Best Actor: Bryan Cranston and Trumbo Take a Seat at the Table

It’s interesting that this year’s SAG awards showed that the nominating committee, those 2,000 randomly chosen voters, definitely chose to go outside the reach of film critics when they picked many of the contenders. This surprised many in the awards-watching community because usually voters are more “plugged in” to film reviews and thus have an idea of how a movie is “playing.” Then again, maybe they don’t. Helen Mirren and Sarah Silverman’s nominations were both surprising to many of us. But perhaps most surprising of all was Trumbo’s rise to prominence in this stage of the race. You’d never know it was headed for the big show if you’d have been paying attention to the critics, as we all were. Charlotte Rampling was always a possibility, though looking at it now most of the other nominees are true “insiders” to the LA film and TV crowd. Rampling clearly isn’t. You just never know what mix of actors you’re going to get with that random selection.

The New York Times flat out panned Trumbo, and the majority of critics elsewhere were not wowed by the film — not in the way they have been wowed by other films in the race that didn’t make it into SAG ensemble, like Carol or even Brooklyn, or Room. It’s interesting, because none of this mattered to the actors at all. Although Trumbo did not go on to earn a Best Picture Drama nomination at the Golden Globes announcement this morning, the heft and power of the actors branch is definitely going to help push Bryan Cranston into that fifth slot for Best Actor. And Helen Mirren seems like she’s headed for a supporting nomination.

It probably is for the best, given the state of film criticism today, where it has come to be so dominated by one kind of taste — that would be the taste of your average white male, age 29 up to about 55. That’s who films have to impress. The industry is saying with the SAG nomination – sorry, but we ain’t buying it. We liked these films, or we want to support these actors and these projects. It’s an interesting dynamic. The Critics Choice nominations are coming on Monday, and then the AFI will announce on the 16th. Little by little, bit by bit, an acceptable consensus will emerge. But Oscarwatchers might find themselves not relying as much on reviews to steer the race anymore.

The Best Actor race is wide open. There seems to be a kind of consensus, that is, three at least seem to be hitting the various tastes out there – Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl. It still seems likely that Matt Damon will get in for The Martian except that he didn’t get a SAG nomination, which may make it harder. The opposite happened to Johnny Depp for Black Mass. He got a SAG nod but not a Golden Globe nomination from a group that has always seemed to like Johnny Depp a lot, considering. All things being equal, SAG is more reliable. We also have Steve Carell for The Big Short potentially taking a spot, and of course, Christian Bale who is either lead or supporting, depending on who you talk to. But Bryan Cranston also seems like a sure bet now. He’s been named in both places, with a SAG ensemble nod to boot. In fact, Bryan Cranston is the only lead actor at SAG with a corresponding ensemble nomination. That makes Cranston not only a slam dunk nominee but a potential winner.

So, Best Actor is looking to be something like:

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, the Martian vs. Johnny Depp for Black Mass vs. Steve Carell for The Big Short (or is it Bale?)

Will Eddie Redmayne continue to ride along with a solid lock for a nomination? It seems like it. Same goes for Fassbender and Steve Jobs although it’s conceivable either or could be replaced by someone else, depending upon the Academy’s actors branch’s unique taste.

What potential outliers could rise in the interim? There can be surprise names read from late breakers. Or, a film could be so popular with the Academy it pushes through one of the actors, whether he’s been previously noticed or not. Will Smith for Concussion is one such possibility, or even Ian McKellen, even though he hasn’t been nominated yet in lead.

Here are our charts and please take our poll at the end of the post!

Actor Comparison Charts