The Best Actor Race so Packed, Will Lead to Spillover in Supporting Category

In the latest update of Oscar Poker (Oscar Podcast is still ongoing), Jeff Wells and I talked about the packed Best Actor race and a strange phenomenon rising as a result.  With many films coming up that are considered “two handers,” as in, no clear lead but two co-leads, it seems as though the supporting actor slot will fill up quickly with roles that, under ordinary circumstances, might actually be leads. When a lead performance ends up in the supporting category, that performance has a great shot to win. Take Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock, for example, or Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind, Jim Broadbent in Iris and Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained.  A supporting role is traditionally along the lines of Cuba Gooding, Jr. in Jerry Maguire or Tommy Lee Jones in the Fugitive. Those kinds of roles will now be shunted to the side and bigger performances taking their place so that we will effectively have two Best Actor categories instead of lead and supporting.

Already we’ve seen Michael Caine and Harvey Keitel in Youth. That is your first two-hander, with Caine probably lead and Keitel placed in supporting, though both are leads.  Love & Mercy has Paul Dano and John Cusack sharing the co-lead but one will officially “go lead” — probably Cusack, and Dano, who is really the lead, will go supporting. The End of the Tour has Jesse Eisenberg and Jason Segel as co-leads but Eisenberg will go lead and Segel supporting. Spotlight, with Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton will have a similar problem, with two performances to put in the sorting hat, and Keaton most likely going supporting.

How packed is the Best Actor race?  Besides the two-handers, and starting from the top, you have Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant headed for possibly his first win, alongside his old acting pal, Johnny Depp for Black Mass, Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Tom Hardy in Legend, Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies, Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl, Tobey Maguire in Pawn Sacrifice, Joseph Gordon-Levitt in Snowden or The Walk, Bradley Cooper for Burnt (formerly Adam Jones).

We in the pundit world would make our predictions for the top five probably along these lines:

1. Leo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
3. Tom Hardy, Legend
4. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
5. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
6. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
7. Michael Caine, Youth
8. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

That’s at least 8 vying for the top five. And then, for supporting, it would likely go something like:

1. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
4. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
5. Harvey Keitel, Youth
6. Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

This is just a starting point, obviously. We have no idea what performances will crop up later. We have no idea which will be the most talked about, or whether the earlier performances will have a shot of remaining “in the conversation” by year’s end. What we do know is that Supporting Actor is likely going to be filled with leading performances, or co-leads.

Will the Academy expand the Best Actor race to match the Best Picture race? Best Actor is tied, more often than not, to Best Picture, especially nowadays when the stories about women are regarded as all but worthless. Will they address it or will they ignore it? They’ll probably ignore it. No one likes more than five in any category, and that includes Best Picture.

Venice, Telluride and Toronto will likely help carve out which names will rise to the top. Publicity will do the rest.