this would be the biggest prediction gamble of Oscar night.
Once you take the projected winner, Moore, out of the lineup, the list of nominees divides into two subgroups: 1) Felicity Jones and Marion Cotillard, 2) Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon.
Particularly when picking predictions for the BAFTA awards, many pundits and award season followers pitted Jones in the runner-up position for The Theory of Everything. Yes, she is a co-lead in a popular film with the older Academy members, but the performance itself has never been the distinctive focal point of the film’s praise. Her role is not as dramatically heavy as her fellow nominees, and the industry’s good will for the Stephen Hawking biopic is being dosed over Eddie Redmayne’s work.
The numerous awards Cotillard won from critic associations is probably what kept her alive enough to hop into the last Best Actress spot, despite being excluded from the Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations. The performance itself, though considered brilliant by many, is quite subdued, lacking the overt fireworks of Witherspoon and Pike’s towering performances. And the last foreign language performance to win was Cotillard herself in 2007, and whether we like it or not, to win an Oscar for a non-English-speaking role is not common. In addition, Cotillard has a history of being unpopular with the Academy since her win for La Vie en Rose. Many regard her missing the Academy’s lineup for Rust and Bone and Nine to be egregious snubs.
If Moore weren’t in the race, it would most likely come down to Pike and Witherspoon.
After Wild’s premiere at Telluride this past summer, Witherspoon’s buzz was moving at an accelerated level. But whenever the film was released widely, the critical acclaim was there…the support just never felt as passionate as we were led to believe. But still, Witherspoon received the best reviews of her career for her portrayal as Cheryl Strayed, she has been working the campaign trail harder than anyone and had a “comeback” year after a decade of flops and tabloid treachery. Taking the role itself was a drastic change of pace for Witherspoon, and the fact that she pulled it off terrifically could have won her a second Oscar, had Moore not been in the race.
The major problem that would have prevented Pike from going all the way is the distance the Academy put between itself and Gone Girl in every category but Best Actress. (Many are still waiting to wake up from the terrible dream and learn Gillian Flynn’s snub in Adapted Screenplay was a bad dream.) But everything else is in Pike’s favor. Playing a character as memorable and iconic as Amazing Amy holds more weight than most are giving it credit for. Pike disappears into a role that is bound to ignite some form of strong reaction from just about everyone who watches the Gone Girl. And besides starring in an R-rated film that grossed over $165 million domestically, she was named as the best actress preference by over a dozen critic associations.
Projected Outcome without Julianne Moore
1. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
2. Reese Witherspoon, Wild
3. Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
4. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
LEAD ACTOR
This category is not as securely fastened as the others, because Birdman has won the major guild awards in spades, and before Redmayne won the SAG, most were predicting Michael Keaton to soar to Oscars. Keaton was the critics’ darling of this category and the Golden Globe winner in the musical/comedy category. To bet against Redmayne and his winning streak would be imprudent, but Keaton is still viable option for a Best Actor win if his film scores the Best Picture trophy. If Redmayne wouldn’t win, it would (and could) be Keaton.
The wild card of the group this year is Bradley Cooper for American Sniper, because he has not competed in any other award show until the AMPAS. His movie has surged at the box office, making inconceivable amounts of money, and the Academy proved their admiration for Eastwood’s war on terror effort by nominating it six times this year. This is Cooper’s third consecutive acting nomination from the Academy, and it stands to reason that the politics of playing a United States veteran could finally put him in a more “winner-friendly” stature. If American Sniper performs better at the ceremony than many pundits surmise, it would not be too surprising to see Cooper upstage the two other frontrunners.
Steve Carell launched the season with glowing reviews out of the Cannes Film Festival for Foxcatcher, but his buzz began to wilt as the year progressed and other performances joined the sprint to the finish line. Benedict Cumberbatch, currently an “it” man in pop culture, acquired raves for playing Alan Turing, but so far this season The Imitation Game has a barren record despite piles of nominations.
Projected Outcome without Eddie Redmayne
1. Michael Keaton, Birdman
2. Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
4. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette has been invincible the past few months for her moving work in Boyhood. Because of her popularity with the critic association awards and the televised award shows, we do not have the smallest indication to even suggest an alternate frontrunner. The only contender that began to build a case against Arquette was Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, but she ended the season with a snub from the Academy. Any one of the other nominees could rise to the occasion if Arquette would not have been nominated.
