One of the constant themes between the readers of this site and me is whether pixar’s breakout hit, Inside Out, will have a shot at being nominated for Best Picture. Kris Tapley and nine other Gold Derby pundits are currently predicting the film to get a nomination. Anne Thompson and I are two hold-outs, among others, in not predicting it. People keep asking me why or why not so I thought I would explain myself.
You ready? Okay, here goes. Beauty and the Beast shocked everyone and was nominated for Best Picture in 1992 when there were only five slots on the nomination ballot and five nominees for Best Picture. But Pixar was probably more responsible for the creation of that category which, frankly, took way too long to create. After Toy Story came out, there was talk continually about whether these great films that were coming out of animation studios could do what Beauty and the Beast did – take a slot in the Best Picture category away from the live action films. It wouldn’t be Pixar but Dreamworks that would win in the first ever animated feature category in 2001.
After 2003’s Finding Nemo, Pixar would win for The Incredibles, Ratatouille, Wall-E, Up, and Toy Story 3. When they have a great movie they dominate the field. The only time since Beauty and the Beast was nominated, however, that an animated movie cracked Best Picture was in 2009 and 2010, when the Academy had ten nomination slots and ten nominees.
In 2011, the Academy went back to five nomination slots, but still allowed for more than five nominees. The key to why I don’t think Inside Out will get in lies with the five slots for nominating. But before we move on to that, let’s consider the animated movies that were extraordinary by any measure that didn’t get in with five nomination slots – the big one is Wall-E.
In Inside Out’s favor, there hasn’t been a movie as good as Wall-E coming out of Pixar since they changed to five nomination slots, not one that would threaten to crack the Best Picture category anyway. To that end, Inside Out seems to have a much better chance than any film since 2011.
The other thing Inside Out has going for it is if it can get 300 #1 votes; you can’t even get on the ballot at all to make the cut if you aren’t named the Best Film of the Year by 300 Academy members. If they can get those 300 votes, there’s a good chance Inside Out can get in. That’s a big if unless you consider that the animation branch is around 300 and if they band together they might be able to mobilize and get those #1 votes.
I remain skeptical for three reasons. The first is that Inside Out is female driven. Academy members like male driven stories except for Beauty and the Beast. Inside Out is brilliant beyond words and a very very good film but it is still about the inside of a girl’s head.
The second reason is that The Good Dinosaur is already on track to beat Inside Out’s $354 million take at the box office. What an astounding number for Inside Out but you have to admit it would be better for the film’s Oscar chances if it remained the highest grossing animated film (at the very least) of the year.
The third reason is that its inclusion would be dependent upon every other movie coming up, those that haven’t been seen and predicted already, to fail.
We can’t go any higher than nine. It would be a fluke if it got to ten but you have to ask Ryan or Marshall Flores to explain to you why because I do not understand.
Let’s look at what we think will be nominated so far:
1. The Martian – seems like a lock at the moment but time will have to tell.
2. Spotlight – seems like a slam dunk.
3. Steve Jobs – ditto
4. Bridge of Spies – looks stronger by the day
5. Room – winning hearts plus won the audience award at Toronto
6. Brooklyn – I’m going to guess this one becomes many voters’ favorite film of the year.
7. Carol – still a strong possibility.
Now we have to make room for what’s coming next:
1. The Revenant
2. Joy
3. The Big Short
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Concussion
6. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
7. By the Sea
To pick Inside Out, six of these will have to go. And even if they did go, would they be replaced by Inside Out or one of the other fringe dwellers, like The Danish Girl, Mad Max, Suffragette, Black Mass or Love & Mercy?
Why would a voter choose an animated film for their mere five slots when they know Inside Out is not only going to get nominated in the animated category but will probably win?
Here is your chance to make your best argument as to why you think it will get in.