Oscar Predictions Friday – One of these Actors is Likely Winning an Oscar

This week’s Oscar predictions have folded in Steven Spielberg’s moody meditation on the Cold War, carefully and meticulously directed as only a master like Spielberg can. Every frame of Bridge of Spies is like a work of art. It seems like a film that will be recognized by many different branches. Partly because Spielberg is working with the his usual team of collaborators and they are the best in the business and partly because each designer in a Spielberg film is respected by his or colleagues in the field. Bridge of Spies should get recognized in Cinematography, Costume, Production Design and maybe score (John Williams is doing Star Wars this year so Thomas Newman orchestrates Spies).

The second thing that happened was the so-called “controversy” around Suffragette,which ultimately amounted to a misunderstanding all the way around. Either which way, the film has been branded (unfairly) as an ode to white feminism “about a racist suffragette.” No better way to sabotage a fledgling experiment that was produced, directed, written and starring ALL WOMEN. This is the way of things now. Somehow the internet has decided that its best method of activism is to tap out angry rants on social media. How this will impact Suffragette’s Oscar chances is not known. What we do know is that controversy does generally make voters shy away from films. Ultimately, if those same people mobilized to buy tickets and support films directed by women of color and starring women of color (how many bought a ticket to Beyond the Lights?) they could change things dramatically in Hollywood. In other words, help build, not destroy. Look at all that Ava DuVernay has accomplished with her production company and outreach program. Buy tickets to movies produced by AFFRM and you’ll be helping to build power for people of color in Hollywood.  Not as fun as a flashmob of angry tweets but hey.

The third thing that happened is Kitana Kiki Rodriguez and Mya Taylor have joined the race as potentially the first transgender actresses to compete in Lead and Supporting. It is not known whether this will fly with voters or not. It’s never easy breaking into the race if you’re a complete unknown. But the publicity around Tangerine might cause more than a little disruption.

After a second viewing of Danny Boyle’s wildly brilliant Steve Jobs, it suddenly seemed like Michael Fassbender could not lose. How could this be the same actor who battled sex addiction from a deep dark psychological hole in Shame, raped and beat Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave? Fassbender is a shape-shifter who seemed like an unlikely choice to play American icon Steve Jobs. And yet, Fassbender takes Steve Jobs where it needs to go — cut loose from reality and into surreality, into art. Fassbender’s Steve Jobs is not the one the Apple executives apparently knew. If you want a more realistic look at Steve Jobs, check out Alex Gibney’s film, Steve Jobs: The Man and the Machine. Fassbender’s Jobs, infused with Aaron Sorkin’s ongoing examination of the tech revolution on our culture and identity, has a head full of zingers, and a taste for blood. Fassbender is a revelation.

Fassbender is, at the moment, doing battle with two other actors. One hasn’t been seen yet and the other is Johnny Depp. Like Fassbender’s Jobs, Depp’s Whitey Bulger is based on the real guy, much to the objections of the real guy. Depp takes it to a different level, however, finding and showing the evil inherent in a man who cold kill anyone anytime he felt like it. He brought it right to the surface. Though Depp’s place in the internet tribe is to dismiss him because he’s too big of a star. But anyone who takes the craft of acting seriously can’t look away from this performance, with or without makeup.

Finally, the one with the heat on him is our man Leo DiCaprio potentially a Best Actor win. DiCaprio is one of the best actors of his generation who is slightly hamstrung by his good looks (like Depp, like Fassbender). DiCaprio was up against Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club and there was no way he could beat that performance.  Michael Keaton had the same problem last year up against Eddie Redmayne. A physical transformation almost always beats a great performance without the  transformation. But look at Leo in this trailer — there appears to be a physical transformation, even without losing forty pounds.

The only downside of Leonardo DiCaprio being the frontrunner sight unseen is that it’s sight unseen. Though it feel like all systems go at the moment, one never knows the ultimate fate of any film that hasn’t been seen. Even being “out there” doing lots of publicity doesn’t always make the difference between a nominee and a winner, but it sure helps. Look at how hard Julianne Moore had to campaign last year to finally win her much deserved and well overdue Oscar. Michael Keaton was out there as much as if not more than Eddie Redmayne but in the end, the transformation won out.

