Best Picture Stat Game: The Big Short and Spotlight Head for the Win

It’s Christmas, but for some reason my head is on the stats of Oscar season. Two things have happened so far, probably not many are thinking about. One is that 39 of the past 45 years of Globes and Oscar history the eventual Best Picture winner has received a Globe nomination for Best Screenplay. We already know that this year only Spotlight and The Big Short have Globe screenplay nominations and SAG ensemble nominations. The former is actually a more reliable stat because we’re talking 45 years of history with only 6 mismatches.

Which films didn’t get a Globe screenplay nom and still won Best Picture?

1970 — Patton
1981 — Chariots of Fire
1989 — Driving Miss Daisy
2000 — Gladiator
2003 — Return of the King
2004 — Million Dollar Baby

All of the films that didn’t get a screenplay nomination at the Globes in the years since the SAG Ensemble Award was created have gotten a SAG Ensemble nomination. Thus, we’re looking at a pretty solid stat. Chances are, Forrest Gump, Driving Miss Daisy and Patton would have gotten a SAG ensemble nomination, and pretty sure Chariots of Fire would have, although one never knows.

Barring some kind of freak occurrence — this is how I have arrived at there being only two top possibilities for Best Picture: Spotlight and The Big Short.

Add the next rule, which is that since 2004 no late-breaking movie has ever won Best Picture and that kind of poses an obstacle The Big Short, unless that stat is about to go out the window, too, which it certainly will sooner or later. On the other hand, winning the Los Angeles Film Critics for Best Picture is actually a negative, given the very long odds for winning both the LAFCA and the Oscar. Perversely enough, not winning any critics awards is a positive for The Big Short.

Both Spotlight and The Big Short are true stories about corruption within established institutions. Both films are strong on their ensemble cast. One is an original screenplay — so it should have no problem winning that category at the WGA. The other is adapted, meaning it will split off in the other direction and may win the WGA and the USC Scripter.

We already knew Spotlight was the film to beat, but now there is definitive proof, unless you think stats are kind of pointless — they’re reliable until suddenly they’re not. Sooner or later, they’re broken.

One thing to note — three other movies have SAG Ensemble nominations: Beasts of No Nation, Trumbo and Straight Outta Compton. They have a better chance, probably, than the three others that have Globe noms: Hateful Eight, Steve Jobs and Room — although any of them theoretically COULD win and break the stat.

Just a little treat for your Christmas stocking.