Meryl Streep’s nomination always felt secure for her creative turn in Into the Woods, but it seems as if people are not taking her film seriously enough to reward it in a substantial way. Laura Dern’s nomination was an inspired one considering her role in Wild is limited to flashbacks–which means a smaller amount of screentime–and the fact that she was largely ignored before her nomination from the Academy.
Keira Knightley rode The Imitation Game’s buzz to all of the crucial award shows this year. In playing Joan Clarke, Knightley does her usual melodramatic, aggressive British act and she has Harvey Weinstein’s heavy promotion in her favor, but I hesitate about relying on her rank in the race too heavily. Knightley’s role, in a similar way to Jones in Lead Actress, does not feel vigorous enough to take down her co-nominees.
Birdman reminds me of American Hustle in the Oscar race last year. The ensemble was among the most heralded aspects of the film and several of the actors were nominated, yet none of them were unable surmount the frontrunner and most likely took second place. Like American Hustle, Birdman lacks an acting frontrunner despite having various performances nominated.
To compare Emma Stone’s standing to Jennifer Lawrence’s position last year would be unfair because the Lawrence had more going for her, but Stone relates to her in another way: She holds a position in pop culture that could have been an entry into frontrunner status had it not been for Arquette. Also, Stone benefits from starring in a Best Picture frontrunner, having an uproar of an “Oscar clip” and losing a significant amount of weight to portray her character more accurately. She makes the most sense of the non-Arquette contenders.
Projected Outcome without Patricia Arquette
1. Emma Stone, Birdman
2. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
3. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
4. Laura Dern, Wild
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Like Best Actress, a race without J.K. Simmons for Whiplash in Best Supporting Actor would divide the other nominees into two groups: 1) Mark Ruffalo and Robert Duvall, 2) Ethan Hawke and Edward Norton.
Duvall was one of the better attributes of The Judge, but his nomination feels like a gesture of reverence from his peers, showing their appreciation for all his years of hard work in the business. Mark Ruffalo has settled into a place in the film industry as a character actor, like his work in Foxcatcher exemplifies. His respect may be growing in the industry, but it’s not enough to climb over the other, more emphatic performances in his company.
In a world where Simmons was not orchestrating another Supporting Actor sweep (like we saw in previous years with Jared Leto, Christopher Plummer, Christian Bale, Christoph Waltz, Heath Ledger, Javier Bardem, ect.), the hypothetical winner would most likely be either Ethan Hawke in Boyhood or Edward Norton in Birdman.
After winning a fair amount of critics association awards, Norton’s loud, grabbing, memorable turn would probably be named the best of the year, especially when the industry’s support of his film is taken into consideration. I do have my reservations because of Hawke and the general question surrounding which film the Academy will support more: Birdman or Boyhood? Hawke gives a more flavorful performance in Boyhood than his co-star Patricia Arquette, and yet she is the undivided frontrunner for Supporting Actress. In addition, he has paid his dues and collected several nominations over the years from the Academy between acting and writing.
Projected Outcome without J.K. Simmons
1. Edward Norton, Birdman
2. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
3. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
4. Robert Duvall, The Judge
![2025 Oscars: Can a Late-Breaker Still Win Best Picture? [POLL]](https://www.awardsdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/gladiator-350x250.jpg)
In playing Joan Clarke, Knightley does her usual melodramatic, aggressive British act
lol wha?
Hawke gives a more flavorful performance in Boyhood than his co-star Patricia Arquette, and yet she is the undivided frontrunner for Supporting Actress.
ummm…
Marion Cotillard is unpopular in Hollywood? Where’s this coming from? She’s charming and humble, but she turns down wife/girlfriend/mother roles because that’s all generally offered in Movieland. That’s one reason to dislike her? Also, she turns down blockbusters when the director can’t explain why he wants to make the film. That’s another reason, I guess.
Look, the woman’s credentials are already out there. She can make movies in Europe or here, she speaks several languages, she’s
considered the best actress of her generation by most critics (read it for yourself on Rotten Tomatoes), and a genius (Cate Blanchett). So to just throw that remark out there with no proof harms the writer’s credibility, not Cotillard’s,. In addition, what does “popularity” have to do with one’s work in a movie? Or how much money the actress has made in her career? Tell that to Meryl. The criteria should go back to being: best performance of the year in a leading role, and IN A FINE FILM. and why was Moore set out as the leader in September? What does that do to the other artists doing good work? Was it the “it’s her time” argument, as if an Oscar was an aristocratic inheritance, or (worse) the vote for cheerleaders in high school. Do the AMPAS members get to vote any more? If not, who is making these judgements about someone taking the lead? September strikes me as a little early to shut off all competition.