That brings up the question of which of these three actors will care enough about the game of Oscar to get in the trenches for the big win? Are they willing to hang out with the Broadcast Film Critics, for instance. Are they willing to do every interview and show up happy and smiling all the while? Is a guy like Johnny Depp going to do that? Probably not. Maybe. Would Leonardo DiCaprio? Would Michael Fassbender? Is the whole ugly part of campaigning for Oscar something these A-listers would rather skip? And can they win without doing that?

I remember when Sean Penn finally won his Oscar for Mystic River. Clint Eastwood had to sit him down and give him a talking to and tell him to put on a suit, smile and shake hands with people to charm them into a win. Did that make a difference? It’s hard to say. But any contender who wants to win has to make themselves available, at the very least, to people whose vote they seek. That’s true of the Hollywood Foreign Press and true of the Academy.

Other than these three frontrunners, who else is cracking the Oscar Best Actor category at the moment? Tom Hanks gives yet another strong performance in Bridge of Spies, effectively holding the film together. It is one of Hanks’ gifts to hold an entire film on just his insight into the reactions of those he’s acting with. Few actors are that intuitive. Hanks can play opposite any actor and up their game. This is especially true of Bridge of Spies. Hanks is a modern day Spencer Tracy, which is appropriate seeing as how they’re the only two actors to win back to back Oscars.

Eddie Redmayne does it again with The Danish Girl. His performance is likely to be diminished by the objections of transgender actors out there, maybe, and perhaps things will evolve at some point to give LGBTQ actors  the opportunities to star in films about themselves. We’re not there yet but that isn’t Redmayne’s fault. As an actor he digs deep to find and play Lili Elbe with sensitivity and authentic emotional depth. His chances of winning (as predicted by two Gold Derby pundits) is near impossible, being that he’d have to join that rare group of Tracy and Hanks. Not sure he’s quite there yet.

Michael Caine gives one of his better performances in Youth and is currently being predicted by one pundit at Gold Derby. Right now a win feels like a long shot, but for the “gold watch” set it’s not outside the realm of possibility, especially if the three frontrunner split up the vote. Love for Caine and Youth overall might drive him over the top. It’s important to remember who the Academy members are and more importantly how old many of them are. Their demographics are changing but they haven’t changed yet. This is a really wonderful film and Michael Caine is its emotional anchor.

Speaking of the “gold watch” set, Ian McKellan is hanging in there for his magnificent turn in Mr. Holmes. It’s a long shot but more because the film doesn’t have Best Picture heat, at least not right now. Best Actor is driven by Best Picture much of the time. That will be true for DiCaprio and Fassbender for sure. Black Mass is a dark horse contender for Best Picture but if they like Depp and they like the screenplay maybe it will get in for Picture.

Matt Damon holds The Martian together with so much likability you leave the theater feeling a kind of uplift you don’t really feel with any other film so far in the race. That makes him a potential nominee, though which actor would he bump? His inclusion would depend on how strong The Martian is overall with the Academy. I suspect it will be, but one never knows these things. I would have a hard time not putting Damon down on my ballot but alas, it’s not my choice.

It will be far outside the realm of Oscar pundits to talk in any serious way about Abraham Atta for his turn in Cary Fukunaga’s masterpiece, Beasts of No Nation. As the young kid who becomes a child soldier, confronts murder, repeatedly, and dehumanization. Atta displays much emotional range and is the bravest performer of any of the potential nominees. Yet, we know how this goes.

The Oscar race hasn’t even begun to take shape yet and won’t until all of the films have been seen and the awards start rolling in. Herewith, our Friday predictions.

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actress

Supporting Actress

Adapted screenplay

Original screenplay

Random predictions

Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions

Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. The Martian
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Carol
5. The Walk

Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Hateful Eight

Best documentary feature
1. He Named Me Malala
2. Going Clear
3. What Happened, Miss Simone?
4. Winter on Fire
5. The Look of Silence

Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight

Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany

Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars

Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars

Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight

Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea