The Best Actor Race before New York Film Festival

Michael Caine plays a music composer nearing the end of his life in Paolo Sorrentino’s Youth. Caine and his co-star Harvey Keitel are answering some of life’s toughest questions as they head into the wilderness of old age that gives them precious few opportunities to create something. Is their best work behind them? Caine is a standout in a film of many performances and though he’s won two Oscars for supporting actor, Caine has never won for lead. That makes him a formidable contender not just for a nomination but for a win.

With his hard, lifeless stare, his committed menace, his rotten tooth and prosthetic pate, Johnny Depp is the performance to beat. As Whitey Bulger, Depp has enjoyed an unusual amount of publicity, from his “comeback” story, to Bulger protesting his cold-blooded portrayal. Depp disappears inside this menacing creature so that there isn’t any room left for his usual charm. Depp’s Bulger is a killer with a one-track mind. He slithers through his relationships, never attaching himself emotionally. He is in it for the power, no doubt, and there isn’t any room for common decency.

Michael Fassbender’s Steve Jobs is another brilliant turn by the versatile actor, this time playing the legendary asshole genius, Steve Jobs. If Mark Zuckerberg represented the early days of the social networking revolution, Jobs is Zuckerberg jacked up to 11, changing the way people use and buy computers, phones, and digital music. What kind of person has that kind of moxie? Ideas and ego — those two things must come in a blended cocktail inside the person’s brain. The ideas to get there and the ego to jam them through. Jobs puts nothing in front of his ideas, not his daughter, not his friendships. His confidence is off the charts. Steve Jobs is a movie about him getting a clue as to what life is really about just before we all know his cancer diagnosis is set arrive. The cancer will kill him. We know that too. But this isn’t that story. This is about the moment Jobs grew a heart. It’s a dazzler of a performance that feels like a continual punch to the stomach. Fassbender’s Jobs gives Depp’s Bulger a run for his money. Before the New York Film festival launches, it feels like it’s one of these for the win.

Eddie Redmayne is no doubt one of the strongest performers in The Danish Girl. But Redmayne won last year which puts his chances of winning way down the list. That shouldn’t stop him from getting recognition for his role as Lily, a transgender female, even if his co-star Alicia Vikander is getting almost as much acclaim, if not more, for her role.

If there is a fifth nominee at the moment prior to the upcoming festival films it would be Matt Damon in Ridley Scott’s best film in a long while, The Martian. It’s hard to remember a role better suited to Damon, or one he had that much room to express himself in so many different ways. The camera is right on him — he has to talk to his own video camera recording his experiences. He also comes face to face with possibly dying and even the funniest of quips can’t hold that at bay. Damon is just plain likable here, and though he doesn’t have that much of what voters seem to like in this category — torture and transformation — he nonetheless carries The Martian almost entirely.

Room will have to be made for Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, coming at the end of the year. It is that kind of performance and will be that kind of movie. This is probably going to be Leo’s best chance to finally earn some recognition for his stellar career because he presumably goes way, way down deep and back out the other side in his quest for survival in the snowy wilderness. There is also Tom Hanks in Bridge of Spies. Hanks has won two Best Actor Oscars back to back. No one knows what kind of performance he’ll be turning in here, working with his friend Steven Spielberg for the fourth time in a feature film. He’ll be joined at the the New York Film fest by Joseph Gordon-Levitt equipped with a French accent and high-wire walking in The Walk. Later in the year, Will Smith for Concussion.

There are many other male performances of note. Tom Hardy in Legend, Abraham Atta in Beasts of No Nation, Tobey Maguire in Pawn Sacrifice — not to mention the performances that are arguably lead but will “go supporting,” like Jason Segel as David Foster Wallace in The End of the Tour, and Paul Dano as Brian Wilson in Love & Mercy.

Then there are the actors from Spotlight, like Mark Ruffalo who is kind of supporting but will likely run as lead so that Michael Keaton can run in the supporting category. Other performances like that include Benicio Del Toro in Sicario who will likely be supporting, and Harvey Keitel in Youth. The supporting race will be as competitive, if not more competitive, than lead.

The new Wall Street movie The Big Short also has lead Christian Bale, and supporting Ryan Gosling and Steve Carell. It will unfold at the AFI Film fest. There is also Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight which will have either lead male performances or supporting. It’s difficult to tell at the moment.

Most people will look at the race as a showdown between Leonardo DiCaprio in the Revenant vs. Johnny Depp in Black Mass vs. Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs vs. Michael Caine in Youth vs someone totally unpredictable. No doubt the conversation will mutate and evolve as the weeks and months reveal themselves.