By the way, Houston got TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT and STILL ALICE both on the same day in early February 2015. Is anyone award this is the fourth-largest city in the US?
Yes, Robert, Eddie is the Frontrunner. Just…..not an assured winner. What Eddie has done in ‘Theory’ has been done before, and better too. However, AMPAS is what it is. 🙁
Randall, I do not have a “crush” on Eddie Redmayne, and frankly it’s beyond rude to suggest that’s why someone might want him to win. You prefer Michael Keaton’s performance; I prefer Eddie’s. Has anyone insulted you for your preferred nominee? I’m sorry if someone pointing out fact that Eddie won the GG Drama, SAG and BAFTA makes you so upset, but alas these are the facts so far in the race to date. Maybe Keaton will win. And that’s fine. But the reality is that the GG Drama, SAG & BAFTA winner is always the frontrunner.
Remember Marcia Gay Harden?
Watch out for Felicity Jones. Older white american male voters sure love their supporting actresses being wives to problematic male geniouses.
Anyone for Actor is fine by me except for Cumberbact (loathe the movie) and Carrel (meh)
Yours,
T.
I mean, Savage Grace rs.
Completely agree with everything, except for Supporting Actress.
Stone’s role is so in the background, except for her only Oscar scene, the “relevant” one.
I believe if Arquette isn’t unbelievably invincible, Knightley will win.
Meryl, though GREAT as usual, but they just won’t let her win the third time for this role.
and I don’t even know what to say about Dern, her amazing “cameo” is even on the verge of non-existence.
It’s interesting to notice that Julianne and Eddie were mother and son in “Savage Garden “.
Another curious fact: if Julianne does win Best Lead Actress, we should consider the “Alec Baldwin factor” since Cate Blanchett also portrayed a wife to Alec’s character in Blue Jasmine…
Cate Blanchett is presenting Best Actor. Eddie Redmayne played a pivotal role as her attempted assassin in Elizabeth, The Golden Age. Redmayne is winning.
Thanks for that Ryan!
Aniston would not have won a la Bullock (2009) because Aniston was not in two films in the same year that made hundreds of millions of dollars (The Proposal, Blind Side), and Cake was not a Best Picture nominee (Blind Side).
(Robin Write, I don’t know how your comment got hung up in ‘pending moderation’ — I’ll double-post it to bring your contribution back to top the thread, ok?)
I wonder if Arquette were in the Best Actress race instead of BSA, would she give Moore a run for her money? Arquette did win the Best Actress trophy at the L.A. Film Critics for the same role. Being in the BP frontrunner would give Moore stiffer competition than any of the these other 4 nominees.
“In the Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy meets the Scarecrow and they do that little dance at that crossroads and they think about going in all those directions and end up going that one direction. All those other directions, just because they thought about it, became separate realities.They just went on from there and lived the rest of their lives, entirely different movies. But we’ll never see it because we’re trapped in this one reality.”
It is near impossible to say what would have happened if we did not have the current front runners. What evidence can be possibly have of an alternative reality? If Julianne Moore would have won for Far from Heaven? Or The Hours? Or Boogie Nights? How about what if she had been even nominated, for Safe? For The Big Lebowski? A Single Man? Or more recently, what if she could have had Maps To The Stars to give her coverage?
It sure is a gamble to try and predict who would win otherwise. It can only take one single thing, like the Maps To The Stars not getting the coverage. Nobody was talking about Still Alice back then. Nobody. And Moore has been the frontrunner since then. For months. Who knows what the Best Actress Race would have looked like had that not happened?
Rosamund Pike surely. But AMPAS just did not like Gone Girl did they. We can believe that won’t have made a difference, but believe me, it does. Ask Michael Fassbender. I suspect had the Academy lapped up Gone Girl, Pike would have been a force to be reckoned with. Who knows, maybe without Moore, Pike alone could have carried her movie a little bit further. Opened a few more eyes. Opened a few more doors. Different realities.
Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Jones have kind of been default nominees since forever. Both deserved. And I agree, Jones is a focal point in The Theory of Everything, but as that movie seems to have over-achieved in awards season and Jones still has not had frontrunner status, you would have to say it would not be her. Would Witherspoon’s previous win go for or against her? Marion Cotillard has won before too. But, yes, not nominated for Rust and Bone. Do they even like her? I would love to see how they rank according to votes. And I would love to see who their sixth and seventh choice was.
Oh I could go on all day about this sort of thing. One other thing I will say, and I like Patricia Arquette, but Jessica Chastain for me was the real winner for A Most Violent Year. The Academy continue to disappoint, I mean, they can’t please everyone. But you still have to scratch your head at the absence of Chastain. Would you say the whole Interstellar campaigning fiasco contributed here?
Um to the person above who said this is just another boring Oscars season, the Best Picture race is the most exciting it’s been ever. People are in a complete 50/50 split as to what will win with a lot of outliers (American Sniper, Selma, Imitation Game, Grand Budapest) even being predicted. Best Actor is not completely sewn up, and the screenplay categories are insanely unpredictable this year. This is the kind of year people wait for. Yeah, most of the acting categories got pretty boring, but how often do we actually have a race for Best Picture?!
Right! And it started the awards season with a bang. Shame.
Robin, to my mind Oscars really screwed the pooch by not including Chastain, Isaac, Chandor (dir/writing), Young (cinematography) at the very least. BP would have been nice, too.
I have a feeling it’ll have a longer shelf life than American Imitation of Everything
Had Steve Carell were campaigned for supporting actor, he would have been the one who could have upset J.K. Simmons, in my opinion.
Hah, that photo of Moore and Redmayne reminded me of Savage Grace. They work really well together. They should do another film as a team.
Shame Steve50, as Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year is one of the best performances by anyone from last year without any shadow of a doubt. The movie itself is one of the best off the last few years. Effing campaigning.
“Would you say the whole Interstellar campaigning fiasco contributed here?” (re: Chastain)
Absolutely, it did, Robin – no question. That and the fact that AMVY was released so late and is the type of film that has a very slow build. You never – ever – release a thoughtful/subtle film during the Xmas rush if you expect it to get the attention it deserves. Nobody wanted to talk about an unflashy film and the highest profile star was forbidden to mention it. Not a winning marketing strategy in my book.
I think removing the frontrunner requires adding in a replacement 5th nominee, who could potentially win the race. That being said, I think these 4 would win the categories in that situation:
– Keaton
– Aniston
– Norton
– Stone
Lovely long comment Robin
Thank you Keifer. Finally…..Cumberbatch, people!
My problem with Redmayne is that the Academy will make the most obvious choice: the physical transformation. Redmayne displayed a top-notch technique, but left me cold in terms of emotions. It’s an academic (no pun intended) performance, and it is really good but not worthy of an Oscar, in my humble opinion.
The little train that could . . . Benedict Cumberbatch for “The Imitation Game”. A wonderful Oscar-worthy performance.
I’m routing for BC to win BA.
^^^ My Long Comment Has Arrived (12th one down I think) ^^^
Okay……..can we please talk about something other than the Oscars now? Or at least somebody other than Eddie? As much as I may agree to Eddie being an above average actor……mind you, I do not particularly like him…….but despite my respect, sort of, for the man……..I have had quite enough of Eddie for one night. Can we move on to the new Sherlock series 4 trailer released a few days ago? Just for the sake of some change.
My long post is awaiting moderation, but so far up the page now, so long ago, I doubt it will get seen now anyway. I feel like Mia Wasikowsa’s Tracks.
An Eddie and Felicity win would break the internet and make some people suicidal. LOL! I’ll settle for just Eddie. 😀
Deydou……..I agree with the fact that Julianne Moore’s was not the best performance this year. Hope……no let us pray for a surprise.
Yes yes yes, Simone, Eddie Redmayne is God. Honestly, no pun intended. Just……..my God is different.
“Her role is not as dramatically heavy as her fellow nominees”
How can you be so wrong Sasha. Felicity Jones is magnificient in this movie. She’s it’s heart and soul.
If it wasn’t for Moore’s make up Oscar, she should definitely win.
Robin Write…….where is the long post, though?
@ICHARP, if there is going to be a spoiler at the Oscars, I would not be shocked if Bradley Cooper pulls it off. I know the film is polarizing, but he was just that good in it. American Sniper deserves to win several awards, and it may win in a shocking category. But beyond that, it’s Eddie’s to lose.
@Robin, I HATE, detest all this front runner crap. I will go on record and say that I hate the fact that Julieanne will win this year when it should be Rosamund. I would prefer to see anyone else than Arquette win Supporting. But I’m cool with JK Simmons’ wins. Of all the great performances in a year, I just find it pathetic that people are willing to be so locked in step and vote for the safe bets. Add some stank into these races during the entire time and let us all be shocked and pissed when the name is finally announced. It’s so Fing boring knowing whose going to win all the time. I hate it.
Robin Write…….yes, please. Surprises did happen earlier, though. Praying for one this year.
No offence, though, Simone…….I kinda enjoy slamming Eddie too, just objectively. But in my defence, people are slamming Cumberbatch, Cooper and Carell just as much. Its just that I have seen people do what Redmayne did on a daily basis and better too, so I cannot sympathise with Redmayne’s limitation of resources.
It would be nice to see a varied taste right across the critics, the guilds, the academy, everyone. A consensus always seems to prevail, and the same people tend to win. This is nothing against those that win. I bet if we took the race away. And campaigning. Just got people to watch the movie, then vote, without influence. The range of choices would be very surprising.
We good then, Simone? You know the best solution out of this rut? Neither Keaton nor Redmayne wins. Anybody else. I think I will pray for that now. Any kind of change in the awards season please. *Sheepish grin
No need to apologize ICHARP :), trust me when I say that commenters at another place I visit regularly, and all over the internet, have complete joy in slamming Redmayne. Said fools also thought Jupiter Ascending would be a nail in his coffin on the way to his Oscar. If Eddie were 10 years older, I wonder how his haters and detractors would be reacting towards him. But because he’s a younger looking that 33 year old, freckled, Ginger hair Briton, they can mock him and discount his excellent performance.
I’m just tired of it because it’s unwarranted.
Also, yeah……..I agree, awards season holds no suspense anymore. A rather drab state of affairs isn’t it? This predictable character the awards season has adopted in the past few years.
Sorry if you feel that way Simone. I personally had no such intention and Keaton is not my favourite actually. I have tried very hard to not belittle Redmayne in any way as I really hope is evident in my post. I completely agree that his performance in ‘Theory’ is wonderful. Sorry anyway.
Right Simone. This happens all over the place though. Not just here. Other sites. Bloggers. Journalists. Critics. When personal choices look like they might not win, everything else gets mud thrown at it – one way or another. Do we think The King’s Speech and The Artist would get so much stick now had they NOT won Best Picture?
@ICHARP No one is fighting, we all are entitled to our opinions. I’m just exhausted by the perceived disrespect towards Eddie Redmayne as he has long posed a threat to everyone else’s favorite, Keaton. The attitude towards Eddie has been at the rudest levels I have ever seen! The writing is on the wall for Redmayne to win as he won the same main awards as the other locks. I understand that Keaton is your and many other people’s favorites, but the denial many of you have about the inevitable is quite shocking. I suppose you’re just being hopeful, but it’s at the sake of belittling the achievements of Mr. Redmayne.
Okay…….wait, can we please stop fighting like…….like babies, please. I am not a Redmayne fan, Randall, and want him to win about as much as you do. But, even if he does win…….it would be okay, I suppose, considering his performance is very good. However, Simone, I do not believe it was the best performance of the year (as I have mentioned in my really long post, earlier) and Keaton deserves to win just because of his seniority. Otherwise…..well…..I suppose all those nominated deserve it. They were all great. I know I seem a little bossy…..and I am terribly sorry, Randall and Simone, but please don’t fight.
Everybody has a man crush on this guy(Redmayne), it’s sickening,sad and unprofessional.Michael Keaton WILL WIN the best actor race
@Randall, dude, really? LOL!
check this out:
Everybody has a man crush on this guy(Keaton), it’s sickening,sad and unprofessional. Eddie Redmayne WILL WIN the best actor race
Simone, sorry……but we do not have emotional hatred for Redmayne. Mine is an objective opinion. I agree he is great in the film…….if you read my previous post, please.
Anybody but Redmayne please!
It’s going to be quite entertaining here at AD the very moment Eddie Redmayne wins the Oscar. Some of you have such an uncontrolled emotional hatred for a performance and film most of you refuse to even watch! Like Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress and Actor, the Best Actor category is a lock.
Period.
Thank you Randall
If any of the three frontrunners weren’t nominated, that Eddie Redmayne would be the winner of all four acting awards,plus best director,both screenplay categories,animated film,song,score and all sound categories.Everybody has a man crush on this guy(Redmayne), it’s sickening,sad and unprofessional.Michael Keaton WILL WIN the best actor race.
I think Jennifer Anniston would have been the Best Actress front runner without Moore, given that she probably would have won Globe and SAG, and would have gotten in for the nomination easily given that she would have been the only one in the race people considered in need of a career honor type Oscar. She would have pulled a Sandra Bullock.
And now it has re-appeared but “awaiting moderation”, making me look a bit insane (I swear it was not there earlier). Please delete this and the comment above to prevent further damage to my reputation. 😀
Oh-oh, where is that comment / essay I posted about an hour ago?
*history of emotions……..lol, I meant ‘host of emotions’
Robert, I agree that Eddie’s performance is fantastic, and I am not criticising him. His face does communicate his emotions beautifully, despite limited resources in terms of expression. But so does Kalki’s in ‘Margarita’ and Bachchan’s in ‘Paa’. Yet, they were not even nominated. Also…..isolating the physicality of Eddie’s performance and keeping that aside…….there is nothing particularly spectacular about his performance. It is great……just not jaw-dropping great. I am an Indian classical dancer, and Indian classical dances have a well rooted, old and strong tradition of story telling, much like theatre without dialogues. So much so that our dance when categorised into styles, is most often categorised into Nritta (the technical aspect, involving rhythm) and Nritya (narration of the stories in our scriptures). So, I have seen dancers express stories and depict characters without having the resources of a set to match the situation, without costumes, without dialogues and most importantly doing it live, in a single go, without takes. Yes, you could say dance and acting are different…..they are…….but in terms of expression, the only difference in a dancer’s depiction of a character and an actor’s is that dance requires subtler expressions than acting, yet requiring the same intensity, again a disadvantage for dancers…….and yet I have seen people express a history of emotions far better than Redmayne. So no I cannot consider Redmayne’s performance great when people do it on an everyday basis.
What is great is to depict a giant personality like Turing’s with practically no information about him. I mean, compare how much information there is about Hawking to how much there is about Turing. The lack of information is topped by the lack of freedom that comes with fictional characters. Cumberbatch is the only actor who was expected to give a factually accurate performance (in terms of Turing’s mannerisms, as certified by Turing’s family), without really knowing the facts. Now that is a tall order, which Cumberbatch fulfills beautifully.
I do not understand all this hate towards Eddie Redmayne and The Theory of Everything. Is it some bias against British films and British actors? What in the world is Keira Knightley’s “aggressive British act?” Are you saying she was the same in Atonement, for example, as she is in Imitation Game? Because she’s not.
Eddie’s is my favorite performance of the year, male or female. And it’s not just the physicality of the role– his face communicates so beautifully even after his character can no longer speak.
And Randall, if Michael Keaton had won the SAG, Bafta and GG drama, you’d certainly be saying he’s the frontrunner. But he didn’t. He still might win, but Eddie Redmayne is the clear frontrunner.
Still can’t believe Jake Gyllenhaal wasn’t nominated!
Oh! I forgot to mention the name of the movie I believe Amitabh Bachchan should have been awarded for. I mean, not that people will care, but he is an actor I respect very much. The movie is ‘Paa’.
“In the Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy meets the Scarecrow and they do that little dance at that crossroads and they think about going in all those directions and end up going that one direction. All those other directions, just because they thought about it, became separate realities.They just went on from there and lived the rest of their lives, entirely different movies. But we’ll never see it because we’re trapped in this one reality.”
It is near impossible to say what would have happened if we did not have the current front runners. What evidence can be possibly have of an alternative reality? If Julianne Moore would have won for Far from Heaven? Or The Hours? Or Boogie Nights? How about what if she had been even nominated, for Safe? For The Big Lebowski? A Single Man? Or more recently, what if she could have had Maps To The Stars to give her coverage?
It sure is a gamble to try and predict who would win otherwise. It can only take one single thing, like the Maps To The Stars not getting the coverage. Nobody was talking about Still Alice back then. Nobody. And Moore has been the frontrunner since then. For months. Who knows what the Best Actress Race would have looked like had that not happened?
Rosamund Pike surely. But AMPAS just did not like Gone Girl did they. We can believe that won’t have made a difference, but believe me, it does. Ask Michael Fassbender. I suspect had the Academy lapped up Gone Girl, Pike would have been a force to be reckoned with. Who knows, maybe without Moore, Pike alone could have carried her movie a little bit further. Opened a few more eyes. Opened a few more doors. Different realities.
Reese Witherspoon and Felicity Jones have kind of been default nominees since forever. Both deserved. And I agree, Jones is a focal point in The Theory of Everything, but as that movie seems to have over-achieved in awards season and Jones still has not had frontrunner status, you would have to say it would not be her. Would Witherspoon’s previous win go for or against her? Marion Cotillard has won before too. But, yes, not nominated for Rust and Bone. Do they even like her? I would love to see how they rank according to votes. And I would love to see who their sixth and seventh choice was.
Oh I could go on all day about this sort of thing. One other thing I will say, and I like Patricia Arquette, but Jessica Chastain for me was the real winner for A Most Violent Year. he Academy continue to disappoint, I mean, they can’t please everyone. But you still have to scratch your head at the absence Tof Chastain. Could we say the whole Interstellar campaigning fiasco contributed here?
Hope either Keaton or Cumberbatch win.
Thank you Alper. I have said this time and time again. Physical transformation should never be the defining feature of acting as an art. Besides if physical transformation is indeed so important, than why did Amitabh Bachchan’s performance of a progeria affected teenager not even get nominated, let alone win, when it was far superior to Redmayne’s in ‘Theory’? Also this year Kalki Koechlin’s performance of a girl afflicted with Cerebral Palsy in ‘Margarita, With a Straw’ was as physically transformative and more nuanced than Redmayne’s. That too did not get nominated, let alone win any award at all. And what does Redmayne’s performance have, to distinguish it, but physical transformation? Such hypocrisy. These awards juries are more inconsistent than political parties of the world put together.
I’m going to hope against hope that Keaton will still win.
If Julianne Moore,J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette weren’t in the running,the Rosamund Pike,Edward Norton,Emma Stone would have won. In the Case of Eddie Redmayne(by the way is not the frontrunner)wasn’t running,then in this case THE REAL WINNER would be Michael Keaton(who IS the real frontrunner)would win.
And what the frontrunners were replaced by the egregious snubs you mentioned? What if Jake Gyllenhall was in Best Lead Actor, Amy Adams in Best Lead Actress, Jessica Chastain in Best Supp. Actress and Josh Brolin in Best Supp. Actor? That would shake things up even more.
That said, Keaton, Norton, Stone and Cotillard are my favorite among the likely runner-ups.
Not to knock Redmayne’s performance, because it’s technically top-notch, but I am continually surprised at the dearth of My Left Foot mentions when covering his turn as Stephen Hawking. We’ve seen this done before. And better.
As much as I detested Birdman, a win for either Keaton or Norton would not piss me off (other than beating the superior Redmayne and Simmons).
Dah! I said this wrong: “It never occured to me that Bradley Cooper is now competing for Best Actor, since he wasn’t nominated for the SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA or Critics’ Choice”. Not what I meant. I’ve known since nomination day that Cooper was nominated, but I meant that NOW, this late in the Awards race. Not nominated until the last one.
It never occured to me that Bradley Cooper is now competing for Best Actor, since he wasn’t nominated for the SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA or Critics’ Choice. Although, he did win the Critics’ Choice for Best Actor in an Action Movie, for what that’s worth. But, thank you Ryan for pointing that out. 🙂
I’m still bummed that both Jake Gyllenhaal and David Oyelowo were passed over, but it is what it is.
I liked every performance in Into the Woods, but especially liked Anna Kendrick, Emily Blunt, and James Corden. I also think Emily Blunt was great in Edge of Tomorrow.
Maybe there’s still hope that Michael Keaton will win for Birdman, or Rosamund Pike will win for Gone Girl, but if there is, I’m not holding my breath.
A really great way of looking at these categories. What an almost (dare I say it) boring year this has turned put to be for the acting awards. Having said that though, an upset in any of these fields would be an atrocity. Still hoping Keaton edges out Redmane though.
I still believe Michael Keaton has a good chance to win. Julianne Moore is unbeatable.
overrated actor of the year : Eddie Redmayne.
overrated actress of the year: Felicity Jones
overrated movie of the year: The theory of everthing.